Future Energy Transition Research Articles

Reassessing the cost of hydropower for multi-function hydropower bases: A case study from Sichuan

Hydropower is an essential resource for the future clean energy transition, in which an accurate assessment of the hydropower cost is vital for promoting its share in the energy market. The purpose of this paper is to comprehensively reassess the cost of hydropower from a new perspective, in which the total static investment cost of a hydropower base is allocated among multiple functions. An allocation coefficient is proposed based on indicators of economic value and physical volume of multi-function hydropower bases. The economic value of each function is evaluated using approaches including the shadow project, market valuation, and emergy evaluation methods. Meanwhile, the physical volume is obtained through a multi-objective optimization of cascade reservoir operation considering an ecological constraint. Four main functions consisting of hydropower generation, flood control, agricultural irrigation, and residential water supply of hydropower bases in Sichuan are investigated. The results show that the allocation coefficients under both economic and physical indicators vary significantly among hydropower bases, and change slightly over the years. The average comprehensive allocation coefficient of hydropower is 57.26% (range from 29.83% to 77.41%), and the hydropower cost can be reduced by 59% from the current level. The reassessed hydropower cost can lay a solid foundation for market pricing. Attention should be paid to the multi-functionality characteristics of hydropower bases to achieve fair sharing of cost and benefit.

Ruptures of the Anthropocene: A crisis of justice

The Anthropocene and associated sense of crises, most prominently climate change, have opened up an urgency versus justice dilemma. While an epochal thinking drives the urgency, it is essential to attend to the ruptures illustrated by historical events like colonisation that shape the fabric of the Anthropocene and its impacts. Historical patterns of extraction and racialisation that underline the Anthropocene and climate change fit neatly into the schema for contemporary and future energy transitions shaped by an apolitical discourse of urgency and emergency. Attending to the historical ruptures helps root universal and apolitical urgency in justice for/from particular places and peoples and reframe ideas like climate emergency and climate crisis as more accurate climate justice emergency and climate justice crisis.

Toward a Super-COP? Timing, Temporality, and Rethinking World Climate Governance

Toward a Super-COP? Timing, Temporality, and Rethinking World Climate Governance

ISO 50001 Data Driven Methods for Energy Efficiency Analysis of Thermal Power Plants

This paper proposes an energy management system based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to be integrated with the standard ISO 50001 and aims to describe the definition and the enhancement of the energy baselines by means of artificial intelligence techniques applied and tested on the real electrical absorption data of the auxiliary units of different thermal power plants in Italy. Power plant optimized operations are important both for cost and energy performance reasons with related effects on the environment in the next future energy transition scenario. The improvement of the energy baselines consists in determining more accurate consumption monitoring models that are able to track inefficiencies and absorption drifts through data analytics and Artificial Intelligence. Starting from the analysis of the energy vectors at the production site level, we performed a multi-scale analysis to define the consumption at macro areas level and finally find the most relevant consumption units within the plants. A comparison of different ANNs applied to several real power plant data was performed to model complex plant architecture and optimize energy savings with respect to pre-set thresholds according to the ISO 50001 standard procedure. The energy baselines are determined through the analysis of the data available in the power plants’ Distributed Control System (DCS), and we can identify the consumption derived from the unit’s proper operation. Based on the reported numerical simulations, improved baselines have been reached up to a 5% threshold for different plant sub-units, thus representing a relevant overall saving in terms of alert threshold definition and related control efficiency: a potential saving of about 140 MWh throughout the considered three-year dataset was obtained taking into account a cooling tower sub-unit, representing a considerable economic benefit. The results obtained highlight the neural technique efficiency in defining more accurate energy baselines and represents a valuable tool for large energy plant asset management to face relevant energy drifts observed in the last years of plant operation.

Design and Analysis of a Novel Opposite Trapezoidal Flow Channel for Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell Stack

High efficiency, raw material availability, and compatibility with downstream systems will enable the Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell (SOEC) to play an important role in the future energy transition. However, the SOEC stack’s performance should be improved further by utilizing a novel flow-field design, and the channel shape is a key factor for enhancing gas transportation. To investigate the main effects of the novel channel design with fewer calculations, we assumed ideal gas laminar flows in the cathode channel. Furthermore, the cathode support layer thickness and electrical contact resistance are ignored. The conventional channel flow is validated first with mesh independence, and then the performance difference between the conventional and novel designs is analyzed using COMSOL Multiphysics. The process parameters such as velocity, pressure, current density, and mole concentration are compared between the conventional and novel designs, demonstrating that the novel design significantly improves electrolysis efficiency. Furthermore, it directly increased the concentration of product hydrogen in the novel channel. In addition to enhancing convection and diffusion of reaction gases in neighboring channels, the simple structure makes it easy to manufacture, which is advantageous for accelerating commercial use of the novel design.

