Geopolitical Environment Research Articles

Concert of Asia: How the World Should Deal with the Rise of China

As the China rise rapidly and aggressively, the world continues to be vulnerable due to the uncertain geopolitical environment and detrimental great powers gesture. This happens roughly at the global stage but more ominous to the regional politics in Asia Pacific. The region needs to spend more effort to deal with the rising China and somehow also required to alter the US primacy in global politics. To assure regional stability and security, this article proposes the model of the ‘concert of power’ inspired by the Concert of Europe to be carried out in Asia, precisely in Asia Pacific. The Concert of Asia enables more powers, great or mediocre, who are keys to the regional stability to perform checks and balances to one another, not only China itself. There are at least two great powers involve, China and the US. Also, there are few key players in the region that needs to be considered, not so powerful, but still have significant role, namely ASEAN and Japan. With this model, none of great powers could dominate the region and allowing states to secure themselves. Otherwise, great power rivalry is at stake.

Comprehensive Assessment of Spatial Distribution of Road-Network Vulnerability in South Asia

Unexpected phenomena-natural disasters, accidents and wars-can disrupt regional traffic systems because of the incapacities of road networks to sustain inflicted impacts. Therefore, the assessment of road-network vulnerability becomes integral to traffic-safety-maintenance and accident-prevention procedures. This study demonstrates the development of a comprehensive network system based on suggested improvements in node extraction, road construction and network attribution. An indicator system for assessing road-network vulnerability was established to be compatible with the South Asian environment and its geographical characteristics by integrating multisource data-topography, geology and meteorological and geopolitical environments. Employing the GIS-based spatial-analysis technique, a vulnerability-assessment model for South Asian road networks was constructed and spatial distributions of vulnerability characteristics were examined under extreme natural and human-influenced environments. The results demonstrate that the road-network-vulnerability distribution in India follows a decreasing trend outwards from the central part of the country. The highest road-network-vulnerability levels of 7 and 8 were observed in the central and northern parts of the Deccan plateau as well as the western coastal and northern mountainous regions. The northernmost part of Pakistan is characterized by road-vulnerability levels in the range of 9-10. Owing to the heavy influence of India-Pakistan conflicts and terror attacks, road networks in proximity to the India-Pakistan border are assigned the highest vulnerability level of 10. The results of this study demonstrate that changes in and the impact of, the geopolitical environment are primary factors influencing road-network vulnerability in South Asia.

The analysis of systematicity cooperation between the Russian Federation and the United Nations in terms of disaster risk reduction

In the conditions of transformation of geopolitical environment and escalating magnitude of natural and man-made disasters, the international humanitarian cooperation becomes one of the priorities on the agenda of all global actors. This substantiated by the fact that the increasing frequency of natural disasters requires the development of new approaches and programs for addressing the humanitarian issues. The goal of this article lies is the analysis of vectors and peculiarities if cooperation between the Russian Federation and the United Nations, as well as systematicity of their interaction in terms of humanitarian aid and disaster risk reduction. It is established that one of the urgent problems for the Russian Federation in the context of disaster risk reduction is wildfire prevention. The problem attracts as a global challenge has drawn particular attention of the UN.. Special emphasis is placed on the Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction, which for the Russian Federation and majority of countries of the world, serves as the methodological guide in the questions of participation and interaction with international partners towards overcoming humanitarian disasters and reducing the risks of anthropogenic hazards. Special attention is given to examination of the vectors and measures of support of the Russian Federation to the countries suffered from disasters. The conclusion is made that within the framework of interaction with the United Nations in terms of disaster risk reduction, the Russian Federation fully conforms to all strategic priorities and key provisions of the Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction. The acquired results are valuable for the improvement and development of the principles of international humanitarian cooperation between the countries in the context of formation of the new paradigm of civilizational development.

