Geopotential Height Fields Research Articles

Variability of the low-level circulation of the South American Monsoon analysed with complex networks

Understanding the variability of low-level atmospheric circulation regimes is key for understanding the dynamics of monsoon systems. The South American Monsoon is characterized by strong year-long trade winds that are channeled southward into the South American Low-Level Jet after crossing the Amazon basin, which in turn is elementary for the moisture transport to Southern South America. In this study, we utilize streamflow wind networks, a type of climate networks that tracks the local flow of the wind field, together with the analysis of composites of wind, precipitation, and geopotential height fields, to investigate the variability of the South American low-level circulation. The streamflow wind networks are used here as they are able to directly track the wind flow and encode its spatiotemporal characteristics in their topology. We focus on intraseasonal variations in terms of active and break monsoon phases on the one hand, and on the interannual variability in terms of the impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the other hand. Our findings highlight the importance of the South American Low-Level Jet, its spatial position and variability. Our study reveals the relation of the active and break regimes to anomalous high- and low-pressure systems over the southern Atlantic that are connected to Rossby wave trains from the southern Pacific, as well as the impact of these regimes on the cross-equatorial low-level flow. In addition, the streamflow networks that we use demonstrate significant shifts of the dominant wind flow pattern during El Niño and La Niña episodes.

Do Extreme Climate Events Cause the Degradation of Malus sieversii Forests in China?

Frequent extreme climate events have attracted considerable attention around the world. Malus sieversii in Xinjiang is the ancestor of cultivated apple, and it is mainly distributed in the Ili river valley at end of the Tianshan Mountains. Wild fruit forests have been degraded, but the cause remains unclear. In order to identify whether extreme climate events caused this degradation reanalysis data and atmospheric circulation indices were used to determine the trends and the reasons for extreme climate changes. Subsequently, we further investigated the effect of extreme climate events on wild fruit forest using characteristics of extreme climate indices and tree-ring chronology. We found increasing trends in both extreme precipitation and warm indices, and decreasing trends in cool indices. Extreme climate events were mainly associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Analysis of data of wind and geopotential height field at 500 hPa showed that strengthening wind, increasing geopotential height, cyclone and anti-cyclone circulation drivers contributed to extreme climate events. In the non-degraded region, there were significant positive correlations between tree-ring chronology and both extreme precipitation and extreme warm indices (except for warm spell duration indicator). The other extreme indices (except for heavy rain days) had a large correlation range with tree-rings in a 4–8-year period. These results indicated that extreme precipitation and extreme warm indices intensified M. sieversii growth of the non-degraded region on multi-time scales. In contrast, the degraded region showed insignificant negative relationship between tree-ring chronology and both extreme precipitation and extreme warm indices [except for warm spell duration index (WSDI)], and significant negative correlations in a 4–8-year period were detected between tree-ring chronology and most of the extreme precipitation indices, including heavy rain days, very wet days, cold spell duration indicator, simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), and annual total precipitation. Under the long disturbance of inappropriate anthropic activities, extreme climate has caused the outbreak of pests and diseases resulting in the degeneration of wild fruit forest. Our study provides scientific guidance for the ecosystem conservation in wild fruit forest in China, and also across the region.

Dual Effects of Synoptic Weather Patterns and Urbanization on Summer Diurnal Temperature Range in an Urban Agglomeration of East China

Previous studies on the impact of urbanization on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) have mainly concentrated on the intra-seasonal and interannual–decadal scales, while relatively fewer studies have considered synoptic scales. In particular, the modulation of DTR by different synoptic weather patterns (SWPs) is not yet fully understood. Taking the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta region (YRDUA) in eastern China as an example, and by using random forest machine learning and objective weather classification methods, this paper analyzes the characteristics of DTR and its urban–rural differences (DTRU–R) in summer from 2013 to 2016, based on surface meteorological observations, satellite remote sensing, and reanalysis data. Ultimately, the influences of urbanization-related factors and different large-scale SWPs on DTR and DTRU–R are explored. Results show that YRDUA is controlled by four SWPs in the 850-hPa geopotential height field in summer, and the DTRs in three sub-regions are significantly different under the four SWPs, indicating that they play a role in regulating the DTR in YRDUA. In terms of the average DTR for each SWP, the southern sub-region of the YRDUA is the highest, followed by the northern sub-region, and the middle sub-region is the lowest, which is most significantly affected by high-level urbanization and high anthropogenic heat emission. The DTRU–R is negative and differs under the four different SWPs with variation in sunshine and rainfall. The difference in anthropogenic heat flux between urban and rural areas is one of the potentially important urbanization-related drivers for DTRU–R. Our findings help towards furthering our understanding of the response of DTR in urban agglomerations to different SWPs via the modulation of local meteorological conditions.

