Future Environmental Change Research Articles

Factors affecting spatiotemporal behaviour in the European brown hareLepus europaeus: a meta‐analysis

AbstractThe European brown hareLepus europaeusis the most widely distributed hare species of the world, being naturally present throughout Eurasia and introduced as a game species in most continents. Despite the importance of this lagomorph for both management and conservation, a quantitative summary of its spatiotemporal behaviour is still lacking.Taking advantage of 51 selected studies conducted throughout the native range of the hare and spanning the last 40 years, we used meta‐analytic approaches in order to: 1) investigate home range size in relation to ecological factors; 2) test preference across major habitat types; and 3) provide a quantitative synthesis of hare activity patterns.Temporally adjusted home range size of hare populations decreased with increasing cropland cover (cereal and non‐cereal crops), suggesting that home range size gets smaller with increasing food availability, and predicting that hare populations living in absence of crops would double their mean home range size compared to those inhabiting areas covered entirely by cropland. Hare populations where more males were sampled showed larger home ranges, in line with the polygynous mating system of this species.Hares preferred cropland and grassland over other habitats for foraging, thus selecting the two habitats characterised by the majority of trophic resources for this species. Yet, habitat types were used proportionally to their availability overall, except for the general avoidance of human settlements. Hares were mainly nocturnal, with the lowest activity during daytime, when activity was about one third of that at night, and showed moonlight avoidance, probably to limit encounters with nocturnal predators.Our work emphasises the importance of open habitats and especially cropland for this lagomorph, but also suggests some plasticity in the use of space and time by hares. Such plasticity may help this mammal to cope with future environmental changes, providing that landscape heterogeneity is maintained.

Eelgrass beds can mitigate local acidification and reduce oyster malformation risk in a subarctic lagoon, Japan: A three-dimensional ecosystem model study

It is well known that ocean acidification (OA) inhibits growth of marine calcifying organisms. Therefore, the adverse effects of acidification on marine ecosystems and aquaculture, such as oyster farming, are of concern. Since eelgrass beds in neritic areas have a high potential for carbon assimilation, this study focuses on local scale mitigation of OA effects. Using a three-dimensional lower-trophic system ecosystem model, we modeled nitrogen and carbon cycles, and the dynamics of carbonate parameters in a subarctic shallow lagoon and bay, where nitrogen availability limits the photosynthesis of primary producers. Simulation of the present conditions allowed reproduction of spatiotemporal variations in water quality and, by assuming future environmental changes quantitatively, revealed that the progress of OA significantly elevated the probability of shell malformation in juvenile oysters. The results represent the spatiotemporal variations in carbonate parameters inside and outside eelgrass beds and enable the evaluation of the alleviation effect on local acidification by the presence of a dense eelgrass bed. Our study shows that in the absence of the eelgrass bed scenario, the effect of OA on oysters became more remarkable. The simulations revealed that maintaining eelgrass beds is essential to mitigate the effects of acidification on oysters.

Reflections on the Prospective Professional Competency of Taiwan Public Health Nurses

Societal ageing, the rising prevalence of chronic diseases, and the COVID-19 pandemic have changed the global healthcare environment dramatically. These challenges have significantly burdened community medical and healthcare systems and complicated the work of public health nursing. As an important care provider on the frontlines of primary care, public health nurses (PHNs) must keep up with the current state of the medical environment and statistical data interpretation, scientific data translation, community resource sharing, and telehealth applications. These demands have greatly impacted the traditional routines and existing professional core competencies of PHNs. Discussions among 12 Taiwanese public healthcare experts and the definition of public health nursing capacity from World Health Organization were considered in this review. In addition to reflecting on social changes and the professional development of public health nursing, eight prospective recommendations were provided in this review to enhance the professional competence of PHNs and better prepare them for future changes in the health environment and primary healthcare. The suggestions provide a reference for updating the position statement of PHNs.

