Gas Prices Research Articles

ShardedScale: Empowering Blockchain Transaction Scalability with Scalable Block Consensus

Blockchain is a decentralized digital ledger technology that offers transparency, security, and immutability by recording and verifying transactions across multiple computers. However, it faces limitations such as scalability issues, high energy consumption, slow transaction validation, expanding storage requirements. Understanding these limitations is crucial for evaluating blockchain's suitability for specific use cases and finding solutions to overcome these challenges. Recognizing these limitations is imperative for assessing blockchain's applicability and devising solutions. This paper introduces a hybrid mechanism, ShardedScale, designed to enhance scalability, throughput, and system performance while mitigating time, gas, and ether consumption. The proposed ShardedScale approach combines various techniques including Proof of Work (PoW), Dynamic On-demand Proof of Stake (DPOS), Inter Planetary File System (IPFS), and sharding. ShardedScale achieved a remarkable 40% reduction in transaction confirmation times, a substantial 60% improvement in throughput, and demonstrated cost-effectiveness with a 30% reduction in gas price consumption and a 25% decrease in ethers consumption. These findings signify a significant step towards addressing challenges faced by traditional blockchain systems, providing valuable insights for future designs in blockchain technology.

Forecasting Natural Gas Prices With Deep Learning and Compressed Sensing Denoising

Forecasting Natural Gas Prices With Deep Learning and Compressed Sensing Denoising

Gas Price Shocks and Euro Area Inflation

Gas Price Shocks and Euro Area Inflation

CO₂ taxation and pricing of electricity, gas, district heating, and fuels

CO₂ taxation and pricing of electricity, gas, district heating, and fuels

Re-Approaching EU’s Energy Policy: The Vital Role of Nuclear Power

The energy cut-down that followed the Russo-Ukrainian war is the main cause of the recent skyrocketing gas prices, which are jeopardizing the stability of the EU’s internal energy market. Hence, the diversification of energy sources has become a major priority. In this context, nuclear power must be reconsidered as a reliable alternative energy source which can lead to the partial independence of the EU. The upper goal of energy security can only be achieved if the EU relies on an energy source, such as nuclear, that ensures availability, reliability, affordability, and sustainability – all, at once. This policy brief outlines the importance of nuclear energy as a key factor for the EU’s energy future and proposes measures that can be implemented to achieve a nuclear and green transition.

The Effect of Global Oil and Gas Prices and Production Fluctuations on the Economy of Nigeria

Once a cornerstone of the U.S. economy, crude oil production now experiences a paradigm shift, abundant for domestic consumption and export, signaling a lasting global oil price transformation. Despite a surge in U.S. hydrocarbon production and weakening oil prices, imports from Nigeria dramatically dropped from 1.5 million barrels per day in 2006 to 0.2 million in 2013, ceasing entirely by early 2014. Consequently, Nigeria faced a sudden depletion of trade surpluses and reduced foreign reserves. This study delves into the immediate and long-term challenges confronting Nigeria, particularly examining the impact of recent oil and gas price fluctuations on key macroeconomic factors. Findings highlight the balance of payments' high elasticity to oil price shifts and low elasticity to money supply changes with a coefficient of determination of 78.69%. Additionally, the exchange rate shows low elasticity to oil price changes and moderate elasticity to money supply variations with a coefficient of determination of 82.80%.

Reform of the European electricity market: Should we prefer a price based on a weighted average of marginal costs with cross-subsidies?

On the wholesale electricity market, the equilibrium price is set each hour on the basis of the marginal cost of the last power plant called, which is a gas-fired power plant a large part of the time in Europe. The surge in gas prices since the end of 2021 therefore largely explains the rise in the price of electricity. This paper analyses the reform projects proposed within the European Union to curb this surge in wholesale prices. It proposes then to reform the system by opting for pricing based on the weighted average hourly marginal costs, with financial compensation for power plants whose marginal cost is higher than this average. The quantitative study is conducted over the period January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2022 using ENTSOE hourly data. By implementing a compensation framework founded on average marginal costs, the market price experiences a significant decline, resulting in typically negative residual profits. Consequently, the fixed costs associated with the power plant fleet necessitate funding through the capacity market. This approach would enable French electricity consumers to align their payments with the structure of the national electricity fleet, specifically reflecting the average costs of power stations characterized by substantial fixed costs, such as nuclear facilities. The adoption of this proposed system is poised to expedite the energy transition toward a low-carbon economy.

