Expectations Of Future Performance Research Articles

Distorted Cognitive Process in Major Depressive Disorder and Relevant Interventions

This paper mainly discussed cognitive distortions of major depression and the methods of intervention for major depression. Then, this paper also contains different studies and different findings that indicate different cognitive patterns and processes of patients with major depression. For example, patients with major depression will be more sensitive to stressful events. Expectations have a significant correlation with major depression. Due to the existence of cognitive dissonance, people tend to reduce this dissonance by changing inconsistent cognition, according to social psychology. An individual's self-esteem level can predict the expectation of future performance. At the same time, some papers have also studied the relationship between mind wandering and major depression, as well as the ambulatory heart rate and variability. There are also relevant studies that found that people with depression post more negative language on social media. Among them, researchers have also developed intervention methods for these cognitive errors. At the same time, it is also important for psychologists to pay attention to patients' expectations when treating patients' mental illness, as the source of most of rumination and loss is to do with the patient's high expectations. Patients struggle to keep track of their most accurate emotions from moment to moment as well. This review can provide some guidance to the design of effective treatment for at-risk individuals.

Local government and small business revenue forecasting: evidence from a transition economy

Abstract This study examines the importance of governance quality of local government in small businesses’ future revenue growth forecasting accuracy. Forecasting errors are due to either overestimation or under-estimation. When local governance quality improves, transaction costs are eliminated, boosting firms’ actual performance up to the level forecast, thereby reducing overestimation. Also, when local governance quality improves, institutional trust (trust in government) and generalized trust (trust in strangers) improve, lifting the expectation of future performance to the actual level, thereby reducing under-estimation. We investigate these two mechanisms using a set of more than 250,000 small businesses in Vietnam using an instrumental variable approach to control for potential endogeneity. It is found that governance quality enhances forecasting accuracy by reducing under-estimation forecasting errors but, interestingly, without affecting overestimation errors. This paper is one of the first that links governance quality to business forecasting, indicating that local authorities can help local businesses make efficient resource preparation by improving their governance quality.

How Many Operative Performance Ratings Does a Pediatric Surgery Fellow Need to Be Deemed Practice Ready?

PurposeIdentifying the number of cases required for a fellow to achieve competence has been challenging. Workplace-based assessment (WBA) systems make collecting performance data practical and create the opportunity to translate WBA ratings into probabilistic statements about a fellow's likelihood of performing to a given standard on a subsequent assessment opportunity. MethodsWe compared data from two pediatric surgery training programs that used the performance rating scale from the Society for Improving Medical Professional Learning (SIMPL). We used a Bayesian generalized linear mixed effects model to examine the relationship past and future performance for three procedures: Laparoscopic Inguinal Hernia Repair, Laparoscopic Gastrostomy Tube Placement, and Pyloromyotomy. ResultsFor site one, 26 faculty assessed 9 fellows on 16 procedures yielding 1094 ratings, of which 778 (71%) earned practice-ready ratings. For site two, 25 faculty rated 3 fellows on 4 unique procedures yielding 234 ratings of which 151 (65%) were deemed practice-ready. We identified similar model-based future performance expectations, with prior practice-ready ratings having a similar average effect across both sites (Site one, B = 0.25; Site two, B = 0.25). Similar prior practice-ready ratings were needed for Laparoscopic G-Tube Placement (Site one = 13; Site two = 14), while greater differences were observed for Laparoscopic Inguinal Hernia Repair (Site one = 10; Site two = 15) and Pyloromyotomy (Site one = 10; Site two = 15). ConclusionOur approach to modeling operative performance data is effective at determining future practice readiness of pediatric surgery fellows across multiple faculty and fellow groups. This method could be used to establish minimum case number requirements. Type of StudyOriginal manuscript, Study of Diagnostic Test. Level of EvidenceII.

Presentation of social responsibility reports and the stock price crash risk

This study explores the relationship between the presentation forms of CSR reports and the stock price crash risk. It is found that the higher the proportion of image area and richer the color of CSR reports, the higher the future stock price crash risk. CSR reports presentation form affects the stock price crash risk through stock liquidity and investors' expectations of the company's future performance. These results indicate that presentation format in social responsibility information disclosure is mainly one of the tools used to build a positive corporate image.

