Future US Research Articles

The Health and Economic Benefits of United States Investments in Measles and Rubella Control and Elimination

Background: Prior to measles vaccine introduction in 1963, measles virus caused hundreds of thousands of annual reported cases, which led to substantial US morbidity, mortality, and costs. Similarly, congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) led to highly visible and tragic lifelong disability for thousands of Americans, before rubella vaccine introduction in 1969. The US certified national virus transmission elimination of indigenous measles in 2000 and rubella in 2004. Methods: Applying an existing integrated transmission and economic model, this analysis characterizes the net benefits of US investments in measles (1963–2030) and rubella (1969–2030) immunization assuming continued high routine immunization coverage. Due to importation risks, the US maintains two doses of both vaccines in its routine immunization schedule. Results: This analysis estimates total US costs of 8.1 billion (economics reported in 2023 US dollars) for measles immunization for 1963–2023 and 14.1 billion for rubella immunization for 1969–2023. The analysis estimates an additional approximately 1.2 billion for measles immunization and 1.5 billion for rubella immunization expected for 2024–2030. Historical and future US investments prevented an estimated approximately 237 million measles infections, 228,000 measles deaths, 193 million rubella infections, and 166,000 CRS cases. These investments imply net benefits (from avoided treatment costs minus immunization costs) of approximately 310 billion for measles and 430 billion for rubella and CRS, even without incorporating avoided productivity losses and intangible costs. Conclusions: US investments in measles and rubella immunization continue to provide enormous savings of human and financial costs and to prevent substantial mortality and morbidity.

Registration of high‐yielding, high‐protein soybean germplasm USDA‐N7007 derived from wild soybean PI 366122

AbstractUSDA‐N7007 is a non‐GM, maturity group (MG) VII soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] (Reg. no. GP‐529, PI 705147) germplasm released by the USDA Agricultural Research Service in conjunction with the North Carolina Agricultural Research Service in December of 2023. USDA‐N7007 is a high‐yielding, high‐protein germplasm derived from wild soybean (Glycine soja Siebold & Zucc; PI 366122) and small‐seeded MG VII USDA cultivar N7103. Over 47 combined testing environments of the USDA Southern Uniform and USB Protein Diversity Tests (2018–2021), USDA‐N7007 yielded 98% of the check mean and 102% of the test mean. The average protein content of USDA‐N7007 was significantly higher (432 g kg−1) than the average check means of 402 g kg−1 and 413 g kg−1 in the USDA Southern Uniform and USB Protein Diversity Tests, respectively. Across both tests (2019–2021), the release was significantly (p < 0.05) higher in protein (+7 g kg−1), with 9% higher seed yield (+242 kg ha−1) than the recurrent parent N7103. USDA‐N7007 is resistant to lodging, southern root‐knot nematode, and stem canker. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first US release clearly demonstrating that the wild soybean genome can be incorporated into an elite cultivar to increase seed protein without a negative effect on seed yield. This release is a truly novel and valuable resource for development of future US soybean cultivars because it will be useful to improve both genetic diversity and seed protein simultaneously without a negative effect on seed yield.

A Historical Perspective on US Treasuries Risk Premia

The uncontrolled growth of US public debt is causing some anxiety among investors in US Treasuries. It is therefore useful to estimate the current risk premia embedded in the US yield curve and assess the extent to which investors are pricing in potential future financing difficulties for the US government.In this paper, we provide both a theoretical and empirical explanation of the factors driving the US Treasuries yield curve and how it is possible to extract what market participants are currently pricing in.It is widely acknowledged that expectations about future US monetary policy play a crucial role in this market. However, there is a notable underestimation — even within academic literature — of the symmetrical role played by expectations regarding future risk premia. Through our original modeling of the US Treasuries yield curve, we document the history of these expected risk premia. Our findings indicate that from 2000 to 2022, investors consistently underestimated the strength of demandfor US Treasuries, which may explain the somewhat unusual behavior of this key market during that period.Since 2022, however, a new paradigm has emerged. Demand for longterm US treasuries has declined due to the resurgence of inflation, while debt issuance has surged, driven by substantial deficits and the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Tightening policies. Consequently, risk premia have increased sharply.The future remains highly uncertain as lower inflation could once again bolster demand for US Treasuries while public debt is expected to continue its rapid expansion. In this volatile environment, our model will help investors manage their positions by enabling real-time comparisons between their own expectations and the actual market pricing.

