Future Projects Research Articles

Association of KRAS G12C status with age at onset of metastatic colorectal cancer in the Brazilian population: A multicenter analysis of a molecular profile database (RAS, BRAF and MSI status).

173 Background: Precision oncology has changed clinical practice in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). However, there is little data about molecular epidemiology of mCRC in Brazil. Our study aims to create a nation-wide database to develop future projects in the Oncoclinicas Group. Methods: This was an observational, retrospective, and multicenter study. Anonymized medical records of adult patients (18 years or older) with mCRC from January 2019 to July 2023 were reviewed. All specimens were centrally reviewed in our laboratory (all tissue-based analysis). Demographic data included age, gender, region of origin and sidedness. Molecular data included RAS, BRAF and MMR status. Descriptive statistics, frequencies and percentages were used for categorical variables, while mean and medians for numerical variables. The correlation between variables was analyzed through Chi-square and T-test (when applicable). Significance for all results was established as a p value of < 0.05. The statistical software used was SPSS. Results: A total of 858 cases were included. Median age was 63.7 y/o (range 22-95) and 11.9% were < 45 y/o. Male patients represented 50.3% of the population and 76.1% were from the Southeast region. Left-sided tumors comprised 59.2% of the cases, 36.8% were right-sided and 4% were not specified. Wild-type KRAS corresponded to 46.7% of the total cases, while 49.4% were KRAS mutant and 3.9% NRAS mutant. The most common KRAS mutations were G12V (27.6%) and G12D (23.5%). KRAS G12C mutation was found in 6.4% of all KRAS mutant tumors. The most common NRAS mutation was the Q61K (24.2%). Only 7.3% of cases were BRAF mutated, most of them V600E, only 5 non-V600E mutations were detected. MSI-high was present in 14 cases only (1.6%). In the age-stratified analysis, left-sidedness (p=0.001) and KRAS G12C mutation (p=0.016) were associated with younger age (<45 y/o). In the sidedness-stratified analysis, younger age (p=0.001), BRAF mutation (p=0.001) and MSI-high status (p=0.009), were more common in right-sided tumors. Conclusions: In our Brazilian cohort of mCRC patients, frequencies of RAS and BRAF mutations were similar to worldwide data. However, we found lower than expected frequency of MSI-high tumors. KRAS G12C mutation was associated with early-onset mCRC, an emergent population in which KRAS G12C inhibitors might be particulary useful. To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest cohort in the Brazilian population with mCRC reporting RAS, BRAF and MSI status. Larger studies are needed to confirm these findings.

An 8-model ensemble of CMIP6-derived ocean surface wave climate

We present a global wind wave climate model ensemble composed of eight spectral wave model simulations forced by 3-hourly surface wind speed and daily sea ice concentration from eight different CMIP6 GCMs. The spectral wave model uses ST6 physics parametrizations and a global three-grid structure for efficient Arctic and Antarctic wave modeling. The ensemble performance is evaluated against a reference global multi-mission satellite altimeter database and the recent ECMWF IFS Cy46r1 ERA5 wave hindcast, ERA5H. For each ensemble member three 30-year slices, one historical, and two future emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) are available, and cover two distinct periods: 1985–2014 and 2071–2100. Two models extend to 140 years (1961–2100) of continuous wind wave climate simulations. The present ensemble outperforms a previous CMIP5-forced wind wave climate ensemble, showing improved performance across all ocean regions. This dataset is a valuable resource for future wind wave climate research and can find practical applications in offshore and coastal engineering projects, providing crucial insights into the uncertainties connected to wind wave climate future projections.

Heterogeneous Basal Thermal Conditions Underpinning the Adélie‐George V Coast, East Antarctica

AbstractAdélie‐George V Land in East Antarctica, encompassing the vast Wilkes Subglacial Basin, has a configuration that could be prone to ice sheet instability: the basin's retrograde bed slope could make its marine terminating glaciers vulnerable to warm seawater intrusion and irreversible retreat under predicted climate forcing. However, future projections are uncertain, due in part to limited subglacial observations near the grounding zone. Here, we develop a novel statistical approach to characterize subglacial conditions from radar sounding observations. Our method reveals intermixed frozen and thawed bed within 100 km of the grounding‐zone near the Wilkes Subglacial Basin outflow, and enables comparisons to ice sheet model‐inferred thermal states. The signs of intermixed or near thawed conditions raises the possibility that changes in basal thermal state could impact the stability of Adélie‐George V Land, adding to the region's potentially vulnerable topographic configuration and sensitivity to ocean forcing driven grounding line retreat.

