Global Chemical Model Research Articles

Contributions of international sources to PM2.5 in South Korea

The air quality in Republic of Korea, especially in cities such as Seoul, has been a serious public health concern over the years. The key pollutant in the atmosphere leading to poor air quality in Korea is fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Here, we use a 3-D global chemistry model (GEOS-Chem) to conduct source attribution to PM2.5 in Korea from international and domestic emissions. The modeling was done for 2015 and 2016 to account for different meteorological conditions. We ran the GEOS-Chem model for both years, conducted model evaluation using ground and aloft observations, and then conducted sensitivity simulations without domestic anthropogenic emissions and Chinese anthropogenic emissions, respectively. Results show that the Chinese influence on PM2.5 in Korea varies from month to month with the highest contribution during spring when observed concentrations are also the highest. Chinese contributions to PM2.5 concentrations in South Korea reach a maximum of up to ~60% in January and February and gradually decrease until August when they reach a minimum at about 20%. On an annual basis, our analysis estimated that in 2016, Chinese anthropogenic emissions contributed 45% to PM2.5 in South Korea. The 2016 contribution from China was generally 3–5% lower than in 2015 because of emissions reductions in China. Compared to the Chinese contribution, the rest of the world contributions (which also include contributions from natural emissions worldwide) were minor except for summer in the South Sea.

Modelling of a miniature microwave driven nitrogen plasma jet and comparison to measurements

The MMWICP (miniature microwave ICP) is a new plasma source using the induction principle. Recently Klute et al presented a mathematical model for the electromagnetic fields and power balance of the new device. In this work the electromagnetic model is coupled with a global chemistry model for nitrogen, based on the chemical reaction set of Thorsteinsson and Gudmundsson and customized for the geometry of the MMWICP. The combined model delivers a quantitative description for a non-thermal plasma at a pressure of p = 1000 Pa and a gas temperature of T g = 650–1600 K. Comparison with published experimental data shows a good agreement for the volume averaged plasma parameters at high power, for the spatial distribution of the discharge and for the microwave measurements. Furthermore, the balance of capacitive and inductive coupling in the absorbed power is analyzed. This leads to the interpretation of the discharge regime at an electron density of n e ≈ 6.4 × 1018 m−3 as E/H-hybridmode with an capacitive and inductive component.

Lithium-ion battery physics and statistics-based state of health model

A pseudo-2d model using COMSOL Multiphysics® software simulates performance degradation of Li-ion batteries when subjected to peak shaving grid service. Multiple degradation pathways are considered, including solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation and breakdown, cathode dissolution and its effect on SEI formation. The model is validated by simulating commercial cell performance. We develop a global model simulating performance across all chemistries, along with a model treating chemistries individually. There is good agreement between these two models for various optimization parameters such as SEI equilibrium potential, cathode dissolution exchange current density, solvent diffusivity in the SEI and SEI ionic conductivity. To circumvent time constraints related to the COMSOL model, a 0d global model is developed, which fits data well. Good agreement for various optimization parameters is obtained among the COMSOL global & individual chemistry models and the 0-d model. A top-down, statistics-based model using current, voltage, and anode expansion rate as degradation predictors is developed using insights from the physics-based model. This model predicts degradation for multiple grid services and electric vehicle drive cycles with high accuracy and provides the pathway to develop an efficient battery management system combining machine learning and findings from computationally intensive physics-based algorithms.

