Future Of Northern Ireland Research Articles

The Future of Northern Ireland: the Role of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement Institutions

AbstractSince the 2016 Brexit referendum a series of crises has gripped Northern Ireland's politics. This has had a destabilising effect across society, which has arguably been felt most acutely by political unionism. The Belfast/Good Friday Agreement (B/GFA) of 1998 created a series of institutions to deal with political conflict in Northern Ireland, manage cross‐border cooperation and normalise relations between the UK and Ireland. However, many aspects of it have been sparingly and ineffectually deployed, most notably the second and third strands dealing with north/south and east/west relations respectively. In this article, the authors argue that regular use of the institutional arrangements created by the Agreement would help to deal with the challenges currently facing Northern Ireland and help address unionist anxieties over the Protocol. Use of the North‐South Ministerial Council (NSMC), the British Irish Council (BIC) and the British‐Irish Intergovernmental Conference (BIIGC) should be prioritised. The unresolved issues arising from Brexit require a recommitment to the intergovernmental logic at the heart of the 1998 Agreement, despite the obstacles.

‘The ‘local-visual turn’: understanding peacebuilding in post-conflict societies using photo-elicitation

ABSTRACT The ‘local turn’ and ‘visual turn’ are increasingly crucial in peacebuilding processes in post-conflict societies. This research combines these concepts, offering a deeper understanding of communities experiencing ongoing peace processes and the environments where these processes take place. It uses the ‘local-visual turn’ with a photo-elicitation methodology to understand the relationship between the material world, social realities, and local peacebuilding processes. Specifically, in Northern Ireland, a post-conflict state experiencing ongoing tensions exacerbated by Brexit. Photo-elicitation interviews were carried out across local communities in Northern Ireland. The findings point to four key themes: local understandings of peace processes in Northern Ireland at the onset of Brexit; youth, peace, and the future of Northern Ireland; religion, churches and the peace processes; and paramilitarism and the peace processes. The results demonstrate that peace processes can be more comprehensively understood by rooting research methodologies in local experiences and physical landscapes.

Understanding the EU Customs Union, Free Movement of Goods, and Enforcement Mechanisms in the Protocol on Northern Ireland: A Legal Appraisal

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) had the immediate impact of drawing an external border of the EU on the island of Ireland. With this, two issues related to Northern Ireland came into sharp focus, both of which related to the absence of a physical border, along the border, on the island of Ireland. Firstly, there was the movement of British and Irish citizens within the UK and Ireland, within what is known as the Common Travel (CTA), ensuring, amongst other things, no physical restrictions on the movement of persons on the island of Ireland, amongst other related matters. Secondly, but equally as important, was the issue of a potential border having to be constructed on the island of Ireland between Ireland and Northern Ireland, in the name of preserving the integrity of the EU customs union and the EU internal market. This would have been, because, if Brexit was to mean Brexit, Northern Ireland would no longer be a part of such arrangements, and physical infrastructure, along the legal border, as an external frontier of the EU, would have to be put in place. Sense prevailed however, and a legal solution was found between the EU and the UK to ensure nothing of such a drastic nature occurred. The EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement (WA) that entered into force in February 2020 sealed the fate of Northern Ireland as regards the legal regime governing the absence of a physical border, along the border, between Northern Ireland and Ireland. The WA contained a specific Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland (NI Protocol or NIP), which claimed to have the magic formula to ensure the pursued objective. The provisions of the NI Protocol, which is the focus of this chapter, makes up the substantial bulk of the applicable law that governs the special place of Northern Ireland within the EU legal order, for the near future. As a legal text, the NI Protocol is intricate and technical, and not designed to be read by a layman. What the NI Protocol does and does not do has been grossly misconstrued amongst various forms of commentary from political actors and the media alike. Accordingly, this chapter will focus solely on the legal aspects of the NI Protocol, and put it in appropriate legal context. With this in mind, clarification is necessary from the outset. The issues concerning Northern Ireland and EU law are numerous, and this chapter is not to serve as an endlessly exhaustive answer to the full range of legal issues arising from Brexit to Northern Ireland, and nor analyzing all the nuances of the NI Protocol. Nor does this chapter see every eventuality with regard to the matters that it does analyze. Rather, its aim is to position Brexit, and determine the legal aspects of the process and result of the NI Protocol, with the effect that it has had on Northern Ireland, with principle focus on the EU customs union, the free movement of goods, and the enforcement mechanisms. The analysis will not focus, unless otherwise stated, on prior drafts of the parties, or the so-called ‘backstop’ that was initially floated as a solution. Instead, the chapter will focus on the WA and NI Protocol that was ratified by the parties, which is currently in force. The chapter is structured as follows Section 2 examines the initial features of the WA and NI Protocol, taking into account the situation of Northern Ireland, and how its status ran into difficulties as regards the EU customs union. Section 3 analyzed the intricate position of the NI Protocol as regards trade in goods in the form of how the EU customs area is extended to Northern Ireland, and the implications this has on different types of trade in goods with Northern Ireland, as well as the type of regulatory alignment envisaged by the NI Protocol. Section 4 scrutinizes implementation, supervision, and enforcement mechanisms that are foreseen in the NI Protocol, and Section 5 looks at how the NI Protocol can eventually be replaced, or alternatively, seeing it being removed following a procedure involving the political establishment in Northern Ireland. Section 6 analyses the initial implementation of the NI Protocol, whilst Section 7, conclusively, draws some remarks about the future of Northern Ireland and the EU legal order.

