Future Ecosystem Services Research Articles

Potential for Reclamation of Abandoned Gas Wells to Restore Ecosystem Services in the Fayetteville Shale of Arkansas.

Unconventional oil and gas (UOG) drilling has expanded rapidly across the United States, including in the Fayetteville Shale formation in north-central Arkansas where drilling began in 2004. As one of the oldest regions of UOG activity in the United States, this area has experienced significant land-use changes, specifically development of natural habitat and agricultural land for gas infrastructure. In recent years, drilling of new wells has stopped and production has declined. By 2017, 1038 wells had ceased production and been abandoned, which makes them eligible for land reclamation. However, most of these sites (80%) have not been reclaimed and continue to cause losses in ecosystem services. If reclamation was performed on lands associated with abandoned infrastructure, we estimate more than $2 million USD annually in agricultural, timber, and carbon sequestration values would be gained. These benefits far outweigh the costs of reclamation, especially since the benefits accrue over time and reclamation is a short-term cost. Our estimates indicate a 2-4 year break-even time period when cumulative ecosystem services benefits will outweigh reclamation costs. We predicted a well-abandonment rate of 155 per year until 2050 when 98% of wells will be abandoned, which indicates great potential for future ecosystem services restoration. Thus, we recommend that Arkansans at the government and citizen level work to restore lands impacted by UOG development in the Fayetteville Shale region so that their value to landowners and society can be recovered, which will enhance long-term economic and environmental benefits.

Spatial and temporal variability of future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape

Sustaining ecosystem services requires enhanced understanding of their spatial–temporal dynamics and responses to drivers. To date, the majority of research has focused on snapshots of ecosystem services, and their spatial–temporal variability has seldom been studied. We aimed to address: (i) How is variability in ecosystem services partitioned among ‘space’ and ‘time’ components? (ii) Which ecosystem services are spatially/temporally coherent, and which are space–time incoherent? (iii) Are there consistent patterns in ecosystem service variability between urban- and rural-dominated landscapes? Biophysical modeling was used to quantify food, water, and biogeochemical-related services from 2011 to 2070 under future scenarios. Linear mixed-effects models and variance partitioning were used to analyze spatial and temporal variability. Food production, water quality and flood regulation services were overall more variable than climate regulation and freshwater supply. ‘Space’ contributed to a majority of variations across most services, highlighting dominant importance of location-specific factors for service supply. Significant space–time interactions existed for water quality and soil carbon storage, indicating interactive effects between location- and time-specific factors. Variation in the relative controls of ‘space’ vs. ‘time’ factors between urban- and rural-dominated subwatersheds suggests that targeting different key drivers is needed for successful management of ecosystem services in urban vs. rural landscapes. Our research reveals relative importance of underlying ‘space’ and ‘time’ controls for diverse ecosystem services. Our study presents a framework to investigate spatial–temporal variability of ecosystem services, and provides theoretical and practical implications for anticipating and managing the dynamics of future ecosystem services at the watershed scale.

Species-specific nature conservation prioritization (a combination of MaxEnt, Co$ting Nature and DINAMICA EGO modeling approaches)

The rapid process of land use and cover changes can be regarded as the most crucial human-induced factor, which is responsible for the wildlife habitats destruction. While focusing on habitat features of the keystone species with broad habitat requirements, it will be possible to provide nature conservation priority maps under different scenarios of landuse and land cover change for the future. In this study, an integrated dynamic model was developed to provide prioritized nature conservation maps for the future, relying on the ecosystem services while focusing on a keystone large carnivorous species based on the prediction of future landuse changes in Karaj district, Alborz Province, northwestern Iran. This study aimed to model the suitability of habitats for brown bears, classify the conservation priorities based on the ecosystem services, and simulate future changes of landuse or land cover to advise on the protection of biodiversity. Our results indicated that such a multi approached based modeling can better show the conservation needs and priorities of the lands for a proposed time in the future. In the case of the study area, Karaj district, we found that if the current pattern of land use and land cover change is going on continuously, we will miss significant parts of the critical habitats and their vital ecosystem services in the near future. Based on the results, The results represented the importance of adopting an integrated approach based on the combination of conservation of focal species (MaxEnt), ecosystem oriented (Co$ting Nature) method as well as applying a land use prediction model (DINAMICA EGO) to show the ability of protected areas in assuring wildlife and biodiversity reservoirs long term viability in future spatial planning.