The Phenomenon of Diurnal Variations for Summer Deep Convective Precipitation over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Its Southern Regions as Viewed by TRMM PR

This study analyzed the diurnal variations of summer deep convective precipitation (DCP) over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and its southern region. The results show that DCP is the main type of precipitation over the QTP. The precipitation intensity of DCP is less than 3 mm/h over the QTP, which is much lower than the precipitation intensity in non-plateau regions. DCP over non-plateau regions is related to the convergence of surface wind, but that over the QTP are not. The mean maximum echo of DCP is less than 26 dBZ over the QTP, less than in non-plateau regions. The mean altitude of maximum echo decreases from about 7.5 km in the western plateau to 6 km in the eastern plateau, while it reaches only 4.5–5 km in the non-plateau region. The DCP frequency peak occurs in the afternoon in the major area of the QTP including valley region. The peak time of DCP frequency is different from its intensity, and the former is 1 to 2 h earlier. Study also indicates strong diurnal variations in frequency, intensity, and the maximum echo over the QTP, which is consistent with diurnal changes of geopotential height fields of 500 hPa and 200 hPa.

Elevated Ducts and Low Clouds over the Central Western Pacific Ocean in Winter Based on GPS Soundings and Satellite Observation

Both low clouds and elevated ducts are common phenomena in the oceanic atmosphere. Low clouds affect elevated ducts by changing the structure of atmospheric temperature and humidity. However, due to the limitation of met-ocean measurements, research on them is still scattered. This paper presents the distribution of elevated ducts and clouds over the central Western Pacific Ocean (WPO) based on Global Position System (GPS) sounding data and Himawari-8 satellite products from November 2015 to January 2016. Results show that the frequency of elevated ducts detected by ship-based GPS soundings was as high as 77% over the central WPO. The height and frequency of elevated ducts are closely related to the low clouds. If there are no clouds, the occurrence probability and mean base height of the elevated ducts are 14% and 730 m, respectively. By comparison, the occurrence probability and mean base height increase up to 24% and 1471 m, respectively, in the presence of cumulus (Cu) clouds, and 22% and 1511 m, respectively, in the presence of stratocumulus (Sc) clouds. Elevated ducts occur near the cloud top. The analysis of geopotential height and wind fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis dataset (ERA-interim) shows that the study area is covered by a strong and stable subtropical high, and slowly sinking dry air masses inside the subtropical high are above the moist boundary-layer air mass. The appearance and evolution of low clouds will adjust the temperature and humidity structure of the lower troposphere. If there are no clouds, the marine boundary layer (MBL) is the classic mixed boundary layer. Humidity gradient and subsidence inversion are formed atop the mixed layer. When low clouds are present, long wave radiation and entrainment atop clouds form a strong temperature inversion and humidity gradient, which strengthen elevated ducts. However, when Sc clouds are decoupled, a weaker temperature inversion and humidity gradient may occur between the surface mixed layer and subcloud layer, leading to a weak elevated duct atop the mixed layer.