A protocol for the prospective study of urinary cadmium with risk of fracture, bone loss, and muscle loss.

Cadmium (Cd) is a heavy metal and natural element found in soil and crops with increasing concentrations linked to phosphate fertilizers and sewage sludge applied to crop lands. A large fraction of older US men and woman have documented Cd exposure. Cd exposure has proven health concerns such as risk of lung cancer from inhalation and impaired renal function; however, growing evidence suggests it also influences bone and muscle health. Given that low levels of Cd could affect bone and muscle, we have designed prospective studies using the two largest and most detailed US studies of bone health in older men and women: the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study and the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures. We are investigating the association of urinary cadmium (U-Cd), as a surrogate for long-term Cd exposure, with bone and muscle health. Building off suggestive evidence from mechanistic and cross-sectional studies, this will be the first well-powered prospective study of incident fracture outcomes, bone loss, and muscle loss in relation to U-Cd, an established biomarker of long-term Cd exposure. The following is a proposed protocol for the intended study; if successful, the proposed studies could be influential in directing future US policy to decrease Cd exposure in the US population similar to recent policies adopted by the European Union to limit Cd in fertilizers.

How the Energy Transition Is Imposing New Strains on US-Saudi Relations

The energy transition is initiating long-term oil market trends that look likely to undermine the strategic importance of oil-producing countries for the US government. The trends suggest US voters and future US administrations will be less exposed to price swings and other risks in the global oil market. Diminishing risk exposure, in turn, reduces imperatives for US policymakers to spend so heavily on security provision in the Persian Gulf, or to resolve diplomatic rifts with major producers such as Saudi Arabia. Saudi policy changes since 2016, and the reduced willingness to use spare production capacity in ways that benefit Washington, may have amplified a pre-existing appetite for such a downgrade.

What would it look like? Visualizing a future US Corn Belt landscape with more table food production

Abstract Most farmland in the US Corn Belt is used to grow row crops at large scales (e.g., corn, soybean) that are highly processed before entering the human food stream rather than specialty crops grown in smaller areas and meant for direct human consumption (table food). Bolstering local table food production close to urban populations in this region through peri-urban agriculture (PUA) could enhance sustainability and resilience. Understanding factors influencing PUA producers' preferences and willingness to produce table food would enable supportive planning and policy efforts. This study combined land use visualization and survey data to examine the potential for increased local table food production for the US Corn Belt. We developed a spatial visualization of current agricultural land use and a future scenario with increased table food production designed to meet 50% of dietary requirements for a metropolitan population in 2050. A survey was administered to row crop (1360) and specialty crop (55) producers near Des Moines, Iowa, US to understand current and intended agricultural land use and factors influencing production. Responses from 316 row crop and 25 specialty crop producers were eligible for this analysis. A future scenario with increased table food production would require less than 3% of available agricultural land and some additional producers (approximately 130, primarily for grain production). Survey responses indicated PUA producers planned small increases in table food production in the next three to five years. Producer plans, including land rental for table food production, could provide approximately 25% of residents' fruit, vegetables, and grains, an increase from the baseline of 2%. Row crop producers ranked food safety regulations, and specialty producers ranked labor concerns as strong influences on their decision-making. Both groups indicated that crop insurance and processing facilities were also important. Increasing table food production by clustering mid-scale operations to increase economies of scale and strengthening supply chains and production infrastructure could provide new profitable opportunities for farmers and more resilient food systems for growing urban regions in the US Corn Belt. Continuing to address producer factors and landscape-scale environmental impacts will be critical in considering food system sustainability challenges holistically.

