Geopolitical Crisis Research Articles

Impact assessment of energy sanctions in geo-conflict: Russian–Ukrainian war

Since the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Western countries led by the United States and the European Union have launched several energy sanctions against Russia. How will sanctions and countersanctions on energy trade affect the EU-Russia and the world’s energy trade pattern? This paper sets six energy trade scenarios based on the degree of energy sanctions and counter-sanction measures imposed by the EU and Russia. We use the global multi-region comparative static CGE model to simulate the changes in macroeconomic indicators in major countries worldwide. The diversion effect of energy trade and the impact on the national economy caused by geographical risks quantitatively analyzes. The results show: (1) Energy sanctions will cause economic damage to both sides, in the worst-case scenario, the EU economic loss reaches 1.488%, the Russian loss reaches 4.8%, and worldwide inflation will rise; (2) Russia’s counter-sanctions will have a direct economic impact on the EU, but will not improve its economic situation; (3) Energy sanctions will bring about a direct energy trade transfer effect, the EU’s energy imports will be diverted to non-Russian markets, and Russian energy exports will also shift to Asian markets, and energy trade between the two economies will be significantly reduced; (4) Energy supply will have a profound impact on the world’s economy and society, leading to social instability and a decline in total output of 2.895%. Energy games will have a negative impact on the world’s carbon emission reduction and energy consumption structure transformation. Through quantitative analysis of the impact of energy sanctions on the world economy and society, the energy game caused by the geopolitical crisis will harm both parties involved in the game and the world economy. The world pattern will return from the development pattern of cooperative division of labor to a situation of conflict and confrontation, which is not conducive to the transformation of energy trade and consumption structure under market rules.

Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Sustainable Development Goals: A Study through Indian Financial Market Perspective

This study measures impact of geopolitical crisis concerning Russia Ukraine War with reference to Sustainable development Goal 8. The researchers have analyzed the variables such as Indian stock market performance, MCX crude oil and Indian GDP Indices to calculate the linear interdependencies among crude oil, Indian stock market performance and Gross Domestic Product using monthly data from January 2016 to May 2022 using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Time series stationarity is checked using Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The time series used for the analysis are MCX iCOMDEX crude oil Index, Nifty 50 Index, and GDP Index. Correlation is measured using the Granger Causality Test and VAR model. The outcome demonstrates that the lagged values of the Nifty and crude oil prices indexes are very effectively used to explain the GDP Index. Granger’s Causation Matrix shows that past value of NIFTY Index causes change in GDP Index similarly past value of Nifty Index causes change in MCX Crude oil Index, whereas MCX crude oil does not cause much change in GDP Index. Further research could be done using a detailed time series for a longer period to find any impact of crude oil prices on GDP.

Globalni stagflatorni pritisci - makroekonomske reperkusije pandemijske i geopolitičke krize

This paper analyses key macroeconomic repercussions of the global pandemic and geo-political crises in terms of growing recessionary and inflationary pressures, and finally, the potential occurrence of stagflation. The aim of this paper is to primarily analyse the stagflation shocks of the 70s, afterwards, compare them with the current crisis for the period January 2020 - July 2022 using the example of selected developed economies (USA, Germany and France). Using descriptive analysis, it was shown that in the observed period inflationary and recessionary pressures existed in USA, Germany and France. However, those pressures could not be identified as stagflation, since that were not present simultaneously. Namely, during the pandemic crisis, recessionary pressures were present, since then the GDP growth decreased till first quarter of 2021 in analysed economies, while inflation rates were stable. On the other hand, with the recovery of economies in the second quarter of 2021, inflationary pressures became stronger and intensified by geo-political crisis. Therefore, it seems that the most visible anomaly of the global economic system in 2022 is the presence of inflationary pressures.

Prospects of Russian export of mineral fertilizers to Brazil

The article evaluates current situation and describes the prospects of cooperation between the Russian Federation and Brazil within the framework of the mineral fertilizers trade in the context of the geopolitical crisis. The author considers global trends in the consumption of mineral fertilizers, the current conjuncture of the world market of complex mineral fertilizers, the role of Russia in the global supply chain, pricing of mineral fertilizers for the end user. The special attention is paid to the analysis of positions of the main Russian mineral fertilizers’ producers in Latin America and in particular in Brazil, where the share of Russian products in the context of the country's market is quite high. The principal barriers to mutual trade were identified as well as the ways to overcome them. Features of transportation of fertilizers to Brazil were also considered while information about the main state projects aimed at solving problems in logistics, including the renewal of the marine fleet, was revealed. In conclusion the author provides arguments in favor of the fact that the trade in mineral fertilizers between Russia and Brazil will develop in the long term despite the geopolitical crisis and turbulence of the markets, that can bring mutual benefits to both countries.