Public attitudes to different possible models of a United Ireland: evidence from a citizens’ assembly in Northern Ireland

ABSTRACT We empirically identify the considered views of the Northern Ireland public on the relative merits of two possible models of a united Ireland: an integrated united Ireland in which Northern Ireland is absorbed into an all-island polity, and a united Ireland in which Northern Ireland continues to exist as a devolved entity. We use data from a specially designed one-day citizens’ assembly. We report analyses based on quantitative examination of pre- and post-deliberation surveys and qualitative analysis of the transcripts of participants’ deliberation. We find that, after learning about the different two models, citizens’ support for the devolved model declined, particularly among Protestant participants. We elaborate the implications of our findings for any referendum on the constitutional future of Northern Ireland.

The future of Northern Ireland: border anxieties and support for Irish reunification under varieties of UKexit

ABSTRACT The paper assesses public attitudes in Northern Ireland towards the potential hardening of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as a result of the UK’s exit from the European Union. It investigates the relationship between border-related anxieties and support for a United Ireland. The study draws on specially designed qualitative and quantitative data, generated from a one-day citizens’ assembly and a representative attitude survey. It identifies a group of conditional Catholics who support Irish unity, but only under ‘hard exit’ conditions.

Sectarian dynamics of multicultural norms and the law in Lebanon: warning for the future of Northern Ireland

The aim of this article is to show how the institutionalised multicultural political arrangements in Lebanon may have provided for a certain period a degree of local harmony and related toleration when national demographics were relatively stable (or demographic growth was somehow similar within groups or harmony was somehow imposed) but it has not been a force for the same once demographic change has (dramatically) occurred, since it automatically undermined the basis on which any agreement was founded. In addition, whatever harmony it does produce at the national level is not reciprocated at the local level. Indeed multiculturalism may well be a defining feature in the implosion of the Lebanon as a nation state. The reason for this is that any polity to be stable must be inclusive enough at the level of imagined community to encompass change without it being felt as loss by significant groups within the nation state. The institutionalised segregation that the multicultural settlement created in Lebanon does not provide for this inclusiveness since it is predicated on coalitions of exclusive groups (17 religious groups have a political representation in the Parliament) that (often) do not mix or share an imagined community (and, if they do, it is for short-term goals, such as recent coalitions predicated on inter-religious lines, i.e. the anti-Syrian 14 March Alliance) and hence any change is seen not as an inclusive experience to the whole but as exclusive and therefore (in the medium term) as a threat. This creates (long term) inbuilt instability and a permanently failing state. Building on a critique to multiculturalism and consociational theory (at least with reference to power-sharing) we further hypothesise that this situation may well be replicated in Northern Ireland since though in a less fragmented, however more radical separation, it appears to be following a similar trajectory.

