Energy Intensity Of GDP Research Articles

ЕНЕРГОЕФЕКТИВНІСТЬ КРАЇН ЄВРОПИ НА СУЧАСНОМУ ЕТАПІ

In this article, the relationship between energy consumption and GDP level has been analysed. The energy efficiency of European countries at present time based on the energy intensity of GDP and the quality of life index of the population has been explored. The efficiency level of the primary energy use through methods of system analysis and statistical calculations is determined. The relationship between the efficiency of the energy resources consumption by European states and the level of their economic development has been established. The presence of a significant imbalance in the energy intensity of GDP between European countries, namely between the economy in transition countries and developed countries of Europe has a much higher level of GDP per capita is revealed. The reason for this is that developed states of Europe have a more developed energy infrastructure in comparison with the former Soviet states. The energy-intensive and relatively powerful industrial sector consumes only a quarter of the energy resources consumed by EU countries due to its energy efficiency. Post-Soviet countries, although they consume less energy per capita, spend much more energy for own production of goods and services due to outdated transport infrastructure, poor green and renewable energy sources developing and transport, which significantly exceeds carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide emissions to the environment, therefore needs more fuel compared to transportation of developed European countries. The consistent patterns of primary energy consumption and its use by European states are revealed. Trends of reducing energy use and energy efficiency in the European countries have been analysed and considered. Energy efficiency of European countries through the quality of life index of the population, which takes into account the purchasing power index, the subsistence minimum, environmental pollution, the climate component, housing prices relative to the income of the population, time spent in traffic jams is analysed.

FORECASTING DEMAND ON THE DOMESTIC ELECTRICITY MARKET ON THE BASIS OF THE RESULTS OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS DYNAMICS ANALYSIS

The works, which are devoted to the forecasting of demand for electric power, are analysed in this research. A number of these works is identified in order to use the available data. The influence of individual social and economic factors on the volume of annual electricity consumption in Ukraine is investigated. The use of forecasting of demand for electric energy data on the volume of gross domestic product on the parity of purchasing power, GDP energy intensity and the population of Ukraine for the period of 1991-2017 are substantiated, as well as the correlation between them. The annual volumes of electricity consumption are determined. It has been proposed the economic and mathematical model of forecasting and use of multiple regression equations. The method of reduction of the nonlinearity of the dynamics of the investigated factors is considered. We have compared the results, which are obtained after the use of this model, with the results of the available national forecasts.

ESTIMATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES APPLICATION IN THE SYNERGY WITH EUROPEAN UNION POLICY

This paper gives the possibility to analyze the application of renewable energy sources (RES) at different stages of their implementation to energy supply. Through the world experience we research the dynamics of energy consumption by its types; determine, what kinds of alternative sources are demanded most of all. In addition, we assess the efficiency of the application of RES in Ukraine. According to statistical and correlation analysis, it was proved that for Ukraine it is the most profitable to use biomass energy, while solar energy remains relatively expensive for our country. At the same time situation may change if costs for the solar panel will decrease in the future. It is shown that use of alternative energy sources decrease the energy intensity of GDP, while fossil resources increase this parameter. Unfortunately, Ukraine faces difficulties in attracting investments for development of RES as they are not so profitable at this time. It means that government should change its policy, increasing electricity prices to the European level, giving the chance for energy independence. In any case, in Ukraine, it will be necessary to increase the introduction of RES, as our country has only about 2% of RES in energy balance, while European countries in average have 17% and some of them have more than 60%.

Functional Features of National Thermal Power Plantsunder Sustainable Development Conditions

