Geopolitical Changes Research Articles

American Presidential Elections 2024: The Core Point of Future Geopolitical Changes

Purpose: This research is focused on the ongoing Russia – Ukraine military conflict, which has already caused some significant changes in foreign policy priorities of major players of international political system. Objective: The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of U.S. 2024 elections to the Russia – Ukraine military conflict outcomes with the aim of analyzing different foreign policy philosophies the two potential candidates have, that can have an effect not only on current Russo-Ukrainian conflict but on the whole global geopolitical situation in the current world. Theoretical Framework: realism as an international relations theory with the system level analysis is used to explain current global geopolitical issues. Method: The issue of methodology is decided according to the necessities of tasks of this article and is mostly based on data analyses, comparison of similarities or differences and case study. Results and Discussion: the current work claims that the major war on the European continent disrupts the core security arrangements which has a shattering effects of unipolar liberal order and how much will this order be changed, is mainly depended on the dedication to it by the U.S.A, European union countries and their liberal democratic allies around the globe. Research Implications: the research findings contribute in raising awareness of the current Ukraine conflict and accumulate the type of knowledge that enriches the political science with theoretical and practical value.

Evaluating the bulk commodities supply risk from the perspective of physical trade

Geopolitical conflicts, trade barriers, and other factors pose great risks to the stable supply of bulk commodities; however, cross-country and inter-temporal assessments and comparisons of various bulk commodity supply risks from the physical trade perspective are still lacking. This gap hinders a holistic understanding of global resource security and further appropriate policy formulation. Based on the Net Positive Import share, the Worldwide Governance Indicator (WGI), and the Bilateral Relationship Indicator which was innovatively quantified using the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) this study evaluated 32 bulk commodity supply risks (including agricultural products, metals, and energy fuels) in China, Japan, and the USA for the period 1992–2019. We found that the three countries have experienced different supply risk evolutions related to their diverse domestic resource endowments and socioeconomic developmental stages. During the study period, China had increasing supply risks for 20 of the 32 bulk commodities compared to 10 for Japan and the USA. The overall bulk commodity supply risk increased substantially for China, remained high for Japan, and remained relatively low for the USA. Under increasing global trade system uncertainty, in addition to the supply diversification strategy, we advise net importer countries to utilise news media data such as GDELT to monitor and analyse geopolitical changes, especially for major suppliers, which would help improve resilience to supply disruptions.

Рецензия на монографию: Животич А. «Балканский фронт» холодной войны: СССР и югославско-албанские отношения. 1945-1968 гг. / отв. ред. А. Б. Едемский. М. – СПб.: Институт славяноведения РАН; Нестор-История, 2022. 288 с.

The reviewed publication sheds light on the history of interstate relations between the USSR, Yugoslavia, and Albania in the postwar period. The author presents these relations in the context of the broad geopolitical changes that the world underwent after the end of World War II. This monograph will be useful for specialists in the modern history of the 20th century, Slavic studies, Balkan studies, as well as all those interested in these areas of historical research.

Change management in healthcare – a scoping literature review

The healthcare sector is constantly changing due to many different factors, both external and internal, such as regulatory, organizational, technological, personnel, financial, and geopolitical change. Change management methods and tools are useful for effectively planning, implementing and monitoring change. The important issue is in which areas and to what extent change management is utilized in healthcare. The aim of this text is therefore to conduct a scoping literature review on change management in healthcare and to develop, based on the results of this research, a theoretical model of determinants and motives for implementing change management in healthcare. A scoping review of the literature was conducted to determine the extent to which change management is applied in healthcare organizations. Texts meeting the inclusion criteria were searched for in four databases: PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and EBSCO. The search was limited to texts published in English. Of the 247 publications screened, 73 met the inclusion criteria. Additionally, 1021 keywords were selected from the screened publications, of which 137 met the inclusion criteria and were approved for the keyword analysis. The keywords formed seven thematic clusters: human, change management, organization and management, leadership, healthcare delivery, hospital management, and productivity. There are a number of motives for using change management in healthcare, and all centre around a few determinants that can be divided into those directly related to the specifics of the healthcare sector and those directly related to management processes. These determinants and motives were included in the theoretical model.

