Future Projects Research Articles

Analysis of Land Suitability for Maize Production under Climate Change and Its Mitigation Potential through Crop Residue Management

Land Suitability Analysis (LSA), under the impact of climate change, is a fundamental approach to the design of appropriate land management strategies for sustainable crop production and food security. In this study, the FAO framework was used to assess the impact of climate change on land suitability for maize in Flanders, Belgium. The current LSA revealed the marginal suitability for maize cultivation, characterizing most of the agricultural land in Flanders and identifying precipitation as the most limiting factor for maize suitability. The LSA, under two climate change scenarios, was based on climate projections from several CMIP5 Global Circulation Models, transformed into future land suitability projections and assembled into a multi-model ensemble (MME) of projected suitability changes. The results indicate an average reduction in projected suitability of approximately 7% by 2099 under the high-emission scenario. The potential of the Soil-Improving Cropping System (SICS) to mitigate the impacts of climate change on land suitability was statistically significant under both low- and high-emission scenarios. This research provides valuable insights into the MME modeling of climate change impacts on land suitability and its associated uncertainty, with the application of SICS as a potential long-term mitigation measure to promote sustainable agricultural practices.

Analysis of spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation carbon use efficiency in watershed ecosystem and construction of ecological network: a case study of the Yangtze River Basin

ABSTRACT Watershed ecosystems play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, and the feedback effects of carbon cycling will have significant implications for future climate change. Therefore, this study utilizes MODIS data to estimate the vegetation carbon use efficiency (CUE) of the Yangtze River Basin (hereafter referred to as the YRB) aiming to explore its spatiotemporal patterns. Additionally, partial correlation analysis is employed to investigate the driving forces of climate and ecosystem types on vegetation CUE. Furthermore, an ecological network is constructed to examine the impact of CUE changes on the stability of the ecosystems.The results indicate that the CUE values in the vegetation ecosystems of the YRB exceed the threshold of 0.5, a constant CUE value commonly used in numerous ecological models. However, even within the same geographical region, different ecosystem types exhibit distinct CUE values, underscoring the complexity of the ecological landscape.Over the past 15 years, there has been an observable declining trend in CUE for the vegetation ecosystems within the YRB. Moreover, future projections suggest a continued decrease in CUE at the pixel scale, with land use changes possibly serving as a primary contributing factor. Interestingly, within the same ecosystem, higher temperatures and reduced precipitation appear to enhance CUE, implying that under adverse environmental conditions, plants may enhance their efficiency in converting atmospheric carbon into terrestrial biomass.Ultimately, an ecological network is established to investigate the influence of CUE changes on the stability of the ecosystems. Notably, alterations in CUE within the upstream ecological source areas of the Yangtze River exhibit a particularly pronounced impact on the overall ecosystem stability.These research findings hold paramount significance, deepening our understanding of carbon cycling variations in the YRB, while also providing valuable insights for safeguarding the ecological environment and formulating strategies to address the challenges posed by climate change.

Economic viability of floating wave power farms considering the energy generated in the near future

This article aims to analyse the economic viability of floating wave energy farms for the present and the next twenty years. The energy potential of the waves mainly depends on the climate, so the current and near future analysis is crucial to determine the economic viability of wave energy farms in a particular location. Current and near future wave resources were considered to assess the main parameters (Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)) that allow to know the economic feasibility of wave energy farms. This study takes one step forward in determining the economic evaluation of wave energy farms located in deep waters using their future energy projections. The case of study in this paper is the Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula. Results indicate that the future wave energy reduction principally affects the NPV and LCOE of the wave farm.

