Future Income Research Articles

Expenditures on sugar-sweetened beverages in Jamaica and its association with household budget allocation

BackgroundSugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) consumption is associated with overweight and obesity, which are important drivers for the increasing healthcare and other social costs. If expenditures on SSB decrease expenditures on other goods and services, such as education and healthcare, this “crowding-out” may have a lasting effect. The main objectives of this article are, first, to estimate the statistical association between the decision of spending in SSB and several households’ sociodemographic characteristics; and second, to estimate the association between the decision of buying SSB and budget allocation across categories in Jamaica.MethodsUsing the Jamaican Household Expenditure Survey 2004–2005 a generalized ordered probit model was estimated to examine the association between socioeconomic variables and the decision to spend on SSB. Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE) of all the expenditure groups (except the SSB group) were used to estimate the association between the decision of buying SSB and budget allocation on other goods and services.ResultsExpenditures on SSB are negatively affected by the size of the household and the area of residence (rural households spend more on SSB than urban ones), while having a larger proportion of children (15 or younger) and having a larger total budget is associated to more expenditures on SSB. Households with positive expenditure on SSB allocate significantly less budget to “Healthcare” and “Education”, when compared to those who did not buy SSB.ConclusionsSSB expenditures may displace expenditures in necessary goods and services, which implies that decreasing the proportion of budget spent on SSB may have important present and future consequences on poorer households’ human capital accumulation and future incomes.

Design and application of energy planning scheme based on genetic algorithm

To promote the construction of ecological civilization in the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan, energy planning is conducive to making full use of Guangxi’s rich renewable energy, promoting the process of energy conservation and emission reduction, improving the low-carbon power structure, and promoting the development of intelligent green energy. This paper proposes a new energy planning scheme for Guangxi Province of China. The 2035 energy planning scheme can help users understand the basic issues of how to reduce emissions and meet energy demand, and provide new energy planning demonstration for the 14th five-year plan by using the scenario demonstration method so that the energy and emission data under different scenarios can actively reflect the future investment income, the proportion of non-fossil energy, carbon emission reduction, energy efficiency, and security; The scheme provides reference scenarios for future energy planning, such as minimum emission reduction, maximum energy efficiency, minimum cost and maximum utilization of renewable energy; In addition, genetic algorithm is used to optimize the path in various scenarios to select the optimal energy planning scheme for users.

Prospective crop yield and income return based on a retrospective analysis of a long-term rainfed agriculture experiment in Nebraska

CONTEXTNebraska, US, is projected to face increased winter and spring precipitation, and drier summers as the climate changes over the next 20 to 30 years. Agricultural adaptations and adjustments would be critical to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change and achieve global food security. OBJECTIVEFocusing on the projected climatic change projections for Nebraska, our objective is to analyze data from a long-term (31 years; 1986–2016) rainfed agriculture experiment to determine how past years, that had similar conditions to the projected future climate - wetter winter (WW), wetter spring (WS), and dry summer (DS), responded to these conditions and attempt to describe the near-future (upcoming 20–30 years) corn and soybean yield, and income returns in northeast Nebraska. METHODSFirst, we used a meteorological drought index, to determine years with projected future climate (6 years with WW, 4 years with WS, and 4 years with DS) and 9 all normal (AN) seasons years during the study period. Second, we performed a linear mixed-model analysis of variance to compare treatment (tillage: no-till, disk-till and plow-till; crop rotation: continuous-corn, corn-soybean; Nitrogen rates: 0–160 kg-N/ha) interaction and their effect on crop yield between projected future climate (WW, WS and DS) years and AN years. Finally, we used partial budgeting to calculate change in income and income risk across imposed management practices. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSResults indicate that corn years with WW, WS, and DS seasons showed yield reductions of 9.1%, 10.9%, and 38.6% compared to an average AN season corn yield, which was 11.3 Mg/ha. Compared to the average AN season yield of 3.6 Mg/ha, soybean yields were + 1.4%, −3.3%, and − 31.8% for WW, WS, and DS, respectively. These yield differences did not significantly affect average corn and soybean income return in WW and WS years compared to the AN years (900 $/ha). However, total income returns in DS seasons regardless of pre-season conditions was about 40% of income return in AN seasons from CS (900 $/ha) and CC (800 $/ha), respectively. Soybean yield and income returns were more stable than corn, which resulted in the corn-soybean rotation system always being higher in yields and being more profitable. SIGNIFICANCEOur recommended management practice of disk tillage and corn-soybean rotation with 80 kg-N/ha could result in highest and stable income returns in near-future. Such long-term crop experimental studies can serve as an important complement to crop-model studies to get improved insight into future crop yield and income returns.