Shaping Language Pedagogy: The Impact of Linguistics, Psychology, and Sociology from the 1880s to the 1980s

The time frame from the 1880s to the 1980s represents a crucial era where foundational ideas in linguistics, psychology, and sociology were established. Major developments in these fields such as the emergence of modern linguistics, establishment of psychology as a distinct scientific discipline, Durkheim’s concept of collective consciousness and societal nature of beliefs, two world wars, and geopolitical changes greatly influenced language teaching methodologies and theories during this time. The impact of these events resulted in changes within school systems, prompting ministries of education to take administrative measures. It also gave rise to the establishment of new organizations like the International Phonetic Association (IPA) and associations for language teachers. The research aims to provide a nuanced understanding of the interconnectedness of linguistics, psychology, and sociology in molding language pedagogy during a crucial period in its historical development. The intersection of these disciplines sheds light on shaping language teaching methodologies and theories, offering insights for educators, researchers, and policymakers in the field of language education.

TRANSFORMATION OF THE RUSSIAN OIL INDUSTRY IN 2022-2023

The article examines the state of Russia’s oil industry over the period 2022 and 2023 as geopolitical changes shifted from one year to the next. The author notes that despite the sanctions pressure, Russia has successfully managed to reorient its oil markets towards Asia. Exports to India are the most actively developing; the ease of transition was due, among other things, to the availability of ready-made business in India: new refineries were built on the coast, for which oil was purchased from the nearest markets. In 2022-2023, India became the largest market for Russian oil delivered by sea. As for supplies via oil pipelines, China remains the largest consumer. Under these conditions, Russian companies have an opportunity use the competition between the countries to their advantage by reducing the discount on their products.The USA used to be the biggest buyer of Russian oil products until 2022, currently this role is taken by Turkiye. The state buys large volumes from Russia and then resells similar volumes to the EU countries. Despite the statements about different origin of oil products, formally the volumes of purchases and sales coincide.A significant role in the supply of Russian resources by sea is played by the shadow fleet, which began operating after the introduction of the «price ceiling». The fleet’s tankers have been bought off the world market by various companies that are registered offshore.There has been no reduction in production and exports due to technical problems caused by sanctions on the supply of equipment and technologies to Russia, or due to the withdrawal of Western oil service companies. Domestic structures quickly managed to establish a system of parallel imports, as well as to find alternative equipment in China.

Analysis of Supply Chain Localization Trends and Discussion of China’s Response Strategies

In the context of the current era, where global economic integration faces obstacles and the trend towards de-globalization intensifies, supply chain localization has become an important strategic choice for multinational corporations to cope with geopolitical changes, pandemic shocks, and the rise of developing countries. For China, which plays the role of the “world’s factory,” supply chain localization can largely be equated with de-Sinicization. Therefore, this paper focuses on the supply chain localization adjustments of multinational corporations in China, not only paying attention to the overall development trend of supply chain localization but also conducting case studies on representative companies situated at different industries and positions within the supply chain. Through in-depth analysis of supply chain layout cases of multinational corporations in various industries in China, this paper reveals the industry characteristics and key influencing factors related to supply chain localization. It also attempts to propose measures that are in line with the current industry status and future development strategies to help the Chinese government and businesses better understand and respond to the comprehensive challenges brought by supply chain localization.

The Shift of Global Political Power from London to Washington (1919-1945): Geopolitics of the Inter-War Period

Executive Summary: The current international order is based on the historical factors that unfolded in the past, one such major historical factor that shaped our current world is the shift of global power from the British Empire to the United States of America. The shift took place in the 20th century due to the unstable and ever-changing circumstances in the geopolitical realm. A host of different factors formed the rise of nationalism in Europe, anti-imperialist sentiments in colonies, and the First World War amongst others had a role to play in the unfolding of the event in question. The inter-war era i.e. the period of 1919-1945 which was the period of peace between the two World Wars could be said to be the most crucial period in this regard. The objective of this paper is to study the shift of political power from London to Washington in the inter-war period and to understand the effects of this seismic geopolitical change on the world at large. This paper will try to examine the shift by analyzing the economic, political, social, and geopolitical realities of the time. The various important events that occurred in the period like the Treaty of Versailles, humiliating conditions placed on Germany, formation of the League of Nations, etc. to understand their direct or indirect impact on the establishment of the United States of America as the global powerhouse that it today and how it first became a contender and them the victor of the cold war. The research uses several different research methods ranging from primary research, secondary sources, and comparative analysis of a few reliable sources that offer insight into the subject.

