Geopolitical Processes Research Articles

Theoretical foundations of Russian imperialism as a danger to the constitutional order of Ukraine and world order

Purpose. The article analyzes the causes, preconditions, geopolitical and geohistorical goals of Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The reaction of the West to the Russian geostrategy of revenge has been clarified. It has been proven that the hybrid war which has been going on since February 2014 has created a deep crisis in the global security system. The Russian Federation, having violated the norms and principles of international law, bilateral and large-scale agreements, annexed the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol. Methodology.The methodological basis of the article is a set of philosophical and scientific principles, approaches, and special scientific methods of understanding international legal phenomena and geopolitical processes taking place in the world. The use of these methods provided an opportunity to solve the tasks and the main task is to prove that Russia threatens international law. On this basis, a fundamental conclusion was drawn that Putin's Russia must disintegrate as an empire in order to restore world law and order. Results: Russia attacked Ukraine without declaring war and again called into question the international order in Europe on February 24, 2022, when the Russian leader announced the launch of a "special military operation" against Ukraine. He called its goal the "demilitarization" of the country. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation began shelling the cities of Ukraine and its military and civilian infrastructure. The recognition of the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics by Russian President Vladimir Putin preceded this madness on February 21, 2022. However, the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation has deep historical roots. The absorption of Ukraine and its human resources is one of the key tasks in the development of the project of Russian imperialism. The current process of formation and development of Putin's Russia has always been accompanied by war with Ukraine. Russia aimed to destroy our young state. The history of relations between the Ukrainian and Russian peoples is a chronicle of wars, the liberation struggles of Ukrainians, and a consistent policy of Russification and assimilation of our people.

Scaling patterns of human diseases and population size in Colombia

Colombia has had one of the largest numbers of internally displaced populations in the world and in 2016 entered a period of post-conflict. These socio-ecological and geopolitical processes and trends have increased the migration of people towards cities and accordingly are affecting the distribution and occurrence of tropical diseases in its urban and peri-urban areas. Studies have suggested that anthropogenic phenomena such as urbanization scale according to the size of human populations regardless of cultural context. But, other studies show that health epidemics such as malarial and human immunodeficiency virus infections, follow a scale-free distribution in terms of urban population size and density. Here, we explore these relationships and dynamics in a tropical context using statistical analyses and available geospatial data to identify the scale relationships between urban growth processes and disease transmission in Colombia. Our results show that the dynamics of rural populations and certain diseases were characterized by power-laws that are indeed observed in urbanization studies. However, as opposed to these other studies, we found that malaria presented a higher intensity of infection in human settlements with less than 50,000 individuals and in particular for ethnic, indigenous populations. Results indicate that disease and urbanization relationships in Colombia do indeed follow scales; findings that differ from previous epidemiological studies such as those for malarial infection. Additionally, we identified trends showing that malarial infections become endemic in peri-urban areas. This approach using few, but robust and readily available, data is key for managing public health issues and understanding the spatial distribution of environmental impacts in the urbanizing tropics.

The social unconscious: Then and now

AbstractThis is a brief introductory paper about the history and centrality of the social unconscious in psychoanalytic theory and practice. The term―Social Unconscious―was introduced into our literature more than 100 years ago by the first formally trained American psychoanalyst―Trigant Burrow. It opens new pathways for understanding the social and collective dimensions of the unconscious, allowing us to extend our reach with our patients and our relevance with fellow citizens. Despite its potential, the social unconscious and the theories that undergird it were denigrated by Freud. In the early 1930’s, Freud instructed the American Psychoanalytic Association to remove Trigant Burrow from its membership and to excise this scholarship from its curricula. Coordinated attempts to suppress these ideas harmed the field’s development and retarded its relevance. Understanding the social dimensions of the unconscious is necessary because the unconscious is largely structured by social, cultural and collective coordinates. Fortunately, the turn into the 21st century is seeing a proliferation in analytic scholarship regarding the centrality of the socio‐cultural in structuring the unconscious of individuals and groups. New terms are being introduced such as vinculo, normative unconscious, interpellation, semiotic code, and ego‐habitus that aim to elaborate the various ways culture, ideology, large‐groups, and geopolitical processes shape the unconscious. Their potential to deepen our contact with patients across the spectrum of human difference is immense. I suggest using the capacious term―social unconscious―as a core conceptual category that organizes this vein of expanding analytic scholarship.

