High potential for pile-bearing capacity loss and ground subsidence over permafrost regions across the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract

Rapid atmospheric warming changes the thermal conditions of permafrost over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), including ground temperature warming and ground ice thawing. This warming and thawing of ice-rich permafrost damages existing infrastructure and poses a threat to sustainable development. Bearing capacity (BC) loss and ground subsidence (GS) due to permafrost thawing are two major risks to the infrastructure and key indexes for risk assessment. However, current information on the BC and GS is too coarse, restricted to the Arctic, and scarce for future periods. The aim of this study was to address these gaps by presenting spatial data on the BC and GS for current and future periods across the NH at a resolution of 1 km. A machine learning-based approach was developed to simulate permafrost thermal dynamics under four climate scenarios (SSPs 1–2.6, 2–4.5, 3–7.0, and 5–8.5). The associated changes in the BC and GS were estimated based on changes in the permafrost temperature at or near the depth of zero annual amplitude (MAGT) and active-layer thickness (ALT). The results indicate a continuous increase in MAGT and ALT by 2.3 °C (SSPs1–2.6) to 7.6 °C (SSPs5–8.5) and 16.0 cm (SSPs1–2.6) to 51.0 cm (SSPs5–8.5), respectively, at the end of the 21ts century. This permafrost degradation will lead to a high potential BC loss of 37.8% (SSPs1–2.6) to 40.2% (SSPs5–8.5) on average over 2041–2060, and up to 60.5% (SSPs1–2.6) to 92.2% (SSPs5–8.5) in 2081–2100. The produced average GS is approximately 1.0 cm in 2021–2040, and further up to 1.5 cm (SSPs1–2.6) to 4.7 cm (SSPs5–8.5) in 2081–2100, with notable variations across the permafrost region. These forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future permafrost changes and associated risks and costs with climate warming.