Compounding or Curative? Investigating the impact of electrolyzer deployment on congestion management in the German power grid

Integrating large amounts of hydrogen production capacities for decarbonizing energy-intensive industries in Germany can be challenging for transmission system operators. This research investigates interactions of hydrogen production deployment pathways and associated congestion management policies with the operation of the German electricity transmission system for future market projections. Hydrogen electrolysis imputes additional electricity loads above conventional levels. A scenario framework is created representing different geographic electrolyzer deployment pathways and congestion management regulations for electrolyzer operation. Fundamental electricity market modeling and load flow optimization are proposed to evaluate resulting congestion management volumes to resolve grid bottlenecks associated with the market clearing dispatch. Overall results of this work highlight the importance of designing congestion management frameworks that enable efficient utilization of electrolyzers as a redispatch capacity, primarily if a demand-oriented deployment of electrolyzer installations near energy-intensive industries is assumed to support renewable energy integration. Differences in congestion management cost between demand- and supply-oriented deployment pathways of electrolyzer capacity lie in the range of 0.77–0.97 bn Euro if electrolyzers cannot be redispatched but almost diminish to 0.10–0.21 bn Euro in the scenarios that include electrolyzer as a redispatch capacity. The findings of this work assist policymakers and regulators with valuable insights into design options for future congestion management frameworks.

Analyzing photodegradation of dissolved organic matter in different water bodies: river, lake, and pond

DOM is an important part of water ecosystems worldwide and provides a specific footprint to water bodies. A photochemical reactor and UV/Vis-spectrophotometer were used to treat and characterize water samples from Lake Xuanwu, Qinhuai River, and a pond. Comparing the absorbance, DOC concentration, and SUVA254 values of the water samples shows that UV radiation could degrade aromatics contents in water, and the process is most pronounced in the pond water samples compared to the other two. The results of this study could provide a reference to other studies regarding the hydrosphere in Nanjing and be helpful to future projects in the protection of the Xuanwu Lake and Qinhuai River in Nanjing.

Mapping Renewable Energy among Antarctic Research Stations

This paper presents an overview of current electricity generation and consumption patterns in the Antarctic. Based on both previously published and newly collected data, the paper describes the current status of renewable-energy use at research stations in the Antarctic. A more detailed view of electricity systems is also presented, demonstrating how different types of resources may be used and combined. The paper will serve as a guide to various renewable-energy generation technologies, highlighting well-established praxis, lessons learned, and potential ideas for improvement. Several renewable electricity generation technologies that have proven effective for use in the Antarctic environment are described. as well as those that are currently in use. Finally, the paper summarizes the major lessons learned to support future projects and close the knowledge gap. The use of renewable-energy sources has the potential to reduce research stations’ greenhouse gas emissions, making research in Antarctica more sustainable. The availability of high-quality energy is crucial for survival and to allow scientists to conduct meaningful research at research stations under harsh Antarctic conditions.

Lack of local genetic representation in one of the regions with the highest bird species richness, the Peruvian Amazonia.

Peru ranks among the three countries with the highest bird species diversity globally and a majority of those species are found in the Peruvian Amazon. However, birds in this area are currently facing serious anthropogenic threats. Genetic and genomic methods are becoming important tools for avian biodiversity monitoring and conservation planning. Comprehensive molecular libraries that are publicly available are key to the effective deployment of these tools. We analyze the information gaps for four molecular markers in the most important genetic sequence databases, Barcode of Life Data Systems (BOLD) and NCBI GenBank, for bird species of the Peruvian Amazonia. We found that 64% of Peruvian Amazonian bird species have gene sequences for COI, 59.5% have CYTB sequences, 16.4% have 12S sequences, and only 0.6% have 18S sequences. However, these numbers decrease drastically to 4.3% for COI sequences when we only consider specimens sampled in Peru. Our data also showed that 43.8% of Peruvian Amazonian endemic species (n = 32) are missing sequences of any screened marker uploaded to GenBank or BOLD. Our results will encourage and guide efforts of the scientific community to complete reference libraries for Peruvian avian species that will be useful for future DNA-based monitoring projects that include birds.