LINGUISTIC CONSCIOUSNESS AND HISTORICITY. GHEVOND ALISHAN՚S COMPOSITION “UNDER THE FIR TREE: REFLECTIONS IN THE BOSOM OF DESERTED NATURE”

The present article aims at studying the problems of historicity, linguistic consciousness, and philosophy of life as a constantly transforming chain that includes and circulates geopolitical and cultural processes. The primary aim of the study is to observe the author – world relations in the domain of language, consciousness and historicity, through which the essential inner features of the author's meditations and philosophical thoughts are revealed, and historicity becomes a tool for regulating experience. Linguistic consciousness presupposes an open image of the world, in which geopolitical events, actions, and situations are summarized. Historicity, as a process of restoring information flows, is full of events and ensures the time and vitality of the geopolitical processes. At the same time, as a regulating depository of language+consciousness, it provides the ability of identifying the attitude towards most important historical events in Alishan's experience. I have applied the phenomenological and historical-comparative methods focusing on semantic-typological procedures, the methodology of understanding. Father Ghevond Alishan's composition “Under the Fir Tree: Reflections in The Bosom of Deserted Nature” which is a unique combination of world historiography, Christianity, and historical-philosophical thought, has so far not received all the attention it deserves.

The concept of agroecosystems as a theoretical basis of ecologically tolerant nature management

Purpose. The main goal of the authors was to prove the suitability of the concept of noosphere ecosystems to interpret not only ecological phenomena and processes, but also phenomena of socio-natural content, and, subsequently, possibly geopolitical processes, in particular, spatial expansion of certain ethnic groups. Methods. In the course of our research a set of methodological approaches and scientific methods was used. The set of methods includes: empirical, which was implemented in the sequential implementation of the following operations: observation, modeling, forecasting; comparative – was implemented while comparing the main functions of natural and agroecosystems. Results. The formation of agricultural areas is the second stage in the transformation of natural ecosystems into agroecosystems. The main assumption of our work is the possibility of the existence of an agricultural system that has a dual character of borders. Our assumption was tested on the territory of Kharkiv region – one of the most developed agricultural territories of Ukraine. Based on the assumption that soil is both a condition and a result of human agricultural activity, as well as the fact that it connects natural and economic boundaries of agroecosystems in space-time, we calculated the balance of matter in the soil and coefficient of ecological danger. Mapping the values ​​of the coefficient of ecological danger showed that out of 429 farms in the region, only 7 farms have values ​​of the coefficient more than 1. This means that under the conditions of intensive agriculture there is a constant shortage of matter and energy, which leads to a negative balance of humus in the soil. According to the author's concept, one of the main causes of environmental problems lies in the different rates of development of nature and society. Conclusions. The “memory” of the former structurally and informationally unchanging biosphere is embedded in agroecosystems. According to modern notions of rhizome, such a memory is soil. Such “memory” at the level of agroecosystems provides self-regulation of the “human ecosystem” through both direct regulation of the human population (disease, war) and indirect impact on planetary spatial structures. In particular, due to the preservation of certain proportions between the territories with “naturalized” and “commodity” economy.

Институционально-правовая парадигма как основа построения цивилизованного геополитического пространства

The main topic of the current issue of the journal “Legal Concept” = “Pravovaya paradigma” – “The modern state in the paradigm of law: geopolitical and jurisdictional staples” deals with the study of the significance of such a category as a legal paradigm for the scientific world and the building of civilized international relations, taking into account the current state of the geopolitical space, as well as their interdependence and mutual influence. It is argued that confidence-building and the stability of international relations will be promoted not by deterrence or confrontation, but by effective global governance, which is only possible through the institutional building. It is argued that civilized international relations should be built following the principles and norms of law, which determines the importance of the institutional and legal paradigm. According to the author, the concept of “institution” is a key element in building the geopolitical space, and law is one of the most important institutions of the geopolitical paradigm, representing the most important mandatory regulator of human activity, determining for all subjects of the jurisdiction to which they belong the full functionality of their material and immaterial existence and organizing their time and space. The specific jurisdictional staples of geopolitics and legal paradigms from different branches of law are investigated. The logic of the editorial board of the journal is substantiated in the construction of the heading “The main topic of the issue”, which opens with a paper on the study of the influence of geopolitical factors on the state and legal organization of countries and peoples. The stages of the development of geopolitics are determined. It is argued that scientific and technological progress has put an end to the previous classical period of geopolitics, and the main key factor of modern geopolitics is the socio-economic factor that determines the possibilities of the economy in improving the standard of living of the population. It is revealed that the influence of individual states on the geopolitical process is measured by modern geopolitics, taking into account the state of the economy, the prosperity of society, and the stability of the political system. That is why, according to the author, the modernization of the legal system of modern Russia is impossible without taking into account geopolitical factors, since its state plays a decisive role in world geopolitics along with geographical location, climate, soil, and other natural conditions, population density, etc. The level of development of the security infrastructure of the state is determined not only by socio-economic factors but also by legal ones. It is proved that the process of increasing the level of economic security is a continuous process, which means that improving the geopolitical situation of Russia is a permanent matter that requires ensuring sustainable economic growth, carrying out some organizational and economic measures and creating an adaptive legal infrastructure for their implementation.

