Future Climate Warming Research Articles

Increase of temperature exacerbates the conversion of P fractions in organic horizon

In terrestrial ecosystems, phosphorus (P) is the limiting nutrient of primary production. The soil organic horizon is a vital source of bioavailable P in subalpine coniferous forests. However, the response of organic horizon P to temperature increase in subalpine coniferous forests is not well characterized. By studying different decomposed degree of organic horizon across an altitudinal gradient, we aimed to simulate responses of the organic horizon P conversion to MAT increase in subalpine ecosystems. In this study, relative enrichment and relative depletion of P fractions were defined as the conversions between different P fractions. We initially observed only unidirectional conversion from labile inorganic P (LIP) to highly resistant organic P (HOP) at a mean annual temperature (MAT) of 1 °C. However, with increasing MAT, there was a relative depletion of moderately resistant inorganic P (MIP) (MAT = 2.4 °C), followed by a successive depletion of moderately resistant organic P (MOP) (MAT = 4.1 °C). Concurrently, we observed relative enrichment of labile organic P (LOP) (MAT = 2.4 °C). Combined with indoor incubation experiments, we further found that the concentration of available P peaked (81.79 mg kg−1) at the initial stage of MIP relative depletion (MAT = 2.4 °C), while the net P mineralization rate (2.19 mg kg−1 d−1) reached a maximum following the initial relative depletion of MOP (MAT = 4.1 °C). Under elevated temperature, the pH of the organic horizon plays a crucial role in determining P fractions variation. These findings suggest that temperature increase can exacerbate the conversion of P fractions and the release of bioavailable P from organic horizon by successively triggering the relative depletion of MIP, the relative enrichment of LOP and relative depletion of MOP at specific MAT thresholds, which has important implications for the enhancement of primary production and carbon sequestration in subtropical coniferous forests under future climate warming.

Meta-analytic and MaxEnt model prediction, the distribution of the Bactrocera minax (Diptera: Tephritidae), in China under changing climate.

The Tephritidae family causes damage to fruits in tropical and subtropical regions around the world, with Bactrocera minax Enderlein (Diptera: Tephritidae) widely distributed in China, causing severe economic damage to Chinese citrus. Currently, preventing the rapid spread of B. minax remains an effective strategy to control it as the climate continues to warm in the future. In this context, it is crucial to understand the potential geographic range of B. minax under climate change. We used meta-analysis to assess the survival of Tephritidae insects under temperature stress. We also used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the suitable regions and migration trajectories of B. minax in China under current and future climatic conditions. Through comprehensive analysis of the experimental data, we found that the survival rate of Tephritidae insects in the suitable temperature range showed an increasing trend with the increase in warming extent. Using the MaxEnt model, we observed that the highly suitable area, as well as the moderately suitable area of B. minax, were expanding in all 3 future climate scenarios, with the distribution moving toward the high latitude region and the coastal region of China. Our results also indicate that temperature and precipitation contribute more to the model in the current year. Combining multiexperiment data, our study demonstrates that the potential distribution of B. minax in China will expand under future climate warming scenarios, and these predictions will provide important information for monitoring B. minax and informing managers in developing control strategies.

Characteristics and dynamic mechanism of rill erosion driven by extreme rainfall on karst plateau slopes, SW China

