Global Economic Recession Research Articles

THE EFFECT OF STARCHITECT’S DESIGN ON HOUSING IMAGE ACCORDING TO RESIDENTS' PERCEPTION

The development of residential real estate in Indonesia continues to grow. Although it cannot be denied that the current global economic recession affect the property business, housing development must continue to grow in order to accommodate the population demand. The recent economic conditions make housing developers have to make various innovations for convincing the public to buy their housing units. One of the innovations carried out is to recruit famous architects to collaborate in designing their housing. There are those who collaborate to design housing units in their housing clusters, but there are also those who collaborate since the creation of masterpaln to housing units. Of course, with the hope of cooperating with famous architects will be able to make their housing more pretentious, preferred by consumers, and ultimately bought by consumers.While on the community side, what do they expect by buying a house in housing designed by a well-known architect? Is it because of prestige, is it because of other things? This phenomenon is what makes researchers interested in finding out what the influence of a famous architect on the image of a housing in the eyes of the public.The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the design of starchitect.

Effect of Abnormal Earnings on Earnings Persistence: The Case of Shipping and Shipbuilding Industry

Even though shipping and shipbuilding industries have been one of the leading industries in Korea, both industries have been suffered a long dark period since the global financial crisis 2008. In particular, since both industries are more sensitive to economic fluctuations than other industries, stable earnings are an important factor in stakeholders’ economic decision-making. This study investigates the difference of earnings persistence between shipping and shipbuilding industry using Ohlson’s model. Empirical results show that earnings persistence of shipbuilding industry is significantly higher than that of shipping industry. This result implies that the low earnings persistence of the shipping industry result from the global economic recession after the 2008 global financial crisis and government policies focused on the shipbuilding industry. On the other hand, the high earnings persistence of the shipbuilding industry can be attributed to high added value ship orders, intensive support from the government and economies of scale after the global financial crisis. In the case of the shipbuilding industry, high technology and ship quality are important factors for high earnings creation while in the shipping industry, intangible factors such as cargo service quality, route, and creditworthiness of cargo transportation are important factors for continuous earnings creation. In addition, the balance of government policies on the shipping and shipbuilding industries is expected to bring about shared growth between the two main industries in Korea.

The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Iranian Oil and Gas Industry Planning: A Survey of Business Continuity Challenges

The Covid-19 pandemic has severely affected various aspects of life, and its compounding and cascading impacts have been observed in most industries and firms. The oil and gas (O&G) industry was among the first to experience the impacts as the pandemic began due to the global economic recession and a sharp decline in demand for oil. The pandemic revealed major risk management and business continuity challenges and uncovered some of the vulnerabilities of the O&G industry and its major companies during a prolonged global disaster. Examining and understanding how the Covid-19 pandemic impacted the O&G sector in different countries, considering their unique circumstances, can provide important lessons for managing the current and future similar events. This study investigated various impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on the O&G industry using Iran’s Pars Oil and Gas Company (POGC) as a case study. Data were collected through in-depth interviews with key managers of the company. Qualitative methods, specifically thematic analysis, were used to analyze the data. Findings of this study provide further insights into how the pandemic impacted the operations, risks, and business continuity of the POCG. The results show that the pandemic caused significant operational, financial, and legal impacts by disrupting routine maintenance, reducing the availability of human resources under the public health measures and mobility restrictions, increasing processing and delivery times, increasing costs and decreasing revenues, and delaying contractual obligations.

