German Federal Election Research Articles

Why Voters Decide Late: A Simultaneous Test of Old and New Hypotheses at the 2005 and 2009 German Federal Elections

Against the background of a substantial rise of the number of late-deciding voters at recent elections the paper simultaneously tests four complementary hypotheses on the background of contemporary electors' timing of decision making. The traditional floating voter hypothesis fares best in this analysis: lacking partisan predispositions and a general detachment from politics appear as the main reasons why people take longer to make up their minds. Indifference and attitudinal ambivalence as well as mixed party-political signals from voters' social networks also lead to electors postponing their voting decisions. The hypothesis that late deciding is a consequence of increased availability and attention to mediated political information is refuted. Several long-term trends are discussed as reasons for the increase of late deciding.

German federal election of 2009: The challenge of participatory cultures in political campaigns

Increasingly, political actors have to act in online communication environments. There they meet overlapping networked publics with different levels of participatory cultures and varying expectations of participation in the (re)making and coproduction of political content. This challenges political actors used to a top-down approach to communication. Meanwhile, online users are increasingly politically involved as legislatures all over the world become more active in regulating communication environments online. These new political actors often share participatory practices and have high levels of new media skills. Now they are challenged to adapt these bottom-up participatory cultures to the traditional political environment. This paper examines these adaption processes by examining three examples from the campaign for the German federal election of 2009. These examples include the attempt of Germany's conservative party (CDU) to encourage their supporters to adapt participatory practices, the German Social Democrats' (SPD) top-down production and distribution of online content that mimicked the look and feel of user-generated content, and the bottom-up emergence of political flash mobs.

Space Matters. The Group Threat Hypothesis Revisited with Geographically Weighted Regression. The Case of the NPD 2009 Electoral Success

Summary A geographically weighted regression approach is used to assess the association of the electoral success of the NPD, an extreme right-wing political party, during the 2009 German federal election with levels of and changes in immigrant and unemployment rates. The results do not support the group threat hypothesis: the immigrant rate remains non-significant in large areas of West Germany while it shows a negative and significant relationship with NPD electoral success in most localities in East Germany as well as in Northern Bavaria. Instead, findings tend to confirm the contact hypothesis: a higher percentage of immigrants within an electoral district seems to lead to larger interethnic contact opportunities and thus to a lower proportion of votes for the NPD. The largest significant positive association of unemployment rate with NPD electoral results is observed with respect to localities that are situated around the former border between East and West Germany. The large regional variations in the effects of immigrant and unemployment rates point to different mechanisms which are at stake in the association of populist radical right success with unemployment and immigrant rates. These findings illustrate the importance of spatial variability and make the case for a broader new research agenda dedicated to exploring the mechanisms underlying spatial nonstationarity.

From Unpopular Socialists to the Popular Party: The Spanish General Election of 2011

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. For other recent reports in this elections in context series, see Allern (2010 Allern Haugsgjerd, Elin. 2010. ‘Survival of a Majority Coalition: The Norwegian Parliamentary Election of 14 September 2009’. West European Politics, 33(4): 904–12. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Arter (2011 Arter, David. 2011. ‘Taking the Gilt off the Conservatives’ Gingerbread: The April 2011 Finnish General Election’. West European Politics, 34(6): 1284–95. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Dinas (2010 Dinas, Elias. 2010. ‘The Greek General Election of 2009: Pasok – The Third Generation’. West European Politics, 33(2): 389–98. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Faas (2010 Faas, Thorsten. 2010. ‘The German Federal Election of 2009: Sprouting Coalitions, Drooping Social Democrats’. West European Politics, 33(4): 894–903. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Fernandes (2011 Fernandes Manuel, Jorge. 2011. ‘The 2011 Portuguese Election: Looking for a Way Out’. West European Politics, 34(6): 1296–303. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Haughton et al. (2011 Haughton Novotná, Tim Tereza and Deegan-Krause, Kevin. 2011. ‘The 2010 Czech and Slovak Parliamentary Elections’. West European Politics, 34(2): 394–402. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Kosiara-Pedersen (2012 Kosiara-Pedersen, Karina. 2012. ‘The 2011 Danish Parliamentary Election: A Very New Government’. West European Politics, 35(2): 415–24. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Lisi (2010 Lisi, Marco. 2010. ‘The Renewal of the Socialist Majority: The 2009 Portuguese Legislative Elections’. West European Politics, 33(2): 381–88. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Little (2011 Little, Conor. 2011. ‘The General Election of 2011 in the Republic of Ireland: All Change Utterly’. West European Politics, 34(6): 1304–13. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Quinn (2011 Quinn, Thomas. 2011. ‘From New Labour to New Politics: The British General Election of 2010’. West European Politics, 34(2): 403–11. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and van Holsteyn (2011 Van Holsteyn, J. J.M. 2011. ‘The Dutch Parliamentary Election of 2010’. West European Politics, 34(2): 412–19. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).

