Future Permafrost Research Articles

Surface Warming Constraint Projects Less Permafrost Thawing in High Mountain Asia

AbstractReliable projections of permafrost change are crucial for estimating permafrost carbon loss. However, potential model biases in surface air temperature may yield unrealistic projections of future permafrost area. Here, by leveraging the emergent relationship between equilibrium climate sensitivity and projected changes in mean annual air temperature over High Mountain Asia (HMA), we mitigate the overestimated local warming rates and excessive thawing of permafrost associated with the “hot model” problem in models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6. After constraint, permafrost area over HMA will reduce by 37%, 64% and 99% in 2081–2100 relative to present‐day under the SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively. In contrast, the unconstrained projections tend to overestimate the loss of permafrost area by nearly 10% under the low and mid‐emission scenarios due to the overestimation of local warming rates. These findings are crucial for policymaking and provide valuable insights into global permafrost projection.

Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw

Unabated 21st-century climate change will accelerate Arctic-Subarctic permafrost thaw which can intensify microbial degradation of carbon-rich soils, methane emissions, and global warming. The impact of permafrost thaw on future Arctic-Subarctic wildfires and the associated release of greenhouse gases and aerosols is less well understood. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of the effect of future permafrost thaw on land surface processes in the Arctic-Subarctic region using the CESM2 large ensemble forced by the SSP3-7.0 greenhouse gas emission scenario. Analyzing 50 greenhouse warming simulations, which capture the coupling between permafrost, hydrology, and atmosphere, we find that projected rapid permafrost thaw leads to massive soil drying, surface warming, and reduction of relative humidity over the Arctic-Subarctic region. These combined processes lead to nonlinear late-21st-century regime shifts in the coupled soil-hydrology system and rapid intensification of wildfires in western Siberia and Canada.

Ecological restoration is crucial in mitigating carbon loss caused by permafrost thawing on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Climate change leads to permafrost thawing, accelerating carbon emissions increases, challenges the goal of climate change mitigation. However, it remains unknown whether implementing ecological restoration projects in Alpine areas can offset the adverse effects of permafrost thawing locally. Here we took the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau as an example to explore this issue based on the improved Biome-BGCMuSo model. We found future climate change-induced permafrost thawing will decrease carbon sink. Projects’ carbon sink enhancement could fully counteract the permafrost thawing-induced carbon loss. Additionally, future warmer and wetter climates will enlarge the suitable area for restoration. If these areas are taken into account, carbon sink attributable to Projects will further increase. These results indicate that ERPs have the potential to combat future permafrost thawing-induced carbon loss, and their contribution will be further amplified by future climate change.

Spatiotemporal characteristics and variability in the thermal state of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

AbstractPermafrost degradation on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) has significant impacts on climate, hydrology, and engineering and environmental systems. To understand the temporal and spatial characteristics of permafrost on the QTP, we quantified the variation in active layer thickness (ALT), permafrost thermal state, and future permafrost change under different scenarios using observational data, reanalysis data, and the numerical permafrost model. Generally, ALT ranged from 0.5 to 6.0 m with an average of 2.39 m, and mean annual ground temperature (at a depth of zero annual amplitude for ground temperature) mainly ranged between 0 and −3°C with an average of −0.85°C. The soil temperatures in different layers based on the ERA5‐Land data revealed even stronger increasing trends, for example, 0.245, 0.245, 0.244, and 0.238°C/decade at depths of 0–7, 7–28, 28–100, and 100–289 cm from 1980 to 2021, compared to those during the period from 1960 to 2021, which were 0.153, 0.156, 0.155, and 0.149°C/decade, respectively. The average warming trends in annual mean soil temperature were 0.153 and 0.243°C/decade from 1960 to 2021 and 1980 to 2021, respectively. The average rate of thickening of the ALT among the 10 active layer observation sites was 2.84 cm/year. There was a significant warming trend in ground temperature above ~15 m with warming of 0.063 to 0.120, 0.026 to 0.182, 0.101 to 0.314, and 0.189 to 0.303°C/decade at the QTB01, QTB06, QTB08, and XDTGT sites, respectively, and yearly minimum ground temperatures exhibited stronger warming trends than maximum ground temperatures. In addition, the simulation revealed significant increases in ground temperature at the Xidatan (XDT) and Tanggula (TGL) sites under both historical and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, but the increases in ground temperature were significantly greater at TGL than XDT. These findings provide important information for understanding the variability in permafrost degradation processes and improving simulations of permafrost change under climate change on the QTP.

