Global Economic System Research Articles

ЭКОНОМИКО-МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ РЕТРОСПЕКТИВНЫХ СОБЫТИЙ (ВЕРИФИКАЦИЯ ТЕЗИСА М.И. ТУГАН-БАРАНОВСКОГО ОБ ИНДИКАТИВНЫХ СВОЙСТВАХ ЦЕН НА ЖЕЛЕЗО)

The problem of improving economic forecasting systems remains unresolved and is critically important for ensuring economic growth and sustainability of the global economic system in the future. M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky suggested that the dynamics of prices for iron, which is the main component of the production of means of production, can become an indicator of the economic situation. This assumption formed the basis of a study conducted using the Infoanalytic software package based on the methodology of soft mathematical measurements and a regularizing Bayesian approach. The results of the verification of the idea of an outstanding Russian economist are presented in this article.

Методичний підхід до оцінки інвестиційної привабливості залізничної галузі України

The article defines problems and prospects of an approach to assessing the investment attractiveness of the railway industry of Ukraine and its structural subdivisions. It is noted that modernization and overtaking pace of development of the railway industry of Ukraine is a necessary prerequisite for socioeconomic development of both the country in general and its regions in particular. To achieve the growth rates, as an objective necessity is considered the strategic management of the industry, allowing to better defining the prospects for sectoral potential, which is especially important in the context of the cyclical development of the global economic system. The key factor in the efficiency of strategic management of the railway industry is attracting investment from private investors, that is, the strategic basis for the consistent development of this type of transport consists in the implementation of large-scale investments. It is concluded that one of the further important conditions for improving the efficiency of the railway industry of Ukraine is the availability of an effective investment policy that would allow increasing the investment potential of the industry and increasing its investment attractiveness. The investment attractiveness of railways should be assessed taking into account the main factors of their production, financial and economic condition, the importance of each factor, and its compliance with a certain level determined by the investor. This makes it possible to determine the indicator both for railway transport in general and in the context of types of activities, businesses, and individual divisions of railways. An objective assessment of the investment attractiveness of the Ukrainian railway industry allows a potential investor to make an informed managerial decision on the feasibility of investing available funds in the development of the industry without a significant risk of losing them or not receiving the expected amount of investment income. Prospect for further research should be a quantitative assessment of individual indicators that can be used as parameters of the production, financial and economic status of railway transport in assessing its investment attractiveness and determining the degree of their importance.

Удосконалення обліку інвестиційної діяльності підприємства

The aim of the article is to study the current state of carrying out the investment and its impact on the formation of data on the investment activity of enterprise in the accounting system. In accordance with the set goal, the study solved the following tasks: systematize, closer define and supplement the theoretical foundations of investment policy at enterprises; identify current problems of investment policy at enterprises; propose scientific and practical ways to improve the accounting of investment activity of enterprise. During the analysis, systematization and generalization of scientific works of numerous scholars, the need for a comprehensive study of this issue was determined. As a result of the study, a scheme of dependence of the level of risk on the type of investment has been composed, the factors influencing the level of development of the investment policy of enterprise have been considered, the constituent elements of the accounting policy of investment activity of enterprise have been analyzed. Prospects for further research in this direction are to improve the accounting of investment activities of enterprises in any sector of the national economy, given that a new stage of Ukraine’s integration into the European and world communities has begun. Ensuring Ukraine’s integration into the modern global economic system as a technologically developed country with an appropriate level of development of investment policy in the industrial sector and an ensured accounting of investment activities should become a top national priority.

FORECASTING OF ECONOMIC RISKS IN THE CONTEXT OF STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS

Despite the non-coordinated trends of technological modernization of various sectors of the economy, the problem of structural reforms of the economy has not yet been resolved. The continued instability of the global economic system and the uncertainty about its development prospects, combined with the decrease in resources available to the state, and the decrease in profitability in the production sectors, make it more difficult to predict the future. The high interest rates of loans given to non-financial organizations also make it difficult to solve the priority problems of the development of the industrial branches of the economy. There is a slowdown in the growth rate of loans to non-financial organizations, as well as a decrease in investments in fixed assets. The programs implemented in the high-tech industry and services sector, although they contribute to the rapid development of the relevant sectors of the economy, are still not able to contribute to the rapid growth of the GDP due to the still underdeveloped nature of the mentioned sectors and insufficiently high competitiveness of their products.