Phenotypic plasticity and genetic diversity elucidate rarity and vulnerability of an endangered riparian plant

AbstractEnvironmental change, accelerated by anthropogenic activities, threatens many species and can be especially challenging for rare species given their potentially limited capacity for migration and adaptation relative to more common species. The ability to acclimate via phenotypic plasticity could provide an important path to species persistence in the face of such change. We investigated the responses of an endangered plant species endemic to a highly dynamic riparian habitat in southeastern Tennessee, USA, and its most widespread congener to environmental change to elucidate their current statuses and future vulnerability. Specifically, we compared the population‐ and species‐level plasticity of rarePityopsis ruthiiand commonP. graminifoliato contrasting light, temperature, and water conditions in a growth chamber experiment to evaluate their potential to acclimate to environmental change. Contrary to our expectations,P. ruthiihad greater phenotypic plasticity than its common congener in response to both altered light and water availability. But this plasticity was not associated with increased fitness, suggesting that it was not adaptive. Concurrently, we genotyped these individuals at nine putatively neutral microsatellite loci to contrast genetic diversity across the range of each species. As expected,P. ruthiiexhibited reduced genetic diversity relative to its more common congener. Overall, our findings accord with the narrow range and current habitat specificity ofP. ruthii, especially its tolerance of highly variable water, and highlight its potential vulnerability to future environmental change.

Individual-based modeling of shelled pteropods

Shelled pteropods are cosmopolitan, free-swimming organisms of biogeochemical and commercial importance. They are widely used as sentinel species for the overall response of marine ecosystems to environmental stressors associated with climate change and changes in ocean chemistry. However, currently we are unable to project the effects of climate change on shelled pteropods at the population level, due to the missing spatio-temporal characterization of the response of pteropods to environmental stressors, and the limited information on the pteropod life history and life-cycle. In this study, we implement a shelled pteropod Individual-Based Model (IBM), i.e. we simulate a pteropod population as a set of discrete individuals over several generations, life-stages (eggs, larvae, juveniles and adults) and as a function of temperature, food availability, and aragonite saturation state. The model is able to provide an abundance signal that is consistent with the abundance signal measured in the temperate region. In addition, the modeled life-stage progression matches the reported size spectrum across the year, with two major spawning periods in spring and fall, and maturation in March and September. Furthermore, our IBM correctly predicts the abundance maxima of younger, smaller and potentially more susceptible life-stages in spring and winter. Thus, our model provides a tool for advancing our understanding of the response of pteropod populations to future environmental changes.

Diatoms and Their Microbiomes in Complex and Changing Polar Oceans.

Diatoms, a key group of polar marine microbes, support highly productive ocean ecosystems. Like all life on earth, diatoms do not live in isolation, and they are therefore under constant biotic and abiotic pressures which directly influence their evolution through natural selection. Despite their importance in polar ecosystems, polar diatoms are understudied compared to temperate species. The observed rapid change in the polar climate, especially warming, has created increased research interest to discover the underlying causes and potential consequences on single species to entire ecosystems. Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) technologies have greatly expanded our knowledge by revealing the molecular underpinnings of physiological adaptations to polar environmental conditions. Their genomes, transcriptomes, and proteomes together with the first eukaryotic meta-omics data of surface ocean polar microbiomes reflect the environmental pressures through adaptive responses such as the expansion of protein families over time as a consequence of selection. Polar regions and their microbiomes are inherently connected to climate cycles and their feedback loops. An integrated understanding built on “omics” resources centered around diatoms as key primary producers will enable us to reveal unifying concepts of microbial co-evolution and adaptation in polar oceans. This knowledge, which aims to relate past environmental changes to specific adaptations, will be required to improve climate prediction models for polar ecosystems because it provides a unifying framework of how interacting and co-evolving biological communities might respond to future environmental change.

Ecological consequences of large herbivore exclusion in an African savanna: 12 years of data from the UHURU experiment.