CAUSES OF RUSSIA'S INVASION OF UKRAINE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE WORLD ORDER

The main focus of the world community is the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Of course, this is not in vain. After World War 2, there was no military intervention in the territory of a democratic state by another state. After the founding of the United Nations in 1945, the new world order was on the verge of change. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been sharply criticized by Western countries, the United States and NATO, who have imposed a package of economic sanction on Russia to curb its aggression. This could put the Russia economy on the brink. Why did Russia invade Ukraine, ignoring sanctions that could hurt its economy? The article analyzes the root causes of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict and the major geopolitical processes that can lead to it.

Interaction between the Arctic and Non-Arctic States in Scientific Research and Practical Development of the Geopolitical Potential of the Arctic

Aim. Reveal the methodological role of ideas about the geopolitical potential of the state in making managerial decisions in the development of the space of the Russian Arctic. The article presents an overview of fundamental research and articles by foreign authors that addresses the problem of realizing the geopolitical potential of the Arctic.Tasks. Development of the principles of geopolitical forecasting based on mathematical modeling of the geopolitical potential of the state and systematization of developments on the spatial development of the Russian Arctic as part of Greater Eurasia.Methods. Mathematical modeling of geopolitical processes, medium-term forecasting of the spatial development of the Russian Arctic in the face of challenges from foreign states claiming its natural resources and territorial waters.Results. It confirms the need to include scientific developments in the methodological apparatus of geopolitical research to identify qualitative and quantitative definitions of the geopolitical potential of the state, which contributes to ensuring the national security of Russia and improving its spatial development.Conclusions. The transition to the sixth technological mode is not limited to a radical transformation of the country’s production complex, but also implies the need to create a unified infrastructure architecture for the Greater Eurasia (“smart” Eurasia), into which the Russian Arctic organically fits.

Yelizavetpol Province in the System of Territorial Administration of the Russian Empire in the South Caucasus (Nineteenth Century)

The article analyzes the place and role of Yelizavetpol province in the administrative-territorial changes carried out by the tsarist regime in the region after the Russian occupation of the South Caucasus.
 Currently, very complex geopolitical processes are taking place in the South Caucasus region. The main reasons for the processes taking place in this region, which is one of the most conflict zones in the world, are directly related to the situation in the region in the XIX century, after the conquest of the South Caucasus by the Russian Empire. From this point of view, it is important to study the administrative and political changes carried out by the tsarism in the South Caucasus at that time. The historical roots of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which lasted for 30 years and eventually resulted in the restoration of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, go back to the colonial policy pursued by tsarism in the region at that time. The historical Karabakh region of Azerbaijan was administratively part of the Yelizavetpol (Ganja) province. In this regard, the changes that have taken place in the province have had a significant impact on the future of the region as a whole.
 After the occupation of the South Caucasus in the early 19th century, tsarism carried out a series of changes in the territorial structure and administrative management of the region in order to take over the region and incorporate it into a single Russian administrative-territorial and economic system. In order to strengthen administrative-police control in the South Caucasus, including Azerbaijan, the tsarist government implemented several reforms in the 60s and 70s of the 12th century, among which administrative-territorial reforms played an important role. The decree of December 9, 1867 "On changing the governance of the Caucasus and Transcaucasian region", approved by Alexander I, formed the legal basis for these reforms. By this decree, a new province was established in the administrative system of the South Caucasus − Yelizavetpol province.

