Future Ecosystem Services Research Articles

Modeling present and future ecosystem services and environmental justice within an urban-coastal watershed

Globally, urban-coastal areas are expected to experience substantial landscape shifts as a result of climate change induced sea level rise. Such changes will impact valuable ecosystem services. We employed sea level rise projections and land cover change mapping to develop a model which quantified present-day carbon sequestration, aboveground carbon storage, and belowground carbon storage ecosystem services and predicted the impact of sea level rise and accretion through 2100 on future ecosystem services in the urban-coastal Jamaica Bay, New York (USA) watershed. Our model predicted that future carbon sequestration, aboveground carbon storage, and belowground carbon storage potential in our watershed will be significantly impacted in wetlands and natural coastal-fringe habitat and have losses up to 0.16%, 15%, and 51%, respectively. We paired our present-day ecosystem services model results with data on socio-economic need (access to open space and poverty level of each census tract in the watershed) and used multivariate clustering analysis to identify clusters in which planning and restoration may help to address issues of ecological conservation and environmental justice. Our work addresses the need for better understanding of urban-coastal ecosystem service flows and the potential impact of future landscape change on these services. Our results provide support to increase coastal resilience through informed design, planning, and management of these ecologically and socially significant landscapes.

Coastal ecosystem service in response to past and future land use and land cover change dynamics in the Yangtze river estuary

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are increasingly threatening estuarine and coastal zones. These effects lead to complex positive and negative feedback among sustainable development pillars of human, society, economy and environment according to the integrated sustainability perspective. Only limited studies have calculated comprehensive impact assessments of land conversions between land and sea, invasive species expansion, and inundation impacts on natural wetlands under future scenarios. To fill-in this research gap, this study aims to conduct a long-term temporal analysis (1960–2015) of land use and land cover change (LULC), and future ecosystem service value (ESV) loss for intertidal wetlands predicted in the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE). The results show that, over recent decades, impervious constructed areas and Spartina alterniflora-covered saltmarsh have increased to 10.7% and 2.61%, respectively, whereas native species saltmarshes and tidal flats have decreased to 0.04% and 1.1%, respectively. The total ESV increased significantly during 1960–2000 but significantly declined during 2000–2015. The highest total ESV was US$ 3.8 billion in 2010, considering the approximate contributions of natural and artificial wetlands. Similarly, the ESV of the S. alterniflora saltmarshes reached US$ 0.7 billion in 2015. The total intertidal wetlands area could decrease to 8071–8248/ha by 2100. The total ESV of intertidal wetland ecosystems would decrease by approximately one billion dollars between 2015 and 2050. An enhanced understanding of the economic impacts regarding coastal management, restoration, and conservation is of profound importance for improving coastal resilience, sustainable development, and adaptation of coastal societies to climate change in the Yangtze River Estuary.

Interconnectedness of Ecosystem Services Potential with Land Use/Land Cover Change Dynamics in Western Uganda

Understanding the evolution of land use/land cover change (LULCC) and how it shapes current and future ecosystem services (ES) supply potential remains critical in sustainable natural resource management. Community perception of historic LULCC was reconciled with previous study via remote sensing/geographical information systems using recall data in the Budongo–Bugoma landscape in Uganda. Then, a CA-Markovian prediction model of a LULC situation in 2040 under business as usual (BAU) and forest restoration scenarios was constructed. Additionally, we assessed the perceived proximate and underlying drivers of LULCC, and how LULCC shapes ecosystem services potential using household surveys. The perceived LULCC trend for the past three decades (1990–2020) corresponded with previous studies showing grassland, bushland, tropical high forest, and wetland cover declined greatly, while subsistence farmland, commercial farmland, and built-up areas had a great increment. The predicted LULC under (i) the business as usual scenario showed a continued decline of natural LULC while anthropogenic LULC increased greatly, tending to cover half of the landscape area; (ii) forest restoration under different levels showed an improvement of forest cover and other native LULC classes with a decline in mostly subsistence farmland. The proximate drivers were in three principal components (soil infertility, subsistence farming, drought; infrastructural development, commercial farming, overstocking of livestock, pest and disease challenges; tree planting), while underlying drivers were in two principal components (technology adoption, corruption of environment stewards, policy implementation gaps; cultural gaps). Food and cash crops were perceived to be the most important ecosystem services in the landscape. Generally, the landscape ES supply potential was dwindling and predicted to continue with a similar trend under BAU, despite the increment in ES contribution of subsistence and commercial farmland. Forest restoration would slightly improve the landscape ES potential but would cause a decline in subsistence farmland, which would result in either a threat to food/livelihood security or a livelihood shift. We recommend combined interventions that seek to achieve a progressive frontier that achieves development needs and priorities based on national need such as food security through local level production with recognition for sustainable availability of ecosystem services.