Coastal dilemma: Climate change, public assistance and population displacement

• Countries with populations and economic activity concentrated in low-lying coastal regions are vulnerable to sea-level rise. • As the ocean advances inland, millions of coastal inhabitants will have to retreat, either by choice or force majeure. • Linkages among environmental stress, public assistance and population change are assessed for coastal India and Bangladesh. • Compensatory public assistance strongly dampens the migration response to rising environmental stress. • Damage compensation should direct public resources to households that choose to relocate as the coastal threat mounts. Linkages among climate change–related environmental stress, public assistance, and the spatial pattern of population change are assessed for neighboring coastal areas of India and Bangladesh. Environmental stress is measured using historical cyclone impacts, salinization, and land loss from erosion. Household migration decisions are based on current and expected future income streams in different locations. Rising environmental damage raises costs, but it may also induce increased public assistance that moderates or neutralizes those costs, diminishing migration incentives, even in areas hard-hit by climate change. Econometric estimates for the Sundarbans region shared by India and Bangladesh suggest that endogenous public assistance strongly dampens the migration response to rising environmental stress in both countries, though the assistance response and migration dampening are lower in Bangladesh. A broader analysis for the coastal region from India’s Odisha State to eastern Bangladesh finds that present and past cyclone impacts are highly significant for explaining coastal population changes, although responses are lower in India because of lower environmental stress and greater public-assistance intensity. A counterfactual simulation suggests that, as a result of cyclones since 1970, the affected regions are 8–10% less populous in Bangladesh but only 2% less populous in India. The paper’s findings motivate a discussion of the implications for alternative policy regimes as land erosion increases, and sea-level rise and salinization continue with climate change. After comparing the efficiency and equity of regimes that provide universal damage compensation or leave coastal households to fend for themselves, the paper suggests an alternative approach that focuses public resources on compensation for households that choose to relocate as the coastal threat mounts.

Working less by choice: what are the benefits and hardships?

Working time reduction (WTR) is a policy that could improve quality of life while reducing environmental impacts. However, WTR coupled with a salary reduction may benefit only higher-income earners and increase social inequalities. Against this background, we analyze how the motivations for and the socioecological outcomes from working less vary across different socioeconomic groups. The analysis is based on a survey conducted among municipal employees under full-time contracts who utilized the City of Gothenburg’s “right to part-time” policy. We find that working less improved quality of life not only for higher-income groups but also for lower-income groups through gains in time affluence, energy, health, and time spent on strengthening social ties. However, three negative effects emerged. First, WTR lead to increased work intensification, particularly among higher-income earners. Second, concerns regarding making ends meet and future retirement income were particularly salient issues among lower-income earners. Finally, WTR to cope with unfavorable working conditions was a much more common motivation among manual workers with lower salaries. We conclude that WTR can be a viable option across a broader range of socioeconomic groups than previously assumed but that it is nevertheless important to consider the effects on social inequality when designing WTR policies.

A ‘Rule of Thumb’ and the Return on Investment: The role of valuation devices in the financialization of Northern Australian pastoral land

Northern Australian pastoral land prices have become higher and more volatile over the last twenty years, raising concerns about the potential implications of the financialization of the industry. These prices are not inevitable results of market forces, but mediated and co-constructed by a range of actors using two valuation devices: the ‘Beast Area Value’, a ‘rule of thumb’ which emerged during the early development of the industry, and the ‘Return on Investment’, a tool widely used to compare financial ventures. The Beast Area Value treats land as a commodity whose value is derived from its physical characteristics, while the Return on Investment treats land as an asset whose value is based on its future income generation potential. This article describes how some pastoral companies are strategically combining these devices to earn capital gains through ‘speculative development’ of properties in ways that do not necessarily increase their productivity. It argues that pastoral land is often developed in ways more reflective of the valuation devices used in the region than of the realities of station management, representing a shift from competing in the sphere of production to competing in the sphere of valuation and implicating these devices in the financialization of Northern Australian land.

Economic sentiments and international risk sharing

We examine an unexplored connection between economic sentiments and the degree of international risk sharing. As sentiments provide a sense of the expected direction of future income changes, if risk sharing is imperfect, countries experiencing weak sentiments should take actions to enable the smoothing of their consumption in the event this fall in income materialises. However, we find the opposite holds: weak sentiments are associated with reduced risk sharing. This finding is robust to the inclusion of alternative determinants of international risk sharing, the state of the business cycle as well as undiversifiable and persistent output fluctuations. We provide evidence that our results are consistent with loss aversion. Our findings have important implications for private initiatives and public institutions that aim to improve international risk sharing, which are usually designed on the basis of risk-averse or risk-neutral behaviour.