Shaping the future US bioeconomy through safety, security, sustainability, and social responsibility

Biomanufacturing practitioners and researchers describe the norms that should govern the growing, global field, to include safety, security, sustainability, and social responsibility. These ‘4S Principles’ should be broadly adopted so that the future of the field may provide the greatest benefits to society.

Measuring Chinese climate uncertainty

We develop indices of Twitter-based Chinese Climate Uncertainty (TC-CU) and Climate Policy Uncertainty (TC-CPU) from 2010 to onward. Our indices spike with climate change-related presidential announcements, UN climate change conferences, climate change-related flood deaths, warning about melting glaciers in China’s Qilian mountains, and rising climate concerns regarding bitcoin mining, among many others. We find that TC-CPU can predict future US climate uncertainty and attention measures while US measures do not predict Chinese climate change measures. Moreover, TC-CU (TC-CPU) negatively predicts equity returns of small (value) firms. Finally, we find a decline in CO2 emissions in response to shocks to TC-CU.

Can US Medical Schools Teach About Structural Racism?

Since the beginning of COVID-19 and the rise of social justice movements sparked by the murders of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor in the summer of 2020, many medical schools have made public statements committing themselves to become antiracist institutions. The notions that US society generally, and medicine, are rife with structural racism no longer seems as controversial in the academic community. Challenges remain, however, in how this basic understanding gets translated into medical education practice. Understanding where the profession must go should start with understanding where we currently are. Prior to the events of 2020, in the spring of 2018, we conducted nine key informant interviews to learn about the challenges and best practices from schools deemed to be positive deviants in teaching about structural racism. Our interviews showed that even those schools deemed positive deviants in the amount of teaching done about structural racism faced significant barriers in providing a robust education. Significant structural change, perhaps far beyond what most schools consider themselves willing and able to engage in, will be necessary if future US physicians are to fully understand and address structural racism as it affects their profession, their practice, and their patients.

Techno-economic evaluation of industrial heat pump applications in US pulp and paper, textile, and automotive industries

Industrial process heat decarbonization through electrification could contribute significantly to climate change mitigation efforts. In the US industry, thermal processes accounted for more than two-thirds of the total final energy demand in 2021. Cross-cutting electrification technologies like industrial heat pumps are suitable for the process heat supply to several industrial unit operations in a sustainable way while also improving overall energy efficiency. This study employs a bottom-up approach to investigate the techno-enviro-economic potentials of deploying high-temperature and steam-generating heat pumps in US textile, pulp and paper, and automotive sectors in different timeframes. The results show that the annual technical potential energy and CO2 savings by electrifying heat supply are 310 PJ (or 36% of the projected energy demand) and 28 MtCO2 (or 71% of the projected CO2 emissions) in 2050 respectively, however, these incur additional costs in each sector (ranging between 5 and 18 $/GJ). The required heating capacity of industrial heat pumps is estimated at 15 GW, which translates roughly into a market of over 6000 heat pump units and an investment volume of $7 billion in the studied processes. Although there may be individual cost-effective opportunities for electrifying heat supply in specific industrial sites, the overall costs are estimated to be high in the three industrial sectors due to the large disparity between electricity and natural gas prices and low heat source temperatures. To overcome the identified techno-economic barriers, comprehensive action plans for different stakeholders are also given. This study provides novel insights that should inform policymakers’ and executives’ decisions about the electrification of the current and future US industrial heat supply in relevant industrial sectors.

Jonathan Zimmerman. The Amateur Hour: A History of College Teaching in America.