Data-driven prediction and evaluation on future impact of energy transition policies in smart regions

To meet widely recognised carbon neutrality targets, over the last decade metropolitan regions around the world have implemented policies to promote the generation and use of sustainable energy. Nevertheless, there is an availability gap in formulating and evaluating these policies in a timely manner, since sustainable energy capacity and generation are dynamically determined by various factors along dimensions based on local economic prosperity and societal green ambitions. We develop a novel data-driven platform to predict and evaluate energy transition policies by applying an artificial neural network and a technology diffusion model. Using Singapore, London, and California as case studies of metropolitan regions at distinctive stages of energy transition, we show that in addition to forecasting renewable energy generation and capacity, the platform is particularly powerful in formulating future policy scenarios. We recommend global application of the proposed methodology to future sustainable energy transition in smart regions.

What oil and gas lawyers bring to the Energy Transition

Abstract This article argues that today’s oil and gas lawyers are very well prepared to become tomorrow’s energy lawyers. How the Energy Transition ultimately plays out in the coming decades is unknown. What is known is that the world will need immense new low and zero-carbon energy infrastructure: hydrogen, geothermal, carbon capture and sequestration, wind and solar. This article proposes seven areas where education and experience in oil and gas law prepares lawyers for advising companies, regulators, bankers and other stakeholders now investing in and regulating that future Energy Transition infrastructure. In each of these seven areas, this article shows how oil and gas legal and regulatory issues will have analogous challenges in low and zero-carbon infrastructure. Many of the same challenges that have faced oil and gas projects—capital flows, geopolitical risks, title concerns, creeping expropriation, land use and local opposition, evolving standards and maritime regulation—have analogues in Energy Transition infrastructure. Oil and gas lawyers, accordingly, come to the Energy Transition with a well-stocked toolkit. This article concludes by recognizing it is only a partial list of how working in oil and gas law prepares one for the Energy Transition.

The carbon reduction potential by improving technical efficiency from energy sources to final services in China: An extended Kaya identity analysis

Improving energy efficiency is one of the most reliable ways toward carbon neutrality. Most previous studies have focused on how to reduce energy intensity; however, it is not enough to provide an overview of how many carbon emissions can be reduced by technical efficiency improvements underlying energy systems. To fill this gap, this study extended the common Kaya identity to systematically evaluate the carbon reduction potential from technical efficiency improvements of various technical conversion components within the energy system at a granular level. The extended Kaya identity includes technical efficiency factors of electricity efficiency, conversion efficiency, and passive efficiency. It provides a comprehensive framework to evaluate current performance, historical contributions, and future potential of technical efficiency improvements. The case of China reveals that: Currently, only around 5% of energy sources were delivered to final services. By improving technical efficiency to high levels, 59% carbon reduction can be achieved during the future energy transition, even when the economy is still growing. In the past, electricity efficiency and conversion efficiency have significantly reduced carbon emissions. Future policymakers should pay more attention to passive systems to provide more final services, such as improved room insulation, streamlined vehicle designs, and smart energy management.

Life cycle assessment of a novel electrocatalytic process for the production of bulk chemical ethylene oxide from biogenic CO2

Carbon capture and utilization (CCU) technologies support future energy and climate transition goals by recycling carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The use of biogenic CO2 from renewable sources, is an avenue for the production of fully renewable products. Fossil-based materials can potentially be replaced in the long term while allowing for the use of so called “waste” streams. To foster the development of a circular economy more insights need to be gained on the life cycle impact of CCU technologies. This study analyzed a CCU process chain, with focus on the utilization of volatile renewable electricity and biogenic CO2. We performed a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment, evaluating various environmental impact categories (CML 2001 methodology) and primary energy demand (PED) with GaBi LCA software by sphera®. The targeted olefin is ethylene oxide (C2H4O), which is a crucial intermediate chemical for the production of various synthetic materials, such as polyethylene terephthalate (PET). As functional unit, 1 kg ethylene oxide was chosen. In the novel process at first ethylene (C2H4) and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) are produced from water and CO2via an electrocatalytic process (Power-to-X process). In a second step, the two intermediates are synthesized to ethylene oxide. The theoretical implementation of a medium-scale process under average European conditions was considered in 12 scenarios that differed in energy supply and CO2 source. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the influence of the energy and resource efficiencies of the production steps. The process was compared to its fossil benchmark, an existing conventional EO production chain. Concerning the global warming potential (GWP), negative emissions of up to −0.5 kg CO2 eq./kg product were calculated under optimized process conditions regarding energy and conversion efficiency and using biogenic CO2. In contrast, the GWP exceeded the fossil benchmark when the European grid mix was applied. The PED of 87 MJ/kg product under optimized conditions is comparable to that of other Power-to-X processes, but is high compared to fossil-based ethylene oxide. Based on the results we conclude that the energy efficiency of the electrocatalytic cell and renewable energy as input are the main levers to achieve a low environmental impact.