WHAT CHANGED IN THE PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS OF ENTERPRISES IN THE PRE-COVID-19 / COVID-19 PERIOD EVALUATION OF THE SURVEY RESULTS OF SWORN-IN CERTIFIED PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS OF ISTANBUL

Purpose- The purpose of this study is to identify what has changed on the enterprises’ problems and solution proposals pre and during the COVID-19 period. In this context, the problem and solution proposals obtained from the "Chamber of Sworn-In Certified Public Accountant of Istanbul Economy Expectation Index and Encountered Problems and Solution" survey were evaluated on basis of sectors. Methodology- The survey used in the study has been applied quarterly since 2017 to 13 different sectors and more than 300 enterprises. In April 2020, the survey was applied as a COVID-19 thematic survey. In this study, the results of the pandemic thematic survey and the results applied in the 2019-2021 periods were compared using frequency breakdowns for 8 sectors. Findings- According to the findings, it was stated that serious losses occurred due to the exchange rate risks due to the problems experienced with the fluctuation of the exchange rate. In addition, the global economic recession has become one of the important problems of enterprises that have problems in terms of equity capital. While the profitability ratios decreased due to the contraction in demand and increase in costs, it was observed that enterprises with increasing credit costs had difficulties in accessing appropriate financing. Conclusion- According to the study, it has been demonstrated that sectors appear new problems in the pandemic. Hence, sectors' problems should be considered on a preferential basis by public authorities. It has been considered incentive that is applied by the public authority will have a great influence on enterprises. Keywords: Covid-19, sectoral problems, encountered problems and solution proposals. JEL Codes: P00, M21, M29

Prediction of crude oil prices in COVID-19 outbreak using real data

The world has been undergoing a global economic recession for almost two years because of the health crisis stemming from the outbreak and its effects have still continued so far. Especially, COVID-19 reduced consumer spending due to social isolation, lockdown and travel restrictions in 2020. As a result of this, with social and economic life coming to a standstill, oil prices plummeted. With the ongoing uncertainty concerning the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been of great importance for all economic agents to predict crude oil prices. The objective of this paper is to improve a model in order to make more accurate predictions for crude oil price movements. The performance of this model is assessed in terms of some significant criteria comparing our model with its counterparts as well as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machine (SVM) methods. As for these criteria, root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) results show that this model outperforms other models in forecasting crude oil prices. Further, the simulation results for 2021 show that the daily crude oil price forecasts are almost close to the real oil prices.Oil price forecasting has become more and more important for economic agents in COVID-19 period. A consistent model is required to cope with the movements in crude oil prices. A novel method combining fuzzy time series and the greatest integer function is developed. The results show that our model outperforms other counterparts or ANN and SVM methods. We capture non-linearity and volatility in crude oil prices.

Supporting Luxury Hotel Recovered in Times of COVID-19 by Applying TRIZ Method: A Case Study in Taiwan

The current COVID-19 pandemic, which is alarming for another global economic recession, puts the sustainable development of the tourism system under high consideration. The tourism industry is a key generator of foreign exchange across the region. However, tourism is one of the sectors most affected by the global pandemic. Through a case study in Taiwan, the objective of this study is to show how an Evergreen hotel fixed itself on existing and recovering in the hospitality business during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 using the combination of the problem hierarchy analysis (PHA) and the Teoriya Resheniya Izobreatatelskih Zadatch (TRIZ) or the so-called theory of inventive problem-solving technique. Following PHA technique and extensive investigation, the management team determined that the most recent problems at the Evergreen hotel are in marketing and human resources. The 39 parameters and 40 principles of TRIZ were used to determine the improvement solution and create a solution strategy that simultaneously simplified critical control-point (CCP) processes and improved the correctness of tasks, increasing CCP efficiency and supporting and satisfying customer demands in the COVID-19 pandemic in the world in general and in Taiwan in particular. The results revealed that customer bookings grew over the four quarters of 2020 due to adjusting the cancellation policy, discounting, and segmenting the market from international to domestic, increasing the CCP efficiency percentage and customer rating score from 19% to 40% and 8.3 to 8.5 score, respectively. Aside from that, changing the hotel structure with a partnership with the Taixie company assisted Evergreen in reducing various cost pressures to manage the business and recover after a difficult period. This paper can be a useful reference for managers, investors, governments, and policymakers to improve the sustainability performance in the tourism industry.

