Geopolitical Competition Research Articles

Norm Entrepreneurship in Digital Trade: The Singapore-led Wave of Digital Trade Agreements.

Rulemaking in digital trade is proceeding apace. Many preferential trade agreements contain dedicated e-commerce or digital trade chapters and some states have entered into stand-alone digital economy agreements. This article seeks to establish whether, and to what extent, normative change is occurring in digital trade agreements, the nature of any changes, and identify which states are acting as norm entrepreneurs. We employ a new method of legal coding, systematically comparing the nature and prescriptiveness of digital provisions in 12 trade agreements concluded between 2019 and 2023. We find evidence of substantial policy innovation, and identify Singapore as the key norm entrepreneur. A new wave of 'Singapore-led' agreements substantially expands the scope of digital trade, to cover areas such as digital identities, e-invoicing and e-payments, the governance of AI, and regulation of new digital technologies. Commitments are typically couched as soft rather than hard law, reflecting the nascent stages of rulemaking. Norm entrepreneurship on the part of Singapore and its allies reflects a desire to position themselves as 'digital hubs' in the global economy, spur rulemaking in areas where innovation is ahead of regulation, and promote digital interconnectivity at time of regulatory divergence and geopolitical rivalry.

Socio-Spatial Multiplicity in World Politics: Non-Western Regional Imaginations of the Indo-Pacific

Abstract Originally a biogeographic term, “Indo-Pacific” is increasingly replacing “Asia-Pacific” in political discourse. This is not merely a linguistic matter but also has political implications. However, the meaning of “Indo-Pacific” remains unclear, and its implications are contested. While it has attracted the attention of a wide spectrum of political pundits, the regional designation “Indo-Pacific” is used to describe a space of global cooperation and geopolitical competition. This study makes two contributions by reexamining this debate. First, it helps lift the fog around the Indo-Pacific to gain a deeper understanding and encourage reflection on its current rise. Thus, it is situated within a growing body of literature that excavates the complex history of the Indo-Pacific by revisiting its Japanese wartime origins. Second, drawing on the emergent literature on multiplicity, this study shows how the term has historically invoked two different kinds of international relations in Japan. This suggests the importance of examining multiple socio-spatial imaginations internalized by diverse collectivities in the social space of international politics that goes beyond modern European state borders. Introduced by the Japanophile German geopolitician Karl Haushofer, the term was originally used to express the area of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere, a region that aimed to create a world order that differed from the Western one. This significantly contradicts contemporary usage by the Japanese government, which claims that universal values exist in the region.

Representations of 5G in the Chinese and British press: a corpus-assisted critical discourse analysis

This study employs a corpus-assisted critical discourse analysis to demystify the dominant patterns of representations around 5G in the Chinese and British press. Keyword analyses identify four thematic categories around the representation of 5G: the nature of 5G, social actors in 5G discourse, actions around 5G and timing in 5G discourse. Findings suggest that the Chinese press tends to use positive evaluative expressions to depict 5G as a trustworthy and beneficial issue and stress China’s strong support for 5G development. In contrast, the British press prefers to frame 5G as a product of geopolitical rivalry and an issue with scientific uncertainties and controversies by repeatedly employing negative language patterns related to 5G risks and conspiracy theories. Besides, a subtle but varying “self versus other” schema is constructed by the two presses. The Chinese press is inclined to use positive predication strategies to construct a positive self-representation, whereas the British press tends to adopt negative predication strategies to portray China as an outgroup and meanwhile use scapegoating strategies to profile Britain as a positive self by using recurrent patterns denoting the pressure exerted on Britain by the United States. Such differences could result from their journalistic ideologies and values and the contrasting socio-political contexts where the two presses are situated.

Beyond environmentalism: The geopolitical chess game behind Indonesia’s mineral export bans and renewable energy transition

The increase in human energy consumption and the serious effects of the dominance of fossil energy, especially limited supply and climate change, have an impact on changes in the global geopolitical order. As such, the adaptation carried out by Indonesia became an important step in ensuring national energy security amidst global challenges. This research highlights the urgency of accelerating the energy transition to renewable sources in Indonesia as part of the national strategy. Efforts to accelerate the energy transition are not only a response to global demands, but also as an effort to maintain energy security, environmental sustainability, and are an important geopolitical factor. This study uses mixed research methods, where the author carries out quantitative data processing and then juxtaposes it with qualitative processing and analysis. The analysis was carried out using the concept of resource geopolitics. This study found that abundant renewable resource capacity, downstream efforts by the government, reduced dependence on other countries, and increasingly mature energy transition readiness make Indonesia better prepared to face global geopolitical competition. This study concludes that accelerating the energy transition in Indonesia is not just a response to global demands, but is also a strategic step to increase energy security, disaster resilience and environmental resilience.