RSHUD v2.0: advancing the Simulator for Hydrologic Unstructured Domains and unstructured hydrological modeling in the R environment

Abstract. Hydrological modeling is a crucial component in hydrology research, particularly for projecting future scenarios. However, achieving reproducibility and automation in distributed hydrological modeling research for modeling, simulation, and analysis is challenging. This paper introduces rSHUD v2.0, an innovative, open-source toolkit developed in the R environment to enhance the deployment and analysis of the Simulator for Hydrologic Unstructured Domains (SHUD). The SHUD is an integrated surface–subsurface hydrological model that employs a finite-volume method to simulate hydrological processes at various scales. The rSHUD toolkit includes pre- and post-processing tools, facilitating reproducibility and automation in hydrological modeling. The utility of rSHUD is demonstrated through case studies of the Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory in the USA and the Waerma watershed in China. The rSHUD toolkit's ability to quickly and automatically deploy models while ensuring reproducibility has facilitated the implementation of the Global Hydrological Data Cloud (https://ghdc.ac.cn, last access: 1 September 2023), a platform for automatic data processing and model deployment. This work represents a significant advancement in hydrological modeling, with implications for future scenario projections and spatial analysis.

Theoretical modeling of a co-located system with a floating wind platform and vertical truncated cylinders array

Combined floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs), wave energy converters (WECs), and floating solar photovoltaics (FPVs) systems have the potential to provide cost-effective solutions for offshore multi-energy complementation and structure protection. In this study, a theoretical model based on the potential flow theory and eigenfunction matching method is utilized to study wave diffraction and radiation by a co-located system, in which the main components of the wind platform and WECs are made of vertical cylindrical floats. Based on the displacement constraint matrix, coupled equations of motion are developed to calculate the kinematic response of the co-located systems. After running the convergence analysis and model validation, the present model is employed to perform a multiparameter impact analysis. Case studies are presented to clarify the effects of the WEC radius, draft, layout, power take-off (PTO) system, and incident wave heading and frequency on the hydrodynamic coefficient, wave energy capture width, and motion response of the wind platform. Our findings highlight that several factors play a crucial role in the performance of the co-located system, more importantly, that the theoretical model developed in this study is capable of effectively predicting the wave-structure interactions in wave fields, making it applicable to future wave farm projects.

Ensemble modeling of global lake evaporation under climate change

Global projections of lake evaporation are typically based on simulations using single mechanistic models. However, because of its complex interactions with various lake physical properties, environmental and anthropogenic drivers, lake evaporation is highly variable and sensitive to the choice of model used. In this study, we present a multi-model analysis to investigate differences across global simulations of lake evaporation during the warm-season using three different lake models driven by outputs from four general circulation models (GCM) (i.e. 12 model combinations in total) for historic and future scenarios. Our results suggest substantial differences among lake-climate model simulations of lake evaporation. These differences varied throughout the 20th and 21st century, with model driver data explaining 74% of the variance in future projections of warm-season lake evaporation. Our projections indicate that, by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), global annual lake evaporation rates will increase by 10–27% under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. We highlight the importance of using a multi-model approach for the prediction of future global lake evaporation responses to climate change.

