Global Budget Research Articles

Budgetary processes in medical organizations under a global budget payment system

This study examines the budgetary process of medical organizations under a global budget payment system. Using questionnaire results from budgeting supervisors, four key effects are identified: the motivational effect of budgetary participation, the information effect of budgeting information system (BIS) characteristics, the cognitive effect of budget quality, and the performance effect of budget performance. The results reveal that high budgetary participation enhances BIS characteristics (i.e. control, communication, and forecasting), which in turn improve budget quality and performance. Furthermore, both environmental competition and unpredictability significantly impact budgetary participation, and unpredictability also augments BIS characteristics. This study proposes a theoretical fit model and provides insights for medical organizations’ budgetary practices.

Soil Moisture Threshold of Methane Uptake in Alpine Grassland Ecosystems.

Methane (CH4) uptake in alpine ecosystems is an important component of the global CH4 sink. However, large uncertainties remain regarding the magnitude and spatial patterns of CH4 uptake, owing to its extensive spatial variability, diverse controlling factors, and limited regional-scale observations. Here, we investigated field ecosystem CH4 uptake along a 3200-km transect across various alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). We found a substantial spatial variation in insitu CH4 uptake among alpine grasslands, with the highest rates in drier regions of the mid-western QTP. Soil moisture was the most important factor controlling CH4 uptake, exhibiting a remarkably low threshold of 6.2 ± 0.1 v/v %. Below this threshold, CH4 uptake was constrained by soil moisture, moisture-induced nitrogen limitation, and high temperatures. Above this threshold, CH4 uptake was mainly limited by gas diffusion and low temperatures. By integrating grid predictors with a random forest model trained on 1851 field measurements encompassing both our observations and a regional synthesis across the QTP, we estimated a regional CH4 uptake of 0.88 ± 0.020 Tg CH4 year-1 from all alpine grasslands on the QTP. This higher estimate, primarily driven by alpine steppes, was significantly greater than current regional estimates from global CH4 models. Our findings highlight the importance of CH4 sink in dry alpine ecosystems characterized by low soil moisture, suggesting that the contribution of CH4 sink in drylands may have been substantially underestimated in the current global CH4 budget.

Advancements and opportunities to improve bottom–up estimates of global wetland methane emissions

Abstract Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH4), contributing approximately 30% of total surface CH4 emissions, and they have been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget based on the most recent Global Carbon Project CH4 report. High uncertainties in the bottom–up estimates of wetland CH4 emissions pose significant challenges for accurately understanding their spatiotemporal variations, and for the scientific community to monitor wetland CH4 emissions from space. In fact, there are large disagreements between bottom–up estimates versus top–down estimates inferred from inversion of atmospheric CH4 concentrations. To address these critical gaps, we review recent development, validation, and applications of bottom–up estimates of global wetland CH4 emissions, as well as how they are used in top–down inversions. These bottom–up estimates, using (1) empirical biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WetCHARTs: 125–208 TgCH4 yr−1); (2) process-based biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WETCHIMP: 190 ± 39 TgCH4 yr−1); and (3) data-driven machine learning approach (e.g. UpCH4: 146 ± 43 TgCH4 yr−1). Bottom–up estimates are subject to significant uncertainties (∼80 Tg CH4 yr−1), and the ranges of different estimates do not overlap, further amplifying the overall uncertainty when combining multiple data products. These substantial uncertainties highlight gaps in our understanding of wetland CH4 biogeochemistry and wetland inundation dynamics. Major tropical and arctic wetland complexes are regional hotspots of CH4 emissions. However, the scarcity of satellite data over the tropics and northern high latitudes offer limited information for top–down inversions to improve bottom–up estimates. Recent advances in surface measurements of CH4 fluxes (e.g. FLUXNET-CH4) across a wide range of ecosystems including bogs, fens, marshes, and forest swamps provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve existing bottom–up estimates of wetland CH4 estimates. We suggest that continuous long-term surface measurements at representative wetlands, high fidelity wetland mapping, combined with an appropriate modeling framework, will be needed to significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH4 emissions. There is also a pressing unmet need for fine-resolution and high-precision satellite CH4 observations directed at wetlands.