Time Preferences, Illness, and Death

This paper investigates the predictive power of time preferences on the risk of early mortality and illness in adulthood. Using a unique Swedish cohort of 12,956 individuals born in 1953, interviewed in 1966, and followed with register data up to 2018, the paper finds that patient adolescents are 17–21% less likely to die before age 65. Patient adolescents have fewer hospitalizations and diagnoses in their adult life and are less likely to be diagnosed with conditions associated with lifestyle risk factors. Patient adolescents are also more in favor of sports activities and school rules on smoking. The investigated channels for the relationship between time preferences and future health include lifestyle, mother’s time preferences, and the adolescent’s education attainment and future income. Controlling for education and income reduces the coefficient for time preferences on early mortality by one-fourth.

ANALYSIS OF FACTORS INFLUENCING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN UKRAINE

In today's world, FDI plays an important role for developing economies, as it not only transfers technology and capital, but also determines the dynamics and depth of economic growth and shows the speed of the process of transformation of the economic ecosystem at the national and global levels. Despite the above advantages, the inflow of FDI into Ukraine is not as great as in other countries of the region. The purpose of this article is to analyze the factors influencing foreign direct investment in Ukraine. In this article, based on foreign experience, economic, institutional and other factors influencing FDI were analyzed. Also, the dependence of the inflow of foreign direct investment in the context of Ukraine was assessed, and the prospects and forecast of future investment income were described. The results of the analysis carried out during the writing of this article made it possible to determine the factors that affect the inflow of FDI into the country's economy in order to assess their impact in the context of Ukraine. These include: market size measured by GDP, exchange rate, average wage, indicators of human potential, ease of doing business, level of corruption, tax burden, rule of law index, as well as the impact of regional trade agreements, in particular the free trade zone between Ukraine and EU, established in 2016. Some factors influencing the inflow of FDI to Ukraine over the past 10 years were graphically analyzed, which allowed systematizing a large volume of researched data and became the basis for further analysis of Ukraine's investment situation. After that, regression equations were constructed for each of the influence factors and coefficients of determination were determined. Thus, it can be concluded that in the context of Ukraine, the following factors were statistically significant: institutional indicators, nominal GDP, which measured market potential, the exchange rate of the US dollar, as well as the regional trade agreement factor, which was measured by the volume of trade between Ukraine and the EU. While others show no significant effect or are not supported by the relevant theory. At the end of the article, forecasts of future FDI inflows to Ukraine after the end of the war were formed and described. Regarding recommendations for further research on this topic, it would be useful to analyze the influence of corruption indicators on the inflow of foreign direct investment to Ukraine, as well as the influence of human development of Ukrainians on the attractiveness of investments in the state, as well as to conduct a study of how important labor costs are strength in attracting FDI to Ukraine.

How FGTS Would Become an Efficient Defined Contribution Retirement Plan Investing in SeLFIES. A Solution Focused on Future Real Income

How FGTS Would Become an Efficient Defined Contribution Retirement Plan Investing in SeLFIES. A Solution Focused on Future Real Income

Odloženi porez na dobitak u multinacionalnim bankama - slučaj Hrvatske, Srbije i Slovenije

Deferred income tax is an important position in financial statements of banks. It is primarily a result of temporary differences between book and tax values of assets and liabilities. Subsidiaries of multinational banking groups that operate in Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia have to report on deferred tax in accordance with International Accounting Standard 12 - Income Taxes. This paper examined the practices related to deferred income tax in such banks. In this regard, there four banking groups were sampled (two Austrian and two Italian) that operate in three observed countries. Research results showed that net deferred tax assets/liabilities do not usually have materially significant share in total assets of banks, though there is statistically significant difference in the materiality between countries. In general, banks recognize deferred tax assets less after the Covid-19 pandemic, due to the growing uncertainty over achieving the future taxable income, though such reduction is not statistically significant. In addition, the sources of deferred income tax significantly vary between countries, though the valuation of financial assets is, in general, the most common source of deferred tax.

