Future Drivers Research Articles

A fallback mechanism or a commander? A discussion about the role and skill needs of future drivers within partially automated vehicles

Vehicle automation promises to improve safety. However, it also raises concerns about human performance. Many current research and policy efforts address automation effects on operational levels of driving control. However, the driving task encompasses more than just operational control. So, in this paper, we ask whether a more holistic view of the driving task should be considered. Would such a framework imply that the human role is more than just a “fallback” mechanism for automation systems, especially for partial automation systems? If the human role were conceptualized more as a “commander role” (than an “operator”), would it enable system-level performance to be optimized more effectively? If so, would this lead to changes in design of the vehicle and interface—as well as in skills needed by human users? New skills like strategic planning, delegation of control responsibility, tactical avoidance, and effective mediation of hazardous situations could become important. A more holistic approach for integrating automation may facilitate role change for human users while also improving safety.

Design and Evaluation of a Novel Haptic Interface for Horse-Drawn Carriage Simulation.

Animal welfare has become an increasingly important concern in the sports field. Learning horse-drawn carriage driving requires much time and effort for both the drivers and the horses because the associated gestures to avoid harming the horses are difficult to acquire. This raises the need to develop realistic simulation environments for future drivers. To this end, two haptic interface prototypes were designed, coupled with dedicated simulation software. The first was developed based on a SPIDAR haptic device and implemented simple behaviors of the carriage. A user study demonstrated interest in such a simulator, which led to the design of a second prototype, on a different architecture than the first prototype, for integrating more precise laws of horse behavior such as mood and allowing a more subtle control of forces. An evaluation with driving learners revealed that the simulator was capable of not only producing sensations close to reality but also improving the interaction between the trainer and the learner.

Visual motor coordination capabilities of future car drivers in relation to the practised physical activity

Visual motor coordination capabilities of future car drivers in relation to the practised physical activity

QUALITY IMPROVEMENT OF PRACTICAL TRAINING ON THE SUBJECT "THE ROAD TRAFFIC REGULATIONS"

In recent decades, the world has seen a rapid increase in the number of vehicles and an increase in traffic, which leads to an increase in the number of road accidents and their negative consequences. For example, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), road traffic injuries are one of the biggest health problems today. Road accidents are projected to be one of the top five causes of death in the world in 2030. In Ukraine, the level of deaths and injuries due to road accidents is one of the highest in Europe, and the level of road safety remains extremely low, as repeatedly pointed out in their reports by experts from the WHO, the World Bank and other international institutions. More than 26 % of those killed and 15 % injured in road accidents in 2019 are pedestrians (1,414 people died and 8,455 people were injured). In 2019 alone, 329 children under the age of 18 died on the roads of Ukraine and 7,906 children were injured. Accidents in Ukraine are the first most common cause of death for young people aged 15 to 24 and the second most common cause of death for children aged 5 to 14. Thus, in 2019, compared to 2018, the number of road accidents increased by 7 %, as well as the number of dead and injured persons by 4.2 % and 6.3 %, respectively. Ukraine is also one of the leaders among EU countries in terms of specific indicators of accidents and consequences of road accidents. Thus on average in the EU member states (according to 2017 data) there are 5 fatalities in road accidents per 100 thousand populations, while in Ukraine this figure is (according to 2017 data) 12.5 people, respectively, which is more than the European average. 150 %. It is also important to note that in the absence of quality data collection on injuries and deaths due to road accidents, these indicators may not reflect the present figures. A significant number of road accidents that occurred in Ukraine during 2017-2019, as well as people injured in them, affect the economy and health care of Ukraine. Studies conducted by many countries establish a general rule that every death costs about 70 gross domestic products per person, and every serious injury to a person amounts to about 17 gross domestic products per person. If we apply this rule to the indicators given above, it becomes clear that the cost estimate of socio-economic losses of Ukraine (excluding material costs associated with property damage and reduced productivity) from these accidents and their consequences in 2019 alone is about 4.79 billion US dollars (3.18 % of Ukraine's gross domestic product). The main reasons for this situation are the insufficient level of road safety; improper maintenance of vehicles; low level of discipline of road users; inconsistency of the state of the road network with the level of traffic intensity; insufficient introduction of the latest technologies and technical means of traffic organization; low level of training of future drivers. The article considers the problems of the educational process related to improving the quality of practical training of students in the discipline "Traffic Rules" and suggests effective ways to solve them by differentiating approaches to managing the cognitive activity of students.

