대체단백질식품의 시장점유 시나리오별 축산부문 온실가스 배출량 추정

Abstract

The livestock sector, producing 14.5 percent of anthropocentric GHG emissions, plays an important role in climate change (Gerber et al., 2013). In this study, GHG emissions of the livestock sector due to dietary changes caused by alternative protein food (alternative meat) were compared with the GHG reduction target in Korea. Assuming a scenario in which substitute meat occupies 28% of the domestic livestock market in 2030, 0.56 million tons of livestock production was replaced. In this case, GHG in the livestock sector decreased by 3.6 million tonnes CO₂eq compared to BAU (Business As Usual) GHG emissions. This is equivalent to 38.7% of the total reduction target (9.3 million tons) of the livestock industry by 2050. Although this study is useful for predicting the impact of changes in Korean diets, it has limitations in that it does not consider the interactions between the development of livestock technology and variables of market change. If factors such as changes in the types of livestock products, changes in the livestock self-sufficiency rate, and development of emission factors according to productivity improvement are considered, more accurate emission calculations will be possible.