Future US Research Articles

US shale gas production outlook based on well roll-out rate scenarios

This study models the uncertainty range in the future gas production output from US shale plays up to 2025. The future spread in gas output in our models follows from variations in the number of wells that will be drilled according to three distinct scenarios. Each scenario assumes a well development plan for the six major shale plays over the studied period and then quantifies the cumulative US production output from the combined shale plays. We compare the bottom-up model results with other model projections for future US shale gas output, including the top-down shale gas production forecasts by the US National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The remarkable growth of North American gas output from unconventional resources has been highlighted in numerous industry reports and government publications, but what has remained relatively underexposed is the deterioration of economic margins due to the failure to predict the gas price decline in the North American market. The past development record of North America’s shale gas resources suggests that security of future gas supplies seems ensured, but here we develop a contrarian view. Our scenario models take into account the effect of recent declines in gas rig counts and decline in gas well completions due to the depressed gas prices. A scenario with declining shale gas output – one of three scenarios considered – cannot be excluded as being unlikely to occur, which means the future security of US gas supply that assumes a steady growth of shale gas supply cannot be ascertained at present.

Enhancing efficiency and renewables with smart grid technologies and policies

Improving the energy efficiency of the built environment and expanding the use of distributed energy to power energy services are two low-carbon approaches that have received considerable attention over recent years. Both of these electricity resource options could be fostered by supportive smart grid technologies and policies, enabling a two-way flow of information and electricity between utilities and consumers and tapping into the full potential of energy efficiency and distributed renewables. This paper explores ways to use smart grid technologies and policies to help energy efficiency and distributed renewables meet future US energy needs. As documented in this review paper, recent progress and policy commitments suggest that the US grid can become an integral part of future clean energy solutions.

From shale gas to renewable energy based transportation solutions

We present an energy roadmap for the US light duty vehicle (LDV) sector that efficiently utilizes natural gas (NG) and transitions to renewable energy and carbon sources as they become economical. We use well-to-wheels (WTW) efficiency to compare alternative NG transportation pathways. If internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) remain prevalent, then compressed natural gas (CNG) is the favored fuel. Among electric powertrains, centralized electricity generation with battery electric vehicle (BEV) is more efficient than on-board generation with fuel-cell vehicles (FCV). Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) balance driving range against WTW efficiency, and provide flexibility in sourcing electricity from different energy sources. Despite these efficient WTW pathways, supplying NG for the LDV sector is estimated to decrease the lifetime of current US NG reserves to about 60 years. Beyond this period, compressed methane derived from biomass can replace CNG, and utilize the would-be developed CNG infrastructure. The LDV biomass requirement depends on the biomass to methane carbon conversion and battery storage capacity of CNG PHEVs. Converting biomass to methane using solar heat/H2 leads to ~65% lower LDV biomass requirement compared to standalone processes recovering ~30% biomass carbon as methane. The resulting biomass amounts compare favorably with future US biomass supply projections.

The Government Debt Iceberg

The Government Debt Iceberg

Arctic Alaska's role in future United States energy independence

For decades, Arctic Alaska has provided US mainland states with plentiful oil supplies. As reserves in the Prudhoe Bay fields decrease, however, the USA has been forced to consider new options to guarantee the nation's energy security. While debates continue to rage about its reliance on foreign oil, increased prices, consumption levels, and climate change, the USA is now contemplating whether predicted new discoveries might actually allow it to become an exporter rather than importer of oil and gas in the near future. This paper considers the role Arctic Alaska might play in helping secure future US energy security and independence. It also considers what other options exist for securing the State of Alaska's own future post-Prudhoe Bay.

Adapting to Empire: William H. Taft, Theodore Roosevelt, and the Philippines, 1900–08

Following the Spanish-American War of 1898, the USA became a true, European-style imperial power, with overseas colonies populated by diverse peoples with few — if any — connections to American culture and history. The wide-ranging imperial debate that followed 1898 brought two future US presidents firmly to the fore: the New York politician and war hero, Theodore Roosevelt, and the Ohio judge, William H. Taft. This article explores the complex development of these two politicians’ views on the Philippines during this period of imperial rule. Roosevelt began the period as an ardent imperialist and changed his views to reflect a change in US public opinion and strategic concerns. Conversely, Taft began by being a sceptic about US imperialism but ultimately became one of the most ardent retentionists. This article not only charts their paths to convergence and then their subsequent divergence in attitude towards Philippines policy, but also brings to light the much underestimated role that Taft played in keeping Roosevelt from moving the Republican Party away from its policy of retaining control of the islands. Although many historians see Taft as a loyal servant of Roosevelt’s vision for the USA prior to 1909, this article argues that, when it came to the Philippines, Taft was actually the key driver of US policy throughout this period.

