Geomagnetically Induced Currents Research Articles

Forecasting Geomagnetic Storm Disturbances and Their Uncertainties Using Deep Learning

AbstractSevere space weather produced by disturbed conditions on the Sun results in harmful effects both for humans in space and in high‐latitude flights, and for technological systems such as spacecraft or communications. Also, geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) flowing on long ground‐based conductors, such as power networks, potentially threaten critical infrastructures on Earth. The first step in developing an alarm system against GICs is to forecast them. This is a challenging task given the highly non‐linear dependencies of the response of the magnetosphere to these perturbations. In the last few years, modern machine‐learning models have shown to be very good at predicting magnetic activity indices. However, such complex models are on the one hand difficult to tune, and on the other hand they are known to bring along potentially large prediction uncertainties which are generally difficult to estimate. In this work we aim at predicting the SYM‐H index characterizing geomagnetic storms multiple‐hour ahead, using public interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data from the Sun‐Earth L1 Lagrange point and SYM‐H data. We implement a type of machine‐learning model called long short‐term memory (LSTM) network. Our scope is to estimate the prediction uncertainties coming from a deep‐learning model in the context of forecasting the SYM‐H index. These uncertainties will be essential to set reliable alarm thresholds. The resulting uncertainties turn out to be sizable at the critical stages of the geomagnetic storms. Our methodology includes as well an efficient optimization of important hyper‐parameters of the LSTM network and robustness tests.

Nighttime Geomagnetic Response to Jumps of Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure: A Possible Cause of Québec Blackout in March 1989

AbstractBy performing a global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, we investigated magnetic disturbances on the ground at high‐latitudes in response to jumps in the solar wind dynamic pressure, namely a sudden commencement (SC). After the arrival of the jump, a pair of field‐aligned currents (FACs), related to the preliminary impulse, develop and travel in the anti‐sunward direction. Soon after another pair related to the main impulse (MI) appears and travels in the anti‐sunward direction. The horizontal ionospheric current associated with the MI remains strong when propagating to the nightside. On the dawnside the MI current flows sunward (anti‐sunward) resulting in northward (southward) ground magnetic disturbance at higher (lower) latitude in the post‐midnight sector. These features are similar to those observed in Canada in the high‐latitude post‐midnight sector when the Québec blackout took place on 13 March 1989. The nighttime geomagnetic perturbations associated with the MI occur regardless of the magnitude of the solar wind dynamic pressure and IMF orientation. The amplitude of the geoelectric field, which is closely related to the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), reaches the maximum value just before and around the maximum of the southward magnetic disturbance. This is consistent with the moment at which the blackout occurred during the southward magnetic perturbation. We suggest that the blackout in Québec could be caused by the MI‐associated Hall current passing over the Hydro‐Québec power system on the nightside. The nighttime polar region is shown to be sensitive to hazardous GICs for large‐amplitude jumps in the solar wind dynamic pressure.

Power system harmonic analysis with real geomagnetically induced current from the 2003 halloween storm

It is well understood that geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) flow through the grounded neutrals of wye-connected transformers, generating harmonic currents that flow along frequency-dependent transmission lines. Harmonic currents affect protection systems and cause harmonic voltage drops that disturb power system voltage stability. In the literature, GICs are modelled as dc-currents for harmonic analysis. However, GICs are multi-frequency currents having both positive and negative polarities. Therefore, a representative harmonic analysis of power systems is only possible when GICs are modelled as multi-frequency AC currents. In this paper, the authors subjected a multi-machine power system model to real GICs from the 2003 halloween storm. Representative time intervals within the storm were selected, and a harmonic analysis of transmission line and generator stator currents was carried out. The results showed that the harmonic spectrum of currents fluctuated with a real GIC instead of reaching a steady state with a DC model for GIC. Moreover, harmonics induced on generator windings increase the risk of dynamic voltage and power system instability. The results confirm the susceptibility of power system generators to GICs and validate the use of synthetic GIC for modelling the effect of power system stability.

Improved Model for GIC Calculation in the Mexican Power Grid

AbstractWe present the first observations of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in the Mexican power grid and an improved model to calculate them. The new model comprises ca. 250 substations working at various voltage levels, a methodology to estimate geomagnetic disturbances (δB) at different points throughout the Mexican territory, and a 1D piecewise model that considers lateral variations in the ground conductivity. This is an improvement of a former uniform conductivity model presented previously to calculate our first GIC estimates (Caraballo et al., 2020). We compared the observed and calculated GIC between August and November 2021 at a coastal 400 kV substation. During this interval, five geomagnetic storms occurred (G1 and G2). The observed GIC exceeded 10 A during the most strong event; this shows a clear grid response even under weak geomagnetic perturbations that occurred during the solar minimum. Further comparison with the results of the former model suggests that the new 1D piecewise model yields better GIC estimates for the Mexican power grid.