Pan-Arctic surface ozone: modelling vs. measurements

Abstract. Within the framework of the International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA), we report a modelling-based study on surface ozone across the Arctic. We use surface ozone from six sites – Summit (Greenland), Pallas (Finland), Barrow (USA), Alert (Canada), Tiksi (Russia), and Villum Research Station (VRS) at Station Nord (North Greenland, Danish realm) – and ozone-sonde data from three Canadian sites: Resolute, Eureka, and Alert. Two global chemistry models – a global chemistry transport model (parallelised-Tropospheric Offline Model of Chemistry and Transport, p-TOMCAT) and a global chemistry climate model (United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol, UKCA) – are used for model data comparisons. Remotely sensed data of BrO from the GOME-2 satellite instrument and ground-based multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) at Eureka, Canada, are used for model validation. The observed climatology data show that spring surface ozone at coastal sites is heavily depleted, making ozone seasonality at Arctic coastal sites distinctly different from that at inland sites. Model simulations show that surface ozone can be greatly reduced by bromine chemistry. In April, bromine chemistry can cause a net ozone loss (monthly mean) of 10–20 ppbv, with almost half attributable to open-ocean-sourced bromine and the rest to sea-ice-sourced bromine. However, the open-ocean-sourced bromine, via sea spray bromide depletion, cannot by itself produce ozone depletion events (ODEs; defined as ozone volume mixing ratios, VMRs, < 10 ppbv). In contrast, sea-ice-sourced bromine, via sea salt aerosol (SSA) production from blowing snow, can produce ODEs even without bromine from sea spray, highlighting the importance of sea ice surface in polar boundary layer chemistry. Modelled total inorganic bromine (BrY) over the Arctic sea ice is sensitive to model configuration; e.g. under the same bromine loading, BrY in the Arctic spring boundary layer in the p-TOMCAT control run (i.e. with all bromine emissions) can be 2 times that in the UKCA control run. Despite the model differences, both model control runs can successfully reproduce large bromine explosion events (BEEs) and ODEs in polar spring. Model-integrated tropospheric-column BrO generally matches GOME-2 tropospheric columns within ∼ 50 % in UKCA and a factor of 2 in p-TOMCAT. The success of the models in reproducing both ODEs and BEEs in the Arctic indicates that the relevant parameterizations implemented in the models work reasonably well, which supports the proposed mechanism of SSA production and bromide release on sea ice. Given that sea ice is a large source of SSA and halogens, changes in sea ice type and extent in a warming climate will influence Arctic boundary layer chemistry, including the oxidation of atmospheric elemental mercury. Note that this work dose not necessary rule out other possibilities that may act as a source of reactive bromine from the sea ice zone.

Minimal Climate Impacts From Short-Lived Climate Forcers Following Emission Reductions Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic.

We present an assessment of the impacts on atmospheric composition and radiative forcing of short‐lived pollutants following a worldwide decrease in anthropogenic activity and emissions comparable to what has occurred in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic, using the global composition‐climate model United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols Model (UKCA). Emission changes reduce tropospheric hydroxyl radical and ozone burdens, increasing methane lifetime. Reduced SO2 emissions and oxidizing capacity lead to a decrease in sulfate aerosol and increase in aerosol size, with accompanying reductions to cloud droplet concentration. However, large reductions in black carbon emissions increase aerosol albedo. Overall, the changes in ozone and aerosol direct effects (neglecting aerosol‐cloud interactions which were statistically insignificant but whose response warrants future investigation) yield a radiative forcing of −33 to −78 mWm−2. Upon cessation of emission reductions, the short‐lived climate forcers rapidly return to pre‐COVID levels; meaning, these changes are unlikely to have lasting impacts on climate assuming emissions return to pre‐intervention levels.

Evaluation of reaction kinetics models for meso-scale simulations of hotspot initiation and growth in HMX

Meso-scale modeling of heterogeneous energetic materials requires accurate description of the chemical reaction model that governs the decomposition of solid energetic crystals to gaseous products. For HMX, various 1-step and multi-step Arrhenius based chemical kinetic models are available; these chemical kinetics models for HMX have been calibrated against macro-scale experimental data under different ranges of pressure and temperature conditions, which may lie outside the ranges that arise during void collapse. Therefore, depending on the reaction model, the predicted meso-scale hotspot initiation and growth behavior can vary. Here, we examine the effects of five global HMX reaction kinetics models on predictions of void collapse induced hotspots, viz. the Henson-Smilowitz 1-step (HS1), Menikoff 1-step (M1), Tarver-Nichols 3-step (TN3), Henson-Smilowitz 9-step (HS9) and a 7-step extended Brill-Yetter model (BYS7). Variations in the hotspot behavior predicted using the different models are observed to be significant. A detailed examination of the individual reaction mechanisms of each of these global chemistry models is undertaken to provide insights and understanding of the reaction steps that lead to the differences in the predicted hotspot behavior. For the temperature regime relevant to the void collapse generated hotspots, the differences in the hotspot behavior are attributed to the orders of magnitude variations in the reaction rates that govern the maximum energy release during HMX decomposition. The paper shows that the issue of a suitable kinetics model, even for the commonly used HMX material, remains unsettled.