Improving Carbon Budgets by Accounting for Inorganic Carbon in Seagrass Ecosystems.

While seagrass ecosystems are acknowledged for their role as blue carbon sinks, significant uncertainties remain regarding the sequestration of sediment inorganic carbon (SIC) and its broader implications for carbon cycling. These knowledge gaps hinder a comprehensive assessment of the contribution of seagrass ecosystems to the global carbon budget. To address this gap, the drivers and sources of SIC in nine seagrass ecosystems in the tropical Indo-Pacific were analyzed using partial least squares path modeling and carbon and oxygen isotopes binding Bayesian mixing models. We found that SIC content varies regionally, ranging from 0.03% to 10.18%, and is positively correlated with seagrass biomass, temperature, salinity, and coarse-grained sediment. SIC stocks ranged from 1.53 to 203.17 Mg C ha-1, confirming the role of tropical Indo-Pacific seagrass ecosystems as a significant pool for SIC. SIC content and stock beneath seagrass ecosystems are generally higher than those in unvegetated areas due to the capacity to trap particles of the seagrass canopy. SIC beneath seagrass ecosystems affected by runoff is mainly from terrestrial inputs. Conversely, SIC under seagrass ecosystems regulated by seawater is primarily derived from local production and inputs from adjacent ecosystems and fish farming wastewater. This study provides a robust method to enhance the accuracy of blue carbon accounting in seagrass ecosystems by the inclusion of inorganic carbon burial.

Spatiotemporal distribution of marine aerosols and gaseous species over the North Pacific Ocean.

Observational studies of marine aerosols are essential for understanding the global aerosol budget and its environmental impacts. This study presents simultaneous in-situ measurements of major ionic components (Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, NH4+, K+, Ca2+, Na+, and Mg2+) in aerosols and gaseous species (HCl, HNO3, HONO, SO2, and NH3) over the North Pacific Ocean from July 4 to 15 and September 19 to October 3, 2022. Using high temporal resolution instruments aboard the Republic of Korea's icebreaker research vessel Araon, this study aimed to (1) report the spatial and temporal distributions of aerosols and gaseous species, (2) estimate the source contributions of continental anthropogenic pollutants, and (3) assess the influence of aerosol chemical composition and gaseous species on aerosol acidity and water content. Our results revealed a significant decline in anthropogenic contributions, from 72.4±11.2% in the Yellow Sea and East Sea to 32.0±10.8% in the remote Pacific, accompanied by an increase in natural aerosols from 27.6±11.2% to 68.0±10.8%. Elevated concentrations of ammonia (NH3) and nitrous acid (HONO) were observed in the remote ocean, likely associated with the marine environment and biological activities. This increase in NH3, along with a decrease in sulfate concentrations, contributed to the formation of more alkaline aerosols in the remote ocean. Despite the limited availability of previous studies for direct comparisons, our findings align with observed trends and highlight the unique physicochemical properties of marine aerosols. These results enhance our understanding for the interactions between continental pollutants and marine environments, emphasizing the distinct characteristics of marine aerosols and their potential role in modifying atmospheric processes and influencing climate change.

Association of a State-Wide Alternative Payment Model for Rural Hospitals With Bypass for Elective Surgeries.