Ecosystem services values at risk in the Atlantic coastal zone due to sea-level rise and socioeconomic development

Uncertainties about the future extent of sea-level rise (SLR) and socioeconomic development will determine the future of coastal ecosystem services and values. This study analyzes the joint impact of flooding and socioeconomic development on the future ecosystem services and values in the Atlantic coastal zone by 2100. To this end, flood probability maps (using the Uncertainty Bathtub Model; uBTM) and local ecosystem service value (ESV) estimates (using meta-analytic based global ecosystem service value functions for Provisioning, Regulating & maintenance, and Cultural ecosystem services across 12 biomes) are derived for a wide combination of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios to obtain future values of coastal ecosystem services (ES). Results show that the higher potential of ESV at risk is associated with RCP 8.5 and SSP5, i.e. the scenario associated with a narrative related to fossil-fueled development. For this scenario, by 2100, the coastal zone with the highest probable losses in Provisioning ESV is Europe (∼5.9 € billion/year), for Regulating & maintenance ESV this is North America (∼6.0 € billion/year) and for Cultural ESV this is South America (∼21.3 € billion/year). Countries facing highest relative risk of losing Provisioning ESV are the Netherlands (10.6 %), United States (7.4 %), and Mauritania (5.8 %). For Regulating & maintenance ESV, the top 3 countries impacted are Mauritania (17.6 %), the Netherlands (10.0 %) and Argentina (8.0 %). For Cultural ESV, the countries are Mexico (19.0 %), Denmark (18.1 %) and Sweden (15.6 %). Changes in ESV are exponentially related to flood risk and economic growth, such that small changes in flood or income lead to large changes in ESV. Unlike previous studies, the ESV functions used are dependent on time and local factors, such as population and income. Although population and income growth result in an increase in ESV, it also emphasizes the ecosystem service values at risk. Thus, sea-level rise and socioeconomic changes impact ecosystem services and values – directly affecting the well-being of the world population. The unequal distribution of coastal ecosystem service value losses across continents and countries highlighted in this work is important to identify what values are at risk and for whom. Adaptation measures and strategies can, in turn, be defined.

Scenario analysis of the relationship among ecosystem service values—A case study of Yinchuan Plain in northwestern China

