General Election Outcomes Research Articles

Multinational Democratic Federations: Comparing India with Multi-level Systems from the Global North

In this article, we compare the Indian experience with that of some of the multinational and multi-level polities from the Global North, namely Belgium, Canada, Spain and the United Kingdom. We first summarize the essence of multinationalism. Drawing from our comparative examples of the Global North we then show how dominant narratives of state nationalism condition the extent to which the state can accommodate plurinational difference through self-rule, shared rule and ethno-symbolic recognition within these states, and then compare and contrast this with the Indian experience. Despite the stickiness of elite narratives on the meaning of the state during state formation and democratization, we highlight the ability of electoral competition to push multi-level politics into a more accommodative or majoritarian direction. We illustrate this with reference to India including the 2024 General Election Outcome.

Electoral Effect of Protracted Presidential Primaries

Divisive presidential primaries have become common in the United States following the McGovern—Fraser reforms. Both politicians and political scientists have argued that parties that experience divisive primaries may be disadvantaged in the general election, with several political scientists demonstrating a relationship between a nominee receiving a smaller share of the primary vote and a smaller share of the general election vote. However, demonstrating that divisive primaries cause worse general election results is difficult because candidate weakness or other factors may cause poor performance in both primary and general elections. I use a linear regression model to estimate the effect of divisive presidential primaries on general election outcomes. I compare near-border counties in states that did not experience contested primaries to near-border counties in states that did experience contested primaries. I find that there is generally a penalty for parties that experience divisive primaries, but the effect varies over election cycles.

KONSTYTUCJONALIZACJA CYBERZAGROŻEŃ WYBORÓW POWSZECHNYCH

Universal suffrage by means of technology can in some cases become essential. Voting by e-mail, text message or information system raises many ethical and legal challenges. Add to this the intensified wave of disinformation during the election campaign period, and a problem of a systemic nature may arise with respect to the question of the necessity of regulating elections by technical means at the constitutional level. Such a need arises from the obligation to maintain statehood both from the perspective of the implementation of elections and the impact on society of harmful disinformation, ending with cyber threats related to vote rigging, identity theft or hacking of election servers. The aim of this paper is to show the legality of disinformation during general elections at the constitutional level. An explanation of disinformation activities and an analysis of cyber attacks in selected countries around the world shows that disinformation and cyber attacks have a significant impact on the final outcome of general elections. In this state of affairs, the key question arises as to whether the good protected directly by the Constitution of the Republic of Poland should be attributed stronger protection of the freedom of speech, which is an individual right expressed in Article 54 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland, or the assurance of security of the State and its citizens in the form of ensuring democratic elections in a state governed by the rule of law with the help of the criminalization at the constitutional level of disinformation and influence on general elections by technical means. Ensuring security of the State and its citizens is one of the cardinal duties of the Polish State enshrined in Article 5 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland.

The Effect of 'Them That's Got Shall Have' Laws on General Election Outcomes

The Effect of 'Them That's Got Shall Have' Laws on General Election Outcomes

Elections and unemployment benefits for families: Did the Family Benefit Dispute affect election outcomes in Germany?

Underlying reasons for certain voting outcomes are subject to a vivid debate – especially in times of landslide changes in voting outcomes of long-established parties in many European countries including Germany. The linkages between these voting outcomes and economic indicators are rather elusive since many confounding and unobservable aspects determine voting decisions. Exploiting a quasi-natural experiment resulting from a legislation change in the German state of Bavaria that effectively increased family benefits for unemployment benefit recipients in certain districts, we try to identify the effect of this legislation on voting outcomes in the Bavarian state election of 2018. While we do not find a significant effect on general election outcomes in the affected districts, our results imply that the general debate seems to have affected the voting behavior of families with unemployment benefits and children under the age of three.

Divisive, polarising, or energising? Primary election competition and candidate performance in U.S. congressional elections

ABSTRACT How do primary elections influence general election outcomes? The conventional wisdom in American Politics predicts a ‘primary penalty’ that harms a party or candidate’s chances of winning the ensuing general election. I present and test an alternative theory inspired by comparative studies of Latin America: primary election competition results in a ‘primary bonus’ which may make candidates more likely to win the general election that follows. Despite potential for polarisation and divisiveness, robust primary competition encourages campaigns to professionalise and mobilise voters, weeds out unfit candidates, and provides a testing ground for messages and policies. Furthermore, the nature of the primary electorate and incumbency advantage may mitigate the proposed sources of the penalty. Analysis of data collected from multiple sources on all U.S. congressional elections (2008–2016) lends strong support to the Primary Bonus hypothesis. Primary elections strengthen candidates for the general election, contrary to extant theories in American politics. This study is the first to find a primary bonus in U.S. congressional elections.

