Geopolitical Instability Research Articles

Geopolitical Risks’ Spillovers Across Countries and on Commodity Markets: A Dynamic Analysis

We investigate the transmission of geopolitical risks between G7-BRICS countries and commodity futures prices. We find geopolitical instability after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In a context where the G7 countries geopolitically influence the BRICS and vice versa, the United States, Germany, India, and Russia emerge as the predominant sources of spillovers. The commodity futures prices most influenced by geopolitical risks are those relating to energy.

Building a theoretical framework for financial risk management in emerging markets: Applying global best practices to the oil and gas industry in developing economies

Financial risk management is crucial for the sustainability and growth of the oil and gas industry in developing economies, where volatility and regulatory uncertainties present significant challenges. This abstract explores the construction of a theoretical framework for financial risk management, adapting global best practices to the specific contexts of emerging markets within the oil and gas sector. In developing economies, the oil and gas industry faces unique risks such as geopolitical instability, currency fluctuations, and regulatory changes. Effective financial risk management mitigates these risks through proactive strategies that balance risk exposure with strategic objectives. Adopting global best practices involves the integration of comprehensive risk assessment methodologies, scenario planning, and hedging techniques tailored to local market conditions. Key components of the theoretical framework include risk identification through comprehensive analysis of market, operational, and financial factors. This approach enables oil and gas companies to anticipate and mitigate risks before they escalate, ensuring financial stability and resilience in volatile environments. Furthermore, the application of global best practices in financial risk management fosters transparency and accountability, enhancing investor confidence and facilitating access to capital. By aligning risk management strategies with international standards and benchmarks, developing economy oil and gas firms can navigate uncertainty more effectively, thereby optimizing operational performance and sustaining long-term growth. However, challenges such as limited access to sophisticated financial instruments and expertise may hinder effective implementation. Overcoming these barriers requires capacity building, collaboration with experienced partners, and continuous adaptation of strategies to evolving market dynamics. In conclusion, building a theoretical framework for financial risk management in the oil and gas industry in developing economies is essential for mitigating volatility and maximizing opportunities. By applying global best practices tailored to local contexts, companies can strengthen their resilience, attract investment, and drive sustainable development in emerging markets.

9.L. Round table: “What” and “How” for building competencies for effective policy making in and for public health

Abstract Policymakers operating within the field of public health must regularly draw on their skills or competencies to facilitate engagement in and between policy sectors and with the public, to navigate the larger landscape of public health institutions and governance levels across the policy cycle, to generate, understand, and apply evidence for decision making, as well as to negotiate the demands of diverse stakeholders. What exactly are the competencies needed and how can they be cultivated to enhance the collective capacity of policymaking institutions? The increasing strain placed on public health systems worldwide, owing specially to challenges in population ageing, the burden of non-communicable diseases, and the exigencies introduced by pandemics, environmental disasters, and geo-political instabilities push us to expand the scope of public health. A look to the policy environs and outcomes seen within and across countries demonstrates that the quality of policy is both highly variable and exceedingly subject to the quality of public health leadership itself. These developments shed light on the need for greater investment in the development of competencies needed by policymakers to engage in effective decision making on key issues impacting population health and the resilience of public health systems. This includes efforts to strengthen the abilities of policymakers to identify problems, recognize opportunities, and put forth solutions in line with robust data and evidence, principles of public health ethics, gaps and priorities in public health needs, and in accordance with financial and political realities. The proposed roundtable will examine the state-of-the-art on policymaking competencies in public health, and how to build them by examining the barriers and opportunities. The panel will convene leading experts in the field of public health research and practice to explore: 1) the conceptual definition of competencies for policymaking at different levels of governance and across the policy cycle; 2) the strengths and limits of competency frameworks and their utility in guiding assessment and training tools, as well as policy practice; 3) the challenges associated with developing, maintaining and transferring competencies in fast-changing, multi-level policy making environments; 4) the challenges for public health experts and institutions to be trusted advisors both by policy makers and other stakeholders and the population; and 5) the opportunities to harness the unexploited power of professional networks in some countries of Europe. Key messages • An enhanced research agenda and investment are needed for the development of competencies - individual and collective - for effective public health policy-making and stronger governance. • Innovative approaches to policy-making are needed, and this requires building competencies, including leadership, for addressing the complex nature of public health.