Direct kinetic measurements and theoretical predictions of an isoprene-derived Criegee intermediate

Isoprene has the highest emission into Earth's atmosphere of any nonmethane hydrocarbon. Atmospheric processing of alkenes, including isoprene, via ozonolysis leads to the formation of zwitterionic reactive intermediates, known as Criegee intermediates (CIs). Direct studies have revealed that reactions involving simple CIs can significantly impact the tropospheric oxidizing capacity, enhance particulate formation, and degrade local air quality. Methyl vinyl ketone oxide (MVK-oxide) is a four-carbon, asymmetric, resonance-stabilized CI, produced with 21 to 23% yield from isoprene ozonolysis, yet its reactivity has not been directly studied. We present direct kinetic measurements of MVK-oxide reactions with key atmospheric species using absorption spectroscopy. Direct UV-Vis absorption spectra from two independent flow cell experiments overlap with the molecular beam UV-Vis-depletion spectra reported recently [M. F. Vansco, B. Marchetti, M. I. Lester, J. Chem. Phys. 149, 44309 (2018)] but suggest different conformer distributions under jet-cooled and thermal conditions. Comparison of the experimental lifetime herein with theory indicates only the syn-conformers are observed; anti-conformers are calculated to be removed much more rapidly via unimolecular decay. We observe experimentally and predict theoretically fast reaction of syn-MVK-oxide with SO2 and formic acid, similar to smaller alkyl-substituted CIs, and by contrast, slow removal in the presence of water. We determine products through complementary multiplexed photoionization mass spectrometry, observing SO3 and identifying organic hydroperoxide formation from reaction with SO2 and formic acid, respectively. The tropospheric implications of these reactions are evaluated using a global chemistry and transport model.

Characterization of organic aerosol across the global remote troposphere: a comparison of ATom measurements and global chemistry models

Abstract. The spatial distribution and properties of submicron organic aerosol (OA) are among the key sources of uncertainty in our understanding of aerosol effects on climate. Uncertainties are particularly large over remote regions of the free troposphere and Southern Ocean, where very few data have been available and where OA predictions from AeroCom Phase II global models span 2 to 3 orders of magnitude, greatly exceeding the model spread over source regions. The (nearly) pole-to-pole vertical distribution of non-refractory aerosols was measured with an aerosol mass spectrometer onboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft as part of the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission during the Northern Hemisphere summer (August 2016) and winter (February 2017). This study presents the first extensive characterization of OA mass concentrations and their level of oxidation in the remote atmosphere. OA and sulfate are the major contributors by mass to submicron aerosols in the remote troposphere, together with sea salt in the marine boundary layer. Sulfate was dominant in the lower stratosphere. OA concentrations have a strong seasonal and zonal variability, with the highest levels measured in the lower troposphere in the summer and over the regions influenced by biomass burning from Africa (up to 10 µg sm−3). Lower concentrations (∼0.1–0.3 µg sm−3) are observed in the northern middle and high latitudes and very low concentrations (<0.1 µg sm−3) in the southern middle and high latitudes. The ATom dataset is used to evaluate predictions of eight current global chemistry models that implement a variety of commonly used representations of OA sources and chemistry, as well as of the AeroCom-II ensemble. The current model ensemble captures the average vertical and spatial distribution of measured OA concentrations, and the spread of the individual models remains within a factor of 5. These results are significantly improved over the AeroCom-II model ensemble, which shows large overestimations over these regions. However, some of the improved agreement with observations occurs for the wrong reasons, as models have the tendency to greatly overestimate the primary OA fraction and underestimate the secondary fraction. Measured OA in the remote free troposphere is highly oxygenated, with organic aerosol to organic carbon (OA ∕ OC) ratios of ∼2.2–2.8, and is 30 %–60 % more oxygenated than in current models, which can lead to significant errors in OA concentrations. The model–measurement comparisons presented here support the concept of a more dynamic OA system as proposed by Hodzic et al. (2016), with enhanced removal of primary OA and a stronger production of secondary OA in global models needed to provide better agreement with observations.