Трансформация мирового рынка нефти: драйверы и перспективы

The world oil market is in the process of profound transformation. Under the influence of both long-term trends and recent exogenous shocks in the form of the global coronavirus pandemic and the geopolitical crisis around Ukraine, global oil demand, world oil production and trade in crude oil and petroleum products are being transformed in real time. The main driver of the restructuring of the oil market is the approaching risk of peak of global oil demand. On the supply side strengthening the position of the United States in world oil production, which is the result of technological breakthroughs in the methods of tight oil extraction is observed. The short-term elasticity of oil supply has increased markedly. Sluggish dynamics of global demand for oil against the backdrop of an expanding opportunity for a rapid increase in oil production have significantly reduced the risk of a shortage of oil supply, at least in the medium term. This forces the OPEC countries, which are in dire need of maximizing oil export revenues in order to maintain acceptable economic growth rates, to restrain oil production at the expense of their market niche. Western sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector provoked a reorientation of Russian oil exports to the markets of friendly and nonaligned countries, primarily to India and China, as well as Turkey. In Europe, the former niches of Russian oil are taken by the United States and OPEC countries. To avoid the risks of falling under secondary sanctions, importers of Russian oil buy it with a price discount. In fact, world oil trade has taken a dual structure: the vast majority of oil is traded using market price quotations, while at the same time, a segment of trade in relatively cheap oil has emerged. Until 2022, this segment was formed by Iranian and Venezuelan oil, but it was much more modest in terms of absolute volume. The parallel existence of two segments in the world oil trade led to sharpening of competition between oil exporters. A return to normality could be a new shock for the oil market.

The impact of geopolitical trends on modern banking business in Russia

The consequences of the geopolitical crisis and «endless» sanctions affected the development of all sectors of the Russian economy, including the banking sector, which suffered a significant blow. The relevance of the article is due to the development of a set of solutions aimed at achieving the goals of «Russification» of modern banking business, but taking into account world standards. The aim of the study was to develop measures to prevent (up to leveling) the impact of sanctions and geopolitical restrictions on the banking business based on monitoring the current situation in the banking system, the quantitative and qualitative parameters of which are currently being formed. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the assessment of the influence of geopolitical trends on modern banking business. The methodological component includes an assessment of the change in the vector of banking services in modern conditions, a qualitative assessment of the problems of the banking business. As a result, measures are being developed to address these problems. The conclusion is made about the priority of evolving their own directions for the development of the banking business.

Politics as Fate: Max Weber on the Tragedy of the Great Power’s Position

The complex attitude of the great sociologist towards war and the burden of greatpowerness is still relevant today, secifically, for understanding the range of discursive reactions to the acute geopolitical crisis in Europe, which once again is threatening to develop into a global conflict.

ОБРАЗ РОССИЙСКОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ В БРИТАНСКИХ СМИ: КОРПУСНО-ОРИЕНТИРОВАННЫЙ ДИСКУРСИВНЫЙ ПОДХОД К РЕКОНСТРУКЦИИ НОВОСТНЫХ ФРЕЙМОВ

The major objective of this case study is to discursively assess the UK press coverage of the economic climate in Russia in the early stages of the geopolitical crisis of 2014-15. The empirical material constituting a 730-thousand-word corpus derives from UK national newspapers and the Financial Times online archive. Applying techniques of corpus-assisted discourse studies, an inductive framing analysis seeks to detect the underlying cultural frames employed by British journalists to construct news content about Russian economy and invite readers to interpret the news in a particular way. The methodological approach consists of successive analytical stages that involve moving back and forth between quantitative and qualitative techniques of analysis that lead to the emergence of conceptual categories, or frames. The analysis produced four dominant frames and two alternative counter-frames, all of which are logically formed in clusters of framing and reasoning devices and integrated in a frame matrix. Each cluster in the matrix conveys a coherent overarching idea that represents the frame. The inventory is represented through a broader cultural scenario of a classic fairy tale in which a villain, victim, hero, friends and foes interact in the context of crime and punishment. The dominant scenario reinforces the negative image of Russian economy by portraying Russia as a villain bearing moral and financial responsibility for its aggressive behavior. The alternative scenario invalidates the dominant frames by crediting Russia with political and economic virtues. It is then suggested that a more resolute use of counter-frames in communication about the Russian case might mitigate the negative image of Russia in the British news media. The findings also demonstrate that corpus linguistic techniques integrated in a qualitative framing analysis can lead to a more reliable identification of loci for both privileged and unprivileged discourses, thereby providing evidence for both popular and unpopular forms of understanding the issue or topic covered in the media.

