Galapagos National Park Research Articles

RESERVA MARINA GALÁPAGOS

The “Galapagos Islands” represent a unique ecosystem in the world, home for an internationally recognized mega diversity. The islands have two protected areas: the “Galapagos National Park” and the “Galapagos Marine Reserve”, considered one of the most ecologically rich areas. Over the years, there has been legal, environmental and social recognition of the islands, which is a great step towards their protection, although this does not mean that they are not facing major challenges.

The bumpy road to conservation: Challenges and opportunities in updating the Galapagos zoning system

In 2014, the Galapagos National Park Directorate, sponsored by various international non-governmental organizations, initiated a comprehensive marine and terrestrial spatial planning process to improve the management effectiveness of Galapagos’ protected areas. This effort aimed to reconfigure management areas by expanding or redistributing no-take zones to protect Key Biodiversity Areas and ensure the conservation of at least 30% of terrestrial and marine ecosystems in the Galapagos. However, this process encountered significant challenges, notably the erosion of fishers' trust following the implementation of a "Marine Sanctuary". This top-down decision resulted in socio-political tension, compelling the Ecuadorian government to delay the implementation of the new marine zoning until there was conclusive scientific data on its socio-economic impact on local small-scale fishers’ livelihoods. This paper examines the achievements and shortcomings of the Galapagos zoning update process, highlighting the successful integration of scientific zoning criteria and the enhanced protection of critical biodiversity areas, together with the reduced support from fishers and legal disputes. To move forward, we recommended a bottom-up approach centered on rebuilding trust among the fishing community via innovative engagement strategies and the introduction of market incentives to promote sustainable practices. Assessing the long-term impact of no-take zones is essential for refining management approaches. Additionally, the application of cutting-edge technology within an adaptive co-management model is recommended to improve fisheries and ecological data gathering and analysis, facilitating proactive and well-informed management decisions. Our suggestions aim to reconcile conservation objectives with the needs and aspirations of the local communities in this iconic archipelago.

Habitat restoration to conserve the Little Vermilion Flycatcher on Santa Cruz Island, Galapagos.

The endemic Little Vermilion Flycatcher (LVF), Pyrocephalus nanus, has suffered a drastic decline on Santa Cruz Island, where it was common 30 years ago. Currently, less than 40 individuals remain in the last remnants of natural humid forest in the Galapagos National Park on this island. This small population has low reproductive success, which is contributing to its decline in Santa Cruz. Previous studies have identified Avian Vampire Fly, Philornis downsi, parasitism, changes in food sources, and habitat alteration as threats to this species. In Santa Cruz, invasive plants may strongly affect the reproductive success of the LVF because they limit accessibility to prey near the ground, the preferred foraging niche of these birds. Since 2019, we restored the vegetation in seven plots of one hectare each by removing invasive blackberry plants and other introduced plant species. In all nests that reached late incubation, we also reduced the number of Avian Vampire Fly larvae. In this study, we compared foraging and perch height, pair formation, incubation time and reproductive success between managed and unmanaged areas. As predicted, we found significantly lower foraging height and perch height in 2021 in managed areas compared to unmanaged areas. In 2020, daily failure rate (DFR) of nests in the egg stage did not differ between management types; however, in 2021, DFR in the egg stage was significantly lower in managed areas than in unmanaged areas. The DFR during the nestling stage was similar between managed and unmanaged areas in 2020, but in 2021, only nests in managed areas reached the nestling stage. Females brooded significantly more during the incubation phase in managed areas. Additionally, we found significantly higher reproductive success in managed areas compared to unmanaged areas in 2021, but not in 2020. Habitat restoration is a long-term process and these findings suggest that habitat management positively affects this small population in the long term.

Linking animal migration and ecosystem processes: Data-driven simulation of propagule dispersal by migratory herbivores.

