Futures Thinking Research Articles

Imagining with imaginable: A Holistic Approach to Futures Thinking

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought attention to how interconnected and dependent the globe is, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive and team effort to address local, regional, and international sustainable development issues. The ability to receive and understand data from the outside world, our inner world of emotions, and our memories is known as imagination. It serves as a display for rational evaluation, introspection, and imaginative creation of our instincts, perceptions, emotions, thoughts, and conceptions. The capacity for creative imagination is the capacity to combine sensations and notions to create original ideas that are not always logical or true. We need to be conscious of the three filters that imagination uses to analyze information: the emotional, the intellectual, and the creative. We may create a more comprehensive and integrated approach to problem-solving and decision-making by comprehending these filters and how they interact. The "Theory of Imagination and Imaginables" and the "Model of Imaginables" are presented in this work using an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approach. We may design sustainable, just, and compassionate futures by practicing creativity and using a multidisciplinary approach to problem-solving. In addition to contributing to the emerging field of future studies, this study offers a valuable framework for people and organizations trying to understand the intricacies of our linked world.

Incorporating futures thinking into the theory of change: Case and lessons learned from a social enterprise intermediary in Australia

AbstractThe theory of change is an established, widely used approach to guide the design, implementation, and evaluation of change initiatives. Methodological literature primarily focuses on this approach as a way to model causal processes and, secondarily, as a participatory way for groups to explore a change process. We elevate a third use of a theory of change process: to (re)imagine future possibilities. Part 1 synthesizes prior literature to contrast three purposes (i.e., explanation, exploration, and (re)imagination) and emphasizes the opportunities for forward‐looking, imaginative uses by combining the theory of change with foresight approaches. Part 2 presents a case example of a year‐long process to reimagine how to support social enterprises and women entrepreneurs in Australia and the Pacific involving iterative co‐development of a theory of change complemented by futures thinking. We close with lessons and future directions at the intersection of the theory of change and futures studies.

Futures Thinking in Middle School Science Textbooks

This research aims to illuminate the characteristics of "Futures Thinking" components within the interdisciplinary units of "Science, Technology, and Humanity" and "Nature and Humanity" and "Sustainable development" within Japanese middle school science textbooks. Grounded in pre-existing literatures, this research meticulously organizes the essential competencies of future-oriented thinking into three distinct components: "Envisioning the Future," "Predicting the Future," and "Planning for the Future." Each component is further broken down into more precise indicators. For "Envisioning the Future," indicators include perspectives on "Multiple Futures," the "Science of Future," and "Hope and Fears." For "Predicting the Future," we delve into the "Scenario" technique, alongside "Forecasting" and "Backcasting" strategies. "Planning for the Future" assesses the "Precautionary" approach, "Evaluating Action," and understanding "Risk and Changes." The research involved a cross-sectional analysis of content types (such as texts, diagrams) and contexts (individual, regional, national, and global), determining the presence or absence of these indicators. The findings reveal: (1) a more frequent articulation of these competencies within the "Science, Technology, and Humans" unit, (2) a scant representation of "Multiple Futures" and "Scenario" methods among the nine indicators, (3) a prevalence of explanatory text in presenting these concepts, and (4) a consistent inclination towards a global context in the textbooks' narratives. These insights imply an extant gap within the current pedagogical tools, underscoring the importance of an expanded, multifaceted approach to teaching these competencies. The implications for future curriculum development and instructional strategies in middle school science education are profound, necessitating a more integrated approach that resonates with the uncertainties and possibilities of the future.

Empowering Next-Generation Health Professionals with Futures Thinking and Strategic Foresight Skills.

It is crucial to equip our next-generation healthcare professionals with futures thinking and strategic foresight skills as they confront the demands and challenges of the volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous, diverse, and disruptive (VUCAD2)world. In this paper, I contend that such skills mustbe embedded in health education curricula, part of the qualification standards in hiring healthcare professionals, and beintegrated in health licensure requirements. The crucial role of health workers in the future in addressing the complex challenges and opportunities in public healthcare cannot be overstated. Prioritizing these indispensable skills in health education is imperative for positively influencing thehealthcare system.

