Future Permafrost Research Articles

Cyanobacterial weathering in warming periglacial sediments: Implications for nutrient cycling and potential biosignatures

AbstractThe cryosphere hosts a widespread microbial community, yet microbial influences on silicate weathering have been historically neglected in cold‐arid deserts. Here we investigate bioweathering by a cold‐tolerant cyanobacteria (Leptolyngbya glacialis) via laboratory experiments using glaciofluvial drift sediments at 12°C, analogous to predicted future permafrost surface temperatures. Our results show threefold enhanced Si weathering rates in pre‐weathered, mixed‐lithology Antarctic biotic reactors compared to abiotic controls, indicating the significant influence of microbial life on weathering. Although biotic and abiotic weathering rates are similar in Icelandic sediments, neo‐formed clay and Fe‐(oxy)hydroxide minerals observed in association with biofilms in biotic reactors are common on Icelandic mafic minerals, similar to features observed in unprocessed Antarctic drifts. This suggests that microbes enhance weathering in systems where they must scavenge for nutrients that are not easily liberated via abiotic pathways; potential biosignatures may form in nutrient‐rich systems as well. In both sediment types we also observed up to fourfold higher bicarbonate concentrations in biotic reactors relative to abiotic reactors, indicating that, as warming occurs, psychrotolerant biota will enhance bicarbonate flux to the oceans, thus stimulating carbonate deposition and providing a negative feedback to increasing atmospheric CO2.

Modelling Permafrost Distribution in Western Himalaya Using Remote Sensing and Field Observations

The presence and extent of permafrost in the Himalaya, which is a vital component of the cryosphere, remains severely under-researched with its future climatic-driven trajectory only partly understood and the future consequences on high-altitude ecosystem tentatively sketched out. Previous studies and available permafrost maps for the Himalaya relied primarily upon the modelled meteorological inputs to further model the likelihood of permafrost. Here, as a maiden attempt, we have quantified the distribution of permafrost at 30 m grid-resolution in the Western Himalaya using observations from multisource satellite datasets for estimating input parameters, namely temperature, potential incoming solar radiation (PISR), slope, aspect and land use, and cover. The results have been compared to previous studies and have been validated through field investigations and geomorphological proxies associated with permafrost presence. A large part of the study area is barren land (~69%) due to its extremely resistive climate condition with ~62% of the total area having a mean annual air temperature of (MAAT) <1 °C. There is a high inter-annual variability indicated by varying standard deviation (1–3 °C) associated with MAAT with low standard deviation in southern part of the study area indicating low variations in areas with high temperatures and vice-versa. The majority of the study area is northerly (~36%) and southerly (~38%) oriented, receiving PISR between 1 and 2.5 MW/m2. The analysis of permafrost distribution using biennial mean air temperature (BMAT) for 2002-04 to 2018-20 suggests that the ~25% of the total study area has continuous permafrost, ~35% has discontinuous permafrost, ~1.5% has sporadic permafrost, and ~39% has no permafrost presence. The temporal analysis of permafrost distribution indicates a significant decrease in the permafrost cover in general and discontinuous permafrost in particular, from 2002-04 to 2018-20, with a loss of around 3% for the total area (~8340.48 km2). The present study will serve as an analogue for future permafrost studies to help understand the permafrost dynamics associated with the effects of the recent abrupt rise in temperature and change in precipitation pattern in the region.

Adaptive capacity to manage permafrost degradation in Northwest Greenland

ABSTRACT Global warming has reduced the extent of permafrost, increased permafrost temperatures, and deepened the active layer across the Arctic. Permafrost degradation has detrimental effects on infrastructure and negative impacts on ecosystem services for many Arctic communities. This study examines the adaptive capacity for managing permafrost degradation in Northwest Greenland. The methods are based on questionnaire and interview data from fieldwork, frozen ground temperature records and published data forecasting the deepening of the active layer. Results illustrate the impact of permafrost degradation on the physical environment, hunting and harvesting, housing, and the economy in Northwest Greenland. House owners are mending damage caused by ground movement, and local institutions are concerned with the maintenance of roads and other public infrastructure impacted by permafrost. The scientific knowledge needed to inform decision-making is useful for identifying overall changes, but existing data sources are scarce, and more detailed permafrost maps are needed for long-term town planning. The study concludes that many individuals and institutions engage in autonomous adaptation on an ad hoc basis, rather than pursuing an overall strategy to increase the adaptive capacity in advance of future permafrost degradation in Northwest Greenland.

