Climate Change Represented by Seasonal Rainfall, Temperature, and Wind Speed Trends in North Coastal of Java, Indonesia: Implications on Marine Capture Fisheries

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threats to the livelihoods of people living in coastal areas, especially in the developing world. Consequently, locally relevant data are necessary to inform for livelihood adaptation planning. This study provides empirical information on historical and future seasonal climate trends based on observation and modeling. Modeling is a necessary tool for assessing future impacts of climate change. This study focuses in the North Coastal of Java, which is one of the most vulnerable regions of Indonesia, and where communities are highly dependent on capture fisheries. This paper presents information for historical and future seasonal climate trends in Northern Coast Regional of Java (NCRJ), Indonesia, where livelihoods are highly vulnerable to current climate change. Historical climate trend is investigated using observational data from two climate stations in NCJ, which are Tegal Station of Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency (Tegal SMCGA) and Semarang Station of Climatological and Geophysical Agency (Semarang SMCGA) from 1978 - 2017. Future climate is examined using a climate time trends model and predicted to 2100. Changes in temperature and wind speed of the NCJ are influenced by time and are expected to continue to increase every year. Temperature is suggested to increase by around 0.024 and 0.035, while wind speed also increased by 0.052. Temperature and wind speed changes that continue to increase each year indicate that the NCRJ is one of the coastal areas in Indonesia vulnerable to the climate change effects.