GHG Reduction Targets Research Articles

A meta-analysis of the schematic design process of deep retrofit projects

Deep retrofits of the existing building stock will be necessary to meet global emissions reductions targets. One building archetype, low-rise MURBs have been neglected in terms of research and funding for deep retrofits. A meta-analysis was conducted that compares and contrasts the schematic design approach taken for six such buildings in British Columbia which are scheduled to undergo deep retrofits with the goal of reducing GHG emissions by 80%. The analysis showed that design teams had converged toward common solutions for each building while achieving the GHG reduction target. The recommended measures include electrification of space and domestic hot water heating, adding insulation through overcladding, air sealing, ventilators for each unit, and double pane windows. A life cycle cost analysis showed that the economic viability of deep retrofits were dependent on energy price forecasts, capital cost reductions through market forces and transformation, or incentives cover the non-monetizable co-benefits of deep retrofits such as improved resiliency to climate-change or reducing overheating and air quality risks. The meta-analysis can help to streamline the early-stage and schematic design process for such buildings, which is critical to increasing the retrofit rate. This process could be replicated for other building types and construction archetypes.

Various Marine Fuel Scenarios to Meet IMO GHG Reduction Target by 2050

Various Marine Fuel Scenarios to Meet IMO GHG Reduction Target by 2050

Mitigation of gaseous emissions from dairy livestock: A farm-level method to examine the financial implications

Feeding the world's population while minimising the contribution of agriculture to climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing modern society. This challenge is particularly pronounced for dairy production where the carbon footprint of products and the mitigation costs are high, relative to other food stuffs. This paper reviews a number of mitigation measures that may be adopted by dairy farmers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from their farms. A simulation model is developed to assess the cost-benefit of a range of mitigation measures. The model is applied to data from Ireland, a country with a large export-oriented dairy industry, for a range of farms including top, middle and bottom performing farms from a profitability perspective. The mitigation measures modelled included animal productivity, grass production and utilisation, better reproductive performance, early compact calving, reduced crude protein, decreased fertiliser N, protected urea, white clover, slurry tank cover and low emission slurry spreading (LESS). The results show that over half of the greenhouse gas abatement potential and most of the ammonia abatement potential were realised with cost-beneficial measures. Animal and feed-related measures that increased efficiency drove the abatement of GHG emissions. Low-emission slurry spreading was beneficial for the bottom and middle one-third of farms, while protected urea and reducing nitrogen use accounted for most of the ammonia abatement potential for the most profitable farms. Results showed that combining mitigation measures resulted in a decrease of 23%, 19%, and 12% in GHG emissions below 2020 levels for the bottom, middle, and top performing dairy farms, respectively. The findings imply that top dairy farms, that are already managed efficiently and optimally, may struggle to achieve the national and international GHG reduction targets with existing technologies and practices.

A simplified methodology for estimating the Carbon Footprint of heat generation by forest woodchips as a support tool for sustainability assessment in decision-making

Energy production from biomass is very strategic for the achievement of global sustainability goals and the use of biofuels for decentralized energy production in medium-small size plants, which conforms to global fossil energy and GHG reduction targets, is expected to increase in the short-medium term. This paper proposes a simplified methodology for estimating the Carbon Footprint associated with heat generation by forest woodchips. The methodology includes all the relevant life cycle phases and is based on the specific fuel and plant characteristics, so it can effectively support sustainability assessment in decision-making regarding biomass projects through proper Carbon Footprint estimates. The application of the methodology showed results in the range of about 6–12 gCO2eq/MJ, depending on the case study characteristics, that agree with the impact values range observed from previous literature. The basic idea that the use of forest woodchips is particularly strategic for sustainable energy production within a “local” wood-energy supply chain (short transport distance) was confirmed. Furthermore, the methodology allowed to estimate indicative transportation distances for which forest woodchips can be considered environmentally competitive compared to alternative renewable sources such as, for instance, wood pellets.