This study aimed to measure the changes in rural hospital bypass for 11 common elective surgeries following the implementation of the Pennsylvania Rural Health Model (PARHM), a global budget payment model. We leveraged a natural experiment arising from the phase-in of PHARM in Pennsylvania. We conducted a comparative interrupted time series analysis to assess changes in rural hospital bypass, comparing trends in rural hospital bypass among patients in hospital service areas (HSAs) with PARHM-participating hospitals to patients in control HSAs with hospitals eligible for but not participating in PARHM. Analyses accounted for staggered entry into PARHM and examined outcomes up to 4 years post-entry. We used Pennsylvania all-payer visit-level inpatient discharge data (2016-2022) to measure rural hospital bypass, encompassing 175,138 surgeries. The average bypass rate for elective surgeries was 59.9%, with an increasing trend observed during the study period. Overall, differential changes in bypass rates between PARHM-participating and control HSAs were not statistically significant, from a low of 0.53 percentage points (-8.17-9.22) among Cohort 2 HSAs and a high of 5.96 percentage points (-4.63-16.55) among Cohort 1 HSAs. However, among critical access hospitals, PARHM participation was associated with a significant relative increase in levels and trends in bypass rates compared to controls, from a low of 9.12 percentage points (2.45-15.79) among Cohort 1 HSAs and a high of 29.70 percentage points (12.54-46.86) among Cohort 2 HSAs. These relative increases were largely due to a stable rate in PARHM-participating HSAs and a marked decrease in control HSAs. This study fills a gap in the relationship between global budgets and hospital bypass. Although PARHM did not broadly alter rural bypass rates overall, the differential increase in bypass among HSAs with CAHs participating in PARHM suggests meaningful effect heterogeneity, warranting further research and analysis of impacts on patient outcomes.

Seasonal variabilities in sources, distribution and transport of dissolved organic carbon from a rapidly eroding coastal estuary in Mississippi River delta plain.

The fate of soil organic carbon lost from eroding coastal wetlands is of great importance. A large fraction of this carbon upon erosion is released as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and inorganic carbon (DIC) into adjacent water bodies while the remainder is lost to atmosphere as CO2. In this study, we investigate the seasonal concentrations and transport of DOC in Barataria Basin, Louisiana, USA, which borders the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM). This basin is currently experiencing one of the highest rates of land-loss in the US. Seasonal measurements of DOC, DIC and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) were carried out during winter, spring, summer, and fall of 2020-2021. The average DOC in the Barataria Basin ranged from 648.03μM of C in winter and 867.88μM of C in spring, whereas the average DIC varied between 2582.47μM in fall to 1553.26μM in winter. Humification index and statistical analysis suggests a strong influence of terrigenous organic matter input in the northern part of the bay. The seamless creek-to-ocean SCHISM 3D model validated by data from the east coast and the coast of GOM was implemented in this study to compute the discharge rate at the Barataria Pass followed by assessing the seasonal DOC transport. The DOC exports were highest in spring, estimated at 201 tons/day and translated to approximately 0.043 Tg on an annual basis. This study highlights the importance of DOC exports from small estuaries, which should be incorporated in the global ocean carbon budget.

A principle-based framework to determine countries’ fair warming contributions to the Paris Agreement

Equity is a cornerstone of global climate policy, yet differing perspectives mean that international agreement on how to allocate mitigation efforts remains elusive. A rich literature informs this question, but a gap remains in approaches that appropriately consider non-CO2 emissions and their warming contributions. In this study, we address this gap and define a global warming budget applicable to all anthropogenic greenhouse gases that is allocated to countries based on principles drawn from international treaties and environmental law. We find that by 2021 a range of 84 to 90 countries, including but not limited to all major developed countries, exhausted their budget share compatible with keeping warming to 1.5 °C (with 50% likelihood) under all allocation approaches considered in this study. A similar picture emerges for limiting warming to 2 °C (with 67% likelihood). A large group of countries will hence exceed their fair shares even if their pledges under the Paris Agreement represent their deepest possible emission reductions. Considerations of fairness should therefore start exploring aspects beyond domestic emissions reductions.

