Geopolitical Risk Index Research Articles

The Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Price Volatility

This study investigates the short-term and long-term effects of geopolitical risks on the volatility of oil price. Data used in this study are the daily geopolitical risk index, oil price and USD index during the period from January 4th, 2010 to December 31st, 2022. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the empirical results confirm that the geopolitical risks has positive effects on the volatility of oil price in both the long-term and short-term, meaning that an decrease in the geopolitical risk Index is associated with an increase in the volatility of oil price. In addition, the results derived from the ARDL model indicate that USD index has a positive effect on the volatility of oil price in the short-term, but it has no impact on the volatility of oil price in the long-term. Finally, the results of the error correction model confirm that only 2.81 percent of the disequilibria from the previous trading day is converged and corrected back to the long-run equilibrium in the current trading day.

Do domestic and external geopolitical risks matter for food availability: implications for global food security

ABSTRACT This paper investigated the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR) on national food availability and distinguished the differentiated effects caused by geopolitical shocks at domestic and international food suppliers. We proposed an external geopolitical risk index (EGPR) to identify a country’s vulnerability to geopolitical turmoil in its food suppliers. Our findings show that country-specific GPR adversely affects domestic production, and EGPR reduces food imports. Furthermore, the food availability of countries with low GDP is more easily susceptible to geopolitical unrest. Overall, this paper offers helpful hints for policymakers worldwide regarding the prevention of food security risks triggered by geopolitical tensions.

Economic Uncertainty and Bitcoin Volatility: Evidence During COVID-19

This research investigates the predictability of economic uncertainty indexes on the volatility of Bitcoin (BTC) during COVID-19. The economic uncertainty indexes include US economic policy uncertainty (EPU), Twitter economic uncertainty (TEU), Twitter market uncertainty (TMU), geopolitical risk index (GPR), and trade policy uncertainty (TPU) index. The empirical findings show that the Twitter market uncertainty (TMU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) uncertainty index are valuable predictors of BTC volatility. Moreover, the combination forecasts information for all economic uncertainty indexes is useful for BTC volatility forecasting. Also, we find evidence during high and low volatility and the Russia–Ukraine war. Our results show that Twitter market uncertainty and geopolitical risk uncertainty index are effective predictors of Bitcoin volatility during high volatility periods. During the Russia–Ukraine war, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), the Twitter market uncertainty index, and combination forecast information for all uncertainty indexes are effective for Bitcoin volatility prediction. Our findings are robust with the alternative method MCS test.

Money never sleeps: Capital flows under global risk and uncertainty

We employ various indexes, namely the geopolitical risk (GPR) index, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index, and world uncertainty index (WUI), to comprehensively capture multiple dimensions of risk and uncertainty and investigate their influence on capital flows measured by different categories of mutual fund flows and IMF intercountry transaction flows. We find that GPR harms aggregate capital flows of both equity and bond funds, whereas rising EPU only significantly reduces the capital flows of equity funds. Additionally, WUI increases capital flowing into active bond funds, indicating a flight-to-safety effect. Besides, high GPR environments amplify the negative influence of EPU on capital flows of equity funds. Meanwhile, in more geopolitically stable conditions, bond markets may serve as a preferred shelter for navigating EPU. However, we find that the impacts of risk and uncertainty on transaction flows are marginal. Furthermore, we demonstrate that global risk or uncertainty (EPU and WUI) plays a more dominant role than country-specific ones in shaping capital flows. Therefore, this study offers novel insights into how different dimensions of risk and uncertainty can shape capital flows differently and whether the compounding effect of risk and uncertainty differs from that of a single risk or uncertainty.

Geopolitical Risk & Indonesian Stock Market Response

Objective: The aim of this research is to determine empirically the impact of geopolitical risk originating from countries with high geopolitical risk and domestic ones on the Composite Stock Price Index in Indonesia. In addition, this research aims to determine the role of geopolitical actions in strengthening or weakening the relationship between geopolitical risk and the Composite Stock Price Index in Indonesia. Design/Methods/Approach: This research uses geopolitical risk index (GPRH) data from countries with the highest geopolitical risk index in the last 3 years and domestic ones consisting of Ukraine, Russia, America, China and Indonesia. Meanwhile, geopolitical action risk (GPRA) is a risk index measured in aggregate from January 2004-October 2023, so the number of observations in this study reached 238. Findings: The findings in the research show that Ukraine and America have a negative and significant influence, while China and Russia have a positive and significant impact on the composite stock price index in Indonesia. Apart from that, this research also found that the influence of geopolitical risk on the composite stock price index in Indonesia is greater when geopolitical actions such as escalation of war and acts of terror occur. Originality/Value: This research complements several previous studies regarding the impact of geopolitical risk on the Indonesian composite stock price index. Several previous studies have not examined the impact of each country's geopolitical risk on the composite stock price index and how it is moderated by geopolitical action. Practical/Policy implication: The findings in this research prove that countries that have high geopolitical risk have a significant influence on the Composite Stock Price Index in Indonesia. So that investors can use this research as a consideration when investing in the capital market by considering geopolitical risks originating from abroad and domestically.