Driven by climate change and increased human activities, the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events are increasing, leading to increased risk of water erosion on slopes in karst rocky desertification (KRD) areas. However, the driving factors (rainfall intensity, slope gradient, and the degree of underground fissure pore), characteristics, and dynamic mechanisms of rill erosion on KRD slopes under extreme rainfall have received limited attention. A rainfall simulation experiment was performed to investigate the driving factors of rill erosion on KRD slopes under extreme rainfall events. The experiments were conducted using an erosion flume (4 m long, 1.5 m wide and 0.35 m deep) with five rainfall intensities (50, 105, 115, 125 and 145 mm·h−1), three-level slope gradients (5°, 15° and 25°), and three typical degrees of underground pore fissure (1 %, 3 % and 5 %). The results showed that extreme rainfall significantly stimulated the formation and development of rill erosion on KRD slopes. In particular, rainfall intensity and slope gradient significantly affected rill erosion (p < 0.05), whereas the degree of underground pore fissure did not have any distinct effect. Increasing rainfall intensity intensified rill erosion by significantly (p < 0.05) promoting the rill density, total rill surface area, and longest of rill length. With increasing slope gradient, the rill density, rill distribution density, and average rill depth significantly increased (p < 0.05). Moreover, extreme rainfall events exacerbated surface soil erosion by enhancing the hydrodynamic characteristics of slope runoff. Rill erosion was most sensitive to the shear stress of runoff, and rill density was found to be the most suitable rill index for describing surface soil erosion on the slope under extreme rainfall. The findings provide valuable insights into the characteristics and mechanisms of soil erosion in karst regions under future climate warming.

Rapid positive response of young trees growth to warming reverses nitrogen loss from subtropical soil

Abstract Global warming is widely expected to alter nitrogen (N) cycling in terrestrial ecosystems by accelerating N transformations in soils. However, it is unclear how warming will affect plant–soil N cycling in subtropical ecosystems. Here, we measured the N transformations including net ammoniation, nitrification, nitrous oxide emissions and nitrate in soil solution throughout the plant–soil continuum with 2 years of experimental soil warming (+5°C) in a young subtropical Chinese fir mesocosm. Seasonal variations of soil and plant (foliage and root) N concentrations and isotopes (δ15N), foliar water use efficiency and arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization rate were measured. Soil warming significantly increased net ammonization and nitrification of the soil, together with the transient positive response observed in inorganic N of the soil. Warming increased nitrate N fluxes in soil solution and nitrous oxide emissions in the first year but not in the second year, suggesting N losses through leaching and gaseous in the initial period of warming. Warming primarily induced enrichment of 15N in foliage relative to the soil, which was attributed to the trade‐offs of persistent increases in plant N uptake caused by enhanced tree growth and a decrease in N losses with continuous warming. Furthermore, young trees' growth and N uptake capacity can rapidly acclimate to climate warming as a result of warming‐induced increases in arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization and foliar water use efficiency. Our findings highlight that warming accelerates the plant–soil N cycle and promotes young trees' growth and N uptake, which in turn reduces soil N lost from this subtropical ecosystem. Therefore, our study suggests that the competition for N between plants and microbes governs whether subtropical forests are opened or closed N cycle systems under climate warming. We predict that subtropical young forests can still maintain their high productivity because young trees can maintain their N uptake capacity and adequate soil N supply in facing future climate warming. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Warmer future climate in Canada—implications for winter survival of perennial forage crops

Significant increase in wintertime air temperature, especially the reduced cold extremes under climate change, might be beneficial to the winter survival of perennial crops. However, climate warming could result in less snowfall, reduced snow cover, as well as changes in climate conditions for fall hardening and winter thaws. How these changes might impact the risks of winter damages to overwintering crops, such as perennial forage crops requires a comprehensive assessment for proactively adapting to climate change in the agricultural sector, especially the beef and dairy industries. Based on the most up-to-date climate projections from a set of global climate models, we used a snow model and a suite of agroclimatic indices for perennial forage crops to assess potential changes in the risks of winter injury to perennial forage crops across Canada in the near-term (2030s), the mid-term (2050s), and the distant future (2070s). Our results show that the risk of exposure to extremely low temperatures (daily Tmin ≤ −15 °C) without snow protection is projected to decrease across Canada with improved conditions for fall hardening. However, winter thaws and rainfall are projected to increase, and this would increase the risk of winter injury due to loss of hardiness together with potential soil heaving and ice encasement.