ДИСПРОПОРЦИИ МИРОВОЙ ВАЛЮТНОЙ СИСТЕМЫ В КОНТЕКСТЕ ВНЕШНИХ ФАКТОРОВ РАЗВИТИЯ РОССИЙСКОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ

The modern processes of fragmentation of the world economic space are considered through the prism of the struggle for the redistribution of rental income flows at the mega-economic level. The main attention is paid to the problems of financial rent formation. In this regard, the question of the mechanisms of transformation of natural resource rent into financial rent is raised. Financial rent is considered as a tool for redistributing part of the world’s gross value added in favor of the “golden billion”. A comparative analysis of the specific weights of national currencies in world foreign exchange reserves, in international calculations and the real contribution of national economies to world GDP is carried out. The problem of the dominance of the US dollar in the global monetary and financial system is associated with the predetermination of economic crises and their depth in peripheral and semi-peripheral countries and, in particular, with the functioning of the mechanism of exported inflation. The information base of the study is the data of the World Bank, the IMF, SWIFT. The assessment of the concentration of economic power in the global financial market was made using the Herfindahl–Hirschman index. The disproportions of the global economic system are estimated using the Gallagher disproportionality index, traditionally used in political science, but also applicable in economic research.

Приоритетные направления оптимизации процессов цифровизации международной торговли

Digitalization of the global economic system in general and cross-border trade, in particular, has become particularly relevant due to the difficult economic situation in the world caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019. As a result, online commerce has taken a leading position in the movement of goods using the Internet telecommunications network. In connection with the above, it can be concluded that the topic of digitalization of crossborder trade in goods is relevant today and occupies a leading position in the field of further development of remote information and communication technologies. In the presented article, the author comprehensively examines the actual problematic aspects of the processes of digitalization of international trade in modern political and socio-economic conditions, and also identifies possible directions for optimizing these processes.

УПРАВЛІННЯ ОНЛАЙН-ЛОЯЛЬНІСТЮ СПОЖИВАЧА ЯК ОБ’ЄКТИВНА УМОВА АДАПТИВНОГО РОЗВИТКУ ПІДПРИЄМСТВА ТОРГІВЛІ В УМОВАХ ЦИФРОВІЗАЦІЇ

Ukraine's integration into the global economic system raises the issue of adaptive development of each business entity in all areas of activity, among which trade enterprises play a predominant role. In the information society, the Internet is transforming from a communication channel into an environment for consumers to stay and interact. Knowledge of the level of consumer loyalty and the determinants of consumer choice is key to determining the prospects and opportunities for development, as it allows forming a theoretical basis for determining certain levers of adaptation and understanding how to increase consumer loyalty to achieve the desired state of the trade enterprise. The art of managing the adaptive development of a trade enterprise in modern conditions is to harmonise business with digital transformations. The management of a trade enterprise should adequately assess the potential of adaptive development in terms of opportunities to increase the level of online consumer loyalty. The study defines the essence of digital business transformation and notes the need for appropriate adaptation of business processes in accordance with the requirements and needs of modern consumers in the implementation of processes of adaptation of a trade enterprise to modern transformations. The article develops a circular model of adaptation of enterprise activity in accordance with the requirements and requests of the consumer, the main stages of which are as follows: analysis of the actual state of a trade enterprise → formation of a development strategy and development of alternative plans (optimistic, realistic and optimistic) → design of a new generation operational business model → changes and adaptation of business processes. A system of factors influencing the formation of online consumer loyalty has been formed as a basis for the formation of a successful adaptation strategy for enterprise development and building adaptive models of enterprise behaviour in the market. An approach to managing online consumer loyalty is proposed, which allows not only to determine the direction of adaptive development of a trade enterprise, but also creates an opportunity to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the value proposition (product, pricing and communication policies, website and staff usability), optimise consumer efforts in terms of: collecting information about the product, selecting, processing and delivering the product and its consumption, which will contribute to the formation of a positive consumer experience, increase trust in the retailer and the level of customer satisfaction.

Globalni stagflatorni pritisci - makroekonomske reperkusije pandemijske i geopolitičke krize

This paper analyses key macroeconomic repercussions of the global pandemic and geo-political crises in terms of growing recessionary and inflationary pressures, and finally, the potential occurrence of stagflation. The aim of this paper is to primarily analyse the stagflation shocks of the 70s, afterwards, compare them with the current crisis for the period January 2020 - July 2022 using the example of selected developed economies (USA, Germany and France). Using descriptive analysis, it was shown that in the observed period inflationary and recessionary pressures existed in USA, Germany and France. However, those pressures could not be identified as stagflation, since that were not present simultaneously. Namely, during the pandemic crisis, recessionary pressures were present, since then the GDP growth decreased till first quarter of 2021 in analysed economies, while inflation rates were stable. On the other hand, with the recovery of economies in the second quarter of 2021, inflationary pressures became stronger and intensified by geo-political crisis. Therefore, it seems that the most visible anomaly of the global economic system in 2022 is the presence of inflationary pressures.