American academic life is highly professionalized, except when it comes to teaching. Years of rigorous graduate-school education are dedicated to learning methods of research and writing in the particular disciplines, but almost no time is dedicated to learning how to teach. After a year of graduate seminars in Berkeley in the late 1970s, I was set to work as a teacher of undergraduates with no preparation of any kind, an experience that was then normal. Professional advancement for more than a century now has come through publication in prestigious journals and presses, and almost never from distinguished teaching. Jonathan Zimmerman’s marvelous book The Amateur Hour: A History of College Teaching in America explains why and shows that centuries of effort to improve college teaching have almost always failed. Eighteenth-century students hated the old technique of recitation, which required them to learn passages by heart and recite them in class. It was stultifying and extremely boring. But the gradual shift to lectures in the nineteenth century did not bring a new dawn. Dull lectures from uncharismatic teachers were equally bad. Underpaid professors often had to work exceptionally long hours—future US president James Garfield, for example, as president of the Western Reserve Eclectic Institute, was forced to offer his geology course at five o’clock in the morning. Most students responded to uninspired teaching by cheating as much as possible, playing wicked pranks on their tutors, boycotting the most hated professors, and staging rebellions. Zimmerman mentions in passing Harvard students’ “Rotten Cabbage Rebellion” of 1807.

The Power of Beliefs in US Cyber Strategy: The Evolving Role of Deterrence, Norms, and Escalation

AbstractCyberspace's role in military power is vociferously debated. But how do these ideas manifest in cyber strategy? In this article, we trace the development of ideas about military cyber power, with a focus on the USA. In particular, we use a decade of US defense cyber strategies as a lens to explore how ideas about the role of the military in promoting cyber norms, the feasibility of cyber deterrence, and the risks of escalation have morphed over time. In doing so, we identify sources of continuity and discontinuity. We then turn to the academic literature to evaluate those ideas and appraise US defense cyber strategies, identifying gaps and tensions. Finally, we leverage these insights to provide recommendations for future US defense cyber strategies.

A Future US Defense Program in an Era of Great Power Competition

The Great Power Competition requires a new defense posture that adapts to the exigencies of the Russia-Ukraine war and the rise of China. A successful defense posture will necessarily require a reexamination of US defense strategy, and, importantly, the level of resources devoted by the US and its allies to national defense. A defense real growth commitment should be initiated now and sustained for as long as this more competitive and threatening security environment remains in place

The US, Strategic Environment in the South Caucasus and Armenia: A Sight on the Future

The political, economic and geopolitical presence of the United States in the South Caucasus dates back at least a century, when, after the First World War, they emerged as a global political, economic and geopolitical actor. Cooperation has increased dramatically since 1991, when the three countries gained independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union. From this perspective, the article focuses on identifying core US interests in Eurasia and attempting to define US strategic interests and priorities with respect to the region. In this sense, the main research question is how the US relations with the South Caucasus and in particular with Armenia will look like in the future, especially within the current stage of the Ukrainian conflict that began after February 2022. The article simulates and tests four scenarios for future US engagement with the South Caucasus. Based on these scenarios, it is argued that, despite the lack of strategic interests in the region, the Ukrainian conflict prompted the US to increase its presence in the South Caucasus. This study is based on strategic documents, including the US National Security Strategy (2017), the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance of 2021, other white papers, reports, and studies of US foreign policy priorities.

P003“We are completely captured”: The influence of us foreign policy through the global gag rule on malawi's sexual and reproductive health and rights landscape

<h3>Objectives</h3> Though existing literature discusses the impacts of the global gag rule (GGR) since President Reagan enacted the policy in 1984, limited research documents its influence in countries reliant on US global health assistance, particularly when the policy is revoked. We partnered with Fòs Feminista, a leader in GGR research on this policy, to analyze how the GGR influenced Malawi's sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) landscape from 2017 to 2021. <h3>Methods</h3> We conducted 17 semi-structured interviews with current and past recipients of US global health assistance in Malawi and civil society organizations working in SRHR. We recruited participants via purposive and snowball sampling and thematically analyzed interview transcripts in MAXQDA using inductive and deductive codes. <h3>Results</h3> The GGR stalled the passage of a liberalized abortion law, cemented conservative anti-abortion attitudes, and damaged national sovereignty in Malawi. In some cases, mis-implementation of the policy restricted legal access to post-abortion and contraceptive care. The revocation signaled increased freedom for SRHR, but did not reverse the fueling of anti-abortion sentiment. Participants noted that the threat of the GGR being reinstated by a future US president caused continued fear and hesitation about investing in SRHR programs and advocacy, and contributed to a weakening of national sovereignty. <h3>Conclusions</h3> The US GGR disrupted abortion law reform in Malawi from an advocacy and policy perspective, prevented organizations from providing safe abortion care, and reinforced stigmatizing norms about abortion. Importantly, these impacts endured even after its revocation. The US government should permanently repeal the GGR, to remain accountable to its goal of protecting SRHR for all.