Do geopolitical risks always harm energy security? Their non-linear effects and mechanism

Exploring the link between geopolitical risk (GPR) and energy security (ES) is essential for ensuring national security and sustainable economic development in the face of frequent global geopolitical conflicts and escalating geopolitical threats. Based on the newly developed GPR index, this research uses unbalanced panel data for 35 nations from 2005 to 2018 to examine the influence of GPR on ES and its impact mechanism. The results show that GPR causes the U-shape effect on ES that first decreases (GPR < 0.59) and then increases (GPR > 0.59), meaning that GPR causes both negative and positive effects on ES, and the results remain robust after a series of tests. Transmission mechanism analysis indicates that renewable energy technology innovation is the key transmission mechanism for the U-shape impact of GPR on ES. Moderating effect analysis shows that international trade reinforces the U-shape effect of GPR on ES, meaning that it reinforces both the negative and positive effects of GPR on ES, while FDI only reinforces the positive effect of GPR on ES. Heterogeneity analysis presents that the U-shape effect of GPR on ES is more significant in OECD countries and net energy-importing countries.

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables and Geopolitical Risk Index on Defence Expenditures

Stratejik ve jeopolitik nedenlerle maruz kaldığı tehditlerin boyutu, Türkiye’nin savunma harcamalarını arttırarak sürdürmesine neden olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin savunma harcamalarının ülke ekonomisine etki eden makroekonomik değişkenlerden ve jeopolitik risk endeksinden etkilenip etkilenmediği araştırılmıştır. Makroekonomik göstergelerden; enflasyon, ekonomik büyüme, dış ticaret dengesi ve işsizlik değişkenleri seçilmiştir. Seçili göstergelerin ve jeopolitik risk endeksinin savunma harcamalarına etkisi ARDL sınır testi ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analiziyle incelenmiştir. ARDL sınır testi sonuçları enflasyon ve işsizlikle savunma harcamaları arasında pozitif, dış ticaret dengesi ve ekonomik büyümeyle savunma harcamaları arasında negatif yönlü istatistiksel olarak anlamlı uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik ilişkisi sonuçlarına göre işsizlik, ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon, dış ticaret dengesi ve jeopolitik risk endeksinden savunma harcamalarına doğru istatistiksel olarak anlamlı nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir.

Long-Run Determinants of Inflation in Malaysia and Indonesia: Does Geopolitical risk matter?

This study attempts to investigate the determinants of inflation in Malaysia and Indonesia in the long run. By using macroeconomic variables that theoretically matter to manage inflation such as money supply and exchange rate, this study also includes geopolitical risk index as proxy of uncertainty to be investigated further as another determinant that may cause the increasing of inflation rate in Malaysia and Indonesia. The data covers the period 2014:M11 to 2023:M8. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is employed to determine the long-run relationship. The main findings in this study demonstrate that the money supply and geopolitical risk are among the determinants of inflation in Malaysia in the long run. Meanwhile contrary to that, only money supply determines inflation in Indonesia. The finding indicates that money supply and geopolitical risk matter to inflation management. Hence, this study suggests that monetary authorities must take an active role towards money supply and geopolitical risk issue.

How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?

This paper assesses the effect of US–China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures, the Political Relationship Index (PRI) and the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), and rely on structural VAR and local projection methodologies. Our findings show that improved US–China relationships, as well as higher geopolitical risks, drive up the price of oil. In fact, unexpected shocks in the political relationship index are associated with optimistic expectations of economic activity, whereas unexpected shocks in the geopolitical risk index also reflect fears of supply disruption. Political tensions and geopolitical risks are thus complementary causal drivers of oil prices, the former being linked to consumer expectations and the latter to the prospects of aggregate markets.