Domestic and International Causes of Russian Military Intervention in Ukraine

The collapse of the Cold War order led to a change in the geopolitical environment of the Russian Federation. The declarations of independence of the former Soviet republics and the emergence of the post-Soviet area had weakened the country’s position. As a result, the Russian Federation has been perceiving this new area as a zone of its ‘vital interests’, and attaining and maintaining dominant position in those territories has been considered crucial for the state’s security, its strength and position on the international arena. Russia has been pursuing its goals in the area through numerous reintegration attempts on political, military and economic levels. To achieve the main political goal, which is the control over the post-Soviet area, the Russian Federation has been also using military instruments. The focal point and purpose of this article is to show the internal and external causes of military intervention of the Russian Federation in eastern Ukraine.

Economics, Lobbying, and Geopolitics as Factors Shaping the Uncertainties and Risks of Defense Spending

Aim.The presented study aims to describe and analyze major opinions regarding the economic, lobbying, and geopolitical aspects of defense budget formation.Tasks.The authors qualitatively and quantitatively assess the impact of economic, geopolitical, and lobbying factors on the level of Russian military spending.Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition to examine the effects of economic, geopolitical, and lobbying factors on the level of Russian military spending in various aspects.Results.Currently, there is uncertainty in assessing the impact of economic and geopolitical factors, as well as lobbying, on the level of military spending. However, it can be concluded that while the factor of lobbying for the interests of companies increases the level of military spending unilaterally, the interaction between the economy and military security is assessed by scientists as negative, positive, or neutral. A certain level of defense spending is established by balancing the influence of economic, geopolitical, and lobbying factors. At the same time, the capability to significantly “boost” defense spending is a distinctive feature of geopolitical factors.Conclusions.In today’s relatively calm geopolitical environment, the level of Russian defense spending stands at 65-75 billion US dollars (2.5–4.0% of GNI). However, geopolitical factors can raise the level of military spending to 300 billion dollars per year or even higher (20% of GNI and more). According to rough estimates based on data on the formation of US military spending, lobbying influences about 10% of defense spending.

China-Russian cooperation in the Arctic: A cause for concern for the Western Arctic States?

ABSTRACT Increasing cooperation between China and Russia does not imply the development of an anti-Western pact and a coordinated revisionist strategy pursued by them in the Arctic. The Western Arctic States should monitor China-Russian regional cooperation but refrain from adopting strategies premised on the assumption both are, or will become, deeply aligned with each other. Russia and China should continue to be treated as distinct regional challenges requiring specific strategies towards each. Strengthening strategic solidarity between the Western Arctic States, including the United States (US) as a reinvigorated regional actor, in tackling specific challenges posed by these powers and adapting to a changing Arctic geopolitical environment is necessary. If American regional strategies, however, are solely about confrontation and exclusion against these powers, and pressuring across the board policy conformity onto its allies in these pursuits, these will be insufficient in addressing regional issues and risk marginalizing the autonomy and interests of smaller states like Canada. Facing such possibilities, Canada must continue to develop its own regional capabilities, become more forward leaning in addressing security and economic matters, and increase collaboration with the other smaller Arctic states to avoid the ongoing structuring of the region from becoming entirely dominated by great powers.

A Case in Relations between Great Powers and Small States—France’s Recognition of Finnish Independence, 1917–1918

Abstract What are the most important variables explaining the 4 January 1918 decision by the French Government to recognise Finland’s independence? This short contribution to the Special Issue aims at giving a broad overview of developments explaining this decision. It will first of all introduce general notions concerning France’s relation with “nationalities” during the First World War. It will more specifically describe the geopolitical environment of the winter 1917–1918, when France looked for ways to react to the crumbling of its Russian ally against Germany. It will also emphasise the way domestic developments and the long-term action of Finnish national networks helped in shaping up this decision. Finally, based on this example, it will consider various ways for small states to try and influence their international environment.

Dialectical Moralism, National Interest, and Foreign Policy: The Case of United States and Pakistan

US foreign policy throughout the history is replete with the moralistic rhetoric – pursuance of American moral principles embodied in the declaration of independence, constitution, and in the repeated doctrines of the American presidents. Yet the careful examination of its foreign policy reveals that it remained mostly amoral in nature, that is, devoid of any moral or immoral essence. It has mostly pursued the national self-interest which remained dynamic because of the changing geopolitical environment of the region and the world. Use of religion since Pakistan’s independence to align with it against godless communist Soviet Union, neglecting Pakistan’s nuclear program because of the greater national self-interest during 1980s, supporting military governments in Pakistan while being the biggest proponent of democracy in the world, use of drone warfare while violating the sovereignty and international law, are few of the amoralistic policies being pursued by the United States towards Pakistan. The study concludes that the United States have/will continue to use the moral rhetoric as a leverage to pressurise or entice Pakistan to do its bidding and in the case of failing, to utilise the same rhetoric as a tool to distance itself from Pakistan, when its national interests are served.