Volatility in natural resources, economic performance, and public administration quality: Evidence from COVID-19

The recent Covid-19 pandemic outbreak caused a global economic recession and promoted uncertainty in the natural resources. Also, this uncertainty is linked with the demand and supply of natural resources such as oil and natural gas, which is a substantial factor of industrial and economic activities. Declining natural resource demands substantially drop such activities that adversely affect economic performance. This attracts the attention of policy-makers and governors to efficiently tackle the issue. This study investigates the association of natural resources volatility, global economic performance, and public administration in earlier and Covid-19 pandemic peak periods. The study covers the period from 1990 to 2020 for the global data. The empirical findings of the cointegration test suggested that the variables are cointegrated. This study utilizes three long-run estimators, i.e., fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), dynamic OLS (DOLS), and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR). The empirical findings suggest that natural resources volatility (TNR) negatively and significantly affect global economic performance. While natural gas rents, oil rents, and public administration quality (QPA) promote global economic performance. Besides, the results also indicate that the interaction of QPA and TNR enhances economic performance. This study demonstrates that volatility in natural resources is detrimental to global economic performance. However, improved public administrative quality could play a significant role in transforming the negative influence.of natural resources volatility into a positive effect. The findings are robust as validated by Robust regression. This study provides some practical policy insights for the governors and policy-makers to tackle the mentioned issues.

AN EVALUATION ON THE OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY OF TAIWANESE SEMICONDUCTOR IC INDUSTRY

The purpose of this research is to elaborate a three-stage hybrid measure data envelopment analysis (DEA) with meta-frontier model, and then estimate the technical efficiency of Taiwanese semiconductor integrated circuit (IC) companies by using data from 2005 to 2016 on 92 firms. The study divided the Taiwanese semiconductor IC companies into two groups (IC design and IC manufacturing/packaging/testing) based on their different production characteristics and using the concepts of DEA meta-frontier models proposed by [O’Donnell, CJ, DP Rao, GE Battese (2008). Meta-frontier frameworks for the study of firm-level efficiencies and technology ratios. Empirical Economics, 34(2), 231–255] to estimate their efficiencies. The empirical results of this study show that the adjustment range of the average meta-efficiency values of all firms is higher than the adjustment range of the financial turbulent in 2007–2009 and 2011–2013. Second, before and after the adjustment, the distribution of the meta-technology ratio (MTR) changed slightly. The main reason may be that the global economic recession triggered by the 2007–2009 global financial tsunami and the 2011–2013 European debt crisis offset the impact of technological progress. Finally, under the considerations of environmental factors, the ratio of export to total sales, the degree of diversification, research and development spillover effects and the ratio of investment to mainland China are the main determinants influencing the operational performance of Taiwanese semiconductor IC firms and the impacts on MTR.

COVID-19 economic impact payments and opioid overdose deaths.

BackgroundGiven the global economic recessions mediated by the COVID-19 pandemic and that many countries have implemented direct income support programs, we investigated the timing of the COVID-19 economic impact payments and opioid overdose deaths.MethodsA longitudinal, observational study design that included data from the Ohio Department of Health was utilized. Statistical change point analyses were conducted to identify significant changes in weekly number of opioid overdose deaths from January 1 of 2018 to August 1 of 2020. Additional analyses including difference-in-difference, time series tests, interrupted time series regression analysis and Granger causality test were performed.ResultsA single change point was identified and occurred at week 16, 2020. For 2020, the median opioid overdose deaths numbers for weeks 1–16 and weeks 17–32 were 68.5 and 101, respectively. The opioid overdose deaths numbers from weeks 17–32 of 2020 were significantly higher than those in weeks 1–16 of 2020 and those in 2018 and 2019 (before and after week 16). The interrupted time series regression analysis indicated more than 203 deaths weekly for weeks 17–32 of 2020 compared to all other weeks. The result of the Granger causality test found that the identified change point (week 16 of 2020) directly influenced the increase in opioid overdose deaths in weeks 17–32 of 2020.ConclusionThe identified change point may refer to the timing of many factors, not only the economic payments and further research is warranted to investigate the potential relationship between the COVID-19 economic impact payments and overdose deaths.