Accelerated degradation of photovoltaic modules under a future warmer climate

AbstractSolar photovoltaic (PV) module deployment has surged globally as a part of the transition towards a decarbonized electricity sector. However, future climate change presents issues for module degradation due to prolonged exposure to outdoor conditions. Here, we identify key degradation mechanisms of monocrystalline‐silicon (mono‐Si) modules and empirically model their degradation modes under various climate scenarios. Modules tend to degrade faster due to the thermal degradation mechanism. We estimate that the weighted average degradation rate will increase up to 0.1%/year by 2059. On assessing the impacts of module degradation on future PV power generation and levelized cost of energy, we project up to 8.5% increase in power loss that leads to ~10% rise in future energy price. These results highlight the need to climate‐proof PV module design through careful material selection and improvements in the module manufacturing process. In particular, we recommend the use of heat dissipation techniques in modules to prevent degradation due to overheating.

Insight into planktonic protistan and fungal communities across the nutrient-depleted environment of the South Pacific Subtropical Gyre.

Ocean microorganisms constitute ~70% of the marine biomass, contribute to ~50% of the Earth's primary production, and play a vital role in global biogeochemical cycles. The marine heterotrophic and mixotrophic protistan and fungal communities have often been overlooked mainly due to limitations in morphological species identification. Despite the accumulation of studies on biogeographic patterns observed in microbial communities, our understanding of the abundance and distribution patterns within the microbial community of the largest subtropical gyre, the South Pacific Gyre (SPG), remains incomplete. Here, we investigated the diversity and vertical composition of protistan and fungal communities in the water column of the ultra-oligotrophic SPG. Our results showed apparent differences in protistan community diversity in the photic and aphotic regions. The entire protistan community diversity was significantly affected by temperature, salinity, oxygen, and nutrient concentrations, while the parasitic community diversity was also affected by chlorophyll a concentration. The parasitic protists were assigned to the class Syndiniales accounting for over 98% of the total parasitic protists, exhibiting higher relative sequence abundance along the water depth and displaying consistent patterns among different sampling stations. In contrast to the protistan community, the fungal community along the SPG primarily clustered based on the sampling station and pelagic zones. In particular, our study reveals a significant presence of parasitic protists and functionally diverse fungi in SPG and their potential impact on carbon cycling in the gyre.IMPORTANCEOur findings carry important implications for understanding the distribution patterns of the previously unrecognized occurrence of parasitic protists and functionally diverse fungi in the nutrient-limited South Pacific Gyre. In particular, our study reveals a significant presence of parasitic Syndiniales, predominantly abundant in the upper 300 m of the aphotic zone in the gyre, and a distinct presence of fungal communities in the aphotic zone at the central part of the gyre. These findings strongly suggest that these communities play a substantial role in yet insufficiently described microbial food web. Moreover, our research enhances our understanding of their contribution to the dynamics of the food webs in oligotrophic gyres and is valuable for projecting the ecological consequences of future climate warming.

Contribution of Anthropogenic Activities to the Intensification of Heat Index‐Based Spatiotemporally Contiguous Heatwave Events in China

AbstractIn this study, we identified heat index‐based spatiotemporally contiguous heatwaves (HI‐STHWs) in China based on meteorological observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate model simulations. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in HI‐STHWs in the past and future and quantitatively attributed these changes to anthropogenic activities. The results show that the duration, severity, average, maximum, and total impacted area of the annual strongest HI‐STHWs during the present period of 1991–2014 are 1.77, 2.0, 1.05, 1.14, and 1.89 times the historical period of 1961–1990, respectively. In the fingerprint results, the anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) signal is significantly detected, while the aerosol (AER) and natural (NAT) signals are not. GHG is the primary factor driving the intensification of HI‐STHWs, which alone explains about 130%, 122%, 112%, 111%, and 114% of the above changes. The reason for GHG contribution exceeding 100% is that AER might have a negative contribution although nonsignificant. In the future warming climate, anthropogenic activities are projected to lead to more unprecedented HI‐STHWs. Under the high emissions scenario of SSP585, by 2100, the annual strongest HI‐STHW in China is projected to last almost the whole year and influence 96% regions of China in the most serious day. Meanwhile, its duration and total impacted area are 24.5 [17.2, 31.6] (90% confidence interval) and 107.2 [70, 129.9] times the preindustrial period. However, if the warming level could be limited to 2/1.5°C, those values would be 3.4/5.4 and 8.2/16.2 times smaller than that under the SSP585 scenario by 2100.

Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts

Abstract. Extreme sub-hourly precipitation, typically convective in nature, is capable of triggering natural disasters such as floods and debris flows. A key component of climate change adaptation and resilience is quantifying the likelihood that sub-hourly extreme precipitation will exceed historical levels in future climate scenarios. Despite this, current approaches to estimating future sub-hourly extreme precipitation return levels are deemed insufficient. The reason for this can be attributed to two factors: there is limited availability of data from convection-permitting climate models (capable of simulating sub-hourly precipitation adequately) and the statistical methods we use to extrapolate extreme precipitation return levels do not capture the physics governing global warming. We present a novel physical-based statistical method for estimating the extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels. The proposed model, named TEmperature-dependent Non-Asymptotic statistical model for eXtreme return levels (TENAX), is based on a parsimonious non-stationary and non-asymptotic theoretical framework that incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. We first explain the theory and present the TENAX model. Using data from several stations in Switzerland as a case study, we demonstrate the model's ability to reproduce sub-hourly precipitation return levels and some observed properties of extreme precipitation. We then illustrate how the model can be utilized to project changes in extreme sub-hourly precipitation in a future warmer climate only based on climate model projections of temperatures during wet days and on foreseen changes in precipitation frequency. We conclude by discussing the uncertainties associated with the model, its limitations, and its advantages. With the TENAX model, one can project sub-hourly precipitation extremes at different return levels based on daily scale projections from climate models in any location globally where observations of sub-hourly precipitation data and near-surface air temperature are available.

The potential of growing soybean in Saskatchewan and its irrigation water needs under climate change scenarios—a modelling study

The soybean industry in Canada is seeking opportunities to expand cultivation due to economic and environmental benefits of growing soybean. Climate projections indicate that soybean expansion into Saskatchewan would be possible with the increases in the available crop heat units under a future warmer climate; however, crop water availability could limit yields. Using a crop growth model, we simulated soybean yields within the Canadian Regional Agricultural Model regions in Saskatchewan for the near-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s), and distant future (2070s) periods under different climate scenarios. Soybean yields were simulated without water stress (potential yield), with water stress (rainfed yield), and under full and partial irrigation scenarios. Irrigation water needs were estimated under the irrigation scenarios and irrigation water availability was discussed. Our results suggest that reasonable and likely more profitable yields (∼2000–2500 kg ha−1) can be achieved under rainfed conditions in the Black soil zone neighbouring Manitoba but soybean production would be less favourable in the Dark Brown soil zone and least favourable in the Brown soil zone. Northeastern regions in the Black soil zone were found to be suitable for growing soybean cultivars in the maturity group (MG) 0 in the distant future and MG 00 in the mid-term under the medium–high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Soybean would still not be suitable in the northwestern region. Our results indicate that regions in central Saskatchewan requiring 120–170 mm of irrigation are more likely to benefit from the proposed Lake Diefenbaker Irrigation Projects in the future.

Future water storage changes over the Mediterranean, Middle East, and North Africa in response to global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention

Abstract. Water storage plays a profound role in the lives of people across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as it is the most water-stressed region worldwide. The lands around the Caspian and Mediterranean seas are simulated to be very sensitive to future climate warming. Available water capacity depends on hydroclimate variables such as temperature and precipitation that will depend on socioeconomic pathways and changes in climate. This work explores changes in both the mean and extreme terrestrial water storage (TWS) under an unmitigated greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario (SSP5-8.5) and stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) designed to offset GHG-induced warming above 1.5 ∘C and compares both with historical period simulations. Both mean TWS and extreme TWS are projected to significantly decrease under SSP5-8.5 over the domain, except for the Arabian Peninsula, particularly in the wetter lands around the Caspian and Mediterranean seas. Relative to global warming, SAI partially ameliorates the decreased mean TWS in the wet regions, while it has no significant effect on the increased TWS in drier lands. In the entire domain studied, the mean TWS is larger under SAI than pure GHG forcing, mainly due to the significant cooling and, in turn, a substantial decrease in evapotranspiration under SAI relative to SSP5-8.5. Changes in extreme water storage excursions under global warming are reduced by SAI. Extreme TWS under both future climate scenarios is larger than throughout the historical period across Iran, Iraq, and the Arabian Peninsula, but the response of the more continental eastern North Africa hyper-arid climate is different from the neighboring dry lands. In the latter case, we note a reduction in the mean TWS trend under both GHG and SAI scenarios, with extreme TWS values also showing a decline compared to historical conditions.

Variation in temperature of peak trait performance constrains adaptation of arthropod populations to climatic warming

The capacity of arthropod populations to adapt to long-term climatic warming is currently uncertain. Here we combine theory and extensive data to show that the rate of their thermal adaptation to climatic warming will be constrained in two fundamental ways. First, the rate of thermal adaptation of an arthropod population is predicted to be limited by changes in the temperatures at which the performance of four key life-history traits can peak, in a specific order of declining importance: juvenile development, adult fecundity, juvenile mortality and adult mortality. Second, directional thermal adaptation is constrained due to differences in the temperature of the peak performance of these four traits, with these differences expected to persist because of energetic allocation and life-history trade-offs. We compile a new global dataset of 61 diverse arthropod species which provides strong empirical evidence to support these predictions, demonstrating that contemporary populations have indeed evolved under these constraints. Our results provide a basis for using relatively feasible trait measurements to predict the adaptive capacity of diverse arthropod populations to geographic temperature gradients, as well as ongoing and future climatic warming.

Gold in the mountains: Striking new species of Papuascincus (Sphenomorphini: Scincidae) from New Guinea

Abstract Skinks are the most diverse component of the reptile fauna in the mountains of New Guinea and many seemingly specialised high-elevation species remain undescribed. Here we describe two spectacular new gold-patterned skinks in the montane-specialist genus Papuascincus. Both species can be diagnosed from all congeners by their distinctive colouration, in addition to aspects of scalation and body size. One new species is mainly recorded from lower montane forest in karst habitats spanning more than five hundred kilometres along the southern edge of New Guinea’s Central Cordillera and is likely to warrant an IUCN conservation status of Least Concern. The second new species has thus far only been recorded from cloud forest on the summit of Mt. Menawa in the North Coastal Ranges and we suggest it should be considered Data Deficient. However, if further survey work confirms a restricted distribution with little scope for upslope elevational retreat under future warming climates it will likely qualify for Endangered or Critically Endangered status.

Optimized nitrogen fertilizer application strategy improves grain yield and quality of high-quality late indica rice under field ambient warming

Post-heading high temperatures occurred frequently in late indica rice regions in southern China recently, but the effects of high post-heading temperature on rice yield and quality under nitrogen application including nitrogen management (NM) and panicle fertilizer (NPF) were still unclear. Therefore, the grain yield and quality of late indica rice cultivars were compared in 2020 (ambient temperature) to 2019 (warming 2.3 °C) and 2021 (warming 3.5 °C). The results showed that moderate NPF can increase the yield, protein content (PC) and brown rice rate, and reduce the chalkiness and amylose content (AC) under naturally high temperatures. The proportion and application of NPF values higher than 22.5%, 36 kg·ha−1 effectively improved grain yield, processing and appearance qualities, and PC, while reducing AC of late indica rice under natural warming. The temperature parameters, AC and PC during the total growth period could explain 81.7%, 90.7% and 89.6% of the variation in rice processing qualities, appearance qualities and gel consistency, respectively. The finding demonstrated that the optimum Tmean of improving rice yield and quality was 29.0 °C before heading and 21.1 °C after heading under NM, and 28.6 °C before heading, and 22.9 °C after heading under NPF. This study suggested that optimizing nitrogen management strategies under future climate warming conditions can synergistically increase indica rice yield and quality.