China, international competition and the stalemate in sovereign debt restructuring: beyond geopolitics

Abstract Until recently, developing countries were supposedly enjoying an unprecedented ‘age of choice’ when borrowing. Many observers were arguing then that geopolitical competition between lenders allowed them to extract better terms. Today, many face a looming debt crisis: financing options have shrivelled and restructuring talks are painfully slow, compounding debtors' misery. This is frequently attributed to creditors' geopolitical rivalry, reflecting China's rise as a sovereign lender. But why should competition between providers, once supposedly a boon for borrowers, now be a bane? This article explains this, by switching an inadequate geopolitics lens for a political economy analysis. The earlier expansion in lending was primarily driven not by geopolitical contestation but by prevailing politico-economic conditions within China and on international financial markets amid US-led quantitative easing, and was, furthermore, facilitated by China's fragmented internal governance. As economic conditions changed, financing dried up and creditors scrambled to secure returns. China's current chief competitors are not western states, but rival lenders: commercial bondholders and multilateral development banks. Given China's fragmented governance, lenders' commercial motives to recoup their loans primarily drive Chinese behaviour, not geopolitical objectives. This limits China's hegemonic potential and suggests developing countries may benefit less from the ‘second Cold War’ than some imagine.

The Blue Pacific in Search of a Collective Identity: Towards Success in Regional Security amid US–China Rivalry

The Pacific Islands region has emerged as one of the central areas where the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China is playing out. Thus, to safeguard their own interests, the Pacific Island countries have attempted to manage the competing policies of these external partners. This study focuses the recent adoption of the ‘Blue Pacific concept’ to examine how Pacific Island countries attempt to influence the engagement of their external partners in the region. The formation of the ‘Blue Pacific’ identity must be understood as a mutual process between the Pacific Islands countries and their external partners because they are seeking cooperation with these partners to address the security concerns. We find that the ‘Blue Pacific’ identity formation aligns with region-building, which allows the Pacific Islands countries to stress their own security issues. This study highlights the challenges and opportunities of constructing a collective identity in this context. Finally, the effectiveness of the Blue Pacific strategy remains debatable, although it has yielded success in gaining recognition and support from the external partners.

From Liberalisation to Industrial Policy: Towards a Geoeconomic Turn in the European Defence Market?

AbstractThe European defence market can be described as a geoeconomically relevant sector that forms part of Europe's overall economy, not least in the way that it is a producer of military capabilities and technologies and a repository of scientific skills. Traditionally, European Union (EU)‐level steps to support and liberalise the sector have reflected a regulatory approach marked by soft law, but in recent years, the EU has also developed financial tools to incentivise defence co‐operation. Looking specifically at the European Defence Fund (EDF), this article views this transition as evidence of a ‘geoeconomic turn’ in European defence market policy that is a response to structural challenges related to technology control, security of supply and geopolitical competition. Employing relative gains theory and liberal intergovernmentalism, this article charts the transition from market liberalisation to industrial policy in EU defence market initiatives based on specific intra‐ and extra‐political dynamics.

Cambodia’s foreign policy (re)alignments amid great power geopolitical competition

In recent decades, Cambodia has gained geopolitical significance in the competition among great powers in the Indo-Pacific—China, Japan, and the United States—forcing Cambodia to align and realign its relations with these powers. Comprehensive, comparative, systemic analyses of Cambodia’s relations with these three great powers remain limited. This is despite the shifting geopolitical context associated with China’s rise, the United States’ changing international liberal agenda, and Cambodia’s domestic political development. Utilizing various qualitative methods that include data from news reports in Khmer, English, and Chinese and interviews with diverse stakeholders—scholars, journalists, leaders of civil society organizations, representatives of multilateral institutions, and diplomats—this article seeks to fill this gap by providing an up-to-date, empirically rich, and theoretically grounded analysis of Cambodia’s relations with these three great powers. This study will delineate economic, security, and domestic causes of change and continuity within an integrated analytical lens that combines international relations and comparative politics to provide a multi-level (state and systemic) and multi-actor (state and non-state) analysis.