A sequential real options analysis for renewable power-to-hydrogen plants for Germany and California

The novelty of large-scale green hydrogen technology with its numerous applications, and the competition with well-entrenched conventional technologies, still makes it difficult to operate renewable power-to-hydrogen (P2H) plants profitably. In this study, sequential investments in the P2H plants are investigated using a Real Options approach. The analysis addresses the question of what the optimal timing is for sequential investments in P2H modules that enable hydrogen feed-in into the gas grid in Germany and California, both pioneers in the sustainable energy transition. Choosing this approach, the uncertain and largely irreversible character of the P2H investments is tackled. Since the focus is on substituting natural gas by adding green hydrogen to the gas grid, the underlying asset considered as stochastic is the price of natural gas. It is modeled by applying a geometric Brownian motion process. The analysis conducted reveals that for both California and Germany polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolyzer systems are uneconomical in the foreseeable future, at least based on the assumptions made in the case studies. The required natural gas price level that would enable economic viability of gas grid feed-in exceeds the level of today's natural gas prices many times over. Without policy support (e.g., subsidies or quotas for green hydrogen, sufficiently high carbon tax), or an increased willingness to pay for green fuel on the customers' side, it is unlikely that the required minimum hydrogen price level for profitable business will be reached any time soon.

Economic Analysis of Gas Turbine Using to Increase Efficiency of the Organic Rankine Cycle

In this research, a modified organic Rankine cycle (ORC) system has been presented and examined. This system incorporates a gas turbine as an additional subsystem to boost the enthalpy of geothermal brine. The primary objective of this study is to perform an economic evaluation of the modified ORC system, wherein a gas turbine is utilized to enhance the quality of geothermal steam. The suggested modified ORC system is particularly well-suited for areas abundant in geothermal resources with low to medium temperatures. It offers a more effective utilization of such resources, resulting in improved efficiency. The study considered 10 different working fluids and 8 types of gas turbines used to heat the geothermal water brine witch, the temperature vary of which varies between 80–130 °C. Various flue gas temperatures behind the heat exchanger, as well as temperatures of the return of the geothermal water to the injection hole, were examined. Based on that, 990 variations of configuration have been analyzed. The research showed that the lowest simple payback time (SPBT) values were achieved for the SGT-800 gas turbine and the working fluid R1336mzz(Z), for example, for an electricity price equal 200 USD/MWh and a natural gas price equal to 0.4 USD/hg, resulting in a SPBT value of 1.45 years. Additionally, for this variant, the dependence of SPBT on the price of electricity and the depth of the geothermal well was calculated; assuming the depth of the geothermal well is 2000 m, SPBT changes depending on the adopted gas prices and so for 150 USD/MWh it is 2.2 years, while at the price of 100 USD/MWh it is 5.5 years. It can be concluded that a decrease in SPBT is observed with an increase in the price of electricity and a decrease in the depth of the geothermal well. The findings of this study can help us to better understand the need to utilize low and medium temperature geothermal heat by using combined cycles (including gas turbines), also from an economic point of view.

The effect of gas and oil prices on economic confidence: An empirical analysis for euro area

Energy prices are determinants of economic confidence by directly affecting production, consumption, and transportation costs. Nevertheless, countries’ energy policies and macroeconomic and geopolitical developments may moderate the impact of energy prices on economic confidence. This study analyzes the effects of oil and gas prices on business and confidence in the Euro Area over the period 1994–2023. We employ non-linear correlation and regression models to investigate the spillover relationship between the variables. For this purpose, the Markov Switching Regression (MSR) model is employed to analyze the spillover effect of oil and gas prices on both consumer and business confidence. The empirical results show that oil and gas prices harm consumer confidence in all regimes. Oil prices have a positive effect on business confidence in a volatility regime. However, oil prices negatively affect business confidence in low volatility, but this effect is insignificant. The effect of gas prices on the business confidence index is negative and statistically significant during periods of high volatility. Besides, gas prices positively affect business confidence for low volatility.