Thermal tolerances of littorinid snails from temperate and subtropical South Africa

Environmental temperature affects ectotherm performance and fitness because physiological performance increases up to a sublethal optimum temperature; this is not fixed, but depends on the species and individual history. We explored the influence of species identity, size and thermal history on thermal tolerance in four species of littorinid snails in South Africa. As expected, heat coma temperature (HCT) was lower than the lethal temperatures (LT50), and was greater for juveniles, while LT50 was greater for adults. The ranking by both metrics was Echinolittorina natalensis > Littoraria glabrata > Afrolittorina africana > A. knysnaensis, reflecting their biogeographical distributions. No species showed an effect of laboratory acclimation for 14 days at temperatures from 20 to 35 °C, though HCT was lower for field fresh individuals than for all other treatments. Nor was there acclimatisation of LT50 between seasons. Bioregion is a proxy for lifetime acclimatisation yet the Afrolittorina species showed nonsignificant differences between conspecifics from different regions. The effect of size differed between the two metrics, and field fresh individuals showed lower HCT values than laboratory-treated individuals—which taken together indicates the need for care when interpreting the results of lab work. The thermal tolerances of these species reflect their biogeography and appear fixed with little or no plasticity, rendering these littorinids vulnerable to future climate warming.

Quantifying overheating risk in English schools: A spatially coherent climate risk assessment

Climate adaptation decision making can be informed by a quantification of current and future climate risk. This is important for understanding which populations and/or infrastructures are most at risk in order to prioritise adaptation action. When assessing the risk of overheating in buildings, many studies use advanced building models to comprehensively represent the vulnerability of the building to overheating, but often use a limited representation of the meteorological (hazard) information which does not vary realistically in space. An alternative approach for quantifying risk is to use a spatial risk assessment framework which combines information about hazard, exposure and vulnerability to estimate risk in a spatially consistent way, allowing for risk to be compared across different locations. Here we present a novel application of an open-source CLIMADA-based spatial risk assessment framework to an ensemble of climate projections to assess overheating risk in ∼20,000 schools in England. In doing so, we demonstrate an approach for bringing together the advantages of open-source spatial risk assessment frameworks, data science techniques, and physics-based building models to assess climate risk in a spatially consistent way, allowing for the prioritisation of adaptation action in this vulnerable young population. Specifically, we assess the expected number of days each school overheats (internal operative temperature exceeds a high threshold) in a school-year based on three global warming levels (recent past, 2 °C and 4 °C warmer than pre-industrial). Our results indicate an increase in this risk in future warmer climates, with the relative frequency of overheating at internal temperatures in excess of 35 °C increasing more than at 26 °C. Indeed, this novel demonstration of the approach indicates that the most at-risk schools could experience up to 15 school days of internal temperature in excess of 35 °C in an average year if the climate warms to 2 °C above pre-industrial. Finally, we demonstrate how the spatial consistency in the output risk could enable the prioritisation of high risk schools for adaptation action.

The temperature optima for pollen germination and pollen tube growth of coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) strongly depend on the growth temperature

Abstract Understanding trait variation in response to temperature is important to predict how crops respond to rising temperature. Although we have a sound understanding of the effects of increasing temperature on growth and development of crops, a robust assessment of how crop reproductive processes are affected by climate warming is still lacking. In this study, we experimentally investigate how the growth temperature affects the cardinal temperatures of in vitro pollen germination of widely distributed tree crop species Cocos nucifera L. (cultivar Sri Lankan Tall). We hypothesize that temperature optima for pollen germination and pollen tube growth would be determined by the growth temperature. Our results showed that the temperature optima of pollen germination and pollen tube growth were higher at relatively warmer sites (sites where the mean annual temperature ∼ 28°C) compared to the cooler sites (sites where the mean annual temperature ∼ 22°C). The two processes were better coordinated at warmer sites. We speculate that tropical tree species that are currently growing in relatively cooler environments may have the capacity to perform their reproductive physiological functions in future warmer climates without any substantial negative impacts. Findings of this study should prove useful in quantifying the potential impacts of climate warming on tropical agro-ecosystems, improving the representation of plant reproduction in crop models.