Deep roots of Carex aquatilis have greater ammonium uptake capacity than shallow roots in peatlands following permafrost thaw

Climate warming in northern ecosystems is triggering widespread permafrost thaw, during which deep soil nutrients, such as nitrogen, could become available for biological uptake. Permafrost thaw shift frozen organic matter to a saturated state, which could impede nutrient uptake. We assessed whether soil nitrogen can be accessed by the deep roots of vascular plants in thermokarst bogs, potentially allowing for increases in primary productivity. We conducted an ammonium uptake experiment on Carex aquatilis Wahlenb. roots excavated from thermokarst bogs in interior Alaska. Ammonium uptake capacity was compared between deep and shallow roots. We also quantified differences in root ammonium uptake capacity and plant size characteristics (plant aboveground and belowground biomass, maximum shoot height, and maximum root length) between the actively-thawing margin and the centre of each thermokarst bog as a proxy for time-following-thaw. Deep roots had greater ammonium uptake capacity than shallow roots, while rooting depth, but not belowground biomass, was positively correlated with aboveground biomass. Although there were no differences in aboveground biomass between the margin and centre, our findings suggest that plants can benefit from investing in the acquisition of resources near the vertical thaw front. Our results suggest that deep roots of C. aquatilis can contribute to plant nitrogen uptake and are therefore able to tolerate anoxic conditions in saturated thermokarst bogs. This work furthers our understanding of how subarctic and wetland plants respond to warming and how enhanced plant biomass production might help offset ecosystem carbon release with future permafrost thaw.

Retrospective Analysis of Permafrost Landscape Evolution in Yakutia during the Holocene Warm Intervals

The observed global warming has significant impacts on permafrost. Permafrost changes modify landscapes and cause damage to infrastructure. The main purpose of this study was to estimate permafrost temperatures and active-layer thicknesses during the Holocene intervals with significantly warmer-than-present climates—the Atlantic (5500 years BP), Subboreal (3500 years BP) and Subatlantic (1000 years BP) optimums. Estimates were obtained using the ready-to-use models derived by G.M. Feldman, as well as mathematical modeling taking account of the paleogeography of the Holocene warm intervals. The data obtained were analyzed to reveal the regional patterns of warming impacts on different permafrost landscapes. The study results will be useful in predicting future permafrost changes in response to climate warming.

Modeling Present and Future Permafrost Distribution at the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

AbstractPermafrost, a key component of Arctic ecosystems, is currently affected by climate warming and anticipated to undergo further significant changes in this century. The most pronounced changes are expected to occur in the transition zone between the discontinuous and continuous types of permafrost. We apply a transient temperature dynamic model to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of permafrost conditions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska—a region currently characterized by continuous permafrost in its northern part and discontinuous permafrost in the south. We calibrate model parameters using a variational data assimilation technique exploiting historical ground temperature measurements collected across the study area. The model is then evaluated with a separate control set of the ground temperature data. Calibrated model parameters are distributed across the domain according to ecosystem types. The forcing applied to our model consists of historic monthly temperature and precipitation data and climate projections based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Simulated near‐surface permafrost extent for the 2000–2010 decade agrees well with existing permafrost maps and previous Alaska‐wide modeling studies. Future projections suggest a significant increase (3.0°C under RCP 4.5 and 4.4°C under RCP 8.5 at the 2 m depth) in mean decadal ground temperature on average for the peninsula for the 2090–2100 decade when compared to the period of 2000–2010. Widespread degradation of the near‐surface permafrost is projected to reduce its extent at the end of the 21st century to only 43% of the peninsula's area under RCP 4.5 and 8% under RCP 8.5.