The political economy of technological sovereignty: On the transformation of the concept into the scientific category

In the context of the current geopolitical crisis and a new reality formation, technological sovereignty is of particular importance for ensuring national security. This concept is relatively new in science and has not yet been developed. Its semantic content remains controversial and ambiguous, as well as ideas about the ways and methods of its formation and strengthening. In this regard, the article presents a comparative analysis of the “technological sovereignty” concept, based on its comparison with the similar concepts of “technosphere”, “national interests”, “national security”, “economic activity”. The lexical interpretation of “technological sovereignty” as a new concept and as a scientific category is given. Special attention is paid to endogenous and exogenous factors determining the formation of “technological sovereignty”, the need for its more targeted complementation with development goals (totality, system, structure of interests), as well as the definition of its subject and object nature.

О ВОЙНЕ И ЕЕ ЗНАЧЕНИИ ДЛЯ ГРАЖДАНСКИХ ПРАВООТНОШЕНИЙ: АНАЛИЗ ИСТОРИЧЕСКОГО ОПЫТА ПРАВОВОГО РЕГУЛИРОВАНИЯ ГРАЖДАНСКОГО ОБОРОТА ВО ВРЕМЯ МИРОВЫХ ВОЙН ХХ ВЕКА C РЕШЕНИЕМ НЕКОТОРЫХ АКТУАЛЬНЫХ ПРАКТИЧЕСКИХ КЕЙСОВ

Based on the experience of the world wars of the twentieth century, the author examines approaches to the adaptation of the main institutions of civil law when used in times of war, draws conclusions about the applicability of individual solutions found to the situation of the geopolitical crisis associated with a special military operation in Ukraine. The article contains practical advice on the implementation of legal assistance in the field of civil relations to mobilised citizens and members of their families.

GVCs in times of global crises and economic regionalization: Case of Russian oil and gas industry

The traditional global value chains (GVCs) model is changing, which challenges the strategic decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Due to the increased uncertainty in the system of international economic relations, GVCs tend to shorten, and this is an additional risk for emerging markets MNEs in the context of adjusting their integration strategies into GVCs. Deglobalization and regionalization became a new global trend. States that cannot solve the problems of partial localization and control of chains vital to their economy are doomed to a new crisis in the foreseeable future. As the global economy returns to the indicators of 2019 for quite a long time, the processes of deglobalization, regional autarky, and national isolation will continue. For Russia and the Russian MNEs, the situation is aggravated by the presence of sanctions from the EU and the United States, as well as the difficult geopolitical situation around Ukraine. The unprecedented turbulence of global political and socio-economic processes in the current period creates significant risks for sustainable development. This study examines and discusses the influence of crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the geopolitical crisis of 2022 on GVCs strategies in the cases of Russian vertically integrated oil and gas companies such as Gazprom, LUKOIL and Rosneft.

“Freedom of Academia in and out: Social Sciences and Humanities in the Time of Geopolitical Crisis” A review of the conference held at Yerevan State University on October 19-21, 2023.

An overview of the international conference held at Yerevan State University in October 2003 and dedicated to the challenges to the academic freedom, particualrlty in post-Soviet area, due to geopoiltical crises.

ТЕХНОЛОГИИ РИСК-РЕЦЕПЦИИ КАК ИНСТРУМЕНТ ПОЛИТИЧЕСКОГО ВЛИЯНИЯ В МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫХ ОТНОШЕНИЯХ

The article is about analyzing the issue of risk management in the sphere of world politics, the importance of which is increasing in the conditions of the modern geopolitical crisis. The purpose of the study is to consider the issue of risk perception in a political perspective; substantiation of the application of the cognitive-narratological approach to its study; description of risk-reception technologies as a mechanism for the formation of one of the types of strategic narratives; assessment of the prospects for the use of certain technologies for manipulating the perception of risks in the field of international relations. The analysis of scientific publications on the issues of risk perception is carried out, a number of interdisciplinary areas of value for political science are identified. The application of cognitive-narratological methodology and the concept of strategic narratives in the study of risk perception issues issubstantiated. The operationalization of risk perception management concepts in the practice of international communication is carried out using the example of strategic planning technologies of the RAND Corporation, an American analytical center for the study of global politics. The principles of risk reception technologies (risk perception management technologies) are described, it is shown that the mechanism of their application includes the impact on the cognition of “perception” or “reception”. By the example of one of the types of strategic narratives, an assessment of the prospects for the use of certain technologies for manipulating risk perception in the field of international relations is given.