Permafrost Degradation Risk Evaluation in the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Under Climate Change Based on Machine Learning Models

AbstractPermafrost in the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP) is sensitive to climate warming, but the associated degradation risk still lacks accurate evaluation. To address this issue, machine learning (ML) models are established to simulate the mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT), and climate data from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are prepared for evaluation in the future period. Based on the projections, permafrost is expected to remain relatively stable under the SSP1‐2.6 scenario, and large‐scale permafrost degradation will occur after the 2050s, resulting in area losses of 30.15% (SSP2‐4.5), 58.96% (SSP3‐7.0), and 65.97% (SSP5‐8.5) in the 2090s relative to the modeling period (2006–2018). The average permafrost MAGT (ALT) is predicted to increase by 0.50°C (59 cm), 0.67°C (89 cm), and 0.79°C (97 cm) in the 2090s with respect to the modeling period under the SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively. Permafrost in the Qilian Mountains and Three Rivers Source region are fragile and vulnerable to degradation. In the future period, permafrost on the sunny slopes is more prone to degradation and the sunny‐shade slope effect of permafrost distribution will be further enhanced under climate warming. The lower limit of permafrost distribution is expected to rise by about 100 m in the 2050s under the SSP2‐4.5 scenario. These findings can provide valuable insights about future permafrost changes in the QTP.

Emerging investigator series: preferential adsorption and coprecipitation of permafrost organic matter with poorly crystalline iron minerals.

Future permafrost thaw will likely lead to substantial release of greenhouse gases due to thawing of previously unavailable organic carbon (OC). Accurate predictions of this release are limited by poor knowledge of the bioavailability of mobilized OC during thaw. Organic carbon bioavailability decreases due to adsorption to, or coprecipitation with, poorly crystalline ferric iron (Fe(III)) (oxyhydr)oxide minerals but the maximum binding extent and binding selectivity of permafrost OC to these minerals is unknown. We therefore utilized water-extractable organic matter (WEOM) from soils across a permafrost thaw gradient to quantify adsorption and coprecipitation processes with poorly crystalline Fe(III) (oxyhydr)oxides. We found that the maximum adsorption capacity of WEOM from intact and partly thawed permafrost soils was similar (204 and 226 mg C g-1 ferrihydrite, respectively) but decreased to 81 mg C g-1 ferrihydrite for WEOM from the fully thawed site. In comparison, coprecipitation of WEOM from intact and partly thawed soils with Fe immobilized up to 925 and 1532 mg C g-1 Fe respectively due to formation of precipitated Fe(III)-OC phases. Analysis of the OC composition before and after adsorption/coprecipitation revealed that high molecular weight, oxygen-rich, carboxylic- and aromatic-rich OC was preferentially bound to Fe(III) minerals relative to low molecular weight, aliphatic-rich compounds which may be more bioavailable. This selective binding effect was stronger after adsorption than coprecipitation. Our results suggest that OC binding by Fe(III) (oxyhydr)oxides sharply decreases under fully thawed conditions and that small, aliphatic OC molecules that may be readily bioavailable are less protected across all thaw stages.

Biennial analysis of probable permafrost distribution for Kullu district, North‐west Himalaya using Landsat 8 satellite data

AbstractClimate change and increased anthropogenic activity affect permafrost distribution, threatening ecosystem stability, water resources, and greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we present updated probable permafrost maps at 30 m resolution for Kullu district of Himachal Pradesh derived from the predicted mean annual air temperature (MAAT) (2013 to 2020) based on Landsat 8 land surface temperature (LST). We also analysed the mean annual snow cover extent of the study area for this time period. Our probable permafrost distribution map shows the areas falling under permafrost regions in snow‐covered areas; permafrost regions in non‐snow‐covered areas; non permafrost regions along with glacierised regions. The temporal variation of permafrost over 7 years from 2013 to 2020 shows that permafrost distribution follows a cyclic variation ranging between 4.42% and 7.51% of the total area of the district. The permafrost maps were validated with the presence of rock glaciers as seen on high resolution satellite images and the ground photographs. The maps display the expected spatial pattern of near‐surface air temperatures that match with the known permafrost boundary. The findings of this study provide more precise information on permafrost distribution and essential data for future permafrost research in Kullu district.

