Geopolitical Significance Research Articles

Governance and public administration in China

ABSTRACT Pressing new (and old) challenges has put systems of governance and public administration under pressure around the globe. In this era, there is an ever greater need to globalize academic knowledge and learn from divergent systems. China has traditionally been held up as a suis generis exemplar of a particular mode of governance. An updated understanding of modern China and Chinese research on public administration stands to enrich the discipline by challenging old myths and assumptions – or by empirically demonstrating some enduring features. Given China’s size and geopolitical significance, it is also an important focus of study. This article outlines the key features of the Chinese system of government, governance and public administration. It maps the contours of the evolution of the study of public administration in China from the start of the twentieth century to a more mature and globally connected discipline in the present day. It also summarizes articles in this volume which shed new light on power, governance and public administration in modern China. They also provide new insights into governance and public administration theory. The volume shows that China has seen some localization and decentralization, alongside experiments with collaboration and networked-based policy making. However, the system of governance and public administration remains innately top-down and centralized with the center holding strong policy levers and control over society. As the pandemic revealed, this statist approach provided both governing opportunities and disadvantages.

Mapping state-sponsored information operations with multi-view modularity clustering

This paper presents a new computational framework for mapping state-sponsored information operations into distinct strategic units. Utilizing a novel method called multi-view modularity clustering (MVMC), we identify groups of accounts engaged in distinct narrative and network information maneuvers. We then present an analytical pipeline to holistically determine their coordinated and complementary roles within the broader digital campaign. Applying our proposed methodology to disclosed Chinese state-sponsored accounts on Twitter, we discover an overarching operation to protect and manage Chinese international reputation by attacking individual adversaries (Guo Wengui) and collective threats (Hong Kong protestors), while also projecting national strength during global crisis (the COVID-19 pandemic). Psycholinguistic tools quantify variation in narrative maneuvers employing hateful and negative language against critics in contrast to communitarian and positive language to bolster national solidarity. Network analytics further distinguish how groups of accounts used network maneuvers to act as balanced operators, organized masqueraders, and egalitarian echo-chambers. Collectively, this work breaks methodological ground on the interdisciplinary application of unsupervised and multi-view methods for characterizing not just digital campaigns in particular, but also coordinated activity more generally. Moreover, our findings contribute substantive empirical insights around how state-sponsored information operations combine narrative and network maneuvers to achieve interlocking strategic objectives. This bears both theoretical and policy implications for platform regulation and understanding the evolving geopolitical significance of cyberspace.

Scenarios of the Union State of Belarus and Russia Evolution: values and pragmatics

Introduction. The Union State of Russia and Belarus, as well as its participating countries, are once again in their history facing a choice of further development path. Multiple challenges and threats affect the formulation and interpretation of many issues, including those related to axiological parameters, determining the variability of their solutions and increasing the need to anticipate, prevent or minimize the negative consequences of existing/probable risk situations. The purpose of this study is to identify possible options for the evolution of the Union State of Belarus and Russia as an integration format from the perspective of its geopolitical significance and socio-philosophical meaning in a dynamically changing internal and external environment. Methods. The study was based on a systematic approach that allowed us to consider the Union State of Belarus and Russia as a complex integration system. The methods of traditional document study, comparative analysis, political diagnostics, scenario analysis were used. Results and Discussion. The key parameters of the complexity of the Union State as an integration association are determined, the scenarios of its evolution in the positive and negative spectrum are substantiated. The generalized trends for them are the deepening of integration – with a wide coverage of the spheres and sectors of integration and the deactualization of bilateral integration with the loss of the creativity of the idea and the effectiveness of integration practice, the narrowing of the overall integration field, respectively. Conclusion. The most plausible scenarios of the first group include the option of “Belarusian-Russian Confederation”, the least acceptable – “Russian-Belarusian Federation” and “Slavic integration”, although their axiological component is the most obvious. Among the scenarios of the second group are “Back to the Future” and “Marginalization of the Union State”, as well as a catastrophic option. Systemic vulnerabilities that enhance the prospects for the implementation of negative scenarios are shown. The ill-considered nature of the general strategy, ideology and model of union construction, the lack of formation of union law, the rudimentary nature of supranationality in the management system of the Union State, the imbalance of integration levers, the limited tools of integration, the elitism of political communications, the insufficiency of socio-political support for union construction are emphasized. Conclusions are drawn about the need to ensure a reasonable balance between values and pragmatics in the Russian-Belarusian integration, the importance of constructive and active work in the internal dimension, a joint response to external destructive influence.