Реформування міжнародних фінансових організацій в контексті впливу на соціально-економічний розвиток України та Казахстану

The article presents the results of a study on current problems of reforming the international financial architecture under the expanding crisis phenomena of a financial nature and the vulnerability of financial markets and public finances to sharp economies political and geopolitical changes. The meta-statistics are aimed at identifying the main institutional fundamentals of the reform of international financial organizations in the context of the transformation of mutual relations with certain neighboring groups of countries and their impact on the socio-economic development in Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Systematized the main guidelines in the transformation of international financial architecture, such as: reform of certain international organizations; changes in the policy of cooperation between individual countries and international financial organizations, transformation of the latter’s influence; creation of a global institution based on international multilateral agreements; strengthening the regulatory mechanisms of international financial law and increasing the responsibilities of national regulators for the functioning of individual segments of financial markets; facilitating reforms of the global financial architecture to achieve the goals of global development and climate change; creation of new international financial institutions etc. The impact of the reforms of international financial organizations on the socio-economic development of Ukraine and Kazakhstan is manifested in the changes in the directions of Kazakhstan’s and Ukraine’s cooperation with modern international institutions, culminating in the updated policy frameworks and special programs for market reform, in ensuring the stability of the national currency, in the solution of socio-economic problems, in financing the deficit of the sovereign budget and in balancing the balance of payments. The allocation of financial resources of a credit and investment nature is accompanied by recommendations on the institutional development of market economy, reforms of the necessary legal framework, development of the private sector and the shaping of a corporate governance system. A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of Kazakhstan’s and Ukraine’s cooperation with international financial organizations allows us to recognize the vulnerability of both countries’ financial systems to crisis phenomena of a global nature, including through the growth of the foreign debt and their weak positions in terms of the EBRD Financial Market Development Index in 2020 compared to the European countries, which became EU members 2004.

Re-negotiating the Cauvery River Water Dispute in Changing Geopolitics and Ecological Era

For hundreds of years, conflicts in water sharing have existed all around the globe. Cauvery River, in the southern part of India, has been in the midst of such conflict for the last 130 years. The Cauvery conflict between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka resurfaces whenever there's a shortfall in the Southwest Monsoon in the region. Historically, the conflict has been about the right to use water and the states/provinces in conflict have used the water from the river for agricultural purposes. Due to industrialization in the late 1980s and increasing population, water availability in the region has become stressed. The paper is an attempt to analyse the history and recent issue of Cauvery river water dispute. The paper also highlight the climate change that exacerbated the region’s water availability issues. Faltering rainfall has caused unrest in the region, and the traditional methods of water sharing are dwindling under political pressure. The purpose of this paper is to suggest the solution to Cauvery river dispute lies in effective water conservation strategy. Without a climate change strategy, the governments of these states will never be able to solve this complex issue at hand. Here's an in-depth study of historical, political and ecological aspects of this dispute.

Graduate Study with Online Education in the Post-Pandemic Era: An Experiential Case Study

It is important for the human resources industry to have the ability to overcome existing industrial challenges as well as to prepare for the coming challenges impacted by the changing strategic environment. This includes but is not limited to Industry 4.0, VUCA & BANI World, the COVID-19 pandemic, Society 5.0 and changing geopolitics. To be able to deal with more complex problems requires Higher-Order Thinking Skills (HOTS). Therefore, improving HOTS, especially in the human resources industry, requires a solid partnership between industry and academia. The academic partnership will be meaningful in improving HOTS’s ability through a tailored master’s program known as a multi-disciplinary master’s program (MDMP). MDMP improve the HOTS of industry human resources by combining the strengths of academics and industry. This is an action research developed together between industry and academia and performed in several academic projects towards a master’s degree in various fields. It was concluded, based on the results, that MDMP showed promising results toward the improvement of industry human resources, especially in the ability of HOTS.
 Keywords: higher-order thinking skills, academic-industry partnership, multi disciplinary master’s program