Carbon conundrums: Geopolitical clashes and market mayhem in the race for sustainability

This research presents an in-depth investigation into the dynamic correlation between geopolitical conflicts and carbon markets utilizing the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) technique. The analysis focuses on the interconnectedness between the Geopolitical Risk Index Daily (GPRD) and vital carbon pricing instruments, specifically the Intercontinental Exchange Endex European Union Allowance (ECEFDC), KraneShares California Carbon Allowance Strat ETF (KCCAK), Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange China Emission Allowances Online Transactions (SAXCEA), and S&P Global Ex-Japan LargeMidCap Carbon Efficient Index (SPGJ). The daily fluctuations were traced from May 2021 to July 2023. The analysis is divided into short- and long-term connectedness, with particular emphasis on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the GPRD's spillover on carbon markets. The short-term connectedness (1–5 days) between GPRD and ECEFDC shows variability, fluctuating between 10% and 40%. Conversely, long-term connectedness exhibited a significant increase during the conflict, peaking at approximately 34% by mid-2022. The analysis of the Total Dynamic Connectedness (TCI) between the GPRD and the KCCAK indicates comparable magnitudes, although with minor initial discrepancies. The short-term connectedness of GPRD and KCCAK decreases from its peak of approximately 10% to approximately 1%. Conversely, long-term connectedness varies between approximately 32% and 2% from May 2022 onwards. The long-term connectedness between GPRD and SAXCEA revealed variable patterns, peaking at around 18% at the beginning of the sample period and rapidly reducing to around 1% within two months. The analysis of the connectedness between GPRD and the SPG) identifies intense fluctuations in both TCI and long-term connectedness. After an initial increase and decrease, these patterns rebound and experience another increase. This research provides significant insights into the complex dynamics of geopolitical conflicts and carbon markets, particularly the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on carbon market behavior.

The effect of geopolitical risks on TNC location decision from antagonizing countries in the Russian Federation in light of the Ukrainian crisis

The paper investigates the effect of geopolitical risks in the Russian Federation on foreign direct investment (FDI) from antagonizing countries in light of the Ukrainian crisis. Using the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), the empirical analysis works on panel data on inward FDI from 90 countries from 2007 to 2020. The estimation method of RWLS concluded that rising GPR deters flows and stocks of FDI coming from antagonizing countries, which confirms that interstate relations and geopolitical factors impact the location decision of transnational corporations. On a sectoral level, we found a negative effect in the secondary and tertiary sectors, with a greater effect in the secondary one, which indicates that vertical FDI is more sensitive to geopolitical risks than horizontal ones. However, the impact of GPR on inward FDI in the primary sector is positive, which indicates that antagonizing countries seek to control energy and mining sectors in the Russian federation during geopolitical tension.

Sentiment investor, exchange rates, geopolitical risk and developing stock market: evidence of co-movements in the time-frequency domain during RussiaUkraine war

PurposeThe aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2) to investigate co-movements between the ten developing stock markets, the sentiment investor's, exchange rates and geopolitical risk (GPR) during Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, (3) to explore the key factors that might affect exchange market and capital market before and mainly during Russia–Ukraine war period.Design/methodology/approachThe wavelet approach and the multivariate wavelet coherence (MWC) are applied to detect the co-movements on daily data from August 2019 to December 2022. Value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used to assess the systemic risks of exchange rate market and stock market return in the developing market.FindingsResults of this study reveal (1) strong interdependence between GPR, investor sentiment rational (ISR), stock market index and exchange rate in short- and long-terms in most countries, as inferred from (WTC) analysis. (2) There is evidence of strong short-term co-movements between ISR and exchange rates, with ISR leading. (3) Multivariate coherency shows strong contributions of ISR and GPR index to stock market index and exchange rate returns. The findings signal the attractiveness of the Vietnamese dong, Malaysian ringgits and Tunisian dinar as a hedge for currency portfolios against GPR. The authors detect a positive connectedness in the short term between all pairs of the variables analyzed in most countries. (4) Both foreign exchange and equity markets are exposed to higher levels of systemic risk in the period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.Originality/valueThis study provides information that supports investors, regulators and executive managers in developing countries. The impact of sentiment investor with GPR intensified the co-movements of stocks market and exchange market during 2021–2022, which overlaps with period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Geopolitical Risk and Investment

AbstractUsing a news‐based index of geopolitical risk (GPR), we document a strong negative relationship between firm‐level corporate investment and GPR. When the GPR index doubles, next‐quarter investment declines by 14% of its sample mean. The effect is more pronounced for firms with more irreversible investment or higher market power, confirming the real options theory. However, the effect is less significant for firms with a stronger ability to substitute labor for capital, a higher labor‐to‐capital ratio, or a higher labor share, supporting the convex return theory. Overall, our results suggest that the real options channel dominates the Oi–Hartman–Abel effect.