Tundra fire increases the likelihood of methane hotspot formation in the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, USA

Rapid warming in Arctic tundra may lead to drier soils in summer and greater lightning ignition rates, likely culminating in enhanced wildfire risk. Increased wildfire frequency and intensity leads to greater conversion of permafrost carbon to greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we quantify the effect of recent tundra fires on the creation of methane (CH4) emission hotspots, a fingerprint of the permafrost carbon feedback. We utilized high-resolution (∼25 m2 pixels) and broad coverage (1780 km2) airborne imaging spectroscopy and maps of historical wildfire-burned areas to determine whether CH4 hotspots were more likely in areas burned within the last 50 years in the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, USA. Our observations provide a unique observational constraint on CH4 dynamics, allowing us to map CH4 hotspots in relation to individual burn events, burn scar perimeters, and proximity to water. We find that CH4 hotspots are roughly 29% more likely on average in tundra that burned within the last 50 years compared to unburned areas and that this effect is nearly tripled along burn scar perimeters that are delineated by surface water features. Our results indicate that the changes following tundra fire favor the complex environmental conditions needed to generate CH4 emission hotspots. We conclude that enhanced CH4 emissions following tundra fire represent a positive feedback that will accelerate climate warming, tundra fire occurrence, and future permafrost carbon loss to the atmosphere.

Highly restricted near‐surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period

Accurate understanding of permafrost dynamics is critical for evaluating and mitigating impacts that may arise as permafrost degrades in the future; however, existing projections have large uncertainties. Studies of how permafrost responded historically during Earth's past warm periods are helpful in exploring potential future permafrost behavior and to evaluate the uncertainty of future permafrost change projections. Here, we combine a surface frost index model with outputs from the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project to simulate the near-surface (~3 to 4 m depth) permafrost state in the Northern Hemisphere during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, ~3.264 to 3.025 Ma). This period shares similarities with the projected future climate. Constrained by proxy-based surface air temperature records, our simulations demonstrate that near-surface permafrost was highly spatially restricted during the mPWP and was 93 ± 3% smaller than the preindustrial extent. Near-surface permafrost was present only in the eastern Siberian uplands, Canadian high Arctic Archipelago, and northernmost Greenland. The simulations are similar to near-surface permafrost changes projected for the end of this century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and provide a perspective on the potential permafrost behavior that may be expected in a warmer world.

High potential for pile-bearing capacity loss and ground subsidence over permafrost regions across the Northern Hemisphere

Rapid atmospheric warming changes the thermal conditions of permafrost over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), including ground temperature warming and ground ice thawing. This warming and thawing of ice-rich permafrost damages existing infrastructure and poses a threat to sustainable development. Bearing capacity (BC) loss and ground subsidence (GS) due to permafrost thawing are two major risks to the infrastructure and key indexes for risk assessment. However, current information on the BC and GS is too coarse, restricted to the Arctic, and scarce for future periods. The aim of this study was to address these gaps by presenting spatial data on the BC and GS for current and future periods across the NH at a resolution of 1 km. A machine learning-based approach was developed to simulate permafrost thermal dynamics under four climate scenarios (SSPs 1–2.6, 2–4.5, 3–7.0, and 5–8.5). The associated changes in the BC and GS were estimated based on changes in the permafrost temperature at or near the depth of zero annual amplitude (MAGT) and active-layer thickness (ALT). The results indicate a continuous increase in MAGT and ALT by 2.3 °C (SSPs1–2.6) to 7.6 °C (SSPs5–8.5) and 16.0 cm (SSPs1–2.6) to 51.0 cm (SSPs5–8.5), respectively, at the end of the 21ts century. This permafrost degradation will lead to a high potential BC loss of 37.8% (SSPs1–2.6) to 40.2% (SSPs5–8.5) on average over 2041–2060, and up to 60.5% (SSPs1–2.6) to 92.2% (SSPs5–8.5) in 2081–2100. The produced average GS is approximately 1.0 cm in 2021–2040, and further up to 1.5 cm (SSPs1–2.6) to 4.7 cm (SSPs5–8.5) in 2081–2100, with notable variations across the permafrost region. These forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future permafrost changes and associated risks and costs with climate warming.