• Three development scenarios were designed: natural development scenario, ecological protection scenario and economic priority scenario. • Under different scenarios, the relationship between different types of ecosystem service values(ESVs) is mostly synergetic. • Under different scenarios, the dominance bundle takes food production as the main function. • After integrating ecosystem service bundle(ESB) and various ESVs trade-offs/synergies, implement differentiated ecological service management for different landscape zones. Clarifying the relationships among regional ecosystem service values is important for ecosystem service management. However, most current studies are based on historical periods or individual time points, and there is still a lack of research on the scenario analysis of the relationship of ecosystem service values. We chose the Yinchuan Plain in northwest China as the research object. Firstly, three development scenarios of natural development, ecological protection, and economic priority were designed. Based on the CA-Markov model, a multi-scenario simulation of land use in the Yinchuan Plain is carried out. The value equivalence factor method was then used to calculate the value of ecosystem services, and the Pearson correlation coefficient method was used to analyze the trade-offs and synergistic relationships between the values of different ecosystem services. Finally, K-Mean cluster analysis and stable metaphorical change trajectory method were used to identify ecosystem service bundle and their evolution trajectories. We found that the ecosystem service value of Yinchuan Plain shows an upward trend under the ecological protection scenario, and the rest of the scenarios and historical periods show a downward trend to varying degrees, and the ecosystem service value declines the most under the economic priority scenario. The dominant cluster is based on food production, and this service bundle is the main function throughout the year. Combining different landscape types, we synthesized the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem service bundles and various ecosystem services values in different scenarios to formulate management strategies for future ecosystem services in different landscape partitions.

Advances in Ecosystem Services Valuation Studies in India: Learnings from a Systematic Review

Ecosystem services (ES) concept has gained global momentum as they hold immense importance for human well-being. On the other hand, direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity loss have led to deterioration of ecosystem health and their capacity to deliver ecosystem services. Worldwide, ES assessments have been increasingly used by administrators to formulate sustainable and environment centric policies. Similarly, there has been continuous expansion of ES related work in India to capture the material and non-material benefits derived from diverse ecosystems in the country. In the current paper, 105 research articles/reports have been reviewed to assess the growing trajectory of ES research and also to map their methodological approaches. The lacunae in the studies and literature have been critically examined. Analysis of the study shows that ES derived from forests have been captured widely while marine ecosystems have not received appropriate scholarly attention. Similarly, dearth of studies focusing on long- and short-term implications of climate change and other environmental challenges on the ES delivery was also evident. A strong need is felt to integrate interdisciplinary approaches for holistic ES assessment. Also, future ES assessments must assimilate traditional as well as indigenous knowledge systems within ES assessment framework to ensure formulation of tangible, sustainable policies.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s44177-022-00034-0.

The Social, Economic, and Ecological Drivers of Planning and Management of Urban River Parks

Urban rivers deliver a broad range of contributions of nature to human development. The exploitation of the riverine ecosystem services evolves with uncertainty. In addition to the current decreasing of ecosystem health and changing climate, the impact of societal development on the river system directly reduces the potential delivery of future ecosystem services. What are the drivers of the design of urban river parks and what upcoming challenges will need to be addressed? This paper presents the results of an ex-post-analysis and comparative analysis of planning orientations of two urban river parks, the Isar River in Munich (Germany) and the American River in Sacramento (U.S.). The contribution describes the evolution of the urban rivers based on planning strategy, identifies drivers of changes and discusses the upcoming challenges for urban river parks that need to be addressed in the short and long term. The contribution shows that urban river park designs occur in a larger context of human demographic, technological, and economic changes. The contribution does not intend to solve the very complex and urgent challenges the case study sites face but rather to highlight research needs to support adaptation strategies.

More future synergies and less trade-offs between forest ecosystem services with natural climate solutions instead of bioeconomy solutions.

To reach the Paris Agreement, societies need to increase the global terrestrial carbon sink. There are many climate change mitigation solutions (CCMS) for forests, including increasing bioenergy, bioeconomy, and protection. Bioenergy and bioeconomy solutions use climate-smart, intensive management to generate high quantities of bioenergy and bioproducts. Protection of (semi-)natural forests is a major component of "natural climate solution" (NCS) since forests store carbon in standing biomass and soil. Furthermore, protected forests provide more habitat for biodiversity and non-wood ecosystem services (ES). We investigated the impacts of different CCMS and climate scenarios, jointly or in isolation, on future wood ES, non-wood ES, and regulating ES for a major wood provider for the international market. Specifically, we projected future ES given by three CCMS scenarios for Sweden 2020-2100. In the long term, fulfilling the increasing wood demand through bioenergy and bioeconomy solutions will decrease ES multifunctionality, but the increased stand age and wood stocks induced by rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations will partially offset these negative effects. Adopting bioenergy and bioeconomy solutions will have a greater negative impact on ES supply than adopting NCS. Bioenergy or bioeconomy solutions, as well as increasing GHG emissions, will reduce synergies and increase trade-offs in ES. NCS, by contrast, increases the supply of multiple ES in synergy, even transforming current ES trade-offs into future synergies. Moreover, NCS can be considered an adaptation measure to offset negative climate change effects on the future supplies of non-wood ES. In boreal countries around the world, forestry strategies that integrate NCS more deeply are crucial to ensure a synergistic supply of multiple ES.