Predicting origins of coherent air mass trajectories using a neural network—the case of dry intrusions

AbstractMid‐latitude cyclones are complex weather systems that are tightly related to surface weather impacts. Coherent air streams are known to be associated with such systems, in particular dry intrusions (DIs) in which dry air masses descend slantwise from the vicinity of the tropopause equatorward towards the surface. Often, DIs are associated with severe surface winds, heavy precipitation and frontogenesis. Currently, DIs can only be identified in hindsight by costly Lagrangian calculations using high resolution wind field data. Here, we use a novel method aiming to simplify the detection procedure of DI origins to allow their future identification in climate datasets, previously inaccessible for such diagnostic studies. A novel adaptation of a segmentation‐oriented neural network model is hereby presented as a successful tool to identify DI origins based solely on three ERA‐Interim reanalysis geopotential height fields, representing the state of the atmosphere. The model prediction skill is tested by calculating both the grid‐point and DI object based Matthews correlation coefficient. We find the model highly skilful in both reconstructing accurately the climatological distribution and predicting the vast majority of the individual DI origin objects. The skill decreases for relatively small objects and for objects occurring at locations where such cases are relatively less frequent. This indicates that geopotential height variability is related to the dynamic mechanisms involved in DI initiations. The results serve as a proof of concept for predicting DIs and other coherent air mass trajectories even when high resolution wind field data are not available, such as for model output for future climate projections.

Probabilistic Forecasting of the 500 hPa Geopotential Height over the Northern Hemisphere Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) were used to improve the prediction skill of the 500 hPa geopotential height field over the northern hemisphere with lead times of 1–7 days based on ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and UK Met Office (UKMO) ensemble prediction systems. The performance of BMA and EMOS were compared with each other and with the raw ensembles and climatological forecasts from the perspective of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting. The results show that the deterministic forecasts of the 500 hPa geopotential height distribution obtained from BMA and EMOS are more similar to the observed distribution than the raw ensembles, especially for the prediction of the western Pacific subtropical high. BMA and EMOS provide a better calibrated and sharper probability density function than the raw ensembles. They are also superior to the raw ensembles and climatological forecasts according to the Brier score and the Brier skill score. Comparisons between BMA and EMOS show that EMOS performs slightly better for lead times of 1–4 days, whereas BMA performs better for longer lead times. In general, BMA and EMOS both improve the prediction skill of the 500 hPa geopotential height field.

Analysis of the Positive Arctic Oscillation Index Event and Its Influence in the Winter and Spring of 2019/2020

There were continuous positive Arctic Oscillation index (AOI) and large-scale weather and climate anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in the winter and spring of 2019/2020, and the relationship between these anomalies is an important issue for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictability. This study shows that an AOI event with splitting characteristics occurred in the Northern Hemisphere and that there was a gap between the periods in event, which has not been observed in any of the 12 previous positive AOI events. The 3 stages of upward propagating planetary wave (UPPW) variation caused the gap between the periods. First, in early November, the westerly flow from the troposphere to the stratosphere weakened, resulting in persistent weak UPPWs that allowed a strong polar vortex to form. Then, the two strong UPPWs in January and early February caused the original westerlies to decelerate and induced warming in the lower stratosphere. However, the UPPWs caused only moderate changes in the geopotential height and temperature due to the strong polar vortex that had formed in the previous stage. This moderate AOI decline resulted in the conditions that divided the positive event into two periods. Finally, the low-level westerlies became stronger and strengthened the UPPWs into the stable stratosphere, which ended the second positive AOI period in late March. The role of zonal circulation anomalies (ZCA) in the upper stratosphere as metrics of and intermediates in UPPW-AO interactions is revealed in this study. The typical ZCA development mode was identified by statistical analysis and a composite treatment based on eight historical positive AOI events. In this mode, when strong UPPWs occur and lead to the consequent propagation of the ZCA from the stratosphere to the troposphere, the geopotential height field in the lower troposphere changes away from a typical AO mode; eventually, the AOI becomes abnormal. The temperature anomaly and ZCA produced in the two positive AOI periods during the winter and spring of 2019/2020 led to increasing precipitation in the eastern polar region, northern Asia, and areas along 60°N latitude.