Analysis of Evaluated Sentiments; a Pseudo-Linguistic Approach and Online Acceptability Index for Decision-Making with Data: Nigerian Election in View

Sentiments measured properly always give direction to future occurrences. Without an expression through feelings plus sensitive statements, it would be difficult to predict future occurrence. But when feelings are expressed through spoken languages or written texts, a projection of future event can be evaluated to an extent. Nigeria is blessed with intellectuals and over 48% of the population are actively involved in social media. The beauty of this great nation is in its diversity and practice of democracy. Since independence, they have experienced variations in handling their hard-earned democracy. The goal of this paper is to compare analyzed sentiments from the Nigerian people across the 6 geopolitical zones and the aftermath of the Nigerian election in 2019. Data is retrieved from the social media using python programming language across 2 major platforms twitter and Facebook. A word cloud is introduced later to differentiate various sentiments using a spiral loop to map the various artifacts into corpora. Vader machine learning system called Sentiment Intensity Analyzer was used to the analyze each statement to retrieve positive and negative sentiments. This study employs two methodologies, quantitative and qualitative methods with significant levels of descriptive approach in data analysis. The researchers explore the results of the analysis to verify whether significant decisions can be made in the future from data generated from social media, using the 2019 Nigerian election as a case study. A dashboard was developed to plot the different feelings and how they influenced the general election outcome. PHP and JavaScript were used to achieve this. It is recommended that stakeholders in the ‘digital humanities and arts’ explore the findings in this paper especially if the result comes at least close to 80% of the real result.

Predicting general election outcomes: campaigns and changing voter knowledge at the 2017 general election in England

There is a growing literature suggesting that the result for each constituency at British general elections can be predicted using ‘citizen forecasts’ obtained through voter surveys. This may be true for the majority of constituencies where the result at previous contests was a substantial majority for one party’s candidates: few ‘safe seats’ change hands. But is it true in the marginal constituencies, where elections are won and lost? Analysis of such ‘citizen forecast’ data for the Labour-Conservative marginal constituencies in 2017 indicates not. Although respondents were aware of the seats’ relative marginality and of general trends in party support during the campaign, they could not separate out those that were eventually lost by each party from those that were won again, even in seats where the elected party won comfortably.

Geographies of Brexit and its aftermath: voting in England at the 2016 referendum and the 2017 general election

ABSTRACTMuch has been written since the 2016 Brexit referendum regarding the divides within British society that the vote illustrated – including geographical divides – and their influence on the outcome of the 2017 general election. Focusing on England, this paper explores the extent and significance of those geographical divides at the 2016 referendum, at a variety of spatial scales – concluding that apart from a major difference between parts of inner London and the rest of England these were largely insignificant. Turning to the 2017 general election, analyses show that this return to a predominantly two-party system within England largely involved a replication of the geography of the 2015 general election outcome. A new electoral map of England did not emerge from the divisions that Brexit stimulated: the country is divided along class lines, with London standing out as different from all other regions.

Can Economic Development Influence General Election Outcomes? Evidence from Consumption Expenditure Trends of Indian States

India left aside the economic philosophy of the import-substitution-led growth model in 1991, and increasingly integrated itself with the world economy. 1 1 The views expressed by the authors are personal and in no way represent the same of their respective institutes. While the country’s GDP growth is commendable in global comparison, devolution of actual development at the state level is a relevant research question. It is argued that India’s poor growth prospect in recent times is a result of the counterproductive policies adopted over the last decade, particularly since 2009. The present analysis contributes to this debate by exploring two key questions. First, it enquires how the government’s social sector policies, measured by inflation-adjusted average per capita social sector expenditure (PCSSE) and per capita grants-in-aid disbursement (PCGAD), contribute to economic development, as reflected through inflation and inequality-adjusted monthly per capita consumption expenditure (MPCE), across various states over the last two decades. Second, the paper also attempts to explain the influence of development dynamics, as reflected through growth in MPCE, on general election outcomes. The analysis indicates that government policies in the social sector influence the development process, which in turn may affect general election outcomes. Given these findings, it is argued that there is room for introspection on recent restructuring of centre–state financial devolutions.

