Global Carbon Project Research Articles

Vegetation distribution and terrestrial carbon cycle in a carbon cycle configuration of JULES4.6 with new plant functional types

Abstract. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are used for studying historical and future changes to vegetation and the terrestrial carbon cycle. JULES (the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) represents the land surface in the Hadley Centre climate models and in the UK Earth System Model. Recently the number of plant functional types (PFTs) in JULES was expanded from five to nine to better represent functional diversity in global ecosystems. Here we introduce a more mechanistic representation of vegetation dynamics in TRIFFID, the dynamic vegetation component of JULES, which allows for any number of PFTs to compete based solely on their height; therefore, the previous hardwired dominance hierarchy is removed. With the new set of nine PFTs, JULES is able to more accurately reproduce global vegetation distribution compared to the former five PFT version. Improvements include the coverage of trees within tropical and boreal forests and a reduction in shrubs, the latter of which dominated at high latitudes. We show that JULES is able to realistically represent several aspects of the global carbon (C) cycle. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is within the range of observations, but simulated net primary productivity (NPP) is slightly too high. GPP in JULES from 1982 to 2011 is 133 Pg C yr−1, compared to observation-based estimates (over the same time period) between 123 ± 8 and 150–175 Pg C yr−1. NPP from 2000 to 2013 is 72 Pg C yr−1, compared to satellite-derived NPP of 55 Pg C yr−1 over the same period and independent estimates of 56.2 ± 14.3 Pg C yr−1. The simulated carbon stored in vegetation is 542 Pg C, compared to an observation-based range of 400–600 Pg C. Soil carbon is much lower (1422 Pg C) than estimates from measurements (> 2400 Pg C), with large underestimations of soil carbon in the tropical and boreal forests. We also examined some aspects of the historical terrestrial carbon sink as simulated by JULES. Between the 1900s and 2000s, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels enhanced vegetation productivity and litter inputs into the soils, while land use change removed vegetation and reduced soil carbon. The result is a simulated increase in soil carbon of 57 Pg C but a decrease in vegetation carbon of 98 Pg C. The total simulated loss of soil and vegetation carbon due to land use change is 138 Pg C from 1900 to 2009, compared to a recent observationally constrained estimate of 155 ± 50 Pg C from 1901 to 2012. The simulated land carbon sink is 2.0 ± 1.0 Pg C yr−1 from 2000 to 2009, in close agreement with estimates from the IPCC and Global Carbon Project.

The Global N2O Model Intercomparison Project

AbstractNitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and also an ozone-depleting substance that has both natural and anthropogenic sources. Large estimation uncertainty remains on the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of N2O fluxes and the key drivers of N2O production in the terrestrial biosphere. Some terrestrial biosphere models have been evolved to account for nitrogen processes and to show the capability to simulate N2O emissions from land ecosystems at the global scale, but large discrepancies exist among their estimates primarily because of inconsistent input datasets, simulation protocol, and model structure and parameterization schemes. Based on the consistent model input data and simulation protocol, the global N2O Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP) was initialized with 10 state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models that include nitrogen (N) cycling. Specific objectives of NMIP are to 1) unravel the major N cycling processes controlling N2O fluxes in each model and identify the uncertainty sources from model structure, input data, and parameters; 2) quantify the magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of global and regional N2O fluxes from the preindustrial period (1860) to present and attribute the relative contributions of multiple environmental factors to N2O dynamics; and 3) provide a benchmarking estimate of N2O fluxes through synthesizing the multimodel simulation results and existing estimates from ground-based observations, inventories, and statistical and empirical extrapolations. This study provides detailed descriptions for the NMIP protocol, input data, model structure, and key parameters, along with preliminary simulation results. The global and regional N2O estimation derived from the NMIP is a key component of the global N2O budget synthesis activity jointly led by the Global Carbon Project and the International Nitrogen Initiative.