The paper is devoted to analysis of functional peculiarities of thermal power plants in Ukraine. In the course of the study, key determinants of the sustainable development of domestic electricity generation were identified in the context of transition to a new market model. The preconditions of activation and support of the sustainable development concept implementation process in the modern business practice of the energy sector enterprises within the Ukrainian economy are outlined. The theoretical and practical bases for ensuring the sustainable development of energy in relation to other United Nations Declarations of Sustainable Development are indicated. The comparative estimation of the efficiency level of state policy in scope of energy independence and resource conservation with the use of a complex indicator of GDP energy intensity is given. On the basis of international and domestic statistical data the dynamics of volumes of electricity production in Ukraine for the period of 1990-2017 as well as the structure of electricity generation by type of generation were analyzed. The dynamics of electric power generation in Ukraine by types of raw materials was presented in complex with the dynamics of coal consumption and production for the corresponding period. The peculiarities of thermal power plants functioning in comparison with other power generating enterprises in modern conditions are specified. The key element of Ukraine’s energy independence – the volume of proven coal reserves – is a prerequisite for the efficient functioning of domestic thermal power plants. The pricing features in the sphere of electricity production and sales are outlined, in particular, the structure of market rate and the price of electricity sales by producers to the Wholesale Market are presented. The significance of the innovation factor in the process of improving the efficiency of thermal power plants functioning has been substantiated, taking into account the economic, social and environmental aspects of their production and economic activity.

Implementation of Selected Sustainable Development Objectives in European Union Countries

The aim of the paper is to assess the implementation of selected sustainable development objectives in European Union countries with particular focus on Poland. Several different indicators were taken into account: greenhouse gas emission, share of renewable energy, GDP energy intensity and protection of environment and biodiversity, which cover goals set in The Europe 2020 Strategy, among others: reduction of carbon dioxide emission, increase share of renewable energy usage, increase the effectiveness of energy usage, preservation of biodiversity. It was found, that European Union countries generally strive towards achieving those goals, though the effectiveness differs among them. Poland positively pursues all discussed issues. However, is not the leader in any of them. It is important to underline, that analysed data seem to allow to say, that it is possible to achieve objectives set in Europa 2020 Strategy.

Statistical Assessment of Energy Efficiency of Production and Consumption of Energy Resources in Ukraine

Energy independence of the country - one of the key links of the economy policy of many countries, including Ukraine, which full high-quality functioning of economy depends on. Full functioning of all economic institutes is possible only at reliable providing of fuel and energy resources. Economy life in general fades without skillful and rational use of energy resources. One of the main objectives of sustained economic growth and ensuring energy independence is connected with need of achievement of high, competitive level of efficiency of use of fuel and energy resources.
 Complex assessment of efficiency of production and consumption of energy resources provides use of a set of the indicators characterizing versatility and complexity of energy efficiency category. The method of multidimensional average has been used for calculation of complex assessment of energy efficiency, at the same time the following indicators have been chosen: energy intensity of GDP, export and import of energy resources, production and consumption of energy resources, investments into the energy complex, oil prices, tariffs for natural gas and the electricity for the population, a share of natural gas in the structure of energy consumption and so on.
 Complex assessment of efficiency of production and consumption of energy resources is executed on two blocks - for producers and for consumers (population). Extremely low level of energy efficiency for both producers and consumers (population) of energy services during 2010-2016 is observed. At the same time factors which influence the low level of integrated assessment of energy efficiency of production and consumption of energy resources are revealed. Achievements of the actual levels of integrated coefficients of energy efficiency substantially depended recently on introduction of extensive factors of development. Such situation has negative effect on achievement of energy independence of Ukraine.
 The current state of efficiency of production and consumption of energy resources is characterized by existence of a wide range of problems. It is possible to distinguish the lack of the principles of resource-saving of producers and economical use at consumers of energy services/ It results to very high level of energy consumption, the high level of energy intensity, the need to import of fuel and energy resources from other countries because of insufficiency of own production, the low level of income of consumers and groundlessness of increase in tariffs for energy services that promotes increase in level of debt of the population for the provided services and an unprofitable financial condition of the enterprises of the energy complex.

Spatial Heterogeneity of Energy-Related CO2 Emission Growth Rates around the World and Their Determinants during 1990–2014