Diverse communities of large mammalian herbivores (LMH), once widespread, are now rare. LMH exert strong direct and indirect effects on community structure and ecosystem functions, and measuring these effects is important for testing ecological theory and for understanding past, current, and future environmental change. This in turn requires long-term experimental manipulations, owing to the slow and often nonlinear responses of populations and assemblages to LMH removal. Moreover, the effects of particular species or body-size classes within diverse LMH guilds are difficult to pinpoint, and the magnitude and even direction of these effects often depends on environmental context. Since 2008, we have maintained the Ungulate Herbivory Under Rainfall Uncertainty (UHURU) experiment, a series of size-selective LMH exclosures replicated across a rainfall/productivity gradient in a semiarid Kenyan savanna. The goals of the UHURU experiment are to measure the effects of removing successively smaller size classes of LMH (mimicking the process of size-biased extirpation) and to establish how these effects are shaped by spatial and temporal variation in rainfall. The UHURU experiment comprises three LMH-exclusion treatments and an unfenced control, applied to nine randomized blocks of contiguous 1-ha plots (n=36). The fenced treatments are MEGA (exclusion of megaherbivores, elephant and giraffe), MESO (exclusion of herbivores ≥40 kg), and TOTAL (exclusion of herbivores ≥5kg). Each block is replicated three times at three sites across the 20-km rainfall gradient, which has fluctuated over the course of the experiment. The first 5 years of data were published previously (Ecological Archives E095-064) and have been used in numerous studies. Since that publication, we have (1) continued to collect data following the original protocols, (2) improved the taxonomic resolution and accuracy of plant and small-mammal identifications, and (3) begun collecting several new data sets. Here, we present updated and extended raw data from the first 12 years of the UHURU experiment (2008-2019). Data include daily rainfall data throughout the experiment; annual surveys of understory plant communities; annual censuses of woody-plant communities; annual measurements of individually tagged woody plants; monthly monitoring of flowering and fruiting phenology; every-other-month small-mammal mark-recapture data; and quarterly large-mammal dung surveys. There are no copyright restrictions; notification of when and how data are used is appreciated and users of UHURU data should cite this data paper when using the data.

Species Diversity Regulates Ecological Strategy Spectra of Forest Vegetation Across Different Climatic Zones.

Ecological strategy is the tactics employed by species in adapting to abiotic and biotic conditions. The ecological strategy spectrum is defined as the relative proportion of species in different ecological strategy types within a community. Determinants of ecological strategy spectrum of plant community explored by most previous studies are about abiotic factors. Yet, the roles of biotic factors in driving variations of ecological strategy spectra of forest communities across different geographic regions remains unknown. In this study, we established 200 0.04-ha forest dynamics plots (FDPs) and measured three-leaf functional traits of tree and shrub species in four forest vegetation types across four climatic zones. Based on Grime’s competitor, stress-tolerator, ruderal (CSR) triangular framework, and the StrateFy method, we categorized species into four ecological strategy groups (i.e., C-, S-, Int-, and R-groups) and related the ecological spectra of the forests to three species diversity indices [i.e., species richness, Shannon-Wiener index, and stem density (stem abundance)]. Linear regression, redundancy analysis, and variance partition analysis were utilized for assessing the roles of species diversity in regulating ecological strategy spectra of forest communities across different climatic zones. We found that the proportion of species in the C- and Int-groups increased, while the proportion of species in the S-group decreased, with the increase of three indices of species diversity. Among the three species diversity indices, stem abundance played the most important role in driving variations in ecological strategy spectra of forests across different climatic zones. Our finding highlights the necessity of accounting for biotic factors, especially stem abundance, in modeling or predicting the geographical distributions of plant species with varied ecological adaptation strategies to future environmental changes.

Population Genetic Structure and Biodiversity Conservation of a Relict and Medicinal Subshrub Capparis spinosa in Arid Central Asia

As a Tertiary Tethyan relict, Capparis spinosa is a typical wind-preventing and sand-fixing deciduous subshrub in arid central Asia. Due to its medicinal and energy value, this species is at risk of potential threat from human overexploitation, habitat destruction and resource depletion. In this study, our purpose was to evaluate the conservation strategies of C. spinosa according to its genetic structure characteristics and genetic diversity pattern among 37 natural distributional populations. Based on genomic SNP data generated from dd-RAD sequencing, genetic diversity analysis, principal component analysis, maximum likelihood phylogenetic trees and ADMIXTURE clustering, the significant population structure and differentiation were explored. The results showed the following: (1) Six distinct lineages were identified corresponding to geographic locations, and various levels of genetic diversity existed among the lineages for the natural habitat heterogeneity or human interferences; (2) The lineage divergences were influenced by isolation by distances, vicariance and restricted gene flow under complex topographic and climatic conditions. Finally, for the preservation of the genetic integrity of C. spinosa, we suggest that conservation units should be established corresponding to different geographic groups, and that attention should be paid to isolated and peripheral populations that are experiencing biodiversity loss. Simultaneously, monitoring and reducing anthropogenic disturbances in addition to rationally and sustainably utilizing wild resources would be beneficial to guarantee population resilience and evolutionary potential of this xerophyte in response to future environmental changes.