Scenario Analysis of Renewable Energy Development and Carbon Emission in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (BTH) is a key area with large carbon emissions in China and a demonstration area for renewable energy development, facing the dual test of energy structure transformation and the achievement of carbon peak and neutrality goals. This study analyzes the main influencing factors of carbon emissions based on Kaya’s identity, establishes a socio-economic-energy-carbon emission coupled with system dynamics (SD) model, and designs five scenarios to predict and compare the future trends of energy consumption, renewable energy development and carbon emissions in BTH, respectively. The results show that (1) under the baseline scenario, energy carbon emissions in BTH will peak around 2034, and the intermediate development scenario, the transition development scenario and the sustainable development scenario all show that the region can achieve the emission peak target around 2030. (2) The renewable energy output value of BTH will reach CNY 486.46 billion in 2050 under the baseline scenario, and the share of renewable energy consumption will exceed 50% under the sustainable development scenario. (3) Increasing energy tax regulation and scientific and technological investment and adopting more stringent policy constraints can guarantee the lowest emission intensity while maintaining the current social and economic development level. This study predicts the development of a renewable energy industry and carbon emissions in BTH under different scenarios and provides policy recommendations for the future energy transition in the region.

Modelling and analysis of a complete adsorption heat pump system

• An adsorption heat pump system for domestic water heating is proposed; • The physical model for the complete adsorption heat pump system is presented; • Detailed analysis of the temperature, pressure, and uptake in the adsorbent bed; • Time evolution of the system’s variables over five complete cycles; • Simulation of the whole adsorption heat pump system’s performance. Adsorption heat pumps (AHPs) can play a significant role in the future energy transition policies. However, the technology still needs to be matured and further research is still necessary. In this paper, the detailed model of a whole AHP system for domestic water heating is presented aiming to fulfil the literature gap for models that can simulate the dynamics of these complete heating systems, while maintaining a high level of modeling detail for the adsorbent bed. The model integrates all the main components of the AHP system, namely the evaporator, the condenser, the heater, the water reservoir and the adsorber. The adsorber is modeled by a 2D distributed parameter model with dynamic boundary conditions since the evaporator and condenser’s temperatures vary in a cycle as well as from cycle to cycle. The novel model obtains the detailed temperature, pressure, and uptake fields in the adsorbent bed when integrated in a complete AHP system. Real scale AHP systems should not be accurately modelled by lumped-parameter models due to the heterogeneities on the temperature, pressure, and uptake in the adsorbent bed. The time evolution of the system’s variables over five simulated cycles is obtained, as well as the coefficient of performance (COP) and specific heating power (SHP) of the whole system. For working conditions suitable for domestic water heating the system’s COP is 1.35 and the SHP is 79.3 W.kg −1 .s −1 .

Evaluation of levelized cost of hydrogen produced by wind electrolysis: Argentine and Italian production scenarios

Green hydrogen will play a key role in the future energy transition to achieve the main decarbonization goals. However, many large economies have limited renewable energy generation capacity, which leads to the identification of strategic sites for the global export of hydrogen. The aim of this work is to investigate the techno-economic feasibility of green hydrogen production in Argentine Patagonia with subsequent ship transport to Italy. The study includes the entire supply chain, from the production of hydrogen with renewable energy sources to its final use as a fuel for mobility in Italy. Different scenarios have been identified and compared, considering that the hydrogen production can take place directly in Italy or in Patagonia, followed by a transport to Italy. It was assumed that hydrogen is produced through PEM electrolyzers powered by wind energy. Various hydrogen transport and storage methods were analyzed to assess which is the most cost-effective solution. In addition, the influence of wind capacity factor and electricity cost on the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) was analyzed to provide an in-depth comparative assessment of the two production scenarios. Even considering the additional transport costs from Argentina to Italy, the scenario with hydrogen production in Patagonia was found to be more convenient than the production in Italy. This is due to the high wind potential in Patagonia, where the average wind capacity factor is about 50% compared to 25% in Italy. The minimum LCOH was obtained considering the storage and transport of hydrogen by means of liquid organic hydrogen carriers, with a final cost of 8.60 €/kgH2 and 11.17 €/kgH2 for the Argentine and Italian production scenarios, respectively. The results of the complete supply chains were analyzed step by step, and the reasons behind the most competitive option elucidated in detail.