Interprofessional Primary Care Course Impact on Knowledge, Attitudes, and Careers.

Our innovative, highly rated, interprofessional Primary Care Course (PCC) engaged learners in dentistry, medicine, nursing, physician assistants, pharmacy, public health, and social work. PCC used a low-resource, flexible classroom format, earned 99% high student ratings, and increased PC career plans in 56% of students. This study assessed changes in PC knowledge and attitudes and tracked PC career outcomes over 5 years. We conducted before-and-after surveys of PCC students at baseline, 1-year, and 5-year follow-up, using anonymous online surveys. An additional controlled study compared PCC students with similar students from the course waitlist. Surveys yielded responses from 100% (84) at baseline, 81% (68) at 1 year, 57% (48) at 5 years, and 34% (28/83) among waitlist students at year 5. Before-and-after matched pairs analyses documented significant increases at year 1, sustained through year 5, in knowledge of PC training and referral patterns and attitudes toward PC value and role in future US health care. Precourse, 56% of students planned PC careers. At year 5, PCC graduates reported working in PC (74%, 29/39), delivering direct PC patient care (48%, 19/39), and working with underserved communities (74%, 29/39). The PC knowledge and attitudes of waitlist students at year 5 were similar to PCC student baseline scores and were significantly lower at year 5. Only 27% (7/26) of waitlist students reported working in PC at year 5. PCC was associated with sustained increases in PC knowledge, attitudes, and careers across health professions. This low-resource, flexible format can contribute to building PC knowledge, attitudes, and workforce.

The Black Athlete in West Virginia: High School and College Sports from 1900 through the End of Segregation

As of 2021, West Virginia's two Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), Bluefield State and West Virginia State, are the only two in the country that have a majority white student body. Both compete today in NCAA Division II intercollegiate sports and receive much less funding than the state's largest public colleges, Marshall University and West Virginia University. Despite such demographic and financial changes in the past fifty years of West Virginia higher education, there is a rich history of African American colleges and high schools in the state, and this is especially true for African American athletic achievement. For example, the Pittsburgh Courier voted Bluefield State in 1927 and 1928 and West Virginia State in 1936 as Black-college national co-champions in football, yet neither college enjoyed much athletic-program success following desegregation. The story of how these two colleges changed from national African American football powerhouses to majority-white universities is but one analyzed within The Black Athlete in West Virginia, but it is perhaps the central, most critical theme.In what is the work's strongest chapter, the authors trace how Bluefield State and West Virginia State became the first HBCUs in the United States to join a white-colleges-only athletic conference, in their case, the West Virginia Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (WVIAC). Both university presidents were strong believers in desegregation, and both initiated the process of joining WVIAC themselves within months of the Brown v. Board ruling. Within about six months, WVIAC college presidents met and approved both schools’ applications to join. Just like that, a West Virginia collegiate sport league was integrated, a relatively direct process that contrasts with the turmoil-filled integration stories present in chapters on Marshall and West Virginia University. But like so many civil rights stories, this simple narrative was not so cut and dry.Joining the WVIAC was celebrated among most in the two colleges, but some felt African American academic leadership betrayed Black athletes and that WVIAC membership was a step backward. First, the best African American teams from West Virginia colleges had a chance of being recognized as the national Black-college champion. This honor, typically determined by the votes of Black newspapers, was forfeited with WVIAC membership. Next, while desegregation was recognized by an overwhelming majority as a social good, the growing number of white students at each HBCU—especially Bluefield State—led to social conflict within a decade of joining the WVIAC. “While other campuses erupted in protests over the Vietnam War,” the authors write, “Bluefield's black students protested what they believed was a move by the state of West Virginia to make Bluefield State a white college and to erase its cultural heritage as a historically black college” (150). A bomb planted by an unknown perpetrator exploded in the campus physical education building in 1968. In response, the university closed its dormitories, effectively making the college a white commuter college (the surrounding county population was just 7 percent African American). Throughout all this, Bluefield State maintained a strong basketball culture largely comprised of out-of-state African American players, and social division grew.The only shortcoming in this well-researched book is that its title is a misnomer. It would have been better named “The Black Basketball and Football College Athlete in West Virginia.” Of the book's ten chapters, four are exclusively about basketball, and another four are more generally about school integration, with basketball and football serving as major cultural landmarks. Women's sports, high school sports, and other men's collegiate sports do receive an occasional mention, such as future US Olympic wrestler Bobby Douglas, but more of these examples would have provided greater depth. For instance, famed African American sportswriter Wendell Smith played baseball at West Virginia State College. Smith claimed that a white Major League scout told him that he would never be signed to a lucrative contract due to professional baseball's color barrier, at which point Smith promised himself to fight for baseball integration. He would go on to be a pivotal character in Jackie Robinson's story, which began for Smith on a baseball diamond just outside Charleston, West Virginia. Regardless, this is a strong contribution to sport history, to the history of school desegregation, and to West Virginia history. Anyone with interest in any of these topics should consider this work a top priority.