Animal migration is a key process underlying active subsidies and species dispersal over long distances, which affects the connectivity and functioning of ecosystems. Despite much research describing patterns of where animals migrate, we still lack a framework for quantifying and predicting how animal migration affects ecosystem processes. In this study, we aim to integrate animal movement behavior and ecosystem functioning by developing a predictive modeling framework that can inform ecosystem management and conservation.We propose a framework to model individual‐level migration trajectories between populations' seasonal ranges as well as the resulting dispersal and fate of propagules carried by the migratory animals, which can be calibrated using empirical data at every step of the modeling process. As a case study, we applied our framework to model the spread of guava seeds, Psidium guajava, by a population of migratory Galapagos tortoises, Chelonoidis porteri, across Santa Cruz Island. Galapagos tortoises are large herbivores that transport seeds and nutrients across the island, while Guava is one of the most problematic invasive species in the Galapagos archipelago.Our model can predict the pattern of spread of guava seeds alongside tortoises' downslope migration range, and it identified areas most likely to see establishment success. Our results show that Galapagos tortoises' seed dispersal may particularly contribute to guava range expansion on Santa Cruz Island, due to both long gut retention time and tortoise's long‐distance migration across vegetation zones. In particular, we predict that tortoises are dispersing a significant amount of guava seeds into the Galapagos National Park, which has important consequences for the native flora.The flexibility and modularity of our framework allow for the integration of multiple data sources. It also allows for a wide range of applications to investigate how migratory animals affect ecosystem processes, including propagule dispersal but also other processes such as nutrient transport across ecosystems. Our framework is also a valuable tool for predicting how animal‐mediated propagule dispersal can be affected by environmental change. These different applications can have important conservation implications for the management of ecosystems that include migratory animals.

Temporal Monitoring of the Floreana Island Galapagos Giant Tortoise Captive Breeding Program.

Captive breeding programs benefit from genetic analyses that identify relatedness between individuals, assign parentage to offspring, and track levels of genetic diversity. Monitoring these parameters across breeding cycles is critical to the success of a captive breeding program as it allows conservation managers to iteratively evaluate and adjust program structure. However, in practice, genetic tracking of breeding outcomes is rarely conducted. Here, we examined the first three offspring cohorts (2017-2020) of the genetically informed captive breeding program for the Floreana Island Galapagos giant tortoise, Chelonoidis niger. This captive breeding program is unique as the Floreana tortoise has been extinct since the 1800s, but its genome persists, in part, in the form of living hybrids with the extant Volcano Wolf tortoise, C. becki. Breeding over the study period took place at the Galapagos National Park Directorate breeding facility in four corrals, each containing three females and two males. Using 17 microsatellite markers, we were able to assign parentage to 94 of the 98 offspring produced over the study period. We observe that despite the addition of more founders since the pilot breeding program, the effective population size remains low, and changes to the arrangements of breeding corrals may be necessary to encourage more equal reproductive output from the males. This study demonstrates the value of hybrids for species restoration and the importance of continually reassessing the outcomes of captive breeding.

Health assessments uncover novel viral sequences in five species of Galapagos tortoises.

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) have been reported as causes of morbidity and mortality in free-living animal populations, including turtles and tortoises, and they have even resulted in species extinctions, with human activities contributing to the spread of many of these diseases. In the Galapagos, giant tortoises are endangered due to habitat change, invasive species, and other human impacts; however, the impact of EIDs on Galapagos tortoise conservation remains understudied. To fill this gap, we conducted health assessments of five tortoise species from the islands of Santa Cruz, Isabela and Española. We performed health evaluations of 454 animals and PCR testing for pathogens known to be relevant in other tortoise species. We identified two novel sequences of adenoviruses and four of herpesviruses. Based on alignments of the DNA polymerase gene and maximum likelihood phylogenetic analyses, we found both novel adenoviruses to be most closely related to red footed tortoise adenovirus 2, by nucleotide sequence and red footed tortoise adenovirus 1, based on amino acid sequence. Three of the herpesvirus sequences translated into the same deduced amino acid sequence; therefore, they may be considered the same viral species, closely related to terrapene herpesvirus 2. The fourth herpesvirus sequence was highly divergent from any sequence previously detected and is related to an eagle owl herpesvirus based on nucleotide sequence and to loggerhead oro-cutaneous herpesvirus based on amino acids. These novel viruses may be pathogenic for giant tortoises under specific conditions (e.g., stress). Continued screening is crucial to determine if these viruses play a role in tortoise fitness, morbidity and survival. This information allows us to provide recommendations to the Galapagos National Park Directorate and other institutions to improve the management of these unique species both in Galapagos and globally, and for tortoise reintroduction plans throughout the archipelago.