Assessing the restoration status and potential of ecosystem services on the Loess Plateau

An ecosystem service assessment can directly reflect the effectiveness of ecological restoration, reveal the process and driving mechanism of ecosystem change, and guide the future management. However, most studies have focused on analyzing the historical dynamic changes in ecosystem services (ESs), and few studies have clarified what level the ecosystem should be restored to. Therefore, this study proposed the concept of a zonal climax background based on the ESs in natural reserves, which can present the best state of ecosystem in the same region. We regarded the zonal climax background as the ultimate goal of ecological restoration, and described the recovery process and gap compared with the actual state. Taking the forest, grassland and wetland ecosystems of the Loess Plateau (LP) as the research object, we quantitatively simulated the zonal climax background and actual conditions of carbon fixation, water conservation, soil conservation and sand fixation. The results showed that the annual average carbon fixation of the zonal climax background of the LP was 44.88 MgC/km2/a, the water conservation was 4.39 × 106 m3/km2/a, the soil conservation was 8416.64 t/km2/a and the sand fixation was 1051.97 t/km2/a, which represented the annual average recovery degrees were 94.10%, 38.46%, 64.73% and 87.59%, respectively. In addition, the study categorized the four ESs of the regionalization of comprehensive control of the LP through the superimposed analysis of the recovery space and the recovery degree and clarified the main focus of future ES improvement, such as carbon fixation in the loss hilly and valley region (LHGR) and Loss Plateau valley region (LPGR); soil conservation in the LHGR, LPGR and earth rock mountains area (ERMA); and water conservation in the LHGR and plain area (PA). Water and soil conservation in irrigated regions (IRs) and sandy areas (SAs) were not the main ESs and should not be prioritized over other ESs.

Widespread shift from ecosystem energy to water limitation with climate change

Terrestrial ecosystems are essential for food and water security and CO2 uptake. Ecosystem function is dependent on the availability of soil moisture, yet it is unclear how climate change will alter soil moisture limitation on vegetation. Here we use an ecosystem index that distinguishes energy and water limitations in Earth system model simulations to show a widespread regime shift from energy to water limitation between 1980 and 2100. This shift is found in both space and time. While this is mainly related to a reduction in energy-limited regions associated with increasing incoming shortwave radiation, the largest shift towards water limitation is found in regions where incoming shortwave radiation increases are accompanied by soil moisture decreases. We therefore demonstrate a widespread regime shift in ecosystem function that is stronger than implied by individual trends in incoming shortwave radiation, soil moisture and terrestrial evaporation, with important implications for future ecosystem services.

Combining Ecological Niche Models and ecosystem services indicators to assess impacts of climate change on kelp: application to French coasts

ABSTRACT Kelp forests, primarily Laminaria digitata, provide a broad range of ecosystem services of high social, economic, and ecological value and are considered one of the most productive ecosystems on the planet. Several studies have shown that kelp ecosystems are regressing in response to multiple stressors, especially climate change, which could lead to local extinctions. This may induce a decrease in the ecosystem services provided. Many studies use ecological niche models (ENM) to project potential future species distributions under climate change scenarios; however, no study has projected the future supply of ecosystem services resulting from shifts in species ranges and changes in biomass. In this study, using French coasts as a case study, we developed a new and reproducible methodological framework that combines ENM and ecosystem services indicators to assess impacts of climate change on ecosystem services supplied by kelp. To this end, we first identified ecosystem services currently provided by kelp and then used ENM to project future kelp distribution from 2041 to 2050 under climate scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Finally, by estimating the biomass of kelp, we assessed the current and future ecosystem services provided by kelp.