Frozen ground and snow cover monitoring in Livingston and Deception islands, Antarctica: preliminary results of the 2015-2019 PERMASNOW project

Since 2006, our research team has been establishing in the islands of Livingston and Deception, (South Shetland archipelago, Antarctica) several monitoring stations of the active layer thickness within the international network Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM), and the ground thermal regime for the Ground Terrestrial Network-Permafrost (GTN-P). Both networks were developed within the International Permafrost Association (IPA). In the GTN-P stations, in addition to the temperature of the air, soil, and terrain at different depths, the snow thickness is also monitored by snow poles. Since 2006, a delay in the disappearance of the snow layer has been observed, which could explain the variations we observed in the active layer thickness and permafrost temperatures. Therefore, in late 2015 our research group started the PERMASNOW project (2015-2019) to pay attention to the effect of snow cover on ground thermal This project had two different ways to study the snow cover. On the first hand, in early 2017 we deployed new instrumentation, including new time lapse cameras, snow poles with high number of sensors and a complete and complex set of instruments and sensors to configure a snow pack analyzer station providing 32 environmental and snow parameters. We used the data acquired along 2017 and 2018 years with the new instruments, together with the available from all our already existing sensors, to study in detail the snow cover. On the other hand, remote sensing data were used to try to map the snow cover, not only at our monitoring stations but the entire islands in order to map and study the snow cover distribution, as well as to start the way for future permafrost mapping in the entire islands. MODIS-derived surface temperatures and albedo products were used to detect the snow cover and to test the surface temperature. Since cloud presence limited the acquisition of valid observations of MODIS sensor, we also analyzed Terrasar X data to overcome this limitation. Remote sensing data validation required the acquirement of in situ ground-true data, consisting on data from our permanent instruments, as well as ad hoc measurements in the field (snow cover mapping, snow pits, albedo characterization, etc.). Although the project is finished, the data analysis is still ongoing. We present here the different research tasks we are developing as well as the most important results we already obtained about the snow cover. These results confirm how the snow cover duration has been changing in the last years, affecting the ground thermal behavior.

Sensitivity evaluation of the Kudryavtsev permafrost model

Modeling is an important way to assess current and future permafrost spatial distribution and dynamics, especially in data poor areas like the Arctic region. Here, we evaluate a physics-based analytical model, Kudryavtsev's active layer model, which is widely used because it has relatively few data requirements. This model was recently incorporated into a component modeling toolbox, allowing for coupled modeling of permafrost and geomorphic processes over geological timescales. However, systematic quantitative assessment of the influence of its controlling parameters on permafrost temperature and active layer thickness predictions has not been undertaken before. We investigate the sensitivity of the Kudryavtsev's active layer model by Monte Carlo simulations to generate probability distributions for input parameters and compare predictions with a comprehensive benchmark dataset of in-situ permafrost observations over entire Alaska. Predicted permafrost surface temperature is highly dependent on mean annual air temperature (r = 0.78 on average), annual temperature amplitude (−0.41), and winter-averaged snow thickness (0.30). Uncertainty of predicted permafrost temperature is relatively small (RMSE = 1 °C), when air temperature and snow depth are well constrained. Similarly, RMSE between simulated and observed ALT at stations is ~0.08 m. However, under given air temperature and snow conditions, soil water content bias can significantly affect modeled active layer thickness (RMSE = 0.1 m or 40% of the observed active layer thickness). If soil water content has a large bias, improvements in other parameters may not significantly improve the active layer predictions of the Kudryavtsev's model.