The Extremes of Disturbance Reduce Functional Redundancy: Functional Trait Assessment of the Shallow Antarctic Benthos

Climate-driven changes in disturbance are a major threat to ecosystem Functional diversity. The selective mechanisms underlying ecosystem response to disturbance are far from universal and remain the subject of scientific debate. Ice scouring of the shallow Antarctic benthos is one of the largest disturbance gradients in the natural environment and thus provides an opportunity to investigate how disturbance gradients influence functional structure of a biological assemblage. The Western Antarctic Peninsula, in particular, is a hotspot of climate-driven environmental change. Addressing how this system might respond to species loss is critical. Previous surveys across the shallowest 100 m of the seabed, detected unimodal changes in diversity and a shift in assemblage composition in response to disturbance gradients. This study investigated how functional traits and associated functional diversity change across the depth gradient. Our results revealed that selective mechanisms, such as disturbance filtering and inter-species competition, reduce functional redundancy at the extremes of the disturbance gradient. Our study highlights areas of potential vulnerability to future environmental change due to low functional redundancy. Threatening the important negative (mitigating) feedbacks on climate change, through blue carbon, currently provided by Antarctic continental shelf benthic assemblages.

Rapid ice sheet response to deglacial and Holocene paleoenvironmental changes in eastern Prydz Bay, East Antarctica

Prydz Bay lies at the terminus of one of East Antarctica's largest glacial systems and is a key region for understanding the response of the ice sheet to past and future environmental changes. In this study, we explore the dynamics and paleo-geometry of the ice sheet in eastern Prydz Bay, using a combination of bathymetric features on the seafloor to delineate past flow patterns, and cosmogenic nuclide dating of glacial deposits on land to constrain ice sheet terminus chronologies. Large streamlined bedforms on the sea floor record the existence of a primary ice stream in Svenner Channel, collecting ice from multiple tributary ice streams and discharging into the main trunk stream of the Lambert Glacier-Amery Ice Shelf system in Prydz Channel. The location and orientation of the north-eastern tributary to this ice stream also provide evidence for a substantial independent ice dome on the outer shelf at Four Ladies Bank. Exposure of ice-free areas at outer Rauer Group and Vestfold Hills indicates that grounding line retreat across eastern Prydz Bay was largely complete by ∼14 ka BP, and the ice margin had retreated to within ∼1 km of its present position by ∼10 ka BP. Onshore moraines record periods of ice margin retreat during the middle (∼6 ka BP) and very late (∼0.5 ka BP) Holocene coinciding with local warm periods. Subsidence recorded in modern Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations suggests the regional ice sheet was smaller than at present in the period between the middle and very late Holocene advances. The unusually dynamic ice sheet behaviour in this area is attributed to the smooth, reverse-slope bed characteristics of eastern Prydz Bay, which enabled rapid retreat of the ice sheet margin several hundred kilometres during deglacial events.

Century-Long Homogenization of Algal Communities Is Accelerated by Nutrient Enrichment and Climate Warming in Lakes and Reservoirs of the North Temperate Zone.

Anthropogenic pressures can threaten lake and reservoir ecosystems, leading to harmful algal blooms that have become globally widespread. However, patterns of phytoplankton diversity change and community assembly over long-term scales remain unknown. Here, we explore biodiversity patterns in eukaryotic algal (EA) and cyanobacterial (CYA) communities over a century by sequencing DNA preserved in the sediment cores of seven lakes and reservoirs in the North Temperate Zone. Comparisons within lakes revealed temporal algal community homogenization in mesotrophic lakes, eutrophic lakes, and reservoirs over the last century but no systematic losses of α-diversity. Temporal homogenization of EA and CYA communities continued into the modern day probably due to time-lags related to historical legacies, even if lakes go through a eutrophication phase followed by a reoligotrophication phase. Further, algal community assembly in lakes and reservoirs was mediated by both deterministic and stochastic processes, while homogeneous selection played a relatively important role in recent decades due to intensified anthropogenic activities and climate warming. Overall, these results expand our understanding of global change effects on algal community diversity and succession in lakes and reservoirs that exhibit different successional trajectories while also providing a baseline framework to assess their potential responses to future environmental change.