Elevation dependency of future degradation of permafrost over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Global warming has caused widespread permafrost degradation, but the geographic regularity of permafrost degradation is unknown. Here, we investigated the three-dimensional features of future permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our findings show that permafrost degradation under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) has obvious three-dimensional characteristics. In comparison to latitude and aridity, permafrost degradation is closely related to elevation, i.e. it slows with elevation, a phenomenon known as elevation-dependent degradation. The pattern of elevation-dependent degradation is consistent across four subzones and is strongly linked to thermal conditions that vary with elevation. Under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, remarkable elevation-dependent warming (EDW) is observed at 3600–4900 m, but changes in mean annual ground temperature of permafrost and EDW as altitude rises are anti-phase. Under any SSP, the magnitude of mean annual air temperature along altitude belts determines the degree of permafrost degradation (R 2 > 0.90). This research provides new insight on the evolution of permafrost.

Hydrological, meteorological, and watershed controls on the water balance of thermokarst lakes between Inuvik and Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, Canada

Abstract. Thermokarst lake water balances are becoming increasingly vulnerable to change in the Arctic as air temperature increases and precipitation patterns shift. In the tundra uplands east of the Mackenzie Delta in the Northwest Territories, Canada, previous research has found that lakes responded non-uniformly to year-to-year changes in precipitation, suggesting that lake and watershed properties mediate the response of lakes to climate change. To investigate how lake and watershed properties and meteorological conditions influence the water balance of thermokarst lakes in this region, we sampled 25 lakes for isotope analysis five times in 2018, beginning before snowmelt on 1 May and sampling throughout the remainder of the ice-free season. Water isotope data were used to calculate the average isotope composition of lake source water (δI) and the ratio of evaporation to inflow (E/I). We identified four distinct water balance phases as lakes responded to seasonal shifts in meteorological conditions and hydrological processes. During the freshet phase from 1 May to 15 June, the median E/I ratio of lakes decreased from 0.20 to 0.13 in response to freshet runoff and limited evaporation due to lake ice presence that persisted for the duration of this phase. During the following warm, dry, and ice-free period from 15 June to 26 July, designated the evaporation phase, the median E/I ratio increased to 0.19. During the brief soil wetting phase, E/I ratios did not respond to rainfall between 26 July and 2 August, likely because watershed soils absorbed most of the precipitation which resulted in minimal runoff to lakes. The median E/I ratio decreased to 0.11 after a cool and rainy August, identified as the recharge phase. Throughout the sampling period, δI remained relatively stable and most lakes contained a greater amount of rainfall-sourced water than snow-sourced water, even after the freshet phase, due to snowmelt bypass. The range of average E/I ratios that we observed at lakes (0.00–0.43) was relatively narrow and low compared with thermokarst lakes in other regions, likely owing to the large ratio of watershed area to lake area (WA/LA), efficient preferential flow pathways for runoff, and a shorter ice-free season. Lakes with smaller WA/LA tended to have higher E/I ratios (R2 = 0.74). An empirical relationship between WA/LA and E/I was derived and used to predict the average E/I ratio of 7340 lakes in the region, which identified that these lakes are not vulnerable to desiccation, given that E/I ratios were < 0.33. If future permafrost thaw and warming cause less runoff to flow into lakes, we expect that lakes with a smaller WA/LA will be more influenced by increasing evaporation, while lakes with a larger WA/LA will be more resistant to lake-level drawdown. However under wetter conditions, lakes with a larger WA/LA will likely experience a greater increases in lake level and could be more susceptible to rapid drainage.