Assessing the existing guidelines of environmental impact assessment and mitigation measures for future hydropower projects in Pakistan

Introduction: More than 16% of the total electricity used worldwide is met by hydropower, having local to regional environmental consequences. With positive indicators that energy is becoming more broadly available and sustainable, the world is moving closer to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7). Pakistan became the first nation to include the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in its national development strategy.Methodology: The current study sought to investigate the structural limits of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) guidelines for hydropower development in Pakistan. The study included the document review of the EIA reports about hydropower projects in Pakistan, scientific questionnaires from decision-makers, and public consultation.Results and Discussion: The document evaluates that an adequate mechanism is available, and donors like the Asian Development Bank and World Bank observe the implementation process of EIA in Pakistan. However, a comprehensive analysis of the EIA system found several things that could be improved, not only in the institutional framework but also in actual implementation and practices. More than 20% of respondent decision-makers disagreed with the compliance of the current Institutional Framework with EIA guidelines, and 25% think that the existing guidelines followed in Pakistan are not aligned with international standards and practices for Hydropower in actual practice. EIA has a limited impact on decision-making due to insufficient technical and financial resources.Recommendations: There should be a think tank with experts who can meet the needs of present and future epochs. The public should be communicated with and educated about EIA. For better efficiency, the officers and decision-makers should be trained internationally, i.e., the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA).

Fusion and classification algorithm of octacalcium phosphate production based on XRD and FTIR data

The present manuscript tested an automated analysis sequence to provide a decision support system to track the OCP synthesis from α\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\alpha$$\\end{document}-TCP over time. Initially, the XRD and FTIR signals from a hundredfold scaled-up hydrolysis of OCP from α\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\alpha$$\\end{document}-TCP were fused and modeled by the curve fitting based on the significantly established maxima from the literature and nine features extracted from the fitted shapes. Afterward, the analysis sequence enclosed the machine learning techniques for feature ranking, spatial filtering, and dimensionality reduction to support the automatic recognition of the synthesis stages. The proposed analysis pipeline for OCP identification might be the foundation for a decision support system explicitly targeting OCP synthesis. Future projects will exploit the suggested methodology for pinpointing the OCP production over time (including the intermediary phases present in the OCP formation) and for evaluating whether biological variables might be merged with biomaterial properties to build a unified model of tissue response to the implant.

Genetic structure and ecological niche space of lentil's closest wild relative, Lens orientalis (Boiss.) Schmalh.

Crops arose from wild ancestors and to understand their domestication it is essential to compare the cultivated species with their crop wild relatives. These represent an important source of further crop improvement, in particular in relation to climate change. Although there are about 58,000 Lens accessions held in genebanks, only 1% are wild. We examined the geographic distribution and genetic diversity of the lentil's immediate progenitor L. orientalis. We used Genotyping by Sequencing (GBS) to identify and characterize differentiation among accessions held at germplasm collections. We then determined whether genetically distinct clusters of accessions had been collected from climatically distinct locations. Of the 195 genotyped accessions, 124 were genuine L. orientalis with four identified genetic groups. Although an environmental distance matrix was significantly correlated with geographic distance in a Mantel test, the four identified genetic clusters were not found to occupy significantly different environmental space. Maxent modelling gave a distinct predicted distribution pattern centred in the Fertile Crescent, with intermediate probabilities of occurrence in parts of Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, Morocco, and the south of the Iberian Peninsula with NW Africa. Future projections did not show any dramatic alterations in the distribution according to the climate change scenarios tested. We have found considerable diversity in L. orientalis, some of which track climatic variability. The results of the study showed the genetic diversity of wild lentil and indicate the importance of ongoing collections and in situ conservation for our future capacity to harness the genetic variation of the lentil progenitor.

Abstract PR03: Addressing disparities in the Native American population in Oregon: The development of multi-disciplinary frameworks to study pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma in Native American communities