Defining trends in the evolution of the Russian gas market

The new “driving force” of the liberalization of the conditions for the functioning of the gas sector associated with demonopolization and the formation of an effective structure of the domestic gas market with a high level of competition and fair principles of the organization of natural gas trade for Russian consumers are the ongoing changes in the economic situation in the global energy market. Against the background of the expected decline in pipeline gas exports to Europe (the volume of decline may amount to 100 billion cubic meters in the medium term) it is important to focus efforts on the development of the domestic gas market, since the task in these conditions is more urgent than ever. First of all, to accelerate the transition to market pricing mechanisms (except for the population) using indicative prices on the stock exchange and within the framework of inter-fuel competition. Currently, gas prices in the domestic market are subsidized by exports, which, as mentioned above, is going to decrease, which in turn will lead to a decrease in such subsidies, and accordingly, there will be a need for higher rates of price growth in the domestic market. The importance of further development of gas exchange trading in Russia is emphasized on various government platforms. The main guidelines for improving the exchange mechanisms for the sale of natural gas are contained in the “National Plan (Roadmap) for the development of competition in the Russian Federation for 2021-2025”. It should be noted that the development of gas exchange trading should take place by increasing the economic attractiveness for participants, creating favorable economically conditioned prerequisites for an equal supply of gas to the exchange for all sellers, as well as developing an appropriate regulatory framework.

Complementarity of wind and solar power in North Africa: Potential for alleviating energy droughts and impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation

With growing gas and oil prices, electricity generation based on these fossil fuels is becoming increasingly expensive. Furthermore, the vision of natural gas as a transition fuel is subject to many constraints and uncertainties of economic, environmental, and geopolitical nature. Consequently, renewable energies such as solar and wind power are expected to reach new records of installed capacity over the upcoming years. Considering the above, North Africa is one of the regions with the largest renewable resource potential globally. While extensively studied in the literature, these resources remain underutilized. Thus, to contribute to their future successful deployment and integration with the power system, this study presents a spatial and temporal analysis of the nature of solar and wind resources over North Africa from the perspective of energy droughts. Both the frequency and maximal duration of energy droughts are addressed. Both aspects of renewables’ variable nature have been evaluated in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) context. The analysis considers the period between 1960 and 2020 based on hourly reanalysis data (i.e., near-surface shortwave irradiation, wind speed, and air temperature) and the Hurrel NAO index. The findings show an in-phase relationship between solar power and winter NAO index, particularly over the coastal regions in western North Africa and opposite patterns in its eastern part. For wind energy, the connection with NAO has a more zonal pattern, with negative correlations in the north and positive correlations in the south. Solar energy droughts dominate northern Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco, while wind energy droughts mainly occur in the Atlas Mountains range. On average, solar energy droughts tend not to exceed 2–3 consecutive days, with the longest extending for five days. Wind energy droughts can be as prolonged as 80 days (Atlas Mountains). Hybridizing solar and wind energy reduces the potential for energy droughts significantly. At the same time, the correlation between their occurrence and the NAO index remains low. These findings show the potential for substantial resilience to inter-annual climate variability, which could benefit the future stability of renewables-dominated power systems.