Do financial markets predict macroeconomic performance? US evidence from risk‐based measures

AbstractFinancial markets are expected to predict macroeconomic conditions as movement in the former depends upon expectations of future performance for the latter. However, existing evidence is mixed. We argue that this arises because the stock return and term structure series typically used in studies, fail to sufficiently capture investor risk preferences. For US data, we use the variance risk premium (VRP) and default yield (DFY) to better capture such a risk measure and demonstrate that these variables exhibit greater evidence of predictive power for key macroeconomic series. In addition to VRP and DFY, we include further variables that may also capture market risk. Given similar dynamics between different risk measures and the potential for multicollinearity in estimation, we consider variable combinations. Using results obtained through predictive regressions, out‐of‐sample forecasting and a probit model designed to capture periods of expansion and contraction, we show that these combination variables can predict future movements in macroeconomic conditions as well as results using individual variables. Of key interest, combinations that include the VRP and DFY are preferred across all macro‐series.

Pain self-management intervention supports successful attainment of self-selected rehabilitation goals-secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial.

Objectives(i) Describe patients' self‐selected activity‐related rehabilitation goals, and (ii) compare attainment of these rehabilitation goals among people with persistent tension‐type neck pain receiving a group‐based pain and stress self‐management intervention (PASS) or individual physiotherapy (IPT).MethodsBefore intervention and random allocation to PASS or IPT, 156 people (PASS n = 77, IPT n = 79), listed three self‐selected activity‐related rehabilitation goals by use of the Patient Goal Priority Questionnaire (PGPQ). For each activity goal, participants rated limitations in activity performance, self‐efficacy and fear of activity performance, readiness to change to improve performance, and expectations of future activity performance. At follow‐ups (10 weeks, 20 weeks, 1 year and 2 years after inclusion), participants also responded to a question on changes made to improve activity performance. Mann–Whitney U test was used to evaluate between‐group differences.ResultsThere were between‐group differences in favour of PASS in the attainment of self‐selected rehabilitation goals with regard to activity limitations and satisfaction with activity performance at all follow‐ups.ConclusionsPASS was more successful than IPT for the attainment of self‐selected rehabilitation goals, improvements in activity limitations and satisfaction with activity performance as measured by PGPQ. The PASS programme emphasized the importance of applying active pain‐ and stress‐coping techniques in personal ‘risk situations’ for pain flare‐ups, which appear to support people with persistent tension‐type neck pain to make changes in their lives to improve activity performance.Patient or Public ContributionPatient engagement in rehabilitation by self‐selected goals was investigated, but patients were not involved in the design or conduct of the study.

The Role of Time in Organizational Aspirations: Past- and Future-Oriented Performance Feedback

Research in the tradition of the Behavioral Theory of the Firm (BTF) has long analyzed organizations’ reactions to discrepancies between aspiration and actual performance – yet largely overlooked the formative role of time. We contribute to organizational aspirations literature by theorizing and empirically testing two temporal dimensions in a single study: (a) the impact of time-persistent innovative under- and overperformance on engagement in external corporate venturing (ECV) and (b) the moderating effect of future financial performance expectations. We develop our hypotheses on temporal dynamics of managerial cognition around performance feedback by integrating insights from momentum theory and strategic reference point theory. We test our hypotheses on a sample of high-tech firms in the U.S., combining patent-based innovation data with ECV deal data and security analyst estimates from 2005 to 2016. We find that firms first decrease and then increase their engagement in ECV with persistent innovative underperformance; and vice versa for persistent innovative overperformance. We also find evidence for the moderating role of future performance expectations on firms’ reactions to time-persistent innovative performance feedback. The importance of temporal dynamics to managerial cognition that we uncover can help to explain conflicting empirical findings on innovative search reactions to performance feedback.

The Role of Institutional Environment Driving Firms' Attention to Forward-looking Aspirations

When are firms’ search behaviors regulated by their future performance expectations below their future performance targets (forward-looking determinant of search behavior) versus their performance below their historical or social aspirations (backward-looking determinant of search behavior)? Firms’ search behaviors are influenced both by their forward- and backward-looking determinants, yet we do not know much about the contingencies that make firms more/less attentive to the forward-looking versus backward-looking search determinants. Our fundamental argument is that firms’ resource dependence on distinct environmental actors in different institutional settings makes their search more attentive to forward- or backward-looking search determinants. We specifically argue that although capital market demands in market-based financial systems make firms’ search forward-looking, demands and pressures of banks in bank-based financial systems make their search activities backward-looking. Our findings suggest that although the impact of future performance expectations below targets on firms’ search activities is intensified in market-based financial systems, firms’ search activities are more influenced by their performance decline below aspirations in bank-based financial systems. We discuss implications for theory and practice.