DETERMINATION OF STRATEGIC PRIORITIES FOR INLAND WATER TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE

Topicality. In the context of globalization and the growth of international trade, water transport is becoming key to transport infrastructure, especially in Ukraine with its strategic location and river potential. The economic and ecological importance of inland waterway transport is obvious, but its development is held back by a number of challenges, including infrastructure constraints, economic difficulties, environmental requirements and legislative barriers. The relevance of the study lies in the need to analyze these challenges and define strategies to increase the competitiveness and integration of Ukrainian inland water transport into international logistics chains.Aim and tasks. Determine the priority strategic directions for the development of inland water transport of Ukraine, focusing on integration with international networks, adaptation to geopolitical changes, economic efficiency and environmental innovations. Tasks include analyzing the current state, assessing the impact of external factors and formulating recommendations for increasing the competitiveness and sustainable development of the industry, using international experience.Materials and Methods. The research is based on official documents, scientific literature and statistics to analyze the state of the industry and international experience. The methodology combines comparative analysis, expert evaluations and statistical analysis to identify trends. This will help assess the situation in Ukrainian inland water transport and develop recommendations for increasing its efficiency, sustainable development and integration into international logistics networks.Research results. In view of the growing need for efficient and environmentally sustainable transport solutions, the inland water transport of Ukraine shows significant potential for development. Analysis of the current state and international experience indicates a critical need to implement strategic directions aimed at modernization of infrastructure, implementation of environmental standards, development of multimodal transportation, attraction of investments and activation of international integration.Modernizing infrastructure, including upgrading locks, ports and navigation systems, is fundamental to ensuring the safety, efficiency and accessibility of water transport. This will allow Ukraine to increase the carrying capacity of river routes and optimize logistics chains.The introduction of environmental standards and innovations, in particular the use of environmentally friendly fuels and autonomous ships, will help reduce emissions and increase the environmental friendliness of the industry. This corresponds to the global trends of greening of transport and ensures the sustainable development of water transport.The development of multimodal transport, integrating water transport with other types of transport, opens up new opportunities for optimizing cargo flows and increasing the efficiency of the country's transport system.Attracting investments, both domestic and international, is key to the implementation of modernization and innovation projects. Creating a favorable investment climate and state support through incentives and guarantees will be able to accelerate the development of the industry.Activation of international integration through cooperation with international organizations and adaptation to international standards will allow Ukraine to integrate into global transport networks, attract international experience and investments for the development of water transport.The implementation of these strategic directions will require an integrated approach, coordinated work of the government, business and international partners, as well as taking into account the economic and environmental requirements of today.Conclusion. A government program with investment incentives, modernization and environmental innovation is recommended; legislative improvements to support water transport; business investments in the fleet and infrastructure; international support for Ukraine's integration into global networks. Future research should focus on adaptation to global change and private investment strategies.

Praxeological and functional trends in improving the economic integration of the European Union: to the problem statement

This article analyzes the problems and trends of improving the economic integration of the European Union (EU) in modern conditions. It analyzes the key challenges that the EU faces in the process of deepening integration and creating a common market. Carrying out an in-depth review of economic integration in the EU, the article reveals the main challenges facing European leaders and institutions.
 The problems of the international economic integration of European countries into the system of relations of the European Union have recently become more and more urgent. The relevance of the chosen topic is determined by the fact that in the modern world, the problems of economic and international integration have gained importance, integration communities play an increasingly important role in global economic and political processes, accordingly, a constant analysis of their activities is necessary for timely amendments to the current, rapidly changing integration processes.
 First of all, the article focuses on issues of deep integration, such as the single currency - the euro, common fiscal policy and the European budget. The authors analyze how successful these initiatives were and whether they managed to achieve harmonization of the economic policies of all EU member states.
 The second aspect considered in the article is the issue of inequality between regions and countries within the EU. The authors analyze how regional differences in the economy can threaten the stability of the EU and what measures are being taken to reduce these inequalities.
 In addition, the article highlights the external challenges facing the EU in the context of geopolitical changes and global trade relations. It also examines the impact of various factors, such as Brexit and EU enlargement, on integration processes.
 The article highlights key trends such as the strengthening of the role of the euro, the development of the digital single market and the expansion of common rules and regulations. Attention is also drawn to the influence of new members and possible withdrawal from the EU on the integration process.
 The general conclusion of the article is that the economic integration of the European Union remains important and relevant, but requires constant adaptation to changes in the global economic environment. To ensure stability and prosperity, the EU needs to constantly improve its integration strategies and find solutions to the important problems it faces.

