Future Climate Research Articles

The Increase in Urban Heat Due to Global Warming Can be Significantly Affected by the Structure of the Land Use and Land Cover

ABSTRACTUrban populations are increasingly exposed to excessive heat. Heat distribution in the urban environment can be affected by several factors, including the spatial arrangement of land use/land cover (LULC) that is specific to a given city. This study applies a climate model with urban canopy parameterisation to downscale future climate projections and simulate the spatio‐temporal pattern of heat in the urban environment to better understand the effect of LULC structure on its distribution. Heat conditions are characterised by climate indices that are well representative in two mid‐sized Central European cities of Brno and Ostrava (Czech Republic). Our results show that the annual number of hot days (HOT), summer days (SUD), tropical nights (TRN) and warm nights (WAN) will increase significantly (p < 0.01) in the 21st century in both cities. The model also simulates a more intensive increase and a higher spatio‐temporal variability in all indices in Brno compared to Ostrava. In Brno, the annual number of HOT and TRN is projected to be more than 500% of the 1981–2010 reference period's value by the end of the 21st century under the RCP 8.5 scenario. To determine the causes of the differences in heat distribution, we applied LULC configuration metrics and correlation analysis using various geographical factors. The higher risk of urban heat in Brno compared to Ostrava can be attributed to a more homogenised and less fragmented LULC structure and to the more substantial role of altitude in the complex terrain of Brno. Other factors, such as the presence of impervious surfaces and vegetation, have a similar effect on the variability of the studied indices in both cities. Urban planners should consider the role of the LULC structure and the changes that can be made in a city when designing adaptation measures to mitigate the effects of urban heat.

Comparative Study of Potential Habitats for Two Endemic Grassland Caterpillars on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on BIOMOD2 and Land Use Data.

This study has systematically investigated and compared the geographical distribution patterns and population density of G. menyuanensis (Gm) and G. qinghaiensis (Gq), which are endemic to the QTP region and inflict severe damage. Using a method combining the BIOMOD2 integration model (incorporating nine ecological niche models) and current species distribution data, this study has compared changes in potential habitats and distribution centers of these two species during ancient, present, and future climate periods and conducted a correlation test on the prediction results with land use types. The study results indicate that there are differences in geographical distribution patterns, distribution elevations, and population density of these two species. Compared with single models, the integration model exhibits prominent accuracy and stability with higher KAPPA, TSS, and AUC values. The distribution of suitable habitats for these two species is significantly affected by climatic temperature and precipitation. There is a significant difference between the potential habitats of these two species. Gm and Gq are distributed in the northeastern boundary area and the central and eastern areas of the QTP, respectively. The areas of their suitable habitats are significantly and positively correlated with the area of grassland among all land use types of QTP, with no correlations with the areas of other land use types of QTP. The potential habitats of both species during the paleoclimate period were located in the eastern and southeastern boundary areas of the QTP. During the paleoclimate period, their potential habitats expanded towards the Hengduan Mountains (low-latitude regions) in the south compared with their current suitable habitats. With the subsequent temperature rising, their distribution centers shifted towards the northeast (high-latitude) regions, which could validate the hypothesis that the Hengduan Mountains were refuges for these species during the glacial period. In the future, there will be more potential suitable habitats for these two species in the QTP. This study elucidates the ecological factors affecting the current distribution of these grass caterpillars, provides an important reference for designating the prevention and control areas for Gm and Gq, and helps protect the alpine meadow ecosystem in the region.

Unraveling Lake Geneva's hypoxia crisis in the Anthropocene

AbstractDespite global evidence of lake deoxygenation, its duration, timing, and impacts over decadal to centennial timescales remain uncertain. This study introduces a novel model approach using 150 yr of limnological and paleolimnological data to evaluate the anthropogenic impacts on deep oxygen in Lake Geneva. Results highlight an increase in oxygen consumption rates due to cultural eutrophication, initially triggering historical hypoxia, subsequently exacerbated by reduced winter mixing induced by climate change. Simulations of pre‐eutrophication conditions and future climate scenarios define safe operating spaces for the lake to thrive without severe hypoxia risk. Complete winter mixing and O2 recharge once every 3 yr can compensate the oxygen demand in Lake Geneva, even when exceeding 1.5 g O2 m−2 d−1. However, when complete winter mixing becomes less frequent, even consumption rates similar to those observed before eutrophication can cause persistent hypoxia, posing a significant threat to the survival of hypolimnetic aquatic life.

Post-trial access practice in malaria, tuberculosis, and NTDs clinical trial studies in Sub-Saharan African countries, quantitative study

This article discusses two climate fiction novels—one British, one American—that were written in the runup to two major political events on either side of the Atlantic in 2016—the Brexit referendum and the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency—and considers how their focus on a future climate emergency serves as an apt reflection on the mutual reinforcements of neoliberalism, precarization, and populism. By looking at these two novels together through the lens of right-wing populism and notions such as the Capitalocene (Moore), the Trumpocene (Colebrook) and the “critical utopia” (Moylan), I consider how the future climate catastrophes that these novels imagine are equally likely “to be used as opportunities to advance and entrench socially regressive forms of politics and unsustainable trajectories […] as inspire forms of ‘disaster collectivism,’ where acts of community and solidarity flourish” (Newell, 2020: 157). As novels that are deeply concerned with the politics of the present, I consider how Robinson’s and Beckett’s novels are inspired by different utopian inflections that lead to different outcomes but similar diagnoses: that the worst effects of climate change will not be averted because humanity seems bent on its current trajectory.