Different climate scenarios alter dominance patterns among aquatic primary producers in temperate systems

AbstractIn a future climate change perspective, the interactions among different life‐forms of primary producers will likely be altered, leading to changes in the relative dominance among macrophytes, filamentous, and planktonic algae. In order to improve the possibilities to forecast future ecosystem services and function, we therefore conducted a long‐term mesocosm study where primary producers were exposed to different climate scenarios, including both a mean increase in temperature (4°C) and a similar energy input, but delivered as “heat waves” (fluctuations 0–8°C above ambient). We show that in shallow systems, future climate change scenarios will likely lead to higher total macrophyte biomasses, but also to considerable alterations in the macrophyte community composition. The biomass of filamentous algae (Cladophora) showed no significant difference among treatments, although effect size analyses identified a slight increase at heated conditions. We also show that future climate change will not necessarily lead to more phytoplankton blooms, although a considerable alteration in phytoplankton community composition is to be expected, with a dominance of cyanobacteria and Cryptophytes, whereas Chlorophyceae and diatoms will likely play a less pronounced role than at present. In a broader context, we conclude that the total biomass of macrophytes will likely increase in shallow areas, whereas phytoplankton may not show any strong changes in biomass in a future climate change scenario. Instead, the major changes among primary producers will likely be mirrored in a considerably different species composition than at present.

Land use and land cover changes impacts in the harbour city of Thoothukudi

Population growth directly disturbs the environment for development, suburbanisation, and social changes. Urban growth leads to shrinking agriculture and forest land and has substantial impact on the land and coastal ecosystem. Regular studies on urban sprawl growth modelling and analysis are needed to provide better urban growth and ensure sustainable urban development. The city of Thoothukudi, located in the states of Tamil Nadu, India, has faced rapid population growth and urban extension over the past three decades. Geospatial tools and satellite imagery were employed to investigate previous changes and growth in the urban landscape. Random forest classification was used to study sustainability and urban growth in Thoothukudi city's administrative border and the suburbs within a 15 km buffer zone. The result shows that Thoothukudi experienced rapid urban growth, increasing by 68.42% between 1997 and 2017. The outcome of this study will assist government officials and urban planners to provide a better strategy to reduce the environmental and social consequences, facilitate the development of the city in a sustainable way and protect the ecosystem services in the near future.

Past and future ecosystem service trade-offs in Poyang Lake Basin under different land use policy scenarios

Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China and is an important wetland in the world. The scientific assessment of ecosystem service trade-offs in Poyang Lake Basin is of great significance for maintaining regional ecological balance and global biodiversity. This study uses land use as the main data source and the “equivalent factor method” to estimate the ecosystem service value of the Poyang Lake Basin from 1990 to 2015; the study also analyzes the trade-off synergy among ecosystem services. On this basis, land use information was simulated under three scenarios: planning scenario (government policy-oriented), development scenario (economic benefit-oriented), and protection scenario (ecological protection-oriented). The trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services under different scenarios were evaluated. The results demonstrate that the ecosystem service value for the entire basin steadily increased from 1990 to 2015. The relationships among ecosystem services in the basin were mainly synergistic, and there were few trade-offs. Among the three simulation scenarios, the ecosystem service value was the highest and the trade-offs among ecosystem services were the lowest under the protection scenario, the ecosystem service value was the lowest and the trade-offs among ecosystem services were the highest under the development scenario, and the trade-offs under the planning scenario were between the values of the protection scenario and the development scenario. From the perspective of maximizing the value of ecosystem services and minimizing trade-offs in ecosystem services, the protection scenario is the optimal scenario among the three scenarios.

Knowledge sharing, problem solving and professional development in a Scottish Ecosystem Services Community of Practice

The ecosystem services framework has now been embodied in policy and practice, creating the need for governance structures that allow science, policy and practice to come together and facilitate shared learning. We describe five years of progress in developing an Ecosystem Services Community of Practice in Scotland, which brings together over 600 individuals from diverse constituencies to share experiences and learn from each other. We consider the ‘community’ and ‘practice’ aspects to demonstrate the benefits of establishing an Ecosystem Services Community (ESCom). We also demonstrate how the journey involved in the creation and continuing evolution of ESCom has proved valuable to researchers, policy-makers, practitioners and students and as such has contributed to social learning. We reflect on challenges, given the voluntary nature, absence of formal institutional support and emergence of initiatives focusing on overlapping topics. Based on our experience, we provide ten recommendations to help future ecosystem services communities of practice.