THE CONCEPTUAL NEXUS BETWEEN ISLAMIC FORESIGHT, ISLAMIC THOUGHT AND THE SHARIAH

The current global Muslim community is facing new challenges amidst the remnants of historical colonisation, sectarianism, and current geopolitical, economic and social realities. Despite these challenges, Muslim communities in general have been consistent in preserving the religious precepts derived from the primary sources of Al-Quran and Al-Sunnah, which form the foundation of the Islamic identity. Although widely underemphasised, futures thinking is deeply ingrained in the precepts of Islamic thought since the time of Prophet Muhammad (pbuh), which unbeknownst to many, has indubitably shaped the transformation not only in Muslim communities, but has also influenced global shifts in civilisation from multifarious aspects, for example, science and technology, arts, governance and social justice. This paper seeks to illustrate the significance of Islamic futures thinking as a foundation for progress in Muslim communities, by applying the qualitative methods of content analysis and engagements in focus group discussions. To this end, the study analyses data obtained from the exploration of Islamic texts, traditions and literatures on the Islamic perspectives of futures thinking. This paper advances the proposition that futures thinking has a profound basis in Islam due to the universal nature of the Islamic concepts of knowledge, the methods of addressing gradual and imminent change, its constant inspirations towards excellence and a justly balanced society, as well as Islamic ethics in foresight. Findings of this study highlight the importance of futures thinking as a capacity that must be developed in the Muslim world as part of the process towards long term social transformation.

The Case For Embedding Futures Thinking in University Teaching & Learning

The Case For Embedding Futures Thinking in University Teaching & Learning

Literary futures: Harnessing fiction for futures work

Literary Futures is an approach to futures work that draws on foundational works of world literature and literary analysis to engage creatively in futures thinking. This paper details the Literary Futures method, from its conceptual development to its practical application in a series of workshops. Through an analysis of the experiences of over 130 Literary Futures workshop participants, we highlight the ways in which narrative and works of fiction can offer a generative and participatory approach to futures thinking that emphasises and enables agency, while also embracing felt engagement. The paper illustrates how character development and collaborative worldbuilding make the Literary Futures method a valuable decision-making tool for contributing to futures work across a range of policy and planning contexts. These features furthermore allow the Literary Futures method to enhance the wider futures thinking field, promoting a focus on social futures, complex human interactions, and relational and affective encounters.

Developing Futures Thinking Literacy Among Middle School Gifted and Regular Students

ABSTRACT The current study examined the effects of an intervention developing Futures Thinking Literacy (FTL) among middle school gifted and regular students. Study participants (N = 877) were divided into gifted students studying in separate classes, gifted students studying in pullout centers, and regular students. The quantitative research applied a pre-post 6 by 2 design, when the research group experienced an intervention using the multidimensional curriculum model and the control group studied traditionally. A validated FTL questionnaire applied in the study was comprised of two open questions and 50 statements relating to the cognitive, and social-emotional aspect of FTL. Results indicate that both gifted and regular students from the research group improved their futures thinking and overall FTL. Students from gifted classes preferred more challenging activities, a better learning experience, and more knowledge acquisition. Implications regarding teacher preparation in the field of gifted education are discussed.

Futuring for Leaders.

Optimism is a powerful mindset for leaders and teams, but promoting optimism during extended periods of extreme change and instability is challenging. Futures Thinking is a unique and inherently optimistic set of tools and processes that leaders can use in such times. Looking 10 or more years into the future allows us to step beyond the turmoil of the current moment and apply energy to identifying and planning to create long-term systemic change toward a preferred future. [J Contin Educ Nurs. 2023;54(9):392-393.].

A Movement Matured: Results of a Co-citation Analysis, and Some Reflections on the Relations Between Social Structure and Ideas in Futures Studies

Scholars and practitioners have long criticized the inherent dominance of Western ideas in futures studies and claimed the need for a de-centering or decolonizing of the field. As a process of transforming science, de-centering occurs on at least two levels: at the level of thought and at the level of social structure. Sociologists of science, Science and Technology Studies (STS) scholars, and others have conducted research for many years on the interlinkages between social structures and knowledge structures and have developed several concepts to do so. In this article, I discuss some of these concepts and combine these theoretical conceptualizations with a co-citation analysis of recent publications in the futures studies. Based on a sample of futures studies publications that have appeared in the last ten years (n = 500) retrieved from the Web of ScienceTM database, a strongly inter-related network with four clusters can be identified. The works in each these four clusters are related in terms of their subject matter. They concern (1) the politico-intellectual program of futures studies, (2) their epistemological foundations, (3) questions of methodology, and (4) scenarios as the core technique of futures thinking. Both the works and their authors come from a broad variety of cultural backgrounds; they also display a relatively high number of co-citations with works in clusters other than their own. Taken together, these findings indicate that the information space sampled in this study to represent futures studies has already become de-centered to a large degree, both at the level of social structure and at the level of thought.

Recognizing the past to navigate the stewardship of public health futures.