Abstract In Oregon, the incidence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is 2-times higher among Native American (NA) communities compared to the rest of the population. At Oregon Health & Science University, we have formed a multi-disciplinary team that includes clinicians, translational scientists, and population scientists. Additionally, we have initiated a process of establishing a collaboration with the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs, one of Oregon’s largest Tribal community. By fostering the connections of NA healthcare providers within OHSU’s Knight Cancer Institute and Brenden-Colson Center for Pancreatic Care, and with the established Community Outreach, Research, and Engagement (CORE) team, we aim to build trust with the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs to accomplish shared goals. To date, our team has made multiple visits to foster this connection. Recently, we conducted one-on-one interviews with Warm Springs community members to better understand the communities’ barriers to health information and health care. These interviews help focus our strategies to directly address barriers community members identify as most important to them. Interviews (<30 minutes long) were conducted and recorded with CORE trained personal at the Warm Springs Health fair and are now being evaluated. As part of our protocol, community members were reimbursed for their time and information with a twenty-dollar gift card from a local coffee shop. In addition to this interview, community members identified using an easel board outside our cancer center’s health booth to provide the most effective learning styles to help shape our future efforts in education and awareness. The data that was collected is also aiding in the development of culturally appropriate approaches and programs that are guided and shaped by NA communities through co-adapting and implementing our proven, Research in Oregon Communities’ Review System (ROCRS) for Tribes to receive, review, and co-design incoming research requests. Future projects look to complement this work by bringing two research studies (e.g., a diabetes early detection program and a NA genetic registry) through a collaborative research review, to determine feasibility, acceptability, and adoption, within the Warm Springs community. Citation Format: Jared Delaney, Grace McCarthy, Jackie Shannon, Rosalie Sears, Brett Sheppard, Jonathan Brody, Claymore Kills First. Addressing disparities in the Native American population in Oregon: The development of multi-disciplinary frameworks to study pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma in Native American communities [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference in Cancer Research: Pancreatic Cancer; 2023 Sep 27-30; Boston, Massachusetts. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(2 Suppl):Abstract nr PR03.

Fine-resolution mapping and assessment of artificial surfaces in the northern hemisphere permafrost environments

ABSTRACT Permafrost degradation has strong and long-lasting effects on anthropogenic land-use activities, contradicting the goal of sustainable development in polar and high-elevation regions. The artificial surface (AS) plays a central role in determining human-environment relationships in permafrost environments. Despite recent progress in monitoring land surfaces, attempts to map permafrost AS with satellite remote sensing have been limited. In this study, we propose an operational framework for fine-resolution mapping and assessment of permafrost AS across the entire Northern Hemisphere landmass. The proposed framework was designed to take advantage of prior knowledge obtained from existing global-scale land-cover products. As a result, a 10 m resolution permafrost AS map for 2016–2017 was created using a locally adaptive classification strategy. We found that the created map exhibited an overall accuracy of 91.7 ± 2.1% with minimum accuracies > 70%. We estimated that the total area of permafrost AS in the Northern Hemisphere was approximately 9,000 km2, most notably in the Russian Arctic. Future projections indicate that there will be over one-seventh of the permafrost AS area at high geohazard risk by the end of the twenty-first century. Our study provides new perspectives on the ‘permafrost-human-climate’ nexus, which can advance our understanding of the terrestrial system.

Puerulus settlement forecasting in a harvest strategy evaluation of the rock lobster fishery in South Australia

AbstractHarvest strategies are utilised in the management of fishery resources globally. Critical to their success is harvest strategy evaluation, whereby future performance is assessed through projection modelling. Using the observed relationship between a puerulus settlement index and model‐estimated recruitment, we evaluated a southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) harvest strategy in South Australia. Short‐to‐medium puerulus settlement recruitment forecasting was incorporated into future projections of catch, catch per unit effort, and percent unexploited egg production (%UEP) during 2019–2022. Observed values of indicators that closely aligned with projected outputs indicated that puerulus forecasting underpinned reliable evaluation of future fishery performance. A key objective of the harvest strategy was to increase egg production in the fishery, with a 20% unexploited egg production targeted by 2036. The target was reached under the proposed strategy, but was sensitive to recruitment, thereby highlighting the need to consider climate change impacts in forecasting scenarios.

Assessment of observed temperature trend patterns of Bhubaneswar city, India with special prominence on future projections using SimCLIM climate model and farmer’s perception

<p>Temperature dynamics is a widely recognized indicator of the global warming phenomenon. Changes in temperature patterns in Bhubaneswar, India, were assessed by examining the monthly minimum and maximum temperature data for 60 years (1956–2015) sourced from the Indian Meteorological Department. SimCLIM climate change risk assessment software was used for projecting the temperature regime for four different representative concentration pathways. Further, a survey of 112 farmers was conducted to understand their perceptions of temperature variations in and around Bhubaneswar city using a multi-stage sampling technique. Mann–Kendall statistics and linear regression were used to analyze the monthly temperature data and trend detection. The study reveals a change of +4%,-4.44%, and +1.09% in the mean monthly maximum, minimum, and annual temperature. The results of the future projection show a temperature change of 0.81°C for RCP 2.6, 1.12°C for RCP 4.5, 1.03°C for RCP 6.0, and 1.54°C for RCP 8.5 for the year 2050. Confirming the analysis findings, most of the interviewed farmers also perceived increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation in and around the city. The study outcome of temperature trend analysis and future projections will be helpful for farmers and policymakers in formulating adaptation strategies to climate change.</p>