What are the Applicable Norms and Principles of International Law Delimitation of the Caspian Sea?

The purpose of this research was to identify the law applicable to the delimitation of the Caspian Sea and selecting the best approach in this regards. In this sense, in the beginning, the geopolitical significance of the Caspian Sea in the region and the importance of the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea were reviewed. In order to examine applicable law, international legal resources under Article 38 of statute of international court of justice (ICJ) and the best current approaches, standards, principles and methods for international maritime delimitation were discussed. Furthermore, the main source of current and past legal statutes of the Caspian Sea, Soviet-Iranian agreement, bilateral agreement on the northern part of the Caspian Sea delimitation and the Caspian Sea Convention was considered. In addition, special conditions and circumstance of the Caspian Sea coast were assessed, and the best approach for the demarcation of the Caspian Sea, the three stage approach, was analyzed. It is worthy to mention, this work is a compressed and update version of my Master thesis1 at world maritime university.

Status of the Caspian Sea Issue within the Framework of International Law: 1991–2014 years

In the period from 1729 to 1991, two main actors, that is, the USSR and Iran, dominated the Caspian region. However, with the collapse of the USSR and the formation of three new Turkic-speaking states, the number of coastal countries increased to five. This led to the beginning of the struggle for dominance and division of the hydrocarbon resources of the Caspian. This struggle, in which many non-regional actors participated at various levels, especially the United States, EU countries, and China, further increased the geopolitical significance of the Caspian. With the collapse of the bipolar world order, the Caspian region came to the fore as the world's third largest hydrocarbon reserves in terms of energy resources, the Caspian basin turned from a bilateral into a basin of multi-vector relations. The new independent actors on the Caspian coast, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, are land states that do not have direct access to the international ocean due to their current geopolitical position. Due to their geopolitical nature, the problems of international transportation and corridors have brought oil and gas pipelines to the forefront of the agenda of these countries. Therefore, the countries bordering the Caspian continue to perceive the status of the Caspian as a national security issue. The article analyzes and historically explores the geopolitical significance of the Caspian region within the framework of classical geopolitical theories and, in particular, covers the period after the Cold War until 2014. In this regard, both geopolitical theories and theoretical assumptions are analyzed within the framework of classical theories.

Geopolitical Resonance of the VI All-Belarusian People’s Assembly

This work is aimed at studying the results of the VI All-Belarusian People’s Assembly.Aim. Determine the geopolitical dimension of the VI All-Belarusian People’s Assembly as an integration project of the Republic of Belarus.Tasks. To study the nature of preparation in the Republic of Belarus for the VI All-Belarusian People’s Assembly. Analyze the main provisions and conclusions of the report of the President of the Republic of Belarus A. G. Lukashenko and speakers at the Meeting. To generalize the geopolitical dimension of the results of the VI All-Belarusian People’s Assembly.Methodology. Study of documents of the VI All-Belarusian People’s Assembly on the basis of information and analytical technologies, including the provisions of critical geopolitics and high-quality content analysis.Results. None of the previous similar forums received such a noticeable political resonance at the preparatory stage and was not subject to oblivion after its end. Thorough preparation, the study of public opinion, the preceding broad national dialogue determined the main distinguishing feature of the Assembly. The composition of its participants quite fully reflected the social structure of the entire Belarusian society. The nature of the discussion at the Meeting was det ermined by the report of the Head of State. The overwhelming majority of delegates, showing a high level of geopolitical selfidentification, supported the main conclusions and provisions of this report. During the discussion at the Meeting, the question arose about the geopolitical security of the Republic of Belarus in a new geopolitical configuration in Europe. The assessment of Russia as the main geo-economic partner and geostrategic ally is given. The position of the delegates in relation to strengthening the efficiency of public administration and, accordingly, the geopolitical position of the Republic of Belarus has been determined.Conclusions. The geopolitical significance of Belarus today lies in the fact that it is acquiring the image of a full-fledged designer of the Eurasian space. The VI All-Belarusian Assembly became a special forum in the modern history of the republic, which took place in the fateful period of the development of Belarusian society. The VI All-Belarusian People’s Assembly became an indicator of the understanding of the Belarusian society of the geopolitical future of their country, the abili ty to “rise” to the geopolitical level of assessing the current situation, both in the republic and in the wo rld as a whole.