People easily and quickly forget. At present, academia in the Global North is constantly discussing about decolonization with the supposed goal of having a more inclusive and diverse discursive space for people in the Global South. From the macro perspective, the power relations of discursive spaces globally, as predominated by Western academia, dictate debates for the time being. Upon the emergence of another concept, it would be possible that decolonization would become another buzzword. The increased use of social media is also affecting memory deficits on the individual level.1 For a systemic stewardship of planetary and public health futures2 to be accomplished, it is imperative to realize that forgetting the past may present critical lapses in managing our planet’s potential futures. It has been recognized that an interdisciplinary approach to planetary and public health research is significant to grasp the components and dynamics of changes in socioecological systems. For this to come into fruition, memory studies must be integrated in the discourses of futures thinking.

The value produced in lending strategic problems as live cases in futures education

Strategists often employ consultants to gain insights from futures thinking. An alternative source is the lending of challenges to executive education participants. Here we assess the value derived by organisations who lend strategic challenges as live cases to business schools for the purpose of teaching scenario planning. We draw on data from 22 live cases spanning almost a decade. Lending organisations reap benefits commensurate to those expected of scenario planning in a cost-effective manner and over a short time-span. However, given the value drawn is dependent on critical reflection on behalf of stakeholders, it is important to set clear expectations and carefully manage the pedagogical engagement. This paper contributes to the literatures on rigour and relevance of knowledge co-production for futures education and the future of education. It offers practical guidance on how to improve the effectiveness of lending live cases in executive education.

Development of Systems and Futures Thinking Skills by Primary Pre-service Teachers for Addressing Epidemics

Science educators highlight the importance of developing systems thinking (ST) and futures thinking (FT) for students to make decisions and to be active citizens that address socioscientific problems. The dimensions related to FT take in this study were three implied in ST and two in the appropriation of the future. The aim of this study is to analyse the level of FT-related dimensions developed by a group of pre-service elementary teachers and how far different activities designed to foster them were effective. Written explanations presented by the participants about the origin of pandemics and possible ways to prevent them, as well as videos developed by small groups with the goal to present a campaign for avoiding future pandemics, were analysed. Based on the literature, five dimensions and up to four levels of performances were identified. After completing the activities, participants were able to relate the three spheres of the “One Health” notion to explain the causes of pandemics. Moreover, they established complex cause-effect relationships between the different factors, although they only constructed monocausal relationships when proposing measures. Participants improved their performance in anticipating the future and identifying themselves as agents of change. The elaboration of concept maps facilitated the development of components and behaviour ST dimensions, and the design of the campaign allowed participants to identify themselves as agents of change. The use of these strategies in science education can contribute to the development of a citizenry capable of understanding and acting on systems.

Capacity-building needs assessment for Futures Thinking in State Universities and Colleges in Zamboanga Peninsula Region, Philippines

Capacity-building needs assessment for Futures Thinking in State Universities and Colleges in Zamboanga Peninsula Region, Philippines

PEMBANGUNAN INSTRUMEN UJIAN PEMIKIRAN MASA HADAPAN UNTUK PELAJAR SEKOLAH MENENGAH

This study was conducted to assess the validity and reliability of a Futures Thinking Test (FTT) Instrument using the Rasch Measurement Model. The FTT instrument was constructed to measure the futures thinking skills of secondary school students. The FTT consists of 11 items in the form of open-ended structured questions and was distributed to a total of 44 respondents who were 16-year-old Form Four students who took Science subject at one secondary school in the district of Kudat, Sabah. This instrument was developed to assess five constructs in futures thinking namely i) understanding the current situation; ii) identifying key trends; iii) analyzing relevant drivers; iv) synthesizing future possibilities and needs; and v) selection with justification the preferable futures. Findings of instrument validity through item polarity showed the PTMEA-Corr values of all 11 items were positive (> 0.00). Based on the analysis of item polarity and item suitability, all 11 items were retained as they met one of the requirements of MNSQ outfit, ZSTD Outfit and PTMEA- Corr with two items needed improvement. The value of Raw Variance Explained by Measure of this instrument was 54.1% (Good) and Unexplained Variance from the first to fifth contrast was less than 11% which falls within the ideal range value of less than 15%. This indicates that the FTT instrument has good unidimensionality and has strong construct validity. The Cronbach Alpha (KR-20) reliability value of the instrument was 0.65 (good and acceptable), item reliability index was 0.95 (excellent) and item isolation was 4.55 (good). The findings of the analysis concluded that all 11 items were accepted with two items needed revision and can be used to assess the five constructs of futures thinking among secondary school students.