Modeling permafrost changes on the Qinghai–Tibetan plateau from 1966 to 2100: A case study from two boreholes along the Qinghai–Tibet engineering corridor

AbstractWarming permafrost on a global scale is projected to have significant impacts on engineering, hydrology and environmental quality. Greater warming trends are predicted on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), but most models for mountain permafrost have not considered the effects of water phase change and the state of deep permafrost due to a lack of detailed information. To better understand historical and future permafrost change based on in situ monitoring and field investigations, a numerical heat conduction permafrost model was introduced which differentiated the frozen and thawed state of soil, and considered unfrozen water content in frozen soil, distribution of ground ice and geothermal heat flow. Simulations were conducted at two sites with validation by long‐term monitoring of ground temperature data. After forcing with reconstructed historical ground surface temperature series starting from 1966, the model predicted permafrost changes until 2100 under different RCP scenarios. The results indicate a slow thermal response of permafrost to climate warming at the two investigated sites. Even under the most radical warming scenario (RCP8.5), deepening of the permafrost table is not obvious before 2040. At both sites, the model indicates that shallow permafrost may disappear but deep permafrost may persist by 2100. Moreover, the simulation shows that the degradation modes may differ between zones of discontinuous and continuous permafrost. The main degradation mode of the site in the discontinuous zone appears to be upward thawing from the permafrost base, while that of the site in the continuous zone is downward thawing at the permafrost table with little change at the permafrost base.

Half a century of discontinuous permafrost persistence and degradation in western Canada

AbstractLong‐term field studies of permafrost change are needed to validate predictive models but few are possible because of a paucity of direct observations prior to the late 1970s. To help fill this knowledge gap, we resurveyed a transect of 68 sites, originally investigated in 1962, to evaluate change in the isolated patches and sporadic discontinuous permafrost zones between Keg River, Alberta (57.8°N) and Hay River, Northwest Territories (60.8°N). The goal was to establish the degree of permafrost degradation due to approximately 2°C of regional climate warming over the intervening 55 years, compounded at some sites by forest fire. By 2017–2018, permafrost had degraded at 36% of the 44 sites which exhibited it in 1962, but had persisted at a minimum of 50% with a further 14% potentially retaining permafrost. This is much less degradation than reported for a 1988–1989 survey of the same transect. Permafrost was maintained under thicker organic layers (86% > 40 cm) and at the majority of sites with fine‐grained substrates, while degradation occurred preferentially at sites with coarse soils and thinner organic layers. Forest fire did not enhance the degree of permafrost loss, but greater frost table depths were observed at some burned locations. This study demonstrates that while the trajectory of change is towards permafrost loss, thin permafrost in the discontinuous zone can be persistent, even when disturbed. It also underlines the importance of considering the range of landscape types when projecting the rate of future permafrost thaw.

Controls of soil organic matter on soil thermal dynamics in the northern high latitudes

Permafrost warming and potential soil carbon (SOC) release after thawing may amplify climate change, yet model estimates of present-day and future permafrost extent vary widely, partly due to uncertainties in simulated soil temperature. Here, we derive thermal diffusivity, a key parameter in the soil thermal regime, from depth-specific measurements of monthly soil temperature at about 200 sites in the high latitude regions. We find that, among the tested soil properties including SOC, soil texture, bulk density, and soil moisture, SOC is the dominant factor controlling the variability of diffusivity among sites. Analysis of the CMIP5 model outputs reveals that the parameterization of thermal diffusivity drives the differences in simulated present-day permafrost extent among these models. The strong SOC-thermics coupling is crucial for projecting future permafrost dynamics, since the response of soil temperature and permafrost area to a rising air temperature would be impacted by potential changes in SOC.

Transient Modelling of Permafrost Distribution in Iceland

Warming and degradation of permafrost during the ongoing climate change is of growing concern. Recently, permafrost thawing has been recognized as a new factor triggering landslides in Iceland. Therefore, there is an increased need for a more thorough understanding of permafrost distribution and the temporal evolution of the ground thermal regime in this region. This study focuses on regional modelling of ground temperature evolution in Iceland for the last six decades (1960–2016) by employing the transient permafrost model CryoGrid 2 at 1-km spatial resolution. To account for the strong wind redistribution of snow in Iceland, we ran three realizations of the model, by forcing the embodied snow water equivalent model with 50 %, 100 % and 150 % of gridded precipitation. The modelled permafrost extent strongly depends on snow depth, with around three to fifteen times more cells indicating permafrost in the halved-precipitation run in comparison to the other two precipitation runs. A three- to four-decade-long warming trend has led to warming or degradation of permafrost in some areas of Iceland. We roughly estimate that ~11 % and ~7 % of the land area of Iceland was underlain by permafrost during the periods 1980–1989 and 2010–2016, respectively. Model validation with ground temperature measurements and the distribution of permafrost-related landforms, such as active rock glaciers and stable ice-cored moraines, together with palsas and peat plateaus, shows good agreement. The simulation results may be further used as a baseline for modelling of future permafrost evolution at a regional scale or for identification of landslide-susceptible areas in Iceland.

Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Stocks Along a Thermokarst Lake Sequence in Arctic Alaska.

Thermokarst lake landscapes are permafrost regions, which are prone to rapid (on seasonal to decadal time scales) changes, affecting carbon and nitrogen cycles. However, there is a high degree of uncertainty related to the balance between carbon and nitrogen cycling and storage. We collected 12 permafrost soil cores from six drained thermokarst lake basins (DTLBs) along a chronosequence north of Teshekpuk Lake in northern Alaska and analyzed them for carbon and nitrogen contents. For comparison, we included three lacustrine cores from an adjacent thermokarst lake and one soil core from a non thermokarst affected remnant upland. This allowed to calculate the carbon and nitrogen stocks of the three primary landscape units (DTLB, lake, and upland), to reconstruct the landscape history, and to analyze the effect of thermokarst lake formation and drainage on carbon and nitrogen stocks. We show that carbon and nitrogen contents and the carbon‐nitrogen ratio are considerably lower in sediments of extant lakes than in the DTLB or upland cores indicating degradation of carbon during thermokarst lake formation. However, we found similar amounts of total carbon and nitrogen stocks due to the higher density of lacustrine sediments caused by the lack of ground ice compared to DTLB sediments. In addition, the radiocarbon‐based landscape chronology for the past 7,000 years reveals five successive lake stages of partially, spatially overlapping DTLBs in the study region, reflecting the dynamic nature of ice‐rich permafrost deposits. With this study, we highlight the importance to include these dynamic landscapes in future permafrost carbon feedback models.

Changes in river discharge in typical mountain permafrost catchments, northwestern China

River discharge has changed significantly in high-latitude permafrost regions due to climate warming, but these changes are still unclear in high-mountain permafrost regions. Long-term discharge data of 8 inland river catchments in the Qilian Mountains were analysed, and increased winter (minimum monthly) discharge, decreased recession coefficient and decreased ratio of maximum monthly to minimum monthly discharge (Qmax/Qmin) was detected commonly. This implies that the degradation of mountain permafrost under the warming climate has significantly changed the river discharge of high mountain catchments. Permafrost degradation may influence the relationship between summer precipitation and the following cold-season discharge by promoting liquid water infiltration, increasing the groundwater storage capacity and supporting deep flow paths. However, the role of summer precipitation on cold-season discharge may be affected by different glacier runoff rates (the percentage of glacier runoff contribution to the total annual flow). Under permafrost degradation, summer precipitation will strongly influence the following cold-season discharge in catchments with a low glacier runoff rate (less than 10%) but not the discharge in catchments with a high glacier runoff rate (more than 40%). The results of this study may provide important information for local water resource management and future permafrost hydrological simulation.

Estimation of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under current and future climate conditions using the CMIP5 data