REFINANCING RATE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMY IN THE CONTEXT OF THE COVID PANDEMIC

REFINANCING RATE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMY IN THE CONTEXT OF THE COVID PANDEMIC

Young NEETs in the EU South: socio-spatial and gender divisions in between the Great Recession and the Covid-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT The 2008/2009 global economic recession and the Covid-19 pandemic fuelled a heap of social and economic problems, including growing youth unemployment and inactivity. Amidst this pressing conjuncture, female youngsters living in economically deprived regions have been affected the most. The paper in hand studies the changing analogies between young women that are “Not in Employment, Education or Training” (the so-called NEETs) and young men of the same status, between 2008 and 2020, across the regions of four EU South countries. By employing a mixed-methods approach, namely analysing quantitative indices and semi-structured interviews, we put the gender divisions and the geographically uneven distribution of NEETs under thorough scrutiny. Furthermore, by adopting a spatially-sensitive perspective, the paper elucidates key underlying factors behind NEETs’ persistence in some of the EU’s least-prosperous regions. Along with several structural and institutional factors, peripherality, regional specialization and gender divisions are indicated as crucial, though commonly neglected, dimensions of contemporary youth disengagement.

ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ БОРГОВОЇ СТІЙКОТІ ДЕРЖАВИ В СУЧАСНИХ УМОВАХ

The paper aimed at researching the state's debt sustainability, assessing its condition and developing ways to improve it in current conditions characterized by a significant level of uncertainty and risk. The study emphasizes that the state's debt sustainability largely depends on the level of its debt and budget security. Emphasis was placed on the necessity and importance of ensuring the debt sustainability of the state in the modern conditions of uncertainty and risk caused by the war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine and the global economic recession. Such threats significantly affect the lowering of the country's debt sustainability level and contribute to the formation of serious threats to national security. Moreover, Ukraine had a significant amount of public debt before the start of armed aggression, and after the start of the active phase of the war, this level only increased at a very fast pace which is a significant threat to the financial and national security of Ukraine. Accordingly, the assessment of the state's debt sustainability level will allow for an assessment of the main threats to the country in the future. Therefore, it was proposed to carry out an analysis of the state's debt sustainability by assessing the state of debt and budget security. The expediency of using the selected methodology for calculating debt and budget security indicators is substantiated. This technique involves the calculation of individual indicators and the overall indicator of budget security and the calculation of individual indicators and the overall indicator of debt security. As a result of the use of this methodology, an assessment of the state of the state's budget security and state debt security was made. Corresponding conclusions have been made, which provide for the identification of the main threats to ensure the budgetary and debt security of the state. Based on the results of the analysis, the paper developed proposals to strengthen the state's debt and budget security, which will contribute to ensuring its debt sustainability in current conditions characterized by a significant level of uncertainty and risk.

Community Empowerment Strategy in Facing Global Recession on South Sulawesi MSMEs Innovation

Global recession is a hot topic of discussion of the global public including Indonesia the increasing risk of a global recession and said that inflation remains an ongoing problem, The economic slowdown will make the real sector restrain production capacity so that termination of employment companies close not operating, inflation investors tend to put their funds in the form of investment. The economy is increasingly difficult to have an impact on the weakening of the community's economy, the empowerment process occurs, participation, community participation so that it is effective. The role of the community in empowerment activities, with a focus as an MSME business actor which is an effort by participants and the community is able to innovate and be competitive in facing a recession, as for, the objectives of the community empowerment strategy, enabling and bathing from the impact of the global recession, as well as competitive empowerment in meeting insufficient life needs. MSME innovation in facing the global recession of society, innovating and applying competitiveness. Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Activities in South Sulawesi. The main problem, When is the strategy and community empowerment able to innovate in MSMEs in South Sulawesi, the results and discussion, The balance of consumption becomes the basis of economic growth. When consumption is unbalanced, there is an economic cycle. Coupled with MSME innovation, it will result in inventory of goods. So the sudden economic shock, when the Covid19 pandemic was one of the causes of the global economic recession weak purchasing power due to financial difficulties with Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) with corporations need to continue to be developed and able to make innovations in all regions of Indonesia, especially in the south by relying on local superior products and paying attention to potential and improving quality and innovation MSMEs. In conclusion, we can anticipate the impact of the recession by innovating MSMEs in community empowerment strategies as well as evaluating spending and following economic developments in South Sulawesi.