The rising human footprint in the Tibetan Plateau threatens the effectiveness of ecological restoration on vegetation growth

Ecological restoration projects in the Tibetan Plateau aimed to reverse ecosystem degradation and safeguard the fragile alpine ecological environment. However, it is still being determined if the vegetation restoration is successful on a large scale or reaches the expected magnitude, restricting our ability to adapt practices to maximise the benefit. With multiple vegetation indices (VIs: NDVI, LAI, and GPP) from satellite observations and random forest machine-learning models, we performed an attribution study on vegetation growth trends caused by climate change and human activities. Then, we further explored the relationship between vegetation growth and ecological projects and human footprint without the influence of climate. The results showed that climatic change was a relatively strong driver of vegetation growth. The positive contributions of ecological restoration occurred only in half of the plateau due to the increased human footprint. Vegetation enhancement resulting from ecological restoration occurred in 13.1%–23.1% of the plateau. Among these values, ecological restoration counteracted the negative climate effects in 4.7%–8.3% of the plateau (about half of the negative climate effect area). In forest and grassland protection areas, the ecological restoration was more successful. The study provides a better understanding of the role of ecological projects in vegetation restoration and potential threats to its effectiveness. This is essential to improve future restoration projects.

Historical footprints and future projections of global dust burden from bias-corrected CMIP6 models

Dust aerosols significantly affect the Earth’s climate, not only as a source of radiation, but also as ice nuclei, cloud condensation nuclei and thus affect CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. However, there are large deviations in dust model simulations due to limited observations on a global scale. Based on ten initial Climate Models Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) models, the multi-model ensemble (MME) approximately underestimates future changes in global dust mass loading (DML) by 7–21%, under four scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Therefore, this study primarily constrains the CMIP6 simulations under various emission scenarios by applying an equidistant cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) method combined with the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2) datasets based on observation assimilation. We find that the results (19.0–26.1 Tg) for 2000–2014 are closer to MERRA2 (20.0–24.8 Tg) than the initial simulations (4.4–37.5 Tg), with model deviation reduced by up to 75.6%. We emphasize that the DML during 2081–2100 is expected to increase significantly by 0.023 g m–2 in North Africa and the Atlantic region, while decreasing by 0.006 g m–2 in the Middle East and East Asia. In comparison with internal variability and scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty accounts for more than 70% of total uncertainty. When bias correction is applied, model uncertainty significantly decreases by 65% to 90%, resulting in a similar variance contribution to internal variability.

Data Opportunities: Creating a web of knowledge

Large-scale projects, such as infrastructure or long-term research, generate some of the largest data sets which form the core of their legacy for research and future projects. Due to the scale of the data being generated and managed, projects have developed innovative approaches to transform data into meaningful information and ensure integration of data into the project lifecycle. This paper serves to present the background and context for the session presented at EAA 2022, Budapest, organised by HS2 Ltd and Jacobs Suedlink and summarises some of the papers presented within the session and which are now published in this issue.

Edagogical strategies with ICT in vulnerable educational contexts: Impact on the pandemic and future projections

La pandemia por la COVID-19 desencadenó una serie de cambios en los ámbitos académico, social y económico acusado por la situación de Estado de Alarma. La educación fue uno de los espacios más afectados debido al cierre de las instituciones educativas como medida preventiva en la propagación de la cadena vírica. El tránsito de una educación presencial a una docencia virtual supuso una de las soluciones de emergencia y ello generó una brecha digital que también se convirtió en una brecha de aprendizaje. El propósito de este estudio ha sido analizar las repercusiones de la COVID-19 en las prácticas pedagógicas docentes mediadas por el uso de las tecnologías y sus efectos en los procesos formativos del alumnado y familias de centros educativos de alta complejidad de la provincia de Málaga (España). La metodología fue cualitativa a partir de entrevistas en profundidad. Los resultados más significativos apuntan la existencia de absentismo virtual durante el confinamiento, lo que implicó desfases curriculares significativos en buena parte de estudiantes, el incremento de metodologías de corte innovador para favorecer la motivación del alumnado, así como la falta de recursos que garantizasen la igualdad de oportunidades desde los parámetros de la educación inclusiva.