The Economy–Security Nexus: Risk, Strategic Autonomy and the Regulation of the Semiconductor Supply Chain

Abstract The EU’s policies in the field of technology broadly defined are increasingly marked by a concern over strategic autonomy, and Europe’s place in the world. Regulatory interventions are framed in terms of “digital sovereignty,” with the Commission seeking to ensure that external dependencies are reduced with the aim of increasing the EU’s resilience to geopolitical instability and external shocks. Using the case study of semiconductors, the chips that power modern electronic devices, this article explores how technology policy in the EU sits at the economy–security nexus, in which economic goals and security goals are interdependent and inseparable. Focusing on the life cycle of the semiconductor supply chain from the control over natural resources through to the cybersecurity requirements placed on the finished products, this article demonstrates the increasing security logic embedded within a burgeoning industrial technology policy.

Connected Food: First Steps for an Ambitious National Food Strategy

Background: The global food system faces growing pressure from population growth, climate change, wealth inequity, geo-political instability, and damage to the ecosystems on which our food supply depends. Fragmentation of the priorities and needs of food system stakeholders—citizens, food producers, food industries, governments—compounds the problem, with competing or misaligned interests increasing the risk of failure to adequately meet the needs of those that form, and are served, by the food system. Growing consensus on the need for transformative system level change to address the problems facing the food system is yet to be significantly reflected in strategic action. Methods: The national food strategy of the UK is offered as an exemplar to discuss the need to promote more coherent and ambitious visions of transformative change that acknowledge the complexity of the food system as a whole. We draw upon cross-sectoral experience to distil the needs, priorities, and key food system tensions that must be acknowledged to promote transformative systems change that equitably delivers healthy sustainable diets, contributes to a resilient global food system, and protects the environment. Results: Greater coherence, ambition, and consideration of the food system as a whole are needed if a UK national food strategy is to contribute to significant transformative change. Conclusions: To promote this, we advocate for (1) a food system digital twin to model and test potential food system interventions or legislation; (2) a citizens’ forum to inform and co-develop a cohesive national food strategy; and (3) increased cohesion and integration of food system governance within government to drive a coherent, ambitious national food strategy.

A two-stage stochastic programming model for comprehensive risk response action selection: A case study in Industry 4.0

Effective project risk management is critical in environments where both micro-level and macro-level risks are present. Traditional models often focus on micro-level risks, neglecting broader macroeconomic uncertainties such as geopolitical instability and supply chain disruptions. This research introduces a two-stage stochastic programming model designed to optimize the selection of Risk Response Actions (RRAs) under uncertainty while addressing both types of risk. The model incorporates “here-and-now” decisions at the planning stage and “wait-and-see” decisions as uncertainties unfold, enabling adaptive risk management throughout the project lifecycle. To solve the model efficiently, we employ an evolutionary algorithm combined with Sample Average Approximation (SAA) to handle the computational complexity of multiple scenarios. The model is applied to a real-world case study involving the integration of IoT and ERP systems in a smart factory in Iran, a project characterized by significant macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. Our key contribution lies in providing a comprehensive risk response strategy selection model that simultaneously addresses micro- and macro-level risks while incorporating strategic flexibility through outsourcing decisions. The results demonstrate that our model outperforms traditional deterministic models, offering enhanced resilience against macro-level risks and improved project performance under uncertainty. These findings provide valuable insights for project managers aiming to increase resilience and adaptability in volatile environments. By integrating both internal and external risk factors, our model offers a robust tool for managing complex projects, enhancing decision-making and project outcomes in uncertain conditions

Sicherheit als wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderung

Abstract This paper examines the evolving role of security as a key economic and political challenge, focusing on Germany’s response to geopolitical instability, particularly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It argues that security is now a central economic factor, influencing investment and market stability. Based on data on defense spending and fiscal policy, the article highlights inadequate earlier efforts to rebuild defense capacity, with rising fiscal pressures. The paper emphasises the need for reforms in Germany’s and Europe’s security strategies to address hybrid threats and financial burdens.