Impact of Fuel Production Technologies on Energy Consumption and GHG Emissions from Diesel and Electric–Hydrogen Hybrid Buses in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

In view of the GHG reduction targets to be met, Brazilian researchers are looking for cleaner alternatives to energy sources. These alternatives are primarily to be applied in the transport sector, which presents high energy consumption, as well as high CO2 emissions. In this sense, this research developed an LCI study considering two bus alternatives for the city of Rio de Janeiro: diesel-powered internal combustion buses (ICEB) and a hydrogen-powered polymer fuel cell hybrid bus (FCHB). For the FCHB, three hydrogen production methods were also included: water electrolysis (WE), ethanol steam reforming (ESR) and natural gas steam reforming (NGSR). The research was aimed at estimating energy consumption, including the percentage of energy that is renewable, as well as CO2 emissions. The results show diesel as the energy source with the highest emissions as well as the highest fossil energy consumption. Regarding the alternatives for hydrogen production, water electrolysis stood out with the lowest emissions.

Enabling technologies assessment for reducing Italian LPT emissions on short and long-term time frames

The international policies on energy transition and sustainable development for mitigating global warming aim to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C and consequently to outline a transition towards zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2050. Vehicular traffic is responsible for about 30% of the total direct GHG, making it one of the most critical sectors. The achievement of net zero GHG emission goal in transportation sector relies in both improving the energy efficiency of the actual vehicles and promoting more efficient modes of transport. In this context, the development and enhancement of local public transport (LPT) systems represent a key point for future mobility, due to the reduced consumption and emissions per unit of transported passenger. As a result, public transport companies need to take rapid action to modernize their fleets, which currently consist mostly of diesel buses, by introducing vehicles and fuels with a lower environmental impact. With reference to the bus transit component of LPT, this article provides an assessment of vehicle and energy enabling technologies for emission mitigation in Italian LPT in a short (2030) and medium-long term (2050) application time frame, in accordance with the EU policy objectives contained in the "Fitfor55" proposal. The study shows that achieving GHG reduction targets requires the use of a mix of technological solutions, both vehicular and energy. Some of them, reduced environmental benefits, are immediately exploitable, in terms of maturity and cost-effectiveness, while others, more promising, are based on less mature technologies, now more expensive, and on the use of energy vectors produced from renewable sources, for which a significant research and development effort is required.

Assessing the European Electric-Mobility Transition: Emissions from Electric Vehicle Manufacturing and Use in Relation to the EU Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets.

The European Union (EU) has set a 37.5% GHG reduction target in 2030 for the mobility sector, relative to 1990 levels. This requires increasing the share of zero-emission passenger vehicles, mainly in the form of electric vehicles (EVs). This study calculates future GHG emissions related to passenger vehicle manufacturing and use based on stated policy goals of EU Member States for EV promotion. Under these policies, by 2040 the stock of EVs would be about 73 times larger than those of 2020, contributing to a cumulative in-use emission reduction of 2.0 gigatons CO2-eq. Nevertheless, this stated EV adoption will not be sufficiently fast to reach the EU's GHG reduction targets, and some of the GHG environmental burdens may be shifted to the EV battery manufacturing countries. To achieve the 2030 reduction targets, the EU as a whole needs to accelerate the phase-out of internal combustion engine vehicles and transit to e-mobility at the pace of the most ambitious Member States, such that EVs can comprise at least 55% of the EU passenger vehicle fleet in 2030. An accelerated decarbonization of the electricity system will become the most critical prerequisite for minimizing GHG emissions from both EV manufacturing and in-use stages.

Covenant of Mayors 2020 Achievements: A Two-Speed Climate Action Process

Assessing the world’s collective progress towards the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals is a global priority. Local authorities (LAs), in particular, play an important role in a just transition. This paper evaluates the real achievements of local climate action plans developed in Europe from 2008 to 2020 under the Covenant of Mayors initiative. On average, 85.6% of the GHG reduction targets were achieved way before the year 2020; however, our assessment shows different reduction patterns, with several leading LAs exceeding by 2–4 times their targets and 12% of LAs increasing their baseline emissions. This paper weighs the factors which have a determinant impact on these patterns, investigating the key drivers and barriers towards a clean energy transition under a new population-driven approach. While, for large LAs, the climate experience and the engagement of stakeholders is an asset for increasing their achievements, small LAs are much more conditioned by the political mandate and support from regional governments or external actors. The key factor for climate action planning appears to be the joint partnership between several government levels from a national perspective.