The functions of remembering the past and imagining the future during the COVID‐19 pandemic

AbstractIn this study, we explored how the COVID‐19 pandemic affected the functions of autobiographical memory and future projection over time. Between May and June 2020, we asked people (N = 286) to recall or imagine personal events from four time periods: past before the pandemic, past during the pandemic, future during the pandemic, and future after the pandemic ends. Participants rated self, social, directive, predictive, and emotion regulation functions, and the phenomenological characteristics of these events. We found that ratings for all functions decreased for the pandemic and increased for the future. Overall, this study revealed that the COVID‐19 pandemic created a breaking point, with memories being less functional at the beginning of the pandemic compared to the pre‐pandemic times and the future. However, imagined events that would occur after the pandemic ended were rated most functional, suggesting that people were still optimistic about a pandemic‐free future.

Dark future for a black salamander: effects of climate change and conservation implications for an endemic alpine amphibian

Climate change is threatening several montane species across the world, including a large number of endemics, needing the development of forward-looking conservation strategies to foster their future survival. In this context, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) represent a useful method to forecast changes in species’ habitat suitability under different scenarios of global warming, often advising conservation frameworks with credible, defensible and repeatable information. In this paper, we estimate the environmental and bioclimatic suitability for an endemic mountain amphibian (Salamandra lanzai) in the western European Alps through an SDM approach, considering both current and future scenarios, to address short- and long-term management and conservation actions, and to update the current IUCN extinction risk assessment. The ensemble model forecasts predict a dramatic decline of the climatically suitable area for the Lanza’s alpine salamander in the next 20–40 years, even considering an optimistic CO2 emissions scenario, leading to a theoretical extinction of this species in 2100 in case the worst global warming prediction will be actualised. This underlines the urgent need for up-to-date conservation and management strategies to ensure the successful mitigation of climate change effects on S. lanzai, especially by adapting and improving the network of protected areas, immediately removing additional threats and identifying possible management actions able to increase fine-scale habitat suitability and connectivity among populations. In addition, a significant range contraction in the future has to be considered when assessing the extinction risk for this species, possibly exacerbating the effect of other threatening factors, such as the spread of lethal pathogens. Keywords: Salamandra lanzai, ensemble models, environmental suitability, bioclimatic suitability, future projections

Articulating Our-selves: the (extra)ordinary art of life

This paper offers a dialogical engagement with Bhekizizwe Peterson’s oeuvre of work through the framing of narrative subjectivity as constituted by three intertwined threads: 1) relationality; 2) temporality; and 3) embodiment (Bradbury, 2020). Peterson offers critical and creative resources for reconfiguring psychosocial praxis, persisting with the question of what it might mean to be human in dehumanising conditions. In his analytically rigorous formulation, ubuntu becomes a tool for dismantling atomised notions of individuality, rethinking subjectivity as inherently relational. The narration of these relational bonds is not restricted to the plane of the present. Narrative time disrupts linearity and Peterson theorises intergenerational life by attending to memory, particularly the traumatic repetitions of black spectrality, and imagination in the projection of alternative futures. The activation of memory and imagination in works of art offers resources for thinking and living, for the construction of culture in the flows of historical life. However, it is not only the life of the arts that Peterson theorises but the art of life, the (extra)ordinary everyday embodied practices of (extra)ordinary people. This approach to rethinking personhood is refracted through the ambiguous notion of articulation as, on the one hand, the expression of private thought and felt meaning in public discourse, and on the other, connection, conjoining or hinging together. Narrative captures both senses of this term and offers us a way of thinking, with Peterson, not only about the arts but also about psychosocial life.