MECHANISM OF GLOBAL MARKETS: DEVELOPMENT, FUNCTIONING AND TRENDS

The work examines the mechanism of global markets, their development, functioning and trends. The study reveals the theoretical basis of the global market by means of its structuring. The work highlights the features of the global market sectors, the mechanism of the global market was built taking into account the global economy. In today's environment, all aspects of life are undergoing globalization over time. Thanks to global processes, the transformation and transition of the international system into the global one, in this case, the transformation of the international market into the global market, takes place. The study of issues related to the global economy is quite relevant in modern society, and this leads to the increased development of global markets, their formation and effective functioning. Global markets are the dominant functional structures of the modern global economic system.

“West” and “East” in the Global Economic System: Facing a New Bipolarity

The global economic crisis intensifies against the backdrop of inefficient actions of international organizations and individual states. As a result, there is a change in the balance of the world economy. The unipolar economic system is being replaced by a bipolar system that divides the world into the West (USA) and the East (China). In this regard, the problem of economic confrontation between the two powers and smoothing out the imbalance in the world economy due to the collapse of the monopolar world order becomes a relevant problem. This study is devoted to the analysis of the compliance of the Chinese economy with all the characteristics of a leader compared with the US economy. For this purpose, the problem of the competitiveness of the Chinese financial system has been studied. Based on the case study, the development of the Chinese financial market was analyzed in comparison with the US. The main finding is that the role of the Yuan in the international exchange market is insignificant and accounts for 4.3% of the total turnover. In addition, the Yuan is not widely used globally as a reserve currency, although the Yuan has been included in the SDR basket. The general conclusion is that without a freely convertible Yuan and free float, China’s financial system will not be able to compete with the US. Accordingly, China will not be able to become a full-fledged second pole in the global economic system.

COVID-19 as a Catalyst of Food Security Crisis. Whether the Existing System of Agriculture Can Remain the Same

From 2019 to 2022, since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global percentage of hunger rose by 150 million people, which is 10% of the world population. At the same time, one-third of food is thrown away because it cannot reach the final consumer. Climate change, natural catastrophes, wars leading to humanitarian crises are the main and ongoing causes of hunger. COVID-19 acted as an accelerator of processes that exacerbate the food security crisis, to which import-dependent countries are especially sensitive. Quarantine that was introduced as a tool to combat the spread of the COVID-19 acted as a catalyst of social, economic, political, ecological, and food crisis that is displayed in the global economic system and in agriculture – its subsystem. At first glance, the increase in the percentage of starving populations on the planet is explained by poverty and the inability to purchase basic food products; a rise in prices was caused by breaks in logistics chains, the increase in the price of energy carriers, and economic shifts caused by the lockdown. In practice, despite the constantly growing volumes of global production of agro-industrial products, the balance between demand and supply of products that ensure the world's food security has been disturbed. The research problem lies in the insufficient determination of intangible causes of hunger, other than those caused by poverty and social inequality. The aim of the research is to show the prospects of the aggravation the food security crisis due to excess of food demand over supply, and to propose theoretical ways out of the crisis. The quantitative method of panel data research was used to prepare the article. The visualization method was used to simplify the perception of the proposed array of information. It is possible to overcome such social problems as hunger, poverty, climate and ecology problems caused by the increase in the temperature on the planet's surface, ocean pollution, and soil degradation only through adaptation and achieving synergy between the planet’s ecosystems. Agriculture as a main factor of food security should be transformed through implementing principles of climate-optimized agriculture and blue economy (use of ocean resources) as a source of “blue food” to achieve food sustainability.

The Problem of Asymmetric Development of the Global Financial Market

The transformation of the modern global monetary and financial system involves the elimination of institutional and functional contradictions existing at various levels. Some contradictions arose as a result of the asymmetric development of the global financial market (GFM). The aim of the article is to substantiate the asymmetry of the GFM development as an organic phenomenon, which, on the one hand, becomes a serious obstacle to the functioning and progressive development of the world economy, and, on the other hand, is the driving force behind this development. The authors apply general logical, theoretical, empirical, and special research methods. The origins of the asymmetric development of the GFM are determined. Endogenous and exogenous factors of GFM asymmetry were revealed. The article considers examples of asymmetry in various GFM segments. The negative impact of the global financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009 and the coronavirus pandemic on increasing the asymmetry of the GFM development has been determined. Based on the analysis of the key macroeconomic indicators of the top 20 countries in terms of GDP, the asymmetric nature and the absence of stable patterns that determine the country’s position in the world ranking are revealed. The authors conclude that the asymmetry of the GFM development is an organic phenomenon, caused by a wide range of causes of endogenous and exogenous nature. Endogenous asymmetries can be partially compensated either through complete economic isolation, which is likely to lead to a slowdown in development and lagging behind other countries in the future or through active involvement in a system of world economic relations based on fair partnerships. Exogenous asymmetry, due to the peculiarities of the historically established world order, is destructive for all participants in the global economic system, including those whose interests must be protected in the first place.