Diné kinship as a framework for conserving native tree species in climate change.

Climate change affects all ecosystems but despite increasing recognition for the needs to integrate Indigenous knowledge with modern climate science, the epistemological differences between the two make it challenging. In this study, we present how Indigenous belief and knowledge system can frame the application of a modeling tool (Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator). We focus on managing forest ecosystem services of the Diné (Navajo) Nation as a case study. Most Diné tribal members depend directly on the land for their livelihoods and cultural traditions. The forest plays a vital role in Diné livelihoods through social, cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic factors. We simulated forest dynamics over time under alternative climate change scenarios and management strategies to identify forest management strategies that will maintain future ecosystem services. We initialized the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator model with data from permanent plots and site-specific growth models under multiple management systems (no-management, thinning, burning, and assisted migration planting) and different climate scenarios (no-climate-change, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0). Projections of climate change show average losses of basal area by over 65% by 2105, a shift in tree species composition to drier-adapted species, and a decrease in species diversity. While substantial forest loss was inevitable under the warming climate scenarios, the modeling framework allowed us to evaluate the management treatments, including planting, for conserving multiple tree species in mixed conifer forests, thus providing an anchor for biodiversity. We presented the modeling results and management implications and discuss how they can complement Diné kinship concepts. Our approach is a useful step for framing modern science with Indigenous Knowledge and for developing improved strategies to sustain natural resources and livelihoods.

Plant phylogenetic diversity stabilizes large‐scale ecosystem productivity

AbstractAimGlobal carbon cycle models do not incorporate the stabilizing effect of biodiversity on productivity despite this phenomenon has been widely described in several local scale manipulative experiments. The reason is a lack of evidence supporting the importance of biodiversity on spatial scales at which climate models are built. Here, we test the hypothesis that diversity enhances productivity stability at a large scale.LocationSouth American dryland known as Caatinga (~830,000 km2).Time period2001–2010.Major taxa studiedWoody plants.MethodsWe used the enhanced vegetation index of Caatinga vegetation remnants, from 2001 to 2010, to calculate vegetation productivity stability across years. We used occurrence records of 606 woody species from floristic surveys to derive species richness and phylogenetic diversity at ~5 km and ~55 km (0.5°) resolution. Climate data were obtained from global databases.ResultsPlant phylogenetic diversity has a strong positive correlation with productivity stability even after controlling for several climatic variables, such as rainfall, temperature and cloudiness, at both resolutions. Species richness was not significant when climatic variables were included.Main conclusionsThis result expands by several orders of magnitude the spatial scale of the evidence that biodiversity strengths the resilience of key ecosystem functions. We highlight that, by incorporating plant phylogenetic diversity, regional and global climate models can generate more accurate predictions about future ecosystem functioning and services that are critical to humankind.

Integrating fire-scar, charcoal and fungal spore data to study fire events in the boreal forest of northern Europe

Fire is a major disturbance agent in the boreal forest, influencing many current and future ecosystem conditions and services. Surprisingly few studies have attempted to improve the accuracy of fire-event reconstructions even though the estimates of the occurrence of past fires may be biased, influencing the reliability of the models employing those data (e.g. C stock, cycle). This study aimed to demonstrate how three types of fire proxies – fire scars from tree rings, sedimentary charcoal and, for the first time in this context, fungal spores of Neurospora – can be integrated to achieve a better understanding of past fire dynamics. By studying charcoal and Neurospora from sediment cores from forest hollows, and the fire scars from tree rings in their surroundings in the southern Fennoscandian and western Russian boreal forest, we produced composite fire-event data sets and fire-event frequencies, and estimated fire return intervals. Our estimates show that the fire return interval varied between 126 and 237 years during the last 11,000 years. The highest fire frequency during the 18th–19th century can be associated with the anthropogenic influence. Importantly, statistical tests revealed a positive relationship between other fire event indicators and Neurospora occurrence allowing us to pinpoint past fire events at times when the sedimentary charcoal was absent, but Neurospora were abundant. We demonstrated how fire proxies with different temporal resolution can be linked, providing potential improvements in the reliability of fire history reconstructions from multiple proxies.