Socioeconomic Differences in North Carolina College Students’ Pathways Into STEM

Background/Context: The underrepresentation of students from lower socioeconomic status (LSES) backgrounds among college graduates with science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) degrees, and consequently in STEM occupations, is a concern with respect to reducing, perpetuating, or increasing social inequality. The loss of their talent and creativity also poses a threat to the future of the U.S. economy, scientific knowledge generation, and national security. This study uses two theoretical frameworks—bounded rationality and effectively maintained inequality (EMI)—to identify the pathways toward STEM for students from lower and higher SES backgrounds, given the well-documented differences in their family resources and opportunities to learn, amount of cultural capital, and risk aversions. Purpose: The study identifies factors related to LSES students’ odds of declaring and graduating with a STEM degree and tests whether those factors work in similar ways for students from higher socioeconomic groups. The study contributes to understanding the roots of the underrepresentation of LSES students in STEM majors and occupations. Research Design: We use a mixed-method sequential explanatory design that draws from two complementary sources of data, one quantitative and one qualitative. Using multilevel logit models, the quantitative data set explores how SES influences students’ choices regarding whether to pursue a STEM degree. The qualitative data set further explores the relationships found in the quantitative data specifically for the case of LSES students through analysis of in-depth interviews. Findings: Quantitative analysis finds that LSES students’ socioeconomic background is related to their reduced opportunities to learn and reduced information resources, lessening their adequate academic preparation for success in STEM majors. Qualitative data indicate that risk avoidance—specifically, perceptions of risk and ideas of future income stability—play an important role in LSES students’ decisions to major in STEM. In addition, LSES students possess insufficient data to make informed decisions while in high school regarding course selection that would better enable their pathways into STEM, and to navigate into college success. Conclusions: To foster equity in access to postsecondary educational resources, it is crucial to offer all students access to high-quality academic opportunities before enrolling in college. Furthermore, high schools must ensure that students have access to explicit information about college and what various majors entail. We advocate that all students should have information on all options available so they can make well-informed decisions that match their abilities and preferences. Students’ access to and preferences for certain majors should not be conditioned on their socioeconomic background.

Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S.

Future income distribution will affect energy demand and its interactions with various societal priorities. Most future model simulations assume a single average consumer and thus miss this important demand determinant. We quantify long-term implications of alternative future income distributions for state-level residential energy demand, investment, greenhouse gas, and pollutant emission patterns in the United States (U.S.) by incorporating income quintiles into the residential energy sector of the Global Change Analysis Model with 50-state disaggregation. We find that if the income distribution within each U.S. state becomes more egalitarian than present, what means that the difference on income between the richest and poorest decreases over time, residential energy demand could be 10% (4%–14% across states) higher in 2100. This increase of residential energy demand will directly reduce energy poverty, with a very modest increment on economywide CO2 emissions (1%–2%). On the other hand, if U.S. states transition to a less equitable income distribution than present, with the difference between richest and poorest increasing over time, residential energy demand could be 19% (12%–26% across states) lower. While this study focuses on a single sector, we conclude that to improve understanding of synergies and tradeoffs across multiple societal goals such as energy access, emissions, and investments, future model simulations should explicitly consider subregional income distribution impacts.

Emergency Liquidity Injections

This paper compares the effectiveness of different forms of emergency liquidity injections, including secured lending (repo), unsecured lending and securities purchases. The model features an endogenous banking crisis, funding and market liquidity interactions, and fire sale externalities. Injection policies are compared by their effects on ex ante incentives and on ex post outcomes. The model demonstrates that lending to banks via repo can curb fire selling of relatively illiquid securities that are accepted as collateral, due to binding collateral constraints. The mitigated securities price depression, relative to an unsecured lending policy, counteracts the effects of fire sale externalities. This reduces banks' losses on illiquid securities without incentivising more liquidity risk-taking. Under an unsecured or secured lending policy, the authority can charge 'penalty rates' to deter liquidity risk-taking, but to be credible, lending should be long term so that repayments are due after liquidity conditions improve. Otherwise, the repayments can cause further liquidity distress, compromising the policy objectives. Liquidity injections via securities purchases cannot credibly be penalising, because the policy does not require banks to commit future income.

Shocks to Future Income and (Lack of) Consumption-Smoothing: Evidence from the Abolition of the State Pension Partner-Supplement in the Netherlands

Shocks to Future Income and (Lack of) Consumption-Smoothing: Evidence from the Abolition of the State Pension Partner-Supplement in the Netherlands

Shocks to Future Income and (Lack of) Consumption-Smoothing: Evidence from the Abolition of the State Pension Partner-Supplement in the Netherlands

Shocks to Future Income and (Lack of) Consumption-Smoothing: Evidence from the Abolition of the State Pension Partner-Supplement in the Netherlands

Features of accounting of income and expenses of future periods in construction

The transformation of the international and Russian accounting systems necessitates the detection of the content of analytical accounting items for the purposes of internal audit and tax control. In this paper, the object of research is all stages and types of pre-design, design, production and operational work in construction. The subject of the study is such types of work of a construction company that are carried out in the current (reporting) period, but incoming and outgoing of cash flows are carried out in the future. The purpose of the study is to detect the content of income and expenses of future income and expenses for accounting purposes. The objectives of the study are: 1. The study of national and international accounting standards and tax legislation; 2. The study and review of legislative and regulatory acts of the subject of the study; 3. The formation of scientifically based research results. The research methodology is a theoretical and heuristic approach due to the extraspectual nature of scientific knowledge. The result of the study is an objective and scientifically reasoned presentation of items of income and expenses of future periods for accounting purposes.