Trends in the development of the Institute of judicial power through the prism of scientific works by E. I. Kozlova

The article attempts a chronological analysis of the adoption of normative legal acts that are the source of such an institution of constitutional law of the Russian Federation as the judiciary in order to identify trends in its development. The author, using the theoretical developments of Professor E. I. Kozlova regarding the objective conditionality of the complexity of the structure of the legal institution, the expansion and detailing of constitutional legal norms, tries to identify those factors that lead to the transformation of the legal matter in modern Russia. Recognizing the wellfounded conclusions made by an outstanding scientist back in the Soviet period, the author concludes that the influence of the highlighted E. I. Kozlova considers such a factor as the maturity of public relations for the development of the institution of judicial power in modern conditions, as well as the simplification of the structure of the institution of judicial power in connection with the exclusion from its elemental composition of the Supreme Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation, constitutional (statutory) courts of the subjects of the Russian Federation, which is associated with the ongoing search for an optimal model of judicial power in a transitional stage the development of the Russian state and society and modern geopolitical changes.

Between Peace and Conflict: The Middle East After the Abraham Accords

In 2020, four Arab states - Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan and Morocco - took their first steps toward normalizing relations with Israel with the active US support. This research is an attempt to identify the main incentives which made the Arab states act the way they did, as well as to analyze the situation of the Palestinians amidst the strengthening of relations between Israel and the Arab world. The author also examines how the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which began on October 7, 2023, has affected the established diplomatic, economic, and military ties between the Jewish state and the Arab countries which signed the Abraham Accords. The study concludes that one of the main incentives for Arab states to normalize relations with Israel is the desire to deepen military and technical cooperation with the U.S. At the same time, it would be far-fetched to consider the normalization of relations between the four states and Israel as a step toward regional stabilization, given the reaction of the Palestinians and other Middle Eastern states to the agreements embraced. The reaction reflects the failure to find a common approach to the Middle East peace process as well as the fact that there is no region-widely shared view on shaping a new regional architecture. In this context, it is worth highlighting the situation of the Palestinians, for whom these agreements were a stab in the back and created unfavorable conditions for the establishment of a full-fledged state of Palestine. The study also emphasizes that the future of the “Abraham Accords” and the possibility of their expansion will depend on the development of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, as well as on the readiness of the parties to reach a long-term peaceful settlement. The continuation of the conflict in Gaza would seriously undermine Israel’s image in the Arab world and would certainly undermine the fundamental principles of the Abraham Accords, which would diminish the importance of these agreements. This study offers a valuable perspective on the complex and dynamic relationships in the Middle East region and contributes to understanding the motives and consequences of recent geopolitical changes.

Between West and Non-West - Turkey at a Crossroad of Geostrategic Choice

Historically, the Republic of Turkey is one of the few states in the Middle East, in a civilizational sense, located between East and West. As time has passed since a number of unsuccessful attempts to integrate into Western institutions and with the beginning of geopolitical changes in the international arena, Turkey has made a “pivot to the East”. Considering the increasing role of the Non-West within the framework of the formation of a polycentric system of international relations, the study of Turkey as one of the key centers of forces of our time, as well as the identification of its characteristics, eastern and western features, is of particular relevance. The purpose of the study is to examine the civilizational characteristics of modern Turkey. By applying civilizational approach, Turkey’s position of a “middle state” was revealed, which has both Western and Eastern features, but is increasingly gravitating towards the non-Western world. At the same time, amid the ideology of “neo-Ottomanism” implemented by the current leadership and the increasing role of the ideological and value factor, Western features are gradually fading away, remaining only in the form of official secularism and stable ties with Western institutions. While the Turkish orientality, along with unofficial islamization, have a clearer image. Turkey develops in progressive-regressive cycles, where the Western cycle is replaced by the Eastern and vice versa. However, the West is systematically ceasing to be a symbol of progress. The authors conclude that the non-Western path of development is the most promising for modern Turkey, however, with the condition that eastern development will not be moderated by Islamist circles and supporters of political Islam.