Voting Advice Applications and their effect on voter turnout: the case of the German Wahl-O-Mat

In many states, Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) have become an almost indispensable element within electoral campaigns. Many of these tools are part of civic education projects which are supposed to mobilise voters to go to elections. This paper discusses whether VAAs meet this expectation. Out of a theoretical perspective which combines rational choice arguments with the issue–orientation of voters, the paper makes it plausible why VAAs should have such an impact. The empirical test focuses on the German VAA - the Wahl–O–Mat - before the German Federal Election in 2009, drawing on an online–generated dataset provided by the German Longitudinal Election Study which in large is representative for the German online community. The multivariate analyses indicate that, controlled for the relevant variables, using the Wahl–O–Mat indeed had a significant positive effect on the intention to vote.

The 2011 Portuguese Election: Looking for a Way Out

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Acknowledgement The author would like to acknowledge the contribution of the late Professor Peter Mair (1951–2011) to this election review article, both as Co-Editor of West European Politics and as the author's mentor at the European University Institute. Notes 1. For other recent reports in this elections in context series, see Allern (2010 Allern, Haugsgjerd Elin. 2010. ‘Survival of a Majority Coalition: The Norwegian Parliamentary Election of 14 September 2009’. West European Politics, 33(4): 904–12. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Dinas (2010 Dinas, Elias. 2010. ‘The Greek General Election of 2009: Pasok – The Third Generation’. West European Politics, 33(2): 389–98. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Faas (2010 Faas, Thorsten. 2010. ‘The German Federal Election of 2009: Sprouting Coalitions, Drooping Social Democrats’. West European Politics, 33(4): 894–903. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Lisi (2010 Lisi, Marco. 2010. ‘The Renewal of the Socialist Majority: The 2009 Legislative Elections’. West European Politics, 33(2): 381–8. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). 2. Passos Coelho interviewed by Reuters, available at http://blogs.reuters.com/axel-bugge/. 3. The Christian Democrats (CDS) are often underestimated in pre-election polls. The 2011 elections were one of the rare examples of an overestimation for this party, a situation that enhanced the perception of defeat. 4. The turnout level might be influenced by outdated electoral records. The week before the election, a newspaper published a study suggesting that there were 700,000 ‘ghost-electors’, potentially decreasing the turnout by 7 per cent (Expresso, 26 May 2011).

Taking the Gilt off the Conservatives' Gingerbread: The April 2011 Finnish General Election

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. For other recent reports in this elections in context series, see Allern (2010 Allern, Haugsgjerd Elin. 2010. ‘Survival of a Majority Coalition: The Norwegian Parliamentary Election of 14 September 2009’. West European Politics, 33(4): 904–12. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Dinas (2010 Dinas, Elias. 2010. ‘The Greek General Election of 2009: Pasok – The Third Generation’. West European Politics, 33(2): 389–98. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Faas (2010 Faas, Thorsten. 2010. ‘The German Federal Election of 2009: Sprouting Coalitions, Drooping Social Democrats’. West European Politics, 33(4): 894–903. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Lisi (2010 Lisi, Marco. 2010. ‘The Renewal of the Socialist Majority: The 2009 Portuguese Legislative Elections’. West European Politics, 33(2): 381–8. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Haughton et al. (2011 Haughton, Tim, Novotná,, Tereza and Deegan-Krause, Kevin. 2011. ‘The 2010 Czech and Slovak Parliamentary Elections’. West European Politics, 34(2): 394–402. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Quinn (2011 Quinn, Thomas. 2011. ‘From New Labour to New Politics: The British General Election of 2010’. West European Politics, 34(2): 403–11. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).