Space Weather Disturbances in Non‐Stormy Times: Occurrence of dB/dt Spikes During Three Solar Cycles

AbstractSpatio‐temporal variations of ionospheric currents cause rapid magnetic field variations at ground level and Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) that can be harmful for human infrastructure. The risk for large excursions in the magnetic field time derivative, “dB/dt spikes”, is known to be high during geomagnetic storms and substorms. However, less is known about the occurrence of spikes during non‐stormy times. We use data from ground‐based globally covering magnetometers (SuperMAG database) from the years 1985–2021. We investigate the spike occurrence (|dB/dt| > 100 nT/min) as a function of magnetic local time (MLT), magnetic latitude (Mlat), and the solar cycle phases during non‐stormy times (−15 nT ≤ SYM‐H < 0). We sort our data into substorm (AL < 200 nT) intervals (“SUB”) and less active intervals between consecutive substorms (“nonSUB”). We find that spikes commonly occur in both SUBs and nonSUBs during non‐stormy times (3–23 spikes/day), covering 18–12 MLT and 65°–80° Mlat. This also implies a risk for infrastructure damage during non‐stormy times, especially when several spikes occur nearby in space and time, possibly causing infrastructure weathering. We find that spikes are more common in the declining phase of the solar cycle, and that the occurrence of SUB spikes propagates from one midnight to one morning hotspot with ∼10 min in MLT for each minute in universal time (UTC). Finally, we discuss causes for the spikes in terms of spatio‐temporal variations of ionospheric currents.

Database of geomagnetically induced currents in the main transmission line “Northern Transit”

Database containing the results of measurements of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) for the period of 2011 to 2022 in transformer neutrals at three 330 kV substations of the main power transmission lines “Northern Transit” passing through the territory of the Republic of Karelia, Murmansk and Leningrad regions has been created and is publicly available. The GIC value depends on the geoelectric field magnitude in the Earth surface, on the relative position of the substations to which the power transmission lines are connected, and on the resistance of electrical network elements. Important factors are the electrical network branching, which determines paths of induced current spreading, and the network topology at the time of monitoring data acquisition. We describe the structure and principles of functioning of the Russian unique regional monitoring system of geomagnetically induced currents in the electrical network. We demonstrate the features of the data contained in the GIC database, which must be taken into account when processing and analyzing the data. Examples of using the GIC database for energy and geophysical studies are given. The work performed on the organization of continuous monitoring of GIC at substations of the main power transmission line in the Arctic zone has no analogues in the Russian Federation and provides extensive original material that allows us to study geomagnetic disturbances and their impact on electrical networks. The database is available at [http://gic.en51.ru]

Case study of the Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) along a hypothetical overhead Aluminum Conductor Steel Reinforced (ACSR) during active geomagnetic storms in Egypt

Case study of the Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) along a hypothetical overhead Aluminum Conductor Steel Reinforced (ACSR) during active geomagnetic storms in Egypt

База данных геоиндуцированных токов в магистральной электрической сети «Северный транзит»

Database containing the results of measurements of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) for the period of 2011 to 2022 in transformer neutrals at three 330 kV substations of the main power transmission lines “Northern Transit” passing through the territory of the Republic of Karelia, Murmansk and Leningrad regions has been created and is publicly available. The GIC value depends on the geoelectric field magnitude in the Earth surface, on the relative position of the substations to which the power transmission lines are connected, and on the resistance of electrical network elements. Important factors are the electrical network branching, which determines paths of induced current spreading, and the network topology at the time of monitoring data acquisition. We describe the structure and principles of functioning of the Russian unique regional monitoring system of geomagnetically induced currents in the electrical network. We demonstrate the features of the data contained in the GIC database, which must be taken into account when processing and analyzing the data. Examples of using the GIC database for energy and geophysical studies are given. The work performed on the organization of continuous monitoring of GIC at substations of the main power transmission line in the Arctic zone has no analogues in the Russian Federation and provides extensive original material that allows us to study geomagnetic disturbances and their impact on electrical networks. The database is available at [http://gic.en51.ru].