A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean

Abstract. Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two complementary approaches to diagnose the predictability of extreme weather: recent developments in dynamical systems theory and numerical ensemble weather forecasts. The former allows us to define atmospheric configurations in terms of their persistence and local dimension, which provides information on how the atmosphere evolves to and from a given state of interest. These metrics may be used as proxies for the intrinsic predictability of the atmosphere, which only depends on the atmosphere's properties. Ensemble weather forecasts provide information on the practical predictability of the atmosphere, which partly depends on the performance of the numerical model used. We focus on heat waves affecting the eastern Mediterranean. These are identified using the climatic stress index (CSI), which was explicitly developed for the summer weather conditions in this region and differentiates between heat waves (upper decile) and cool days (lower decile). Significant differences are found between the two groups from both the dynamical systems and the numerical weather prediction perspectives. Specifically, heat waves show relatively stable flow characteristics (high intrinsic predictability) but comparatively low practical predictability (large model spread and error). For 500 hPa geopotential height fields, the intrinsic predictability of heat waves is lowest at the event's onset and decay. We relate these results to the physical processes governing eastern Mediterranean summer heat waves: adiabatic descent of the air parcels over the region and the geographical origin of the air parcels over land prior to the onset of a heat wave. A detailed analysis of the mid-August 2010 record-breaking heat wave provides further insights into the range of different regional atmospheric configurations conducive to heat waves. We conclude that the dynamical systems approach can be a useful complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics and predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.

Climate Variability of Atmospheric Rivers and Droughts over the West Coast of the United States from 2006 to 2019

Water resources are crucial to the livelihood and sustainability of the general public across the western United States. This study covers the timespan of both the third driest drought in Californian history between 2012 and 2015 as well as the extreme atmospheric river year in 2016–2017. The evaluation of vertical moisture profiles using Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) Radio Occultation (RO) data, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis of 500 hPa geopotential heights, 1000–500 hPa thickness, Optimum Interpolation (OI) Sea Surface Temperature (SST), NOAA/NDBC buoy data, and NASA, MEaSUREs, Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies (SSHA) were performed. The daily COSMIC time evolution from 2006 through 2015 showed a flat to slightly upward trend of both temperature and water vapor profiles through the entirety of the western US drought. Subsequently, a significant increase of temperatures and water vapor were recorded in early 2016 before the extreme Atmospheric River (AR) season of 2016–2017. The quantitative analyses suggest that warmer SST and higher SSHA lead to an increase of heat fluxes from the ocean into the troposphere, which forces thickness changes and thus the position of troughs in the geopotential height field changes afterwards, consequently pushing the trough eastward over the Pacific Northwest and potentially leading to an active AR year in the western US. It appears that regional COSMIC RO moisture profiles, seasonal SST, and SLH anomalies may serve as a precursor for seasonal or sub-seasonal precipitation outlook along the western US.

Identifying Periods of Forecast Model Confidence for Improved Subseasonal Prediction of Precipitation

AbstractSubseasonal forecast skill is not homogeneous in time, and prior assessment of the likely forecast skill would be valuable for end-users. We propose a method for identifying periods of high forecast confidence using atmospheric circulation patterns, with an application to southern Australia precipitation. In particular, we use archetypal analysis to derive six patterns, called archetypes, of daily 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) fields over Australia. We assign Z500 reanalysis fields to the closest-matching archetype and subsequently link the archetypes to precipitation for three key regions in the Australian agriculture and energy sectors: the Murray Basin, southwest Western Australia, and western Tasmania. Using a 20-yr hindcast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction system, we identify periods of high confidence as when hindcast Z500 fields closely match an archetype according to a distance criterion. We compare the precipitation hindcast accuracy during these confident periods compared to normal. Considering all archetypes, we show that there is greater skill during confident periods for lead times of less than 10 days in the Murray Basin and western Tasmania, and for greater than 6 days in southwest Western Australia, although these conclusions are subject to substantial uncertainty. By breaking down the skill results for each archetype individually, we highlight how skill tends to be greater than normal for those archetypes associated with drier-than-average conditions.