Facing the challenge of permafrost thaw in Nunavik communities: innovative integrated methodology, lessons learnt, and recommendations to stakeholders

To support climate change adaptation in the communities of Nunavik, an innovative multitechnique approach to map permafrost conditions and assess risks of geohazards at the community-scale level was applied. Four maps were produced for each community: (1) a surficial geology map, (2) a map of permafrost conditions based on ground-ice content and depth to bedrock, (3) a map of potential for construction, and (4) a geohazard risk assessment map. Local ground temperature data from thermistor cables were used to calibrate 1D numerical models to estimate future permafrost temperature changes and probable rates of degradation in different environmental settings within the communities and under different climate change scenarios for the 2019–2100 period. Throughout this project, abundant consultations were held in communities and with stakeholders to better understand their concerns and to provide pragmatic recommendations for improving construction methods and land-use planning to face the challenges of permafrost thaw. Specific recommendations were made to the higher levels of government for improving construction practices. Inuit aspirations, culture, and leadership remain essential in integrating permafrost geotechnical knowledge in planning a safe future for the communities.

Dynamics of the freeze–thaw front of active layer on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The seasonal dynamics of the freeze–thaw front during the freezing and thawing period strongly affect the hydrothermal processes in the active layer and the water-energy exchange processes between land and the atmosphere. Therefore, characterizing variation in the freeze–thaw front and its effect on the water and heat transfer mechanisms in the soil layer is important for enhancing our understanding of change in permafrost. In this study, we used data from field observations to analyze the freeze–thaw front dynamics during the freezing and thawing period in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The zero-curtain duration time was longer during the freezing period than during the thawing period at all sites. Changes in the freeze–thaw front were characterized by three distinct stages: the downward migration of the thaw front, zero curtain process at the bottom of the active layer, and the bidirectional freezing period. In addition, changes in the thaw front and soil moisture thaw period were consistent, but the freezing period of moisture showed large hysteresis compared with ground temperature. There was a power function and exponential relationship between the negative ground temperature and the unfrozen water content during warming and cooling processes, respectively. Linear and power relationships were observed between the net radiation accumulation and thawing front, and there was a power function relationship between the thawing front and soil heat flux. There was a quadratic polynomial relationship between the thawing front and thawing degree-days. The fitted relationships can better represent the dynamics of the freeze–thaw front during the freezing and thawing period. These findings aid our understanding of the hydrothermal characteristics of the active layers and will improve future permafrost simulation models.

Permafrost degradation and nitrogen cycling in Arctic rivers: insights from stable nitrogen isotope studies

Abstract. Across the Arctic, vast areas of permafrost are being degraded by climate change, which has the potential to release substantial quantities of nutrients, including nitrogen into large Arctic rivers. These rivers heavily influence the biogeochemistry of the Arctic Ocean, so it is important to understand the potential changes to rivers from permafrost degradation. This study utilized dissolved nitrogen species (nitrate and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON)) along with nitrogen isotope values (δ15N-NO3- and δ15N-DON) of samples collected from permafrost sites in the Kolyma River and the six largest Arctic rivers. Large inputs of DON and nitrate with a unique isotopically heavy δ15N signature were documented in the Kolyma, suggesting the occurrence of denitrification and highly invigorated nitrogen cycling in the Yedoma permafrost thaw zones along the Kolyma. We show evidence for permafrost-derived DON being recycled to nitrate as it passes through the river, transferring the high 15N signature to nitrate. However, the potential to observe these thaw signals at the mouths of rivers depends on the spatial scale of thaw sites, permafrost degradation, and recycling mechanisms. In contrast with the Kolyma, with near 100 % continuous permafrost extent, the Ob River, draining large areas of discontinuous and sporadic permafrost, shows large seasonal changes in both nitrate and DON isotopic signatures. During winter months, water percolating through peat soils records isotopically heavy denitrification signals in contrast with the lighter summer values when surface flow dominates. This early year denitrification signal was present to a degree in the Kolyma, but the ability to relate seasonal nitrogen signals across Arctic Rivers to permafrost degradation could not be shown with this study. Other large rivers in the Arctic show different seasonal nitrogen trends. Based on nitrogen isotope values, the vast majority of nitrogen fluxes in the Arctic rivers is from fresh DON sourced from surface runoff through organic-rich topsoil and not from permafrost degradation. However, with future permafrost thaw, other Arctic rivers may begin to show nitrogen trends similar to the Ob. Our study demonstrates that nitrogen inputs from permafrost thaw can be identified through nitrogen isotopes, but only on small spatial scales. Overall, nitrogen isotopes show potential for revealing integrated catchment wide nitrogen cycling processes.