The Establishment and Dissolution of the Subbotnik Communities of Petrovka as a Case Study Reflecting Shifts in Russian Geopolitical Interests toward Raskol’nik Religious Settlements in Southern Caucasus, 1909–1915

Toward the middle of the nineteenth century, a large Subbotnik community established itself in the village of Privol’noe in the Lankaran district of Baku province in Southern Caucasus. By early 1909, however, the names of two small Subbotnik communities—both in the settlement of Petrovka, near Privol’noe—began to appear in the documents of the Baku province administration. While the Privol’noe community has been thoroughly studied, those of Petrovka remain largely unexplored. At their peak, Petrovka’s two Subbotnik communities were divided, belonging to different Jewish streams, and segregated from each other. Based mainly on documents from the National Historical Archives of the Republic of Azerbaijan (NAHARA), this study uncovers these communities and compares their religious life with each other. It does so in the context of the Russo-Ottoman and Irano-Russian geopolitical rivalries in Southern Caucasus. The study explains how and which aspects of this struggle led Russia to originally establish communities like Petrovka at the start of the examined period. It further explores why Russia later lost interest in supporting the Petrovka communities by the end of said period.

Red Capitalism and Neoliberal Authoritarianism

Abstract The rise of the brics block has contributed to the emergence of a “multiplex world”. This shift in power dynamics has revealed the crisis of the existing liberal international order, a relative decline in the U.S. power, and a gradual transition towards a post-American order. This article examines the dynamics of Sino-mena relations in a “multiplex world” where both the U.S. and the mena states have chosen “The Look East” policy. The U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry explains a shift in the U.S. foreign policy from the Middle East toward the Far East. The Middle East’s “Look East Policy”, however, is largely due to the needs for an alternative global partner. This article examines three pillars of the Sino-mena relations: the first pillar pertains to a broad category of energy, trade, investment, arms deal, security and geostrategic significance. The second pillar is centred around the Chinese policy of no military intervention and respecting the state sovereignty. The third pillar is pertinent to the “Chinese Model of Development” and what it means for the mena. It examines whether such relations might consolidate autocratic capitalism and neoliberalism without democracy and, or benefit mena civil societies’ quest for a grassroots and egalitarian development and democracy.

The Politics of STEMM Collaboration between Australia and China: National Security, Geopolitics, and Academic Freedom

ABSTRACT Since the 1990s, there has been a proliferation in science, technology, engineering, maths, and medical (STEMM) collaboration between Australian and Chinese universities and academics, which has produced divisions over the scientific, economic, human rights, and national security implications. Drawing on interviews with 22 academic researchers and the works of public commentators, I devise a typology of perceptions on STEMM collaboration: Pragmatic, Cosmopolitan, CCP-critic, and Leftist. Pragmatic and Cosmopolitan perceptions, which promote deep China engagement, are the most influential over the Australian government and university leadership strategy due to the economic and scientific opportunities that China presents, but CCP-critics, who highlight the national security and human rights risks involved, have growing influence over how the government and universities perceive and manage the relationship. The interviews also reveal that academic freedom means the freedom to pursue research without external influence. Shaped by individual experiences and assumptions regarding China, academics differ over what academic freedom should protect to maximise the benefits of STEMM collaboration while minimising risks. Overall, my findings suggest that geopolitical competition and perceptions of the risks and opportunities of China engagement shape STEMM collaboration and the freedom of academics.

FORESIGHT AS A TOOL FOR RESPONSIBLE PUBLIC MANAGEMENT AND ADJUSTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY IN THE FOCUS OF GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS

The purpose of the article is to study strategic long-term planning tools that allow timely identification of the latest risks, challenges and threats to international economic development that make it difficult to solve global problems that are a consequence of failures in the coordination of international economic policy. It has been determined that strategic forecasting allows politicians to increase the efficiency of government decision-making by identifying opportunities and threats that may arise in the coming years and decades, and also involves the development of possible strategies to counter them by taking into account the characteristics of the identified trends. The phenomenon of the new economy is characterized. The influence of technological development on the asymmetry of international economic development is determined. It has been established that the problems of international economic development in foresight strategizing include geopolitical rivalry, resource confrontation, energy dependence, deglobalization, disintegration processes, trade fragmentation, gaps in value and supply chains, reinstitutionalization of the system of international economic relations, recession, population aging, unemployment. Foresight forecasting tools that are not aimed at predicting a single “correct future” include: analysis of long-term trends and uncertainties; horizon scanning); scenario planning; shaping a normative future; political games; futures wheels; causal multilevel analysis. Research into long-term trends and uncertainties reveals key factors in different possible futures. The comprehensive observation carried out allows us to identify risks for the macroeconomic environment and proactively formulate a pool of measures to minimize the destructive impact of instability on socio-economic development. Improving foresight research as a critical element of strategic forecasting for solving problems of long-term development affects both theoretical aspects (conceptual approach, conceptual apparatus) and applied aspects (technologies and methods of development) of the development and use of this tool. Strategic planning allows you to develop adequate tools to achieve goals and proactively respond to the challenges of modern development, minimizing costs and compensating for the losses that arise for this reason, which lead to the loss of existing competitive advantages. The difference between forecasts and foresights is noted: forecasts are usually associated with uncontrollable events, while foresights most often deal with events and processes that are clearly controllable, therefore they assess the probability of not only one or another outcome of future events, but also the adoption of certain strategic and management decisions. The ability to distinguish normative approaches (what we want) from pragmatic approaches (what we should) is an important component of thinking in terms of alternative futures

Урановые проекты в странах Центральной Азии: перспективы и сложности реализации

The article analyzes the issues of possible construction of nuclear power plants, to which the political elite of most Central Asian countries has recently shown deep interest. The worsening problem of power shortages in the region necessitates the search for alternative power-generating capacities. Emphasis is placed on the ura-nium potential of Central Asian countries, which allows them not only to use it as a resource for the creation of new energy facilities based on new technologies, but also turns these countries into an object of global geopo-litical competition. In the future, the interest of Central Asian countries in the implementation of uranium pro-jects will only increase due to socio-economic factors, such as the need to ensure energy security as a strategic basis for sustainable economic development and meeting the needs of the population in electricity. It is con-cluded that both internal (environmental threats, political instability) and external (geopolitical rivalry) factors will slow down the implementation of uranium projects.

Why China supports NDB membership expansion: Going multilateral amid power struggles

AbstractThis article aims to detail why China supports the expansion of the NDB membership, arguing that NDB membership expansion is a medium‐term solution to help manage geopolitical rivalry and tensions between state powers in the NDB. The BRICS equality and consensus‐oriented governance arrangements are unique governance features of the NDB, however, Chinese officials have observed that these organizational structures have become the conduits for geopolitical tensions to be transmitted into the functioning of the Bank, specifically as the India‐China tensions, and the growing conflict between Russia and the West. China's strategy is that the addition of more members to the NDB will help to dilute the inter‐state tensions by expanding and diversifying the number of voices at the decision‐making table, as well as the capital contribution base for the Bank, and the scope of potential borrowers. China is pursuing an “increase in multilateralism” to help with managing the inter‐state rivalries that have been transmitted into the Bank, a medium‐term strategy for reducing conflict between the BRICS governments within the NDB, and for maintaining the collective cohesion of the BRICS as a diplomatic grouping.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Geopolitical Implications

This study examined the geopolitical implications of the GERD project in light of the ‗framework of benefit-sharing‘. The study adopted a qualitative research approach in which data were gathered from multiple sources, such as key informant interviews, books, journal articles, policy briefs, commentary, and opinions; and documents such as declarations, agreements, letters, and statements, water policies, government communications, reports, and media sources. In light of this, the paper argues that GERD foreshadows a new emergent order based on principles of benefit-sharing capable of replacing the existing inequitable water-sharing regime. The GERD has the potential to create cooperation between the riparian countries because of its proven benefits to the region. The potential cost of non-cooperation may also push Egypt towards opting for cooperation. Furthermore, the GERD could shift the power dynamics by positioning Ethiopia as a regional anchor state, which could further enhance prospects for cooperation. The study also highlights that the conflict over the GERD extends beyond the physicality of the dam and is deeply rooted in the geopolitical rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt. Egypt perceives the GERD as an existential threat to its existing water-sharing regime while Ethiopia regards it as a benefit-sharing project and an existential necessity. However, the study highlights the possibility that the GERD may transform the geopolitical rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt from a water-based conflict into a power trade competition, implying that cooperation and conflict, competition and cooperation, may coexist in this complex geopolitical landscape. The study implies that understanding the geopolitical implications of the GERD is crucial for navigating the complexities of the issue and finding sustainable solutions. Keywords: Geopolitics, GERD, Benefit-sharing, Water-sharing, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nile