The Energy Commodities Price and The Energy Sector Index: Evidence from Indonesia Stock Exchange

Purpose: This study aims to determine the effect and correlation of daily and weekly returns on commodity prices on the IDX Energi index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Theoretical Framework: Commodities are goods in the form of raw materials or raw materials that have a selling value. Energy commodities are mining products in the form of extracted fossils which can be used as energy sources. Stock price indices can be divided into several categories, namely stock market indices, sectoral stock price indices and individual stock prices. The stock market index is a representation of the total listed stock prices based on certain criteria and methods and is evaluated periodically. Method: The research period used was January 25 2021 to July 30 2023. The analysis technique used was multiple regression and Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Results: The results showed that the daily and weekly returns from energy commodities had a significant positive effect on the return on the IDX Energy index. Weekly returns on commodity prices can predict returns on the IDX Energi index better than daily returns. Energy commodities are also correlated with the IDX Energi index, but the dynamic correlation pattern of natural gas price returns to the IDX Energi index is different from the dynamic correlation pattern between world oil and coal prices. In general, returns on oil, natural gas and coal prices have an effect and are correlated with returns on the IDX Energi index. Conclusions: The research results can be used as a decision making in investing, especially investing in companies that are included in the IDX Energi sector. The weekly return of the IDX Energi index can be predicted through returns on energy commodity prices, but the contribution is still small. Subsequent research can add new variables that can affect the movement or return of the IDX Energi index, besides that it can examine with a longer sample period.

Henry Hub monthly natural gas price forecasting using CEEMDAN–Bagging–HHO–SVR

As a clean fossil energy source, natural gas plays a crucial role in the global energy transition. Forecasting natural gas prices is an important area of research. This paper aims at developing a novel hybrid model that contributes to the prediction of natural gas prices. We develop a novel hybrid model that combines the “Decomposition Algorithm” (CEEMDAN), “Ensemble Algorithm” (Bagging), “Optimization Algorithm” (HHO), and “Forecasting model” (SVR). The hybrid model is used for monthly Henry Hub natural gas forecasting. To avoid the problem of data leakage caused by decomposing the whole time series, we propose a rolling decomposition algorithm. In addition, we analyzed the factors affecting Henry Hub natural gas prices for multivariate forecasting. Experimental results indicate that the proposed model is more effective than the traditional model at predicting natural gas prices.

Implications of electricity and gas price coupling in US New England region

The tight coupling between electricity and gas has put the US New England region at constant risk of electricity price spikes due to a shortage of gas supplies, especially in the wake of limited natural gas supply in 2022. Here, we investigate the electricity-gas price couplings in the six states in New England from 2006 to 2022. We found that the price coupling in New England has been high and consistent in the past five years across all states, despite varying levels of gas-fired power generation. Additionally, we anticipate it will remain high even with increasing renewables by 2030. Furthermore, the price coupling exhibits an asymmetrical influence with electricity prices closely tracking gas prices, while gas prices are weakly affected by electricity price variations. Our findings also suggest that promoting electricity-gas cooperations could potentially mitigate the asymmetrical influence and electricity price spikes in New England.

Analysis of nuclear microreactor efficacy with hydrogen production methods

A major issue with the economic validity of nuclear power technologies is their rate of return on investment. Since these systems have high expected initial capital costs, it is difficult to instill investment confidence against the backdrop of untested construction and operation. Nonetheless, emerging nuclear technologies such as microreactors remain promising as their output is carbon-free and the high outlet temperature associated with many microreactor concepts enables them to generate process heat that can power industrial processes, thereby widening their versatility beyond electricity generation. The pairing of these systems with higher value commodities, such as hydrogen, could potentially improve the economic viability of microreactors. Hydrogen production has become a subject of great interest in recent years for numerous applications such as for transportation, metal refining, and fertilizers. With a profitable microreactor-powered hydrogen production system, the price dependency of these applications and downstream commodities on the volatile natural gas prices can be reduced. In this work, the pairing of a microreactor with natural gas reforming (NGR) and high-temperature electrolysis (HTE) was modeled and it was found that a 10 MWth to 20 MWth microreactor could become economically viable through revenue from hydrogen production. The technology-agnostic microreactor energy source paired with the NGR and HTE plants was able to generate achievable principal loan values that were above $4.5 M/MWth for a 15 MWth reactor over a 20-year period. The cost of a first-of-a-kind microreactor according to available estimates exceeded the average achievable loan values for the HTE system while the NGR system was able to achieve these estimates within 21 years. The pairing of HTE with autothermal reforming was also investigated and it was found to be uncompetitive as compared with NGR and HTE.