Becoming Menard? Geopolitical Readings and the Authorial Subject in César Aira

ABSTRACT This article discusses César Aira’s critical engagement with Jorge Luis Borges’s masterful short story ‘Pierre Menard, autor del Quijote’. While there are few overt references to Borges’s story within Aira’s essayistic output, it will be shown that those that do exist are highly significant. Indeed, it will be argued that Aira’s literary process — developed at length and in detail across his critical work — is heavily indebted to ‘Pierre Menard’. Opening first with a reflection on Borges’s Evaristo Carriego, the article explores the ways in which Aira discusses Borges’s story in relation to the Duchampian ready-made, uncovers its importance within his analysis of exotic literature, and argues that Aira inverts Menard’s labour by shifting his focus from the act of reading to the act of writing in his re-creation of the story. In this way, it will be proposed that Aira advocates an a-personal process which nonetheless affirms a central place for the individual author, while simultaneously producing works of geopolitical significance. Ultimately, it will be shown that the story provides the inspiration for Aira’s conceptualization of the literary work as a temporal event, and the promotion of a formless marginality which undermines colonial taxonomies.

Вопросы теории международного сотрудничества в сфере безопасности в рамках БРИКС

We analyze the problems of finding the most effective collective security mechanisms at various levels. The relevance of this topic is due to the priority of the tasks of modern states in the field of maintaining security. Issues of the theory of legal regulation of interstate relations are of particular relevance. The growing tension and other destructive tendencies in the modern world create many prerequisites for a possible transition to another level of international cooperation in the field of security. The development of new alliances and attempts to expand the role of existing interstate mechanisms actualize the issues of improving the formats of international cooperation in this area. BRICS, one of the key formats of multilateral cooperation aimed at creating their own model of interaction, continues to offer participants the opportunity to demonstrate not only an important geo-economic and humanitarian role, but also geopolitical significance in the world. We conclude that the growing influence of many factors of the new geopolitical reality determines the renewal of existing security strategies and the formation of new BRICS priorities. The need to expand the role of BRICS in this area, in which the influence of certain internal factors and especially the changing conjuncture of international relations on this process is still important, requires the use of the most flexible mechanisms and channels of cooperation aimed at both developing BRICS soft security mechanisms and on the further improvement of their own system of collective security as a whole. The above study and conclusions contribute to the development of the science of the theory of state and law in the field of regulation of international relations.

Images of north-east Asia in expeditional and author's photo projects: strategies for visualization of research objects in the II half of the 19th - the beginning of the 20th century

Yakutia is a region, where 40% of territories are located in the Arctic zone; it belongs to a geographic zone with extreme natural and climatic conditions, where traditional types of farming continue to prevail. Today, the modern processes in the field of ethnic selfidentification and revival take place in it considering its geopolitical significance, as well as the study of their historical past, and are of particular relevance, where not the last role is played by visual and anthropological resources that are currently preserved in institutions of historical memory (museums, libraries, archives). The visual image becomes a key unified means of influence. Using the example of the Yakutsk region, the article examines the aspect of the visual development of the north-eastern territories of the Russian Empire as a form of scientific knowledge developed by Russian academic science in the process of their study. The systematic use of artistic practices (pictorial recording, photography) in the scientific and methodological tools of the research carried out subsequently had a great practical result, and had formed an impressive layer of visual anthropological materials. The paper examines the main visual images representing a multi-ethnic region.

