Expectations Of Future Performance Research Articles

Public virtual organizations

This article argues that the virtual organization model (also called web-enterprises by the former U.S. Secretary of Labor, Robert Reich in The Work of Nations) can meet the challenge for our new age. This model is already in place in the U.S. federal government in the form of Cooperative Administrative Support Units (CASU’s). These organizations bear a close resemblance to Reich's model and have documented significant successes. The article also argues that the implications and applications of the CASU in public administration are far reaching. This creative and innovative approach to responsible government warrants expanded use into new and diverse areas. Organizational designers should not restrict its use simply to rote administrative activities. This article draws heavily from the work of former Secretary Reich and Warren Master, Director of the National CASU Program in the U.S. General Services Administration. Both provide new paths of possibilities for administrators. Their leadership forges new and often brighter expectations for future organizational performance.

Performance and Stock Options: Oil and Water?

Increasingly popular, stock options may reward managers more for investors' expectations of future performance than for current performance.

Customer racial discrimination for baseball memorabilia

This paper investigates customer racial discrimination in the market for baseball cards. It extends previous research by measuring customer racial preferences at the beginning and end of players' careers. Our results indicate that customer biases against active Black and Hispanic baseball players may be mitigated by differential expectations of future performance. However, over time we detect statistical differences in rookie card prices by ethnicity, as performance expectations become less important at the end of a player's career.

Disability-Job Fit Stereotypes and the Evaluation of Persons with Disabilities at Work

The present paper describes a laboratory experiment in which raters evaluated the videotaped performance of ratees who did or did not have a disability. This disability was stereotypically either a poor fit with the job in question or not. The results indicated that actual appraisals were not influenced by stereotypes about fit or by disabilities, but that expectations concerning future performance and a number of other decisions and recommendations were influenced by this perceived fit. These results suggest that people do hold clear stereotypes about what types of disabilities lead to poor performance on a given job, and that these stereotypes are relied upon for certain personnel decisions, even in light of performance evidence that suggests that these stereotypes are invalid. Employees' disabilities may not influence supervisors' evaluations of their past performance when supervisors have clear objective performance information available. However, bias still exists in expectations for future performance and training recommendations. This bias can have severe long-term consequences on one's career within an organization. The scenario is worse when one's disability is stereotypically believed to be unsuitable to the job in question.

Physical Attractiveness on Cognitive Evaluations of Saleswomen’s Performance

The present study examines the role of physical attractiveness in the causal attribution process of saleswomen’s performance. Sex-role stereotyping and attribution theory provide the theoretical framework for examining the influence of physical attractiveness in the evaluation process. Specifically, we develop hypotheses of how physical attractiveness, sex role stereotyped products and performance information affect: (I) causal attributions used to explain saleswomen’s performance, (2) expectations for future performance, and (3) decision confidence. Contrary to the practitioner literature, our experimental results support recent research showing that physical attractiveness plays a limited role in evaluator causal attributions and expectations for future performance of saleswomen. However, physical attractiveness appears to have a significant influence on evaluator decision confidence.

Computer-related success and failure: a longitudinal field study of the factors influencing computer-related performance

This study used a path analysis of longitudinal data collected from 75 manufacturing employees participating in a computer training course, to test a model of the intrapersonal processes impacting computer-related performance. Gender, computer experience, and attributional style were found to be predictive of computer attitudes, which were in turn related to computer efficacy, task-specific performance expectations, and post-performance anxiety. Computer training was effective in raising user efficacy levels and improving computer performance. In addition, post-training efficacy was predictive of subsequent computer performance. Finally, performance outcomes and future performance expectations were predictive of users’ affective reactions.

Teacher response to learning disability: a test of attributional principles.

Attribution research has identified student ability and effort expended as causes of achievement outcomes that result in differing teacher affect, evaluative feedback, and expectation of future performance. Ninety-seven elementary-school general education teachers (84 women and 13 men) rated their responses to the test failures of hypothetical boys with and without learning disabilities. In most cases, greater reward and less punishment, less anger and more pity, and higher expectations of future failure followed the negative outcomes of the boys with learning disabilities, when compared with their nondisabled ability and effort matches, indicating that learning disability acts as a cause of achievement outcomes in the same way as ability and effort. This pattern of teacher affect and response can send negative messages that are often interpreted as low-ability cues, thus affecting students' self-esteem, sense of competence as learners, and motivation to achieve.