Review of Energy and Climate Plans of Baltic States: The Contribution of Renewables for Energy Production in Households

The European Commission introduced a package of measures to accelerate the shift to low-carbon energy transition in Europe. In 2014, EU member states agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. The binding greenhouse gas emission targets for Member States from 2021 to 2030 for the transport, buildings, agriculture, waste, and land-use and forestry sectors were established. EU Member States should decide on their own how to meet the agreed upon 2030 target and implement climate-change-mitigation measures. All EU MSs have committed to prepare national energy and climate plans based on regulation on the governance of the energy union and climate action (EU)2018/1999, agreed as part of the Clean Energy for All Europeans package approved in 2019. The national plans outline how the EU Member States intend to implement the GHG reduction target by increasing their in energy efficiency, use of renewables, greenhouse-gas-emission reductions, interconnections, and research and innovation. This paper analyzes the energy and climate plans of the Baltic States and systematizes the main climate-change-mitigation policies in the energy sector targeting the household sector. The background of energy and climate planning is provided from a theoretical point of view, encompassing regional, local, and national energy and climate plans. The diffusion levels of renewables in the Baltic States were determined and the energy-climatic-friendly policies followed, by them, they were identified.

Integration of Short-Lived Climate Pollutant and air pollutant mitigation in nationally determined contributions

ABSTRACT Limiting global temperature increases to 1.5 °C while respecting ‘the right to health’ requires substantial reductions in Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs), including methane, black carbon and hydrofluorocarbons, and co-emitted air pollutants. This study evaluates the inclusion of SLCP and air pollutant mitigation within Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that were submitted between 2015 and 2022. Between pre- and post-2020 NDCs, explicit reference to SLCPs and air pollutant mitigation as priorities more than doubled, indicating a rise in policy attention to these pollutants. There was also a large increase in the percentage of countries including methane and HFCs within the scope of their overall GHG reduction targets, and three countries include explicit black carbon reduction targets. With respect to policy, there was a 45% increase in the number of specific mitigation measures included in NDCs post-2020. Hence, the number of countries with implicit reductions in SLCPs and other air pollutants covered in their NDCs is now also substantially larger compared to pre-2020, due to greater inclusion of mitigation measures that reduce SLCPs and air pollutants alongside (other) GHGs.

Multi-model approach to integrate climate change impact on carbon sequestration potential of afforestation scenarios in Quebec, Canada

Afforestation of unproductive or currently non-forested territories can increase carbon land sinks and thus contribute to mitigate climate change. However, investments on large-scale afforestation could be risky because of the predicted effect of climate change on forest productivity of newly created plantations. The aim of this study was to assess the carbon sequestration and mitigation potential of afforestation scenarios with different species (Picea mariana, Picea glauca, Pinus banksiana, Pinus resinosa and Populus spp) on open woodlands and abandoned farmlands in the Province of Quebec (Canada) under different radiative forcing projections. We modelled carbon dynamics in these lands under three Representative Concentration Pathways projections (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) over the 2021–2100 period. The forest gap model PICUS was used to model tree growth of afforested species as a function of the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5; these data were then used as input in the Carbon Budget Model – Canadian Forest Sector 3 to simulate the evolution of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes as a function of forest management and climate. Carbon transfer to harvested wood products, and carbon fluxes associated with product life cycles and substitution effects on markets, were also included in the analyses. Results showed that Pinus species responded more strongly to variations in radiative forcing than for the other simulated species. Overall, aboveground biomass was particularly altered by increased radiative forcing, which in turn reduced harvesting yield and transfers to wood processing and products. At the end of the simulation, despite the expected impacts of radiative forcing on ecosystems, afforestation scenarios on open woodlands with black spruce, white spruce, and jack pine can deliver carbon mitigation of 32% – 70% over the baseline scenario and 4% – 12% for red pine on abandoned farmlands and, hence, contribute to efforts to reduce GHG emissions, especially over the long term. Although climate change is expected to impact the growth of newly planted areas as part of afforestation efforts, the results of our study suggest that the choice of species to plant and the selected forest management strategy have a greater impact on carbon stocks than climate change itself. This study provides a better understanding of the dynamics of afforestation under climate change and whether investments in plantation can contribute to GHG reduction targets.