Reframing Poverty Within the Sustainable Development Strategies. Empirical Evidence at the European Union Level

(1) Purpose: Within the significance of eradicating poverty in the long term, the purpose of this paper is to assess the implications of the dimensions of sustainable development, across all European Union Member States, on poverty, through the lens of dimensions focused on economic and social factors, both directly and globally, in their mutual interconnectedness. (2) Methodology: The research methodology consists of applying two econometric models, namely, panel models (with fixed effects) and Gaussian graphical models, to assess the mutual, global interconnectedness of the main sustainable development benchmarks. Data used in the analysis was collected for the period 2009 and 2019. (3) Results: There are direct and overall implications of the dimensions of sustainable development (including economic and social factors), across all European Union Member States, on poverty. (4) Conclusions: All the European Union Member States are affected by poverty, but to varying degrees, which is why governments are urged to further develop actions to combat the harmful effects of poverty. (5) Implications: In the context of the current financial and geopolitical crisis driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, increasing the focus of all stakeholders on poverty and sustainable development is essential, especially by expanding sustainable development goals that address multi-dimensional poverty.

In the Midst of the Coronavirus and Geopolitical Crises—Inventory Efficiency and Challenges Faced in Finland

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the world lived through loose monetary policy and low interest rates. These were further reinforced in 2020, and product-based demand increased throughout the world. Due to these, as well as the suddenly developing geopolitical crisis in Ukraine, inflation started to accelerate (both consumer and producer), and this was especially the case in Europe. Therefore, there is a need for descriptive analysis on how trade and manufacturing companies have reacted to the existing multifaced crisis. This research used data of Finnish publicly traded companies. On the basis of the results, inventories increased in the longer term, especially in 2021 and 2022 (the first half of the year). Content analysis revealed reasons for inventory build-up in 2021–2022, with these being the result of many different causes. In some cases, business expansion or decline was said to be the reason, while in others, it was availability issues faced and purchasing price increases experienced. Interestingly, Russia was directly mentioned as a reason by only a few companies.

Accessible decision support for sustainable energy systems in developing countries

With rising electricity demand through digitization and innovation, the urgency of climate change mitigation, and the recent geopolitical crisis, stakeholders in developing countries face the complex task to build reliable, affordable, and low-emission energy systems. Information inaccessibility, data unavailability, and scarce local expertise are major challenges for planning and transitioning to decentralized solutions. Motivated by the calls for more solution-oriented research regarding sustainability, we design, develop, and evaluate the web-based decision support system NESSI4Dweb+ that is tailored to the needs and capabilities of various stakeholders in developing countries. NESSI4Dweb+ is open access and considers location-specific circumstances to facilitate multi-energy planning. Its applicability is demonstrated with a case study of a representative rural village in southern Madagascar and evaluated through seven interviews with experts and stakeholders. We show that NESSI4Dweb+ can support the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and enable the very prerequisite of digitization: reliable electrification.

To the question of national, economic and financial security of Russia

The article reveals the theoretical aspects of the national, economic and financial security of Russia before the Great October Socialist Revolution, in the period from the formation of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) to its collapse and in the period of the modern history of the Russian Federation. the author's position of the activation of the global geopolitical crisis and geo-economic crisis (caused by the creation of new geo-economic centers for the development of the world economy) is given, which is an objective reason for the redistribution of the world caused by the next phase of the reproductive crisis and the global financial crisis in the world economy. the role of finance in economic development and ensuring economic and financial security at different historical stages of Russia, the USSR and the Russian Federation is shown. It is concluded that in the conditions of the global monocentric model of the functioning of financial capital, led by the United States, the countries of the economic "periphery" are forced to bear losses due to the monopoly dictate of the world financial centers of emission (primarily the dollar and the euro). the reasons for the destruction of the USSR are formulated, the main of which is: the destruction of the country's national security system by the top leaders of the USSR, the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR) and other union republics of the Soviet Union. the principled character of the Soviet leadership in conducting a sovereign, national monetary policy is shown. the creation by the global financial system of conditions for overproduction of two world fully unsecured currencies (the dollar and the euro) and the formation of the potential of the global financial crisis are argued.