The Future of Northern Ireland, edited by John McGarry and Brendan O'Leary; Interpreting Northern Ireland, by John Whyte; Inequality in Northern Ireland, by David Smith and Gerald Chambers; Northern Ireland since 1945, by Sabine Wichert; Northern Ireland: Politics and the Constitution, edited by Brigid Hadfield; The Northern Ireland Question: Myth and Reality, edited by Patrick J. Roche and Brian Barton

The Political QuarterlyVolume 83, Issue s1 p. 402-406 Part II: Reviews, 1957 to 2008: 1990s The Future of Northern Ireland, edited by John McGarry and Brendan O'Leary; Interpreting Northern Ireland, by John Whyte; Inequality in Northern Ireland, by David Smith and Gerald Chambers; Northern Ireland since 1945, by Sabine Wichert; Northern Ireland: Politics and the Constitution, edited by Brigid Hadfield; The Northern Ireland Question: Myth and Reality, edited by Patrick J. Roche and Brian Barton† First published: 16 January 2015 https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.02404_29Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Volume83, Issues1September 2012Pages 402-406 RelatedInformation

A Prosperity of Thought in an Age of Austerity: The Case of Ulster Loyalism

A central failing of analysis of the peace process has been to account for, explain and determine the extent of loyalist‐led conflict transformation. My argument is that, despite evident wrong‐doing, there has been a failure to appreciate the prosperity of loyalist thinking and action in the period after the paramilitary ceasefires of 1994. Loyalism has appeared less relevant than it is to peacemaking due to its criminalisation, its refusal to accept positive morphology and a failure to self‐promote. An appreciation of the positive nature of loyalist transition offers much to those who seek to comprehend the future of Northern Ireland.

Between the devil and the deep blue sea: nationality, power and symbolic trade‐offs among evangelical Protestants in contemporary Northern Ireland1

ABSTRACT. National identity is a symbolically complex configuration, with shifts of emphasis and reprioritisations of content negotiated in contexts of power. This paper shows how they occur in one post‐conflict situation – Northern Ireland – among some of the most extreme of national actors – evangelical Protestants. In‐depth interviews reveal quite radical shifts in the content of their British identity and in their understanding of and relation to the Irish state, with implications for their future politics. The implications for understanding ethno‐religious nationalism, nationality shifts and the future of Northern Ireland are drawn out.

Taking the Troubles across the Atlantic: Ireland's UN Initiatives and Irish–US Diplomatic Relations in the early years of the Conflict in Northern Ireland, 1969–72

When the Northern Ireland civil-rights movement turned violent in the summer of 1969 the Republic of Ireland had few options to attempt to influence the conflict. While the Fianna Fail government of Taoiseach Jack Lynch hoped to enter into direct negotiations with the British over the future of Northern Ireland, Dublin quickly decided to attempt to internationalise the crisis. Ireland made two attempts to directly involve the United Nations and also sought the help of the United States to put pressure on Britain to accept Irish proposals and advice. While these attempts failed to produce their stated goals, they did help to persuade an angry Irish public that Lynch's government was active in trying to end the violence in Northern Ireland. This facilitated the political survival of the Lynch government in the face of challenges from more extreme nationalists within Fianna Fail, and therefore helped to promote a moderate policy on Northern Ireland that became the standard of the Republic's response to the crisis.

