Geophysical Agency Research Articles

Neural Network on Tsunami Waves Prediction Detector Tools Using Tectonic Earthquakes Data

On 26 December 2004, tsunami waves were generated by undersea megathrust earthquakes particularly hit the Banda Aceh-Indonesia, also Thailand, Sri Lanka, India. The effect of tsunami waves can be very damaging to the coastal areas even more to the land around the coast. It is very interesting to study the relation between the magnitude of the undersea earthquakes and the tsunami. Therefore, we construct an early warning system using Neural Network to predict the tsunami using data from Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency that integrated with a hardware tool. The hardware tools will show the prediction result and send a short message.

Perencanaan Enterprise Architecture Pelayanan Informasi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika

The importance of the research was carried out because of the increasing public demand for Information and Communication Technology (ICT) assisted information system services at the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The expansion aims to be done with the concept of Enterprise Architecture (EA) which includes the pattern of The Open Group Architecture Framework (TOGAF) which has provided Architecture Development Method (ADM). The method approach used is design research which includes service concepts, architectural design, and the feasibility blueprint for computer-aided information systems in the future. The instrument used was through observation sheets, interview guides and documentation to gather planning information, and using a product questionnaire involving 5 experts consisting of 3 ICT lecturers and 2 business managers, while the practicality test involved 5 respondents. The study took place in BMKG Padang Panjang, West Sumatra Province, from June to September 2019. The data analysis technique in this study used descriptive analysis techniques. This study has produced a design that meets the criteria set out by the standard validity and practicality tests. Based on the results of tests conducted by experts (validator), it was found that the information system service blueprint was feasible to be built with 92% and 82% acceptance of the very valid category in the very practical category. because it is proven valid and practical.

ARSITEKTUR ENTERPRISE PADA BMKG DENGAN FRAMEWORK TOGAF ADM

As a government institution that performs tasks in the fields of meteorology, climatology, air quality and geophysics, BMKG (Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency) does not yet have an integrated information system to support each of its activities, such as instrumentation, engineering and calibration, observation, processing, dissemination, and service. The purpose of this study is to produce enterprise architecture design including business architecture, data architecture, technology architecture, and application architecture, and produce activity solutions and information system solutions that can help BMKG in developing its business processes. In this study, the framework of enterprise architecture design uses The Open Group Framework (TOGAF) with the Architecture Development Method (ADM) method. The results of this study, namely a proposed TOGAF model that is tailored to the business needs process of BMKG in designing enterprise architecture for IS / IT development.

Analysis of H/V Ratio Curve to Estimate Seismic Hazard Vulnerability in Lombok Island, West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia


 
 
 In 2018, Lombok Island was hit by a series of destructive earthquakes. According to Indonesian Meteo- rological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency data, about 1,973 felt earthquakes (M > 3) which shaken Lombok were recorded during August 2018 with three earthquakes with the largest magnitude of 6.9 Mw, 6.8 Mw, and 6.2 Mw. National Board for Disaster Management reported about 555 deaths, 1,833 people injured, and 186,010 houses damaged as a result of Lombok earthquake on August 5th, 2018. A number of seismometers were placed on Lombok Island from August 3rd, 2018 to October 19th, 2018 to monitor the aftershock events. There are 17 stations that record seismicity in Lombok consisting of 10 broadband sensors and 7 short period sensors. In this study, we used the Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) method to analyze the risk of earthquake in the Lombok region. The basic concept of this method is to do a comparison between the horizontal component spectrum and the vertical component spectrum of a wave, where theoretically the particle movement of the horizontal component is greater than the particle movement of the vertical component on soft ground, whereas on the hard ground both components (horizontal and vertical) will be similar. H/V curve obtained from earthquake record- ings (Earthquake Horizontal-to-Vertical Ratio/EHVR) and H/V curve obtained from microtremor recordings (Microtremor Horizontal-to-Vertical Ratio/MHVR) shows good agreement and high correlation. Empirical correction of EMR (Earthquake-to-Microtremor Ratio) managed to decrease the difference of estimation of predominant frequency and amplification factor between EHVR and MHVR. Predominant frequency, amplification, and seismic vulnerability map agree with the geological condition of Lombok Island, where high value of amplification and seismic vulnerability was found on soft and thick ground. This study conclude that the maximum ground acceleration and the construction of the building should also considered when one wants to investigate the effect of an earthquake to the damage occurred, beside the site effects. 
 