The ‘quiet hunt’: the significance of mushroom foraging among Russian-speaking immigrants in New York City

ABSTRACT Urban foraging provides city dwellers with numerous ecosystem services, but this human-nature interaction is largely missing from the urban ecosystem services scholarship. This exploratory study aims to address this gap in the literature and examines the benefits and values associated with foraging in New York City, United States. We focus on Russian-speaking mushroom foragers, a previously unstudied community. Data from 10 interviews reveals that for some groups, foraging is primarily about cultural ecosystem services, with a provisioning attribute. Foraging supports multiple benefits, most notably contributions to social relations, cultural heritage, and recreational experiences; these nonmaterial contributions often intertwine with material benefits. Our findings further demonstrate the mutual exchange of benefits between humans and nature, including services to ecosystems and species. Participants reported engagement in multiple stewardship practices and actively maintained and enhanced ecosystem services. We encourage future ecosystem services assessments to recognize foraging as an urban activity and consider the bi-directional exchange of benefits between humans and ecosystems. To some participants, foraging was an integral part of their relationship with the natural world, intertwined with relational values of connection to nature, kinship, love, and care. Our results suggest that relational values can be central for understanding the value of ecosystem services. Our study further illustrates that some ecosystem services may be associated with practices, rather than places, and future work should examine these links in more detail.

What Determines Individual Demand for Ecosystem Services?

Human demand for natural resources tends to be unsustainable. However, within ecosystem services (ES) literature, a rather rationalist view of ES demand dominates. This article broadens this perspective by looking at the demand from the angle of sociological risk theory. Theoretically driven interviews were conducted in three German regions and interpreted in light of risk theory. The empirical results indicate that demand can be explained by multiple aspects: (1) living and working environments, nature perception; (2) individual perceptions of environmental risk; and (3) societal socio-cultural influences. These results can be built upon in future ES research to improve our understanding of the social drivers of demand, which may inform the cultural landscape’s governance and communication strategies that encourage sustainable ES demand.

Fragmentation-Driven Divergent Trends in Burned Area in Amazonia and Cerrado

The two major Brazilian biomes, the Amazonia and the Cerrado (savanna), are increasingly exposed to fires. The Amazonian Forest is a fire sensitive ecosystem where fires are a typically rare disturbance while the Cerrado is naturally fire-dependent. Human activities, such as landscape fragmentation and land-use management, have modified the fire regime of the Cerrado and introduced fire into the Amazonian Forest. There is limited understanding of the role of landscape fragmentation on fire occurrence in the Amazonia and Cerrado biomes. Due to differences in vegetation structure, composition, and land use characteristics in each biome, we hypothesize that the emerging burned area (BA) patterns will result from biome-specific fire responses to fragmentation. The aim of this study was to test the general relationship between BA, landscape fragmentation, and agricultural land in the Amazonia and the Cerrado biomes. To estimate the trends and status of landscape fragmentation a Forest Area Density (FAD) index was calculated based on the MapBiomas land cover dataset for both biomes between 2002 and 2018. BA fraction was analyzed within native vegetation against the FAD and agricultural land fraction. Our results showed an increase in landscape fragmentation across 16% of Amazonia and 15% of Cerrado. We identified an opposite relationship between BA fraction, and landscape fragmentation and agricultural fraction contrasting the two biomes. For Amazonia, both landscape fragmentation and agricultural fraction increased BA fraction due to an increase of human ignition activities. For the Cerrado, on the other hand, an increase in landscape fragmentation and agricultural fraction caused a decrease in BA fraction within the native vegetation. For both biomes, we found that during drought years BA increases whilst the divergent trends driven by fragmentation in the two contrasting global biomes is maintained. This understanding will be critical to informing the representation of fire dynamics in fire-enable Dynamic Global Vegetation Models and Earth System Models for climate projection and future ecosystem service provision.