The Foreign Trade of Greece and the EU during the Economic Crisis (2008) and the Health Crisis (2020)

This paper examines the foreign trade of Greece compared to the foreign trade of EU28 during the Economic Crisis (2008) and the Health Crisis (2020). Based on the findings of relevant scientific literature, the quantitative data of external trade (exports, imports, trade balance) are recorded and analyzed methodologically. At the same time, the terms of trade and the degree of extroversion of Greek commerce compared to the corresponding figures of the EU28 during the period of the economic crisis (2008-2018) and the health crisis (2020-2021) are extracted. According to previous scientific literature in times of crisis, the volume of foreign trade at international, regional and national level is also bearing, among other financial figures.The economic crisis (2008) and the implemented harsh restrictive measures due to fiscal contraction resulted, among other consequences, in the reduction of income and internal demand, that the businesses confronted, strengthening their commercial extroversion, while for the same reasons imports decreased, resulting in an improvement in the trade balance, the terms of trade and the degree of commercial extroversion. Accordingly, from the current data, it seems that the exports of both Greece and the EU28 decreased to about the same extent during the period of the Health Crisis (2019-2020). As far as the external trade figures are concerned, it appears that the Greek degree of sensitivity to the effects of crises is greater than that of the EU28. Indeed, it appears that exports are less vulnerable to the effects of crises than imports. This behavior of Greek foreign trade can be explained by the sectoral composition of exports, in which the greatest relevance is attributed to the products with great elasticity of demand in terms of income, by the smaller size of enterprises and hence the limited access to commercial loans and external financing, but also by the lack of competitiveness of exported products in terms of added value, quality and price, compared to those of the EU28 and especially of the most developed countries. Suggestions for further research are to expand the period of the data taking into consideration the period of 2021 and solving dilemma how the new geopolitical crisis of Russia and Ukraine will affect the international trade relations, bonds and transactions.

Spatial Solar Energy Potential of Photovoltaic Panels Surrounded by Protected Mountain Ranges

High growth of human population and dynamic socio-economic development have contributed to mounting demand for electric energy. Currently, electric energy is mainly generated from mined and combusted fossil fuels and by the nuclear power plants. The current geopolitical crisis forces mankind to reflect upon the search for alternative energy sources. In this paper analyses of the potential solar radiation volume for 12 months and annual total have been made and visualized on the maps. Additionally, the energy volume gained by the photovoltaic systems in a 12-month period and the annual total as well as underutilised solar radiation energy were calculated. It was found that the tested sites had a solar potential in the range from 113 kWh·m<sup>−2</sup> to 1314 kWh·m<sup>−2</sup>. For process reasons, only 18 to 203 kWh·m<sup>−2</sup> could be converted into electric energy, which accounts approximately for 1/5 of the total radiation. The results can be useful to show the best investment site for commercial plants and households in the mountainous area. Surplus energy output should be stored or sold to the power grid. Moreover, the energy source from photovoltaic panels in these areas is only one of the options for green energy generation.

From Short-Term Risk to Long-Term Strategic Challenges: Reviewing the Consequences of Geopolitics and COVID-19 on Economic Performance

The COVID-19 crisis and the war between Russia and Ukraine affects the world economy badly. The western countries’ economic sanctions on Russia and the Russian government’s reverse sanctions on western countries create pressure on the world economy. This study was conducted to investigate how the economic performance is responding to COVID-19 and the geopolitical crisis of the era. In doing so, both theoretical and numerical data reviews have been performed. The objective of the study is to investigate the short-term risks and long-term strategic challenges of the crisis. The study used a bibliometric approach with the help of RStudio software. The Web of Science database was used for extracting the resources in line with the grey literature from the Google Search engine. A total of 895 documents were utilized in this bibliometric analysis. At the same time, secondary panel data extracted from the international monetary fund (IMF) for a period of 4 years (2019–2022) were utilized for reviewing numerical implications. The purposive sampling technique is used for data selection and main economic variables. The findings of the study imply that countries over the world registered less economic growth, high inflation rate, and high government debt in 2022 compared to the fiscal period of 2019–2021. The emerging economies and developing countries of Europe were badly affected by the crisis as the level of inflation rate hit 27 percent and the economic growth of the region registered a negative 2.9 percent. The study also found rising interest rates, exchange rate volatility, risk of stagflation, and rising energy prices are the short-term risks to economies. The issue of sustainable development goals and green aspects, risk of hyperinflation, and risk of economic recession are the long-term strategic challenges or risks to economies. Bailout and debt relief were found to be necessary for those countries badly affected by the crisis. Policymakers should facilitate financial policies and should switch from general assistance to targeted support of viable enterprises.