Knowledge Management System for Railway Supply Chain Perspective

Knowledge Management System (KMS) is a monitoring system that emphasizes the desired and actual performance of an industry. Aligning KMS to viably execute the Railway Industry methodology and supply chain operations utilizing legitimate knowledge management capabilities. Yet KMS controls the planning and priorities through action controls that emphasize on operational control level, result controls toward the strategic planning level, personnel controls on retaining the right operation with the right skills, and transaction control on the accurate and complete legal transactions for ensuring strategic management. Therefore, we have come up with a dynamic KMS for the Railway Supply Chain context that focuses on operational, tactical, and strategic perspectives on the information sources, value, analytics, and requirement for current and future drivers of an industry perspective. Moreover, this KMS aims to redesign the Information System by promoting a reductionist approach to problem-solving and best decision-making practices within an industry context.

Factors influencing the re-emergence of plague in Madagascar.

Plague is an infectious disease found worldwide and has been responsible for pandemics throughout history. Yersinia pestis, the causative bacterium, survives in rodent hosts with flea vectors that also transmit it to humans. It has been endemic in Madagascar for a century but the 1990s saw major outbreaks and in 2006 the WHO described the plague as re-emerging in Madagascar and the world. This review highlights the variety of factors leading to plague re-emergence in Madagascar, including climate events, insecticide resistance, and host and human behaviour. It also addresses areas of concern for future epidemics and ways to mitigate these. Pinpointing and addressing current and future drivers of plague re-emergence in Madagascar will be essential to controlling future outbreaks both in Madagascar and worldwide.

Legal issues in automated vehicles: critically considering the potential role of consent and interactive digital interfaces

Some of the first ‘automated’ vehicles to be deployed on our roads will require a system of shared driving with a human driver. While this creates technical and operational challenges, the law must also facilitate such a transfer. One method may be to obtain the driver’s consent to share operational responsibility and to delineate legal responsibility between vehicle and driver in the event of an accident. Consent is a voluntary agreement where an individual is aware of the potential consequences of their consent, including the risks. The driver of a partially automated vehicle must be informed of potential risks before giving consent to share operational responsibility. This paper will refer to the inherent dangers associated with shared operational responsibility, in particular where there has been a request for the driver to take back control from the automated vehicle during the journey. Drivers are likely to experience delay in regaining situational awareness, making such operational transfers hazardous. It is argued that where an interactive digital interface is used to convey information, such as driver responsibility, risk and legal terms, drivers may fail to sufficiently process such communications due to fundamental weaknesses in human–machine interaction. The use of an interactive digital interface alone may be inadequate to effectively communicate information to drivers. If the problems identified are not addressed, it is argued that driver consent may be inconsequential, and fail to facilitate a predicable demarcation of legal responsibility between automated vehicles and drivers. Ongoing research into automated vehicle driver training is considered as part of the preparation required to design driver education to a level whereby drivers may be able to sufficiently understand the responsibilities involved in operating a partially automated vehicle, which has implications for future driver training, licensing and certification.

Strength in diversity? Past dynamics and future drivers affecting demand for sugar, ethanol, biogas and bioelectricity from Brazil's sugarcane sector

Brazil's sugarcane sector is a significant source of employment, and operates at the intersection of energy, agriculture and land use. Its future development will be affected by the values, decisions and actions of key actors. Accordingly, we report on the results of qualitative semi-structured interviews with 19 participants with expertise in relation to Brazil's sugarcane sector. We used visual aids, and reflections on past events, to structure and contextualise discussions about the future prospects for the sector as a whole, and for four of its potential products – sugar, ethanol, electricity and biogas.Interviews revealed general expectations of continued growth in the sector, particularly for its energy-related products. However, the possibility of future challenges and tensions is still evident. We suggest three inter-related areas for ongoing reflection. First, there may be value in balancing the desire for minimal intervention, technology neutral styles of policy, with the need for policy that is clear, long-term and impactful. In some cases, more targeted policies for particular actors or emergent technologies, may also be justified. Second, increased clarity on the broader objectives for the sector, including the relative prioritisation of economic, social and environmental objectives, may help industry to make the long term investments consistent with the kind of deep innovation for which there is potential. Third, it is worth reflecting on how the above issues in combination can be leveraged into a global leadership strategy, with consideration of the relative robustness of different leadership strategies within broader emerging global dynamics.