Постсоветское пространство в контексте отношений Россия–Запад: проблемы и перспективы

This article analyses the problems of the рost-Soviet space as the most important factors affecting both Russia–West (US–Russia in the first place) relations and global geopolitical processes. The development of the approaches of Russia and the West to the former Soviet republics during the 1990s and 2020s is analysed. The evolution of Russia’s foreign policy in the post-Soviet space is demonstrated: from uncertainty during the 1990s to a tough, forceful defence of the country’s geopolitical interests in the region in the 2000s – 2020s. Further, key stages of Russia’s foreign policy are considered: the foundation of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and Eurasian Economic Union, the Russo-Georgian War of 2008, and the accession of Crimea to Russia in 2014. In addition, the main concepts and projects of the West are analysed here, i.e. Z. Brzeziński’s concept of geopolitical pluralism, A. Lake’s democratic enlargement, the Eastern Partnership project, and NATO’s eastward expansion. Moreover, the paper demonstrates the gradual deterioration of Russia–West relations in the post-Soviet space, the latter being transformed into a region of relentless rivalry between the two parties. The author concludes that relations between Russia and the West in the post-Soviet space have practically reached a dead end. Both Russia and the West have adopted a position of deliberate denial and condemnation of steps taken by the opposing side. In conclusion, the author attempts to forecast the development of the situation in the post-Soviet space and suggests ways to solve the existing problems.

Применение проектных и процессных подходов на примере крупнейших банков Российской Федерации

The article contains materials on the periodization of the application and development of project and process management in the banking sector of the Russian Federation in 2008–2021. Based on modern ideas about the economic (financial) crisis as a factor in stimulating innovation, including the banking sector, the author examines the consequences of the 2008–2009 and 2014–2015 crises and the corona crisis 2020-2021 as one of the answers to them - the introduction of project and process approaches by banks to improve banking processes. The author reveals the impact of the crisis (2008–2009) on the development and implementation by the largest banks of innovative technologies based on lean manufacturing approaches (Lean), the creation of their own production systems, as well as brief conclusions on the results of the application of lean management. The impact of the crisis of 2014–2015 is considered to stimulate innovation of commercial banks using the innovative Agile project approach, an innovative process approach based on the BPM (Business Process Management) model and other similar models. Process management and time-to-market reduction using the Agile approach are of particular relevance in the context of declining margins of the banking business and/or focusing on the best customer experience of leading Russian banks. Particular attention is paid to the innovations of 2020–2021, focused on the implementation of the ecosystem approach in the banking sector. The financial crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic (corona crisis) has greatly accelerated the social, economic and geopolitical processes taking place in the world, and it will be easier for those organizations that have wide product and service lines and create ecosystems that form a seamless customer experience. Project and process management discussed in the article are used in most of the largest Russian banks and their ecosystems at the present time.

Changes in the volume of air traffic and specialization of segments of the Moscow Aviation Hub from 2014 to 2021

The object of this study is the changes in the development of the Moscow aviation hub in the second decade of the XXI century. The subject of the study is a statistical analysis of changes in the volume of air transportation of passengers, cargo and mail at the Moscow Aviation Hub from 2014 to 2021, both in general and for individual airports in comparison. The change in the share of Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo and Vnukovo in the total volume of the listed types of air transportation is analyzed. The dynamics of the ratio of domestic and international air transportation is investigated. The share of the Moscow aviation hub in the total volume of passenger traffic, cargo turnover and postal air transportation in Russia is considered. The research is based on statistical, historical-geographical, problem-analytical methods, as well as the method of system-structural analysis. This made it possible to conduct an objective, scientifically-based analysis of the processes of changing the volume of air traffic in the Moscow aviation hub. The main conclusions of the study are: air transportation of passengers at the Moscow Aviation hub decreased from 2014 to 2021, while air transportation of cargo and mail increased during this period. The share of Sheremetyevo Airport in all respects increased, the share of Domodedovo decreased, the share of Vnukovo either grew or remained unchanged. The main contribution of the authors to the study of the topic is to consider changes in the statistical parameters of the Moscow aviation hub airports in the context of socio-economic and geopolitical processes, in historical and geographical conditionality; in identifying the key factors of the current dynamics. The novelty of the study is to identify the main trends in the development of the volume and structure of air transportation of the Moscow aviation hub from 2014 to 2021 under the conditions of sanctions pressure and restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of the Afghan Conflict on the Geopolitical Situation in Central Asia at the End of the 20th Century

The fall of the pro-Soviet regime of Najibullah led to a confrontation between armed groups and the division of the country into spheres of influence. Obviously, the uncontrolled conflict on the territory of Afghanistan aroused concern in the international community and directly threatened the security of neighboring states that have a common border with warring Afghanistan (Pakistan, Iran, China, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan). Considering the geopolitical situation that has developed in the Central Asian region and is directly related to ensuring the security of the borders of the sovereign states of Central Asia, political scientists do not have a common opinion about the role of Russia in this geopolitical process.