Taking the Troubles across the Atlantic: Ireland's UN Initiatives and Irish-US Diplomatic Relations in the Early Years of the Conflict in Northern Ireland, 1969-72

When the Northern Ireland civil-rights movement turned violent in the summer of 1969 the Republic of Ireland had few options to attempt to influence the conflict. While the Fianna Fáil government of Taoiseach Jack Lynch hoped to enter into direct negotiations with the British over the future of Northern Ireland, Dublin quickly decided to attempt to internationalise the crisis. Ireland made two attempts to directly involve the United Nations and also sought the help of the United States to put pressure on Britain to accept Irish proposals and advice. While these attempts failed to produce their stated goals, they did help to persuade an angry Irish public that Lynch's government was active in trying to end the violence in Northern Ireland. This facilitated the political survival of the Lynch government in the face of challenges from more extreme nationalists within Fianna Fáil, and therefore helped to promote a moderate policy on Northern Ireland that became the standard of the Republic's response to the crisis.

Taking the Troubles across the Atlantic: Ireland's UN Initiatives and Irish-US Diplomatic Relations in the Early Years of the Conflict in Northern Ireland, 1969-72

When the Northern Ireland civil-rights movement turned violent in the summer of 1969 the Republic of Ireland had few options to attempt to influence the conflict. While the Fianna Fáil government of Taoiseach Jack Lynch hoped to enter into direct negotiations with the British over the future of Northern Ireland, Dublin quickly decided to attempt to internationalise the crisis. Ireland made two attempts to directly involve the United Nations and also sought the help of the United States to put pressure on Britain to accept Irish proposals and advice. While these attempts failed to produce their stated goals, they did help to persuade an angry Irish public that Lynch's government was active in trying to end the violence in Northern Ireland. This facilitated the political survival of the Lynch government in the face of challenges from more extreme nationalists within Fianna Fáil, and therefore helped to promote a moderate policy on Northern Ireland that became the standard of the Republic's response to the crisis.

Changing shades of orange and green: redefining the union and the nation in contemporary Ireland

Introduction - constitutional innovation and political change in twentieth-century Ireland, John Coakley. Part 1, Political perspectives: Redefining northern nationalism, Alban Maginness MLA Redefining republicanism, Mitchell McLaughlin MLA Redefining unionism, David Ervine Redefining Ireland: a sounthern viewpoint, Desmond O'Malley Part 2, Academic perspectives: The reorientation of constitutional nationalism, Jennifer Todd The transformation of republicanism, Paul Arthur The growth of new unionism, Richard English The emergence of new loyalism, James McAuley The fading of traditional nationalism in the Republic of Ireland, Tom Garvin Conclusion: new strains of unionism and nationalism, John Coakley Appendix, Perspectives on the future of Northern Ireland: selected political documents.

Religious Identity and the Future of Northern Ireland

Religion matters in Northern Ireland because it shapes social and personal identity and influences the very different worldviews of people within the two cultures of the province (Protestant and Catholic). Because religion matters so profoundly, no long‐term solution to the political problems of the province will be possible without acknowledging its impact on values and thinking. The significance of the expressions “the Catholic community” and “the Protestant people” is explored as is the impact of religious ideas on current policy issues. A comparison of Northern Ireland and the United States is offered as a way of suggesting the effect social and economic mobility will have on attempts to resolve the province's political troubles.

The Council of the Isles and the Scotland-Northern Ireland Relationship

The British-Irish Council (BIC), colloquially known as The Council of the Isles', forms Strand Three of the Good Friday Agreement of 10 April 1998, the result of the multiparty negotiations on the future of Northern Ireland (The Agreement 1998, pp. 14-16). The BIC will comprise representatives of the British and Irish governments, devolved institutions in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, and representatives of the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands. The purpose of the Council, as laid down in the Agreement, will be 'to promote the harmonious and mutually beneficial development of the totality of relationships amongst peoples of these islands' (p. 14, para. 1), and 'to exchange information, discuss, consult and use best endeavours to reach agreement on co-operation on matters of mutual interest within the competence of the relevant Administrations' (p. 14, para. 5). In his speech to the Irish Parliament on 26 November 1998, British Prime Minister Tony Blair related the BIC to his hopes for the development of a common approach and a new era of co-operation between the UK and the Republic of Ireland (Belfast Telegraph 26 November 1998).