Chemistry in nanosecond plasmas in water

AbstractDischarges in liquids are the basis of a range of applications in electrochemistry, wastewater treatment, or plasma medicine. One advantage of discharges in water is their ability to produce radicals and molecules directly inside liquid with a high conversion efficiency. In this study, H2O2 production in a 10 ns pulsed discharge in water is investigated. The dynamic of these discharges is based on plasma ignition directly inside liquid followed by the formation of a bubble that expands in time before it eventually collapses. This sequence can be well described by cavitation theory. H2O2 is produced using different plasma conditions varying the treatment time, the pulse frequency between 1 and 100 Hz, and the applied voltage in a range from 15–30 kV. The resulting H2O2 concentration is measured using absorption spectroscopy ex situ based on a colorimetry method. The results indicate that the main parameter controlling the H2O2 production constitutes the applied voltage. The measured concentrations are compared with a global chemistry model simulating the chemistry involved during a single pulse using pressures and temperatures from the cavitation model. In addition, a global chemical equilibrium model for H2O2 creation is evaluated as well. The models show a good agreement with the data. The energy efficiency for the production of H2O2 reaches values up to 2 g/kWh.

Evaluation of NASA's high-resolution global composition simulations: Understanding a pollution event in the Chesapeake Bay during the summer 2017 OWLETS campaign

Recirculation of pollutants due to a bay breeze effect is a key meteorological mechanism impacting air quality near urban coastal areas, but regional and global chemical transport models have historically struggled to capture this phenomenon. We present a case study of a high ozone (O3) episode observed over the Chesapeake Bay during the NASA Ozone Water-Land Environmental Transition Study (OWLETS) in summer 2017. OWLETS included a complementary suite of ground-based and airborne observations, with which we characterize the meteorological and chemical context of this event and develop a framework to evaluate model performance. Two publicly-available NASA global high-resolution coupled chemistry-meteorology models (CCMMs) are investigated: GEOS-CF and MERRA2-GMI. The GEOS-CF R2 value for comparisons between the NASA Sherpa C-23 aircraft measurements to the GEOS-CF resulted in good agreement (R2: 0.67) on July 19th and fair agreement (R2: 0.55) for July 20th. Compared to surface observations, we find the GEOS-CF product with a 25 × 25 km2 grid box, at an hourly (R2: 0.62 to 0.87) and 15-min (R2: 0.64 to 0.87) interval for six regional sites outperforms the hourly nominally 50 × 50 km2 gridded MERRA2-GMI (R2: 0.53 to 0.76) for four of the six sites, suggesting it is better capable of simulating complex chemical and meteorological features associated with ozone transport within the Chesapeake Bay airshed. When the GEOS-CF product was compared to the TOLNet LiDAR observations at both NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) and the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel (CBBT), the median differences at LaRC were −6 to 8% and at CBBT were ±7% between 400 and 2000 m ASL. This indicates that, for this case study, the GEOS-CF is able to simulate surface level ozone diurnal cycles and vertical ozone profiles at small scales between the surface level and 2000 m ASL. Evaluating global chemical model simulations at sub-regional scales will help air quality scientists understand the complex processes occurring at small spatial and temporal scales within complex surface terrain changes, simulating nighttime chemistry and deposition, and the potential to use global chemical transport simulations in support of regional and sub-regional field campaigns.

A Lagrangian convective transport scheme including a simulation of the time air parcels spend in updrafts (LaConTra v1.0)

Abstract. We present a Lagrangian convective transport scheme developed for global chemistry and transport models, which considers the variable residence time that an air parcel spends in convection. This is particularly important for accurately simulating the tropospheric chemistry of short-lived species, e.g., for determining the time available for heterogeneous chemical processes on the surface of cloud droplets. In current Lagrangian convective transport schemes air parcels are stochastically redistributed within a fixed time step according to estimated probabilities for convective entrainment as well as the altitude of detrainment. We introduce a new scheme that extends this approach by modeling the variable time that an air parcel spends in convection by estimating vertical updraft velocities. Vertical updraft velocities are obtained by combining convective mass fluxes from meteorological analysis data with a parameterization of convective area fraction profiles. We implement two different parameterizations: a parameterization using an observed constant convective area fraction profile and a parameterization that uses randomly drawn profiles to allow for variability. Our scheme is driven by convective mass fluxes and detrainment rates that originate from an external convective parameterization, which can be obtained from meteorological analysis data or from general circulation models. We study the effect of allowing for a variable time that an air parcel spends in convection by performing simulations in which our scheme is implemented into the trajectory module of the ATLAS chemistry and transport model and is driven by the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data. In particular, we show that the redistribution of air parcels in our scheme conserves the vertical mass distribution and that the scheme is able to reproduce the convective mass fluxes and detrainment rates of ERA-Interim. We further show that the estimated vertical updraft velocities of our scheme are able to reproduce wind profiler measurements performed in Darwin, Australia, for velocities larger than 0.6 m s−1. SO2 is used as an example to show that there is a significant effect on species mixing ratios when modeling the time spent in convective updrafts compared to a redistribution of air parcels in a fixed time step. Furthermore, we perform long-time global trajectory simulations of radon-222 and compare with aircraft measurements of radon activity.