Integrated Stochastic Life Cycle Assessment and Techno-Economic Analysis for Shrub Willow Production in the Northeastern United States

The refereed literature contains few studies that analyze life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) methodologies together for lignocellulosic bioenergy systems, using a stochastic modeling approach. This study seeks to address this gap by developing an integrated framework to quantify the environmental and financial impacts of producing and delivering shrub willow in the Northeastern United States. This study analyses four different scenarios from a combination of two different initial land cover types (grassland, cropland) prior to willow establishment, and two harvesting conditions (leaf-on, leaf-off). Monte Carlo simulations were performed to quantify the uncertainty of the results based on a range of financial, logistical, and biophysical variable input parameters (e.g., land rental rates, transportation distance, biomass yield, etc.). Growing willow biomass on croplands resulted in net negative GHG emissions for both leaf on and leaf off scenarios for the baseline. The GHG emissions were lowest for the leaf-off harvest on cropland (−172.50 kg CO2eq Mg−1); this scenario also had the lowest MSP ($76.41 Mg−1). The baseline grassland scenario with leaf-on harvest, results in the highest net GHG emissions (44.83 kg CO2eq Mg−1) and greatest MSP ($92.97 Mg−1). The results of this analysis provide the bioenergy field and other interested stakeholders with both environmental and financial trade-offs of willow biomass to permit informed decisions about the future expansion of willow fields in the landscape, which have the potential to contribute to GHG reduction targets and conversion into fuels, energy, or bioproducts for carbon sequestration and financial benefits.

Best options for large-scale production of liquid biofuels by value chain modelling: A New Zealand case study

Biofuels are a promising low-carbon replacement for fossil fuels in the transport sector. However, how should a country without an existing biofuel industry, such as New Zealand, go about implementing large-scale production and use of biofuels? We used value chain modelling and optimisation to identify lowest-cost options to replace existing liquid fossil fuels used in New Zealand, and how to make the transition. Multiple scenarios, e.g. 5–50% biofuel substitution, different land use assumptions, were examined. Novel features were added to the Biomass Value Chain Model to consider the impacts of land quality on biomass production, land use competition, existing and new plantation forests, and replacements for multiple liquid fossil fuels used. Credible routes exist for large-scale biofuel production in New Zealand, which could contribute significantly to meeting its GHG reduction targets. Key results include (i) Lowest cost substitution of 30% of fossil fuel use by 2050 reduced GHG emissions by 80% at a levelized cost within the range of prices seen for imported fossil petrol and diesel over the last 10 years; (ii) Drop-in biofuels from non-food feedstocks, particularly forestry on non-arable land, are the most attractive in the long term; and (iii) Pyrolysis plus upgrading of lignocellulosic feedstocks and biodiesel from canola were amongst the lowest-cost conversion options. The most important contributors to the cost are the: conversion process capital and operating costs; delivered cost of feedstock(s) suitable for each process; conversion yields; and options for co-product sales and distributed processing. Land use decisions, conditioned by land prices, affected the preferred feedstocks, but also where biomass was grown and converted into fuels, fuel costs, and GHG reductions. Conversion plant locations were driven by feedstock availability and costs through time and existing infrastructure.