Predicting Gross Primary Productivity under Future Climate Change for the Tibetan Plateau Based on Convolutional Neural Networks

Gross primary productivity (GPP) is vital for ecosystems and the global carbon cycle, serving as a sensitive indicator of ecosystems’ responses to climate change. However, the impact of future climate changes on GPP in the Tibetan Plateau, an ecologically important and climatically sensitive region, remains underexplored. This study aimed to develop a data-driven approach to predict the seasonal and annual variations in GPP in the Tibetan Plateau up to the year 2100 under changing climatic conditions. A convolutional neural network (CNN) was employed to investigate the relationships between GPP and various environmental factors, including climate variables, CO2 concentrations, and terrain attributes. This study analyzed the projected seasonal and annual GPP from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four future scenarios: SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5. The results suggest that the annual GPP is expected to significantly increase throughout the 21st century under all future climate scenarios. By 2100, the annual GPP is projected to reach 1011.98 Tg C, 1032.67 Tg C, 1044.35 Tg C, and 1055.50 Tg C under the four scenarios, representing changes of 0.36%, 4.02%, 5.55%, and 5.67% relative to 2021. A seasonal analysis indicates that the GPP in spring and autumn shows more pronounced growth under the SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios due to the extended growing season. Furthermore, the study identified an elevation band between 3000 and 4500 m that is particularly sensitive to climate change in terms of the GPP response. Significant GPP increases would occur in the east of the Tibetan Plateau, including the Qilian Mountains and the upper reaches of the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers. These findings highlight the pivotal role of climate change in driving future GPP dynamics in this region. These insights not only bridge existing knowledge gaps regarding the impact of future climate change on the GPP of the Tibetan Plateau over the coming decades but also provide valuable guidance for the formulation of climate adaptation strategies aimed at ecological conservation and carbon management.

Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier

Abstract. In recent decades, glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica have made the largest contribution to mass loss from the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet. Glacier retreat and acceleration have led to concerns about the stability of the region and the effects of future climate change. Coastal thinning and near-synchronous increases in ice flux across neighbouring glaciers suggest that ocean-driven melting is one of the main drivers of mass imbalance. However, the response of individual glaciers to changes in ocean conditions varies according to their local geometry. One of the largest and fastest-flowing of these glaciers, Pine Island Glacier (PIG), underwent a retreat from a subglacial ridge in the 1940s following a period of unusually warm conditions. Despite subsequent cooler periods, the glacier failed to recover back to the ridge and continued retreating to its present-day position. Here, we use the ice-flow model Úa to investigate the sensitivity of this retreat to changes in basal melting. We show that a short period of increased basal melt was sufficient to force the glacier from its stable position on the ridge and undergo an irreversible retreat to the next topographic high. Once high melting begins upstream of the ridge, only near-zero melt rates can stop the retreat, indicating a possible hysteresis in the system. Our results suggest that unstable and irreversible responses to warm anomalies are possible and can lead to substantial changes in ice flux over relatively short periods of only a few decades.

Harnessing the Power of Gaming to Influence Policies Addressing Climate Change

In this paper, the authors present the findings of an empirical case study examining the efficacy of the Games Realising Effective & Affective Transformation (GREAT) Case Study design process. The process is underpinned by an established Mixed Methodological Research (MMR) framework for eliciting the preferences of gamers and determining their priorities in climate change policies. Funded by the Horizon Europe programme, the GREAT Project examines the impact and affordances of games for social engagement. The project explores the innovative potential of games as new forms of dialogue between citizens and policy stakeholders. The games are used as tools for players to express their preferences and actively shape policy issues. We present the first case study on this approach, which is one of ten to be undertaken with various partners over the next two years to test and validate the methodology, investigate its potential, and present findings. In partnership with the popular PC & Console game Smite, by the Hi Rez, game development studio. The study involved stakeholders’ participation in the co-creation of research questions, designed to influence the prioritisation of future climate policies. The activity was embedded the Smite game playing community via the Playmob platform in January 2024 and engaged over four thousand active players with a completed response rate of 58 %. Quantitative analysis of the data collected during this period will be presented by the authors. In summary, the engagement in and completion rates of the activity were high, validating the initial GREAT project approach. The methodological approach and the substantive data sets produced are of interest to any organisation considering engaging diverse groups active in gaming communities in the political process, including NGOs and policymakers. The project and methodology applied is at the core of this paper.