Deep soil contributions to global nitrogen budgets

Previous estimates of deep soil inorganic nitrogen (N) reservoirs have been mainly limited to desert soils, however, recent evidence suggests that deep soil pools are far more ubiquitous across biomes and therefore may be important for global N budgets. Here, we used observations from 280 deep soil profiles (2-205 m) across a wide array of ecosystem and land cover types to seek insight into the full geospatial variation of deep soil nitrate. Using a random forest machine learning approach we estimate a total deep soil nitrate pool of 15.2 ( ± 1.1 SD) Pg of N. When included in the global soil N pool, our estimates of deep soil N increase the global N storage budget by 16%. Estimating these deep soil N pools continues to add to our understanding of soils as a fate for anthropogenically fixed N, and the critical role that deep soils play in our biosphere.

Metabolic interactions underpinning high methane fluxes across terrestrial freshwater wetlands

Current estimates of wetland contributions to the global methane budget carry high uncertainty, particularly in accurately predicting emissions from high methane-emitting wetlands. Microorganisms drive methane cycling, but little is known about their conservation across wetlands. To address this, we integrate 16S rRNA amplicon datasets, metagenomes, metatranscriptomes, and annual methane flux data across 9 wetlands, creating the Multi-Omics for Understanding Climate Change (MUCC) v2.0.0 database. This resource is used to link microbiome composition to function and methane emissions, focusing on methane-cycling microbes and the networks driving carbon decomposition. We identify eight methane-cycling genera shared across wetlands and show wetland-specific metabolic interactions in marshes, revealing low connections between methanogens and methanotrophs in high-emitting wetlands. Methanoregula emerged as a hub methanogen across networks and is a strong predictor of methane flux. In these wetlands it also displays the functional potential for methylotrophic methanogenesis, highlighting the importance of this pathway in these ecosystems. Collectively, our findings illuminate trends between microbial decomposition networks and methane flux while providing an extensive publicly available database to advance future wetland research.

Improved Mechanistic Modeling on Reproducing Particle-Bound Mercury in the Marine Atmosphere.

Mercury (Hg) is a neurotoxic pollutant that is ubiquitous on the planet and receives global concern because of its adverse health effects. Particle-bound HgP formation in the atmosphere stems mainly from the adsorption of reactive gaseous HgII on aerosol particles, particularly sea salt aerosol. However, the observed comparable abundance of HgP over HgII in the marine atmosphere has not been reproduced by traditional statistics-based schemes, which were constructed by continental observations. This study incorporated an improved mechanistic scheme in an atmospheric chemical transport model to simulate SSA-bound HgP cycling processes in the marine atmosphere. Results show that a widely used statistics-based scheme could reproduce atmospheric HgP concentrations over continents but failed to reproduce the concentrations over the ocean. The HgP concentrations particularly relative abundance of HgP over HgII in the marine atmosphere could be successfully reproduced by the process-based scheme. Accordingly, a new global atmospheric Hg cycling budget was constructed, manifesting mainly in the atmospheric burden of 4 Mg, dry deposition of 160 Mg yr-1, and wet deposition of 1410 Mg yr-1 for SSA-bound HgP. The new insight on the global atmospheric Hg budget sheds light on the re-examination of Hg deposition risks in the ocean owing to a transition from previously recognized gaseous HgII deposition to unrecognized particulate HgP deposition over the ocean.

Methane emissions from the Nord Stream subsea pipeline leaks

The amount of methane released to the atmosphere from the Nord Stream subsea pipeline leaks remains uncertain, as reflected in a wide range of estimates1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17–18. A lack of information regarding the temporal variation in atmospheric emissions has made it challenging to reconcile pipeline volumetric (bottom-up) estimates1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7–8 with measurement-based (top-down) estimates8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17–18. Here we simulate pipeline rupture emission rates and integrate these with methane dissolution and sea-surface outgassing estimates9,10 to model the evolution of atmospheric emissions from the leaks. We verify our modelled atmospheric emissions by comparing them with top-down point-in-time emission-rate estimates and cumulative emission estimates derived from airborne11, satellite8,12, 13–14 and tall tower data. We obtain consistency between our modelled atmospheric emissions and top-down estimates and find that 465 ± 20 thousand metric tons of methane were emitted to the atmosphere. Although, to our knowledge, this represents the largest recorded amount of methane released from a single transient event, it is equivalent to 0.1% of anthropogenic methane emissions for 2022. The impact of the leaks on the global atmospheric methane budget brings into focus the numerous other anthropogenic methane sources that require mitigation globally. Our analysis demonstrates that diverse, complementary measurement approaches are needed to quantify methane emissions in support of the Global Methane Pledge19.