Reef-rim structure and building history, Rangiroa, an uplifted Atoll, French Polynesia: The role of morphotectonics and extreme marine hazard events

Reconstructing the responses of low-lying, atoll-rim islands to future environmental changes due to global warming requires a robust knowledge of the building history of reef rims through time. In the northwest of Tuamotu Archipelago, atolls have experienced opposite vertical motions (uplift versus subsidence) in response to differential tectonic constraints undergone by the underlying oceanic crust. As a result, during Pleistocene high sea levels, some atolls remained emerged whereas others remained flooded. Based on two electrical resistivity tomography profiles across the northern rim-island of the uplifted Rangiroa Atoll and on U/Th dating of corals clasts collected from unconsolidated sand-rubble deposits within two wells through the same island area, the internal structure of the atoll-rim and its mode and timing of building are tentatively reconstructed. The irregularly shaped, upper boundary of the basal resistive unit is interpreted as residual, pinnacle-shaped reliefs of Miocene age. At the seaward rim side, the uppermost highly resistive layers, an about 5 m-thick, were assumed to be reef-related, partly consolidated material emplaced during the Holocene. Thicker resistive layers that infill cavities in the Miocene basement, in the central part of the atoll rim, refer to the fresh water lense in porous, more or less consolidated material (phosphorites?) presumably emplaced during the Mio-Pliocene. In northern Rangiroa, the age of the oldest coral clasts trapped into the atoll-rim islands ranges between about 11,000 and 8000 calendar years when sea level was approximately 60 to 20 m below its present position. This suggests that coral-clast supply from the adjacent forereef slopes was triggered by extreme wave-surge events (presumably, tsunamis generated by island flank failures). The earliest island initiation phase is thought to start by approximately 6000 cal. yr and to be achieved by about 3000 cal. yr. By constrast, on the nearby subsiding Takapoto Atoll, the rim island began to initiate not earlier than 2500 cal. yr. At Rangiroa, morphotectonics is assumed to have played a major role in controlling the internal rim architecture and, associated to extreme marine hazard events, to have promoted the earlier settlement of low-lying, rim islands through an earlier infilling of accommodation space as compared to nearby subsiding atolls.

A Late Holocene Stable Isotope and Carbon Accumulation Record from Teringi Bog in Southern Estonia

Radiocarbon-dated peat cores collected from an ombrotrophic bog in southern Estonia record shifting environmental conditions and carbon accumulation rates in northern Europe during the late Holocene. Modern observations indicate that the water balance of the peatland is highly influenced by changes in relative humidity, followed by temperature and precipitation. The modern δ18O and δ2H values of surface water suggest that the groundwater is an integration of several months of precipitation. There also appears to be little or no direct influence of surface evaporation on the water within the bog, suggesting that water loss is preferentially through transpiration and sub-surface flow. Bulk peat δ13C values exhibit a trend of higher values through the late Holocene, suggesting a pattern of overall increased surface wetness. The δ15N values were low from ~4130 to 3645 cal yr BP, suggesting drier conditions, followed by intermediate values until ~2995 cal yr BP. The δ15N values decrease again from ~2995 to 2470 cal yr BP, suggesting a return to drier conditions, followed by intermediate values until ~955 cal yr BP. The δ15N values were high, suggesting wetter conditions from ~955 to 250 cal yr BP, followed by intermediate values through the modern. Carbon accumulation rates were low to intermediate from ~4200 to 2470 cal yr BP, followed by intermediate-to-high values until ~1645 cal yr BP. Carbon accumulation rates were then low until ~585 cal yr BP, followed by intermediate values through the modern. The geochemical data, combined with observed changes in peat composition and regional proxies of temperature and water table fluctuations through the late Holocene, suggest that carbon accumulation rates were relatively low under dry and warm conditions, whereas accumulation was generally higher (up to ~80 g C m−2 yr−1) when the climate was wetter and/or colder. These findings further suggest that future environmental changes affecting the regional water balance and temperature will impact the potential for northern peatlands to capture and store carbon.

Coastal Mesozooplankton Assemblages during Spring Bloom in the Eastern Barents Sea.