Toward a simple topological model of a three-phase transformer including deep saturation conditions

PurposeThis paper aims to propose a method of parametrizing topological transformer model at high flux densities in the core.Design/methodology/approachThe approach proposed is based on terminal voltages and currents measured in a special purpose saturation test whose data are combined with typical saturation curves of grain-oriented electrical steels; the modeling is carried out in the ATPDraw program.FindingsThe authors corroborate experimentally the necessity of dividing the zero sequence impedance between all transformer phases and propose a method of the individual representation of the legs and yokes. This eliminates the use of nonexistent leakage inductances of primary and secondary windings.Practical implicationsThe presented modeling approach can be used for predicting inrush current events and in the evaluation of the impact caused by geomagnetically induced currents (GICs).Originality/valueThe proposed approach is completely original and will contribute to a better understanding of the transients occurring in a transformer under abnormal conditions, such as inrush current events and GICs.

Investigating Harmonic Distortion in Power Transformers Due to Geomagnetically Induced Current Flows

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) flow through grounding circuits into power systems, when triggered by geomagnetic disturbances. Power transformers (with grounding connections) are the primary path for GIC flows into power systems. The flow of GICs through a power transformer can create adverse impacts on its operation, including large increases in its reactive power demands and significant harmonic distortions in the primary side currents. This paper presents case studies and analyses of the adverse impacts of GIC flows on power transformers. Presented case studies are conducted on two power transformers with different core types, power ratings, and voltage ratings. Each of these power transformers is tested for various levels of GIC flows with its loading being kept unchanged. Results of conducted case studies conclude that the <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$2^{\text{nd}}$</tex-math></inline-formula> harmonic is the dominant in primary and side currents at all levels of GIC flows. Other harmonic components such as the <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$3^{\text{rd}}$</tex-math></inline-formula> , <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$4^{\text{th}}$</tex-math></inline-formula> , <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$ 5^{\text{th}},\ 6^{\text{th}},\ 7^{\text{th}}\ \text{and}\ 8^{\text{th}}$</tex-math></inline-formula> harmonic components, can be observed with lower magnitudes than the <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$2^{\text{nd}}$</tex-math></inline-formula> harmonic component.

Reduced Nodal Admittance Matrix Method for Probabilistic GIC Analysis in Power Grids

Efficient probabilistic geomagnetically induced current (GIC) analysis in power grids provides tools for assessing and mitigating small-probability tail risks of geomagnetic disturbances, especially in early warning and real-time scenarios. This letter employs the reduced nodal admittance matrix (RNAM) to speed up GIC calculation based on Kron reduction. Moreover, the proposed RNAM method is used to achieve a more efficient analysis of probabilistic GICs, which considers the uncertainty of the substation grounding resistances. The novel method is compared with the classical algorithms including the nodal admittance matrix method, the Lehtinen-Pirjola method, and the bus admittance matrix method, and its efficiency improvement is illustrated with several power grid test cases.

Modelling and analysis of LCC‐HVDC converter station for harmonic coupling of AC/DC power grid during geomagnetic storm

AbstractIn this paper, the problem of harmonic coupling between the converter transformer and the converter under the action of geomagnetically induced current (GIC) is proposed to be investigated. Firstly, a model of a 12‐pulse line commutated converter high voltage direct current (LCC‐HVDC) converter station based on harmonic state space (HSS) theory is established. Secondly, the harmonic components of the interaction between the AC‐side harmonic current and the DC‐side harmonic voltage are qualitatively analyzed by using the harmonic modulation theory. Through the simulation model and harmonic state space (HSS) calculation model, the harmonic coupling characteristics of power grid are analyzed. Finally, the harmonic current and voltage amplitude of AC / DC power grid under different GIC are calculated, and the characteristics and rules of AC / DC harmonic propagation are revealed. Among them, the amplitude of the 2nd harmonic current on the AC side and the 3rd harmonic current on the DC side increases linearly with the GIC. In addition, the 3rd and 9th harmonics on the AC side are also greatly affected by the magnetic bias of the converter.