President Biden’s remarks about Afghanistan: the end of us liberal interventionism?

In August 2021, the United States completed their military mission in Afghanistan and withdrawn all their troops after 20 years of war. This article provides a discourse analysis of the public speeches released by US President Joe Biden during such a month, from 16th to 26th August. The primary goal is to critically address the US President’s speeches on Afghanistan to the contextual situation on the ground as well as to the conceptual basis of the US foreign policy strategy. What emerges from this study is a revised US foreign policy where some of the basic pillars of liberal interventionism are sacrificed in the name of a renewed national interest. In particular, the prospect of directly fostering democracy in foreign states as a way to promote international peace and security seems here abandoned for more surgical interventions of counterterrorism. Likewise, the world is depicted as a zero-sum game where the gain of one player is inevitably associated with the loss of another one. Such strategical change, if confirmed in the next years, will produce noteworthy consequences on the future US global policy. Key words: Afghanistan, US military withdrawn, Joe Biden, discourse analysis, liberalism.

A survey of chairpersons of departments of medicine about the current and future roles of clinical genetics in internal medicine

Purpose: The response of academic Departments of Medicine (DOM), who train the bulk of future US internists, to the increasing importance of clinical genetics is not known.Methods: A survey was distributed to 153 DOM chairpersons assessing the current and future roles of clinical genetics as related to internal medicine.Results: Eighty-five (56%) surveys with complete data were returned. A minority of DOM currently employ geneticists; most genetics education and services are provided by nongeneticists; the general competency of internists to deliver genetic services is unclear.Conclusions: Academic DOM have limited faculty expertise in clinical genetics; this may impact the ability to integrate genetics into internal medicine practice and training.

Brief Research Commentary: The US Indigenous Food Sovereignty Movement’s Impact on Understandings of COVID‐19 in Indian Country

AbstractThis research commentary provides an overview of contemporary anthropological research regarding the US Indigenous food sovereignty movement and demonstrates how it informs the impacts of COVID‐19 on Indian Country. Past anthropological research on US Indigenous foodways, while useful, has lacked US Indigenous voices and in‐depth political context. Alternatively, many current Indigenous scholars prioritize integration of this crucial political landscape, thus increasing the relevancy and application of this work. For this review, I begin by coalescing a selection of these recent research developments, primarily focusing on research undertaken by Indigenous scholars currently in, and affiliated with, anthropology. I then connect the ways in which their ethnographic and community‐based findings shed insight into challenges that arose during the Covid‐19 pandemic in 2020. Finally, I critique anthropology’s lack of support for these research projects and offer suggestions regarding future US Indigenous food sovereignty research directions.