Preventable hospitalizations through ED: does the number of hospital beds matter under the global budget in a single-payer system in Taiwan?

Taiwan implemented global hospital budgeting with a floating-point value, which created a prisoner's dilemma. As a result, hospitals increased service volume, which caused the floating-point value to drop to less than one New Taiwan Dollar (NTD). The recent increase in the number of hospital beds and the call to enhance the floating-point value to one NTD raise concerns about the potential for increased financial burden without adding value to patient care if hospitals expand their bed capacity for volume-based competition. The present study aimed to examine the relationship between the supply of hospital beds and hospitalizations following an emergency department (ED) visit (called ED hospitalizations) by using diabetes-related ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) that are preventable and discretionary as an example. The study was a pooled cross-sectional design analyzing 2011-2015 population-based claims data in Taiwan. The dependent variable was a dummy variable representing an ED hospitalization, with a treat-and-leave ED visit as the reference group. The key independent variable is the number of hospital beds per 1,000 populations. Multivariate logistic regression models with and without a clustering function were used for the analyses. Approximately 59.26% of diabetes-related ACSCs ED visits resulted in ED hospitalizations. The relationship between the supply of hospital beds and ED hospitalizations was statistically significant (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.09-1.14; P < 0.001) in the model without clustering but was statistically insignificant in the model with clustering (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 0.94-1.12; P > 0.05). Several social risk factors were positively associated with the likelihood of ED hospitalizations, such as low income and the percentage of the population without a high school diploma. In contrast, other factors, such as female patients and the Charlson comorbidity index, were negatively associated with the likelihood of ED hospitalizations. Under hospital global budgeting with a floating-point value mechanism, increases in hospital beds likely motivate hospitals to admit ED patients with preventable and discretionary conditions. Our study emphasizes the urgent need to add value-based incentive mechanisms to the current global budget payment. The value-based incentive mechanisms may encourage providers to focus on quality of patient care by addressing social risk factors rather than engage in volume-based competition, which would improve population health while reducing preventable ED visits and hospitalizations.

Temperature has an enhanced role in sediment N2O and N2 fluxes in wider rivers.

Riverine N2O and N2 fluxes, key components of the global nitrogen budget, are known to be influenced by river size (often represented by average river width), yet the specific mechanisms behind these effects remain unclear. This study examined how environmental and microbial factors influenced sediment N2O and N2 fluxes across rivers with varying widths (2.8 to 2,000 m) in China. Sediment acted as sources of both N2O and N2 emissions, with both N2 (0.2 to 20.8 mmol m-2 d-1) and N2O fluxes (0.7-54.2 μmol m-2 d-1) decreasing significantly as river width increased. N2 fluxes were positively correlated with denitrifying bacterial abundance, whereas N2O fluxes, when normalized by the abundance of denitrifying bacteria, were negatively correlated with the abundance of N2O-reducing microbes. Water physicochemical factors, particularly temperature and nitrate, were more important drivers of these fluxes than sediment factors. Nitrate significantly increased denitrifying bacterial abundance, whereas higher temperatures enhanced cell-specific activity. Lower N2O and N2 emissions in wider rivers were attributed to decreased denitrifying microbial abundance and lower denitrification rates, in addition to the commonly assumed reduction in exogenous N2O and N2 inputs. Rolling regression analysis showed that nitrate concentration had a stronger effect on sediment N2O and N2 fluxes in narrower rivers, whereas temperature was more influential in wider rivers. This difference is attributed to more stable nitrate concentrations and decreased nitrogen removal efficiency in wider rivers, while temperature variation remained consistent across all river widths. Beyond sediments, temperature had a greater effect on excess N2O concentrations than nitrate in the overlying water of wider rivers (>165 m), highlighting its broader impact. This study provides new biogeochemical insights into how river width influences sediment N2O and N2 fluxes and highlights the importance of incorporating temperature into flux predictions, particularly for wider rivers.