The Economics of Politics in Comparative Perspective Revisited: An Introduction

Students of political behavior have long been interested in whether and how economics structures politics. Over the past two and a half decades, much effort has been devoted to investigating the influence of the economy on voting behavior, election outcomes, and government support in democratic polities. A special issue of Political Behavior explicitly addressed these issues some thirteen years ago. Since the publication of that special issue, however, a number of important developments have occurred. Clearly, we have learned a great deal about the influence of the economy on elections. We have been able to establish that there are powerful effects of economic conditions and perceptions at various levels of analysis (see Nannestad and Paldam, 1994, for an overview). Increasingly, attention has centered on identifying how the economy influences vote choice; that is, research has focused on which of voters' many economic perceptions are most important (see especially Lewis-Beck, 1988). The cumulative body of empirical work now supports a sociotropic electorate that votes on the basis of the state of the national economy. The bulk of this work finds that voters evaluate past performance, although some recent research also suggests that voters are "prospective," basing their political judgments on expectations of future economic performance (Lewis-Beck, 1988). Regardless of the exact nature of the effects, it is now fairly clear that vote choice and election outcomes are driven by the direction and magnitude of economic change, whether retrospective or prospective in nature. Scholarly interest in the relationship between the economy and politics

Self-Consistency, Self-Enhancement, and Accuracy in Reactions to Feedback

An experiment tested predictions generated by a model of the role of self-consistency, self-enhancement, and accuracy in reactions to feedback. The model proposed that affective reactions would be dominated by self-enhancement, that attributions and perceptions of feedback accuracy would be dominated by self-consistency, and that self-evaluations and expectations for future performance would reflect both self-consistency and accuracy. One hundred seventy-two subjects received either positive or negative feedback regarding their performance on an anagrams test. Results generally supported the model. Self-enhancement dominated affective responses: Subjects felt better after receiving positive feedback than after receiving negative feedback. Self-consistency effects emerged for attributions and perceptions of feedback accuracy: (1) Those high in self-esteem accepted more responsibility for receiving positive feedback than negative feedback, and they viewed positve feedback as more accurate; (2) Those low in self-esteen accepted more responsibility for negative feedback than positive feedback, and perceived negative feedback as more accurate. Reflecting both accuracy and self-consistency, there were main effects for both feedback and self-esteem on self-evaluations and expectations. Discussion focuses on how this study supports the model, the value of distingushing among different types of cognitive reactions, and the need to explicitly incorporate accuracy concerns in perspectives on reactions to feedback.

An Examination of Customer Racial Discrimination in the Market for Baseball Memorabilia

This article investigates customer racial discrimination in the market for baseball memorabilia. The authors examine whether a player's ethnic background influences the price collectors are willing to pay for recently issued rookie baseball cards. Their empirical analysis of all rookie cards issued from 1984 through 1990 examines if price is explained not only by past player performance but also by other factors such as expected future performance and ethnicity. The authors raise the possibility that bias could occur because race influences expectations of future performance. However, in contrast to previous studies, their empirical results indicate that price differences are not influenced by race. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.

When Expectations Work: Race and Socioeconomic Differences in School Performance

Why are expectations for future performance realized more often by some people than by others, and why are such differences in the efficacy of performance expectations socially patterned? We hypothesize that differences in attentiveness to performance feedback may be relevant, reasoning that follow-through behaviors will be less well conceived when expectations are formed without regard to evaluation of previous performance. Using data from Baltimore fourth-grade students and their parents, we find that expectations anticipate marks more accurately when recall of prior marks is correct than when it is incorrect. Because errors of recall (mostly on the high side) are more common among lower-SES and minority children and their parents, their school performance is affected most strongly. Research on school attainment processes from a motivational perspective must give more attention to the additional resources that facilitate successful goal attainment, given high expectations. Our perspective focuses on resources internal to the individual, but external constraints also are important. The discussion stresses the need for further work in both areas

A Simplistic Evaluation of Over 30 Years' Horizontal Hydrocarbon Solvent Flood Performance In Alberta

Abstract The following discussion will examine the trends in performance shown by mature projects in an attempt to expose reasons for encouraging/discouraging results. Inferences drawn from the information presented are those of the author. The reader is left with the responsibility of building them into useful conclusions. Data Resources Bias in the interpretation of the performance of the 10 project areas studied was avoided by limiting the data used to Alberta Energy Resources Conservation Board (AERCB) records:Defined project areas and the wells within themAverage reservoir factors and discovery datesInitial oil in placeProduction and injection history filesExecutive summaries and maps in operations reports The parameters used in relation to the performance analysis are presented in Table I. Analysis Concepts As a start, a small set of key performance measuring parameters was sought. After examining alternatives oil rate performance was perceived to be the most useful parameter, particularly with regard to establishment of stable decline to ultimate recovery and reaction to changes in reservoir depletion process. Producing water-oil and gas-oil ratios were included, indicating ability to keep injected fluid in the reservoir and success of management strategies. Total liquid production completes the set used giving information about reflection of wells to changes in reservoir depletion process and operations aimed at reducing production of injected fluids. The selection of study variables immediately led into a "decline curve" approach, so that plots against a reservoir dependent parameter could be extrapolated to yield inferences about future performance and ultimate expectations. Cumulative oil production since discovery was selected as a common yardstick, to avoid the impact of difference in reservoir quality and depletion rate strategies. Cumulative oil production was divided by rated initial oil in place, and became "depletion", plotting between 0.0 and 1.0. Oil and total liquid production rates were divided by the peak value attained, plotting between 0.0 and 1.0. Producing gas-oil ratio was divided by initial solution gas-oil ratio, plotting between 1 and the chosen practical or "economic" limit of 15. Water-oil ratio is already normalized, plotting between 0.0 and the chosen practical or "'economic" limit of 20. Space does not permit printing the entire set of performance plots developed. Their salient features are discussed below, and the slopes for the straight line extrapolations are presented in Table 2. Capability to re-create the plots from the public data is within reach of anyone desiring to do so. The plots for Fenn-Big Valley South Lobe Project 338 and Kaybob South Triassic "A" Project 165 are presented as Figures 1–4 to show favorable and unfavorable changes in reservoir behavior resulting from horizontal solvent flood. Project Performance Reviews The projects are presented in alphabetical order by pool name to avoid ordering bias. Wherever practical, more than one parameter is extrapolated to show the range of possible outcomes for a project. Ante Creek Project 2 The Ante Creek Beaverhill Lake "A" Pool carbonate reef was discovered in 1962. The location was remote from gas processing and transportation facilities.