State of the Gas Transportation System: Current Challenges and Risks

The work defines the role of the gas transportation system of Ukraine, in the conditions of Ukraine’s conflict with the Russian Federation. The basic idea of the article, on which further conclusions are based, is the principle laid down in the Preamble of the Constitution of Ukraine, according to which the irreversibility of the European and Euro-Atlantic course of the state is approved. An analysis of the demand for gas transportation services through the gas transportation system by consumers on the domestic and international markets was conducted. The geopolitical significance of Ukraine as the owner of one of the largest gas transportation systems in the world, through which the largest share of natural gas from Russia to the European Union is transited, is determined. The gas transportation system is state property, which is under the management of LLC “Operator of the gas transportation system of Ukraine”, therefore, during the analysis, the results of the implementation of the budget program “Supporting the implementation of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine” from 2018 to 2021 were taken into account, in which guidelines for the development of fuel and of the energy complex in the conditions of variability of the general socio-economic and security situation. The system of state regulation in the oil and gas sector of Ukraine is schematically presented. The development of the national economy depends on the efficiency of providing energy resources to the actors of economic relations. In the course of the work, the volumes and directions of use of natural gas among the participants of the national market were analyzed. Low energy efficiency is a characteristic feature of the activities of subjects of economic relations in the domestic market. Through the interpretation of the articles of the Constitution of Ukraine and the Law “On the National Security of Ukraine”, the circle of subjects entrusted with the functions of ensuring the national security of the state is determined. A number of legislatively approved measures aimed at overcoming crisis phenomena, including the energy crisis, are outlined. Ways of ensuring state security are proposed, which involve the achievement of strategic goals in the energy industry and in the field of gas transportation in particular.

Питання Криму в українських геополітичних доктринах першої половини ХХ сторіччя

The article is devoted to the analysis of the coverage of the Crimea issue for the existence and development of Ukrainian statehood in the geopolitical teachings of Ukrainian thinkers of the first half of the twentieth century. For them, the "Crimean issue" is part of the theoretical search for geopolitical directions of Ukraine’s development in the past, present and in the future. It is emphasized that the consideration of the geographical factor as an important factor in politics has a significant historical tradition. It is noted that Ukrainian geopolitical theorists of the first half of the twentieth century assumed that the conquest of the northern Black Sea coast provided Ukraine with access to the communication space in terms of defense, political interaction with its partners and trade and economic ties. It is noted that the works analyzed in this article state that the geopolitical significance of the Crimean peninsula, the Black Sea area and the Ukrainian lands is virtually unchanged in different historical epochs from antiquity to the events of the early twentieth century. It is noted that the loss of Crimea in 1918 was seen by Ukrainian geopolitical thought of the first half of the twentieth century as a strategic defeat, which was due, among other things, to the quality of the then domestic political elite and its lack of fundamental geopolitical knowledge. At the same time, thinkers draw attention to the fact that the then political partners of the young Ukrainian state were guided in their actions, primarily on the basis of their own national geopolitical interests. It is concluded that the theoretical work of representatives of Ukrainian political thought of the first half of the twentieth century in the situation around Ukraine and throughout the Eastern European region, including the issue of deoccupation and return of the Crimean peninsula to Ukrainian jurisdiction.

Sliding into the abyss? Bosnia-Herzegovina 30 years after the start of the war

This article reviews the current political, social and economic situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina just after the thirtieth anniversary of the start of the war (April 1992). Drawing on a variety of judiciously-chosen contemporary sources in the German language, and taking account of the parallels which can be drawn with analysis of the geopolitical significance of the war in Ukraine, the authors consider the impact of the nationalisms which have taken centre stage not only in how Bosnia-Herzegovina is currently viewed in international perspective but which, more importantly, have sparked sabre-rattling threats of secession. In part, such threats represent a diversionary tactic by political leaders in the light of various enduring domestic crises, including unemployment, corruption and the emigration of skilled young people, but they may see the country slide into the abyss. Nevertheless, the authors are not without hope that the ‘togetherness’ which represents the Bosnian specific can be rebuilt, despite media focus on ethnic blocs and division, but the positive signs that do exist need to be both captured and reinforced.

RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN AFGHANISTAN AFTER THE MILITARY COUP OF 2021. STRATEGIC STABILITY AS AN IMPERATIVE

. After the military coup in Afghanistan in 2021 there was a need to look anew at the geopolitical significance of the region. In this context, there is an imperative for Russia to build mutually beneficial and stable relations with the new Kabul authorities, given the strategic importance of Afghanistan in Moscow's security architecture (mainly related to Central Asia and threat of terrorism). Besides, the opportunity emerged, against the backdrop of failed US attempts to establish peace in Afghanistan, to achieve long-term stability in Afghanistan and overall, the region through cooperation with the new Afghan government. Having achieved this, Russia will ensure the security of its allies and partners in Central Asia and minimize threats to regional security and regional interests of her.