 

Correlation Study between Elevation, Population Density, and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Kendari City in 2014–2018

BACKGROUND: The incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) has experienced rapid development throughout the world in recent decades. Indonesia was reported as the 2nd country with the largest DHF cases among 30 endemic countries. Dengue virus can develop properly based on certain regional conditions. The elevation is an important factor that can affect the presence of dengue vector mosquitoes. High population density contributes to dengue transmission by increasing the contact between infected mosquitoes and human hosts.
 AIM: This study aimed to determine the correlation between elevation and population density with the incidence of dengue in Kendari City in 2014–2018.
 METHODS: This research is an observational analytic study with ecological study design. Data incidence of DHF in 2014–2018, elevation and population density were respectively obtained from the Health Office of Kendari City, Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency of Kendari City, Statistics Agency of Kendari City. The analysis of the data used in the study is univariate and bivariate analysis. Bivariate analysis using Pearson correlation test was performed.
 RESULTS: The results showed that the correlation between elevation and DHF (p = 0.014, r = 0.339) and the correlation between population density and DHF (p = 0.186).
 CONCLUSION: It can be concluded that there is significant correlation with positive direction between elevation and the DHF, and there is no significant correlation between population density and DHF incidence in Kendari City in 2014–2018.

Partnership in Weather Observation using the Crowdsourcing Method

Proper weather observation is definitely required to obtain the right and accurate weather information. Currently the weather observation in Indonesia is managed by various parties and coordinated by the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). BMKG manage weather observation networks that distributed nationwide. Unfortunately, in terms of quantity and distribution, the current weather observation network is not ideal yet. Increasing the density of the weather observation network is undoubtly needed, therefore BMKG needs to develop a partnership with all parties including general public. This study attempts to identify level of participation of general public and find the ideal partnership model for weather observation in Indonesia. Three partnership variables, namely motivation, consistency and sustainability, examined in this study. As a result of the data analysis it was found that the level of participation of general public is very high especially in the participant group that threat with guidance. And it was also found that the crowdsourcing method can be implemented as an ideal partnership model between BMKG and general public in the field of weather observation.

Temperature Forecast Using Ridge Regression as Model Output Statistics

Over the past few years, BMKG (Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency) in Indonesia has used numerical weather forecasting techniques, namely Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). However, the NWP forecast still has a high bias because it is only measured on a global scale and unable to capture the dynamics of atmosphere (Wilks, 2007). Hence, this study implements Ridge Regression as Model Output Statistics (MOS) for temperature forecast. This study uses the maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) observation at 4 stations in Indonesia as the response variables and NWP as the predictor variable. The results show that the performance of the model based on Root Mean Square Error of Prediction (RMSEP) is considered to be good and intermediate. The RMSEP for Tmax in all stations is intermediate (0.9-1.2), Tmin in all stations is good (0.5-0.8). The prediction result from Ridge Regression is more accurate than the NWP model and able to correct up to 90.49% of the biased NWP for Tmax forecasting.

Analisis rencana strategis pemerintah kabupaten banyuwangi dalam penanggulangan bencana alam

Strategic plan is series of stages rational thought to produce an effective strategy. The purpose to know strategy of Banyuwangi Regency Government in response natural disasters through strategic plan (Renstra). Research Methods use qualitative descriptive approach and data analysis use content analysis to analyze document of regional disaster Management Agency (BPBD) Banyuwangi Regency Year 2019-2021 use Vision of Success Approach from Bryson. The results show that the vision of the National Medium-Term Development is used as a reference for Banyuwangi Regency BPBD Strategic Plan in dealing with natural disasters at local level. This is also supported by the vision of selected regional heads who are committed to providing public services including disaster services on aspects of natural disaster risk reduction and optimization of natural disaster emergency response management. In addition, strategies to manage disaster issues are optimizing organizational management and strengthening the tasks and functions of disaster management comprehensively. However, the process of strategic planning stages there is still no systematic schedule and communication still relies on disaster information from the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency. BPBD Strategic Plan is local governments guideline to take disaster policies so that the documents compiled by BPBD must be complete and comprehensive. DOI: 10.26905/pjiap.v5i1.3607