Changes in the ground surface temperature in permafrost regions along the Qinghai–Tibet engineering corridor from 1900 to 2014: A modified assessment of CMIP6

Numerous studies were published in the last two decades to evaluate and project the permafrost changes in its thermal state, mainly based on the soil temperature datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), and discuss the impacts of permafrost changes on regional hydrological, ecological and climatic systems and even carbon cycles. However, limited monitored soil temperature data are available to validate the CMIP outputs, resulting in the over-projection of future permafrost changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5. Moreover, future permafrost changes in CMIP6, particularly over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), where permafrost covers more than 40% of its territory, are still unknown. To address this gap, we evaluated and calibrated the monthly ground surface temperature (GST; 5 cm below the ground surface), which was often used as the upper boundary to simulate and project permafrost changes derived from 19 CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) against in situ measurements over the QTP. We generated the monthly GST series from 1900 to 2014 for five sites based on the linear calibration models and validated them through the three other sites using the same calibration methods. Results showed that all of the ESMs could capture the dynamics of in situ GST with high correlations (r > 0.90). However, large errors were detected with a broad range of centred root-mean-square errors (1.14–4.98 °C). The Top 5 model ensembles (MME5) performed better than most individual ESMs and averaged multi-model ensembles (MME19). The calibrated GST performed better than the GST obtained from MME5. Both annual and seasonal GSTs exhibited warming trends with an average annual rate of 0.04 °C per decade in the annual GST. The average seasonal warming rate was highest in winter and spring and lowest in summer. This reconstructed GST data series could be used to simulate the long-term permafrost temperature over the QTP.

High‐resolution stable isotopic signals of ground ice indicate freeze–thaw history in permafrost on the northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

AbstractUnderstanding the mechanism of formation of ground ice and the freeze–thaw history of permafrost is essential when assessing the future of permafrost in a changing climate. High‐resolution ground ice records, integrating stable isotopes (δ18O, d‐excess, and δ13C), hydrochemistry (EC and pH) data, and cryostratigraphy at a depth of 4.8 m from two contrasting permafrost profiles (P‐1, P‐2) in the Source Area of the Yellow River (SAYR) on the northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), were investigated. The results suggested significant depth variations in the stable isotopes and hydrochemistry of the ground ice. The near‐surface ground ice (NSGI) and deep‐layer ground ice (DLGI) were characterized in terms of variations in stable isotopes and known modern active layer data. By synthesizing the measured δ18O and the modeled isotopic fractionation processes during freezing, we suggest that both the NSGI and DLGI in P‐1 were mainly formed by the segregation mechanism during permafrost aggradation. The NSGI in P‐2, however, exhibited quick freezing origins compared with the predominant ice segregation processes for the DLGI. By combining the evolution of various stable isotopes and hydrochemistry with 14C age data, four historical freeze–thaw stages were identified. Specifically, one thawing–refreezing stage (2.8–2.2 m), one freezing aggradation stage (2.2–1.6 m), and two permafrost aggradation–degradation cycle stages (4.8–2.8 m; 1.6–0.7 m) were differentiated, which emphasize the importance of climate‐induced freeze–thaw transitions and differing permafrost aggradation processes on ground ice formation and resultant isotope hydrochemical behaviors. This study is the first to use high‐resolution data in ground ice to interpret the freeze–thaw history of permafrost in the SAYR. These findings are important for further understanding of past permafrost evolution and projected future permafrost degradation trends on the QTP, and provide an alternative method to explore permafrost history.

Mismatch of N release from the permafrost and vegetative uptake opens pathways of increasing nitrous oxide emissions in the high Arctic.