Is Running Enough? Reconsidering the Conventional Wisdom about Women Candidates

The conventional wisdom in the literature on women candidates holds that “when women run, they win as often as men.” This has led to a strong focus in the literature on the barriers to entry for women candidates and significant evidence that these barriers hinder representation. Yet, a growing body of research suggests that some disadvantages persist for Republican women even after they choose to run for office. In this paper, I investigate the aggregate consequences of these disadvantages for general election outcomes. Using a regression discontinuity design, I show that Republican women who win close House primaries lose at higher rates in the general election than Republican men. This nomination effect holds throughout the 1990s despite a surge in Republican voting starting in 1994. I find no such effect for Democratic women and provide evidence that a gap in elite support explains part of the cross-party difference.

Social media as an upcoming tool for political marketing effectiveness

Abstract In the present era of electronic revolution when the social media has become the means and end of all communication, democracies are wondering if social media can be a valid indicator to predict elections outcome. With the increase in popularity and growth in the use of social media, the present study aims at examining whether the use of social media (Twitter) had an effect on the 2014 General elections outcome. For this research, a total of 8,877,275 social media buzz for 100 days from January 01, 2014 to April 09, 2014 of 12 Indian political parties has been considered. The result indicates that social media buzz has a positive and significant impact on the outcome of General elections 2014.

National Party Division and Divisive State Primaries in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1948–2012

In presidential nomination campaigns, individual state primaries and a national competition take place simultaneously. The relationship between divisive state primaries and general election outcomes is substantially different in presidential campaigns than in single-state campaigns. To capture the full impact of divisiveness in presidential campaigns, one must estimate both the impact of national party division (NPD) and the impact of divisive primaries in individual states. To do so, we develop a comprehensive model of state outcomes in presidential campaigns that incorporates both state-level and national-level controls. We also examine and compare several measures of NPD and several measures of divisive state primaries found in previous research. We find that both NPD and divisive state primaries have independent and significant influence on state-level general election outcomes, with the former having a greater and more widespread impact on the national results. The findings are not artifacts of statistical techniques, timeframes or operational definitions. The results are consistent—varying very little across a wide range of methods and specifications.

The 2015 British General Election: a Convergence in Scottish Voting Behaviour?

The 2015 General Election outcome in Scotland was historic, for several reasons: the SNP won a General Election in Scotland for the first time, it won almost all Scottish seats, and Labour did not win for the first time in half a century. The aim of this paper is to put this undeniably historic outcome into context and into perspective, through an analysis of General Election results in Scotland since 1997 and a comparison between those results and Scottish Parliament election results. It will be argued that besides the obvious ones, the 2015 election outcome was exceptional for another, less obvious reason, namely that it was the result of a convergence in voting behaviour in Scotland for General Elections and for Holyrood elections.

What Happens When Extremists Win Primaries?

This article studies the interplay of U.S. primary and general elections. I examine how the nomination of an extremist changes general-election outcomes and legislative behavior in the U.S. House, 1980–2010, using a regression discontinuity design in primary elections. When an extremist—as measured by primary-election campaign receipt patterns—wins a “coin-flip” election over a more moderate candidate, the party’s general-election vote share decreases on average by approximately 9–13 percentage points, and the probability that the party wins the seat decreases by 35–54 percentage points. This electoral penalty is so large that nominating the more extreme primary candidate causes the district’s subsequent roll-call representation to reverse, on average, becoming more liberal when an extreme Republican is nominated and more conservative when an extreme Democrat is nominated. Overall, the findings show how general-election voters act as a moderating filter in response to primary nominations.