The Abraham Accords between Israel, UAE and Bahrain in the context of changing of the geopolitical reality in the Middle East

The article analyzes the geopolitical significance of the normalization agreements between Israel, UAE and Bahrain, which were signed in September 2020 and became known as the Abraham Accords (the title refers to the Biblical Abraham, who is considered to be the forefather of both Arabs and Jews). The authors examine the historical background of the agreements, their features and differences from the previous acts on the Arab-Israeli settlement, as well as their impact on the geopolitical reality of the Middle East. In addition, the article contains predictions on the possible prospects of the remaining Gulf States (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait) joining the agreements. As the authors note, the normalization between Israel and the two Gulf monarchies has become possible due to three main factors. The first factor is the presence of the common enemy, Iran, which threatens both the Jewish state and the Gulf monarchies. The second factor is the consequential decline of the importance of the Palestinian issue among the Gulf leaders, disappointed with the stubbornness of Palestinian leadership and interested in cooperation with Israel. Finally, the authors underline the pro-Israeli policies of D.J.Trump, which strongly stimulated the acceleration in the normalization process, focusing on the Arab-Israeli normalization before reaching a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Thus, according to the authors, the Abraham Accords have a potential to stimulate an acceleration to Arab-Israeli reconciliation all across the MENA region as it already did with Morocco and Sudan, which followed UAR and Bahrain in normalizing with Israel shortly after the accords were signed.

Round Table "Four Hundred Years of the Battle of Khotyn: Historical and Geopolitical Significance"

Round Table "Four Hundred Years of the Battle of Khotyn: Historical and Geopolitical Significance"

Peter I and the Birth of the Russian Empire: Political Leadership and Military Successes in Comparative Perspective

Empires are usually born through political recognition and extensive military successes. The ruler’s personality and the activities of political and military advisors and generals are crucial for the emergence of an empire. The authors argue that in the case of Peter the Great (Peter I), the political recognition and military successes were achieved simultaneously in the east and west, however, in different contexts. The authors make a series of comparisons between Peter I and other monarchs of the epoch, such as Carl XII, August II, Frederick I, Carlos II, Willem III, Leopold VI, and others, relying on three main categories, namely education, “vices and virtues” and political views. This comparison is necessary to highlight the essential prerequisites in Peter’s personal development that might have determined his political actions. In addition, the article carries out an evaluation of the geopolitical significance of the military campaigns and victories achieved by the tzar and his commanders. These achievements are substantiated to correlate with Russian rise as a great power directly. After the Peace of Nystad, the geopolitical interests of the Tsardom were finally met, with the territorial dominium of the Empire being outlined for a century ahead.Furthermore, the territorial expansion was accompanied by the exercise of the “imperium” as a political authority exclusive to the Russian monarchs. The authors try to highlight the connection between the personal development of monarchs, their achievements, and imperial ambitions. The comparative analysis of these factors in various imperial cases provides additional considerations for understanding the historical period.

The European Union and the creation of the new security periphery

The European Union (EU) enlargement went through strong processes of Europeanisation that, apart from revealing the regulatory power of the EU, reflect its ability to transform the identity of those countries candidates to membership. Considered as one of the most important and successful instruments of foreign and security action, the succeeding enlargement policies to the East, particularly those of 2004 and 2007, represented a significant contribution for the establishment of an extended security community. An assessment on the countries of the West Balkans is presented, since their processes of accession to the EU now extend for more than a decade. The undeniable geopolitical and geostrategic significance, shown throughout history by the risks of spreading the internal conflicts across the European borders, make this region one of the most vital of the EU’s periphery, to its security. In spite of this significance, the current “enlargement fatigue”, motivated largely by the lack of consensus amongst member-states, drives away the countries of the Balkans from veering towards the EU, thereby rendering them more susceptible to the influence of foreign players, particularly that of China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey. In that context, it is argued that the EU, by setting aside the enlargement politic to the countries of the West Balkans, gives a deeply negative sign to the region, moving them away from the criteria established for the europeanization processes reached so far, and as a consequence, placing themselves under de influence of foreign players, circumstances which jeopardise the stability in the EU periphery.