Expected Geomagnetically Induced Currents in the Spanish Islands Power Transmission Grids

AbstractThe aim of this study is to evaluate the geomagnetically induced current (GIC) hazard in the power networks of the Canary and Balearic archipelagos. This is done in order to strictly complete the detailed assessment at national level of the power transmission system of mainland Spain, including the 400 and 220 kV levels. We have constructed models for the grids in each of the individual systems and used resistivity models of the lithosphere for each group of islands, from which we have calculated the surface impedances. The respective models of electrical admittances of the grids have been combined with the geoelectric field derived from the convolution of the recorded (or expected in an extreme scenario) geomagnetic storms and the impedances calculated from the geoelectrical models to derive the expected GICs in the power lines, substations, and transformers. The low geomagnetic latitude of the Canary Islands combined with the small size of their power networks, makes them one of the least likely electrified locations to record significant GICs, with less than 3 A for the 100‐year return period. Even the 13 A that could be reached for the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval at the 500‐year return period does not seem likely to have a significant impact. The Balearic Islands, being at higher latitude and with a system length of approximately 300 km, including alternating current power lines connecting the Islands, shows GIC signals of moderate amplitude with up to 40 A for the 100‐year return period.

Влияние космической погоды на надежность функционирования транспортных систем на высоких широтах

The review offered for the first time in the Russian scientific literature is devoted to various aspects of the problem of the impact of space weather on ground transport systems. An analysis of available information indicates that space weather disturbances can affect rail infrastructure through both direct and indirect effects on system components. One of the main hazards is geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in grounded extended structures excited by the geomagnetic field disturbances. The telluric electric fields and currents associated with them can cause power outages and malfunctions in the railway automation track circuits. Indirect impact is possible through disturbances in the stable supply of electricity, disturbances in communication systems and in the appearance of positioning errors in global navigation satellite systems. The review provides information necessary for engineers of transport and energy systems about the main factors of space weather that could pose a threat to such systems. Examples of the influence of geomagnetic disturbances on the automatic signaling of the northern sections of Russian Railways are given. The prospects for monitoring space weather and the aurora oval for the needs of Russian Railways are discussed.

Toward More Accurate GIC Estimations in the Portuguese Power Network

AbstractNew geomagnetically induced current (GIC) computations for mainland Portugal include the entire power network, with network parameters and topology provided by the transmission grid operator for all the high voltage lines (150, 220, and 400 kV). The first 3D conductivity model for the west region of the Iberian Peninsula, based on 31 broadband magnetotelluric soundings, is used in calculations, revealing the effect of different crustal domains in GIC distribution. Geomagnetic field variations are taken from Coimbra or San Fernando magnetic observatories, according to the Nearest Neighbor method, and used together with surface impedance values predicted from the new conductivity model to calculate the induced electric field on a regular grid. The global distribution of GICs over the power network is characterized based on results derived for the eight most significant storms registered in the Iberia during solar cycle 24. Substations susceptible to the highest GICs are found near the transition between the granitic geotectonic unit of Central Iberian Zone and the Lusitanian Basin. A prototype of a Hall effect sensor has been installed at a substation and is active since the end of August 2021. In order to validate our GIC model, recent measurements are compared with simulations. GIC computation is prone to uncertainties from various sources, possibly contributing with different weights to the final error in computed values. Here, we evaluate the contribution of substation earthing resistance and nonuniqueness of the conductivity model to the final GIC uncertainties.

Evaluation of telluric-associated corrosion on buried pipelines

Telluric currents, often known as geomagnetically induced currents (GIC), are produced by the natural variations of the Earth's magnetic field.The corrosion protection system of a buried pipeline generally comprises the coating and cathodic protection system. Cathodic protection is an electrochemical protection system that maintains the pipe-to-soil potential (PSP) sufficiently negative in order to reduce corrosion to negligible levels. Varying telluric currents alter the PSP, thus interfering with the pipeline corrosion protection system and can create conditions when corrosion might increase above acceptable levels.This paper presents an evaluation of telluric-associated corrosion derived from measured and modelled PSP variations. The corrosion rates (metal loss per year) due to varying telluric currents with continuous frequency spectra (1 Hz–10−5 Hz) are approximated with the use of published experimental results derived for the specific sets of fixed frequencies.Results are presented for PSP observed on Australian and European pipelines during two periods of strong geomagnetic activity (in 2003 and 2004) and for identical hypothetical pipelines located at different latitudes for the entire year 2004.From the analysis of recorded PSP, it was found that the corrosion rates for a near-equatorial pipeline (Australia) could be higher than for mid-latitudes (Europe). This is possible because telluric-associated corrosion rates depend not only on geomagnetic activity, but on the properties of the pipeline coating, the performance of the cathodic protection system and environmental conditions.The study demonstrated that without cathodic protection the estimated corrosion rates exceeded the benchmark values recommended by national and international standards, and in exceptional case can exceed the acceptable values even with cathodic protection.Telluric-associated corrosion estimated for the identical hypothetical pipelines located in zones with different geomagnetic activity, clearly demonstrated the latitudinal dependence. The substantial increase of corrosion rates (about 5 times) has been found with increase of latitude from subauroral to auroral locations.