СИСТЕМИ СТРАХУВАННЯ ТУРИЗМУ ТА ТУРИСТІВ

The modern insurance market offers a wide range of insurance products, thanks to which it has the opportunity to integrate with other sectors of the economy. Tourist activity by its economic nature is characterized by a high degree of risk, and therefore its effective functioning is impossible without insurance. All developed countries have long introduced insurance in the tourism market for the successful functioning of the industry and the state economy as a whole. The issue of insurance in tourism in the Ukrainian market is problematic, as it is characterized by low awareness and trust of the population, insufficient attention from government agencies. However, the coronavirus pandemic has made significant adjustments to the dynamics of the insurance market in 2020. The sharpest economic downturn since the 1930s has led to a drop in demand for insurance in 2020, especially for life insurance services. Nevertheless, the insurance industry is showing resilience in the pandemic and intends to overcome the deepest global economic recession in history, and predicts a slight recovery of insurance markets in the next 2 years. Therefore, the study and analysis of the dynamics of the insurance market in the conditions of the world in 2020, are particularly relevant. That is why the theoretical justification for the development of insurance systems in tourism is always timely. In the article the author described the main forms and types of insurance in tourism - the system of insurance of foreign economic relations in tourism ("Assistance"), personal (life and pension insurance, pension insurance, accident insurance, health insurance), property (property insurance from fire risks and natural disasters (fire insurance), insurance of crops against natural disasters, drought, hail, etc., insurance of animals in case of death due to disease and accidents, insurance of vehicles against accidents, theft and other risks, etc.), environmental insurance, liability insurance.

Factors Influencing Farmers Adopting the Government Supported Fish Farming Strategy to Food Security in Nyeri County, Kenya

Fish farming is among the programs started by the government of Kenya to cushion its citizens against the effects of global economic recession of 2008-2009. The program aimed at providing income to farmers and diversifying livelihoods in Nyeri County. The study examined factors that influenced adoption of fish farming and its effects on consumption patterns in Mathira Sub County Nyeri County The study employed descriptive research design and applied both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The study targeted fish farmers who benefited from the program. The study site was Mathira Sub-counties which was purposively selected since it had the highest number of fish farmers (439) and systematic sampling employed to identify the study respondents comprising of 343 fish farmers. Field survey was carried out using open ended questionnaires administered to fish farmers. Logit regression model was used to determine factors influencing adoption of fish farming in Mathira Sub Counties, Nyeri County. The study found that the age of the farmer, family size, education level, membership to a farmers group, frequency of fish consumption and household and marital status were significant in explaining farmers will to adopt fish farming. Further, farmers training had a strong association with adoption of fish farming at x 2 98.571, p =0.001. It also recommends the incorporation of farmers’ socio-economic characteristics to arouse fish farming adoption and more investment on farmers training and extension. The finding will assist the stakeholders in agriculture formulate, execute and monitor policies that will support farmers to ascertain food security concerns in Kenya.

Critical Review: A Review of the Studies About the Usage of Social Media During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Since the coronavirus disease (covid-19) was declared a public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organization in January 2020, it has led to the loss of millions of human lives and a global economic recession. Recently, there has been a recognized need for effective health communication via social media to deliver accurate information and promote pertinent behavioral change. Thus, this study provides a systematic review to explore what has been done, what conflicts exist, and what knowledge gap remains in terms of social media use during the covid-19 wave, indicating relevant communication strategies. This research is based on 76 relevant papers taken from searches on the Web of Science and Google Scholar. The analysis revealed that much of the literature confirms the positive effect of social media on information propagation and promotion of precautions in the control of covid-19. The spreading of rumors, especially about government performance, in social media is clearly of increasing concern. Currently, heated debate continues about the association between exposure to social media and public mental health. Another fiercely debated question is whether rumors are shared more widely than fact-checking information. Up to date, far too little attention has been paid to information disparities and vulnerable groups on social media.