THE CASPIAN REGION: DEVELOPMENT RESULTS AND NEW TRENDS

The Caspian region came into the focus of attention of the Caspian and non-regional states even prior to the collapse of the U.S.S.R. The increased global attention to this region was associated with the presence of proven and potential reserves of hydrocarbon resources, which increased the region’s geopolitical significance. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Caspian region found itself in the center of geopolitical rivalry. From that time on, the subject of energy acquired a new meaning in the Caspian region. Western oil and gas companies and government agencies began to demonstrate an increased interest in the hydrocarbon resources of the Caspian region. Moreover, for decades the West has maintained a close focus on the Eurasian space, in particular, on the problems associated with the production and transportation of hydrocarbon resources. The most acute geopolitical standoff occurred between Russia and the United States, which supported various pipeline projects. For Russia, the key task was to preserve its regional dominance, which had been growing over the course of several centuries. The United States supported the geopolitical turn of the new Caspian states, advocating the creation of new hydrocarbon supply routes that would bypass Russian territory. The key task for the Caspian states was to increase hydrocarbon production and provide reliable routes for their export to foreign markets. Based on these goals, the Caspian states built their own foreign policy, including intraregional policy. Thirty years later, the results of geopolitical rivalry are visible. The Caspian countries, which rely on financial resources and political support from non-regional actors, have implemented large-scale hydrocarbon export projects. The new pipeline architecture has changed the balance of power in the Caspian region, increasing the involvement of the Caspian states in the energy policy of Turkey, China, and the EU. At the same time, the regional states have managed to solve the problem of the international legal status of the Caspian Sea in a five-sided format. A new trend of the last decade has involved projects related to the construction of coastal infrastructure and expansion of shipping. The Caspian countries are growing increasingly more interested in participating in international transport projects, considering them as an important component of their foreign policy. Despite the attained agreements and solutions to key problems, competition between the Caspian states, which is greatly influenced by non-regional actors, is intensifying.

Моніторинг і збереження ґрунтів як компонент системи сталого управління агроекосистемами локального рівня

The article assesses the prospects of local and regional agroecosystems to provide modern measures to improve the quality of land and soils. The authors applied the analysis (induction and deduction) of guiding and normative documents and current publications of both Ukrainian and European on the organization of sustainable use of soils and the priority of their protection. It is important to remember, that the United Nations (U.N.) sustainable development goals (SDGs, indicator 15.3.1) have land degradation neutrality by 2030. A serious aspect of the article is the assessment of the possibilities of Ukrainian agriculture to implement a system of sustainable soil management at the local level in the near future. It is determined that drivers for soil management of agroecosystems, which determine the agenda for all land users and landowners are follows: (1) global processes and geopolitical significance of agriculture; (2) characteristics of soils as a natural object, in particular, their irreplaceability, non-renewability and performance of global biosphere functions; (3) national features, including the lack of real monitoring, gaps in legislation and non-compliance with existing regulations and acts and the land market. Therefore, there is a need for precise legislation to protect and preserve soils, as well as the implementation of agricultural technologies that will ensure a land degradation neutrality and soil sequestration of carbon. Given the uncertainty about the functioning of real soil monitoring at the state level, we consider it promising to organize soil monitoring as a local network. This means that the creation of a components of a specific soil management system should be provided by land users. The authors are convinced that experimental stations in the structure of NAAS should maintain / create their own database. Based on such a database it will be possible to effectively ensure sustainable soil management, namely: to assess soils current state at the moment, ecosystem services from soils, to predict the dynamics of soil indicators, to simulate different variants of their changes and so on. The costs of such a local GIS are offset by gains, including profits from business activities for many years to come. Due to the increased attention to soil organic carbon reserves (introduction of carbon taxes, restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions), it is urgent to assess and forecast the processes of carbon emission-sequestration and appropriate soil capabilities for a particular type of land use. Soil scientists are ready to develop a method of data collection and local GIS, taking into account the specifics of the type of agriculture.

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s New Population Policy and Recent Changes in Fertility

After dropping rapidly and steadily over two decades, fertility in Iran stabilized between 2001 and 2011 at around 1.9 to 2 children per woman, before starting to rise slightly between 2012 and 2016, then falling fairly quickly. This coincided with the implementation of the Islamic Republic’s new population policy, with its aggressive and coercive measures, one of whose goals was to reverse the downwards trend in fertility. Given changes in proximate and remote determinants of fertility in Iran, and the decline in fertility since 2016, it is assumed that this new population policy triggered a reduction in intervals between births between 2012 and 2015, leading to a slight rise in the fertility of already married couples. The other latent objective of the Islamic Republic’s new population policy is to drive Iran’s population up to 150 million inhabitants in the near future. This is utopian given Iran’s demographic dynamics, but it conceals the political and ideological goal of asserting Iran’s demographic and geopolitical significance within the region, by drawing on a novel immigration policy to make up for its low fertility.