Global CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from cement production

Abstract. The global production of cement has grown very rapidly in recent years, and after fossil fuels and land-use change, it is the third-largest source of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide. The required data for estimating emissions from global cement production are poor, and it has been recognised that some global estimates are significantly inflated. Here we assemble a large variety of available datasets and prioritise official data and emission factors, including estimates submitted to the UNFCCC plus new estimates for China and India, to present a new analysis of global process emissions from cement production. We show that global process emissions in 2016 were 1.45±0.20 Gt CO2, equivalent to about 4 % of emissions from fossil fuels. Cumulative emissions from 1928 to 2016 were 39.3±2.4 Gt CO2, 66 % of which have occurred since 1990. Emissions in 2015 were 30 % lower than those recently reported by the Global Carbon Project. The data associated with this article can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.831455.

Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012

Abstract. Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008–2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16–32] Tg CH4 yr−1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008–2012 compared to 2002–2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002–2006 and 2008–2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

The carbon cycle in the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-ESM1) – Part 2: Historical simulations

Abstract. Over the last decade many climate models have evolved into Earth system models (ESMs), which are able to simulate both physical and biogeochemical processes through the inclusion of additional components such as the carbon cycle. The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) has been recently extended to include land and ocean carbon cycle components in its ACCESS-ESM1 version. A detailed description of ACCESS-ESM1 components including results from pre-industrial simulations is provided in Part 1. Here, we focus on the evaluation of ACCESS-ESM1 over the historical period (1850–2005) in terms of its capability to reproduce climate and carbon-related variables. Comparisons are performed with observations, if available, but also with other ESMs to highlight common weaknesses. We find that climate variables controlling the exchange of carbon are well reproduced. However, the aerosol forcing in ACCESS-ESM1 is somewhat larger than in other models, which leads to an overly strong cooling response in the land from about 1960 onwards. The land carbon cycle is evaluated for two scenarios: running with a prescribed leaf area index (LAI) and running with a prognostic LAI. We overestimate the seasonal mean (1.7 vs. 1.4) and peak amplitude (2.0 vs. 1.8) of the prognostic LAI at the global scale, which is common amongst CMIP5 ESMs. However, the prognostic LAI is our preferred choice, because it allows for the vegetation feedback through the coupling between LAI and the leaf carbon pool. Our globally integrated land–atmosphere flux over the historical period is 98 PgC for prescribed LAI and 137 PgC for prognostic LAI, which is in line with estimates of land use emissions (ACCESS-ESM1 does not include land use change). The integrated ocean–atmosphere flux is 83 PgC, which is in agreement with a recent estimate of 82 PgC from the Global Carbon Project for the period 1959–2005. The seasonal cycle of simulated atmospheric CO2 is close to the observed seasonal cycle (up to 1 ppm difference for the station at Mace Head and up to 2 ppm for the station at Mauna Loa), but shows a larger amplitude (up to 6 ppm) in the high northern latitudes. Overall, ACCESS-ESM1 performs well over the historical period, making it a useful tool to explore the change in land and oceanic carbon uptake in the future.

Benchmarking carbon fluxes of the ISIMIP2a biome models

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the eight ISIMIP2a biome models against independent estimates of long-term net carbon fluxes (i.e. Net Biome Productivity, NBP) over terrestrial ecosystems for the recent four decades (1971–2010). We evaluate modeled global NBP against 1) the updated global residual land sink (RLS) plus land use emissions (ELUC) from the Global Carbon Project (GCP), presented as R + L in this study by Le Quéré et al (), and 2) the land CO2 fluxes from two atmospheric inversion systems: Jena CarboScope s81_v3.8 and CAMS v15r2, referred to as FJena and FCAMS respectively. The model ensemble-mean NBP (that includes seven models with land-use change) is higher than but within the uncertainty of R + L, while the simulated positive NBP trend over the last 30 yr is lower than that from R + L and from the two inversion systems. ISIMIP2a biome models well capture the interannual variation of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes. Tropical NBP represents 31 ± 17% of global total NBP during the past decades, and the year-to-year variation of tropical NBP contributes most of the interannual variation of global NBP. According to the models, increasing Net Primary Productivity (NPP) was the main cause for the generally increasing NBP. Significant global NBP anomalies from the long-term mean between the two phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are simulated by all models (p < 0.05), which is consistent with the R + L estimate (p = 0.06), also mainly attributed to NPP anomalies, rather than to changes in heterotrophic respiration (Rh). The global NPP and NBP anomalies during ENSO events are dominated by their anomalies in tropical regions impacted by tropical climate variability. Multiple regressions between R + L, FJena and FCAMS interannual variations and tropical climate variations reveal a significant negative response of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes to tropical mean annual temperature variation, and a non-significant response to tropical annual precipitation variation. According to the models, tropical precipitation is a more important driver, suggesting that some models do not capture the roles of precipitation and temperature changes adequately.