Higher-order driving instruction and opportunities for improvement: Exploring differences across learner driver experience

Introduction: Few studies have investigated what guidance occurs during the Learner phase of driving, particularly during formal lessons. The objective of this research was threefold: (a) investigate functional and higher-order driving instruction (HO-DI) in formal Learner lessons, (b) explore teaching approaches within the context of a theoretical framework, and (c) investigate variation in these three elements of instruction as a function of Learner driving experience. The theoretical framework developed to guide this research integrated the constructivist Goals for Driver Education and self-determination theory. Method: Professional instruction was explored through naturalistic observation; 15 instructors provided GoPro recordings of 110 driving lessons with Learners aged 16–19 years (n = 96) at varying levels of experience: Early (<20 logbook hours), Mid (21–70 h), and Late (71–>100 h). Results: Employing a previously-developed coding taxonomy, instructor guidance opportunities were identified as 15% HO-DI, 73% functional instruction, and 12% untaken or missed HO-DI. Functional instruction peaked in the Mid Phase, while HO-DI was prominent in the Early phase suggesting missed opportunities in the later phases when use of silence peaked. Some elements of self-determination theory’s needs-supportive model were readily identified in teaching approaches, such as feedback. Conclusions: An understanding of functional and HO-DI, including teaching strategies, was established within the context of an integrated theoretical framework, with different trajectories across Learner experience identified. Teaching strategies reflected constructivism and self-determination theory providing theoretical support for these frameworks to be applied in future driver training studies. Continued research efforts are needed to understand how best to balance functional and HO-DI to maximize young novice drivers’ learning prior to independent driving, particularly during the late Learner period. Practical Applications: Naturalistic observation of current HO-DI and teaching approaches supports the feasibility of integrating recommended improvements arising from the theoretical framework within current practice, with practical implications for improvements to industry training.

A Holistic Review of the Present and Future Drivers of the Renewable Energy Mix in Maharashtra, State of India

A strong energy mix of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) is needed for sustainable development in the electricity sector. India stands as one of the fastest developing countries in terms of RES production. In this framework, the main objective of this review is to critically scrutinize the Maharashtra state energy landscape to discover the gaps, barriers, and challenges therein and to provide recommendations and suggestions for attaining the RES target by 2022. This work begins with a discussion about the RES trends in various developing countries. Subsequently, it scrutinizes the installed capacity of India, reporting that Maharashtra state holds a considerable stake in the Indian energy mix. A further examination of the state energy mix is carried out by comparing the current and future targets of the state action plan. It is found that the installed capacity of RESs accounts for about 22% of the state energy mix. Moreover, the current installed capacity trend is markedly different from the goals set out in the action plan of the state. Notably, the installed capacity of solar energy is four times less than the target for 2020. Importantly, meeting the targeted RES capacity for 2022 presents a great challenge to the state. Considering this, an analysis of the state’s strengths, barriers, and challenges is presented. Moreover, strong suggestions and recommendations are provided to clear the track to reach the desired destination. This can be useful for the government agencies, research community, private investors, policymakers, and stakeholders involved in building a sustainable energy system for the future.

Early weaning: new insights on an ever-persistent problem in the dairy industry.

It is common practice in the dairy industry to separate the calf from the cow immediately after parturition, and in most parts of the world calves are housed individually during the milk-feeding period. Early and abrupt separation has major implications for the calf's physical and psychological development. In this Research Reflection short review we present and discuss the main housing systems and management practices regarding early weaning in today's dairy industry. Main benefits and disadvantages are critically addressed, and possible future research suggested. Furthermore, major policy issues related to consumers, scientific recommendations and economic performance of farms have been identified, as well as future drivers for more viable housing solutions for neonatal calves. This review serves as an introduction and preamble to the second section of this Special Issue, which is dedicated to cow-calf contact management systems.