Routes to a Resilient European Union, edited by Antonina Bakardjieva Engelbrekt, Per Ekman, Anna Michalski, and Lars Oxelheim. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. XI, 262 pp. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93165-0

At the present stage of geopolitical confrontation, the resilience of the political system of the EU is based on the position that the formation of a single social and institutional space allows EU member states to compete more successfully within the global economic system. In the practice of supranational regulation of economic integration, a set of methodological approaches has developed today, where the central place is occupied by the principles of removing barriers to trade within the integration bloc and to the implementation of agreed economic specialization. The most important competitive advantage of regional economic integration is the growth of the global competitiveness of the most efficient enterprises and sectors of the economy of the EU member states due to the spatial expansion of sales markets and the growth of trade.
 This book summarizes that the only way to integrate in the current conditions remains integration at different speeds, with an individual approach to each new participating country. The end result of the concept of Europe at different speeds is the accession of all participating countries to the leading group, since all members of the integration group pursue common goals and wish to achieve them by common efforts. The sooner all participating countries find themselves in the same plane of economic and political coordinates, the sooner the set goals will be achieved and key tasks will be solved.

CHINA’S FINANCIAL RISE AND RAMIFICATIONS FOR UNITED STATES OF AMERICA’S PETRODOLLAR HEGEMONY

This article examines the pattern where China’s growing global economic influence in post-9/11 era has been complimented with the gradual and sustained rise of its monetary cooperation, competition as well as conflicts with United State of America (USA). While chronicling the Neoliberal and advanced capitalist arguments regarding the current international economic order and financial infrastructure led by the USA; this article refines the focuses on the global monetary system and the role of monetary coercion and builds a critical approach by engaging with Realist, Leftist-Marxist and antiimperialist theorisations with the objective to analyse the nature of cooperation and confrontation between the two states. The methodology employed is qualitative and interpretive supported with analysis of empirical data to substantiate the theoretical claims. It is argued that the rise of Chinese currency is related to these oft-recurring financial trends, which lie at the core of USA’s global economic system and the related global financial conflicts have the potential to fundamentally transform the global economic order. The paper concludes that China’s internationalisation of its currency is likely to intensify its confrontation with US with the potential for international conflict.

Global Structural Shocks and FDI Dynamic Impact on Productive Capacities: An Application of CS-ARDL Estimation

The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted structural shocks on the global economic system by raising high economic uncertainty. Policymakers are exploring alternative measures and incentivizing foreign direct investment for the restoration of global economic operations to achieve short- and long-term growth. Given this, the study examines the global response of FDI inflow to measure the change in productive capacity. The productive capacity is proxied by structural change, private business sector, institutional quality, transportation infrastructure development, and natural capital. The study implements empirical analysis for a large panel of 170 countries in a data set from 2000 to 2021. Furthermore, the study employed the cross-sectional augmented auto-regressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) econometric estimation method for better examinations of current changes in an economic outbreak. From the results of the study, the estimations reveal that FDI inward has significant positive impact over the private business sector, institutional quality, transportation infrastructure, and natural capital on inward FDI. In accordance with discussions, the study suggests several pragmatic policy implications to achieve maximum output by utilizing the inward FDI as incentivized by the governments of the selected countries.

Sticking to the status quo with a twist: Western media representations of fiscal negotiations during the Greek economic crisis

In a volatile global economic system, the need for comprehensive media portrayal of economic crises intensifies. Crises expose the deficiencies of existing financial systems and present opportunities for structural change, but media coverage consistently promotes hegemonic structures. During the Great Recession of 2008, media narratives of Greek and foreign newspapers represented Greece's debt crisis as a national problem rather than a systemic problem. This study examines newspaper coverage of the Greek economic crisis in the summer of 2015 to explore whether the lack of comprehensive coverage persisted in the aftermath of the Great Recession. A qualitative content analysis of legacy newspapers suggests the press has become more rigorous in interpreting the underlying mechanisms of a crisis instead of solely covering episodic events, but with a caveat: most analysis comes from editorials. The findings indicate that financial systems are portrayed as unmalleable institutions.