Spatio-temporal evolution scenarios and the coupling analysis of ecosystem services with land use change in China

Ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand are affected by changes in land use and the supply of specific ecosystem services for human consumption, respectively. Future spatio-temporal dynamics and their coupling relations with land use in China have not been well analysed. In this study, based on future land use scenarios of Li's database, ES supply, demand and balance (supply minus demand) were revealed utilizing land use and land cover (LULC) matrix model in China in 2010, 2050 and 2100. The results showed that ES supply, demand and balance had great spatial and temporal variations under different scenarios at national and provincial scales. Higher population and higher urban expansion scenarios will lead to a significant decreasing in the balance values of different categories and total ESs in most provinces. The ecological sensitivity index was calculated to indicate the impact of land use intensity on ecosystem services. The results showed that the sensitivity levels in approximately 90% of provinces were low for all the scenarios, as only Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangxi and Liaoning in 2050 and Gansu in 2100 were extremely sensitive to changes in supply, while only provinces in the central-eastern regions were sensitive with obvious differences from the demand. The coupling coordination analysis between land use intensity and ES balance was applied to identify the provinces with low-level coordination in land use and ES management. The results showed that the coordination change in most provinces remained stable under four scenarios. However, some provinces displayed an improving trend from low to moderate coordination or from moderate to high coordination and a degrading trend from moderate to low coordination or from high to moderate coordination from 2010 to 2100. This study contributes to exploring the effect of land use on ecosystem service evolution, thereby providing credible guidance for future land and ES management.

What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape?

Forest ecosystems provide a wide variety of ecosystem services to society. In harsh mountain environments, the regulating services of forests are of particular importance. Managing mountain forests for regulating services is a cost- and labor intensive endeavor. Yet, also unmanaged forests regulate the environment. In the context of evidence-based decision making it is thus important to scrutinize if current management recommendations improve the supply of regulating ecosystem services over unmanaged development trajectories. A further issue complicating decision making in the context of regulating ecosystem services is their high sensitivity to climate change. Climate-mediated increases in natural disturbances, for instance, could strongly reduce the supply of regulating services from forests in the future. Given the profound environmental changes expected for the coming decades it remains unclear whether forest management will still be able to significantly control the future trajectories of mountain forest development, or whether the management effect will be superseded by a much stronger climate and disturbance effect. Here, our objectives were (i) to quantify the future regulating service supply from a 6456 ha landscape in the Stubai valley in Tyrol, Austria, and (ii) to assess the relative importance of management, climate, and natural disturbances on the future supply of regulating ecosystem services. We focused our analysis on climate regulation, water regulation, and erosion regulation, and used the landscape simulation model iLand to quantify their development under different climate scenarios and management strategies. Our results show that unmanaged forests are efficient in providing regulating ecosystem services. Both climate regulation and erosion regulation were higher in unmanaged systems compared to managed systems, while water regulation was slightly enhanced by management. Overall, direct effects of climate change had a stronger influence on the future supply of regulating services than management and natural disturbances. The ability of management to control ecosystem service supply decreased sharply with the severity of future climate change. This finding highlights that forest management could be severely stymied in the future if climate change continues to proceed at its current rate. An improved quantitative understanding of the drivers of future ecosystem service supply is needed to more effectively combine targeted management efforts and natural ecosystem dynamics towards sustaining the benefits society derives from forests in a rapidly changing world.

Afforestation as a real option with joint production of environmental services

Real option applications in conservation have showed that with irreversibility and uncertainty about the value of preservation decisions may change. More specifically, returns must be high enough to also pay out the value of waiting if conversion into more intensive land uses is to become optimal. However, many environmental policies today focus on nature restoration, where conversion has previously taken place. In this study, we therefore reverse the problem and ask when to afforest productive agricultural land, when we face uncertainty about the value of ecosystem services delivered by afforestation. Furthermore, projects such as afforestation are often associated with joint production of forest products and environmental goods, like biodiversity, hunting, groundwater production, carbon storage, recreation etc. Thus, we extend state-of-the-art models to handle two additive ecosystem services, which both are uncertain and may be correlated. The joint production aspect increases the value of conversion, the stopping value, and hence the incentives to afforest. Increasing uncertainty decreases this incentive, as expected. However, contrary to the existing literature evaluating exclusive options, less than perfect correlation between the values of future ecosystem services decreases the value of the real option and increases the set of states, where afforestation is the preferred decision. This causes afforestation to be attractive for a wider set of states of the world than otherwise and has implications where joint production is feasible. We discuss these findings and the potential application of this analysis for handling real options with joint production in other research domains.