Spin-up characteristics with three types of initial fields and the restart effects on forecast accuracy in the GRAPES global forecast system

Abstract. The spin-up refers to the dynamic and thermal adjustments made at the initial stage of numerical integration in order to reach a statistical equilibrium state. The analyses on the characteristics and effects of spin-ups are of great significance for optimizing the initial field of the model and improving its forecast skills. In this paper, three different initial fields are used in the experiments: the analysis field of four-dimensional variational (4D-VAR) assimilation, the 3 h prediction field in the operational forecasting system, and the Final (FNL) Operational Global Analysis data provided by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Following this, the characteristics of spin-ups in the version 2.3.1 of GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) global forecast system (GRAPES_GFS2.3.1) under different initial fields are compared and analyzed. In addition, the influence of the lost cloud-field information on the spin-up and forecast results of the GRAPES model in the current operation is discussed as well. The results are as follows. With any initial field, the spin-up of GRAPES_GFS2.3.1 has to go through two stages – the dramatic adjustment in the first half-hour of integration and the slow dynamic and thermal adjustments afterwards. The spin-up in GRAPES_GFS2.3.1 lasts for at least 6 h, and the adjustment is gradually completed from lower to upper layers in the model. Therefore, in the evaluation of the GRAPES_GFS2.3.1, the forecast results in the first 6 h should be avoided, and the GRAPES_GFS2.3.1 with its own analysis field performs better than the one using FNL reanalysis data for the cold start in the spin-up because the variations in amplitude of the temperature and humidity tendency are smaller and the spin-up time is slightly shorter. Based on the 4D-VAR assimilation analysis field, the forecast in the operational model is artificially interrupted and restarted after 3 h of integration. In this process, as the cloud-field information is not retained, the spin-up should repeat in the model. The characteristics of spin-up are mostly consistent with those using the 4D-VAR assimilation analysis field as the initial field. However, as the cloud-field information is not retained in the current operation, the hydrometeor content in the atmosphere at the early stage of the forecast is underestimated, affecting the calculation accuracy of the radiation and causing a systematic positive bias of temperature and geopotential height fields at 500 hPa. In addition, the precipitation is also underestimated at the early stage of the simulation, affecting the forecast of typhoon tracks.

The Influence of Sudden Arctic Sea-Ice Thinning on North Atlantic Oscillation Events

ABSTRACT Utilizing the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4), the influence of sudden Arctic sea-ice thinning on North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) events is investigated on a sub-seasonal time scale. First, the control simulation with CAM4 using prescribed daily boundary conditions produces realistic descriptions for the frequency and evolution of NAO events. Second, sensitivity experiments are then conducted to investigate the impact of sudden Arctic sea-ice thinning on NAO events. Numerical results show that the NAO has obvious responses to sudden sea-ice thinning over 10 days. Finally, the NAO responses to sudden sea-ice thinning are related to the positions of the NAO event. Further diagnostic analysis reveals that when the poleward centre of a positive NAO event is located west (east) of Greenland, cold (warm) advection would be induced because of the sudden sea-ice thinning along with the northward (southward) wind. This cooling (warming) causes the air to contract (expand) and further results in a decrease (increase) in the geopotential height and sea level pressure fields, which corresponds to a positive NAO (negative NAO) response. The results of this investigation show that the response of atmospheric circulation to boundary conditions is determined by both boundary condition changes and the atmospheric circulation regime, which provides an understanding of the effect on an NAO event of sudden sea-ice thinning on a sub-seasonal time scale.

Construction of the Apparent Moisture Sink Index for the Movement of the South Asian High and Associated Indicative Significance

ABSTRACT Previous studies indicate that the “spring flood” precipitation in northwestern Yunnan is closely related to the movement of the South Asian High (SAH) and the apparent moisture sink (Q 2) in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study, using 38 years of ERA-Interim daily- and monthly-mean grid data along with 35 years of Gongshan daily precipitation data, the correlation between the movement of the SAH and Q 2 in the southeastern TP was analyzed. Then the Q 2 index (QI) of the SAH movement was constructed, and its impact on the activities of the SAH was analyzed. The results show that the QI affects the vertical transport of latent heat by interfering with the “chimney” effect, which in turn affects the atmospheric vertical motion in the southeastern TP and adjacent areas. This affects the upper 100 hPa wind field, resulting in changes in wind speed and direction in the upper air, the distribution of the geopotential height field, and the intensity and position of the SAH centre. The QI is positively and negatively correlated with the longitude and latitude of the SAH centre, respectively, and positively correlated with the intensity, implying a predictive effect on the movement trend and intensity evolution of the SAH.