대체단백질식품의 시장점유 시나리오별 축산부문 온실가스 배출량 추정

The livestock sector, producing 14.5 percent of anthropocentric GHG emissions, plays an important role in climate change (Gerber et al., 2013). In this study, GHG emissions of the livestock sector due to dietary changes caused by alternative protein food (alternative meat) were compared with the GHG reduction target in Korea. Assuming a scenario in which substitute meat occupies 28% of the domestic livestock market in 2030, 0.56 million tons of livestock production was replaced. In this case, GHG in the livestock sector decreased by 3.6 million tonnes CO₂eq compared to BAU (Business As Usual) GHG emissions. This is equivalent to 38.7% of the total reduction target (9.3 million tons) of the livestock industry by 2050. Although this study is useful for predicting the impact of changes in Korean diets, it has limitations in that it does not consider the interactions between the development of livestock technology and variables of market change. If factors such as changes in the types of livestock products, changes in the livestock self-sufficiency rate, and development of emission factors according to productivity improvement are considered, more accurate emission calculations will be possible.

The potential for successful climate policy in National Energy and climate plans: highlighting key gaps and ways forward

BackgroundThe EU “Winter Package” sets out specific energy and climate goals and urged formation of National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) by Member States for 2020 to 2030. Integrating scaled-up mitigation technologies within existing economic and social structures face numerous difficulties and require careful planning. While some options may be less suitable than others within a given country context, solutions exist to mitigate negative impacts and build local acceptance. We assess the resulting plans in the context of: (i) economic effects, the trade-offs arising from scaled-up technologies in terms of energy system- and macroeconomic effects; (ii) climate effectiveness, via assessment of carbon payback times of technologies, and (iii) social aspects, with a focus on identifying approaches for wider social adoption and acceptance of mitigation options. Assessment takes the form of case studies for Greece, Austria, and the Netherlands, three EU member states with very different preconditions.ResultsIn terms of economic efficiency, NECPs lack consideration of the unique properties inherent in large-scale renewable energy deployment, and we suggest a possible way forward for future macroeconomic assessment via incorporating integration costs. For economic efficiency, we find that countries may be overestimating their contributions to GHG reduction targets via failure to incorporate life-cycle based analysis. Addressing feasibility, we find that countries address acceptance to different extents, with Greece and Austria holding stakeholder workshops and allowing for public comment on draft NECPs, while the Netherlands undertook a more extensive effort to ensure local public acceptance and involvement in planning.ConclusionsThe results illustrate that even though NECPs may be finalized, their success is far from ensured, and neglecting to consider key aspects of efficiency, effectiveness and feasibility may result in underestimation of impacts, failure to have as large an impact on GHG reduction as expected, or increasing public resistance to climate policies. We present approaches to deal with gaps in economic and environmental assessment, and highlight methods for improving public acceptance via examples from the case studies and related literature.

CO2 Capture by Virgin Ivy Plants Growing Up on the External Covers of Houses as a Rapid Complementary Route to Achieve Global GHG Reduction Targets

Global CO2 concentration level in the air is unprecedently high and should be rapidly and significantly reduced to avoid a global climate catastrophe. The work indicates the possibility of quickly lowering the impact of changes that have already happened and those we know will happen, especially in terms of the CO2 emitted and stored in the atmosphere, by implanting a virgin ivy plant on the available area of walls and roofs of the houses. The proposed concept of reducing CO2 from the atmosphere is one of the technologies with significant potential for implementation entirely and successfully. For the first time, we showed that the proposed concept allows over 3.5 billion tons of CO2 to be captured annually directly from the atmosphere, which makes even up 6.9% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The value constitutes enough high CO2 reduction to consider the concept as one of the applicable technologies allowing to decelerate global warming. Additional advantages of the presented concept are its global nature, it allows for the reduction of CO2 from all emission sources, regardless of its type and location on earth, and the fact that it will simultaneously lower the air temperature, contribute to oxygen production, and reduce dust in the environment.