Modelling past, present and future Ecosystem Services supply in a protected floodplain under land use and climate changes

The understanding of protection initiatives’ effects on the delivery of Ecosystem Services (ESs) is of paramount importance to attain sustainable management in Protected Areas (PAs). Protected floodplains provide important ESs to local populations such as water flow regulation and climate regulation through carbon storage. This study investigates the effects of biodiversity protection initiatives (i.e. declaration of Protected Areas – PAs) and the related spatio-temporal land use/land cover (LULC) changes on ecosystem services (ESs) in the Nature Reserve of Paul do Boquilobo – NRPB (Central Portugal). Special focus was made on climate mitigation (i.e. carbon storage and sequestration) and water-related (flood mitigation, water regulation and supply) ESs. The analysis was performed using InVEST model. Three dates of past LULC conditions were considered in the analysis (1967, 1990 and 2015). Moreover, two future alternative LULC scenarios for 2050 were designed (a “Business”- BUS and a “Naturalization”- NAT scenario). The BUS scenario considers a LULC distribution towards high productive agricultural systems, considering only a restricted central core of natural areas, while the NAT scenario considers full coverage of natural areas. The two future extreme LULC scenarios were analyzed considering both no climate change and climate change effects on water-related services based on the pessimistic rcp8.5 climatic scenario. The results showed that PA declaration of NRPB after 1980 increased carbon storage-sequestration and flood mitigation (higher water storage, lower recharge and runoff). The analysis of future LULC scenarios demonstrated that the complete renaturing in combination with climate change (reduction of precipitation, increase of temperature) may lead to severe reduction of recharge and runoff. These results indicate that conflicts may appear between specific water regulation services by the application of PA initiatives in places where groundwater resources are limited or minimum ecological flows in surface waters are difficult to be preserved.

Present and future ecosystem services of trees in the Bronx, NY

Trees provide ecosystem services such as air pollutant removal, carbon storage and sequestration, urban heat island reduction, stormwater runoff reduction as well as other socio-economic benefits. Large-scale tree plantings are occurring in many cities to increase tree canopy coverage as well as the health, economic and environmental benefits that come with trees. Thus, there is a need to assess the extent to which trees provide these ecosystem services, where services are realized, and most importantly to improve methods of determining future planting locations. Using a new spatially distributed implementation of the i-Tree suite of ecosystem service models and mapping tools, we estimate the current and future ecosystem services and benefits of a recent tree planting initiative within each census block group of the Bronx, NY for 2010 and for three 2030 tree cover scenarios (assuming no tree mortality, 4% and 8% annual mortality). Land cover and tree canopy estimates for 2010 are derived from a high-resolution land cover dataset. A grow-out scenario based on urban tree database information and allometric equations is used to predict future canopy cover. Change analysis is carried out at the census block group level to determine the magnitude and direction of change for each service and benefit over time. The monetary value of trees in the Bronx in 2010 is estimated to be $37.6 million, and this value is estimated to range from $40.7 million to $43.9 million in 2030 if the current canopy is maintained and newly planted trees grow to maturity.

Socio-Cultural Values of Ecosystem Services from Oak Forests in the Eastern Himalaya

Identification and assessment of socio-cultural values of ecosystem services are increasingly important for the planning and management of forest resources. Key information necessary is how different forest user groups perceive and prioritize different ecosystem services based on their local setting. We assessed the socio-cultural values of ecosystem services of high-altitude oak forests in Western Bhutan using participatory approaches with two important forest users: local communities and forest experts. We found that these forests serve as a pool of 22 ecosystem services under four MEA categories of provisioning (9), regulating (8), supporting (2), and cultural (3) services. Fresh water was unanimously identified as the most valuable service, as well as the most vulnerable, by both the groups. The priorities of local communities inclined towards provisioning and cultural services due to their dependence on these services for their livelihood and wellbeing. Forest experts’ priorities were more evenly spread over three categories of services: provisioning, regulating, and supporting services, reflecting their broader interest in resource management, biodiversity conservation, and climate change mitigation. Several regulating and supporting services were not easily identified by many villagers, suggesting that bridging the priorities of local interests with broader national forestry goals may require public partnerships and integrated decision-making about the entire suite of ecosystem services. Several management interventions proposed by the groups were presented for consideration by local users, scientists, and policy makers. For all ongoing and future ecosystem service assessments, we recommend the integration of socio-cultural values with biophysical and monetary assessments to fully value the benefits from the high-altitude oak forests.