Building Momentum in Negotiations: Time‐Related Costs and Action‐Forcing Events

Using the negotiations over the future of Northern Ireland and other case examples, the author develops a conceptual framework for analyzing how negotiators seek to build momentum and overcome stalemate. The framework focuses on the choices negotiators face between taking action and waiting in the hope that counterparts will make concessions, exploring the importance of perceptions of time‐related costs and action‐forcing events in shaping decision making. The framework highlights the uneven, nonlinear nature of the flow of negotiation processes from initiation to agreement or breakdown, and focuses on the ways negotiators seek to influence the flow by shaping perceptions of time‐related costs, structuring action‐forcing events, and creating linkages among sets of negotiations.

Frameworked futures: Intransigence and flexibility in the northern Ireland elections of may 30 1996

The elections of May 30th 1996 were a precursor to potentially extensive negotiations over the future of Northern Ireland. However, the rejection of compromise by even their chosen representatives among Protestant voters may effectively shackle attempts at negotiation. Protestant inflexibility over constitutional change, or the proposals for revised electoral procedures, power sharing, parity of esteem, or a North‐South body contained within the Framework Document likewise contrasts markedly with the wide range of options endorsed by Catholics. The explanation for this intransigence derives from the threat posed by any compromises to the position of the unionist community. It provides a significant but not insuperable constraint on prospects for negotiated solutions to the Northern Irish conflict.

The Framework Document on Northern Ireland and the Theory of Power‐Sharing

The Purpose of This Article is To Analyse The Document ‘A Framework for Accountable Government in Northern Ireland’, published by the British government in early 1995, and to assess its significance in terms of the theory of powersharing (consociational democracy). The Framework Document, as it is usually called, received a hostile reception from many Unionist politicians in Northern Ireland. The ideas that it contains, however, resonate with many previous blueprints for the future of Northern Ireland. In some form they are very likely to re-emerge in the proposed solutions that will follow the ‘all-party’ talks set for June 1996. I shall show that the Framework plan for democratic government in Northern Ireland is completely and thoroughly consociational in its orientation. It confirms the proposition that power-sharing is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for viable democracy in deeply divided societies.

Social Policy in a Divided Community: Reflections on the Opsahl Report on the Future of Northern Ireland

This paper offers an account of some of the written and oral evidence presented to the Opsahl Commission established to enquire into possible ways forward for Northern Ireland. It examines issues about social policy raised by the contributors to the Commission, in particular in the areas of poverty and exclusion, children and young people, the role of women, community development and the voluntary sector, and the position of minority groups. Lastly, it relates these crucial aspects of social policy to concepts of citizenship in the context of the future for Northern Ireland.

BOOK REVIEW

The Future of Northern Ireland. Edited by John MCGarry and Brendan O'Leary.Interpreting Northern Ireland. By John Whyte.Inequality in Northern Ireland. By David Smith and Gerald Chambers.Northern Ireland since 1945. By Sabine Wichert.Northern Ireland: Politics and the Constitution. Edited by Brigid Hadfield.The Northern Ireland Question: Myth and Reality. Edited by Patrick J. Roche and Brian barton.The British Press & Broadcasting Since 1945. By Colin Seymourure.The Language of the News Media. By Allan Bell.Regulating the Media. By Thomas Gibbons.The End of History and The Last Man. By Francis Fukuyama.The Legitimation of Power. By David Beetham.The Waning of Humaneness. By Konrad Lorenz.Green Party Members: a Profile. Green Politics Research Group Reports No.l. By Wolfgang Rudig, Lynn G. Bennie, Mark N. Franklin.A Journey Through the Ruins: The Last Days of London. By Patrick Wright.