Enabling Immediate Access to Earth Science Models through Cloud Computing: Application to the GEOS-Chem Model

AbstractCloud computing platforms can provide fast and easy access to complex Earth science models and large datasets. This article presents a mature capability for running the GEOS-Chem global 3D model of atmospheric chemistry on the Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud. GEOS-Chem users at any experience level can get immediate access to the latest, standard version of the model in a preconfigured software environment with all needed meteorological and other input data, and they can analyze model output data easily within the cloud using Python tools in Jupyter notebooks. Users with no prior knowledge of cloud computing are provided with easy-to-follow, step-by-step instructions. They can learn how to complete a demo project in less than one hour, and from there they can configure and submit their own simulations. The cloud is particularly attractive for beginning and occasional users who otherwise may need to spend substantial time configuring a local computing environment. Heavy users with their own local clusters can also benefit from the cloud to access the latest standard model and datasets, share simulation configurations and results, benchmark local simulations, and respond to surges in computing demand. Software containers allow GEOS-Chem and its software environment to be moved smoothly between cloud platforms and local clusters, so that the exact same simulation can be reproduced everywhere. Because the software requirements and workflows tend to be similar across Earth science models, the work presented here provides general guidance for porting models to cloud computing platforms in a user-accessible way.

A simplified parameterization of isoprene-epoxydiol-derived secondary organic aerosol (IEPOX-SOA) for global chemistry and climate models: a case study with GEOS-Chem v11-02-rc

Abstract. Secondary organic aerosol derived from isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX-SOA) is thought to contribute the dominant fraction of total isoprene SOA, but the current volatility-based lumped SOA parameterizations are not appropriate to represent the reactive uptake of IEPOX onto acidified aerosols. A full explicit modeling of this chemistry is however computationally expensive owing to the many species and reactions tracked, which makes it difficult to include it in chemistry–climate models for long-term studies. Here we present three simplified parameterizations (version 1.0) for IEPOX-SOA simulation, based on an approximate analytical/fitting solution of the IEPOX-SOA yield and formation timescale. The yield and timescale can then be directly calculated using the global model fields of oxidants, NO, aerosol pH and other key properties, and dry deposition rates. The advantage of the proposed parameterizations is that they do not require the simulation of the intermediates while retaining the key physicochemical dependencies. We have implemented the new parameterizations into the GEOS-Chem v11-02-rc chemical transport model, which has two empirical treatments for isoprene SOA (the volatility-basis-set, VBS, approach and a fixed 3 % yield parameterization), and compared all of them to the case with detailed fully explicit chemistry. The best parameterization (PAR3) captures the global tropospheric burden of IEPOX-SOA and its spatiotemporal distribution (R2=0.94) vs. those simulated by the full chemistry, while being more computationally efficient (∼5 times faster), and accurately captures the response to changes in NOx and SO2 emissions. On the other hand, the constant 3 % yield that is now the default in GEOS-Chem deviates strongly (R2=0.66), as does the VBS (R2=0.47, 49 % underestimation), with neither parameterization capturing the response to emission changes. With the advent of new mass spectrometry instrumentation, many detailed SOA mechanisms are being developed, which will challenge global and especially climate models with their computational cost. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other SOA pathways, which can allow including accurate SOA simulations in climate and global modeling studies in the future.

Consistent simulation of capacitive radio-frequency discharges and external matching networks

External matching networks are crucial and necessary for operating capacitively coupled plasmas in order to maximize the absorbed power. Experiments show that external circuits in general heavily interact with the plasma in a nonlinear way. This interaction has to be taken into account in order to be able to design suitable networks, e.g., for plasma processing systems. For a complete understanding of the underlying physics of this coupling, a nonlinear simulation approach which considers both the plasma and the circuit dynamics can provide useful insights. In this work, the coupling of an equivalent circuit plasma model and an external electric circuit composed of lumped elements is discussed. The plasma model itself is self-consistent in the sense that the plasma density and the electron temperature is calculated from the absorbed power based on a global plasma chemistry model. The approach encompasses all elements present in plasma systems, i.e., the discharge itself, the matching network, the power generator as well as stray loss elements. While the main result of this work is the conceptual approach itself, at the example of a single-frequency capacitively coupled discharge its applicability is demonstrated. It is shown that it provides an effective and efficient way to analyze and understand the nonlinear dynamics of plasma systems including the external circuit and, furthermore, may be applied to synthesize optimal matching networks.