An exploratory study: the importance of human resources in hotel performance in the Galapagos Islands

The Galapagos National Park is one of the most famous tourist attractions in Ecuador and an icon of the country. In 2018, the Galapagos Islands received 275,817 tourists, representing a 14% growth compared to 2017. Despite the ecological and tourist importance of these islands, the hotel industry faces significant challenges in its companies’ professional management. One of the biggest problems that decision-makers encounter is the lack of information about the hotel management performance in the islands. For this reason, this research focuses on three points: (i) a study on the hotel industry reality, (ii) the implementation of an analysis tool to assess the efficiency of hotel management which allows a correct comparison among them, and (iii) a review of the professionalization of the industry. The chosen model is the Data Envelopment Analysis for its unique characteristics and because it has been widely used and tested in the tourism industry. The findings obtained in this study show that hotel performance is unbalanced caused by the unique features existing in this land and by the formal education obtained by the general managers.

Shifting demand to sustainable fishing practices in Darwin's Archipelago: a discrete choice experiment application for Galapagos' certified Yellow-fin tuna

In spite of several policies to promote fisheries management in the Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR), in the past there has been a collapse or near collapse of the two most important fisheries: the sea cucumber and the lobster fishery respectively. Currently, there is particular concern for the Galapagos Sailfin Grouper (Mycteroperca olfax), a regionally endemic species showing signs of severe decline and targeted by the white-fin fishery, a multi-species coastal fishery of high market value. Within this context, the Galapagos National Park Directorate (GNPD) and local NGOs have designed a policy consistent in a product certification scheme aiming to shift fishing efforts from depleted coastal fisheries to healthier pelagic stocks, whilst supporting artisanal fisher’s livelihoods. Using a discrete choice experiment and accompanying survey data, the goal of this research is to analyze the preferences and tradeoffs made by individuals across attributes when purchasing certified fish in the Galapagos. In particular, we account for pro-environmental attitudes within a WTP space model specification and estimate the expected price premiums that tourists would be willing to pay for yellowfin tuna in the area in light of specific characteristics of its local value chain. We find that tourists visiting the Galapagos hold pro environmental attitudes as measured by the New-ecological paradigm and that there is a considerable increase in consumer’s utility from a certification scheme. Tourists care about the level of bycatch associated with their consumption, food safety, quality, and whether is locally sourced, and would be willing to pay for these attributes. This evidence, driven by location specific characteristics of consumers and tourists, supports the design of market-based mechanisms for sustainable yellow fin tuna fisheries in the Galapagos

Tourist Preferences for Seamount Conservation in the Galapagos Marine Reserve

Seamounts provide oases of hard substrate in the deep sea that are frequently associated with locally enhanced biological productivity and diversity. There is now increasing recognition of their ecological and socio-economic importance. However, management strategies for these habitats are constrained not only by limited ecological understanding but by the general public’s understanding of the pressures facing these ecosystems. This study adds to the growing literature on willingness to pay for conservation of deep-sea ecosystems and species by undertaking a stated preference survey to assess tourist’s awareness of seamounts and their preferences for protection within the Galapagos Marine Reserve. Visitors’ perceptions of seamount biodiversity must be studied because tourists are key drivers of the Galapagos economy and account for 41% of the Marine Reserve budget. Our survey captured the attitudes, perceptions and willingness to pay of tourists for an increase in the entrance fee to the Galapagos Marine Reserve. Results showed tourists were willing to pay on average US$48.93 in addition to existing entrance fees. The results of this study support the willingness to develop a multiuse management plan for the Galapagos Marine Reserve, balancing conservation, local communities livelihoods and sustainable tourism. Our results evidence a willingness to support and fund conservation, which is of critical importance to both the Galapagos National Park and local non-governmental organizations heavily reliant for their work on entrance fees and donations respectively. Overall, the conclusion from this study is that, despite limited knowledge, visitors of the Galapagos Islands attach positive and significant values to the conservation of seamount biodiversity.

Market Segmentation Based on Ecotourism Motivations in Marine Protected Areas and National Parks in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador

Carvache-Franco, M.; Carvache-Franco, W., and Manner-Baldeon, F., 2021. Market segmentation based on ecotourism motivations in marine protected areas and national parks in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador. Journal of Coastal Research, 37(3), 620–633. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Demand segmentation in ecotourism is a strategy that supports efficient planning for the conservation of resources. This study aimed to create a market segmentation based on ecotourism motivations for protected areas on islands. Data were collected through a questionnaire given to 822 tourists on the Galapagos Islands, a province of Ecuador. The Galapagos Archipelago is located in the Pacific Ocean and has been declared a World Heritage Site by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (2019). It is of volcanic origin surrounded by marine currents. It is made up of two protected areas: Galapagos National Park, which covers the land surface, and the Galapagos Marine Reserve, which protects the marine environment. The findings were later evaluated with a factor analysis and a K-means clustering method. The results showed that there are six motivational dimensions, labeled: self-development, interpersonal relationships and ego-defensive function, escape, building personal relationships, nature appreciation, and reward. Three groups of tourists were identified. The first, the reward and escape group, had high motivations related to nature, experiencing new things, exploring the unknown, fun, escaping the routine, and destressing. The second, multiple motives tourists, scored highly on all motivational variables. Finally, nature tourists had high motivation in aspects related to nature. These results offer a basis for tourism service providers to develop specific products adapted to various tourist motivations, to improve offers adapted to tourist expectations, to increase satisfaction and tourist return rate, and ultimately to benefit the economy of marine protected areas and national parks with higher employment and income. This study also can help public institutions design appropriate plans for visitors to these island protected areas.

Characterization and Classification of Agricultural Production Systems in the Galapagos Islands (Ecuador)

The low level of agricultural productivity within the production systems in the insular region of Galapagos is caused by the lack of sustainable technologies accordingly to the insular conservation regime. As a consequence, producers face low productivity and economic losses, which result in low levels of incomes and hasten the change from agricultural to tourist activities. With consequent abandonment of productive lands, the presence of invasive species and pathogens has become a growing threat to the biodiversity of the Galapagos National Park. For this reason, it is necessary to generate and disseminate technologies adapted to the prevalent production systems in the islands. Primary data were collected through face-to-face surveys in a sample of 208 producers from 4 islands during the period from July to November 2018. Multivariate analyses (principal components and cluster) were applied to characterize and classify typical agricultural production systems. The results show three types of systems, differentiated mainly by the technology used in the management of agricultural production, that influence the yields of crops and of animal products such as beef and milk, which cannot satisfy the demand for food on the islands, which has created the dependence on imports to cover the production gap. The definition of the types of agricultural production systems can help in identifying sustainable production alternatives that integrate local social and environmental needs. This is one of the very few technical descriptions of farms on the islands and should be used by policymakers to plan interventions.

The effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on expected tourism revenues for natural preservation. The case of the Galapagos Islands

ABSTRACT This research reports the effects of Coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak on expected tourism revenues for preservation in the Galapagos Islands, a well-known international tourism destination. We explore the trends and construct a seasonal index to estimate the expected number of visitors in the Galapagos National Park (GNP) as well as the potential revenue from the fee entrance in the park, which is used for preservation activities. Our results indicate that in our optimistic scenario, losses would account for half of the revenues in 2020,having a high impact on the Galapagos National Park preservation activities. Based on our results, we recommend GNP and Ecuadorian authorities to look for alternative sources of funding, so conservation programs in the park can continue with no interruption.

Arthropoda; Crustacea; Decapoda of deep-sea volcanic habitats of the Galapagos Marine Reserve, Tropical Eastern Pacific.

BackgroundThe deep-sea biome (> 200 m depth) is the world’s last great wilderness, covering more than 65% of the earth’s surface. Due to rapid technological advances, deep-sea environments are becoming more accessible to scientific research and ocean exploration around the world and, in recent years, this is also true for the Galapagos Islands. Deep-sea habitats cover the largest proportion of Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR), yet to date, no comprehensive baseline exists on the biodiversity of the benthic fauna associated with volcanic seafloor formations within this region. Closing this knowledge gap is essential to provide information for decision-making for the management of marine resources within the GMR and assessing any potential changes in biodiversity resulting from climate-driven alterations that deep-sea environments are expected to experience. In 2015, the Charles Darwin Foundation’s Seamounts of the GMR Research Project, together with the Galapagos National Park Directorate (GNPD) and Ocean Exploration Trust (OET), conducted a joint expedition on board the EV Nautilus. Using Remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), the aim of the expedition was to characterise the geological formations and biological communities present on seamounts, lava flows and other deep-sea habitats (> 200 m) within the GMR.New informationWe provide the first comprehensive image inventory for the phylum Arthropoda from 260 to 3400 m of depth within the GMR. Past studies on deep-sea macroinvertebrates in the GMR have been limited to voucher samples collected from dredging (restricted to soft bottom environments) or by submersibles (only allowing limited biological sampling). The image inventory, presented here, is based on high-definition video transects conducted by the Hercules ROV on board the EV Nautilus. Images of macroinvertebrate morphospecies were captured, catalogued and identified, thus providing the first known image inventory of in-situ macroinvertebrate species from the deep-sea region of the GMR.We present 32 distinct morphospecies occurrences within the class Malacostraca and order Decapoda. We also report 17 different families, three species that are new records to the GMR, in-situ images of two new species to science recently described and one possible new squat lobster, as well as interesting behavioural observations.

