Attribution of Persistent Precipitation in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin during February 2019

Abstract

In February 2019, a month-long persistent precipitation event occurred in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin. The geopotential height field that affected the duration of this frontal rainfall was divided into a high-latitude part and a low-latitude part for analysis. In the high-latitude part, a two-wave structure led to quasi-stationary circulation, and the change of both the blocking high pressure and Arctic Oscillation phase caused cold air to invade South China continuously and changed the frontal position. In mid-to-low latitudes, the persistent precipitation showed quasi-biweekly oscillation characteristics. The so-called “subtropical high-precipitation-anticyclone” (SHPA) feedback mechanism blocked the circulation systems in the mid-to-low latitudes and provided a continuous supply of water vapor for precipitation. As for the effect of sea surface temperature, the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone stimulated by El Nino strengthened the intensity of the southerly wind and provided support for the redevelopment of the anticyclone system in the SHPA feedback mechanism. The sea surface temperature anomaly in the South China Sea provided sensible heating for precipitation, and convergent rising airflow was conducive to the occurrence of precipitation. Additionally, the SHPA mechanism provides a reliable basis for the prediction of persistent precipitation in winter in the mid-to-low latitudes.