Explanations for Successful and Unsuccessful Marketing Decisions: The Decision Maker's Perspective

The authors investigate the attributional processes involved in marketing planning. Using MARKSTRAT, a marketing simulation game, as a research setting, they find that decision makers are likely to have self-serving biases in their causal attributions for performance. The attributions are related to marketing decision makers’ intrinsic incentives to succeed, expectations of future performance, and planning behavior.

Overcoming Gender Bias in Reward Allocation: The Role of Expectations of Future Performance

The present study examined the relationships among gender, causal attributions for success, and the distribution of organizational rewards. In this study, which attempted to control for methodological deficiencies of previous research, male and female undergraduates reviewed the performance of four stimulus managers: three men and one woman. Participants were asked to make causal attributions for the stimulus manager's success, and to rate how effectively they believed the manager would perform in the future. They were then asked to nominate a manager for an organizational reward. Bias against the female manager was exhibited by females only. Results indicated that lower expectations of future performance for the female manager significantly predicted the bias against her in reward allocation.

Depressive self-presentation: Beyond self-handicapping.

An experiment was conducted to examine the notion that depressives' responses would reflect a protective self-presentation style (Hill, Weary, & Williams, 1986), the underlying goal of which would be the avoidance of future performance demands and potential losses in self-esteem. In this study, depressed and nondepressed Ss were asked to perform a relatively simple visual-motor task. Half of the depressed and half of the nondepressed Ss were told that if they were successful at the task, they would be asked to perform a 2nd, similar task. The remaining Ss were given no such expectation of future performance. We predicted and found that depressed compared with nondepressed Ss strategically failed at the task when presented with the possibility of future performance and further losses in esteem. Moreover, this strategic failure was associated with some costs; depressed-future performance expectancy Ss experienced more discomfort or negative affect as a result of their performance. The relationship between this depressive self-presentation and self-handicapping strategies is discussed.

Does Delisting from the S&P 500 Affect Stock Price?

On November 30, 1983, seven stocks were dropped from the Standard & Poor's 500 index to make room for the stocks of the seven new telephone companies. This event offers an unusual opportunity to study the effects of delisting, independent of changes in investor expectations of future performance. Efficient market theory suggests that the market prices of the delisted securities should not have changed, because the delisting would have no effect on their expected future returns. However, the evidence indicates an apparently significant and long-term drop in the prices of the delisted stocks, suggesting a possible measurable negative price effect is associated with delisting from the S&P 500. The Evidence The break-up of AT&T, and the concurrent public offering of securities of the spin-off companies, was expected for about a year prior to the event. The exact nature of the change in the S&P 500, however, was kept confidential until the close of the New York Stock Exchange on November 30, 1983. At that time, subscribers to S&P's telephone notification service were contacted simultaneously and told of the changes in the index. Although some trading on the Pacific Stock Exchange was possible, most of the trading in these stocks occurred on December 1. The following companies were dropped from the S&P 500: * Continental Telecommunications (CTC), * Centel Communications (CNT), * Wisconsin Electric Power Company (WPC), * El Paso Company (ELP), * Brooklyn Union Gas Company (BU),

Sex comparisons on causal attributions: Another look at the null hypothesis

Eighty-two subjects (49 women, 33 men) solved a difficult or easy set of anagrams, after which they indicated their subjective level of performance, provided causal attributions, and stated expectations for future performance. Sex comparisons were conducted on each element in the attribution model. Results indicated no sex differences on subjective evaluation of success, on causal dimensions, on expectations for future performance, or on performance on a final set of anagrams.

Degree and Sequence of Success as Determinants of Self-Attribution of Ability

Summary Ss performance (N = 70 fourth-grade boys and girls) on a 24-item set of problems was experimentally manipulated to reflect one of four patterns: success on both halves of the set, failure on both halves, failure on the first half and success on the second, and success on the first half and failure on the second. Subsequently, Ss' self-attribution of ability regarding the problems and expectations for future success were assessed. As predicted, results showed a primacy effect: performance on the first half of the test determined attribution of ability and expectations for future performance, with later success or failure having negligible effect.