Understanding the spatial heterogeneity and driving force identification of energy-related CO2 emissions (ECEs) can help build consensus for mitigating CO2 emissions and designing appropriate policies. However, previous studies on ECEs that focus on both the global-regional scale and the interaction of factors have been seldom conducted. In this paper, ECE data from 143 countries from 1990 to 2014 were selected to analyze regional differences in ECE growth rates by using the coefficient of variation. Then a geographical detector was used to analyze the key determinant factors on ECE growth rates around the world and in eight types of regions. The results show that: (1) the ECE growth rate in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) region is low and tended to decrease, while in the non-OECD region it is high and tended to increase; (2) the coefficient of variation and detection factor of ECE growth rates at a regional scale are higher than those at a global scale; (3) in terms of the key determinant factors, population growth rate, growth rate of per capita GDP, and energy intensity growth rate are the three key determinant factors of ECE growth rates in the OECD region and most of the non-OECD regions such as non-OECD European and Eurasian (NO-EE), Asia (NO-AS), non-OECD Americas (NO-AM). The key determinant factors in the African (NO-AF) region are population growth rates and natural gas carbon intensity growth rates. The key determinant factors of the Middle East (NO-ME) are population growth rate, coal carbon intensity growth rate and per capita GDP growth rate; (4) the determinant power of the detection factor, the population growth rate at the global scale and regional scale is the strongest, showing a significant spatial consistency. The determinant power of per capita GDP growth rate and energy intensity growth rate in the OECD region, respectively, rank second and third, also showing a spatial consistency. However, the carbon intensity growth rates of the three fossil fuels contribute little to the growth rate of ECEs, and their spatial coherence is weak; (5) from the perspective of the interaction of detection factors, six detection factors showed bilinear or non-linear enhancement at a global and a regional scale, and the determinant power of the interaction of factors was significantly enhanced; and (6) from the perspective of ecological detection, the growth rate of carbon intensity and the growth rate of natural gas carbon intensity at the global scale and NO-ME region are significantly stronger than other factors, with a significant difference in the spatial distribution of its incidence. Therefore, the OECD region should continue to reduce the growth of energy intensity, and develop alternative energy resources in the future, while those that are plagued by carbon emissions in non-OECD regions should pay more attention to the positive influence of lower population growth rates on reducing the growth rate of energy-related CO2 emissions. Reducing energy intensity growth rates and reducing, fossil energy consumption carbon intensity.

ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ГЕОПОЛІТИЧНИХ ТРАНСФОРМАЦІЙ

In the article the major trends in the energy sector of Ukraine in modern geopolitical conditions are investigated. The status and dynamics of energy security of Ukraine during 2007–2015 years are evaluated. The main factors strengthening the energy security of Ukraine in 2015 – the decrease of energy intensity of GDP and improving of the diversification of supply sources and kinds of energy resources are detected. The impact of key threats caused by geopolitical changes on the level of energy security of Ukraine is determined. The probability and preconditions of implementation of optimistic, basic, pessimistic scenarios of changes in such key factors of energy security, as energy intensity of GDP and the share of the dominant fuel in total energy consumption are substantiated. Directions of strengthening the energy security of Ukraine in terms of geopolitical transformations, comprehensive reforms of the production and import of energy production, distribution and the use of electricity; further reducing of energy intensity of GDP through economic restructuring and increasing the share of services and high-tech industries in GDP, energy efficiency enterprises of old industrial areas and their technical modernization.

Energy security of Ukraine in the context of its sustainable development

Energy security is an important issue for Ukraine's sustainable development. The main goal of the article is to show the state of energy security of Ukraine, analyze its tendencies and challenges, reveal the impact of energy security on sustainable development of a country. The state of the energy security of Ukraine was analyzed with the help of data collection, processing and analysis. Data was taken from State Statistics Service of Ukraine, Ministry of Energetics and Coal Industry of Ukraine, other sources, and analyzed with the help of tools of statistics and economic analysis. Ukraine, being a developing country and experiencing war, political and economic crisis, struggles for energy security support. The present state of energy availability and consumption in the country influences its sustainable development and political stability, and is a significant restraint in country's survival. Despite the fact that Ukraine has enough resources' deposits to provide itself with energy, it provides less than 50% of own demands and is dependent on Russia's resources. Production of energy in Ukraine is decreasing, but energy consumption remains high. Ukrainian industries are energy-wasteful and energy-inefficient; the country has the leading positions in energy intensity of GDP. The article shows the relation of energy sources and energy security of Ukraine to sustainable development, reveals the dependency of the Ukrainian energy security, and indicates its main threats and ways out.