THE STATE AND PROSPECTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY IN UKRAINE IN THE CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES

The article examines the state and prospects of international tourism development in Ukraine amid global crises, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war. A comprehensive analysis of key factors affecting the tourism industry is conducted, including international travel restrictions, geopolitical instability, economic difficulties, and changes in consumer behavior. It demonstrates how global crises, such as COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukrainian war, have led to a significant reduction in international tourist flows, decreased foreign exchange earnings from tourism activities, and created additional risks for tourism infrastructure. In such conditions, the recovery of the industry and its integration into the country's economic development require a comprehensive approach that includes not only investments but also the digitalization of tourism services. The research highlights key changes in tourist flows, the level of economic activity in the sector, and the impact of internal and external challenges on tourism infrastructure. It was found that after a significant decline in 2022 due to the war, a gradual recovery began in 2023 thanks to the development of domestic tourism and the opening of new safe routes. Digitalization has become a key factor in the development of the modern tourism industry, affecting all stages of the tourist experience. The implementation of digital technologies, such as online booking, mobile applications, virtual and augmented reality, allows companies to enhance their service and improve competitiveness. The article emphasizes the importance of strengthening tourism infrastructure and supporting entrepreneurship in times of instability. Directions for further research are proposed, including the development of domestic tourism, the assessment of the resilience of tourism entities to crises, and the analysis of the long-term effects of the war on international tourist flows. The study underscores the significance of the tourism industry for Ukraine's economic recovery and its potential for integration into the global tourism market.

Дисфункции проектирования молодёжной политики в российских университетах (на примере участников программы «Приоритет 2030»)

The article analyzes the models of youth policy presented in the development programs of universities participating in the Priority 2030 Federal Project. The author considers the University as the most important institution for the socialization of Russian youth, especially in a situation of geopolitical instability. This stage of a young person's life is defined as a time of social experimentation, selfdiscovery, and the acquisition of important personal qualities and values that contribute to the expansion of solidarity in Russian society. In this regard, the systemic youth policy of the university is becoming a key factor in the social integration of the younger generation. Based on the structural analysis of the program texts, the article draws conclusions about the existence of a number of dysfunctional patterns that significantly reduce the effectiveness of university youth policy. The most significant of them are the insufficient level of goal setting, the lack of measurable performance criteria, descriptive nature, weak correlation with national objectives and priorities. The article concludes that it is necessary to change the university's youth policy and adapt it to the peculiarities of the geopolitical situation in which Russia finds itself.

Управление основными производственными средствами предприятия в условиях изменчивой внешней среды

The study of strategies for managing the main production facilities of an enterprise in conditions of geopolitical instability and the introduction of mutual sanctions is an urgent topic, since effective management of production resources of organizations of any type of activity is critical for their successful functioning. Geopolitical factors and sanctions can seriously affect the availability and cost of production facilities, as well as their operating conditions, which requires the development of adequate management strategies to ensure the sustainability of production processes and minimize negative consequences. In this regard, the strategies formulated in the article for managing the main production facilities of the enterprise are of significant scientific interest and practical importance for the business community.

Military rations: Nutritional, sensorial and technological quality and their effects on military physical exercise in extreme environments.

In recent years, many countries have significantly increased military spending, mainly due to geopolitical instability in several regions and the potential risk of armed conflicts spreading worldwide. In this context, understanding the nutritional needs of soldiers in different climates (warm, cold and high altitude) is important and directly impacts the performance and health of soldiers, especially in extreme environments. The amount of liquids, calories, and macro- and micronutrients contained in military rations must be determined considering the type of exercise, duration and environment. Military rations, in addition to being nutritionally adequate, must be practical, sustainable and easy to consume at any temperature and situation. Given these considerations, this study aimed to review scientific knowledge regarding the convenience, sensory attributes and nutritional components of military rations. Furthermore, this review studied the factors influencing soldiers' appetite, gut microbiota and nutritional needs during training or combat in extreme environments (warm, cold and high altitude). This exploration further advances our understanding of contemporary nutritional strategies for military personnel, contributing to future research and highlighting areas that must be developed.