DESAIN BANGUNAN PANTAI SEAWALL TERHADAP TINGGI GELOMBANG (STUDI KASUS PANTAI PADANG)

Padang Beach is one of the beaches in Sumatra that have an abrasion. Abrasion causes damage to public facilities in the region, the purpose of this research is to design a seawall beach building in the city of Padang Beach. The implementation method of research used with primary data processing is a direct field survey (Hs and Ts) while secondary data using wind data analysis methods, and the analysis of tidal data. Secondary data on this research is the wind data taken for 10 years (2010-2019) obtained from the Meteorological and Geophysical Agency of Meteorology (BMKG) and tidal data taken over the last 5 years (2015-2019) obtained from PT. Pelabuhan Indonesia II of Teluk Bayur. The outcome of the seawall research calculation has a length of 22.58 m, landmark elevation 5.31 m, and the building elevation of 9.31 m, the peak width of 4 m. Weight of seawall protective unit W = 4.152 tons, W/10 = 415.2 kg, W/200 = 21 kg, and the protective sum of each 10 m2 as much as 11 pieces.

Pemanfaatan Data Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) dan Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) untuk Deteksi Kekeringan Meteorologis di Provinsi Papua Barat

Kekeringan merupakan salah satu bencana alam di Indonesia. Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) melaporkan bahwa Provinsi Papua Barat memiliki ancaman kekeringan yang sedang hingga tinggi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis tingkat kekeringan di Provinsi Papua Barat menggunakan data Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) dan metode Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sepanjang tahun 2019 di Papua Barat tidak terjadi kekeringan meteorologis, hanya beberapa wilayah di Kabupaten Kaimana yang agak kering pada SPI bulan Januari – Maret 2019. Secara umum data GPM dan metode SPI memiliki akurasi yang cukup baik dalam menggambarkan tingkat kekeringan meteorologis di Provinsi Papua Barat dibandingkan dengan analisis data hujan dan peta tingkat kekeringan yang dirilis oleh Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), sehingga data GPM dan metode SPI dapat digunakan untuk memantau tingkat kekeringan di Provinsi Papua Barat khususnya pada kawasan pertanian.

Sunlight exposure increased Covid-19 recovery rates: A study in the central pandemic area of Indonesia

This study aims to present the correlation between sunlight exposure and Covid-19 statuses in Jakarta, Indonesia. The secondary data analysis was derived from surveillance data for Covid-19 from government authorities, including the Ministry of Health, the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency, and the local government of Jakarta. Three statuses related to Covid-19 were examined in the study: incidence, death, and recovered. Meanwhile, sunlight exposure was presented as daily duration of it. Only the number of recovered patients correlated significantly with sunlight exposure (p-value = .025; r = 0.350). This study's findings showed that sunlight exposure was associated with recovery from Covid-19.

Dispersion of tongka langit banana in Buru and Seram, Maluku Province, Indonesia, based on topographic and climate factors

Abstract. Saiya HG, Hiariej A, Pesik A, Kaya E, Hehanussa ML, Puturuhu F. 2020. Dispersion of tongka langit banana in Buru and Seram, Maluku Province, Indonesia, based on topographic and climate factors. Biodiversitas 21: 2035-2046. The aim of this research is to understand the dispersion of tongka langit banana as one of the important endemic species in Maluku and also to know the topographic and climate factors hypothetically influencing the dispersion of tongka langit banana. The associated environmental factors are an initial approach that can be used to assess why the species only exists in certain locations. The data of coordinates were collected from survey activity; meanwhile, the slope and contour data were from the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM); and the climate data were from Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency through statistic data publication. Then, all data were analyzed using Remote Sensing and GIS methods. The results showed that in Buru Island, tongka langit bananas were found in four locations, with climate condition was rather wet and found on slope grade of 0-8% and 8-15%. Whereas in Seram Island, tongka langit bananas were found in fifteen locations, with wet climate conditions, and on the same condition of slope as those found in Buru island.