Spatiotemporally explicit prediction of future ecosystem service provisioning in response to climate change, sea level rise, and adaptation strategies

We present a framework to relate the provision of multiple, interacting ecosystem services to climate change and land use adaptation, by combining hydrological process models with statistical species’ distribution models and transfer functions to upscale plot data to the landscape scale. Functional traits of the projected plant communities predict provisional and species conservation services, whereas the hydrological model predicts water-related regulatory services. We applied the framework to coastal areas of the Baltic Sea to predict future ecosystem service outputs in yearly time steps from 2010 to 2100, based on a ‘high emissions’ climate change scenario, a projected sea-level rise of 1.05 m, and four land-management options corresponding to future coastal adaptation strategies. The “Hold the line” strategy implies continual pumping of excess rainwater into the sea to allow farm income from grassland usage, together with high conservation values for rare plants and meadow birds. Towards the end of the century, with an increasing sea-level rise, this results in reverse groundwater flows from sea to land and soil salinization of grasslands. Conversely, “managed realignment” implies the abandonment of pumping, thereby changing grasslands to reeds, reducing farm income and species conservation values, but promoting water retention and carbon sequestration by peat production. Between 2010 and 2100, the time series averaged across all landscape patches masked substantial spatial shifts in the outputs of ecosystem services from lower to higher elevations, emphasizing the relevance of considering both time and space.Multifunctional landscapes, by compromising between provisioning and regulatory ecosystem services, may create the response diversity needed to successfully adapt to climate change and sea-level rise.

Ecohydrological Service Characteristics of Qilian Mountain Ecosystem in the Next 30 Years Based on Scenario Simulation

Mountain ecosystems have special ecohydrological services, and the study of water conservation and soil conservation services in the Qilian Mountain Ecosystem (QLME) in China has important theoretical value for scientific understanding of the ecological processes and mechanisms of mountain ecosystems. In this study, we quantitatively estimated the spatial-temporal changes of water conservation and soil conservation services in the QLME based on the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and estimated the future ecosystem services (ESS) of the QLME under RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) and RCP8.5 scenarios using the coupled Geosos-FLUS model. Firstly, the QLME ecohydrological service increased from 1985 to 2018, and its spatial heterogeneity was high in the east and low in the west. Among them, water conservation first decreased and then showed a trend of fluctuating increase, and soil conservation services decreased sharply from 2010 to 2015. Secondly, there are differences in the ecohydrological services of the QLME under different land-use types. The water conservation capacity in descending order is glacier snow, grassland, forest land, wetland, and cultivated land. The soil conservation intensity from strong to weak is woodland, grassland, arable land, glacier snow, and bare land. Thirdly, under different scenarios, QLME water conservation and soil conservation functions will increase to varying degrees over the next 30 years. The water conservation in the RCP4.5 scenario is higher than that in the RCP8.5 scenario, and the higher discharge scenario will lead to the decline of the water conservation service function. The increased rate of soil conservation was greater under the RCP8.5 scenario. With the development of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and scenarios below 2 °C, the future of QLME ecohydrological services will be further understood.