Conditions for Dyadic Partisan Agreement and Disagreement: An Analysis of Voters' Social Networks at the 2009 German Federal Election

Using a unique dataset (a nationally representative pre-election Rolling Cross-Section survey with post-election panel wave) the paper tests a series of hypotheses about conditions that increase or decrease the amount of agreement resp. disagreement in dyads of voters and discussants at the 2009 German Federal Election: that interpersonal influence is stronger within primary relationships (strong ties) than within functionally defined secondary relationships (weak ties); that political conversion is the medium through which agreement is generated; that perceived political expertise and trustworthiness as well as effective communication are important preconditions of agreement; and that dyadic partisan correspondence is a function of the party preferences prevalent in the overall network (autoregressive effect). While most studies of this kind have so far strictly focused on party correspondence, this study of a West European multi-party system additionally explores agreement and disagreement across parties belonging to the same ideological camps. To varying degrees, when simultaneously tested all hypotheses are supported by our findings.

Parties and their Leaders. Does it matter how they match? The German General Elections 2009 in comparison

The ‘personalization of politics’ hypothesis assumes that personalization takes place in election campaigns, in the mass-media, and in the calculus of voting. We claim that the distinction between person/leader and organization implicitly assumed by the personalization hypothesis does not capture how voters observe politics. In contrast, our hypothesis is that evaluation criteria regarding parties and leaders are not in competition but reinforcing. This hypothesis is investigated by looking at the relevance of party and leader evaluations for vote choice in the German Federal Elections in 1998, 2002, 2005, and 2009. The results show that party evaluation matter more than leader evaluation and, more importantly, a match of parties and their leaders with regard to general evaluations determine vote choice as good as single evaluations together.

The Zero-sum Game of Governing Together? Effects of Merkel's Grand Coalition on the Results of the 2009 German Federal Election

Grand coalitions are highly debated in Germany, where large parts of the media and the political world expect negative effects of grand coalitions on parliamentary party systems. This did not happen either with Merkel's grand coalition resulting from the 2005 election or with other grand coalitions in the German Länder. On the contrary, only the SPD suffered heavy losses in 2009. Most experts agree that those losses were caused by the SPD's participation in the grand coalition. Still, it remains largely unclear how Merkel's grand coalition affected the 2009 federal election. To close that gap, this paper thoroughly analyses the effects of Merkel's grand coalition by looking at a crucial but mostly neglected factor in that regard, the evaluation of the grand coalition by voters. It can be shown that the CDU/CSU was mostly unaffected whereas the SPD suffered from being perceived as the less influential party in Merkel's grand coalition.

The Dutch Parliamentary Election of 2010

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. For other recent reports in this elections in context series, see Allern (2010 Allern, Haugsgjerd Elin. 2010. ‘Survival of a Majority Coalition: The Norwegian Parliamentary Election of 14 September 2009’. West European Politics, 33(4): 904–12. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Dinas (2010 Dinas, Elias. 2010. ‘The Greek General Election of 2009: Pasok – The Third Generation’. West European Politics, 33(2): 389–98. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Faas (2010 Faas, Thorsten. 2010. ‘The German Federal Election of 2009: Sprouting Coalitions, Drooping Social Democrats’. West European Politics, 33(4): 894–903. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Lisi (2010 Lisi, Marco. 2010. ‘The Renewal of the Socialist Majority: The 2009 Portuguese Legislative Elections’. West European Politics, 33(2): 381–8. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).

The 2009 Federal Election and the Economic Crisis

The 2009 German federal election took place during the deepest recession in German post-war history. It brought to power a coalition of Christian democrats and liberals while the social democrats suffered by far their worst result at a general election since 1949. This paper discusses whether there is a causal relationship between the government's response to the crisis and the election result. While voters basically supported the government's management of the banking crisis they were much more sceptical with regard to the grand coalition's management of the recession. Interestingly, a majority of the voters disapproved of some of the interventionist policies the SPD had suggested and believed that the Christian democrats were the most competent crisis managers. Therefore, the economic crisis may well have helped the bourgeois parties win the election.

Merely a Referendum on Chancellor Merkel? Parties, Issues and Candidates in the 2009 German Federal Election

This paper addresses the role of candidate orientations, issue orientations and party identification in shaping voting behaviour in the 2009 federal election. In line with the notion that the 2009 campaign was rather ‘issue-less’ and candidate-centred, the analysis shows that candidate orientations were more effective as predictors than issue orientations. Moreover, preferences for Chancellor Angela Merkel and her challenger, the Social Democrat Frank-Walter Steinmeier, exhibited somewhat different effects. Taking a closer look at Chancellor Merkel, the analysis demonstrates that she had become much more popular during her first term. Given this increase in popularity and the substantive effect of candidate preference on vote choice, Merkel was an electoral asset for the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) in 2009.

