Research Article| June 13, 2018 Prospective Evaluation of Global Earthquake Forecast Models: 2 Yrs of Observations Provide Preliminary Support for Merging Smoothed Seismicity with Geodetic Strain Rates Anne Strader; Anne Strader aGeoForschungsZentrum, Helmholtzstrasse 6/7, Building H 6, Room 207, 14467 Potsdam, Germany, strader@gfz-potsdam.de Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Maximilian Werner; Maximilian Werner bUniversity of Bristol, Office L126, Wills Memorial Building, Queens Road, Clifton, BS8 1RJ Bristol, United Kingdom Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar José Bayona; José Bayona cGeoForschungsZentrum, Helmholtzstrasse 6/7, Building H 6, Room 102, 14467 Potsdam, Germany Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Philip Maechling; Philip Maechling dUniversity of Southern California, 3651 Trousdale Parkway, Los Angeles, California 90089 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Fabio Silva; Fabio Silva eZumberge Hall of Science (ZHS), Room 169 C, Los Angeles, California 90089‐0740 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Maria Liukis; Maria Liukis fJet Propulsion Laboratory, NASA, Navigation and Ancillary Information Facility, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, California 91109 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Danijel Schorlemmer Danijel Schorlemmer gGeoForschungsZentrum, Helmholtzstrasse 6/7, Building H 6, Room 101, 14467 Potsdam, Germany Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1262–1271. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180051 Article history first online: 13 Jun 2018 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Anne Strader, Maximilian Werner, José Bayona, Philip Maechling, Fabio Silva, Maria Liukis, Danijel Schorlemmer; Prospective Evaluation of Global Earthquake Forecast Models: 2 Yrs of Observations Provide Preliminary Support for Merging Smoothed Seismicity with Geodetic Strain Rates. Seismological Research Letters 2018;; 89 (4): 1262–1271. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180051 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search ABSTRACT The global earthquake activity rate (GEAR1) seismicity model uses an optimized combination of geodetic strain rates, hypotheses about converting strain rates to seismicity rates from plate tectonics, and earthquake‐catalog data to estimate global Mw≥5.767 shallow (≤70 km) seismicity rates. It comprises two parent models: a strain rate‐based model and a smoothed‐seismicity based model. The GEAR1 model was retrospectively evaluated and calibrated using earthquake data from 2005 to 2012, resulting in a preferred log–linear multiplicative combination of the parent forecasts. Since 1 October 2015, the GEAR1 model has undergone prospective evaluation within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) testing center, forecasting Mw≥5.95 seismicity.We present initial prospective forecast test results for the GEAR1 model, its tectonic and seismicity components, and for the first iteration of the strain‐rate‐based model, during the 1 October 2015–7 September 2017 period. During the evaluation period, observed earthquakes are consistent with the GEAR1 forecast and comparative test results likewise support that GEAR1 is more informative than either of its components alone. Based on a combination of retrospective and prospective testing, the tectonic forecasts do not effectively anticipate observed spatial earthquake distribution, largely due to overlocalization of the model with respect to observed earthquake distributions. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.