Intra‐ and Inter‐Annual Variability of North Brazil Current Rings Using Angular Momentum Eddy Detection and Tracking Algorithm: Observations From 1993 to 2016

AbstractIn order to investigate intra‐ and inter‐annual variability of North Brazil Current (NBC) rings, angular momentum eddy detection and tracking algorithm (AMEDA) was used for identification of their occurrence, trajectories, and parameters. Based on 24 years (1993–2016) of geopotential height and geostrophic current fields reanalysis data from ARMOR 3D (¼°), we identified an average rate of five NBC rings shed by year. The rings present an average lifetime of 15.3 (±5.4) weeks, average speed‐based radius (Rmax) of 139.8 (±23.6) km, and mean sea surface height anomaly (SSHa) of 9.4 (±4.0) cm. The mean observed maximum azimuthal velocity (Vmax) was 0.27 (±0.08) m/s, while the averaged Rossby number (Ro) value was 0.08 (±0.04) and averaged kinetic energy (KE) was of 255.3 (±154.8) cm2/s2. NBC rings have larger dimensions, rotate faster, live less, and transfer more energy in boreal winter months. In contrast, those shed during boreal summer and early fall last longer, have smaller diameters and carry less energy. Besides, the analysis of ring merging pointed that the interaction between NBC rings generated a significantly increase in ring energy (52%), and velocity (22%). Finally, we observed the vertical anomalies temperature and salinity profiles, which indicated a thermocline deepening and sinking of coastal and tropical waters due to NBC rings downwelling. This study emphasizes the robustness and efficiency of AMEDA for studying rings in the ocean and further theorizes possible impacts of NBC ring on ocean physical and biogeochemical features in the Western Tropical North Atlantic.

Characterizing quasi-biweekly variability of the Asian monsoon anticyclone using potential vorticity and large-scale geopotential height field

Abstract. The spatial pattern of subseasonal variability of the Asian monsoon anticyclone is analyzed using long-term reanalysis data, focusing on the large-scale longitudinal movement. The air inside the anticyclone is quantified by a thickness-weighted low-PV (potential vorticity) area on an isentropic surface. It is shown that the longitudinal movement of the air inside the Asian monsoon anticyclone has a timescale of 1 to 2 weeks, which is shorter than the monthly dominant timescale of the variability in the anticyclone intensity. The movement of the anticyclonic air is suggested to be largely controlled by passive advection. The typical time evolution of the variability pattern, explained by two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) components of 100 hPa geopotential height, shows large-scale geopotential anomalies moving westward spanning from low to middle latitudes. This corresponds well with the rapid westward movement of low-PV air known as “eddy shedding” and following the eastward retreat of the anticyclonic air. The two EOF components can also explain the bimodal longitudinal distribution of geopotential maximum location.

Attribution of Persistent Precipitation in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin during February 2019

In February 2019, a month-long persistent precipitation event occurred in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin. The geopotential height field that affected the duration of this frontal rainfall was divided into a high-latitude part and a low-latitude part for analysis. In the high-latitude part, a two-wave structure led to quasi-stationary circulation, and the change of both the blocking high pressure and Arctic Oscillation phase caused cold air to invade South China continuously and changed the frontal position. In mid-to-low latitudes, the persistent precipitation showed quasi-biweekly oscillation characteristics. The so-called “subtropical high-precipitation-anticyclone” (SHPA) feedback mechanism blocked the circulation systems in the mid-to-low latitudes and provided a continuous supply of water vapor for precipitation. As for the effect of sea surface temperature, the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone stimulated by El Nino strengthened the intensity of the southerly wind and provided support for the redevelopment of the anticyclone system in the SHPA feedback mechanism. The sea surface temperature anomaly in the South China Sea provided sensible heating for precipitation, and convergent rising airflow was conducive to the occurrence of precipitation. Additionally, the SHPA mechanism provides a reliable basis for the prediction of persistent precipitation in winter in the mid-to-low latitudes.