Future Transboundary Water Stress and Its Drivers Under Climate Change: A Global Study.

Various transboundary river basins are facing increased pressure on water resources in near future. However, little is known ab out the future drivers globally, namely, changes in natural local runoff and natural inflows from upstream parts of a basin, as well as local and upstream water consumption. Here we use an ensemble of four global hydrological models forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse‐gas concentration (RCP) and socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios to assess the impact of these drivers on transboundary water stress in the past and future. Our results show that population under water stress is expected to increase by 50% under a low population growth and emissions scenario (SSP1‐RCP2.6) and double under a high population growth and emission scenario (SSP3‐RCP6.0), compared to the year 2010. As changes in water availability have a smaller effect when water is not yet scarce, changes in water stress globally are dominated by local water consumption—managing local demand is thus necessary in order to avoid future stress. Focusing then on the role of upstream changes, we identified upstream availability (i.e., less natural runoff or increased water consumption) as the dominant driver of changes in net water availability in most downstream areas. Moreover, an increased number of people will be living in areas dependent on upstream originating water in 2050. International water treaties and management will therefore have an increasingly crucial role in these hot spot regions to ensure fair management of transboundary water resources.

Exploring driving characteristics of fit- and unfit-to-drive neurological patients: a driving simulator study

Objective: To identify driving characteristics of fit-, unfit-, and conditionally fit-to-drive neurological patient populations using a driving simulator with three high-risk scenarios comprising rural, highway, and urban environments.Methods: The study included 91 neurological patients undergoing a multidisciplinary assessment for driver’s license revalidation, consisting of a clinical, neuropsychological, functional, and on-road evaluation. The groups drove through three independent driving scenarios, during which a variety of measures describing reaction time, vehicular control, and traffic rule compliance were performed. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with Bonferroni correction was used for group comparison, independently for each driving scenario, and Pearson correlations were calculated between simulator variables and neuropsychological test scores.Results: The fit- and unfit-to-drive population significantly differed (p < .05) in reaction times, regardless of the scenario. No significant differences in traffic rule compliance or vehicular control parameters were observed in the rural environment (p > .05). On the highway, the unfit group exhibited greater variability of steering wheel angle, higher steering reversal rate, and a higher rate of turn signal errors. In the urban environment, the unfit group oversped more, had more collisions, and exhibited greater lane position variability. The latter, along with reaction times in the rural and highway scenarios, was also shown to significantly differ between the conditional and unfit group (p < .05). No significant differences were observed between the fit and the conditional group (p > .05). Weak to moderate associations (range: −0.5 to 0.29) between neuropsychological tests and various simulator variables were also observed.Conclusions: Our results show that driving simulators are able to capture differences between (fit- and unfit-to-drive) neurological patient populations and therefore bear the potential for being used as a deficit-independent screening, assessment, or rehabilitation tool. The conditionally-fit-to-drive group exhibited less discriminative features, which points to greater importance of human judgment for this population. The observation that differences in most of the parameters were environment-dependent suggests that developers of future driver simulation tools should carefully design scenarios in order to fully exploit their assessment potential.

Future Drivers of Leisure Time Physical Activity in Iran

Abstract Physical activity can contribute to societal health and prevent antisocial behaviors. This study explored the driving forces facilitating these goals in Iran’s socio-cultural context. Through a literature review, investigation of available political documents, interviews with experts and consensus of the research team, seventy-three driving forces were explored from different domains and then categorised via the STEEPV framework. This framework considers drivers from Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, and Value/Cultural dimensions. The “sport/sport sciences” domain was also considered as an additional domain. In the next step, a questionnaire with an answer scale of 1 to 7 was distributed among experts. The fuzzy Delphi method was used to analyse the collected data. Results showed eighteen drivers from five domains (social, environmental, economic, technological and sport/sports sciences) dramatically influenced leisure time physical activity (LTPA) in Iran. “Physical activity opportunities for vulnerable groups” was identified as the most important driver for participation in LTPA. Results suggest the need for a multidimensional and thorough consideration by organisations, leisure managers and policymakers to discover methods to promote health-related physical activities in the future.