China's Drive for Innovation within a World of Profound Changes

executive summary: This essay examines China's drive for innovation as part of its national development strategy and addresses the tensions China faces between retaining control and autonomy in relevant sciences and technologies and becoming a global leader in these fields. main argument The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has assessed that the world is undergoing "profound changes unseen in a century" in part as a result of rapid advances in science and technology. The Covid-19 pandemic has heightened the impact of these changes and added to the disruption of the current global order. Such conditions present unique challenges and opportunities for China in the course of its national rejuvenation. Xi Jinping has accelerated the pursuit of China's rise as a great power, and the 14th Five-Year Plan highlights the country's capacity for innovation and to leverage science and technology in pursuit of that objective. Progress toward this goal, however, has been uneven. Although China aspires to be a new "high ground" in science and technology, the capacity for innovative Chinese technologies to go global may be undermined by a deficit of trust and transparency. If China does emerge as a leader in new frontiers of innovation in the course of the fourth industrial revolution, this shift could present significant implications for the future balance of power. policy implications • China's drive for innovation will continue to confront certain incongruities. While the CCP has prioritized innovation, the imperative of party control may undermine the necessary conditions for it. And while China has risen within and benefited from a world of open science, intense competition in the geopolitical environment is complicating that paradigm. • China and its technology companies have shown increasing technological prowess (e.g., in coping with the Covid-19 pandemic) but still face technical impediments to overcoming strangleholds in key areas, such as semiconductors, that act as chokepoints. • For the U.S. to sustain its traditional leadership in science and technology, it will need to revitalize and reinvest in innovation domestically.

Psychological Casualties as a Source of Friction During War and a Mediator of Coerced Peace Efforts

The United States homeland does not enjoy sanctuary in the twenty-first century geopolitical environment. Near-peer rivals, such as China and Russia, have capabilities that can impact the United States homeland during a high-end war. Adversaries’ aerospace capabilities have the potential to cause large volumes of psychological casualties among the United States population. Psychological casualties during a high-end war could serve as the basis for a mass call to end a war due to the altered information processing seen among traumatized people. Such a call to end a war could result in unfavorable peace settlements. The United States homeland must improve its ability to prevent cognitive hacking and it must insulate its population from epistemologies unfavorable to the United States.

OSCE mediation strategies in Eastern Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh: a comparative analysis

ABSTRACT Even though the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has performed mediation efforts in Eurasian secessionist conflicts, its role has been neglected by mainstream international relations (IR) and conflict mediation literature. To fill in this gap, this article examines OSCE mediation strategies in two major secessionist conflicts: the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Drawing on Zartman’s conceptual framework, this study posits that OSCE mediation strategies were constrained given its weak organisational capacity, lack of legal empowerment and adverse geopolitical environment. Due to these structural limitations, the OSCE can be said to have been more effective in containing conflict than contributing to conflict resolution. This article aims to contribute to conflict mediation research by highlighting the importance of context for understanding the role of international organisations (IOs) as mediators.

Publicly attributing cyber attacks: a framework

ABSTRACT When should states publicly attribute cyber intrusions? Whilst this is a question governments increasingly grapple with, academia has hardly helped in providing answers. This article describes the stages of public attribution and provides a Public Attribution Framework designed to explain, guide, and improve decision making of public attribution by states. Our general argument is that public attribution is a highly complex process which requires trade-offs of multiple considerations. Effective public attribution not only necessitates a clear understanding of the attributed cyber operation and the cyber threat actor, but also the broader geopolitical environment, allied positions and activities, and the legal context. This also implies that more public attribution is not always better. Public attribution carries significant risks, which are often badly understood. We propose the decision maker’s attitude towards public attribution should be one of ‘strategic, coordinated pragmatism’. Public attribution – as part of a strategy – can only be successful if there is a consistent goal, whilst the avenues for potential negative counter effects are assessed on a case-by-case basis.