Change and Stability in Industry Architectures: Firm Actions and Performance Effects

This study analyzes performance effects of firm efforts to shape the structure of an industry. We view industry structure through the conceptual lens of industry architectures and posit that firms shape these architectures by carrying out a single or multiple of change- and stability-oriented actions over time. We hypothesize that both types of actions differently affect firm performance and that this relationship is moderated by the predictability, segment conformity, and simplicity of firms’ competitive behavior. To test our hypotheses, we created a unique dataset of airline actions that fostered either stability or change in the flight-ticket distribution architecture and assessed, as a proxy for firm performance, the change these actions cause in investors’ expectations of future firm performance once an action is announced. Our findings reveal that change-oriented actions negatively affect firm performance and that this effect is further exacerbated by simplicity in firms’ competitive behavior, but that stability-oriented actions have an inconclusive effect. Our findings challenge the literature’s overwhelming focus on firm-driven change and its associated benefits and makes an initial effort at identifying the factors that both facilitate firm efforts to shape architecture and influence firm performance.

Looking forward instead of backward

PurposeAccording to behavioral research, aspirations influence a firm's search – exploitive and explorative – for solutions that satisfy a firm's goals. Yet, such goal seeking behavior is adaptive to a firm's past experiences and not to a manager's expectations of its firm's future. A manager's expectations are often explained in terms of their confidence in future events. The purpose of this study is to address the following research question: how does a manager's confidence influence its expectations of a firm's future performance and goals; and how do these future expectations influence a firm's exploitive/explorative search?Design/methodology/approachIn drawing on cognition and legitimacy research, a conceptual model was developed to explain the antecedents and outcomes of a firm's “forward-looking” aspirations. The antecedents to a firm's forward-looking aspirations are attributed to a manager's overconfidence – anchoring, confirmation and availability – biases. In using strategic legitimacy explanations, these biases introduce distinct types of forward-looking (exploitive/explorative) search that legitimize/de-legitimize a manager's forward-looking aspirations.FindingsA key finding of this study is that it introduces a strategic decision-making process in which a firm's exploitive/ explorative search is adaptive toward its forward-looking aspirations.Research limitations/implicationsThis forward-looking strategic decision-making process offers research implications to understand how a firm's future goals and expectations can offer new understandings of their past experiences and traditions and explains how a manager's overconfidence biases can influence the assessment of a firm's social aspirational groups.Practical implicationsIn addition, this study also offers practical implications in which illustrative examples are used to explain this study's forward-looking strategic decision-making process.Originality/valueA distinct contribution of this study is that it introduces a forward-looking orientation that has not been previously examined the backward focus of behavioral research.

Forecasting U.S. stock returns

We forecast quarterly US stock returns using a breadth of forecast variables, methods and metrics, including linear and non-linear regressions, rolling and recursive techniques, forecast combinations and statistical and economic evaluation. Thus, extending research in terms of the range of predictor series and the scope of analysis. Consistent with much of literature, a broad view over the full set of predictor variables indicates that such models are unable to beat the historical mean model. However, nuances reveal forecast success varies according to how the forecasts are evaluated and over time. Results reveal that the term structure of interest rates consistently provides the preferred forecast performance, especially when evaluated using the Sharpe ratio. The purchasing managers index also consistently provides a strong forecast performance. Further results reveal that forecast combinations over the full set of variables do not outperform the preferred single variable forecasts, while an interest rate forecast combination subset does perform well. The success of the term structure and the purchasing managers index highlights the importance of, respectively, investor and firm expectations of future economic performance in providing valuable stock return forecasts and is consistent with asset pricing models that indicate movements in returns are conditioned by such expectations.