Finding the Fingerprint of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Marine Phytoplankton Abundance

We review how phytoplankton abundance may be responding to the increase in stratification associated with anthropogenic climate change, providing context on the utility of remote sensing datasets and Earth system model output to understand these perturbations. Assessing disruption in the ocean biosphere using remote sensing datasets is challenged by the relatively short length of the observational record, restricting our ability to disentangle fluctuations due to internal climate variability from those imposed by externally forced anthropogenic trends. Ensembles of Earth system models can be used to quantify past and future drivers, but may not skillfully predict observed spatial patterns and temporal dynamics in marine phytoplankton. To better understand the role of internal climate variability in the observational record, we construct a synthetic ensemble of global chlorophyll concentration over the MODIS satellite mission using statistical emulation techniques. We emphasize the use of a synthetic ensemble to illuminate the role of internal climate variability in the evolution of the ocean biosphere over time.

Combining Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios with Current Forest Owner Behavior: A Scenario Study from a Region in Southern Sweden

This study investigates the need for change of current forest management approaches in a southern Swedish region within the context of future climate change mitigation through empirically derived projections, rather than forest management according to silvicultural guidelines. Scenarios indicate that climate change mitigation will increase global wood demand. This might call for adjustments of well-established management approaches. This study investigates to what extent increasing wood demands in three climate change mitigation scenarios can be satisfied with current forest management approaches of different intensities in a southern Swedish region. Forest management practices in Kronoberg County were mapped through interviews, statistics, and desk research and were translated into five different management strategies with different intensities regulating management at the property level. The consequences of current practices, as well as their intensification, were analyzed with the Heureka Planwise forest planning system in combination with a specially developed forest owner decision simulator. Projections were done over a 100-year period under three climate change mitigation scenarios developed with the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIUM). Current management practices could meet scenario demands during the first 20 years. This was followed by a shortage of wood during two periods in all scenarios unless rotations were reduced. In a longer timeframe, the wood demands were projected to be easily satisfied in the less ambitious climate change mitigation scenarios. In contrast, the demand in the ambitious mitigation scenario could not be met with current management practices, not even if all owners managed their production forests at the intensive extreme of current management approaches. The climate change mitigation scenarios provide very different trajectories with respect to future drivers of forest management. Our results indicate that with less ambitious mitigation efforts, the relatively intensive practices in the study region can be softened while ambitious mitigation might push for further intensification.

СИСТЕМА ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ-КАК ОСНОВНОЙ ИНСТРУМЕНТ ПОВЫШЕНИЯ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ ДОРОЖНОГО ДВИЖЕНИЯ ТРАНСПОРТНЫМИ СРЕДСТВАМИ

The Problem of high mortality due to road accidents is a priority and should be addressed at the state level . the solution to this problem is based on improving the level of training of future drivers, with an emphasis on educating them a culture of behavior on the road.

Medicina de tráfego e primeiros socorros: interlocuções com a formação do instrutor de trânsito

O objetivo deste estudo é compartilhar um relato de experiência sobre a realização do módulo de medicina de tráfego e primeiros socorros de um curso de formação em instrutor de trânsito. Trata-se de um relato de experiência, com abordagem qualitativa, descritiva e exploratória, tendo como participantes, 13 estudantes do módulo de medicina de tráfego e primeiros socorros de um curso de formação em instrutor de trânsito. A coleta de dados ocorreu por meio de questionário, sendo posteriormente analisado com aproximações da Análise de Conteúdo de Bardin (2016). Durante toda a pesquisa, foram seguidos e respeitados os preceitos éticos para pesquisas com seres humanos. Os resultados seguiram a transversalidade do módulo, intuindo sobre a interação dos participantes com as aulas, discutindo a metodologia empregada e a presença de aspectos da relação entre teoria e prática. Observou-se também a inter-relação do conteúdo apresentado e a importância para a vida pessoal. E também, identificou-se a importância do módulo para a formação profissional, sob a premissa da qualidade em ensinar os futuros condutores de veículos. Sendo assim, compreende-se a importância do módulo de medicina de tráfego e primeiros socorros para a formação do instrutor de trânsito, sendo uma profissão fundamental para a formação de condutores de veículos.