HOD-dependent systematics in Emission Line Galaxies for the DESI 2024 BAO analysis

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will provide precise measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) to constrain the expansion history of the Universe and set stringent constraints on dark energy. Therefore, precise control of the global error budget due to various systematic effects is required for the DESI 2024 BAO analysis. In this work, we estimate the level of systematics induced in the DESI BAO analysis due the assumed Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model for the Emission Line Galaxy (ELG) tracer. We make use of mock galaxy catalogs constructed by fitting various HOD models to early DESI data, namely the One-Percent survey data. Our analysis includes typical HOD models for the ELG tracer used in the literature as well as extensions to the baseline models. Among the extensions, we consider various recipes for galactic conformity and assembly bias. We use 25 AbacusSummit simulations under the ΛCDM cosmology for each HOD model and perform independent analyses in Fourier space and in configuration space. To recover the BAO signal from our mocks we perform BAO reconstruction and apply the control variates technique to reduce sample variance noise. Our BAO analyses can recover the isotropic BAO parameter α iso within 0.1% and the Alcock Paczynski parameter α AP within 0.3%. Overall, we find that the systematic error due to the HOD dependence is below 0.17%, with the Fourier space analysis being more robust against the HOD systematics. We conclude that our analysis pipeline is robust enough against the HOD systematics for the ELG tracer in the DESI 2024 BAO analysis, for the assumptions made.

Impact of land conversion on environmental conditions and methane emissions from a tropical peatland.

Tropical peatlands are significant sources of methane (CH₄), but their contribution to the global CH₄ budget remains poorly quantified due to the lack of long-term, continuous and high-frequency flux measurements. To address this gap, we measured net ecosystem CH4 exchange (NEE-CH4) using eddy covariance technique throughout the conversion of a tropical peat swamp forest to an oil palm plantation. This encompassed the periods before, during and after conversion periods from 2014 to 2020, during which substantial environmental shifts were observed. Draining the peatland substantially lowered mean monthly groundwater levels from -20.0±14.2cm before conversion to -102.3±31.6cm during conversion and increased slightly to -96.5±19.3cm after conversion. Forest removal increased mean monthly soil temperature by 2.3 to 3.1°C, reducing net radiation (Rn) and raising vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Following the tree removal, controlled burning temporarily warmed air temperature by 8°C, increased VPD and significantly attenuated Rn, resulting in negative values owing to radiation interception by smoke and increased surface warming. Contrary to expectations that drainage would lower CH4 emissions, the site remained a consistent net source, with even higher emissions observed during and after conversion. The mean monthly NEE-CH4 during conversion (23.3±8.6mg C m-2 d-1) was about 2-times higher than before conversion (12.1±5.3mg C m-2 d-1) and about 1.5-times higher than after conversion (16.3±4.1mg C m-2 d-1). The heightened CH4 release is likely attributable to emissions from drainage ditches, underscoring their significant role in post-conversion CH4 dynamics. Despite its short duration, controlled burning substantially elevated NEE-CH4, ranging from 0.04 to 0.91mg C m-2s-1. Our findings highlight the substantial impact of land conversion on peatland CH4 dynamics, emphasizing the need for accurate flux measurements across various conversion stages to refine global CH4 budgets.