Ethnic and social class discrimination in education: Experimental evidence from Germany

Even though social class is at least as predictive of educational achievement as ethnicity in virtually all developed countries, experimental research on discrimination in education has overwhelmingly focused on the latter. We investigate both ethnic discrimination and social class discrimination by elementary school teachers in Germany. We conceptualize discrimination as causal effects of signals and use directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to disentangle ethnic from social class discrimination. In our experiment, we asked randomly sampled elementary school teachers who teach immigrants to evaluate an essay written by a fourth-grader. Employing a 2x2x3 factorial design, we varied essay quality, child's gender, and ethnic and socioeconomic background using names as stimuli. We do not find evidence for discrimination in grading. However, our findings for teachers’ expectations of children's future performance suggest a discriminatory bias along the lines of both ethnicity and social class. The effect is conditional on essay quality—it only holds true for the better essay. We interpret our findings as evidence for models that highlight situational moderators such as the richness of information and ambiguity—e.g., statistical discrimination—but as evidence against simpler models of ingroup-favoritism or outgroup derogation, e.g., social identity theory or taste discrimination.

Real Incentive Effects of Soft Information

ABSTRACTBoth soft, noncontractible, and hard, contractible, information are informative about managerial ability and future firm performance. If a manager's future compensation depends on expectations of ability or future performance, then the manager has implicit incentives to affect the information. We examine the real incentive effects of soft information in a dynamic agency with limited commitment. When long‐term contracts are renegotiated, the rewards for future performance inherent in long‐term contracts allow the principal partial control over the implicit incentives. This is because the soft information affects the basis for contract renegotiation. With short‐term contracts, the principal has no control over the basis for contract negotiation, and thus long‐term contracts generally dominate short‐term contracts. With long‐term contracts, the principal's control over implicit incentives is characterized in terms of effective contracting on an implicit aggregation of the soft information that arises from predicting (forming expectations of) future performance. We provide sufficient conditions for soft information to have no real incentive effects. In general, implicit incentives not controllable by the principal include fixed effects, such as career concerns driven by labor markets external to the agency. When controllable incentives span the fixed effects of career concerns, the latter have no real effects with regard to total managerial incentives—they would optimally be the same with or without career concerns. Our analysis suggests empirical tests for estimating career concerns that should explicitly incorporate noncontractible information.

Net deferred tax assets and the long-run performance of Initial Public Offerings

On average, firms’ going public severely underperform compared to the market, a phenomenon which is widely known in the literature as IPO underperformance. Though there is no generally accepted theory on the reasons, information asymmetries and the scarcity of information on the issuers is generally considered to contribute to the phenomenon. Accounting data provided by issuers in the offering prospectuses is mostly backward-looking information that is of limited use in forming expectations of future performance. This problem becomes even more pressing, given the increasing fraction of loss firms among IPOs. Net deferred tax assets (NDTA), however, are a balance sheet item that can be expected to include forward-looking information on future earnings. Reporting under IFRS, firms may recognize NDTA only to the extent, that positive income will be available in future periods. We, therefore, expect NDTA to be positively associated with the long-run performance of IPOs. Investigating a sample of firms going public in Germany between 2005 and 2015, we find that NDTA are positively associated with long-run stock price performance. The association is particularly strong among loss firms. Our findings are relevant especially to investors, who regularly have difficulties valuing loss firms. We show that firms which recognized NDTA perform much better in the aftermarket than those that do not have NDTA on the balance sheet. The most important lesson to be learned is that IPO firms that did not recognize NDTA will likely be very poor investments.

Interbank Network Characteristics, Monetary Policy ‘News’ and Sensitivity of Bank Stock Returns

This paper investigates whether interbank network topology influences the impact of monetary policy announcements on bank cumulative abnormal returns (CAR's). Although recent studies have emphasized the channels of non-conventional monetary policy actions and the sensitivity of bank stock prices to News, how such reaction could be influenced by the shape of bank networks remains an open issue. We look at how banks' interconnectedness within interbank loan and deposit networks affects investors' expectations of future bank performance in response to monetary policy News. Our sample consists of commercial, investment, real estate and mortgage banks in 10 Euro-zone countries. Our results show that the stock prices of banks with stronger local network positions are less sensitive to monetary policy announcements while those of banks with stronger system-wide positions are more sensitive to them.

Forecasting US Stock Returns

We forecast quarterly US stock returns using eighteen predictor variables both individually and in multivariate regressions, with the former also used in forecast combinations. Using rolling and recursive approaches, we consider a range of statistical and economic evaluation measures. We consider linear and non-linear regressions as well as forecast evaluations over both market and economic regimes and calculated on a rolling and recursive basis. The results reveal that the term structure of interest rates consistently provides the preferred forecast performance, especially when evaluated using the Sharpe ratio. Additionally, the purchasing managers index consistently provides a strong forecast performance. A broad view over the full set of predictive variables tends to indicate that such models are unable to beat the historical mean model. However, nuances to these results reveals forecast success varies according to how the forecasts are evaluated and over time. The success of the term structure (and the purchasing managers index) reveals that investor (and firm) expectations of future economic performance provide valuable stock return forecasts and is consistent with asset pricing models that indicate movements in returns are conditioned by such expectations.