Less Dryland Aridity During Pliocene Warmth

AbstractBecause of the potential similarities of the climate in the mid‐Pliocene to the projected conditions in the near future, studying mid‐Pliocene dryland aridity can advance our future projections. In this study, we used climate modeling to investigate mid‐Pliocene dryland aridity. Our results indicated that, in the mid‐Pliocene compared to the preindustrial period, the simulated dryland was substantially less arid in North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, Australia and Central Asia and more arid in North and South America and Southern Africa. The combined topography, vegetation and lakes (TVL) and atmospheric CO2 concentrations markedly modified this large‐scale dryland aridity, mainly by modulating precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, respectively. Moreover, the dryland aridity during the mid‐Pliocene varied under different orbital parameter intervals, mainly through precipitation changes. Our results show the important effect of vegetation on dryland aridity in a previous warm period and imply the potential effect of vegetation on future dryland aridity.

Characterization and future projection of marine heatwaves under climate change in the South China Sea

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are widely recognized as prolonged periods of significantly elevated sea surface temperatures, leading to substantial adverse impacts on marine ecosystems. However, a comprehensive understanding of their characteristics and potential changes under climate change in the South China Sea (SCS, 0 ∼ 25°N, 105 ∼ 125°E) remains insufficient. Here, utilizing the OISST V2.0 reanalysis dataset, our study first examines MHW characteristics and their trends in the SCS during the historical period (1982 ∼ 2014). Then, in accordance with the criteria established in this study, GFDL-ESM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, NESM3, EC-Earth3, and GFDL-CM4 are identified from the CMIP6 ensemble of 19 models for their enhanced simulations of historical MHW characteristics. Moreover, considering that the fixed and sliding threshold methods offer distinct perspectives on the future evolution of MHWs, we employ both approaches to evaluate MHW characteristics under projected scenarios for the future period (2015 ∼ 2100) and subsequently compare the disparities between the two methodologies. The outcomes obtained using these methods consistently indicate that MHWs in the SCS are anticipated to intensify and persist for longer durations in the future. Besides, addressing seasonal variability, the peak intensity of MHWs falls in May during both the historical period and the four projected future scenarios. This study provides valuable insights into the behavior of MHWs in the SCS within the context of climate change, underscoring the urgency of adopting effective mitigation strategies. Especially, the use of two definition methods provides a more comprehensive set of information for understanding the future changes of MHWs in the SCS.

Expanding the Distribution of Prosthechea jauana (Orchidaceae) in the Pantepui and Highlighting the Urgent Need for Conservation Strategies in the Region in Face of Climate Change.

Prosthechea jauana has been recognized as an orchid species endemic to the Venezuelan tepui. The first record of P. jauana in Brazil is presented here, also from a tepui in the Southern phytogeographical district of Pantepui in the Serra do Aracá, at the northern border of the Amazonas state. A detailed morphological description and images of the specimen are presented, as well as an updated distribution map, preliminary conservation status assessment, and taxonomic notes about the species. In addition, we provide species' distribution models for P. jauana based on current and future bioclimatic data. Future projections suggest that the geographic distribution of P. jauana will likely be severely affected, with ~79% of its suitable habitat being reduced by 2041-2060 and ~92% by 2061-2080. Prosthechea jauana could represent a flag species and an example of how climate change may affect the endemic Pantepui flora.