Energy efficiency, low-carbon energy production, and economic growth in CIS countries

The paper studies the peculiarities of energy efficiency increase in national economy and decrease of carbon dioxide emission for CIS countries. The conditions that allow achieving parameters of sustainable development are determined according to indexes of GDP energy intensity and carbon intensity. Focusing on the indexes of GDP energy intensity and carbon intensity dynamics as well as on carbon intensity of energy production, a real movement towards implementation of program conditions presented by international organizations is analyzed, namely, economic conversion to the model of sustainable development. The examples demonstrate both the presence of significant differences between 12 countries and the lack of fatality in these differences. At determining dependencies linear models are preferred to non-linear ones, with the explanation of reasons in each particular case. Attention to success of these countries may help to understand the advantages of conversion to the model of sustainable development and also it helps to decrease demands in terms of costs for this conversion.

Exploring linkages among China's 2030 climate targets

China published its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC on 30 June 2015. In this document, China promised to reach its CO2 emissions peak no later than 2030, reducing its carbon intensity by 60–65% by 2030, relative to the 2005 level, and to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 20% by 2030. Using a simple method and official data, this article aims to explore the linkages among these three targets. First, it shows that as long as China achieves its 2030 non-fossil fuel target, its carbon emissions peak can be attained prior to 2030. Second, it provides a panoramic view of the link between carbon intensity and non-fossil fuel targets with different levels of GDP growth rate and energy elasticity. This article also presents further conclusions based on this finding: first, that a GDP carbon intensity target may help to control the absolute level of the carbon emissions peak, but it could be inconsistent with the development of non-fossil fuel power; and second, that a GDP energy intensity objective, together with a non-fossil fuel target, is necessary to ensure target coherency.Policy relevanceThe carbon emissions peak and the non-fossil fuel share of the energy mix can be considered as two key pillars of China's post-2020 climate pledges under the UNFCCC negotiation framework. It is therefore important to understand the relation between the two targets. This article uses a very simple non-modelling approach to demonstrate the implications of the achievement of China's non-fossil fuels target in terms of its carbon emissions peak and the linkage between achieving carbon intensity and non-fossil fuel targets under different growth and energy elasticity assumptions. Without focusing on the relevance of peak level or time, the authors illustrate the relationship between the 2030 non-fossil fuels target and the carbon emissions peak, highlighting the potential inconsistency between GDP carbon intensity and non-fossil fuels targets. These findings should have both political and academic uses to enable further clarification and analysis of China's INDC.

ICSC – Policy for energy saving and increase of efficiency in Russia in the spheres of construction, housing and community amenities

Russia’s GDP energy intensity today is approximately 2.5–3.5 times higher than that of economically developed countries. To increase its economic competitive ability, Russia needs to achieve energy efficiency in different spheres, including construction, housing and community amenities. Close examination of implemented management measures and world experience revealed that in order to achieve a further energy efficiency increase Russia needs to boost economic interest of the participants concerned and to form effective mechanisms of economic management, and this should be done along with improvement of administrative governance. The paper focuses on the barriers that hamper economic motivation and provides recommendations for energy efficiency increase. Even partial implementation of suggested measures, in our opinion, will increase energy efficiency in the spheres of construction and housing accommodation, which is illustrated through the example of a residential building located in Yekaterinburg (Russia, Middle Urals).

Energy needs for Morocco 2030, as obtained from GDP-energy and GDP-energy intensity correlations

We present forecasts of the energy consumption of Morocco towards 2030. Two models have been developed and their results compared: one based on the energy intensity (IE) and another one on a link with the country urbanization rate (URB). The IE model allowed to segment energy consumption in four posts while the URB model only in two posts. For the sensitivity analysis to economic growth, three future GDP evolution scenarios are proposed. The retrospective correlations of both models are excellent but their future extrapolations finish in slightly different results. Through their correlation to electricity consumption, peak power forecasts are also presented. A forecast of the country energy intensity is commented. As the average yearly increase of electricity should still be between 4.9% and 7.1% during 2020–2030, the electric equipment program continuation after 2020 must soon be clarified and avoid the former implementation delays. As the white combustibles needs should yearly increase between 6.3% and 7.8% in 2020–2030, electrical equipment programs should also make provisions for the case of deployment of electric cars. Butane subsidies widen the gap with other fuels and must be removed very soon possible to reduce the growth of its consumption and energy intensity.

