Economics, Lobbying, and Geopolitics as Factors Shaping the Uncertainties and Risks of Defense Spending

Abstract

Aim.The presented study aims to describe and analyze major opinions regarding the economic, lobbying, and geopolitical aspects of defense budget formation.Tasks.The authors qualitatively and quantitatively assess the impact of economic, geopolitical, and lobbying factors on the level of Russian military spending.Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition to examine the effects of economic, geopolitical, and lobbying factors on the level of Russian military spending in various aspects.Results.Currently, there is uncertainty in assessing the impact of economic and geopolitical factors, as well as lobbying, on the level of military spending. However, it can be concluded that while the factor of lobbying for the interests of companies increases the level of military spending unilaterally, the interaction between the economy and military security is assessed by scientists as negative, positive, or neutral. A certain level of defense spending is established by balancing the influence of economic, geopolitical, and lobbying factors. At the same time, the capability to significantly “boost” defense spending is a distinctive feature of geopolitical factors.Conclusions.In today’s relatively calm geopolitical environment, the level of Russian defense spending stands at 65-75 billion US dollars (2.5–4.0% of GNI). However, geopolitical factors can raise the level of military spending to 300 billion dollars per year or even higher (20% of GNI and more). According to rough estimates based on data on the formation of US military spending, lobbying influences about 10% of defense spending.