Constructing geopolitical risk index for Nigeria

We focus on computing the geopolitical risk index (GPRI) for Nigeria, the largest economy in Africa. The country has faced crises, including Boko Haram insurgency, banditry, kidnapping, EndSARS, and regional secession, affecting trade relationships with other countries. Existing GPR indices do not include Africa, hence the need for this effort. The proposed index considers eight prominent Nigerian newspapers and relevant keywords on a daily basis from Jan 1, 2012, to June 19, 2023. We evaluate the predictability of the index by examining its relationship with Nigeria's currency and stock markets. Our findings reveal a remarkable positive relationship between the rising geopolitical tensions and the volatility of the currency and stock markets. Curbing geopolitical tensions in Nigeria is crucial for financial market stability.

Impact of Geopolitical Risk on International Trade: Evidence from Container Throughputs

It is of great importance for manufacturers and consumers that raw materials and products can be delivered on time without any disruption in the supply chain. The fact that production chains can be located in more than one country in the globalized world makes the smooth operation of the supply chain partially difficult. For this reason, especially suppliers may stop doing business with countries where geopolitical risk is high, and this may change the container traffic of countries. Therefore, this study empirically tests whether geopolitical risks change the container volumes of countries. Our sample includes 15 of the 19 countries in the world for which the geopolitical risk index is calculated because some values of the excluded countries are missing. The countries included are Argentina, Brazil, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, and Türkiye in alphabetical order. The period covered consists of 21 observations annually, covering the years between 2000 and 2020. The asymmetric causality test method was applied to consider the possible asymmetrical consequences of the geopolitical risk on the container trade in the countries. The panel causality test results obtained show that positive shocks in geopolitical risk cause negative shocks in container traffic. These results show that the security and stability of the countries around them are critical for the country's economy, as well as the security and stability of the countries themselves. Countries that want to grow commercially should develop their policies by considering regional security and stability.

Reflections of Geopolitical Risk on Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of Türkiye

A way to achieve sustainable economic growth in developing countries is to increase investments with domestic savings. However, not every country has an equal opportunity in terms of domestic savings. The desired level of investment expenditures cannot be reached in countries with a savings gap. In this case, foreign direct investment (FDI) becomes more valuable in meeting countries’ investment needs. Nevertheless, companies may not behave very bravely in their investment actions in other countries. There is a considerable risk and uncertainty avoidance in the nature of investment because uncertainty and risk are accepted as harbingers of instability for a country. Since the main goal of companies is to make a profit, they may start thinking that they will not have the opportunity to make a profit in an unstable economy. Hence, the risk perception in the investment environment must be low for developing countries to become attractive for FDI inflows. Geopolitical risks, as well as economic, political, and strategic risks that countries will be exposed to, are important indicators considered in FDI inflows. Literature research shows that investors are aggressive in investing with a profit appetite and, with exceptions, are sensitive to geopolitical risks. In other words, FDI decreases in countries where geopolitical risks tend to increase. The present study tested the validity of this assumption in the literature for Türkiye. The impact of geopolitical risks on FDI was analyzed with the ARDL Boundary Test Approach for the period 1985-2020. FDI inflows were used as the dependent variable, and the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index, a measure of geopolitical risk, was used as the independent variable. Moreover, growth, globalization, and inflation are the other independent variables analyzed. The test results demonstrated the negative effect of the increase in the GPR index on FDI inflows. In terms of the results obtained, the study provides an important perspective on the prioritization of the geopolitical risk factor in the evaluation of foreign investment performance.

Revisiting the impact of geopolitical risk on Sukuk, stocks, oil and gold markets during the crises period: fresh evidence from wavelet-based approach

Purpose In this study, the authors analyze the impact of geopolitics risk on Sukuk, Islamic and composite stocks, oil and gold markets and portfolio diversification implications during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict period.Design/methodology/approachThe study used a mix of wavelet-based approaches, including continuous wavelet transformation and discrete wavelet transformation. The analysis used data from the Geopolitical Risk index (GP{R), Dow Jones Sukuk index (SUKUK), Dow Jones Islamic index (DJII), Dow Jones composite index (DJCI), one of the top crude oil benchmarks which is based on the Europe (BRENT) (oil fields in the North Sea between the Shetland Island and Norway), and Global Gold Price Index (gold) from May 31, 2012, to June 13, 2022.Findings The results of the study indicate that during the COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine conflict period geopolitical risk (GPR) was in the leading position, where BRENT confirmed the lagging relationship. On the other hand, during the COVID-19 pandemic period, SUKUK, DJII and DJCI are in the leading position, where GPR confirms the lagging position.Originality/value The present study is unique in three respects. First, the authors revisit the influence of GPR on global asset markets such as Islamic stocks, Islamic bonds, conventional stocks, oil and gold. Second, the authors use the wavelet power spectrum and coherence analysis to determine the level of reliance based on time and frequency features. Third, the authors conduct an empirical study that includes recent endogenous shocks generated by health crises such as the COVID-19 epidemic, as well as shocks caused by the geopolitical danger of a war between Russia and Ukraine.Highlights We analyze the impact of geopolitics risk on Sukuk, Islamic and composite stocks, oil and gold markets and portfolio diversification implications during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict period.The results of the wavelet-based approach show that Dow Jones composite and Islamic indexes have observed the highest mean return during the study period.GPR and BRENT are estimated to have the highest amount of risk throughout the observation period.Dow Jones Sukuk, Islamic and composite stock show similar trend of volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic period and comparatively gold observes lower variance during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict.