Economic valuation of recreational attributes using a choice experiment approach: An application to the Galapagos Islands

Despite the increasing number of visitors to Galapagos National Park, the tourism industry pays little attention to the distinct preferences of tourists toward park attributes, including both its natural resources and managerial emphasis. To “monetize” the benefits of these attributes requires utilizing nonmarket valuation techniques. Using a stated preference questionnaire, we estimated the economic value of the park’s recreational attributes. The following five attributes were selected: endangered species, prevalence of garbage, site infrastructure, air quality, and entrance fees. The results of this study demonstrate that tourists place the highest willingness to pay values on increased protection of animal species (US$26.9) and garbage reduction (US$111.2). These results highlight the economic contributions for park management, with a potential for value improvement of US$38.1 per tourist if the park’s combined attributes are upgraded from the present condition to the optimum condition.

Weed management increases the detrimental effect of an invasive parasite on arboreal Darwin's finches

The detrimental effects of invasive parasites on hosts often increase under poor environmental conditions. Both natural fluctuations in environmental conditions and habitat management measures can temporarily cause adverse environmental effects. In this study, we investigated the interaction between the invasive parasitic fly Philornis downsi, control of invasive plants and precipitation on the breeding success of Darwin's finches. Introduced plant species have invaded a unique forest on the Galapagos island of Santa Cruz, which is a key habitat for Darwin's finches. The Galapagos National Park Directorate applies manual control and herbicides to combat this invasion. We hypothesized that these measures led to a reduction in the arthropod food supply during chick rearing, which in turn caused mortality in chicks that were already weakened by parasitism. We compared food availability in three study sites of varying degrees of weed management. To assess the interaction of parasitism and weed management, we experimentally reduced P. downsi abundance in nests in all three study sites. The key result suggests that there is an increase in the adverse effect of parasitism under unfavourable habitat conditions. As predicted, we found a negative additive effect of parasitism and weed management on the breeding success of the insectivorous warbler finch (Certhidea olivacea), but not on the omnivorous small tree finch (Camarhynchus parvulus), which was strongly affected by parasitism independently of weed management. Management measures can temporarily decrease environmental quality and reduce resistance/tolerance to invasive species. This should be considered when applying management measures to habitats of vulnerable species.

Trapped in nature: discourses on humanity in processes of environmental naturalization

<p>The naturalization of protected areas is based on the discursive redefinition of both the environment and the social actors that inhabit it. This article studies how, within the processes associated with the creation and management of protected areas, discourses are generated that define humanity in relation to nature and its effects on access to resources and power relations. These processes are analyzed on the basis of a comparative ethnographic case study of El Manu National Park (Amazon, Peru) and the Galapagos National Park (Ecuador). Finally, it is concluded that discourses on humanity are instrumental in the processes for legitimizing or delegitimizing the role played by locals within protected areas, depending on attributed proximity or distance of humans to nature.</p><p><strong>Key words</strong>: nature, naturalization, humans, discourse, protected areas, Amazon, Galapagos</p><p> </p>

A methodology for mapping native and invasive vegetation coverage in archipelagos

This study develops a mixed, systematic, low-cost methodology to define and map native vegetation and the spread of the most aggressive invasive species in islands biomes, focusing on the Galápagos National Park (GNP). Based on preliminary legends defined by experts, Landsat 8/OLI fusion imagery was used for object-oriented classification to obtain the vegetation map of this archipelago. This technique was later verified and validated using high-resolution images from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, i.e., drones) and dedicated satellites, ground truthing, and visual confirmation around GNP coasts. This mixed methodology allowed mapping of nine native ecosystems, six invasive-dominated vegetation units, and two types of lavas. Around 53.63% of GNP is covered by native ecosystems and ∼2.2% is “canopy” dominated by invasive species to date. Native-dominated deciduous forest types cover ∼40.8% of the GNP and only ∼12.8% of the protected area is nowadays covered by humid and transitional type native ecosystems. Among humid native ecosystems, those distributed in the highlands only cover 4.8% and are highly threatened by invasive species, which are mostly distributed in these summit areas. Of the five islands (out of 18) recording invasive-dominated units, Isabela and Santa Cruz were the most infested. Cedrela odorata, Pennisetum purpureum, and Psidium guajava were the main invasive plants dominating the GNP canopy. Highly noxious Rubus niveus was the only invasive species dominating areas among the five infested islands. Methodology detailed here proved useful to provide accurate spatially-explicit islands vegetation data, potential for replication in time, and is expected to aid suitable management of highly endangered and unique biotas in this and other tropical island biomes.