Future of counseling psychology research

The author offers a critique on current counseling psychology research from her perspective as a US counseling psychology researcher and editor. She notes that unless something happens to change the trajectory, future US counseling psychology research will be open to the same criticisms. She summarizes counseling psychology values and argues that counseling psychology research reflects those values. She then identifies five ways that counseling psychology could be different in the future by: building theory-based research, embracing diversity of populations, research questions and methodologies, informing (and being informed) by other psychological disciplines, and informing policy and practice.

Advancing US public acceptance of spent fuel storage and transport: proposed outreach services for ionising radiation education support

Expansion of commercial nuclear energy could be one of the future US sources for clean, safe, reliable and economic electricity. However, no federal policy has effectively achieved wide acceptance of nuclear energy, with such policies having fallen victim to the politics of public radiation fears from nuclear energy usage and from spent fuel storage and transport. Many experts have described the foundation of public fear as not so much nuclear technology, but the ionising radiation to which people fear they might be exposed, and this issue has been talked and written about, yet gone substantially unaddressed with respect to public education for more than three decades. In the USA, the Blue Ribbon Commission Final Report is just the latest of clear statements where such an educational need is firmly asserted. The lamentable fact is that no one has made that substantive and concerted effort to do anything about it. Indeed, the only effort seems to have been talk about ‘better communication’, with a focus on...

Commentaries on health services research

Commentaries on health services research

Meteorologically defined limits to reduction in the variability of outputs from a coupled wind farm system in the Central US

Studies suggest that onshore wind resources in the contiguous US could readily accommodate present and anticipated future US demand for electricity. The problem with the output from a single wind farm located in any particular region is that it is variable on time scales ranging from minutes to days posing difficulties for incorporating relevant outputs into an integrated power system. The high frequency (shorter than once per day) variability of contributions from individual wind farms is determined mainly by locally generated small scale boundary layer. The low frequency variability (longer than once per day) is associated with the passage of transient waves in the atmosphere with a characteristic time scale of several days. Using 5 years of assimilated wind data, we show that the high frequency variability of wind-generated power can be significantly reduced by coupling outputs from 5 to 10 wind farms distributed uniformly over a ten state region of the Central US in this study. More than 95% of the remaining variability of the coupled system is concentrated at time scales longer than a day, allowing operators to take advantage of multi-day weather forecasts in scheduling projected contributions from wind.

New electricity grids must develop in sync

Future US and European electricity systems will depend on the harmonious evolution of low- and medium-voltage 'smart' grids with high-voltage 'super' grids (see M. Amin Nature 499, 145-147; 2013). Without care, these two developments could undermine, rather than reinforce, one another. Both smart and super grids involve three layers (see go.nature.com/7flk7s): physical (power flows), cyber (information technology) and socio-economic (stakeholders). There are important issues in the physical layer, but the greatest tensions will emerge in the socio-economic layer as self-interested stakeholders advance local or continental interests. Smart grids relate to local consumers becoming electricity producers themselves. This could diminish the need for high-voltage transmission grids as local power starts to serve nearby users. Super grids will help to integrate massive renewable sources and to ensure reliability. Their development will be led by transmission companies at a time when those businesses must adapt to emerging smart grids. If smart and super approaches are not aligned, the result will be a frailer electricity system. It is not just technologies that need to match up: policy regulations and market structures must do so too. Smartness should not just be an issue for better local grids, but for the electricity system as a whole

The challenges confronting US extended nuclear assurance in Asia

This article aims to explore the credibility of future US extended nuclear assurance in Asia. Extended nuclear assurance, all too frequently confused with extended nuclear deterrence, faces a daunting series of challenges: a US strategic mainstream fractured on the roles and purposes of nuclear weapons; an Asia where assurance demands are high during a period of strategic uncertainty; and a US theatre- and tactical-range nuclear arsenal much depleted from its heyday. Meanwhile, nuclear latency is growing in Asia as more countries reach the technological level that the US attained in 1945, as nuclear skill sets become more prevalent, and as delivery vehicles appropriate to nuclear weapons become more typical in regional arsenals. The US now provides extended nuclear assurance to nearly 40 countries worldwide, agreeing to run nuclear risks on behalf of its allies and friends. The bulk of those assurances derive from the NATO alliance, but it is the non-NATO-related assurances-and settings-that seem likely to be the more controversial ones over the next decade or two. Asia is coming into its own at a time when extended nuclear assurance needs reinvigoration as a key ingredient in US strategic policy.