DEVELOPMENT OF THE GLOBAL AIR TRANSPORTATION MARKET IN CONDITIONS OF TURBULENCE

The purpose of the article is to develop and substantiate the strategic priorities of international cooperation of air transport enterprises of Ukraine in war and post-war times based on the study of turbulence factors affecting the activity of the global air transport market, as well as the analysis of the strategic development of the world's largest airlines in crisis conditions. The methodological basis of the research is scientific theories of economic cycles and crises, theories of market equilibrium, theories of market structures, theories of cooperation and integration. Both general scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge were used – historical-logical, descriptive-analytical, analysis and synthesis, methods of quantitative and qualitative comparisons. The informational basis of the article is monographic studies and periodical publications of Ukrainian and foreign economists, analytical reports of international aviation organizations, international consulting companies and analytical centres. The article examines the essence, structure and modern trends in the development of the global air transport market. Turbulence factors affecting the dynamics of air transport are identified and justified, including geopolitical instability, economic downturns, rising fuel prices, pandemics, technological innovations etc. The impact of crises on international air transportation was assessed, and the peculiarities of the regulation of the world air market were considered. The role of global strategic alliances in the formation of the world market of air transportation is determined, it is established that international cooperation of air transport enterprises allows to increase the market share. The results of the research made it possible to justify the strategic priorities of international cooperation of air transport enterprises of Ukraine in war and post-war times. Research results can be used for scientific justification and further creation of proper conditions for the effective functioning of the global air transport market, as well as in the development of new strategies for air transport enterprises of Ukraine, which will allow them to remain stable and competitive in conditions of uncertainty and growing threats.

Flags, Verdicts and Texts: Dissident Narratives and Literary Mandates for Re-Writing Empire

Researchers theorising the intersection and intertextuality between literature and law have explored and analysed democracy, governance, and trust from diverse analytical approaches. Political and legal structures are undergoing polycrises and governance is assailed by wicked policy problems, while democratic norms and legitimacy are eroded. Trust—in all its elasticity—is increasingly polarised among groups and linked to ethnic, cultural, and place-based identities and resentments. Past and present experiences in the lace of memory show that racial categories have persisted into the postcolonial chronos, and we need to question what this means for the rhizome of democracy. New ideas and identities challenge how democracy can represent diverse groups and interests, emphasising the nourishing and symbiotic relationships between literature and law within the context of decolonising notions of global-glocal knowledge economies. Governance and legal architecture are held hostage by powerful interest groups, and axiomatic aspirations to kairos and trust in the fair distribution of wealth and resources for the institutionalisation of democracy have been enfeebled. New forms of democratic participation are emerging which challenge the concepts and premises of choice and plurality. Repeated pressures to understand major crises such as criminal and gendered violence where geopolitical instabilities weaken trust in the capacity of democratic processes have not provided acceptable and socially just verdicts. If external pressures on democratic institutions are growing, criticisms against forms of poor governance (e.g., corruption, presidential personalisation of the state, short-termism, polarisation) are also increasingly made against legal and political institutions. New expressions of distrust in flags and resistance against legal, cultural, and economic powers are immanent in literary texts. This article uses Native Son, Mating Birds, and The Trial of Dedan Kimathi to address the following question: What are the pre-requisites and co-requisites for democracy and socially just governance to flourish in legal and literary situations of heightened economic marginalisation, extreme cultural oppressions, and diminishing political legitimacy? The nexus and intersectionality between legal and literary textual structures allow for an analysis of the role and impact of social, cultural, political, and juridical reformulations in the three selected texts. I argue that the (counter)story, as interdisciplinary method, is thus tasked (and suffused) with immense possibilities.