Permafrost has significant impacts on climate change through its strong interaction with the climate system. In order to better understand the permafrost variation and the role it plays in climate change, model outputs from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used in the present study to diagnose the near‐surface permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), assess the abilities of the models to simulate present‐day (1986–2005) permafrost and project future permafrost change on the TP under four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results indicate that estimations of present‐day permafrost using the surface frost index (SFI) and the Kudryavtsev method (KUD) show a spatial distribution similar to that of the frozen soil map on the TP. However, the permafrost area calculated via the KUD is larger than that calculated via the SFI. The SFI produces a present‐day permafrost area of 127.2 × 104 km2. The results also indicate that the permafrost on the TP will undergo regional degradation, mainly at the eastern, southern and northeastern edges, during the 21st century. Furthermore, most of the sustainable permafrost will probably exist only in the northwestern TP by 2099. The SFI also indicates that the permafrost area will shrink by 13.3 × 104 km2 (9.7%) and 14.6 × 104 km2 (10.5%) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the next 20 years and by 36.7 × 104 km2 (26.6%) and 45.7 × 104 km2 (32.7%), respectively, in the next 50 years. The results are helpful for us to better understand the permafrost response to climate change over the TP, further investigate the physical mechanism of the freeze–thaw process and improve the model parameterization scheme.

“Frozen-Ground Cartoons”: Permafrost comics as an innovative tool for polar outreach, education, and engagement

AbstractPermafrost occupies 20 million square kilometres of Earth’s high-latitude and high-altitude landscapes. These regions are sensitive to climate change and human activities; hence, permafrost research is of considerable scientific and societal importance. However, the results of this research are generally not known by the general public. Communicating scientific concepts is an increasingly important task in the research world. Different ways to engage learners and incorporate narratives in teaching materials exist, yet they are generally underused. Here we report on an international scientific outreach project called “Frozen-Ground Cartoons”, which aims at making permafrost science accessible and fun for students, teachers, and parents through the creation of comic strips. We present the context in which the project was initiated, as well as recent education and outreach activities. The future phases of the project primarily involve a series of augmented reality materials, such as maps, photos, videos, and 3D drawings. With this project we aim to foster understanding of permafrost research among broader audiences, inspire future permafrost researchers, and raise public and science community awareness of polar science, education, outreach, and engagement.

Sedimentary and geochemical characteristics of two small permafrost-dominated Arctic river deltas in northern Alaska

Arctic river deltas are highly dynamic environments in the northern circumpolar permafrost region that are affected by fluvial, coastal, and permafrost-thaw processes. They are characterized by thick sediment deposits containing large but poorly constrained amounts of frozen organic carbon and nitrogen. This study presents new data on soil organic carbon and nitrogen storage as well as accumulation rates from the Ikpikpuk and Fish Creek river deltas, two small, permafrost-dominated Arctic river deltas on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. A soil organic carbon storage of 42.4 ± 1.6 and 37.9 ± 3.5 kg C m− 2 and soil nitrogen storage of 2.1 ± 0.1 and 2.0 ± 0.2 kg N m− 2 was found for the first 2 m of soil for the Ikpikpuk and Fish Creek river delta, respectively. While the upper meter of soil contains 3.57 Tg C, substantial amounts of carbon (3.09 Tg C or 46%) are also stored within the second meter of soil (100–200 cm) in the two deltas. An increasing and inhomogeneous distribution of C with depth is indicative of the dominance of deltaic depositional rather than soil forming processes for soil organic carbon storage. Largely, mid- to late Holocene radiocarbon dates in our cores suggest different carbon accumulation rates for the two deltas for the last 2000 years. Rates up to 28 g C m− 2 year− 1 for the Ikpikpuk river delta are about twice as high as for the Fish Creek river delta. With this study, we highlight the importance of including these highly dynamic permafrost environments in future permafrost carbon estimations.

Effects of Permafrost Degradation on the Hydrological Regime in the Source Regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, China