Balancing cost and justice concerns in the energy transition: comparing coal phase-out policies in Germany and the UK

ABSTRACT Europe’s two largest economies – Germany and the UK – are phasing out coal from electricity production as part of European efforts to fulfil increased climate policy ambitions that require comprehensive energy system transitions. German and UK governments varied in the ways they sought support from diverse societal interests to make the transition socially acceptable and politically feasible. Drawing on 22 expert interviews and process-tracing methods, this paper compares and explains how political and economic institutional differences influenced efforts to balance energy transition concerns, like speed and cost-effectiveness with justice for companies, workers and communities most adversely affected by the transition. We find that the increasing attention to just transition perspectives after the Paris Agreement affected the design of coal phase-out processes in different ways in the two countries. Just transition concerns were given priority by policymakers in Germany, but more so if they overlapped with the interests of incumbents. In the end, politically powerful stakeholders dominated the policy outcome. In the UK, policymakers and stakeholders gave only weak attention to just transition concerns, mainly because coal’s market position had collapsed. Coal interests did not have strong representation in the decision-making process. But we find that just transition concerns are likely to gain more attention in the UK because a more challenging transition away from gas will take place over the next two decades. Key policy insights Policymakers must balance the objective of a fast decarbonization process against two other important concerns: cost-effectiveness and a just transition. Political-economic institutional design and capacity shape the extent to which just transition concerns are given weight in coal phase-out processes. State capacity for including just transition concerns in coal phase-out processes is higher when political and economic institutions strongly mediate government-stakeholder interaction in the policy process, and broad stakeholder participation increases the political feasibility and legitimacy of policy change. In Germany, the government’s attention to just transition concerns was strong because broad stakeholder representation in the formal process, and transition assistance policies to target potential losers in the transition, became crucial to enhance the legitimacy of coal phase-out policies. In the UK, cost-effectiveness trumped just transition concerns in the coal phase-out process, but just transition issues have increasing salience and will likely become pertinent in the upcoming gas phase-out process because more jobs and key economic interests are at stake. Our findings are relevant for policymakers in countries struggling with balancing speed, cost-effectiveness and just transition concerns in similar transition processes: phasing out coal, gas, or oil from their energy system. The findings may also inform future energy transition research.

Formic Acid to Power towards Low‐Carbon Economy

AbstractThe storage and utilization of low‐carbon electricity and decarbonization of transportation are essential components for the future energy transition into a low‐carbon economy. While hydrogen has been identified as a potential energy carrier, the lack of viable technologies for safe and efficient storage and transportation of H2 greatly limits its applications and deployment at scale. Formic acid (FA) is considered one of the promising H2 energy carriers because of its high volumetric H2 storage capacity of 53 g H2/L, and relatively low toxicity and flammability for convenient and low‐cost storage and transportation. FA can be employed to generate electricity either in direct FA fuel cells (FCs) or indirectly as an H2 source for hydrogen FCs. FA can enable large‐scale chemical H2 storage to eliminate energy‐intensive and expensive processes for H2 liquefaction and compression and thus to achieve higher efficiency and broader utilization. This perspective summarizes recent advances in catalyst development for selective dehydrogenation of FA and high‐pressure H2 production. The advantages and limitations of FA‐to‐power options are highlighted. Existing life cycle assessment (LCA) and economic analysis studies are reviewed to discuss the feasibility and future potential of FA as a fuel.

Intra-regional renewable energy resource variability in long-term energy system planning

This article presents a framework to capture intra-regional spatial variation of solar and wind resources’ potential for long-term energy system planning. Geographic Information System and statistical tools are utilized to quantify class and time slice wise capacity and generation potential at a geographical grid-cell level. This is incorporated in an energy system planning model with high spatial and temporal resolution. An advanced bottom-up energy system modeling framework is used to develop the model. The North-Indian power sector is considered as a case study with the analysis of renewable energy penetration and curtailment levels, technology capacity, and role of storage and inter-regional energy exchange for many future energy transition scenarios. Various model cases indicate system transition towards high renewable energy penetrated generation portfolio. Solar energy curtailment is prominent in high renewable scenarios. Coal-based power plants are important generation options unless drastic high CO2 price is considered. Storage systems work as energy arbitrage devices. Quantifying intra-regional renewable energy capacity and generation potential and incorporating them in a long-term planning model with many annual time slices is a contribution to the current modeling practices. Analysis of varied sensitivity cases adds value to long-term large-scale variable renewable energy integration planning approaches.