Simple SummaryArctic coastal waters have been strongly influenced by climatic fluctuations during the past decades. Recent studies reported clear warming processes in the Barents Sea and adjacent waters. Plankton assemblages are good indicators of environmental changes, and their composition and production affect all components of pelagic ecosystems. Most of data on the zooplankton in Arctic seas were obtained during summer seasons, and little is known about zooplankton communities in other seasons. Spring is one of the crucial periods in the Arctic marine environment, as primary production may reach the annual maximum. To investigate a spring pattern of Arctic mesozooplankton, we performed a study in the eastern Barents Sea. This research is the first report on the spring coastal zooplankton near the Novaya Zemlya Archipelago. We revealed high diversity and abundance of zooplankton taxa. Environmental variability had a significant impact on the mesozooplankton assemblages, with geographical location and phytoplankton density being the most important. Our data may be useful for future investigations dealing with Arctic plankton communities during the era of global climatic changes.Mesozooplankton play an important role in Arctic shelf ecosystems as a trophic link and a key food source for many larval fish species. The distribution of mesozooplankton in the eastern Barents Sea was studied along a 500 nautical mile-long transect in May 2016 during the spring bloom. Mesozooplankton were sampled using a Juday net hauled from the surface to the bottom at 12 stations. We found good correspondence between the distribution of water masses and mesozooplankton assemblages. Mesozooplankton abundance (mean 73·103 individuals m−2) in Novaya Zemlya coastal water was dominated by Copepoda ova and nauplii, Thyssanoessa spp. nauplii and Oithona similis. Parasagitta elegans and Calanus finmarchicus comprised most of the total mesozooplankton biomass (mean 0.9 g dry mass m−2) in that water mass. A second assemblage (mean abundance 171·103 individuals m−2) was associated with the colder Barents Sea water, with Oithona similis, Copepoda nauplii, Fritillaria borealis and Cirripedia nauplii being the most numerous. In that water mass, C. finmarchicus, Metridia longa, Cirripedia nauplii and Calanus glacialis contributed most to the total biomass (mean 3 g dry mass m−2). The dominance of young stages of Copepoda and a high proportion of meroplankton were typical of spring mesozooplankton assemblages. The spatial distribution of mesozooplankton abundance and biomass was strongly correlated with latitude, longitude and chlorophyll a concentration, which together explained 10% of the total variance in mesozooplankton density. The present investigation is a baseline study for the assessment of the spring mesozooplankton assemblage in the eastern Barents Sea, and for an evaluation of the possible impact of future environmental changes on the Arctic shelf marine ecosystem.

Unraveling a century of global change impacts on winter bird distributions in the eastern United States.

One of the most pressing questions in ecology and conservation centers on disentangling the relative impacts of concurrent global change drivers, climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC), on biodiversity. Yet studies that evaluate the effects of both drivers on species' winter distributions remain scarce, hampering our ability to develop full-annual-cycle conservation strategies. Additionally, understanding how groups of species differentially respond to climate versus LULC change is vital for efforts to enhance bird community resilience to future environmental change. We analyzed long-term changes in winter occurrence of 89species across nine bird groups over a 90-year period within the eastern United States using Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data. We estimated variation in occurrence probability of each group as a function of spatial and temporal variation in winter climate (minimum temperature, cumulative precipitation) and LULC (proportion of group-specific and anthropogenic habitats within CBC circle). We reveal that spatial variation in bird occurrence probability was consistently explained by climate across all nine species groups. Conversely, LULC change explained more than twice the temporal variation (i.e., decadal changes) in bird occurrence probability than climate change on average across groups. This pattern was largely driven by habitat-constrained species (e.g., grassland birds, waterbirds), whereas decadal changes in occurrence probabilities of habitat-unconstrained species (e.g., forest passerines, mixed habitat birds) were equally explained by both climate and LULC changes over the last century. We conclude that climate has generally governed the winter occurrence of avifauna in space and time, while LULC change has played a pivotal role in driving distributional dynamics of species with limited and declining habitat availability. Effective land management will be critical for improving species' resilience to climate change, especially during a season of relative resource scarcity and critical energetic trade-offs.

Changing Ecological Conditions in the Marine Environment Generate Different Microbial Food Web Structures in a Repeatable Manner

The mechanisms responsible for the development of various structural and functional features of the microbial food web (MFW) and their dynamics at spatial and temporal scales, which are important for predicting their responses to future environmental changes, are largely unknown. More than 3000 datasets of environmental and microbial variables collected over a decade on a seasonal and large spatial scale in the Adriatic Sea were analyzed. The sets of environmental variables were classified into four clusters (representing different environmental states) using Neural Gas analysis and the differences in MFW structure between the clusters were analyzed. Different variants of MFW evolve in the different clusters in terms of the abundance of MFW components, their ratios, growth and grazing rates, predator preference in prey selection, the strength of predator-prey interaction, and the relative importance of top-down and bottom-up control. However, these clusters are neither spatially nor temporally fixed; rather, the area studied represents a mosaic of different environmental conditions that alternate from one state to another on a time scale. In each of the environmental states, a distinct structure of MFW develops that shows consistent and repeatable changes that strictly follow the switching in environmental conditions from one state to another.