An Agent-Based Model for Tertiary Educational Choices in Italy

Although the low level of tuition fees and the absence of other access barriers, Italy is characterized by low educational attainments at the university level. This work models the choice of young Italians to attend university or leave education and enter the labor market, by making use of an agent-based model that reproduces the Italian higher education and policy system. The aim is to analyze the determinants behind university enrollment decisions possibly causing the low level of attainment and explore three alternative scenarios that propose the expansion of financial support and the increase in the average income gap between skilled and unskilled individuals. The model implies that the individual preference to enroll at university depends upon (i) economic motivations, represented by the expectations on future income, which are formed through interaction within individuals’ social network; (ii) influence from peers; (iii) effort of obtaining a university degree. Results show that the model can reproduce observable features of the Italian system, and highlights low income levels and the following full resort to regional scholarships. Experimented scenarios show that policies expanding financial support to education are ineffective, while an increase in the gap between average income of skilled and unskilled workers leads to an increase in enrollment in university, signaling that labor market policies may be more effective than educational policies in raising the number of students in higher education.

Earning opportunities and informal payment as influencing factors in medical students\u2019 speciality choice

BackgroundThe Hungarian primary care system faces a severe shortage of family physicians. Medical students’ perceptions of family medicine need to be known and medical students need to be given appropriate and comprehensible information about this speciality. The expected future salary is an important factor in career choice. Most of the family doctors are self-employed and the practices have a corrected capitation-type financing. Although the majority of health care services are covered by social health insurance and are provided for the insured patients free of charge, informal payment is an existing phenomenon with different motivations and consequences. This study aimed to investigate medical students’ knowledge about their future earning opportunities and their attitudes towards informal payment.MethodsA cross sectional survey with a self-administered questionnaire was conducted. Each of the four Hungarian medical universities were represented by their medical students who attended family medicine lectures in person from December 2019 to April 2020. The students were asked about their career plans, about their estimations of current and ideal expected salaries and about the effect of expected income for the choice of specialisation. Their attitudes towards informal payment were assessed.ResultsResponse rate was 67.3% (N = 465/691). Almost two-thirds of the participants were women. Only 5% of the respondents (N = 23/462) plan to work as a family doctor in the future. The vast majority (91.9%) of the students had already thought about their future income. On a 10-point Likert scale (1 = ‘no influence’, 10 = ‘very big influence’) 76% answered that the expected future income exerts a considerable (≥5 Likert points) influence on their career choice in general. The mean of the ideal expected monthly income of the residents, GPs and other specialists was €1154 ± 648, €1696 ± 904 and €2174 ± 1594, respectively. The mean of the monthly income for a GP, as estimated by the studenst, was €1140 in rural and €1122 in urban settings. More than four-fifths of the students (N = 375/453) rejected the practice of informal payment.ConclusionsExpected salaray is one important aspect in the career choice of medical students, students wish to have more information on this topic. The reported ideal incomes are higher than those expected. This points to a relevant gap. However, most of the students do not accept informal payment as a possibility to close this gap. The expected and the ideal income differ from the real incomes of Hungarian GPs – this indicates the need of bringing objectoive information to the students to enhance attractivity of GP as a carer choice.

An Empirical Study on the Influence of Asset-backed Securitization on the Profitability and Liquidity of Commercial Banks of China

This paper uses the panel data of Chinese commercial banks to analyze the impact of credit asset-backed securitization on the profitability and liquidity of Chinese commercial banks. The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between asset-backed securitization and the profitability of commercial banks in China. The main reason for this phenomenon is that China’s credit asset-backed securitization is still in the pilot stage. The main purpose of asset-backed securitization is not to improve the level of profitability, but to broaden the financing channels, in addition, the high transaction cost of asset-backed securitization is also an important reason. However, there is no significant correlation between asset-backed securitization and the liquidity of commercial banks in China. The reason is that although asset-backed securitization can make the future income of banks cash in advance, considering the efficiency of capital use and the rationality of assets and liabilities, banks will use these funds to make new loans, which reduces the liquidity of banks.