Analysis and mapping of present and future drivers of local urban climate using remote sensing: a case of Lahore, Pakistan

Urbanization is the main driver of expanding industry, transport, and buildings at the cost of green spaces in the world’s mega cities. Consequently, an immense land use change is related to local climate modification in urban areas. The process of urbanization in the city of Lahore is posing severe environmental issues such as recent smog events. The objective here is to determine and analyze the spatial variability of land surface temperature (LST) caused by the land use land cover (LULC) change between the year 1996 and 2016 in Lahore in the context of urbanization and, based on this, to predict the land use change and corresponding increase in LST in 2035. To quantify LULC change during the 1996–2016 period, we used supervised maximum likelihood method and ground observations from 400 locations to classify the satellite imagery from the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM)/Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+)/Operational Land Imager (OLI) for the years 1996, 2010, and 2016. Moreover, to better understand spatial variability of surface urban heat island (UHI) with the process of urbanization, various indicators were derived from the remote sensing imagery, including the normalized difference vegetation and built-up indices (i.e., NDVI and NDBI, respectively). Moreover, we used an RS-integrated multi-layer perceptron-Markov chain analysis (MLP-MCA) model to predict the LULC change from the year 2016 to 2035 so that the predicted LULC change, as a driver of UHI, can be related to the future local climate of the city. Through relating LST with NDVI and NDBI, we reveal that rapid developments in the residential/infrastructural sectors are causing an immense degradation in the city vegetation areas. The LULC change analyses show that about 9% decrease in green areas during 1996–2016 caused an increase in 6∘C around the built-up areas and an overall difference of 4.8∘C between built-up and nearby sub-urban vegetation areas. Keeping this and MLP-MCA-based predictions for 2035 in view, we conclude that a future 3% decrease in vegetation-covered green areas will approximately cause an increase of 2∘C by 2035. The research output will help the city government and local developers to devise sustainable policies for land use planning and urban development.

Estimated crash injury risk and crash characteristics for motorsport drivers

ObjectiveMotorsport crash events are complex and driver restraint systems are unique to the motorsport environment. The National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing, Incorporated (NASCAR®) crash and medical datasets provide an opportunity to assess crash statistics and the relationship between crash characteristics and driver injury. Injury risk curves can estimate driver injury risk and can be developed using vehicle incident data recorder information as inputs. These relationships may provide guidance and insight for at-track emergency response, driver triage and treatment protocols. MethodEight race seasons of crash and medical record data (including Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) scores) from the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series & NASCAR Xfinity Series were processed and analyzed. Multiple logistic regression modeling was used to produce injury risk curves from longitudinal and lateral resultant change in velocity, resultant peak acceleration, principal direction of force and the number of impacts per incident. Results2065 Unique IDR data files were matched with 246 cases of driver injury or sub-injury (severity below AIS 1) and 1819 no-injury cases. Multiple logistic regression modeling showed increasing resultant change in velocity, resultant peak acceleration and the number of impacts during a crash event all increase estimated driver injury risk. After accounting for the other predictors in the model, right lateral impacts were found to have a lower estimated injury risk. The model produced an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve of 0.80. Across the eight race seasons in this study the overall average resultant change in velocity was 34.4 kph (21.4 mph) and the average resultant peak acceleration was 19.0 G for an average of 258 crashes per season. For 2011 through 2015, full time drivers experienced 134 times more crashes per mile traveled than passenger vehicles, but experienced 9.3 times fewer injuries per crash. ConclusionMultiple logistic regression was used to estimate AIS 1+ injury only and AIS 1+ with sub-injury risk for motorsport drivers using motorsport-specific crash and medical record databases. The injury risk estimate models can provide future guidance and insight for at-track emergency medical response dispatch immediately following an on-track crash. These models may also inform future driver triage protocols and influence future expenditures on motorsports safety research.