The rise of grasslands is linked to atmospheric CO2 decline in the late Palaeogene

Grasslands are predicted to experience a major biodiversity change by the year 2100. A better understanding of how grasslands have responded to past environmental changes will help predict the outcome of current and future environmental changes. Here, we explore the relationship between past atmospheric CO2 and temperature fluctuations and the shifts in diversification rate of Poaceae (grasses) and Asteraceae (daisies), two exceptionally species-rich grassland families (~11,000 and ~23,000 species, respectively). To this end, we develop a Bayesian approach that simultaneously estimates diversification rates through time from time-calibrated phylogenies and correlations between environmental variables and diversification rates. Additionally, we present a statistical approach that incorporates the information of the distribution of missing species in the phylogeny. We find strong evidence supporting a simultaneous increase in diversification rates for grasses and daisies after the most significant reduction of atmospheric CO2 in the Cenozoic (~34 Mya). The fluctuations of paleo-temperatures, however, appear not to have had a significant relationship with the diversification of these grassland families. Overall, our results shed new light on our understanding of the origin of grasslands in the context of past environmental changes.

Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.

Climate change is a challenge for forests in the coming decades, with a major impact on species adaptation and distribution. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most vulnerable hotspots for biodiversity conservation under climate change in the world. This research aimed at studying a Mediterranean species well adapted to the region: the Arbutus unedo L. (strawberry tree). The MaxEnt, a presence-only species-distribution software, was used to model A. unedo’s environmental suitability. The current species potential distribution was accessed based on actual occurrences and selected environmental variables and subsequently projected for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), and the years 2050 and 2070, considering the two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results from the LGM projection suggest the presence of refugia in the core of the Mediterranean Basin, in particular the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The projections for the MH indicate increasing climatic suitability for the species and an eastward expansion, relatively to LGM. The predicted future environmental changes will most likely act as a catalyst for suitable habitat loss and a range shift towards the North is likely to occur.

Predicting habitat suitability of Caiman yacare and assessing the role of protected areas under current and future climate and deforestation models

Climate change and habitat degradation are recognized as serious threats for wildlife and an important aspects to be considered in conservation biology. However, little is known about how such environmental changes might impact crocodylians inhabiting the Neotropics and the effectiveness of Protected Areas (PAs) for long-term species conservation. To fill this gap, we used the Yacare Caiman (Caiman yacare) as a model to explore how climate change and habitat degradation might affect its distribution by 2050 and the effectiveness of current PAs for species conservation in response to future environmental changes. To this end, we estimated C. yacare suitable habitat using an ensemble modeling and consensus approach and assessed the species distribution variation inside and outside PAs as a consequence of two greenhouse emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways [RCPs] 4.5 and 8.5), and three General Circulation Models (GCMs; ACCESS1-0, CANESM2, and MRI-CGCM3) for 2050. We estimated the current suitable habitat for C. yacare to be 854,494 km2 divided across five countries: Brazil (396,476 km2), Bolivia (377,853 km2), Paraguay (38,288 km2), Argentina (35,423 km2), and Peru (6,451 km2). Of these countries, Peru is the only one that can be considered “potential” because the species has not been registered there yet. We found that currently only 26.8% (228,835 km2) of C. yacare suitable habitat is under any type of protection of the IUCN Protected Area Categories System, which is currently well preserved from habitat degradation with only 1.9% reduced due to deforestation. We predicted that on average 56.2% of the current species range might be lost because of climate change and habitat degradation and only 14.7% of its suitable range could be preserved based on the current PAs system. Based on our assessment, we showed that future climate change scenarios and habitat degradation processes will require the establishment of additional PAs as well as the implementation of sustainable management strategies emphasizing corridors and suitable habitat linkages. These integrative approaches can be implemented in several ecoregions including the Pantanal flooded savannas, Cerrado woodlands and savannas, Beni savanna, Chiquitano dry forests, and Amazon moist forests, which we predict will be relatively well-preserved under most of the future climate change scenarios and constituting as priority regions for the long-term conservation of the species and tropical biodiversity.