Implementing energy transition and SDGs targets throughout energy community schemes

Abstract Citizens are expected to play a great role in the future global energy transition, being able to give a decisive contribution to limit global warming to 1.5° and avoid the worst consequences. Empowering citizens is crucial and assigning them the role of prosumers in the new energy market is necessary to ensure a sustainable and fair pathway to the low-carbon energy transition. Creating energy communities (ECs) can also engage citizens by providing flexibility and ancillary services, reducing losses and curtailments in the grid. It also yields environmental and social benefits, activating virtuous circles in the local economy aligned with the SDGs of Agenda 2030. We illustrate the experience of an EC implementation, using GECO-Green Energy COmmunity project, as a case study. In particular, the in-depth qualitative analysis of the project from a social and technical perspective is provided. The GECO Project is active in the districts of Pilastro and Roveri, Bologna, Italy, being implemented by a consortium including the Energy and Sustainable Development Agency (AESS), the National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA) and the University of Bologna (UniBo). Our findings show the potential interconnections among the development of an ECs and SDGs, especially goals 7, 11, 12 and 13. Placing ECs and prosumers at the centre of the international debate may deliver a more sustainable paradigm in the energy sector, in line with the climate change needs and community approaches.

Repurposing metal containing wastes and mass-produced materials as electrocatalysts for water electrolysis

Recycling metal containing waste is an attractive option to generate water splitting electrocatalysts for green hydrogen production. This will help alleviate future pressure on endangered elements that are required for the future energy transition.

Beliefs and Networks: Mapping the Indian Climate Policy Discourse Surrounding the Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015

ABSTRACT The media represents a discursive site with actors trying to influence the discourse on a particular subject. The paper delves into an exploratory analysis of the policy discourse around climate change in India during the 2015 Paris Agreement by tapping into the data from the print media. Employing Discourse Network Analysis (DNA) and drawing theoretical insights from the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF), the paper aims to highlight the dominant policy beliefs and the prominent actors in the Indian climate policy sphere. The findings exhibit a firm agreement on the scientific reality of climate change, along with a continued emphasis on the historical responsibility of the developed countries. The transition to renewable energy is widely accepted, but coal phase-out and sustenance of nuclear power is a contentious issue. The study uncovers a consistent belief system underlying the climate change discourse in India and the challenges in the path towards future energy transition.

Networked learning to educate future energy transition professionals: results from a case study

ABSTRACT Society is in strong need to change the way in which energy is produced and consumed. To cope with this complex challenge, integration of knowledge from different disciplines is needed. This paper shows how an interdisciplinary educational approach called networked learning combined with sustainability transition theories can help groups of engineering students to address pressing societal challenges such as the energy transition. A series of 8 workshops was held with an interdisciplinary engineering student team of a University of Technology. Networked learning within the student team showed an ad-hoc character, mainly caused by shifting student constellations during workshops. Workshops focusing on short-term goals resulted in more concrete output. The team showed a high level of equality amongst members and actively reflected on organisational aspects of their learning process. Sustainability transitions concepts and theories that integrate multiple disciplinary perspectives further supported the learning process and helped to guide strategic decision making.

Perceptions of GHG emissions and renewable energy sources in Europe, Australia and the USA.

People’s sentiments and perceptions of greenhouse gas emission and renewable energy are important information to understand their reaction to the planned mitigation policy. Therefore, this research analyzes people’s perceptions of greenhouse gas emissions and their preferences for renewable energy resources using a sample of Twitter data. We first identify themes of discussion using semantic text similarity and network analysis. Next, we measure people’s interest in renewable energy resources based on the mentioned rate in Twitter and search interest in Google trends. Then, we measure people’s sentiment toward these resources and compare the interest with sentiments to identify opportunities for policy improvement. The results indicate a minor influence of governmental assemblies on Twitter discourses compared to a very high influence of two renewable energy providers amounts to more than 40% of the tweeting activities related to renewable energy. The search interest analysis shows a slight shift in people’s interest in favor of renewable energy. The interest in geothermal energy is decreasing while interest in biomass energy is increasing. The sentiment analysis shows that biomass energy has the highest positive sentiments while solar and wind energy have higher interest. Solar and wind energy are found to be the two most promising sources for the future energy transition. Our study implies that governments should practice a higher influence on promoting awareness of the environment and converging between people’s interests and feasible energy solutions. We also advocate Twitter as a source for collecting real-time data about social preferences for environmental policy input.