Changes in global DMS production driven by increased CO2 levels and its impact on radiative forcing

Our study highlights the importance of understanding the future changes in dimethyl-sulfide (DMS), the largest natural sulfur source, in the context of ocean acidification driven by elevated CO2 levels. We found a strong negative correlation (R2 = 0.89) between the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and sea-surface DMS concentrations based on global observational datasets, not adequately captured by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth System Models (ESMs). Using this relationship, we refined projections of future sea-surface DMS concentrations in CMIP6 ESMs. Our study reveals a decrease in global sea-surface DMS concentrations and the associated aerosol radiative forcing compared to ESMs’ results. These reductions represent ~9.5% and 11.1% of the radiative forcings resulting from aerosol radiation and cloud interactions in 2100 reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Thus, future climate projections should account for the climate implications of changes in DMS production due to ocean acidification.

The pan-plastome of Hemerocallis citrina reveals new insights into the genetic diversity and cultivation history of an economically important food plant

BackgroundHemerocallis citrina Baroni (Huang hua cai in Chinese) is a perennial herbaceous plant grown for its flower buds that are eaten fresh or dried and is known as the vegetarian three treasures. The nuclear genome of H. citrina has been reported, but the intraspecific variation of the plastome (plastid genome) has not yet been studied. Therefore, the panplastome of this species collected from diverse locations is reported here for the first time.ResultsIn this study, 65 H. citrina samples were resequenced, de novo assembled, and aligned with the published plastome of H. citrina to resolve the H. citrina panplastome. The sizes of the 65 newly assembled complete plastomes of H. citrina ranged from 156,048 bp to 156,263 bp, and the total GC content ranged from 37.31 to 37.34%. The structure of the complete plastomes showed a typical tetrameric structure, including a large single copy (LSC), a small single copy (SSC), and a pair of inverted repeat regions (IRA and IRB). Many nucleotide variants were identified between plastomes, among which the variants in the intergenic spacer region were the most abundant, with the highest number of variants concentrated in the LSC region. Based on the phylogenetic tree constructed using the ML method, population structure analysis, and principal component analysis (PCA), the panplastome data were subdivided into five genetic clusters. The C5 genetic cluster was mostly represented by samples from Qidong, Hunan Province, while samples from Shanxi and Shaanxi Provinces were classified into the C4 genetic cluster. The greatest genetic diversity was found in the C1 genetic cluster, and the greatest genetic distance between any two clusters was found between the C4 and C5 clusters.ConclusionThe resolution of the panplastome and the analysis of the population structure of H. citrina plastomes provide important data for future breeding projects and germplasm preservation.

Future Projections of Global Plastic Pollution: Scenario Analyses and Policy Implications

Plastic pollution has attracted the attention of the media, public, and government worldwide. Analysis of the inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between economic development and plastic pollution is crucial because economic growth is a critical driver of plastic pollution. In this study, for the first time, we (i) used the stochastic impacts of regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model to investigate the EKC relationship; (ii) performed a comprehensive analysis of the effects of sociodemographic factors on plastic pollution; and (iii) used a panel dataset of 128 countries for empirical analyses. The STIRPAT model was used to conduct scenario analyses to explore the impacts of sociodemographic driving forces on future plastic pollution by 2050 on a national (217 countries) and global scale. The empirical results confirmed the EKC relationship and revealed that changes in population structure and urbanization could substantially affect plastic pollution. Global plastic pollution was projected to reach 66.1 MT/y by 2050 under the business-as-usual scenario. Low-income countries and sub-Saharan Africa are projected to become major contributors to plastic pollution, leading to a global trend of increasing plastic pollution. These findings will help policymakers identify targets to effectively reduce future global plastic pollution.

Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population

Future projections of precipitation are uncertain, hampering effective climate adaptation strategies globally. Our understanding of changes across multiple climate model simulations under a warmer climate is limited by this lack of coherence across models. Here, we address this challenge introducing an approach that detects agreement in drier and wetter conditions by evaluating continuous 120-year time-series with trends, across 146 Global Climate Model (GCM) runs and two elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. We show the hotspots of future drier and wetter conditions, including regions already experiencing water scarcity or excess. These patterns are projected to impact a significant portion of the global population, with approximately 3 billion people (38% of the world’s current population) affected under an intermediate emissions scenario and 5 billion people (66% of the world population) under a high emissions scenario by the century’s end (or 35-61% using projections of future population). We undertake a country- and state-level analysis quantifying the population exposed to significant changes in precipitation regimes, offering a robust framework for assessing multiple climate projections.