Global Budget Revenue in Maryland Does Not Reduce Length of Stay After Liver Transplant

Global Budget Revenue in Maryland Does Not Reduce Length of Stay After Liver Transplant

Evolution of global polio eradication strategies: targets, vaccines, and supplemental immunization activities (SIAs)

ABSTRACT Background Despite multiple revisions of targets and timelines in polio eradication plans since 1988, including changes in supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) that increase immunity above routine immunization (RI) coverage, poliovirus transmission continues as of 2024. Methods We reviewed polio eradication plans and Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) annual reports and budgets to characterize key phases of polio eradication, the evolution of poliovirus vaccines, and the role of SIAs. We used polio epidemiology to provide context for successes and failures and updated prior modeling to show the contribution of SIAs in achieving and maintaining low polio incidence compared to expected incidence for the counterfactual of RI only. Results We identified multiple phases of polio eradication that included shifts in targets and timelines and the introduction of different poliovirus vaccines, which influenced polio epidemiology. Notable shifts occurred in GPEI investments in SIAs since 2001, particularly since 2016. Modeling results suggest that SIAs play(ed) a key role in increasing (and maintaining) high population immunity to levels required to eradicate poliovirus transmission globally. Conclusions Shifts in polio eradication strategy and poliovirus vaccine usage in SIAs provide important context for understanding polio epidemiology, delayed achievement of polio eradication milestones, and complexity of the polio endgame.

Sea Ice Modulates Air–Sea Methane Flux in the Southern Ocean

AbstractThe Southern Ocean (SO) is predicted to be a weak sink for atmospheric CH4, although the magnitude is uncertain due to a lack of observations of the marginal ice zone (MIZ). Using both eddy covariance and bulk formula flux measurements from the icebreaker R/V Xuelong2, we found that the eastern SO during an austral summer was a sink for CH4. The strongest downward CH4 fluxes occurred in areas of low sea ice concentration (10%–40%), where sea‐ice melting resulted in low temperature and salinity, increasing CH4 solubility. The CH4 fluxes are weak in regions of high sea ice concentration (&gt;50%) due to the blocking effect of sea ice. We estimate that the uptake of CH4 during one summer month in the study region offsets 1.2%–2.6% of annual global oceanic CH4 emissions. Suggesting that the Antarctic MIZ is more important in the global CH4 budget than previously thought.

Integrating Satellite Observations and Hydrological Models to Unravel Large TROPOMI Methane Emissions in South Sudan Wetlands

This study presents a comprehensive investigation of Methane (CH4) emissions in the wetlands of South Sudan, employing an integrated approach that combines TROPOMI satellite data, river altimetry, and hydrological model outputs. TROPOMI data show a strong increase in CH4 concentrations over the Sudd wetlands from 2018 to 2022. We quantify CH4 emissions using these data. We find a twofold emission increase from 2018 to 2019 (9.2 ± 2.4 Tg yr−1) to 2020 to 2022 (16.3 ± 3.3 Tg yr−1). River altimetry data analysis elucidates the interconnected dynamics of river systems and CH4 emissions. We identify correlations and temporal alignments across South Sudan wetlands catchments. Our findings indicate a clear signature of ENSO driving the wetland dynamics and CH4 emissions in the Sudd by altering precipitation patterns, hydrology, and temperature, leading to variations in anaerobic conditions conducive to CH4 production. Significant correlations are found between CH4 emissions and PCR-GLOBWB-simulated soil moisture dynamics, groundwater recharge, and surface water parameters within specific catchments, underscoring the importance of these parameters on the catchment scale. Lagged correlations were found between hydrological parameters and CH4 emissions, particularly with PCR-GLOBWB-simulated capillary rise. These correlations shed light on the temporal dynamics of this poorly studied and quantified source of CH4. Our findings contribute to the current knowledge of wetland CH4 emissions and highlight the urgency of addressing the complex interplay between hydrology and carbon dynamics in these ecosystems that play a critical role in the global CH4 budget.