The global methane budget 2000–2012

Abstract. The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (∼ biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003–2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 540–568. About 60 % of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50–65 %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 596–884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 64 % of the global budget, &lt; 30° N) as compared to mid (∼ 32 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (∼ 58 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 51–72, −14 %) and higher emissions in Africa (86 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 73–108, +19 %) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30–40 % on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.

A new stepwise carbon cycle data assimilation system using multiple data streams to constrain the simulated land surface carbon cycle

Abstract. Large uncertainties in land surface models (LSMs) simulations still arise from inaccurate forcing, poor description of land surface heterogeneity (soil and vegetation properties), incorrect model parameter values and incomplete representation of biogeochemical processes. The recent increase in the number and type of carbon cycle-related observations, including both in situ and remote sensing measurements, has opened a new road to optimize model parameters via robust statistical model–data integration techniques, in order to reduce the uncertainties of simulated carbon fluxes and stocks. In this study we present a carbon cycle data assimilation system that assimilates three major data streams, namely the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observations of vegetation activity, net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and latent heat (LE) flux measurements at more than 70 sites (FLUXNET), as well as atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 53 surface stations, in order to optimize the main parameters (around 180 parameters in total) of the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamics Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) LSM (version 1.9.5 used for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations). The system relies on a stepwise approach that assimilates each data stream in turn, propagating the information gained on the parameters from one step to the next. Overall, the ORCHIDEE model is able to achieve a consistent fit to all three data streams, which suggests that current LSMs have reached the level of development to assimilate these observations. The assimilation of MODIS-NDVI (step 1) reduced the growing season length in ORCHIDEE for temperate and boreal ecosystems, thus decreasing the global mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Using FLUXNET data (step 2) led to large improvements in the seasonal cycle of the NEE and LE fluxes for all ecosystems (i.e., increased amplitude for temperate ecosystems). The assimilation of atmospheric CO2, using the general circulation model (GCM) of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMDz; step 3), provides an overall constraint (i.e., constraint on large-scale net CO2 fluxes), resulting in an improvement of the fit to the observed atmospheric CO2 growth rate. Thus, the optimized model predicts a land C (carbon) sink of around 2.2 PgC yr−1 (for the 2000–2009 period), which is more compatible with current estimates from the Global Carbon Project (GCP) than the prior value. The consistency of the stepwise approach is evaluated with back-compatibility checks. The final optimized model (after step 3) does not significantly degrade the fit to MODIS-NDVI and FLUXNET data that were assimilated in the first two steps, suggesting that a stepwise approach can be used instead of the more “challenging” implementation of a simultaneous optimization in which all data streams are assimilated together. Most parameters, including the scalar of the initial soil carbon pool size, changed during the optimization with a large error reduction. This work opens new perspectives for better predictions of the land carbon budgets.

Michael R. Raupach (1950–2015)

A pioneer in fields ranging from plant-atmosphere interactions to the carbon cycle, this Australian climate scientist transformed modern micrometeorology and cofounded the Global Carbon Project.

China’s Emission Cuts

China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is claiming it significantly slowed both carbon dioxide releases and coal consumption in 2014. If confirmed and sustained, that trend could galvanize other countries’ climate change mitigation efforts as they prepare for upcoming treaty talks in Paris. China’s CO2 emissions remained roughly flat between 2013 and 2014, according to Chinese government statistics and other sources, says Glen Peters with the Global Carbon Project, an international environmental research consortium that tracks CO2 emissions. The findings have surprised experts who watched China’s CO2 emissions nearly double over the past decade. The Chinese government recently announced that 2014 saw a 2.9% reduction in coal consumption in absolute terms. The news follows years of double-digit annual growth: The 2002–12 period saw a 142% increase in coal burned in China, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Moreover, China’s largest coal producer, Shenhua Energy Co., projects a ...