Ecosystem Services Related to Carbon Cycling - Modeling Present and Future Impacts in Boreal Forests.

Forests regulate climate, as carbon, water and nutrient fluxes are modified by physiological processes of vegetation and soil. Forests also provide renewable raw material, food, and recreational possibilities. Rapid climate warming projected for the boreal zone may change the provision of these ecosystem services. We demonstrate model based estimates of present and future ecosystem services related to carbon cycling of boreal forests. The services were derived from biophysical variables calculated by two dynamic models. Future changes in the biophysical variables were driven by climate change scenarios obtained as results of a sample of global climate models downscaled for Finland, assuming three future pathways of radiative forcing. We introduce continuous monitoring on phenology to be used in model parametrization through a webcam network with automated image processing features. In our analysis, climate change impacts on key boreal forest ecosystem services are both beneficial and detrimental. Our results indicate an increase in annual forest growth of about 60% and an increase in annual carbon sink of roughly 40% from the reference period (1981–2010) to the end of the century. The vegetation active period was projected to start about 3 weeks earlier and end ten days later by the end of the century compared to currently. We found a risk for increasing drought, and a decrease in the number of soil frost days. Our results show a considerable uncertainty in future provision of boreal forest ecosystem services.

Which ecosystems provide which services? A meta-analysis of nine selected ecosystem services assessments

For ecosystem measurement frameworks to be accepted, operationalised and implemented by diverse international communities, clear and agreeable concepts and classifications are essential. This paper analyses and develops two foundational typology challenges within ecosystem measurement: the classification of ecosystems and the classification of their services. Our aim is to determine if there is sufficient consensus to ascertain “Which ecosystems provide which services?” for standardised ecosystem accounting. This paper first compares classifications used in nine selected ecosystem assessments as input studies that make value statements about multiple ecosystems providing multiple ecosystem services. Given that these nine studies do not use identical concepts, classifications and terminologies, we develop “supersets” that can accommodate the diversity of classifications used in these input studies. Each input study is then corresponded to these new supersets. On the basis of this analysis, substantial consensus was found that some ecosystems are more likely to provide certain services than others are. However, for several ecosystem types, there was little or no consensus on which services they provide. Linkages for which there is consensus can serve as a checklist for future ecosystem services assessments. Both the framework of the supersets and the correspondence and visual methods developed will be useful for integrating information at different scales (for example, linkages from local, ecosystem-specific and ecosystem services-specific studies). This paper also provides guidance to future ecosystem services assessments to use, test and extend the current classifications of ecosystems and ecosystem services.

Valuation of natural capital under uncertain substitutability

Natural capital is complex to value notably because of the high uncertainties surrounding the substitutability of its future ecosystem services. We examine a Lucas economy in which a consumption good is produced by combining different inputs, one of them being an ecosystem service that is partially substitutable with other inputs. The growth rate of these inputs and the elasticity of substitution evolve in a stochastic way. We characterize the socially efficient ecological discount rates that should be used to value future ecosystem services at different time horizons. We show that the inverse of the elasticity of substitution can be interpreted as the CCAPM beta of natural capital. We also show that any increase in risk of this beta reduces the ecological discount rate. If our collective beliefs about the elasticity of substitution of ecosystem services are Gaussian, the ecological discount rates go to minus infinity for finite maturities. In that case, a marginal increase in natural capital has an infinite value. We provide a realistic calibration of the model that is coherent with observed asset prices by using the model of extreme events of Barro (2006). The bliss maturity for infinite discount factors is less than 100 years in this calibration.

Toward development of ecosystem asset accounts at the national level

ABSTRACT Ecosystem accounting has become one of the key components in the revision of international statistical standards. Expansion of the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting for ecosystem services follows the rapid progress of science in this area as well as expanding applications to sustainability challenges. In this contribution, we discuss approaches to accounting of ecosystem assets as a natural capital basis that is critical for ecosystem service delivery. Based on examples from the Czech Republic, a Central European country, we illustrate the construction of ecosystem extent accounts based on the methodology of Land and Ecosystem Accounting. This analysis is complemented by monetary ecosystem asset accounting through quantification of the present value of future ecosystem service flows. Ecosystem condition is represented by the Mean Species Abundance indicator, which gauges the direction of ecosystem naturalness. Based on the demonstration of approaches to ecosystem asset accounting, we discuss selected aspects of ecosystem condition measurements, valuation, and policy implications of ecosystem asset accounting at the national level.