The inadequacy of current carbon storage assessment methods for rewilding: A Knepp Estate case study

Abstract In the context of global climate change mitigation, carbon storage in woody vegetation plays a crucial role. Recognising the value of the i‐Tree Eco model for carbon storage in urban and forestry settings, this study aimed to explore its applicability to rewilded landscapes. Using direct measurements from destructively sampled scrub from the Knepp Estate, our goal was to determine the model's suitability to this landscape. Our findings reveal that these methods are not appropriate for multi‐stemmed trees below browsing height, as we observed no significant relationship between stem basal diameter and height. The i‐Tree tool's assumption of below‐ground biomass being 26% of above‐ground biomass may not be applicable to herbivore‐influenced landscapes. Additionally, we found that, on average, scrub at Knepp had more biomass below the ground than above, with a root:shoot ratio of 1.07, which is more than four times the amount predicted by current models using the 0.26 estimate ratio. This study underscores the need for novel allometric approaches that consider species‐specific biomass and the impact of external factors, such as herbivory, on carbon storage. Accurate carbon accounting in future rewilding projects is essential for their contribution to both biodiversity enhancement and climate change mitigation. While the i‐Tree Eco model provides valuable insights for many ecosystems, our findings suggest that its applicability may be limited in scrubland ecosystems, especially in rewilded landscapes where natural processes create semi‐stable scrub and open wood pastures. Nonetheless, with suitable adjustments or when complemented with other methods, the i‐Tree Eco model could be a valuable tool for specific scrub or rewilding scenarios.

Tourism development impacts, cultural intelligence and community support for future development

Purpose – This study examines the dynamics of cultural intelligence (CQ) on the tripartite tourism development impacts (TDI) in the economic, social and environmental domains and how it influences residents’ perceptions of tourism development. Methodology/Design/Approach – Using a quantitative cross-sectional research design and random sampling, three hundred and forty-one (341) responses were analysed using partial least Square-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). Findings – The study confirms that the TDI dimensions (economic and social) have a positive influence on CQ, while environmental impact is an insignificant determinant. CQ also significantly mediates the relationship between TDI (economic and social impact) and SFTD. Similar to the insignificant direct effect, CQ does not mediate the relationship between environmental impact and SFTD. Originality of the research – This finding suggests that cultural intelligence plays a crucial role in shaping community attitudes and receptivity to future tourism development projects. Furthermore, the result of this study emphasises the uniqueness of the influence of the different TDI dimensions on community support and the urgency of addressing economic and social concerns in tourism development.

Evaluation of a bioenergy resource of agricultural residues and municipal solid wastes in Benin

<abstract> <p>Benin is one of the West African countries with low access to energy. Abundant residues are generated from different activities in Benin, most of which are not yet considered for energy generation. In this study, we aim to evaluate the potential of bioenergy resources from agricultural residues and municipal solid waste (MSW) in Benin. Eleven (11) agricultural residues have been considered in the study and four of them with high bioenergy potential have been used in the Bioenergy and Food Security Rapid Appraisal (BEFS RA) tool to evaluate how much electricity could be generated from gasification and analyze the social and economic benefits that can be attained. We also introduce the residue-to-product approach and the NPV and IRR method to estimate the potential of agricultural residues and MSW and analyze the viability of generating electricity through the gasification process. Data for agricultural residues have been collected from Benin's Directorate of Agricultural Statistics governmental website and MSW data is estimated using World Bank data for 2012 and 2025. Our estimation shows that a total bioenergy potential of 142.63 PJ can be generated from agricultural residue and MSW in Benin produced in 2021. Agricultural residues are the highest contributor, contributing up to 98%. The bioenergy potential available for electricity generation is estimated at 85.6 PJ with maize the major contributor at 45%, followed by cotton and cassava residues at 17% and 13%, respectively. The BEFS RA simulation shows that 20, 849; 83, 395 and 208, 488 kWh per year can be generated from the available feedstock based on using 10, 40, and 100 kW plants respectively. Moreover, the net present value and the internal rate of return of all power plants are positive, showing the importance of investing in power generation through gasification systems. It is also important that future bioenergy projects include maize, cotton, and cassava residue as a priority for bioenergy generation since their energy potential appears to be higher than for other crops.</p> </abstract>