Evolutionary institutionalism in Europe’s neighborhood post-enlargement: the European Neighborhood Policy brings geopolitics back in

A major conceptual overhaul is under way in the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) with significant consequences for its eastern dimension. This paper examines such policy adjustments from the perspective of evolutionary institutionalism. The paper revisits the changing rationale of the ENP due to the impact of the broader geopolitical environment on its normative structure and compliance mechanisms on the example of the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) with six countries in the post-Soviet space. By tracing the evolution of the EaP as a result of the Ukraine crisis and the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union, the paper finds that the EaP’s progressive institutional growth has been replaced with the diversification of its governance mechanism, transforming the established top-down model of conditionality and deep institutionalization of the EU’s neighborhood relations. The evolving institutional arrangements of the EaP, nominally at odds with the principles of institutional continuity, demonstrate that international institutions are resilient vis-a-vis ecological pressures. These findings represent a novel contribution to the literature exploring the institutions-geopolitics dichotomy in the Europe/Eurasia region. The paper concludes that, as the EU has adapted to the structural dependencies of its partners, it is now better positioned to expand its influence in the post-Soviet space. The evolution of the EaP offers valuable insights into the actual process of building a more geopolitical EU: not by advancing pragmatic EU interests or establishing its own “soft” sphere of influence in the Europe/Eurasia region but by sustaining inclusive resilient and efficient institutions with a global outlook.

“Where Is Bhutan?” The Production of Bhutan's Asymmetrical Inbetweenness in Geopolitics

In this article, I interrogate the exhaustive “inbetweenness” through which Bhutan is understood and located on a map (“inbetween India and China”). I argue that this understanding naturalizes a contemporary geopolitics with little depth about how this inbetweenness has shifted over the centuries, thereby constructing a timeless, obscure, and remote Bhutan that is “naturally” oriented southward. I trace how the construction of Bhutan's asymmetrical inbetweenness is nested in the larger story of the formation and consolidation of imperial British India and its dissolution, and the emergence of post-colonial India as a successor state. I identify and analyze the key economic dynamics of three phases marked by commercial, production, and security interests, through which this asymmetrical inbetweenness was consolidated. Bringing together sources from different disciplines and archival work, this account also challenges some of the dominant historical scholarship on Bhutan in each phase. I conclude by emphasizing that critical work at the intersection of geographical/political/historical contingencies is important to the subalternizing of geopolitics, which recognizes the myriad ways in which dominant powers have shaped both the geopolitical environment as well as knowledge-making that has constrained small states.

The European Geopolitical Space and the Long Path to Brexit (TheGovernment and Opposition/Leonard Schapiro Lecture 2020)

AbstractAlthough Brexit had its short-term roots in economic and constitutional legitimation issues, it cannot be explained without considering the European geopolitical space, the EU's contrasting political formations in the security and economic spheres, and the fault lines these produce. Seen from a long-term geopolitical perspective, there have been recurrent problems in Britain's efforts to deal with the EU and its predecessors, and persistent patterns of crisis. The geopolitical environment, especially around NATO and energy security in the Middle East, first rendered non-membership of the EEC a problem, then made entry impossible for a decade, helped make EU membership politically very difficult for British governments to sustain, and then constrained the May governments’ Article 50 negotiations. These problems have a singularly British shape, but they cannot be separated from more general fault lines in the European geopolitical space.

RUSSIAN AGGRESSION AS A CHALLENGE IN THE SPHERE OF UKRAINE'S NATIONAL SECURITY

It’s stated that the annexation of Crimea and Russian-Ukrainian hybrid war in Eastern Ukraine is a threat and a challenge not only to Ukraine’s national security, its sovereignty but also to the contemporary world order. Ukrainian political system has not yet formed an appropriate and effective means and mechanisms to counter Russian hybrid expansion. The author underscore that it is impossible to ensure national security of Ukraine today, using only traditional approaches combined to improve the state security functions or satisfy some narrow interests. This approach is ineffectual and also stimulates overspending of public resources and leads to duplication of the central authorities’ functions, and sometimes even starts threat to the state’s national interests. Russian aggression is the result of ineffectual government policies, rising corruption, and lack of sufficient resources to ensure living standards of the population. It is proved that for Russia the war with Ukraine is a perfect way to overcome the dysfunctional private system, as cheap media and small losses not only ensured survival but also laid the possibility of prolonged exposure to other geopolitical players, and development trends in the geopolitical environment.