Pemetaan Potensi Bahaya Gempa Bumi di Provinsi Papua Barat Menggunakan Metode Percepatan Tanah Maksimum dan Point Source Analysis

Earthquakes are one of the main hazards in West Papua. Based on information from the National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB), the frequency of the destroyed earthquakes in West Papua is more than 9 times from 2002 until 2015. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is one factor that caused destroy on earthquakes. This parameter has been used in this research to estimate the level of earthquakes hazard in West Papua at any period that combined with Point Source analysis and Gumbel distributions method. Seismic data recording of 1970 – 2017 that obtained from Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) and United States Geological Survey (USGS) used in this research. The research shows that the level of earthquakes in West Papua is lower to the middle because the PGA value is < 0,70 g at any period. Generally, the level of earthquakes hazards in the north area more higher than in other areas because of some of the fault in the north area.

Rain detection in image using convolutional neural network

Weather is a phenomenon occurs in the earth’s atmosphere. Weather affects human daily activities, especially outdoor activities. Weather observations including rainfall observation in Indonesia conducted by Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG). BMKG facing a major problem in terms of rainfall data spatial density. The insufficient amount and unevenly distributed rainfall measurement instrument, are two main factors contributing to rainfall data special density problems. One of the very prominent methods to gain a larger amount of rainfall measurement location is using the image obtained from existing Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) spread over vast areas, especially in the Jakarta region. The approach to recognize and classify the rainfall in a certain area from the CCTV image used in this research is the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) method. The image data was taken from CCTV located in Kamal, Kalideres, West Jakarta. The images taken is split into two categories, the one that shows a rainy day and the one that shows a clear day. These two categories of images will be used as sample data to train CNN, an effort to obtain a suitable model. By using the CNN method, it’s possible to recognize and classify the rainfall condition within an image based on the model. Python is an open-source programming language that widely used nowadays to run CNN. The image classification using this CNN, scored approximately 98.30% of accuracy, which means that the model is optimal to recognize and classify rainfall conditions in a certain area based on the CCTV images.

The Possibly of the November-December 2018 earthquakes caused by hydrothermal in the Mamasa and surrounding areas derived by the earthquake relocation data

During the last two months in 2018, 761 earthquakes occur in Mamasa Region, west Celebes. These earthquakes are not lying in known active faults in Celebes and not have mainshock. About 287 earthquakes felt by local society. Mapping for detailed seismicity in this region is crucial to know the source of this earthquake sequence. The Inversion from arrival time catalog was performed to derive the 1-D local velocity model. The initial velocity model is obtained by combining ak135 for spherical average structure and local velocity model in Palu Koro Region that has been studied previously. The new local velocity model was used to compute double-difference relocation, while data input was arrival time catalog from Meteorological Climatological and geophysical agency. We successfully relocate 752 earthquakes with fine residual value 0 until 0.032 seconds. The trend of this earthquake sequence was spread but the main linearization is N 80 W, but it still makes a trend from a 48-degree dip angle. With the number of earthquakes in a narrow area and shallow depth within a short period of time, it should be suspected that there is a contact between faults and hot springs in the area so that these earthquakes can occur.

Ground motion prediction equation for West Sumatra due to distant shallow crustal, interface, andiIntraslab warthquakes

Ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) is an important component for seismic hazard study to minimize the casualty from an earthquake, especially in the building collapse. This study presents ground motion prediction equation for West Sumatra due to distant shallow crustal, interface, and intraslab earthquakes. The data sets consist of 375 strong motion data that are recorded by Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency’s (BMKG) accelerograph sensors that located in West Sumatra, earthquake parameter data are from BMKG’s earthquakes catalog with the range moment magnitude of 4.0-6.4 and recorded at sites with hypocentral distance of 17 – 1000 km, focal mechanism data are from Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT), and use site classification to enhance the quality of the results. This study shows good results with the standard deviation of residual value of 0.23 for shallow crustal, 0.29 for interface, and 0.49 for intraslab earthquakes.

