Climate Change: New Trends and Projections

Abstract

The two most dangerous problems facing humankind are (1) the excessive and expanding human population, and (2) anthropogenic greenhouse gas production. Of course the latter problem results from the former one, not the other way around, so a reduction in the number of humans on Earth will be required to solve any of our serious environmental problems. Hopefully, this will result from a decrease in the fertility rate rather than an increase in the death rate. But how serious is the problem of global warming, and what are the most recent trends and developments? Production of CO2 and other types of mangenerated pollution has been increasing dramatically in recent years. At the International Conference on Global Environmental Change in Beijing, November 2006, scientists reported that despite efforts to reduce carbon emissions, they have actually increased. Specifically, the report documented that in the period between 2000 and 2005 as compared with the period between 1990 and 1995, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption increased by 400 PERCENT! The data were published by the Global Carbon Project (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org), a component of the Earth System Science Partnership. Dr Mike Raupach, Chair of the Global Carbon Project, noted that “The findings indicate that recent efforts to reduce emissions have had virtually no impact on emissions growth, and that effective caps are urgently needed.” Anthropogenic carbon dioxide release over the last 5 years are close to one of the more pessimistic emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) called “A1B.” This scenario assumes that at least 50% of energy produced over the next century will come from fossil fuel consumption. The recent increases were attributed to the tremendous enhancement in fossil fuel consumption in China and India as well as the actions of the U.S. and Australia in disregarding and even undermining the efforts of the Kyoto Accord. Worse, assuming “business as usual,” the data suggest that at least an 8-fold increase in CO2 emissions will occur over the next 10 years. None of the recent projections had anticipated such a rapid rise in anthropogenic CO2 production. Most frighteningly, due to the phenomenon of environmental inertia, if and when anthropogenic emissions do begin to decrease, atmospheric CO2 will continue to rise for at least a century. Moreover, global temperatures will continue to increase for two or more centuries, locking the world into continuing Water Air Soil Pollut (2010) 205 (Suppl 1):S15–S16 DOI 10.1007/s11270-007-9342-z