Evaluation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Related Aspects: Case of the Czech Republic

The most important drivers of increasing greenhouse gas emissions are increasing world’s population, economic development resulting in higher level of productions and consumption, but also unanticipated increases in the energy intensity of GDP and in the carbon intensity of energy. The EU committed to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 20% until 2020 or 40% until 2030 compared to 1990 levels of the Kyoto Protocol. The Czech Republic enlarged EU in 2004 as a country from Eastern Europe where usually the heavy industries or agriculture prevail over other sectors. The aim of the paper was an evaluation of the development of greenhouse gas emissions and related aspects in the industry of the Czech Republic. Based on the results was concluded that although greenhouse gas emissions of the Czech Republic are deeply below the Kyoto targets, there are areas for improvements e.g. in case of energy intensities, as well as in case of carbon intensity and carbon productivity, where the Czech Republic reaches worse results than the EU28. Therefore is recommended to decrease greenhouse gas emission and increase gross value added generated by each NACE sector. Both those factors will impact on improvement of energy intensity, carbon productivity as well as greenhouse gas emissions per capita.

Factorization of air pollutant emissions: Projections versus observed trends in Europe

This paper revisits the emission scenarios of the European Commission's 2005 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP) in light of today's knowledge. We review assumptions made in the past on the main drivers of emission changes, i.e., demographic trends, economic growth, changes in the energy intensity of GDP, fuel-switching, and application of dedicated emission control measures. Our analysis shows that for most of these drivers, actual trends have not matched initial expectations. Observed ammonia and sulfur emissions in European Union in 2010 were 10% to 20% lower than projected, while emissions of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter exceeded estimates by 8% to 15%. In general, a higher efficiency of dedicated emission controls compensated for a lower-than-expected decline in total energy consumption as well as a delay in the phase-out of coal. For 2020, updated projections anticipate lower sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions than those under the 2005 baseline, whereby the degree to which these emissions are lower depends on what assumptions are made for emission controls and new vehicle standards. Projected levels of particulates are about 10% higher, while smaller differences emerge for other pollutants. New emission projections suggest that environmental targets established by the TSAP for the protection of human health, eutrophication and forest acidification will not be met without additional measures.

Analysis of CO2emissions peak: China’s objective and strategy

Establishing positive and urgent targets for CO2 reduction and emission peak, and promoting energy conservation and energy structure adjustment are among the strategies to address global climate change and CO2 emissions reduction. They are also means to break through the constraints of domestic resources and environment, and internal needs, to achieve sustainable development. Generally speaking, a country's CO2 emission peak appears after achieving urbanization and industrialization. By then, connotative economic growth will appear, GDP will grow slowly, energy consumption elasticity will decrease, and energy consumption growth will slow down – dependent mainly on new and renewable energies. Fossil fuel consumption will not increase further. When CO2 emission reaches its peak, the annual reduction rate of CO2 intensity of GDP is greater than GDP annual growth rate; and the annual reduction rate of CO2 intensity of energy use is greater than the annual growth rate of energy consumption. Therefore, three important approaches to promotion of CO2 emission peak can be concluded: maintaining reasonable control of GDP growth, strengthening energy conservation to significantly reduce the GDP energy intensity, and optimizing the energy mix to reduce the CO2 intensity of energy use. By around 2030, China will basically have completed its rapid development phase of industrialization and urbanization. Connotative economic growth will appear with the acceleration of industrial structure adjustment. The target of GDP energy intensity will still be to maintain an average annual reduction of 3% or higher. The proportion of non-fossil fuels will reach 20–25%, and the aim will be to maintain an average annual growth rate of 6–8%. The total annual energy demand growth of 1.5% will be satisfied by the newly increased supply of non-fossil fuels. The annual decline in CO2 intensity of GDP will reach 4.5% or higher, which is compatible with an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.5% in order to reach CO2 emission peak. This corresponds to the level of China's potential economic growth. Achieving CO2 emission peak will not impose a rigid constraint on economic development, but rather promote economic development and accelerate the transformation of green, low-carbon development. The CO2 emission peak can be controlled with a cap of 11 billion tons, which means that CO2 emission will increase by less than 50% compared with 2010. The per capita emission peak will be controlled at a level of less than 8 tons, which is lower than the 9.5 tons in the EU and Japan and much lower than the 20 tons in the US, future economic and social development faces many uncertainties in achieving the CO2 emission peak discussed above. It depends on current and future strategies and policies, as well as the pace and strength of economic transformation, innovation, and new energy technologies. If the economic transformation pattern fails to meet expectations, the time required to reach CO2 emission peak would be delayed and the peak level would be higher than expected. Therefore, we need to coordinate thoughts and ideas and deploy these in advance; to highlight the strategic position of low-carbon development and its priorities; to enact mid- to long-term energy development strategies; and to establish and improve a system of laws, regulations, and policies as well as an implementation mechanism for green, low-carbon development. Oriented by positive and urgent CO2 reduction and peak targets, the government would form a reversed mechanism to promote economic transformation and embark on the path of green, low-carbon development as soon as possible.