Incorporating uncertainties towards a sustainable European energy system: A stochastic approach for decarbonization paths focusing on the transport sector

According to the Paris Agreement, the European energy system transition is essential to achieve GHG emission reduction targets set by the EU and limit the growth of global temperatures. Investigating the role of emerging mitigation technologies and their uncertainties together with the different GHG reduction targets is crucial to realize this transition. This study analyzes the uncertainties of electric vehicles' learning paths and biomass availability for biofuels, considering policy uncertainties. Since these technologies are considered possible alternatives to conventional fuels to reduce CO2 emissions in transport, it is critical to understand their future role and the possible impact of their uncertainties during the European energy system design in case of different climate ambitions. Stochastic modeling is applied to analyze associated uncertainties as an additional approach to a traditional sensitivity analysis. Our results show that decarbonization of car transport is prioritized, and electric cars appear as no-regret options in the sector's design during the energy transition. Therefore, early deployments of EVs are essential to hedge the given uncertainties independent of the hedging period's length. Longer resolution time reduces the deployment of electric vehicles in the recourse strategies compared to having a shorter one due to a delay in the cost reductions. This decline becomes more evident with the stochastic analysis. The policy uncertainty of decarbonization targets has the highest impact on the studied uncertainties on the development of the transport sector. The transport sector can show faster adjustments considering the technology portfolio's shorter lifetime. Thanks to this adjustment, the sector depicts higher decarbonization in the hedging as well as in the recourse strategies.

Towards the EU Green Deal: Local key factors to achieve ambitious 2030 climate targets

Cities representing more than one third of the EU population have already developed their mitigation action plans with the support of the Covenant of Mayors initiative. This study digs into the drivers leading European cities in setting ambitious GHG reduction targets by 2030. A total number of 246 local action plans, accepted in the Covenant of Mayors initiative, were evaluated, and ambitious municipalities (with reduction targets over 50%) were compared against those committing to regular targets (40–50%).Results show that the key factor enabling a higher climate ambition in cities is to develop local mitigation actions in line with the results of the baseline emission inventory, focusing on implementing actions in the most emitting sectors of activity. Furthermore, the study reveals the abilities of specific cities to set highly ambitious mitigation targets: to municipalise energy facilities increasing renewable energy production, and to be able of developing mitigation actions even tackling highly emitting sectors (e.g., transport) that traditionally are not under the competence of local governments.The study also shows other easy-to-reach solutions that every local authority can take into account to increase its ambition such as developing in-house action plans and conducting a deep stakeholder engagement and participatory processes from the initial stage of the action plan development.

Rethinking Climate Change Leadership: An Analysis of the Ambitiousness of State GHG Targets

AbstractTraditionally, diffusion policy scholars sought to understand state climate change policy leadership by exploring the speed of policy adoption. This study moves beyond these approaches by exploring factors that influence adoption as well as those that influence the content of a policy or policy goal intensity. Through the exploration of the first “wave” of state GHG reduction targets during the early 2000s, we create an innovative policy commitment variable that standardizes state emissions targets and explores the specific factors influencing these mitigation goals. Our results suggest that internal political factors (Democratic control of the legislature), lower state carbon dioxide emissions and dependency on coal production increases the likelihood of target adoption. However, the degree of GHG reduction commitments (content) are dependent on both internal and external factors, such as neighboring states adoption, carbon dioxide emission levels, citizen ideology, environmental interest groups, natural gas production and solar energy potential. These results support the growing literature on differentiating adoption and the content of a policy when analyzing the spread of policy ideas. Additionally, it suggests the limitations of states as climate leaders.

Heavy-duty trucks: The challenge of getting to zero

This research considers strategies that will reduce truck emissions and achieve public health and GHG reduction targets. Freight shipments in urban areas are increasing throughout the world as a result of globalization, rising incomes, and shifting patterns of production and consumption. Urban freight shipments are overwhelmingly made by trucks, which generate significant negative impacts on human health and contribute to GHG emissions. We examine the potential of zero emission heavy-duty trucks (ZEHDTs). We use simulation modeling and case studies to explore the impacts of using battery electric heavy-duty trucks (BEHDTs) and natural gas hybrid heavy-duty trucks (hybrid HDTs) in freight operations, taking into account differences in performance and refueling. We estimate impacts for 2020, 2025, and 2030. BEHDT applications are limited in the near term due to range and charging limitations, but as BEHDT performance improves and prices go down, they are viable for a larger segment of the market. Hybrid vehicles are the most cost-effective alternative for reducing air toxics, but BEHDTs reduce air toxics the most by 2025. Subsidies and charging infrastructure investment would be required to promote use of BEHDTs.