The Campaign and its Dynamics at the 2009 German General Election

This article analyses the 2009 German federal election campaign with specific emphasis on the three categories of actors that play key roles in contemporary election campaigns – parties and their candidates, the mass media, and the voters. Mainly aiming at a theoretically informed comprehensive description, the article addresses some key themes of the recent literature on electioneering. The Bundestag election on 27 September 2009 was preceded by a campaign that lacked drama. There were several reasons for the absence of a more polarised campaign, not least the fact that CDU/CSU and SPD had been tied together in a Grand Coalition and had to deal with massive political challenges. Against the background of an unclear picture painted by the media, the feasibility and likelihood of various types of government coalitions were dominant topics of the campaign. The CDU/CSU in many respects had an edge over the SPD.

Incumbency, Party Identity and Governmental Lead: Evidence for Heterogeneous Incumbency Effects for Germany

Do incumbents in an election have an advantage, and if so, are these advantages heterogeneous across parties or government and opposition? We first present a theoretical discussion on the possible heterogeneity of incumbency effects in a pure two-party system. Then, we estimate the incumbency effect for the direct district candidates in German federal and state elections using a regression discontinuity design (RDD). When studying the heterogeneity in these effects, we find that incumbents from both large parties, the center-right CDU and the center-left SPD, have an advantage only if the SPD is in government. This effect is robust and shows even in state elections that are unrelated to federal elections - calling into question the findings of average incumbency effects in the literature. Because this effect is stronger in the East than in the West and only shows post reunification, we hypothesize that the emergence of the socialist party The Left may be behind this heterogeneity.

Election Forecasts with Twitter - How 140 Characters Reflect the Political Landscape

This study investigates whether microblogging messages on Twitter validly mirror the political landscape offline and can be used to predict election results. In the context of the 2009 German federal election, we conducted a sentiment analysis of over 100,000 messages containing a reference to either a political party or a politician. Our results show that Twitter is used extensively for political deliberation and that the mere number of party mentions accurately reflects the election result. The tweets' sentiment (e.g., positive and negative emotions associated with a politician) corresponds closely to voters' political preferences. In addition, party sentiment profiles reflect the similarity of political positions between parties. We derive suggestions for further research and discuss the use of microblogging services to aggregate dispersed information.

Conditions for Dyadic Partisan Agreement and Disagreement: An Analysis of Voters' Social Networks at the 2009 German Federal Election

Conditions for Dyadic Partisan Agreement and Disagreement: An Analysis of Voters' Social Networks at the 2009 German Federal Election

Election Forecasts With Twitter

This study investigates whether microblogging messages on Twitter validly mirror the political landscape off-line and can be used to predict election results. In the context of the 2009 German federal election, we conducted a sentiment analysis of over 100,000 messages containing a reference to either a political party or a politician. Our results show that Twitter is used extensively for political deliberation and that the mere number of party mentions accurately reflects the election result. The tweets' sentiment (e.g., positive and negative emotions associated with a politician) corresponds closely to voters' political preferences. In addition, party sentiment profiles reflect the similarity of political positions between parties. We derive suggestions for further research and discuss the use of microblogging services to aggregate dispersed information.

The SPD and the Debacle of the 2009 German Federal Election: An Opportunity for Renewal

The 2009 German federal election marked a devastating defeat for the German Social Democratic Party (SPD). The debacle led some commentators to speculate about the end of the SPD as a “catch-all party“ and—given the recent poor performance of center-left parties across Europe—“the end of social democracy.“ In this article, we contextualize the result of the 2009 Bundestag election within the settings of German party politics and European social democracy, and show how the electoral disaster for the SPD can be explained by broad, long-term political developments. We nevertheless argue that the German Social Democrat's defeat in 2009 provides an opportunity for renewal at a time when the governing Conservative-Liberal coalition—already in disarray—must take some tough decisions with regard to the resource crunch in German public finances.

Coalition Preferences and Voting Behaviour at the 2009 German Federal Election

Coalitions are the regular type of government in most parliamentary systems. Consequently, when going to the polls voters have to keep in mind that a coalition will most certainly be formed after the election even though they are voting for a party. Research on the matter how voters deal with coalitions as political objects is still rather sparse. In our paper we thus analyze how voters formed evaluations about coalitions and how these evaluations influenced voting behavior at the 2009 German federal election. Given that various coalition options were heavily debated before the election and polls were inconclusive about the likely outcome of the election, voters had the opportunity to learn about different coalition options and to generate coalition evaluations. With the extensive data of the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) at hand, we are able to show that coalition evaluations are meaningful political attitudes which have the potential to influence voting behaviour in multiparty systems on top of party and leader evaluations.