A framework for operational due diligence

Operational due diligence is an essential step in the purchase decision process when mergers and acquisition (M&A) practitioners assess whether a target company can realize future performance expectations. The aim of this paper is to strengthen the current research on operational due diligence and provide practitioners with a conceptual approach to perform successful operational due diligence. Empirical data was collected through explorative case studies with five private equity firms (acquirers) and six advisory firms (representing target companies) using semi-structured interviews and documentation. 140 past M&A cases were used as the empirical data material. Findings were validated through follow-up interviews and an explorative survey. The framework was validated through three workshops with practitioners. This paper presents six groups of operational drivers which have a direct influence on the operational part of an acquisition decision: (1) People and Organization, (2) Information Technology and Systems, (3) Costs and Capital, (4) Scalability, (5), Potentials and (6) Risk. Despite increasing numbers of M&As and the low success rate of these endeavors, very little research has focused on operational due diligence. This paper addresses this gap by presenting an operational due diligence framework useful for practitioners.

Excesso de confiança do Chief Executive Officer e a prática de gerenciamento de resultados

Diversos estudos têm sugerido que o excesso de confiança leva a expectativas de desempenho futuro, e os gerentes podem desenvolver predisposição para o gerenciamento de resultados. O objetivo do estudo é identificar a influência do excesso de confiança de gestores nas práticas de gerenciamento de resultados das empresas brasileiras. A metodologia da pesquisa é descritiva, com abordagem quantitativa, por meio de pesquisa documental. Os métodos estatísticos utilizados foram: entropia, TOPSIS e a regressão linear múltipla. A amostra foi composta de 127 empresas brasileiras listadas na BM&FBovespa. Conclui-se que o menor excesso de confiança impacta positivamente no gerenciamento de resultados. Sugere que os gestores com menor confiança acreditam, com menor intensidade, em suas habilidades, e, para garantir resultados organizacionais que satisfaçam às expectativas de analistas, praticam o gerenciamento de resultados de maneira oportuna para aumentar os resultados organizacionais.

What goes up must . . . Keep going up? Cultural differences in cognitive styles influence evaluations of dynamic performance.

Past research on dynamic workplace performance evaluation has taken as axiomatic that temporal performance trends produce naïve extrapolation effects on performance ratings. That is, we naïvely assume that an individual whose performance has trended upward over time will continue to improve, and rate that individual more positively than an individual whose performance has trended downward over time-even if, on average, the 2 individuals have performed at an equivalent level. However, we argue that such naïve extrapolation effects are more pronounced in Western countries than Eastern countries, owing to Eastern countries having a more holistic cognitive style. To test our hypotheses, we examined the effect of performance trend on expectations of future performance and ratings of past performance across 2 studies: Study 1 compares the magnitude of naïve extrapolation effects among Singaporeans primed with either a more or less holistic cognitive style, and Study 2 examines holistic cognitive style as a mediating mechanism accounting for differences in the magnitude of naïve extrapolation effects between American and Chinese raters. Across both studies, we found support for our predictions that dynamic performance trends have less impact on the ratings of more holistic thinkers. Implications for the dynamic performance and naïve extrapolation literatures are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record

Students’ ICT self-efficacy and computer and information literacy: Determinants and relationships

Self-efficacy is an important concept for understanding learning and achievement. The concept covers students' self-confidence and their expectations for future performance. Students' learning experiences are crucial for the development of self-efficacy beliefs, which may affect students' achievements. The present study explores how self-efficacy can be contextualized with information and communication technology in 15 countries. A theoretical model is built and tested in each country based on data from the International Computer and Information Literacy Study 2013. The analyses show that experience with technology, autonomous learning, and socioeconomic background explain the variations in ICT self-efficacy. Further, gender, self-efficacy, and socioeconomic background play important roles in understanding students’ computer and information literacies. This indicates that ICT self-efficacy is positively related to computer and information literacy when controlled for other student characteristics and background contextual variables. The results reveal a clear distinction between ICT self-efficacy and computer and information literacy.