Effect of geopolitical risk on resources prices in the global and Russian-Ukrainian context: A novel Bayesian structural model

This study evaluated the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on natural resources (NRs) by employing monthly from January 1990 to January 2023 and daily data from 3rd January 2022 to 31st March 2022. The outcomes using wavelet QQ and novel Bayesian structural model reveal that GPR has a more profound impact on oil prices (in a quantile range of 0.4–0.8), natural gas prices (range of quartiles from 0.4 to 0.8) and gold prices (in a range of lower to upper quantiles) exhibiting that they are more sensitive to geopolitical uncertainties at all levels. The effects of geopolitical risk are also prominent on palm oil in lower to upper quantile (0.2–0.7) and urea in medium or upper quantile, showing that higher uncertainty drives their prices. In contrast, the response of iron ore (IO) was observed only in upper quantiles (0.7–0.8). The results of the causal analysis reveal that the Russia-Ukraine conflict positively impact NRs prices and that there was a rapid divergence from counterfactual projections. Our findings bear significant implications for sample economies highlighting the alternatives to cope with the GPR and its consequences for natural resource prices.

Economic Evaluation of a 1 MWel Capacity Power-to-Biomethane System

Power-to-biomethane (bio-P2M) is a novel technology that combines the long-term storage of periodically available renewable energy sources (RES) and the upgrading of biogas. This article introduces a complex economic analysis of a 1 megawatt electric (MWel) capacity bio-P2M system based on economic characteristics considered to be typical in practice. The evaluation includes an investment analysis to present the basic scenario, a sensitivity analysis and a unit cost calculation to show the economic viability, the cost structure and the possible reserves of the synthetic natural gas (SNG) as a final output. The risk analysis is executed using Monte Carlo simulation, and the final results are the mean and standard deviation of the outputs, distribution functions and probabilities. Our results show that a significant state subsidy would be needed to boost competitiveness either in terms of investment costs (44% in our calculation) or in technology development to improve technological effectiveness. Another important competitiveness issue is the full utilization of the plant and the lowest possible price for the electricity used. If both cannot be optimized at the same time, then the first one is more important. Natural gas prices and the full utilization of waste heat might result in smaller changes.

Exploring the influence of the geopolitical risks on the natural resource price volatility and correlation: Evidence from DCC-MIDAS-X model

This paper uses the expanded dynamic conditional correlation mixed data sampling (DCC-MIDAS-X) model to examine the impact of low-frequency geopolitical risks (GPR) on high-frequency volatility and the correlation of natural resource prices. The empirical results show that GPR and its sub-indices can significantly affect the volatility and correlation of natural resources. The increase in Geopolitical Threats (GPRT) significantly affects the long-run volatility of European Union Allowance (EUA) and Brent crude oil prices. Geopolitical Acts (GPRA) mainly affect the long-run volatility of natural gas prices. In addition, the long-run correlation coefficient, long-run correlation coefficient indicates a competitive relationship between natural resources. Finally, increased GPR and GPRT can significantly reduce the long-run correlation between natural resources. Based on its conclusions, this research makes policy suggestions for businesses and the government. Investors should effectively identify different types of geopolitical risks and their influences to reduce losses and optimize investments. Governments could adjust their policies appropriately to avoid economic shocks due to natural resource volatility caused by geopolitical risks and ensure a stable supply of natural resources.

Gas price shocks, the current account, and the real exchange rate: An empirical analysis for the EU

The aim of this paper is to analyse how gas price shocks affect the real exchange rate (RER) and the current account (CA) for a panel of countries from the EU28. We estimate VAR models and account for the possibility of asymmetric effects in gas price shocks. Our results show that the effects on the RER and CA are short-lived and that there are asymmetries in some cases.