Investment volatility during red sea crisis: Study in Asean country

The objective of this research is to investigate the volatility of investment instruments, with the aim of providing the best model for predicting investment value. In this topic, the main concepts and theories that underpin the research are presented. Efficient market hypothesis and rational expectations theory stand out, providing a solid basis for understanding the context of the investigation. The methodology adopted for this research GARCH modelling to analysis investment instrument and the impact of its volatility. Data collection was carried out through yahoo finance website and investing website during red sea war event. The research identified optimal GARCH models for different indexes and assets: GARCH (1,1) for JCI, STI, SET, and Bitcoin, E-GARCH (1,1) for KLSE, PSE, and VSE, and GJR-GARCH (1,1) for Gold. It discussed volatility persistence and leverage effects during the Red Sea War, considering model sensitivities, geopolitical impacts, and research limitations. This research's practical and theoretical implications inform financial risk management, highlighting the importance of robust volatility modeling. The findings can enhance portfolio optimization and investment strategies during geopolitical instability. These insights underscore the need for sophisticated approaches to manage financial risks effectively. This research uses advanced GARCH models to analyze volatility during the Red Sea Crisis, revealing asset-specific behaviors under geopolitical stress. The findings improve financial risk management and investment strategies in unstable conditions, enhancing volatility predictions and professional practices.

Exploring the Interplay between Business Economics and Global Trade

This study explores the interplay between Business Economics and global trade, focusing on how firms apply economic principles to navigate international markets. The primary aim is to understand how economic policies, risk management, and strategic decision-making processes influence global trade strategies. Utilizing a qualitative research methodology, the study involves in-depth interviews with business economists, trade experts, and senior executives from multinational corporations. Data collection centers on participants' experiences and insights regarding the impact of economic policies, risk management strategies, and decision-making processes in global trade contexts. Thematic analysis of the interview data reveals that firms actively use Business Economics to adapt to changing trade policies, manage risks such as currency fluctuations and geopolitical instability, and optimize their market entry and pricing strategies. The study highlights that businesses leveraging economic models and principles are better positioned to respond to external changes, mitigate risks, and capitalize on growth opportunities in the global market. These findings underscore the critical role of Business Economics in shaping effective global trade strategies and offer valuable insights for firms seeking to enhance their international operations.

Radiation Signature in Plasma Metabolome of Total-Body Irradiated Nonhuman Primates and Clinical Patients.

In the last decade, geopolitical instability across the globe has increased the risk of a large-scale radiological event, when radiation biomarkers would be needed for an effective triage of an irradiated population. Ionizing radiation elicits a complex response in the proteome, genome, and metabolome and hence can be leveraged as rapid and sensitive indicators of irradiation-induced damage. We analyzed the plasma of total-body irradiated (TBI) leukemia patients (n = 24) and nonhuman primates (NHPs; n = 10) before and 24 h after irradiation, and we performed a global metabolomic study aiming to provide plasma metabolites as candidate radiation biomarkers for biological dosimetry. Peripheral blood samples were collected according to the appropriate ethical approvals, and metabolites were extracted and analyzed by liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. We identified an array of metabolites significantly altered by irradiation, including bilirubin, cholesterol, and 18-hydroxycorticosterone, which were detected in leukemia patients and NHPs. Pathway analysis showed overlapping perturbations in steroidogenesis, porphyrin metabolism, and steroid hormone biosynthesis and metabolism. Additionally, we observed dysregulation in bile acid biosynthesis and tyrosine metabolism in the TBI patient cohort. This investigation is, to our best knowledge, among the first to provide valuable insights into a comparison between human and NHP irradiation models. The findings from this study could be leveraged for translational biological dosimetry.

Synergistic Aspects Of The Transformation Of Energy Security Management Mechanisms In Conditions Of Geopolitical Instability