Impact of the armed conflict in Ukraine on rail freight between Asia and Europe

In 2021, the rail freight industry proved its competitiveness despite the restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. In the segment of rail freight transport between Asia and Europe, this was achieved by positive transport results. Container transport in international rail traffic was increased. The railways carried out work on the development and organization of the transport of high-capacity containers in international traffic, including the organization of container block trains in the Eurasian space. The year 2022 has brought about fundamental changes in the perception of safety and the role of rail transport in traffic between Asia and Europe. An unexpected armed conflict caused chaos in trade, production and transport. In the corridors connecting Asia with Europe, problems arose, supply chains were disrupted. The geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe remains tense and unpredictable. This results in lasting consequences for production, supply and demand chains, transport corridors in the Eurasian space. This also applies to rail transport as part of the New Silk Road concept. The aim of this article is to provide a synthetic analysis of the impact of geopolitical changes and the armed conflict in Ukraine on the functioning of the Silk Railroad and transport volumes in rail freight traffic between Asia and Europe. The above analysis was carried out on the basis of research on secondary sources and available source materials obtained from OSJD member countries that participate in rail transport on the Silk Road.

Transnationalising Malay Cinema: P. Ramlee in Hong Kong

This article investigates P. Ramlee's little-known attempt at transnationalising Malay cinema in the early 1960s. Using biographical records, newspaper reports and film magazines, I trace the star's earliest direct contact with Hong Kong cinema, his plans to make Malay films in Hong Kong, the controversy that ensued, and the outcomes of these grand plans. Situating this episode in its historical context, this article unsettles standard narratives of P. Ramlee, and Malay and Malaysian film histories. It demonstrates that, as opposed to the seemingly inevitable ethnonational route, and in contrast to the hypernationalist characterisation of P. Ramlee today, a transnational model was once envisioned through P. Ramlee as a potential future for Malay cinema in the face of tumultuous geopolitical changes. It also brings to light the complex role that labour activism played in shaping post-studio era development of Malay cinema, and the roots of Malaysian national cinema.

RUSSIA’S “SOFT POWER” IN KAZAKHSTAN: CULTURAL AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS

Despite the ongoing geopolitical changes in the modern world, the policy of using “soft power” remains the focus of attention of researchers. The article analyzes the role of Russian “soft power” in Kazakhstan. The author focuses on the cultural and economic aspects of the problem. The key criterion for the success of “soft power” is its attractiveness. Based on this quality, the author analyzes such “soft power” resources as education, the spread of the Russian language, touches on historical memory and emphasizes the importance of economic resources. The article also examines the interest in the region, in particular in Kazakhstan, from foreign countries that are increasing their stay here using the mechanisms of “soft power”.

The impact of geopolitics on international student mobility: The Chinese students' perspective

AbstractIn the last few years, international student mobility has been disrupted not only by the global health crisis resulting from the outbreak of the COVID‐19 pandemic but also adversely affected by the rise of geopolitics. The worsening relationship between China and its western counterparts led by the United States and its allies has significantly influenced students' motivation and plan for overseas education. Based upon interviews with 75 students from leading universities in mainland China, this article examines how Chinese elite students evaluate the impact of the new geopolitics on their overseas study plans and opportunities. The study found that, due to the influence of scientific internationalism ideas and institutional habitus, interviewees underestimated the impact of geopolitical factors. Furthermore, unpleasant environmental factors (such as racial discrimination) caused by geopolitical changes are tolerable because most of the interviewees plan to return China after studying abroad. On the other hand, deterioration of Sino‐US relations has substantially affected Chinese students' international mobility. Many interviewees, especially those majoring in science and engineering, were unable to obtain visas. Some of them gave up their study abroad plans, while others transferred to other study abroad destination countries such as the United Kingdom and Singapore. We also find that the perception of the power shift in the field of higher education shapes the students' decision making. This article critically reflects upon the international student mobility from the broader political economy perspective, discussing policy implications for future international education.