Estimates of exceedances of critical loads for acidifying deposition in Alberta and Saskatchewan

Abstract. Estimates of potential harmful effects on ecosystems in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan due to acidifying deposition were calculated, using a 1-year simulation of a high-resolution implementation of the Global Environmental Multiscale-Modelling Air-quality and Chemistry (GEM-MACH) model, and estimates of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem critical loads. The model simulation was evaluated against two different sources of deposition data: total deposition in precipitation and total deposition to snowpack in the vicinity of the Athabasca oil sands. The model captured much of the variability of observed ions in wet deposition in precipitation (observed versus model sulfur, nitrogen and base cation R2 values of 0.90, 0.76 and 0.72, respectively), while being biased high for sulfur deposition, and low for nitrogen and base cations (slopes 2.2, 0.89 and 0.40, respectively). Aircraft-based estimates of fugitive dust emissions, shown to be a factor of 10 higher than reported to national emissions inventories (Zhang et al., 2018), were used to estimate the impact of increased levels of fugitive dust on model results. Model comparisons to open snowpack observations were shown to be biased high, but in reasonable agreement for sulfur deposition when observations were corrected to account for throughfall in needleleaf forests. The model–observation relationships for precipitation deposition data, along with the expected effects of increased (unreported) base cation emissions, were used to provide a simple observation-based correction to model deposition fields. Base cation deposition was estimated using published observations of base cation fractions in surface-collected particles (Wang et al., 2015).Both original and observation-corrected model estimates of sulfur, nitrogen, and base cation deposition were used in conjunction with critical load data created using the NEG-ECP (2001) and CLRTAP (2017) methods for calculating critical loads, using variations on the Simple Mass Balance model for terrestrial ecosystems, and the Steady State Water Chemistry and First-order Acidity Balance models for aquatic ecosystems. Potential ecosystem damage was predicted within each of the regions represented by the ecosystem critical load datasets used here, using a combination of 2011 and 2013 emissions inventories. The spatial extent of the regions in exceedance of critical loads varied between 1 × 104 and 3.3 × 105 km2, for the more conservative observation-corrected estimates of deposition, with the variation dependent on the ecosystem and critical load calculation methodology. The larger estimates (for aquatic ecosystems) represent a substantial fraction of the area of the provinces examined.Base cation deposition was shown to be sufficiently high in the region to have a neutralizing effect on acidifying deposition, and the use of the aircraft and precipitation observation-based corrections to base cation deposition resulted in reasonable agreement with snowpack data collected in the oil sands area. However, critical load exceedances calculated using both observations and observation-corrected deposition suggest that the neutralization effect is limited in spatial extent, decreasing rapidly with distance from emissions sources, due to the rapid deposition of emitted primary dust particles as a function of their size. We strongly recommend the use of observation-based correction of model-simulated deposition in estimating critical load exceedances, in future work.

How well can global chemistry models calculate the reactivity of short-lived greenhouse gases in the remote troposphere, knowing the chemical composition

Abstract. We develop a new protocol for merging in situ measurements with 3-D model simulations of atmospheric chemistry with the goal of integrating these data to identify the most reactive air parcels in terms of tropospheric production and loss of the greenhouse gases ozone and methane. Presupposing that we can accurately measure atmospheric composition, we examine whether models constrained by such measurements agree on the chemical budgets for ozone and methane. In applying our technique to a synthetic data stream of 14 880 parcels along 180∘ W, we are able to isolate the performance of the photochemical modules operating within their global chemistry-climate and chemistry-transport models, removing the effects of modules controlling tracer transport, emissions, and scavenging. Differences in reactivity across models are driven only by the chemical mechanism and the diurnal cycle of photolysis rates, which are driven in turn by temperature, water vapor, solar zenith angle, clouds, and possibly aerosols and overhead ozone, which are calculated in each model. We evaluate six global models and identify their differences and similarities in simulating the chemistry through a range of innovative diagnostics. All models agree that the more highly reactive parcels dominate the chemistry (e.g., the hottest 10 % of parcels control 25–30 % of the total reactivities), but do not fully agree on which parcels comprise the top 10 %. Distinct differences in specific features occur, including the spatial regions of maximum ozone production and methane loss, as well as in the relationship between photolysis and these reactivities. Unique, possibly aberrant, features are identified for each model, providing a benchmark for photochemical module development. Among the six models tested here, three are almost indistinguishable based on the inherent variability caused by clouds, and thus we identify four, effectively distinct, chemical models. Based on this work, we suggest that water vapor differences in model simulations of past and future atmospheres may be a cause of the different evolution of tropospheric O3 and CH4, and lead to different chemistry-climate feedbacks across the models.