Climate warming has intensified permafrost degradation, which could have a variety of implications on the hydrological regime in permafrost regions. In this study, we analyzed the effects of permafrost degradation on the hydrological regime via four hydrological variables for 10 unregulated catchments in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers. The results demonstrate that catchments with high permafrost coverage are expected to have an increased winter discharge ratio (proportion of winter discharge contribution to total annual flow), a decreased recession coefficient and a decreased ratio of Qmax/Qmin due to permafrost degradation. However, the great storage effects of lakes and wetlands, which could contribute to more groundwater instead of direct surface discharge, may affect the hydrological effects of permafrost degradation and result in the abnormal performance at catchment scale. The correlation analysis between summer precipitation (July–September) and the following winter discharge (December–February) indicates that permafrost degradation may affect the redistribution of summer precipitation towards the following winter discharge via increasing the soil storage capacity and delaying the release of water into streams in permafrost regions. However, unlike the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions, no significant changes for the hydrological regime (four hydrological variables) are detected over the individual periods of records for each catchment. Decreased precipitation in summer seems to reduce the water infiltration to supply the groundwater, which weakens the effects of permafrost degradation on the hydrological regime. This study implies that the storage effects of lakes and wetlands and the changes of summer precipitation patterns should be considered in future permafrost hydrological simulations, which have suggested that a large increase in groundwater discharge to streams will likely occur in response to permafrost degradation due to the warming climate in the ideal scenario.

Modelling present and future permafrost thermal regimes in Northeast Greenland

Permafrost is vulnerable to rapid changes in climate, and increasing air temperatures have recently resulted in the increase of active layer thickness, thaw subsidence and warming of the underlying permafrost. Such changes have important implications for geotechnical properties and the stability of infrastructures in permafrost-affected areas. Many studies focus on the sensitivity of the active layer with respect to changes in climate conditions, but few assess the sensitivity of active layer thermal properties in relation to sediment types and soil water contents, and the importance of direct measurements of thermal property sensitivity with respect to soil water content compared to default physical relationships incorporated in process-based models. In this study, we use on-site data and samples to measure thermal conductivity (TC) at different gravimetric water/ice contents (GWC) in frozen and thawed permafrost. The samples, obtained from an emerged delta and an alluvial fan in the Zackenberg Valley, NE Greenland, are characterized by contrasting grain-size distribution and mineralogy. We calibrated a coupled heat and water transfer model, the “CoupModel”, to simulate permafrost temperatures at two sites on the delta. The sites have different snow depth characteristics and were simulated using both observed and default values of TC, and observed liquid soil water content. The results show that depth- and sediment type-specific TC values are crucial for a successful model simulation, and that transfer function derived values of TC are useful for modeling permafrost temperatures as long as site- and depth-specific grain size distribution and ice contents are defined. A thicker snow pack increased ground surface temperatures and resulted in a 1°C higher annual mean ground temperature at the depth of zero annual amplitude. Permafrost temperatures increased by 1.5°C and 3.5°C at the depth of 18m with 3°C and 6°C ground surface warming, but warming combined with increased soil water content had no important additional effect on the thermal regime when ground surface temperatures were prescribed as upper boundary conditions. Precipitation in the form of snow, however, may have a larger effect on ground temperatures directly, due to the surface temperature changes, than will the subsequent changes in thermal properties following increase in soil water content.

Permafrost and land cover as controlling factors for light fraction organic matter on the southern Qinghai-Tibetan plateau

Permafrost degradation can stimulate the decomposition of organic soil matter and cause a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The light fraction organic matter (LFOM) is a labile substrate for microbial decomposition and probably plays an important role in future permafrost carbon cycles. However, little is known about the distribution of LFOM and its relationship with permafrost and environmental factors. Here, we investigated the light fraction carbon (LFC) and nitrogen (LFN) contents and stocks under meadows and wet meadows with different permafrost conditions on the southern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our results showed that LFC and LFN were mainly distributed in the upper 30cm of soils, and the sites with permafrost had significantly higher contents of LFC and LFN than those from the sites without existing permafrost. The LFC and LFN decreased sharply with depth, suggesting that the soil organic matter (SOM) in this area was highly decomposed in deep soils. Soil moisture and bulk density explained approximately 50% of the variances in LFC and LFN for all the sampling sites, while soil moisture explained approximately 30% of the variance in permafrost sites. Both the C:N ratios and LFC:LFN ratios in the sites with permafrost were higher than those in the sites without permafrost. The results suggested that the permafrost and land cover types are the main factors controlling LFOM content and stock, and that permafrost degradation would lead to a decrease of LFOM and soil C:N ratios, thus accelerating the decomposition of SOM.