Future proofing heritage: Futures Thinking approaches to aid recovery and renewal during the Covid-19 crisis

Purpose. This paper aims to illustrate how organisations, especially cultural heritage organisations, can respond to a crisis and plan for recovery when dealing with multiple future uncertainties by applying Futures Thinking techniques. It does this by describing the approach that Historic Environment Scotland (HES) has been taking to plan for recovery and renewal during the COVID-19 pandemic. Approach/methodology/design. The paper uses the case study methodology to explore how different Futures Thinking techniques have been used to build flexibility in HES’s work when facing an uncertain future. The paper will also examine how the methodology used in this process will aid the development of a Futures Thinking toolkit and a Virtual Intelligence Hub in support of all HES’s operations. Findings. This paper demonstrates how Futures Thinking techniques, such as scenario planning, can be effectively used to map critical uncertainties and identify business priorities across different possible scenarios for cultural organisations. It does so by illustrating the journey taken so far by HES to embed Futures Thinking techniques in the organisation, how it engaged with these and used them to begin the process of creating resilience and sustainability in its operations during this crisis. Originality/value. Because cultural organisations do not traditionally engage in Futures Thinking, this paper makes the case that such tools are a valuable approach to foreseeing and surviving crises.

Toward a Diagnostic Tool for Organizational Ethical Culture With Futures Thinking and Scenario Planning

The literature on futures studies scarcely mentions the use of scenario planning in organizational ethics. By gathering and analyzing diverse macro (contextual) and micro (transactional) points of view, here called “partial truths,” this article investigates how scenario planning could be used as a complementary tool to diagnose disruptions that may impact an organization's ethical culture. We conducted futures thinking interviews with 16 managers in a multinational European energy company and its South American subsidiary, and followed up the research with a scenario planning intervention with managers participating in an ethics forum in the Basque Country. Through case studies, the research qualitatively describes the processes by which top management would utilize scenario planning methods to address business ethics in organizational dynamics. The combined study led to a framework of pragmatic ethics and systems thinking that broadens our understanding of the main themes that lead to disruptions that managers believed would impact ethical culture. This analysis gives further insight into the potential use of scenarios to support corporations to engage in ethical deliberation and thereby enable ethical reinterpretation of company policies, strategies, and initiatives. We revealed fundamental biases toward the acceptance of scenario planning methods for business ethics in companies, dependent upon corporate values and goals, ethical concerns, cultural characteristics, and financial and time constraints. The reflections extracted from interviews and ethnographic research resulted in a template showing why some businesses would be open to scenario planning for corporate ethical culture, while others would be reluctant to engage in the activity.

Writing Fictional Short Stories About the Anthropocene: Effects on Students’ Futures Thinking

This article deals with the identification of some general guidelines for teaching aimed at developing futures thinking about themes of the Anthropocene. For that, we estimate such teaching activities at the intersection of socioscientific issues, environmental education, and futures education. We describe two teaching contexts designed on this principle, and centered on pupils’ writing fictional narratives, and analyze the effects on their futures thinking. The results show that it is important to design teaching activities that make it possible to think about the temporalities of processes and phenomena, and to invest in relational responsibilities. In order for the pedagogical activity to take temporalities into account, we propose that the backgrounds of the futures on which the stories take place be built using the scenario method. Writing short stories can also allow for a deeper understanding of relational responsibilities, based more on the framework of capabilities. One perspective is to integrate fictional short stories writing into the repertoire of possible activities to be conducted in an inquiry-based pedagogy about the Anthropocene.

Teacher Agency and Futures Thinking

Problems encountered in top-down school reforms have repeatedly highlighted the significance of teachers’ agency in educational change. At the same time, temporality has been identified as a key element in teachers’ agency, with teachers’ beliefs about the future and experiences of the past shaping their agentic orientations. However, research on teachers’ future orientations is typically limited to short-term trajectories, as opposed to long-term visions of education. To address this, we draw on a futures studies perspective to give more explicit attention to teachers’ long-term visions of their work. We argue that the method of future narratives, already well-established in the field of futures studies, is a fruitful methodological framework for studying these long-term visions. In this paper, we first show that the futures studies approach is theoretically compatible with the ecological model of teacher agency. We then outline the method of future narratives to point out the possibilities it offers. Finally, we illustrate our approach with an exploratory analysis of a small set of future narratives where teachers imagine a future workday. Our analysis reveals that the narratives offer a rich view of teachers’ longer-term visions of education, including instances of reflecting on the role of education in relation to broader societal developments. Our study suggests that this novel approach can provide tools for research on teacher agency as well as practical development of teacher education, addressing long-term educational issues and policies.

Emerging from Crisis: How Organizations Can Use Futures Thinking to Design for Emergence

The Covid‐19 pandemic has taught us a lot of life lessons—some welcome, others not—but amidst these lessons are that there are consequences to not thinking about the future.As organizations cope with the pandemic, the need to consider the future—how to plan for its uncertainty and the challenges that come with it—has grown in importance.