Buffering Effect of Atmosphere–Ocean Coupling on Intensity Changes of Tropical Cyclones Under a Changing Climate

AbstractThe effect of atmosphere–ocean coupling on intensity changes of tropical cyclones (TCs) under global warming was examined using a regional high‐resolution three‐dimensional atmosphere–ocean coupled model. A storyline event attribution approach was applied to four historical intense TCs in the western North Pacific. The results indicate that atmosphere–ocean coupling buffers TC intensification as global warming progresses. This buffering effect increased as storms traveled northward. Moreover, the effect intensified as warming progressed, because reductions in sea surface temperature induced by the storm increased as the storm strengthened in future warmer climates. The magnitude of the buffering effect depended on the storm's size and translation speed; a large, slow‐moving storm had significant resilience against global warming, whereas a compact, fast‐moving storm was sensitive to global warming. A high‐resolution atmosphere–ocean coupled model is important for more reliable future projections of TC intensity under the changing climate.

Expected Climate Change in the High Arctic—Good or Bad for Arctic Charr?

Lakes in the High Arctic are characterized by their low water temperature, long-term ice cover, low levels of nutrients, and low biodiversity. These conditions mean that minor climatic changes may be of great importance to Arctic freshwater organisms, including fish, by influencing vital life history parameters such as individual growth rates. In this study, Arctic charr sampled from two Svalbard lakes (78–79° N) over the period 1960–2008 provided back-calculated length-at-age information extending over six decades, covering both warm and cold spells. The estimated annual growth in young-of-the-year (YOY) Arctic charr correlated positively with an increasing air temperature in summer. This increase is likely due to the higher water temperature during the ice-free period, and also to some extent, due to the winter air temperature; this is probably due to thinner ice being formed in mild winters and the subsequent earlier ice break-up. However, years with higher snow accumulation correlated with slower growth rates, which may be due to delayed ice break-up and thus a shorter summer growing season. More than 30% of the growth in YOY charr could be explained specifically by air temperature and snow accumulation in the two Arctic charr populations. This indicated that juvenile Svalbard Arctic charr may experience increased growth rates in a future warmer climate, although future increases in precipitation may contradict the positive effects of higher temperatures to some extent. In the longer term, a warmer climate may lead to the complete loss of many glaciers in western Svalbard; therefore, rivers may dry out, thus hindering migration between salt water and fresh water for migratory fish. In the worst-case scenario, the highly valuable and attractive anadromous Arctic charr populations could eventually disappear from the Svalbard lake systems.

Poleward intensification of midlatitude extreme winds under warmer climate

Our study investigates the global impact of midlatitude cyclones on extreme wind speed events in both hemispheres under a warmer climate. Using the latest version of the high-resolution ≈ 50 km grid-spacing atmospheric climate model AM4, developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, we conducted simulations covering the 71-years period 1949–2019 for both the present-day climate and an idealised future global warming climate scenario with a homogeneous Sea Surface Temperature (SST) increase by 2 K. Our findings reveal that extreme near-surface wind speeds increase by up to 3% K−1 towards the poles while decrease by a similar amount in the lower midlatitudes. When considering only extreme wind speed events objectively attributed to midlatitude cyclones, we observe a migration by the same amount towards higher latitudes both in percentage per degree SST warming and absolute value. The total number of midlatitude cyclones decreases by roughly 4%, but the proportion of cyclone-associated extreme wind speed events increases by 10% in a warmer climate. Finally, Northwestern Europe, the British Isles, and the West Coast of North America are identified as hot spots with the greatest socio-economic impacts from increased cyclone-associated extreme winds.