THE SHORT AND MEDIUMTERM IMPACT OF AL QA’IDA ISLAMIST’S ATTACKS ON THE U.S.A., SINCE SEPTEMBER 11, 2001

September 11, 2001, when Islamists affiliated with the terrorist organization Al Qaeda attacked iconic buildings in the United States, marked a turning point in recent human history. The impact of these attacks goes far beyond other contemporary events, which triggered major geopolitical processes, such as the 1956 Suez Crisis or the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. If initially humanity was in a state of shock, seeing how the superpower of the moment seems paralyzed by the aggression of a little-known enemy, later, security measures and geopolitical dynamics overturned not only the life of the Earth’s population until then, but also paradigms, strategic concepts, political behaviors. This article aims to analyze how the attack orchestrated by Salafist fanatics in Al Qaeda has transformed and continues to transform society and global geopolitical dynamics.

КОЛИЧЕСТВЕННЫЕ МЕТОДЫ В РОССИЙСКИХ ГЕОПОЛИТИЧЕСКИХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯХ

The issue of the article is to acquaint researchers with new methods of studying geopolitics on a strict quantitative scientifically grounded basis. The relevance of this topic is confirmed by the general growth of interest in geopolitical topics in scientific publications, but for the most part these publications are characterized by speculative argumentation and a superficial vision of geographic space. The review article intends to systematize modern theoretical knowledge about geopolitics, to present domestic methodological developments in this area. In the 1990 s, there was a search for conceptual schemes for a quantitative or qualitative analysis of geopolitical relations and acquaintance with foreign trends in geopolitics and methods of argumentation. Since the 2000 s in the latest methodology of geopolitics, 4 generalized directions are distinguished: geopolitics in geographical interpretation, which considers geopolitical processes through the prism of objective spatial data, and uses the geographic scientific base and theories of domestic economic and theoretical geography in the argument, the second is the geo-economic branch, which is based on the achievements of economic science in the mathematization of scientific knowledge, the third is critical geopolitics, which implies a quantitative and qualitative analysis of political discourse, geopolitical images and ideas about the place of a country (region) in the world, the fourth is geopolitical mathematical modeling. In general, the identified areas are not opposed to each other, but have pronounced accents and their own pool of studies, recognized as «classical», included in the foundation of scientific constructions, and there is also an interpenetration and unification of methods for quantitative analysis of geopolitical studies. The article is addressed in order to consolidate knowledge about geopolitics, to interpenetrate the developed methods in this area and stimulate interdisciplinary approaches.

Transnational corporations, national interests, and security of the country

The global political situation is evolving and changing, especially in conditions when the countries of Central Asia become attractive to foreign transnational cor-porations (TNCs). But there is a question regarding the necessity of attracting for-eign TNCs and endangering other countries, if there is an opportunity to develop national corporations, which in turn can enter the markets of other countries and influence such geopolitical processes in the world as economic restructuring, pace of development, transformation of the world economic hierarchy, and extension of integration processes. It is necessary to analyse these tendencies and form an appropriate domestic policy guided by the principles of sustainable development. In the context of globalisation, transnationalisation is determined by the activities of TNCs. The authors analysed the role and place of TNCs in the processes of globalisation, the formation of national interests and security of the country evi-dence from the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Central Asian Region (CAR). The main purpose of the study is to identify the challenges and threats posed by trans-national corporations on the development of the country's economy, to identify specific areas and spheres of influence of these forces on the foreign and domestic policies of sovereign states, primarily on the violation of national interests and sovereignty of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the CAR countries. Therefore, for Kazakhstan and the CAR countries, it is very important not only to determine the maximum possibilities for maintaining national sovereignty, but also to develop measures to prevent the weakening of the country's security from transnational corporations.