Exploring ecosystem services trade-offs using the Bayesian belief network model for ecological restoration decision-making: A case study in Guizhou Province, China

• A Bayesian belief network (BBN) model is developed to determine the driving factors regarding trade-off changes. • The multi-scenario scheme of ES optimization is obtained by visualizing the key state of key variables. • Suggestions for ecological restoration were given, and a good way is to adjust the combination of the key state of key variables. The relationships between trade-off and synergy in ecosystem services (ESs) is essential for eco-environmental management and restoration in Karst regions, and many researchers have focused heavily on this. However, to date, and to the best of our knowledge, we still lack an adequate understanding of the driving factors of relationship changes and the optimization of the spatial pattern of ESs in this region. In this study, a Bayesian belief network (BBN) model was developed to link three major ESs—net primary productivity (NPP), water yield (WY), and soil conservation (SC)—and determine the driving factors regarding trade-off changes. Furthermore, the multi-scenario scheme of ES optimization was obtained and suggestions are provided in this paper for ecological restoration and decision-making in Guizhou Province, China. The results revealed that the relationships of regional ESs were mainly synergistic, but the synergistic relationship was weakening, accompanied by a trade-off trend during the study period. The area ratios with an enhancement of trade-offs in NPP and SC, SC and WY, and NPP and WY were 17.9%, 28.6%, and 26.6%, respectively, which indicates a significant uncoordinated changes between WY and the two other ESs. The ES relationships in this region are underpinned by multiple factors. Among them, water resources are the primary natural factor that restricts the concerted development of ESs, and the afforestation area (AA) is the main human factor that lowers the trade-offs among ESs. The superiority and distribution scope of ecological restoration were recognized through a multi-scenario analysis of the BBN model. In terms of the superiority of ecological restoration, it was concluded that scenario 3 > scenario 2 > scenario 1; in terms of the restoration area, it was scenario 1 > scenario 2 > scenario 3. Duyun City, in the south of Guizhou Province, as well as surrounding counties, were regions with a high probability of trade-off occurrences, and they could be regions for future ES optimization. Based on the driving factors and the occurrence probability of trade-offs, the ecological restoration area was identified, and it was found the ESs trade-off in this region can be decreased by adjusting a combination of the key variables’ key states. This study provides insight towards achieving a mechanistic understanding and spatial expression of the driving forces underpinning trade-offs/synergies, in turn ensuring the accurate implementation of ecological restoration and the effective management of karst ecosystems.

Ecosystem Service Modelling to Support Nature-Based Flood Water Management in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta

Deltas are among the most productive and diverse global ecosystems. However, these regions are highly vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change. Nature-based solutions (Nbs) have been increasingly adopted in many deltas to improve their resilience. Among decision support tools, assessment of ecosystem services (ES) through spatially explicit modelling plays an important role in advocating for Nbs. This study explores the use of the Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator (LUCI) model, a high-resolution model originally developed in temperate hill country regions, to map changes in multiple ecosystem services (ES), along with their synergies and trade-offs, between 2010 and 2018 in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). In so doing, this study contributes to the current knowledge in at least two aspects: high-resolution ES modelling in the VMD, and the combination of ES biophysical and economic values within the VMD to support Nbs implementation. To date, this is the highest resolution (5 by 5 m) ES modelling study ever conducted in the VMD, with ~1500 million elements generated per ES. In the process of trialling implementations of LUCI within the VMD’s unique environmental conditions and data contexts, we identify and suggest potential model enhancements to make the LUCI model more applicable to the VMD as well as other tropical deltaic regions. LUCI generated informative results in much of the VMD for the selected ES (flood mitigation, agriculture/aquaculture productivity, and climate regulation), but challenges arose around its application to a new agro-hydrological regime. To address these challenges, parameterising LUCI and reconceptualising some of the model’s mechanisms to specifically account for the productivity and flood mitigation capability of water-tolerant crops as well as flooding processes of deltaic regions will improve future ES modelling in tropical deltaic areas. The ES maps showed the spatial heterogeneity of ES across the VMD. Next, to at least somewhat account for the economic drivers which need to be considered alongside biophysical valuations for practical implementations of ES maps for nature-based solutions (Nbs) in the upstream VMD, economic values were assigned to different parcels using a benefit transfer approach. The spatially explicit ES economic value maps can inform the design of financing incentives for Nbs. The results and related work can be used to support the establishment of Nbs that ultimately contribute to the security of local farmers’ livelihoods and the sustainability of the VMD.