Seasonal Variation and Age-Related Changes in Semen Quality of Limousin Bull in Indonesian Artificial Insemination Center

The objective of this study was to determine the effect of season and age on semen quality (individual motility, mass motility, concentration, volume, pre-freeze motility, and post-thaw motility) of Limousin Bull under the tropical condition in Indonesian artificial insemination center. This study used a large data set recorded over eight years (2011 until 2018) of production period (n = 6758 ejaculates, n = 19 bulls) retrieved from Singosari National Artificial Insemination Center. Rainfall and other climatic data were collected from Malang Meteorological, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency, Indonesia. Seasonal effect was grouped into three groups, i.e. rainy season (total rainfall per month >200mm), humid season (total rainfall per month = 100-200 mm), and dry season (total rainfall per month <100). Bull age is grouped into seven groups (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8). Data were analyzed using Mixed Model procedure classifying effect of season and age on fixed effect and bull as a random effect. Season had a highly significant effect on individual motility, pre-freeze motility, and post-thaw motility (P<0.001), and did not have a significant effect on concentration, volume, pH, and mass motility. Individual motility, pre-freeze motility, and post-thaw motility were highest in the rainy season and declined in the dry season. Bull age had a highly significant effect on individual motility, concentration, volume, pre-freeze motility, and post-thaw motility (P<0,001). Bull age did not have a significant effect on mass motility and pH. Two- and three-years old bulls have superior individual motility and concentration. However, it is decreasing at age three until eight years old. The lowest volume was at age two and increased gradually until age eight. Meanwhile, pre-freeze motility and post-thaw motility increased at two to five years old and then declined until eight years old.

Climate Change Represented by Seasonal Rainfall, Temperature, and Wind Speed Trends in North Coastal of Java, Indonesia: Implications on Marine Capture Fisheries

Climate change poses a significant threats to the livelihoods of people living in coastal areas, especially in the developing world. Consequently, locally relevant data are necessary to inform for livelihood adaptation planning. This study provides empirical information on historical and future seasonal climate trends based on observation and modeling. Modeling is a necessary tool for assessing future impacts of climate change. This study focuses in the North Coastal of Java, which is one of the most vulnerable regions of Indonesia, and where communities are highly dependent on capture fisheries. This paper presents information for historical and future seasonal climate trends in Northern Coast Regional of Java (NCRJ), Indonesia, where livelihoods are highly vulnerable to current climate change. Historical climate trend is investigated using observational data from two climate stations in NCJ, which are Tegal Station of Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency (Tegal SMCGA) and Semarang Station of Climatological and Geophysical Agency (Semarang SMCGA) from 1978 - 2017. Future climate is examined using a climate time trends model and predicted to 2100. Changes in temperature and wind speed of the NCJ are influenced by time and are expected to continue to increase every year. Temperature is suggested to increase by around 0.024 and 0.035, while wind speed also increased by 0.052. Temperature and wind speed changes that continue to increase each year indicate that the NCRJ is one of the coastal areas in Indonesia vulnerable to the climate change effects.

Spatiotemporal Vulnerability To Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Incidence In Semarang, Indonesia

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a disease caused by a virus carried by the Aedes aegypti mosquito which is a serious problem in the city of Semarang. This study aimed to analyze the vulnerability of the region to the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) Semarang. The study conducted in 2019 using secondary data from Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), the Central Statistics Agency, and the Semarang City Health Office. Regional vulnerability determined by the weighted overlay method. This research used descriptive analytic method with spatial approach. DHF vulnerability identified based on indicators of air temperature, air humidity, rainfall, larval free numbers, endemicity, and population density. The level of vulnerability of the area to the incidence of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) in Semarang City showed that 14.1% of the urban area in the city of Semarang categorized as not vulnerable, 53.1% vulnerable, and 32.8% very vulnerable

Identifying Criteria for Designing Risk Communication System in Palu, Sulawesi, Indonesia

The 2018 Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami in Indonesia signaled the failure of a risk communication system, causing Indonesia to be accused of mishandling the natural disaster. Many criticisms focused on allegations that the country’s meteorology and geophysics agency canceled the tsunami alert too early and misinformed public, that the sirens weren’t operable to warn local people, the tidal buoys did not work to send the tsunami signal, consequently, causing casualties. Improving the risk communication system raises the following question: what are the criteria for designing a risk communication system for areas in the disaster-prone zone? This paper employs multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) as a framework that is integrated with the combination of technical and cultural risk communication to provide such an answer. As for the findings, this study includes sixteen indicators that are distributed among nine criteria of a risk communication system within two types of measurement: qualitative and quantitative. It suggests that a risk communication system shall work better on a two-way process. Stakeholders’ and decision-makers’ involvement and public participation are required to make better decisions because it leads to better awareness of risks and greater acceptance of risk management strategies that are jointly agreed upon.