Evaluating the effectiveness of coastal no-take zones of the Galapagos Marine Reserve for the red spiny lobster, Panulirus penicillatus

Monitoring and assessing the effectiveness of no-take zones (NTZs) is critical, not just for the effective management of marine resources, but also for informing and gaining support from community stakeholders. The Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) established a network of coastal NTZs in 2001, yet, to date no study has investigated their effectiveness in protecting and enabling key species to recover. Using data from the Galapagos National Park Directorate annual Lobster Population Monitoring Program from 2012 to 2014, this study evaluated the recovery of the commercially valuable red spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) inside NTZs in the GMR. It was hypothesized that NTZs would present higher lobster abundances or sizes when compared with adjacent fished zones. However, the study found no significant differences in these comparisons. Overall the findings indicate that > 11 years of protection has had no appreciable effect on lobster abundances or sizes inside the NTZs. This paper explores possible reasons for the lack of response in NTZs, and concluded that non-compliance and shortcomings within the enforcement framework of the GMR are the key factors limiting the functionality of these NTZs. Additionally, it also evaluates the limitations of the current monitoring program and highlights the need for a more comprehensive and long-term program to be implemented. As the new zoning scheme for NTZs in the GMR that began in 2016 is still to be determined, this information should be considered by decision makers to improve the effectiveness of NTZs and sustainable management of the GRM's coastal resources.

Plant species dispersed by Galapagos tortoises surf the wave of habitat suitability under anthropogenic climate change.

Native biodiversity on the Galapagos Archipelago is severely threatened by invasive alien species. On Santa Cruz Island, the abundance of introduced plant species is low in the arid lowlands of the Galapagos National Park, but increases with elevation into unprotected humid highlands. Two common alien plant species, guava (Psidium guajava) and passion fruit (Passiflora edulis) occur at higher elevations yet their seeds are dispersed into the lowlands by migrating Galapagos tortoises (Chelonoidis spp.). Tortoises transport large quantities of seeds over long distances into environments in which they have little or no chance of germination and survival under current climate conditions. However, climate change is projected to modify environmental conditions on Galapagos with unknown consequences for the distribution of native and introduced biodiversity. We quantified seed dispersal of guava and passion fruit in tortoise dung piles and the distribution of adult plants along two elevation gradients on Santa Cruz to assess current levels of ‘wasted’ seed dispersal. We computed species distribution models for both taxa under current and predicted future climate conditions. Assuming that tortoise migratory behaviour continues, current levels of “wasted” seed dispersal in lowlands were projected to decline dramatically in the future for guava but not for passion fruit. Tortoises will facilitate rapid range expansion for guava into lowland areas within the Galapagos National Park where this species is currently absent. Coupled with putative reduction in arid habitat for native species caused by climate change, tortoise driven guava invasion will pose a serious threat to local plant communities.

Scenario planning for tourism management: a participatory and system dynamics model applied to the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador

ABSTRACTThis paper presents a decision-support system based on a system dynamics model designed to examine tourism management in the Galapagos Islands. A participatory approach was used to integrate the views of multiple stakeholders in the Galapagos Islands and to build an understandable, graphical representation of the impacts of tourism and residential population growth. Each subsystem is examined through hypotheses involving three scenarios of tourism growth that are associated with different residential population expansions. A number of integrative and linked social-ecological effects in our model have been shown to severely shock the natural environment of the Galapagos and saturate the capacity of several socio-economic subsystems. Major concerns of the expanding human dimension in the Galapagos are represented by (1) the growing number of introduced species that threaten the Islands’ unique natural environment, and (2) the rapid saturation of the Galapagos National Park's tourism reception capacity. The model relies upon real data to specify rules, relationships, and rates of exchange that are derived through statistical functions and/or functions specified in theory or practice. The presented decision-support system is a quantitative scenario-planning tool that can be used by policy-makers to achieve an enhanced understanding of the Galapagos Islands as a coupled human–natural system.