Dynamics and predictability of cold spells over the Eastern Mediterranean

The accurate prediction of extreme weather events is an important and challenging task, and has typically relied on numerical simulations of the atmosphere. Here, we combine insights from numerical forecasts with recent developments in dynamical systems theory, which describe atmospheric states in terms of their persistence (θ−1) and local dimension (d), and inform on how the atmosphere evolves to and from a given state of interest. These metrics are intuitively linked to the intrinsic predictability of the atmosphere: a highly persistent, low-dimensional state will be more predictable than a low-persistence, high-dimensional one. We argue that θ−1 and d, derived from reanalysis sea level pressure (SLP) and geopotential height (Z500) fields, can provide complementary predictive information for mid-latitude extreme weather events. Specifically, signatures of regional extreme weather events might be reflected in the dynamical systems metrics, even when the actual extreme is not well-simulated in numerical forecasting systems. We focus on cold spells in the Eastern Mediterranean, and particularly those associated with snow cover in Jerusalem. These rare events are systematically associated with Cyprus Lows, which are the dominant rain-bearing weather system in the region. In our analysis, we compare the ‘cold spell Cyprus Lows’ to other ‘regular’ Cyprus Low days. Significant differences are found between cold spells and ‘regular’ Cyprus Lows from a dynamical systems perspective. When considering SLP, the intrinsic predictability of cold spells is lowest hours before the onset of snow. We find that the cyclone’s location, depth and magnitude of air-sea fluxes play an important role in determining its intrinsic predictability. The dynamical systems metrics computed on Z500 display a different temporal evolution to their SLP counterparts, highlighting the different characteristics of the atmospheric flow at the different levels. We conclude that the dynamical systems approach, although sometimes challenging to interpret, can complement conventional numerical forecasts and forecast skill measures, such as model spread and absolute error. This methodology outlines an important avenue for future research, which can potentially be fruitfully applied to other regions and other types of weather extremes.

Changes in General Atmospheric Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in 1998–2018

The analysis of systematic changes in the Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height field is performed. The dataset of the 5-day mean values of 500 hPa geopotential height during 1998–2018 is used for this purpose and is represented by the coefficients of its expansions in spherical functions. It is found that the hemispheric mean value of 500 hPa geopotential height increased by 1.0–2.0 dam during the analyzed 20-year period depending on a season. The west-to-east propagation of air particles in the mid-latitudes systematically weakened in the cold season (January, October) but increased in the warm season (April, July). A small negative trend in the amplitudes of some ultralong waves is detected. This can facilitate a weakening of the planetary blocking of zonal circulation. Besides, a weak positive trend in the amplitudes of some synoptic waves is found, which can favor an increase in the cyclone activity.

Wet spells over the core monsoon domain of northern Pakistan during the summer season

AbstractFlooding events or wet spells have increased over Pakistan in recent years. However, a long‐term classification of large‐scale and synoptic‐scale configuration for these events has been lacking. In this study, a total of 53 wet spells during the period of 1951–2015 over the core monsoon domain of northern Pakistan are identified using rainfall data. Based on daily geopotential height fields from NCEP/NCAR re‐analysis, the dominant synoptic‐scale systems, displaying distinct low‐level circulation and moisture transport, are found during these wet spells over Pakistan. They are categorized as trough with low pressure system (LPS, 30 cases), trough without LPS (19 cases) and LPS only (4 cases) wet spells. Without the accompanying LPS over India, the trough tends to be deep and intrudes to southern Pakistan with moisture transport mainly from the Arabian Sea. In contrast, the trough is relatively shallow and interacts with presence of the LPS to steer moisture from the Bay of Bengal towards Pakistan. We found that subtropical trough is an essential ingredient of wet spells over Pakistan. This is different from wet spells over the core monsoon domain of India, which is mainly dominated by LPS. The ridge development over Siberia is a precursor to wet spells over Pakistan and provides guidance for prediction.