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for the problem being addressed, whether biases can be tolerated or corrected, whether the model is appropriately constituted, and whether there is a way to satisfactorily quantify the uncertainty.

Multi-decadal records of stratospheric composition and their relationship to stratospheric circulation change

Abstract. Constituent evolution for 1990–2015 simulated using the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model driven by meteorological fields from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) is compared with three sources of observations: ground-based column measurements of HNO3 and HCl from two stations in the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, ∼ 1990–ongoing), profiles of CH4 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS, 1992–2005), and profiles of N2O from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Earth Observing System satellite Aura (2005–ongoing). The differences between observed and simulated values are shown to be time dependent, with better agreement after ∼ 2000 compared with the prior decade. Furthermore, the differences between observed and simulated HNO3 and HCl columns are shown to be correlated with each other, suggesting that issues with the simulated transport and mixing cause the differences during the 1990s and that these issues are less important during the later years. Because the simulated fields are related to mean age in the lower stratosphere, we use these comparisons to evaluate the time dependence of mean age. The ongoing NDACC column observations provide critical information necessary to substantiate trends in mean age obtained using fields from MERRA-2 or any other reanalysis products.

Sulfate production by reactive bromine: Implications for the global sulfur and reactive bromine budgets

AbstractSulfur and reactive bromine (Bry) play important roles in tropospheric chemistry and the global radiation budget. The oxidation of dissolved SO2 (S(IV)) by HOBr increases sulfate aerosol abundance and may also impact the Bry budget, but is generally not included in global climate and chemistry models. In this study, we implement HOBr + S(IV) reactions into the GEOS‐Chem global chemical transport model and evaluate the global impacts on both sulfur and Bry budgets. Modeled HOBr mixing ratios on the order of 0.1–1.0 parts per trillion (ppt) lead to HOBr + S(IV) contributing to 8% of global sulfate production and up to 45% over some tropical ocean regions with high HOBr mixing ratios (0.6–0.9 ppt). Inclusion of HOBr + S(IV) in the model leads to a global Bry decrease of 50%, initiated by the decrease in bromide recycling in cloud droplets. Observations of HOBr are necessary to better understand the role of HOBr + S(IV) in tropospheric sulfur and Bry cycles.

Two-stage autoignition and edge flames in a high pressure turbulent jet

A three-dimensional direct numerical simulation is conducted for a temporally evolving planar jet of n-heptane at a pressure of 40 atmospheres and in a coflow of air at 1100 K. At these conditions, n-heptane exhibits a two-stage ignition due to low- and high-temperature chemistry, which is reproduced by the global chemical model used in this study. The results show that ignition occurs in several overlapping stages and multiple modes of combustion are present. Low-temperature chemistry precedes the formation of multiple spatially localised high-temperature chemistry autoignition events, referred to as ‘kernels’. These kernels form within the shear layer and core of the jet at compositions with short homogeneous ignition delay times and in locations experiencing low scalar dissipation rates. An analysis of the kernel histories shows that the ignition delay time is correlated with the mixing rate history and that the ignition kernels tend to form in vortically dominated regions of the domain, as corroborated by an analysis of the topology of the velocity gradient tensor. Once ignited, the kernels grow rapidly and establish edge flames where they envelop the stoichiometric isosurface. A combination of kernel formation (autoignition) and the growth of existing burning surface (via edge-flame propagation) contributes to the overall ignition process. An analysis of propagation speeds evaluated on the burning surface suggests that although the edge-flame speed is promoted by the autoignitive conditions due to an increase in the local laminar flame speed, edge-flame propagation of existing burning surfaces (triggered initially by isolated autoignition kernels) is the dominant ignition mode in the present configuration.