Modeling the spatial distribution of the current and future ecosystem services of urban tree planting in Chicopee and Fall River, Massachusetts

Mature urban tree canopy cover disrupts the local effects of urban heat islands and provides important ecosystem services such as energy savings through evaporation and shading, pollution removal, storm runoff control, and carbon sequestration. Sustainable urban tree canopy relies on the planting of juvenile trees. Typically, tree planting programs are only evaluated by the number of trees planted and there is a lack of analysis of juvenile trees post-planting. This study examines the value and distribution of energy savings provided by juvenile trees and how that value changes considering predicted tree growth and mortality by 2050. Using i-Tree Eco software, this study models the current and future ecosystem services provided to residents based on a juvenile tree inventory of 2271 street and residential trees planted in Massachusetts (USA) from 2014 to 2015 by the Greening the Gateway Cities Program (GGCP) in Chicopee and Fall River, MA. Juvenile trees planted by the GGCP provided $776 and $1520 (2018) in annual savings from ecosystem service in Chicopee and Fall River while services modeled to mature tree 2050 conditions show increased total annual savings of $2911 and $5840 in Chicopee and Fall River (2050). The mean total savings per tree per household were $0.77 in 2018 and $13.60 in 2050, with the majority from cooling energy savings in the summer. Services were maximized in neighborhoods where large numbers of trees were planted or when tree planting location (distance and orientation to the house) was optimized for highest savings. Analysis of the distribution of benefits reveals different planting strategies in Chicopee and Fall River. Ecosystem services from juvenile trees are concentrated in US Census block groups with more pre-existing tree canopy cover and lower median income. A tree planting density of two to three trees per acre was able to achieve the largest energy savings. Results of this study reinforce the importance of tree survivorship on sustaining the urban tree canopy to provide ecosystem services.

Cultural worldviews consistently explain bundles of ecosystem service prioritisation across rural Germany

AbstractDifferences in ecosystem service (ES) priorities often lead to conflicts between stakeholders. While differences in priorities have often been described, the sociocultural factors, including differences in cultural worldview, which drive them have not. We propose that the cultural theory of risk and its ‘grid‐group’ typology, which classifies people as individualists, hierarchists, egalitarians and fatalists, can provide a conceptual framework for doing this.We examined the relationship between ES prioritisation by stakeholders and underlying cultural (cultural worldviews, and related environmental nature and risk perceptions), sociocultural (region, stakeholder group, political party preference) and socio‐demographic factors. This was achieved by applying multivariate statistics to data from a survey with 321 respondents, conducted across 14 stakeholder groups in three German regions.Results show that most stakeholders prioritised many services but gave the highest priority to services linked to their stakeholder group. We identified four ‘ES priority bundles’: cultural services, open‐land provisioning services, environmental protection services and forest provisioning services.Each ES priority bundle was consistently associated with particular cultural worldviews, perceptions of nature and sociocultural factors, meaning that we could identify ‘cultural types’. Two of these associations were particularly strong: Prioritisation of open‐land provisioning ES was high for the agriculture stakeholder group, associated with individualism, a perception of nature as durable but unpredictable, and support for economic liberal, conservative political parties. In contrast, those who prioritised environmental protection tended to hold egalitarian cultural worldviews and perceive nature as tolerant and sensitive. They also often belonged to the research and nature conservation stakeholder groups, with a mostly left‐leaning political party preference.The identification of cultural types of stakeholder with consistent ES priorities and cultural worldviews may provide a useful construct in the future ES research. Furthermore, it may allow communications regarding ES to be tailored to improve their effectiveness, potentially aiding the promotion of sustainable management strategies.A freePlain Language Summarycan be found within the Supporting Information of this article.