From Energy Blues to Green Energy: Options Before Pakistan

Energy crisis in Pakistan had been brewing long before it became an important national issue with the potential to significantly affect the outcome of general elections of 2013. The looming crisis of depleting non-renewable energy sources combined with a feeble economy has lent a new urgency to the search for an energy mix which is sustainable, economically viable and environmentally least hazardous. Fossil fuels with their known adverse environmental impacts dominate the current energy mix of Pakistan. The renewable energy sources remain underutilised despite being cost effective and less hazardous for the environment. A substantial amount of literature has highlighted various dimensions of existing energy sources in Pakistan with a particular emphasis on the environmental impact, the sustainability and the efficiency of various energy sources [see Asif (2009); Basir, et al. (2013); Bhutto, et al. (2012); Mirza, et al. (2009, 2008, 2003); Muneer and Asif (2007); Sheikh (2010) for example]. This study analyses the environmental impact, economic feasibility and efficiency of various energy sources subject to various economic and noneconomic constraints. Section 2 discusses energy security by reviewing various tapped and untapped energy sources besides analysing current energy mix and its future prospects. Section 3 highlights the interaction of energy use and environment. Section 4 discusses two approaches to assess the feasibility of an energy mix: disaggregated and aggregated. The latter approach makes a multidimensional comparison of all the energy sources discussed in this study. Section 5 consists of discussion and concluding remarks.

The Virtues of Participation Without Power: Campaigns, Party Networks, and the Ends of Politics

Following Francesca Polletta's call to reconsider participatory democracy in a new millennium, this article analyzes and makes a normative case for institutional and partisan forms of participation without decision making. I draw on field research and interviews conducted over the last decade on Democratic Party campaigns to argue against contemporary denunciations of partisanship and critiques of institutional participation by radical democrats. First, this article discusses the opportunities available for citizens to participate in electoral politics. Volunteering is often limited to fund-raising and instrumental voter contacts given the constraints of electoral institutions. Although campaign volunteerism is a fundamentally limited form of civic engagement, institutional and partisan participation has democratic value. Campaigns are institutionally linked to political parties that offer distinct moral, ideological, and policy choices to citizens. Recent analytical and empirical work shows that contemporary political parties are constituted by relatively coherent networks of civil society and social movement organizations that devote considerable resources to electoral politics to shape primary and general election outcomes and advance their agendas in governance. This reveals electoral participation to be tightly linked to larger partisan dynamics and institutional sites of power.

Pretty faces, marginal races: Predicting election outcomes using trait assessments of British parliamentary candidates

The conventional wisdom on Western European politics leads us to believe that all the “action” lies with parties, because the unified parliamentary delegations in Western Europe draw voters' attention to parties' policies and images. Though British elections take place under a single member district plurality system, British parties, like their continental counterparts, are highly centralised and feature disciplined parliamentary delegations. Despite the strong ties between British candidates and their parties, we demonstrate that perceptions of candidates' personal attributes can be used to predict general election outcomes. Using a computer-based survey where subjects are asked to evaluate real British candidates using only rapidly determined first impressions of facial images, we successfully predict outcomes from the 2010 general election. Moreover, we find that perceptions of candidates' relative attractiveness are particularly useful for predicting outcomes in marginal constituencies.

When Gender Matters: Macro-dynamics and Micro-mechanisms

Does candidate sex matter to general election outcomes? And if so, under what conditions does sex exert an effect? Research conducted over the past 40 years has asserted an absence of a sex effect, consistently finding that women fare as well as men when they run. Nevertheless, this scholarship neglects sex-based differences in candidate valence, or non-policy characteristics such as competence and integrity that voters intrinsically value in their elected officials. If women candidates hold greater valence than men, and if women’s electoral success stems from this valence advantage, then women candidates would be penalized if they lacked the upper hand on valence. Recent research at the macro-level reports a 3 % vote disadvantage for women candidates when valence is held constant (Fulton, Political Res Q 65(2):303–314, 2012), but is based on only one general election year. The present study replicates Fulton’s (Political Res Q 65(2):303–314, 2012) research using new data from a more recent general election and finds a consistent 3 % vote deficit for women candidates. In addition, this paper extends these findings theoretically and empirically to the micro-level: examining who responds to variations in candidate sex and valence. Male independent voters, who often swing general elections, are equally supportive of women candidates when they have a valence advantage. Absent a relative abundance of valence, male independents are significantly less likely to endorse female candidates. If correct, the gender affinity effect is asymmetrical: male independent voters are more likely to support men candidates, and less likely to support women, but female independents fail to similarly discriminate.

The Primary End Game and General Election Outcomes: Are they Connected?

Recent presidential nominating contests are effectively over sometime during the first half of the election year, well before the official nominations are bestowed at the party conventions. Yet some candidates become the presumptive nominee as early as February, while others do not obtain this moniker until May or June. This article takes a preliminary look at the dates candidates became the presumptive nominees and their general election fates.