Assessment of Geomagnetically Induced Currents Impact on Power Grid Modelling

Recent history demonstrates that threat has no borders, though risk does, due to national and regional differences in vulnerabilities and exposure landscapes. The difference between well and poorly managed threat is striking. Inequalities in preparing for threats as a function of their type are still apparent. Compared to more concerning electromagnetic interference threats, the impact of geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) on power grid operation is not well studied. The need for detailed research of GMD negative impacts is expected to broaden awareness. The amplitude of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) is treated as a uniform measure of danger that can be processed by various stakeholders. Hence, methods for increasing the accuracy of GIC representation are presented in this paper. A low-entropy signal is defined and it is shown that the feature of low signal entropy can be used for increasing the accuracy of the measurement equipment. At the end, a full-system view of GMD impact on power grid operation is given.

Determining ULF Wave Contributions to Geomagnetically Induced Currents: The Important Role of Sampling Rate

AbstractPast studies found that large‐amplitude geomagnetically induced current (GIC) related to magnetospheric Ultra Low Frequency (ULF) waves tend to be associated with periods &gt;120 s at magnetic latitudes &gt;60°, with comparatively (a) smaller GIC amplitudes at lower latitudes and shorter wave periods and (b) fewer reports of waves associated with GIC at lower latitudes. ULF wave periods generally decrease with decreasing latitude; thus, we examine whether these trends might be due, in part, to the undersampling of ULF wave fields in commonly available measurements with 60 s sampling intervals. We use geomagnetic field (B), geoelectric field (E), and GIC measurements with 0.5–10 s sampling intervals during the 29–31 October 2003 geomagnetic storm to show that waves with periods &lt;∼120 s were present during times with the largest amplitude E and GIC variations. These waves contributed to roughly half the maximum E and GIC values, including during times with the maximum GIC values reported over a 14‐year monitoring interval in New Zealand. The undersampling of wave periods &lt;120 s in 60 s measurements can preclude identification of the cause of the GIC during some time intervals. These results indicate (a) ULF waves with periods ≤120 s are an important contributor to large amplitude GIC variations, (b) the use of 0.1–1.0 Hz sampling rates reveals their contributions to B, E, and GIC, and (c) these waves' contributions are likely strongest at magnetic latitudes &lt;60° where ULF waves often have periods &lt;120 s.

Analysis of characteristics of rail transit stray current and saturation mechanism of current transformer

Abstract The DC bias may affect the transient transfer characteristics of the current transformer (CT), threatening the correct action of the relay protection and the safe operation of the power system. Compared with the high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission in the unipolar-earth loop operation mode and geomagnetically induced current (GIC), the amplitude of the stray current is smaller, and the randomness and fluctuation are larger and accompanied by sudden changes. Combining the characteristics of stray current and the CT equivalent model considering the eddy current loss of the iron core, the mechanism of local transient saturation under the influence of bias magnetization is explained, and the CT saturation phenomenon caused by stray current and its effect on line distance protection are simulated and analyzed. The research shows that the influence of low amplitude and high duration of stray current will make the magnetic flux of CT grow and affect the transmission of steady-state and transient-state so that the measurement impedance appears amplitude-phase shift, which leads to under-range rejection of distance protection.

Estimation of Hot-Spot Heating in OIP Transformer Bushings Due to Geomagnetically Induced Current

This paper studies the temperature distribution in the transformer bushing in the presence of Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC). The thermal stress can significantly affect the transformer bushing reliability and lifespan. However, the existing research works have focused on thermal modeling of transformer bushing due to loading, and the impact of GIC on this valuable apparatus has not been investigated yet. In this paper, the hot-spot temperature (HST) in an oil-impregnated paper (OIP) bushing is studied during the GIC. The harmonic currents at various GIC levels are obtained from the EMTP-RV time-domain simulations using a detailed topological transformer model. Based on a frequency-dependent model of the bushing resistance, the total power loss is calculated by taking into account the GIC, load current, and harmonic currents. Subsequently, the temperature distribution in the modeled bushing is obtained from the finite-element method (FEM), considering all thermal mechanisms, including fluid flow, internal convection, and thermal conduction. In addition, a Thermal Equivalent Circuit (TEC) is developed for the bushing that replicates the FEM results. The simulation results reveal that the bushing HST may exceeds the recommended permissible temperature of the IEEE bushing standard. This situation may result in bushing insulation deterioration and reduction of the bushing lifespan.