Logistics Costs for Seaborne Trade in Nigeria: An Empirical Study

Seaports are fundamentally connectivity points in the global economic system, especially container ports, which are supportive and well-connected to major global trade routes. Regular and dependable services from shipping are critical to lowering the costs of trade, particularly transportation expenses, integrating supply chains, and enabling global trade. For Nigeria, trade costs seem to be an impediment to international trade development, and improving trade logistics performance is crucial to enhancing nations' trade acceptability. Field surveys were conducted in some selected seaports and outward environments, and hypotheses were examined in order to assess the cost-effectiveness and efficiency of the ports' facilities and activities. The result revealed that logistics costs, customs effectiveness, quality of infrastructure, government policies, and logistics service deliveries have significant effects on the development of seaborne trade in Nigeria. Therefore, institutional improvements will lower logistics costs, providing opportunities to expand seaborne trade, and benefit consumers worldwide through competitive freight costs.

HIGH QUALITY DEVELOPMENT OF THE CHINA PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR AND RECONSTRUCTION OF THE GLOBAL GOVERNANCE SYSTEM

In order to cope with the unprecedented changes in a century, the "Belt and Road" Initiative (BRI) co-construction project with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as the flagship has become an important carrier for economic growth and reconstruction of the global industrial chain and supply chain, which is leading the reconstruction of the global economic governance system. Anatomy of the internal relationship between the high-quality development of CPEC and global economic governance, analysis of the important value of the corridor to the stable development of regional economic society and its internal driving force for stable and long-term development, and clarification of the internal mechanism of corridor investment operation and the global industrial chain and supply chain reconstruction will help to further promote the co-construction of BRI and provide useful reference for building an open, linked and more inclusive world economy and jointly building Human Community with a Shared Future with political mutual trust, economic integration and cultural tolerance

THE PROPOSED WTO AGREEMENT ON INVESTMENT FACILITATION FOR DEVELOPMENT (AIFD): AN APPRAISAL

Being an indispensable part of an open and effective global economic system, foreign direct investment (FDI) has a significant impact on development for any country. This is particularly important for the developing countries and the Least Developed countries (LDCs) due to their dependence on FDI for development financing. Accordingly, they try to attract FDI by taking different investor-friendly measures. On the other hand, foreign investors often complain about their challenges, mostly regulatory and institutional impediments in making investments and operating business activities in the host countries. In such a context, the idea of developing a multilateral framework for facilitating investment namely the Agreement on Investment Facilitation for Development (AIFD) was conceived by some members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), particularly from the developing countries. The framework is aimed at improving the investment and business climate in the host countries by providing foreign investors with a transparent, predictable and efficient regulatory and administrative set-up in the host states. Though the proposed AIFD pledges to contribute to the development of the contracting State parties by facilitating worldwide inflow of FDI through creating conducive environment for foreign investors, the true implication of adopting this multilateral instrument remains doubtful. As such, the paper aims at examining the potential contribution of the proposed WTO multilateral framework to the development of the state parties, when adopted finally. The paper comes to the conclusion that the proposed framework, AIFD, is hardly capable of contributing to the development of the state parties.

The Future of the Energy Sector and the Global Economy: Prosumer Capitalism and What Comes Next

This paper describes the present and the future of the energy sector in relation to the dominant and constantly evolving form of the global economic system. These considerations have their starting point in transformations of the energy sector in prosumer capitalism, which has dramatically changed the picture of the global economy in recent years. Subsequently, a futuristic approach is applied to determine the role and importance of energy from renewable sources for further human development. The main objective of the paper is to explain the current situation of the energy sector in prosumer capitalism and to extrapolate these relationships for the future, considering the need to enter the path of sustainable development to eliminate the global warming processes and climate changes. A review of the existing scientific literature was applied as the research method. The historical wave concept, proposed by Toffler, was found to be highly useful because of its high potential in futurology, where it enables one to study megatrends. The Fourth Wave was linked to prosumer capitalism, and it provided the base for defining the next ones: the Fifth Wave of Computing (ecosocialism) and the Sixth Wave in the form of technological and energy communism (solar communism). It also turned out that the key to solving mankind’s energy problems lies in the global mean entropy budget. The literature review shows that founding the global energy system on solar radiation is the only known method for eliminating the anthropogenic greenhouse effect, which is the source of global warming and, consequently, of climate change. Therefore, the second law of thermodynamics provides a physical, economic, and logical justification for introducing a new and ultimate management form—solar communism—by 2050.