Michael Raupach (1950–2015)

Michael Raupach (1950–2015)

Multiannual changes of CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; emissions in China: indirect estimates derived from satellite measurements of tropospheric NO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; columns

Abstract. Multiannual satellite measurements of tropospheric NO2 columns are used for evaluation of CO2 emission changes in China in the period from 1996 to 2008. Indirect top-down annual estimates of CO2 emissions are derived from the satellite NO2 column measurements by means of a simple inverse modeling procedure involving simulations performed with the CHIMERE mesoscale chemistry–transport model and the CO2-to-NOx emission ratios from the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) global anthropogenic emission inventory and Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS). Exponential trends in the normalized time series of annual emissions are evaluated separately for the periods from 1996 to 2001 and from 2001 to 2008. The results indicate that the both periods manifest strong positive trends in the CO2 emissions, and that the trend in the second period was significantly larger than the trend in the first period. Specifically, the trends in the first and second periods are best estimated to be in the range from 3.7 to 8.3 and from 11.0 to 13.2% per year, respectively, taking into account statistical uncertainties and differences between the CO2-to-NOx emission ratios from the EDGAR and REAS inventories. Comparison of our indirect top-down estimates of the CO2 emission changes with the corresponding bottom-up estimates provided by the EDGAR (version 4.2) and Global Carbon Project (GCP) glomal emission inventories reveals that while acceleration of the CO2 emission growth in the considered period is a common feature of both kinds of estimates, nonlinearity in the CO2 emission changes may be strongly exaggerated in the global emission inventories. Specifically, the atmospheric NO2 observations do not confirm the existence of a sharp bend in the emission inventory data time series in the period from 2000 to 2002. A significant quantitative difference is revealed between the bottom-up and indirect top-down estimates of the CO2 emission trend in the period from 1996 to 2001 (specifically, the trend was not positive according to the global emission inventories, but is strongly positive in our estimates). These results confirm the findings of earlier studies that indicated probable large uncertainties in the energy production and other activity data for China from international energy statistics used as the input information in the global emission inventories. For the period from 2001 to 2008, some quantitative differences between the different kinds of estimates are found to be in the range of possible systematic uncertainties associated with our estimation method. In general, satellite measurements of tropospheric NO2 are shown to be a useful source of information on CO2 sources collocated with sources of nitrogen oxides; the corresponding potential of these measurements should be exploited further in future studies.

Welcome to Carbon Management

Richard A Houghton is Deputy Director and Senior Scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center in Falmouth, MA, USA. The Center is an independent, nonprofit institute focused on environmental science, education and policy. Houghton has studied the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle and climate change for nearly 30 years, in particular documenting changes in land use and determining the sources and sinks of carbon-attributable land management. He has participated in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessments on Climate Change. He received his PhD in ecology from the State University of New York at Stony Brook, NY, USA in 1979 and has worked as a research scientist at Brookhaven National Laboratory, NY, USA, and the Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods Hole, MA, USA. He has been at the Woods Hole Research Center since 1987, serving as Acting Director in 2009 and serving for 2 years (1993–1994) as a visiting senior scientist at NASA headquarters in Washington, DC, USA.Shobhakar Dhakal is one of the two Executive Directors of the Global Carbon Project – an international scientific program dedicated to the better understanding of the carbon cycle and its management. His areas of research are the quantification and modeling of the direct and indirect energy and carbon flows in urban areas, low carbon city scenarios, cities’ energy, and climate-mitigation policy analyses and cross-comparative case studies. He has authored and edited several scholarly publications including books, reports, journal special issues, journal articles and others. Dhakal is serving as one of the coordinating lead authors of the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC for the Working Group III. He is also currently one of the lead authors of the Global Energy Assessment and a member of the Consensus Panel on Low Carbon Cities of the Academy of Sciences of South Africa. Dhakal recently served as a member of the Cities Energy Modeling Group convened by the International Energy Agency, and as an international expert to the Taskforce on Urban Development and Energy Efficiency of the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development.

Challenges of Urban and Regional Carbon Management and the Scientific Response

How urbanization unfolds in the text few decades and which urban development path we choose are potentially critical to the efforts aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions. However, our understanding of urban, as a unit or system, and its cross-scale linkages in the context of carbon management is at infancy state. In this context, this article outlines, the key challenges and introduces a new scientific initiative - Urban and Regional Carbon Management Initiative of the Global Carbon Project, which has raised key scientific questions with the aim to find reasonable answers. This article mainly showcases key science questions, past activities and future outlook with the aim to reach out to the related scientific and policy communities.