The article systematizes the basic provisions of the concept of energy security, in which the emphasis is placed on uninterrupted access to energy sources, their diversification, environmental friendliness, and ensuring resistance to external threats. The content of the concept of «energy security», which acts as a system-forming element of national (economic, ecological, technical) security, orienting this system to the goals of sustainable energy development thanks to the effective use of fuel and energy resources in the context of ensuring economic growth, social progress, and environmental well-being, has been studied. It is proved that for the interpretation of the logic of energy development, it is advisable to use the system-synergistic approach, which explains the transformation of a complex system by passing bifurcation points, the formation of order attractors, and the emergence of self-organization mechanisms. Among the factors that determine the level of energy security, the geopolitical aspect associated with a wide variety of fluctuating influences that can bring the system out of equilibrium is highlighted in the first place. Any imbalance in the energy system directly affects the economic and social spheres, the state of the environment, as well as the international competitiveness of the state. Therefore, special attention is focused on the development of effective institutions, their consolidation in the daily activities of business entities that are part of the fuel and energy complex, and timely adaptation to changes in the operating environment. For the formation of attractors of sustainable energy development, it is necessary to apply effective management mechanisms that combine institutional and market components. Energy security is defined as a management object in which certain functional units, regulatory mechanisms, and algorithms for making and implementing management decisions are distinguished. The trends considered in the course of the study confirm the high energy interdependence of states in the conditions of globalization and, accordingly, the need to develop international energy security management mechanisms. As a result of combining the principles of flexibility, adaptability to modern geopolitical trends, requirements for socio-economic efficiency and environmental standards, on the one hand, and the characteristics of resistance, stability (to ensure national stability), on the other hand, a special regime of sustainable energy development at the level of individual states, integration associations and in the global dimension.

Demonstrable Consumption by Young People in Kazakhstan Under Conditions of Geopolitical Instability

The purpose of the research article is to identify trends in the development and changes in the demonstrative consumption of Kazakh youth within the existing geopolitical instability, with the possibility of further sociological research to identify patterns and changes in the demonstrative consumption of society in the future. Theoretical research explored the issues of demonstrative consumption as a sociological phenomenon by analyzing current geopolitical conditions and trends, as well as the (historical) factors contributing to demonstrative consumption; empirical research consisted of a survey of Kazakh youth (students) with a sample of 1844 people and processing of the results.

Research on the Impact of Geopolitical Instability on Russian Trade

This study examines how global and country- specific geopolitical instability affects Russian trade using data from 1996 to 2021. A panel regression model analyzes trade between Russia and its 15 top trading partners, exploring both direct and indirect effects. The analysis focuses on how accumulated foreign direct investment (FDI) and exchange rate fluctuations mediate these relationships. The findings reveal that global geopolitical instability decrease Russian trade by 0.0558. Interestingly, this negative impact is partially mediated by a decrease in FDI (-0.0805). This aligns with the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) results, which show a significant negative effect of global geopolitical instability on FDI (-1.209). This suggests that FDI acts as a key transmitter of the negative effects of global instability on Russian trade. The role of exchange rate fluctuations, however, is more complex. While the Sobel Test indicated a negative indirect effect, the SEM analysis shows a positive indirect effect through exchange rate fluctuations on trade. This suggests potentially countervailing effects of currency fluctuations, with depreciation potentially incentivizing exports while appreciation might make imports cheaper. The impact of country-specific geopolitical instability varies depending on the context. Industries like food products and textiles are significantly affected by geopolitical instability increase, while sectors such as fuels, metals and raw materials show resilience. Close trading partners are less affected by global instability but suffer from partner- specific instability. Geographically, Western Europe benefits from global instability but faces challenges from partner-specific instability, contrasting with Eastern Europe and Asia. Overall, this research contributes to the understanding of how geopolitical instability, mediated by FDI and exchange rates, shapes Russia's trade performance.

Microbiomes for the future of sustainable wheat production

Microbiomes for the future of sustainable wheat production Researchers from the WHEATBIOME project joined forces to address several challenges related to sustainable wheat production and consumption, revealing the role of microbes in shaping the Future of Healthy Food. Food systems are facing unprecedented challenges due to the increase in the world population, climate change, and geopolitical instability, which threaten food security and prices. Additionally, systemic inefficiencies and massive food waste from crop harvest to consumption have been observed. This scenario imposes an urgent unification of different scientific research areas to advance knowledge on a future-proof agrifood system. Wheat is a staple crop facing stagnant production in Europe due to increasing biotic and abiotic stresses exacerbated by climate change. Its nutritional importance spans human and animal consumption, yet its immunogenicity poses health risks like gluten sensitivity and celiac disease.