The Accuracy of Risk Measurement Models on Bitcoin Market during COVID-19 Pandemic

Since late 2019, during one of the largest pandemics in history, COVID-19, global economic recession has continued. Therefore, investors seek an alternative investment that generates profits during this financially risky situation. Cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin, has become a new currency tool for speculators and investors, and it is expected to be used in future exchanges. Therefore, this paper uses a Value at Risk (VaR) model to measure the risk of investment in Bitcoin. In this paper, we showed the results of the predicted daily loss of investment by using the historical simulation VaR model, the delta-normal VaR model, and the Monte Carlo simulation VaR model with the confidence levels of 99%, 95%, and 90%. This paper displayed backtesting methods to investigate the accuracy of VaR models, which consisted of the Kupiec’s POF and the Kupiec’s TUFF statistical testing results. Finally, Christoffersen’s independence test and Christoffersen’s interval forecasts evaluation showed effectiveness in the predictions for the robustness of VaR models for each confidence level.

The Challenge of Merger Result Bank during the Global Economic Recession due to the Covid-19 Pandemic: Case Study of Indonesian Islamic Banks

Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI) is a new entity resulting from the merger of Bank Syariah Mandiri, BNI Syariah, and BRI Syariah. BSI was inaugurated in February 2021 amid the global economic recession due to the Covid-19 pandemic. It has not much been explained about the fundamental data of the 3 banks that formed BSI when the recession occurred due to the Covid-19 hit. As a result, BSI's record of challenges during the global recession has not appeared much. The aim of the research is to map the challenges that BSI will face when the economic recession due to the pandemic has not ended. BSI's challenge notes are useful for BSI policymakers, so they can mitigate risks. A qualitative method Miles-Huberman model is employed to analyze the data which is done through 3 stages: data reduction, data display, and verification or conclusion. Based on data analysis, BSI will face the challenges of slow deposit and financing growth, rising non-performing financing, declining net profit, and declining sukuk ratings.

The Multiple Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on China’s Oil Security and the Rising Green Opportunities

The COVID-19 pandemic has seriously challenged the global oil market, and coronavirus-induced oil prices crash, oil demand decline and global economic recession affect China’s oil supply as well. China has high oil vulnerability due to its rising oil import dependency which aggravates Beijing’s concerns about oil security, despite at a time of the pandemic-induced oil oversupply. This study uses the SWOT analytical model to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in China’s oil sector, and the changes in opportunities and threats caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has brought multiple impacts to China’s oil security. Results from the analysis show that the existing opportunities such as oil investments in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and domestic upstream opening-up have been weakened; new threats that the uncertainty over global oil demand-supply and decrease in global upstream investments have emerged; opportunities that an increase in domestic strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) and low-carbon development are rising amid the pandemic. Notably, the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the vulnerability of the global oil market to systemic risks and accelerated the transition to renewable energy.

The Multiple Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on China’s Oil Security and the Rising Green Opportunities

The COVID-19 pandemic has seriously challenged the global oil market, and coronavirus-induced oil prices crash, oil demand decline and global economic recession affect China’s oil supply as well. China has high oil vulnerability due to its rising oil import dependency which aggravates Beijing’s concerns about oil security, despite at a time of the pandemic-induced oil oversupply. This study uses the SWOT analytical model to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in China’s oil sector, and the changes in opportunities and threats caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has brought multiple impacts to China’s oil security. Results from the analysis show that the existing opportunities such as oil investments in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and domestic upstream opening-up have been weakened; new threats that the uncertainty over global oil demand-supply and decrease in global upstream investments have emerged; opportunities that an increase in domestic strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) and low-carbon development are rising amid the pandemic. Notably, the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the vulnerability of the global oil market to systemic risks and accelerated the transition to renewable energy.