Drought projection from CMIP6 Climate models over Morocco in the 21st century using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)

Quantifying how climate change drives drought in the 21st century is a priority to inform policy and adaptation planning in Morocco. SPEI drought index calculated from precipitation and temperature at 12 months’ time-scale covering the agricultural year September-August was carried out for each of the five models over the future period 2023-2099. The average changes across Morocco were obtained by comparing between the averages of SPEI values and the drought zone percentages (Light, Moderate, Severe and Extreme). Also, by comparing drought characteristics for the different 11-year time horizons 2023-2033, 2034-2044, 2045-2055, 2056-2066, 2067-2077, 2078-2088 and at the end 2089-2099. The study of future drought projections based on the SSP2-4.5 scenario of the CMIP6 models indicates a worsening of drought in Morocco during the second half of the century. Moderate drought is expected to predominate, with a sharp increase in the area affected by drought, even reaching 90% over six years. These results are essential for decision-makers in water resources management, highlighting the need to put in place strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of drought, including the efficient use of water resources.

Adaptive Risk Management in Road Construction: Oyon-Ambo Highway Insights, El Niño 2019 Case Study

This research provides an in-depth analysis of the challenges faced during the construction of the Oyon-Ambo highway in Peru, particularly during the extreme rainfall events associated with the 2019 El Niño phenomenon. Situated in the high Andean area of the Pasco region, this rigid pavement road project encountered significant disruptions due to the extraordinary weather conditions. The adjacent Chaupihuaranga River experienced increased flow rates, causing extensive damage to the road and necessitating substantial modifications to the engineering plans. Focusing on 14 critical sectors identified in the project's technical file as prone to instability, the study details the accelerated degradation and eventual destruction of these sectors due to the intense rainfall. Emphasizing the importance of adaptive risk management in road construction, especially in regions susceptible to natural phenomena like El Niño, the paper underscores the need for responsive reengineering approaches based on specific damage types. It also highlights the critical role of continuous monitoring and evaluation in adapting to environmental changes. The insights from the Oyon-Ambo highway case offer valuable lessons for future road construction projects, underscoring the importance of proactive and adaptive risk management strategies to minimize the impacts of extraordinary natural events.

On‐field Agroecosystem Research Experience: An Undergraduate Perspective

AbstractUndergraduate hands‐on research can foster innovation and critical thinking among young scholars to delve into real‐world challenges. Specifically, exploring the critical nexus between water usage and agricultural yield, can foster academic growth and holds the key to addressing global food security in an era of increasing environmental constraints, where students can unlock insights crucial to enhancing crop yield and sustainability. Investigating the intricate relationship between water management and crop productivity through undergraduate research is exemplified in this article. Undergraduate students acquired hands‐on research experience by collecting, processing, and analyzing destructive (crop biomass samples) and non‐destructive (plant height, nodes, and leaf chlorophyll content) cropping system data on soybeans under irrigated and dryland production systems, where they worked closely with the farmer. Identifying the current research problem and study site selection, scientific decision‐making during the field study, developing critical thinking while ensuring research communication skills, and quality assurance and quality control through technology during data collection and analysis were learning outcomes. The research highlights the observed distinct performance between irrigated and non‐irrigated soybeans using non‐destructive plant health and growth indicators with plant biomass, following appropriate quality control and assurance steps. Statistically, irrigated soybeans outperformed non‐irrigated soybeans in terms of average plant height at maturity (irrigated: 97.0±1.7 cm vs. non‐irrigated: 37.4±0.6 cm; p<0.01) and number of nodes on the mainstem (irrigated: 19.5±1.2 vs. non‐irrigated: 12.6±0.8; p<0.01). Findings from this study can help ensure quality control and assurance in future cropping system projects. Through the agroecosystem study, we exhibit the importance and role of undergraduate research opportunities in developing the next generation of problem solvers.