Critical geopolitics in the era of identitarian populism

The transformation of the current world paradigm is generating new, strong stimuli for geopolitical knowledge. The sharpened geopolitical competition grows from colorful mix of postmodern instruments, modern motivation, premodern and hybrid methods, clearly territorialized and deterritorialized threats, state-centric and diffusion processes. Identitarian populism, which restores the boundaries that have been pushed out of the political space by integration and globalization, is getting in the forefront of geopolitical discourse. In international relations, the clash of identities, their instrumentalization and revival of imperial dreams extend the area of critical geopolitics, which has instruments for exploring geographic permanence of power as well as identity discourse, and whose cognitive apparatus is therefore an attractive analysis tool. The article contributes to a debate about options for greater usability of sub-discipline in the new context, proposes arguments for depoliticization of critical geopolitics in the right-left plane, discusses possibilities for complementary, synthetic deployment of neoclassical and critical geopolitics in exploring new context and argues in favour of even closer cooperation with the international relations theory.

Populist political masculinities, gender equality, and norm contestation in Armenia and Georgia

ABSTRACT Over the past two decades, the literature on norm diffusion in the post-Soviet space has grown dramatically. Increasingly, scholars have stressed the role of geopolitical competition between powerful international actors, notably Russia and the European Union (EU), in achieving and/or resisting liberal-democratic reform in the region. This article contributes to this recent research by adding a corrective to the literature, exploring the agency of local rather than external actors in the contestation of global gender equality norms through the high-value cases of Armenia and Georgia. By uncovering taken-for-granted gendered power dimensions in local norm contestation – a subject barely addressed in the norm diffusion literature – the article offers an explanation for the persistence of non-democratic trends in the post-Soviet space as a whole. Specifically, the article examines populist political masculinities contesting EU gender equality policies and related norms concerning violence against women and lesbian, gay, bisexual, and trans (LGBT) rights, arguing that in Armenia and Georgia, it is local populist actors, using taken-for-granted patriarchal and heterosexual discourses to reclaim local masculinities and their political legitimacy, who represent a major challenge to gender equality norms.

Managing the Geopolitical Competition between China and India: Sri Lanka’s Strategic Balancing Act

The competition between India and China has intensified with the changes in the strategic landscape of the Asia-Pacific region. Both countries with their growing economies, trade, military capabilities and global interdependence seek to control the Indian Ocean. China is investing heavily in strategic projects in IOR nations under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Maritime Silk Road (MSR) initiatives. India is also strengthening its engagements and cooperation with its neighbours, resulting in intense competition between the two powers. Sri Lanka, being a small island state, maintains relationships with both the countries despite the challenges. This article highlights that how Sri Lanka is maintaining balance amongst the on-going strategic competition between China and India. The theoretical framework of this article is based on the Role Theory which explains that how Sri Lanka is trying to avoid being trapped in this competition and maximise its economic and diplomatic leverage by balancing its policies between China and India.

Strained Relations in the High North: Steps-to-War Analysis of Conflict Potential in the Arctic

Following the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia, tensions have heightened in the international relations and security environment, including the Arctic region. We are witnessing renewed geopolitical rivalry and military tensions between the Arctic states. In this article, a steps-to-war model of conflict escalation is used to calculate whether the conflict potential in the Arctic is rising. While our results confirm an increase in confrontational behaviour according to militarisation and coalition-building markers, the rivalry marker shows a rise in cooperative behaviour. Hence, in our model, the preconditions signalling an increased likelihood of international armed conflict are not fulfilled.

Islamism in Pakistan and the Kashmir Conflict

The conflict in Kashmir is influenced by various interactive factors among which the Islamization of Pakistan and the following Talibanization of the entire Sub-Indian region undoubtedly have played a significant role. The emergence of the dispute is a consequence of the decolonisation process which peaked after the Second World War. Unfortunately, this same period was also marked by the beginning of the Cold War. Hence, it is argued that the Islamization of Pakistan is the product of the negative interaction of two main factors – the geopolitical rivalry of the superpowers at that time, especially considering the negative impact of the war in Afghanistan, and the rise of Islam as a consequence of the overall religious revival around the world. Adding to them is the local rivalry between the newly emerged states of India and Pakistan producing an extremely explosive mixture with the potential to ignite the entire region of South-East Asia, involving also the leading international powers. Thus, the conflict in Kashmir became an integral part of the post-Cold War world directly affected by the Islamic revival and the dissemination of the Islamist principles in Pakistan.