Biogeochemical cycling in permafrost-affected ecosystems remains associated with large uncertainties, which could impact the Earth's greenhouse gas budget and future climate policies. In particular, increased nutrient availability following permafrost thaw could perturb the greenhouse gas exchange in these systems, an effect largely unexplored until now. Here, we enhance the terrestrial ecosystem model QUINCY (QUantifying Interactions between terrestrial Nutrient CYcles and the climate system), which simulates fully coupled carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles in vegetation and soil, with processes relevant in high latitudes (e.g., soil freezing and snow dynamics). In combination with site-level and satellite-based observations, we use the model to investigate impacts of increased nutrient availability from permafrost thawing in comparison to other climate-induced effects and CO2 fertilization over 1960 to 2018 across the high Arctic. Our simulations show that enhanced availability of nutrients following permafrost thaw account for less than 15% of the total Gross primary productivity increase over the time period, despite simulated N limitation over the high Arctic scale. As an explanation for this weak fertilization effect, observational and model data indicate a mismatch between the timing of peak vegetative growth (week 26-27 of the year, corresponding to the beginning of July) and peak thaw depth (week 32-35, mid-to-late August), resulting in incomplete plant use of nutrients near the permafrost table. The resulting increasing N availability approaching the permafrost table enhances N loss pathways, which leads to rising nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions in our model. Site-level emission trends of 2mg N m-2 year-1 on average over the historical time period could therefore predict an emerging increasing source of N2 O emissions following future permafrost thaw in the high Arctic.

Pollen-Based Holocene Thawing-History of Permafrost in Northern Asia and Its Potential Impacts on Climate Change

As the recent permafrost thawing of northern Asia proceeds due to anthropogenic climate change, precise and detailed palaeoecological records from past warm periods are essential to anticipate the extent of future permafrost variations. Here, based on the modern relationship between permafrost and vegetation (represented by pollen assemblages), we trained a Random Forest model using pollen and permafrost data and verified its reliability to reconstruct the history of permafrost in northern Asia during the Holocene. An early Holocene (12–8 cal ka BP) strong thawing trend, a middle-to-late Holocene (8–2 cal ka BP) relatively slow thawing trend, and a late Holocene freezing trend of permafrost in northern Asia are consistent with climatic proxies such as summer solar radiation and Northern Hemisphere temperature. The extensive distribution of permafrost in northern Asia inhibited the spread of evergreen coniferous trees during the early Holocene warming and might have decelerated the enhancement of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) by altering hydrological processes and albedo. Based on these findings, we suggest that studies of the EASM should consider more the state of permafrost and vegetation in northern Asia, which are often overlooked and may have a profound impact on climate change in this region.

Identifying Barriers to Estimating Carbon Release From Interacting Feedbacks in a Warming Arctic

The northern permafrost region holds almost half of the world's soil carbon in just 15% of global terrestrial surface area. Between 2007 and 2016, permafrost warmed by an average of 0.29°C, with observations indicating that frozen ground in the more southerly, discontinuous permafrost zone is already thawing. Despite this, our understanding of potential carbon release from this region remains not only uncertain, but incomplete. SROCC highlights that global-scale models represent carbon loss from permafrost only through gradual, top-down thaw. This excludes “pulse” disturbances – namely abrupt thaw, in which frozen ground with high ice content thaws, resulting in subsidence and comparatively rapid ongoing thaw, and fire – both of which are critically important to projecting future permafrost carbon feedbacks. Substantial uncertainty remains around the response of these disturbances to ongoing warming, although both are projected to affect an increasing area of the northern permafrost region. This is of particular concern as recent evidence indicates that pulse disturbances may, in some cases, respond nonlinearly to warming. Even less well understood are the interactions between processes driving loss of permafrost carbon. Fire not only drives direct carbon loss, but can accelerate gradual and abrupt permafrost thaw. However, this important interplay is rarely addressed in the scientific literature. Here, we identify barriers to estimating the magnitude of future emissions from pulse disturbances across the northern permafrost region, including those resulting from interactions between disturbances. We draw on recent advances to prioritize said barriers and suggest avenues for the polar research community to address these.