The relationship between geopolitical risks, renewable energy and economic growth in OPEC+ countries

The geopolitical risk (GPR) can be described as the risk connected with some crisis (e.g., wars, terrorist attacks, and conflicts between nations). Besides many other characteristics, OPEC+ countries are prone to risks and uncertainties. According to Bloom (2009) uncertainty is a broader concept that reflects ambiguity in the minds of decision-makers and policymakers about the possible future that spreads across macroeconomic to microeconomic levels. For instance, volatilities in GDP growth and oil prices affect investment decisions, plants' production schedule and individual's consumption habits. Researchers use different proxies of uncertainty that ranges from economic data such as volatility of oil prices, stock markets and GDP to news published in daily papers (Baker, Bloom, and Davis, 2016) since its broader existence implies no specific measures (Bloom, 2009). Extent empirical literature affirms significantly negative effects of uncertainty on the entire economy. Caldara and Iacoviello (2018) have introduced a new-based global uncertainty index, which covers country-specific and region-specific uncertainties measures. They included all words, linked with geopolitical tensions and are exogenous to macroeconomic uncertainties, published in 11 prominent newspapers. This geopolitical risk (GPR) index identified events such as 'Paris assaults', 4 'Iraq invasion', 'tensions during Gulf Wars', and '9/11 WTC attacks in USA'. Geopolitical risks such as wars, terrorist acts, military attacks, or diplomatic conflicts around the world are of major concern to businesses, financial market participants, public media, and policy makers. Considering the novelty and the significance of GPR, we investigate the impacts of geopolitical risks on three key elements of OPEC+ countries that have also global implication: economic growth, oil prices and energy exports. Keywords: Geopolitical risks, , renewable energy, OPEC+ countries.

Fat tails, serial dependence, and interlinkages of the geopolitical risk and food market during the COVID-19 pandemic and war crisis: an application of Bayesian vector heterogeneous autoregressions.

We investigate fat tails and network interconnections of geopolitical risk index and food prices, including the price of corn, rice, and wheat, using seven Bayesian vector heterogeneous autoregression fashions. This paper differentiates dynamically between network interlinkages between these variables during the short, medium, and long runs. We found some noteworthy results in our study. In the first place, network interlinkages exhibit remarkable differences over time. Interlinkages between variables in our designed networks are increased in the short, medium, and long term due to transient events occurring in markets during the studied period. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the long-term ties within the system are more significantly impacted. Additionally, based on net-directional linkages, each market's role shifts (from sending to receiving shock and vice versa) during the pre- and post-Ukraine-Russia conflict, whereas these roles persist during the COVID-19 pandemic. Observations of short- and medium-term trends reveal that the geopolitical risk index is shock receivers transmitted to these markets by the rice and corn markets. The results indicate that the geopolitical risk index persists as shock receivers in terms of long-horizon measures.

The Nexus between Climate Change and Geopolitical Risk Index in Saudi Arabia Based on the Fourier-Domain Transfer Entropy Spectrum Method

Geopolitical risks have recently escalated due to increased disputes and tensions between nations worldwide. Additionally, “climate change” describes the prolonged alteration of regular weather patterns, mainly due to human activities on Earth, leading to disastrous consequences for human livelihoods, the economy, and natural ecology. This study employs a novel transfer entropy spectrum-based Fourier domain to dynamically analyze the geopolitical risk index and specific climate change factors in Saudi Arabia. Our comprehensive investigation reveals a robust bidirectional causal relationship between the geopolitical risk index and key climate change variables, including total precipitation, relative humidity, temperature, and wind speed and direction. These findings provide compelling evidence of the intricate and complex links between geopolitical concerns and climate change in the region. The study offers policymakers and scholars crucial new insights into addressing the challenges posed by geopolitical instability and climate change by uncovering these causal relationships.