Review Essay: After the Arab Spring

In a speech delivered on 19 May 2011, President Obama identified the following US core in the Middle East: (1) countering terrorism, (2) stopping the spread of nuclear weapons, (3) securing the free flow of commerce and safeguarding the security of the region, and, (4) standing up for Israel's security and pursuing Arab-Israeli peace. (1) The US military and intelligence presence in this region are designed to support these objectives and to reassure US allies while deterring potential adversaries such as Iran. Currently, it is not clear if the changes brought about by the Arab Spring uprisings will require the US military to find new ways to protect these interests or what adjustments to US basing and other military activity may be required. The ongoing civil war in Syria and the still unfolding political results in Arab nations that have successfully overthrown the despots that once ruled them add to the uncertainty. Understanding the development and evolution of the Arab Spring is, therefore, an important prerequisite for addressing some key aspects involving future US national security requirements. Fortunately, there are a number of excellent works on the subject that can be useful for US Army professionals and others seeking to do so. In examining these books, this essay seeks to help address an ongoing concern of US Army Chief of Staff General Raymond Odierno, who in March 2012 stated, We have learned many lessons over the last 10 years, but one of the most compelling is that--whether you are working among citizens of a country, or working with their governments or Armed Forces--nothing is as important to your long term success as understanding the prevailing culture and values. (2) Tremendous insight into these cultural issues and values can be gained by examining the history, and especially the recent history, of the countries we view as partners and also those we view as potential adversaries. At this time, it is particularly important to consider the goals and aspirations of the Arab publics that participated in the Arab Spring and to find ways in which the US national interest can be advanced while respecting the concerns and values of Arab populations. To be engaged partners, US Army personnel must be informed partners, and the Arab uprisings are perhaps the most important set of events to occur in this region since at least the June 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Moreover, a strong understanding of the regional trends will help US Army leaders provide valuable and relevant advice to the civilian leadership on when and how the use of landpower options is a reasonable idea and when it may be especially problematic. [ILLUSTRATION OMITTED] How the Arab Uprisings Developed, Succeeded, and Sometimes Failed One of the most important studies addressing recent events in the Middle East is The Arab Uprising by Marc Lynch. This work presents an interesting and insightful overview of the Arab uprisings which began in Tunisia in December 2010 and spread to a number of other Arab states. Lynch examines the origins and development of these uprisings with special attention given to how the actions in various countries influenced other Arab states. Lynch views the Arab uprisings beginning with Tunisia as part of a process evolving regionwide and defines the Arab Spring as the span of time in which that process began and moved forward. While Lynch speaks of a unified narrative among protestors, he does not overgeneralize and is careful to highlight the differences among the numerous countries involved with the Arab uprisings. As an expert in Arab media, Lynch also examines the ways citizens were able to access information and coordinate protest activities. In doing this, he avoids the trap of viewing these struggles as the result of social media, which he instead treats as an enabling technology. In examining the role of technology, he remains alert to the possibility that activists using social media may not be good representatives of the mainstream of their societies. …

Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce.

This study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025. A microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform. The estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. In the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future.

User testing in developing patient medication information in Europe

In Europe, patient leaflets are supplied as an insert inside all medicine packs. Manufacturers must produce such leaflets according to a template and undertake consultation with target patient groups to ensure it is legible, clear and easy to use, before a licence will be granted. The consultation is usually completed through 'user testing', involving individual interviews with lay participants, with both quantitative and qualitative components. After testing, good practice is applied to address shortcomings identified, and testing repeated. The process is described using the example of a patient booklet for lithium therapy. Such testing could benefit any future US process for patient medication information.

Avoiding Bloodshed? US Journalists and Censorship in Wartime

This article examines censorship of US journalists in World Wars I and II and the Korean War, Vietnam War, and Persian Gulf War, and from war to war, trends in types of censored information. This article also answers whether any censorship has avoided bloodshed or been legitimate, and concludes by examining how, in any future US wars, the government or military could most legitimately ensure safe reporting.