The Global Coastal Ocean: Interdisciplinary Regional Studies and Syntheses

Coastal zones are where land, rivers, atmosphere, seas, sediments, and biota meet, and thus where spatial and temporal heterogeneity is substantial. This volume of The Sea complements and supplements volumes 10 and 11, as well as Part B of Volume 14, which deal generally with the physical oceanography of global coastal oceans, and Volume 13, which examines multiscale interdisciplinary processes on sediment, biogeochemical, and ecosystem dynamics. Because of extreme complexity, however, analyzing and synthesizing in an interdisciplinary manner observations from global coastal oceans is difficult. Because most worldwide observation systems are complicated, many global programs, such as the System for Analysis, Research and Training for Global Change Research (START), the Global Carbon Project (GCP), and the Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS), have all promoted regional research for achieving the final goal of global synthesis. This volume takes the same approach.

Climate Change: New Trends and Projections

The two most dangerous problems facing humankind are (1) the excessive and expanding human population, and (2) anthropogenic greenhouse gas production. Of course the latter problem results from the former one, not the other way around, so a reduction in the number of humans on Earth will be required to solve any of our serious environmental problems. Hopefully, this will result from a decrease in the fertility rate rather than an increase in the death rate. But how serious is the problem of global warming, and what are the most recent trends and developments? Production of CO2 and other types of mangenerated pollution has been increasing dramatically in recent years. At the International Conference on Global Environmental Change in Beijing, November 2006, scientists reported that despite efforts to reduce carbon emissions, they have actually increased. Specifically, the report documented that in the period between 2000 and 2005 as compared with the period between 1990 and 1995, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption increased by 400 PERCENT! The data were published by the Global Carbon Project (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org), a component of the Earth System Science Partnership. Dr Mike Raupach, Chair of the Global Carbon Project, noted that “The findings indicate that recent efforts to reduce emissions have had virtually no impact on emissions growth, and that effective caps are urgently needed.” Anthropogenic carbon dioxide release over the last 5 years are close to one of the more pessimistic emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) called “A1B.” This scenario assumes that at least 50% of energy produced over the next century will come from fossil fuel consumption. The recent increases were attributed to the tremendous enhancement in fossil fuel consumption in China and India as well as the actions of the U.S. and Australia in disregarding and even undermining the efforts of the Kyoto Accord. Worse, assuming “business as usual,” the data suggest that at least an 8-fold increase in CO2 emissions will occur over the next 10 years. None of the recent projections had anticipated such a rapid rise in anthropogenic CO2 production. Most frighteningly, due to the phenomenon of environmental inertia, if and when anthropogenic emissions do begin to decrease, atmospheric CO2 will continue to rise for at least a century. Moreover, global temperatures will continue to increase for two or more centuries, locking the world into continuing Water Air Soil Pollut (2010) 205 (Suppl 1):S15–S16 DOI 10.1007/s11270-007-9342-z

Establishing A Earth Observation Product Service For The Terrestrial Carbon Community: The Globcarbon Initiative

'Greenhouse gases', especially carbon dioxide, are intimately connected to climate change. To understand the future evolution of the climate system and find ways to manage the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the processes and feedbacks that drive the carbon cycle must first be understood. However, our current knowledge of spatial and temporal patterns is uncertain, particularly over land and in regions of potentially high sensitivity to change like the boreal zone. The European Space Agency (ESA) GLOBCARBON project aims to generate fully calibrated estimates of at-land products quasi-independent of the original Earth Observation source for use primarily in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, but also as a contribution to the Global Carbon Project, a cooperation between the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme, International Human Dimensions Programme and the World Climate Research Programme to aid understanding of global carbon cycling. The service will feature estimation of global burned area, the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR), leaf area index (LAI) and Vegetation Growth Cycle. The demonstrator will focus on ten complete years, from 1998 to 2007 when overlap exists between ESA Earth Observation sensors and others that are synergistic. However, the system will be flexible so that it is not dependent on any single satellite sensor and therefore can be retrospectively applied to existing archives and used with future satellite sensors.