UNDERSTANDING PAK-CHINA RELATIONS THROUGH CPEC: GEOSTRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS FOR SOUTH ASIA

In the prevailing geopolitical environment, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the new addition with hopes of exploring new horizons in economic cooperation and expected to have regional and global geopolitical implications. Strategic thinkers, policy-makers, and scholars have heralded CPEC as a magnificent trade and investment project of future geopolitics. Yet many analysts have raised their eyebrows about the USA and Chinese competition ultimately seeking robust security and economic strategy by China and Pakistan to avoid Indo-US designs. The objective of this study is to focus on the all-weather relationship, which China and Pakistan are enjoying with shared goals and interests in the region. This article focuses on the China and Pakistan relations while keeping in mind the emerging strategic partnership of the United States with Pakistan’s belligerent neighbour India through a neo-realistic perspective focused on structure and anarchy in the international political system.

Bronze-to-brass transition in the medieval Bukhara oasis

The Bukhara oasis, with its unique geographic location, played an important role during the medieval period when it led the region’s political development as part of the Islamic world adjacent to the pastoralists in the northern steppe. Such a distinctive geopolitical environment likely left a visible trace in the shaping of material culture, which we tested by focusing on numerous copper-based metal objects recovered from a medieval site near Bukhara, Uzbekistan. Different types of objects including lighting devices, household objects, small buckles, and rings were metallographically examined for their microstructure and alloy composition. A clear sign of technological transition from bronze to brass was consistently observed in all the object types under consideration where scrap bronze served as one of the key raw materials. Large objects were mostly made of alloys containing a substantial amount of zinc. In contrast, the small buckles and rings were strictly divided between those with and without the addition of zinc, suggesting the simultaneous existence of two different alloy traditions regarding the use of zinc. We discuss these analytical results to relate the emergence of such a unique technological tradition to the region’s sociopolitical settings.

Nikolaus Leo Overtoom. “The Power-Transition Crisis of the 160s–130s BCE and the Formation of the Parthian Empire”

The article discusses the rise of the Parthians to power over large territories in the Middle East at the expense of their Seleucid rivals. The author borrows a framework from International Relations theory, namely (Offensive) Realism, to place the actions of the Parthian kings, in particular Mithridates I in their wider geo-political environment. While the resulting account is rather close to a traditional (positivist) political history, the explicit reference to political science theory all...

Disrupting the hierarchy of knowledge production: the case of documenting social theatre in Palestine

ABSTRACT The field of social theatre is founded in community-engaged creative processes. It is inherently political, embedded in its geopolitical and social environment. Yet existing methods of documentation – the distribution and gathering of data and its output - do not always reflect this tradition. Methods related to documentation raise various concerns around consistent ways to gain and share knowledge if the meanings that we cultivate are not approached as an active, non-hierarchised exchange with and among communities, activists and practitioners we serve. In general form, these concerns are: a) What are the implications of needing to document social theatre; and b) What becomes of this knowledge? These two questions are demonstrated within the case of documentation in the occupied Palestinian territories. In a region containing the most documented and recorded conflict in the world (Debray 2007), academic research serves arguably to impose structure on a given phenomenon. Yet ‘imposing’ structure – or what one considers as such – raises additional concerns of perpetuating dynamics of colonial occupation amidst a population that is increasingly denied self-representation. Using this example, I argue that the future of our field risks data fossilising if it does not retain creative flexibility in crossing disciplines, in protecting grassroots and practice-based forms of knowledge cultivation, and in taking risks in permitting inquiries to test our scholarly expertise. This piece argues for an epistemological shift in our knowledge production – both its collection and distribution.