Outcome science in practice: an overview and initial experience at the Vanderbilt Spine Center

In terms of policy, research, quality improvement, and practice-based learning, there are essential principles--namely, quality, effectiveness, and value of care--needed to navigate changes in the current and future US health care environment. Patient-centered outcome measurement lies at the core of all 3 principles. Multiple measures of disease-specific disability, generic health-related quality of life, and preference-based health state have been introduced to quantify disease impact and define effectiveness of care. This paper reviews the basic principles of patient outcome measurement and commonly used outcome instruments. The authors provide examples of how utilization of outcome measurement tools in everyday neurosurgical practice can facilitate practice-based learning, quality improvement, and real-world comparative effectiveness research, as well as promote the value of neurosurgical care.

2012 PESA production and development review

2012 was a pivotal year for Australian petroleum development and production, during a dynamic time in our region, and globally. Australian activity headlines are LNG, the continuing pace and scale of the development of major projects, and record national petroleum production. LNG development in Australia is proceeding apace, with seven sanctioned projects under construction in WA and Queensland. The scale of the major projects underway is being felt with competition for skills, materials and services driving cost inflationary pressures and, coupled with other factors—such as an historically high Australian dollar—has resulted in several announced budget increases and schedule slippages. In addition, the regulatory framework is evolving, as regulators adapt to new industry trends and technologies. Proponents of future developments and expansions will be seeking to sanction in a tougher, but potentially better-informed development environment. Overall, national hydrocarbon production increased to a record high in 2012, attributable to a number of factors, but not least of which was the commissioning and successful start of commercial production of the Woodside-operated Pluto LNG development from the Pluto and Xena fields in the Carnarvon basin. Pluto was the first commissioned project since 2006, and may be viewed as the first of a number of developments that will be coming on-stream in the next few years, and will elevate Australia’s position in the ranking of world LNG production. Adding production from Pluto has allowed Woodside to take the lead position as the highest petroleum producer from BHP Billiton during 2012. Activity is not limited to LNG. Other highlights for 2012 included the opening of the Devil Creek project on the North West Shelf, WA’s third domestic gas hub, with the potential to supply around 20% of the state’s needs. Cost increase and schedule delay is not limited to LNG either, with Yolla mid-life enhancement and the Kipper offshore development facing cost and schedule pressure. In the broader global sphere, the highlight of 2012 is the extraordinary rise of unconventional oil in the US to the point of speculation about future US self-sufficiency. This parallels the rise of US unconventional gas in recent years, with gas supplies exceeding existing domestic demand and driving down the previously high domestic prices. Presently, only one US LNG project is approved for export; however, with an ongoing policy debate in the US about significant gas export verses retention to spur domestic growth, and favourable location of potential US access to the Asian market, the outcome is important for future competition to Australia’s cost-challenged LNG industry. Among this the announcement by Santos of the connection of the first shale gas well in Australia to sales delivery—albeit as an appraisal well—is a notable occurrence as a potential forerunner of shale gas production in Australia.

News-driven international business cycles

This paper examines the international transmission effects of news about the total factor productivity (TFP) in the US on the Canadian and Japanese economies. I develop and estimate a two-country real business cycle model to generate booms in Canadian and Japanese variables in response to news about future US TFP. I find that international macroeconomic comovements can be generated by news about the future TFP in the US. Unlike previous studies, I show that the response of the Canadian or Japanese TFP to a US news shock is important for generating the boom observed in the empirical analysis. The estimated preference parameters indicate that eliminating the wealth effect on hours worked is important. I also show that a low elasticity of substitution between domestically and foreign-produced intermediate goods can also help explain the domestic boom created by a news shock.

NONPROLIFERATION POLICY CROSSROADS:

On October 1, 2008, Congress enacted a proposal that originated with President George W. Bush in 2005 to approve an unprecedented nuclear trade pact with India by removing a central pillar of US nonproliferation policy. Despite the numerous political challenges confronting the Bush administration, the initiative won strong bipartisan support, including votes from Democratic Senators Joseph Biden, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama. The four-year struggle to pass the controversial US-India nuclear trade agreement offers an exceptionally valuable case study. It demonstrates a classic tradeoff between the pursuit of broad multilateral goals such as nuclear nonproliferation and advancement of a specific bilateral relationship. It reveals enduring fault lines in executive branch relations with Congress. It vividly portrays challenges confronting proponents of a strong nonproliferation regime. This article is based on an analysis of the negotiating record and congressional deliberations, including interviews with key participants. It assesses the lessons learned and focuses on three principal questions: how did the agreement seek to advance US national security interests?; what were the essential elements of the prolonged state-of-the-art lobbying campaign to win approval from skeptics in Congress?; and what are the agreement's actual benefits—and costs—to future US nonproliferation efforts?