Non-violence as a philosophical problem

At present, the transformation of ethical, social, cultural, and geopolitical processes in our social reality at a new level requires from humanity a special qualitative formation of the level of consciousness. In this regard, we consider it appropriate to form detailed discourses about the constructor of the phenomenon of cruelty, its effectiveness. When it comes to the problem of non-violence, many do not believe in the viability of this phenomenon in today's reality. Since the issues of non-violence, worrying human consciousness since ancient times, have not found proper application in the course of practice. At present, humanity is increasingly facing the negative consequences of ignoring the doctrine of non-violence. The modern world is disintegrating on a substantial level, it is chaotic. Therefore, such ideological programs and actions as global contradictions, manipulation of public consciousness, terrorism, the threat of the use of nuclear weapons, religious and ethnic tensions, new movements and groups, doctrines of various persuasions and directions, require the study of the essence and meaning of non-violence in accordance with the trends of the time. In the global era, the rapid development of scientific and technical innovations, in addition to significant achievements in human life, creates new problems and prompts a new analysis of the fundamental question of the future of humanity. In recent times, new types and forms of abuse have appeared, and the fact that they cause great evil in an underground way makes it necessary to turn the idea of non-abuse into a life practice. In this article, a step is taken to differentiate thoughts about how the idea became a doctrine in the historical scene and the scope of its application today.

«ИРАНСКИЙ КВАДРАТ» ПРОТИВ «ТУРЕЦКОГО ТРЕУГОЛЬНИКА»

Aim . To study the specifics of the geopolitical project of Iran in its opposition to the geopolitical project of Turkey in the process of the struggle of these powers for leadership in the Greater Middle East region. Methodology . The main methods of research are systematic, comparative, and phenomenological methods of research. Results . Iran plays a significant role in the geopolitical process not only in the Greater Middle East region, but also in Eurasia and the world as a whole, relying on its own geopolitical project, the components of which are Shiism, Aryanism, energy resources and communications (the “Iranian square“). At the same time, Iran is immanently opposed to Turkey and its geopolitical project, the components of which are Sunni panIslamism, pan-Turkism and neo-Ottomanism (the “Turkish triangle“). Research implications . The results of the study contribute to the theory of geopolitics and are important for predicting the geopolitical behavior of the modern Turkey and Iran.

The sword of Damocles in global stability

The subject of this paper is the causes and consequences of the Ukrainian crisis. The armed conflict between the two Slavic peoples is a tragic epilogue of decades of processes in the relations between Russia and the United States. NATO's expansion to the east, despite the promises made, has permanently exacerbated the conflict between the two leading military powers. The aim of this research is to discover the essence and cause of the conflict that led to armed actions as well as the theoretical foundation of current geopolitical processes. The concepts of Western geopoliticians, contained in the works of Mackinder and Spikeman, offer an explanation of the ambitions and strategic goals of Anglo-Saxon geopolitics that have not changed since the 19th century. The basic hypothesis is that the long-term economic goals of the dominant geopolitical forces lie behind the Ukrainian crisis. The evolution of Ukraine's geopolitical position, which has been torn between East and West since independence, has been followed chronologically. The permanent deterioration of relations with Russia will eventually lead to an armed conflict. The consequences will be felt most by Ukraine but also by Russia, on which unprecedented sanctions have been imposed. However, there will also be consequences for the European Union, which is deprived of Russian energy and raw materials, world stability, and the overall world economy, which is significantly lowering growth rates. The solution to the deepest political, economic, and military crisis since the Second World War will be reached when the United States and Russia agree on it, with or without the participation of Ukraine.

ОНТОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ ОСНОВАНИЯ КЛАССИФИКАЦИИ ИСТОРИЧЕСКИХ ЦИКЛОВ

The author of the article considers the possibility of building a theory of cycles by referring to the method of ontological modeling, which goes back to the models of being that were popular in the cultures of the ancient world. Many of them have 8–10 elements, but there are also those with 30/32, 45 and 64 elements, etc. In modern methodology, a comparable volume of cycles takes place only in the concept of large economic cycles of Kondratiev lasting from 47 to 60 years. The object of analysis is the geopolitical processes of the 19th–21st centuries. The subject of analysis is the final stages of macrocycles of historical development. The purpose of this work is to establish the general patterns of development and self-organization in historical processes by means of humanitarian research. The lower limit of long cycles is interpreted in the present application with respect to the 45-element ontological model of the world order in the Indian Vastu Vidya. On this basis, a 90-year geopolitical cycle is formed, limiting the element of wars. The internal dynamics of the development of participants in geopolitical interactions is described within the framework of a 32-year cycle, correlated with the first half of the 64-element cycle of the Chinese "Book of Changes", which describes the cycle of cognitive activity. Going beyond this cycle by adding another 8 stages leads to a 72-year cycle of radical change in self-identification and political course. Based on the results of the study, the author concludes about the prospects of the method of ontological modeling for the analysis of historical processes and the determination of future development.