Economy-wide Implications of Low Carbon Electricity Based Mass Transport in Nepal

Development of low carbon electricity based mass transport is considered as one of the promising options for perusing the low carbon development (LCD) path in 21st century by the global communities. But long term economy-wide implications of such policy is very much country specifics citing their variations in the availability and tapping potential of indigenous clean energy resources, access to the clean technologies, affordability and acceptability of such technologies, and so on. This paper studies the economy-wide consequences of introducing different levels of electrified mass transport systems in Nepal on the long term basis. The study develops and uses a multi-sector, single region, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Nepal (Nepal-TRNSCGE) with technology level disaggregation in the transport and electricity sectors. The study indicates that under transport electrification scenarios consisting of 10% to 30% electrification of the transport sector as compared to the base case by 2050, the country would benefit economically with the value of cumulative undiscounted GDP increasing in the range of 2.6% to 3.1% and the value of cumulative undiscounted equivalent variation in income (household welfare) increasing in the range of 25.3% to 147.9% during 2005 to 2050. The policy would promote energy efficiency improvement and cleaner economic development with significant reduction in the energy intensity of GDP in the range of 3.1% to 4.1% and greenhouse gas intensity of GDP in the range of 4.7% to 7.1%. This highlights the potential role of low carbon electricity based transport in achieving the LCD path in the country. Introducing foreign direct investment would further increase GDP but reduce household welfare. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jie.v9i1.10679Journal of the Institute of Engineering, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 142–165

Adjustment of prices for energy resources

The paper is devoted to the problem of influence of domestic prices and tariffs for energy resources on economic development, as well as the problem of formation of the state policy of their adjustment. A calculation of basic indices of GDP energy intensity and the dynamics of prices for energy products is presented. The factors and consequences of the price dynamics are discussed. The aim of the paper is to reveal the complexity and multifaceted nature of the problem and show the inconclusive character of the approaches and solutions.

Russian energy efficiency accounting system

This paper was developed to evaluate the effectiveness of energy efficiency policies recently launched in the Russian Federation. Pilot applications in 2011–2013 of the energy efficiency and energy savings accounting system in Russia and energy consumption growth decomposition analysis developed in this paper have shown that (1) its creation is possible even when using a noncomprehensive statistical database; (2) its application provides nontrivial results and shows that the impressive GDP energy intensity decline in the period 2000–2012 was mostly (to 64 %) driven by structural and other factors with limited contribution of technological ones failing to bridge the technological gap with advanced economies. Facing slowing economic growth in years to come, the federal policy to improve energy efficiency is to be focused on providing incentives for more dynamic penetration of energy-efficient technologies to improve the Russian economy, competitiveness, and energy security.

Trends and prospects of ensuring energy resources in Ukraine

The article examines the state of power supply in Ukraine for the period from 2000 to 2010. The trend in the Ukraine GDP energy intensity (at purchasing power parity), compared to other countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is analyzed. The key points of demand determination and of alternative ways to satisfy it in Ukraine for the period until 2015 are formulated. A forecast of production and consumption of energy resources was conducted in accordance with the expected socioeconomic development of the country through the development of advanced fuel and energy balances.