Climate change may make pine wilt disease more prevalent

Abstract Pine wilt disease is one of the most severe and devastating diseases affecting pine forests worldwide, resulting in huge economic losses in many countries. The pinewood nematode (PWN), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, is the causal agent of pine wilt disease and is obligately vectored by pine sawyer beetles, of the genus Monochamus. For the disease to be present, the habitat must be suitable for the PWN, and include at least one vector species, and at least one host species. To predict its potential distribution, a model must consider all three components. However, no comprehensive study has examined the influence of climatic suitability on the distribution of this “biological complex”. This study addresses this gap by incorporating biotic interactions, specifically involving 13 vectors and 61 host plants, into projections based on the PWN model. We predicted the global potential distribution of pine wilt disease and compared it with the PWN model to highlight the importance of including biotic interactions in species distribution models under climate change. We found that the model revealed an overall trend of increasing suitability scores for both the PWN and pine wilt disease models under future climate scenarios. Furthermore, compared to the PWN model, the biotic model results in an apparent increase in suitability worldwide in the future as the climate will be more suitable to vector and host complexes, suggesting that pine wilt disease could potentially spread to other places via available hosts and vectors. Synthesis and applications. By incorporating biotic interactions, we projected a more accurate suitable area for pine wilt disease, offering valuable insights into regions at high risk for future invasions by the disease and its vectors. This information supports the development of management and early detection strategies in areas of high suitability, helping to mitigate potential economic and ecological losses. Additionally, this study introduces a novel approach for integrating biotic factors into species distribution models.

Quantifying Climate Change Variability for the Better Management of Water Resources: The Case of Kobo Valley, Danakil Basin, Ethiopia

Alterations in the hydrological cycle due to climate change are one of the key threats to the future accessibility of natural resources. This study used 12 GCM climate models from CMIP6 to evaluate future climate change scenarios by applying model performance measures and trend analysis in Kobo Valley, Ethiopia. The models were ranked based on their ability to analyze the historical datasets. The result of this study showed that the outputs of the FIO-ESM-2-0 CIMP6 model had a good overall ranking for both precipitation and temperature. After bias correction of the model-based projections with the observed data, the average annual precipitation in the average scenario (SSP2-4.5) decreased by 4.4% and 13% in 2054 and 2084, respectively. Similarly, in the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5), by the end of 2054 and 2084, decreases of 4% and 12.8%, respectively, were predicted. The average annual maximum temperature under the SSP2-4.5 scenario increased by 1.5 °C in 2054 and by 2.1 °C in 2084. The average annual maximum temperature under the worst-case (SSP5-8.5) scenario increased by 1.7 °C in 2054 and by 3.2 °C in 2084. In the middle scenario (SSP4.5), the average annual minimum temperature increased by 2.2 °C in 2054 and by 3 °C in 2084. The average annual minimum temperature under the worst-case (SSP5-8.5) scenario increased by 2.6 °C in 2054 and by 4.3 °C in 2084. The seasonal variability in precipitation in the studied valley will decrease in the winter and increase in the summer. A decrease in precipitation combined with an increase in temperature will strengthen the risk of drought events in the future.

Spatial distribution projections of suitable environmental conditions for key Baltic Sea zooplankton species

AbstractEnvironmental changes reshape biological communities, inducing cascading effects throughout the food webs. These changes pressure species either to adapt or to track favorable habitats. Estuaries represent an interesting case study to investigate such responses as species will rapidly reach physical boundaries if they cannot adapt fast enough and need to track suitable conditions. One such estuary is the Baltic Sea, characterized by a salinity and temperature gradient that shapes species distribution and imposes physiological stress on organisms. The Baltic Sea is projected to be affected by substantial modifications in environmental conditions by the end of the 21st century, which could have major consequences for species distribution and community composition. However, despite the impending changes and their potential impact, there is a gap in understanding the potential consequences on pelagic species of the Baltic Sea. This study employs long‐term observations of primary zooplankton species in the pelagic food web to model changes in their distribution under future climate projections. We found that the parameters having the largest influence on habitat suitability varied across species, although maximal temperature was the most important for six out of seven species. In addition, there was a shrinkage of suitable area for several key species driven by a decrease in salinity and a rise in water temperature. We discuss the complex interplay between environmental changes and the spatial distribution of pelagic species in the Baltic Sea, highlighting the need for proactive management strategies to mitigate potential ecological impacts in the face of future climate scenarios.

Southern African precipitation changes in a warmer world: insights from the PlioMIP2 mid-Pliocene Warm Period (∼3.3–3.0 Ma) ensemble

Near-modern geography and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (∼400 ppmv) coupled with temperatures ∼3°C warmer than the pre-Industrial era are suggested to make the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.264–3.025 Ma) an important near-future climate change analogue. To date, however, few studies explore mPWP hydroclimatic characteristics for the full southern Africa area using proxy records and/or Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) climate projections. Hence, we analyse precipitation outputs from 17 PlioMIP phase 2 models to explore southern African mPWP precipitation changes compared to pre-Industrial outputs. Despite diverse inter-model changes, robust signals exist. Most models project annual precipitation declines, up to 0.5 mm/day in the ensemble median. Drying of a similar magnitude for the summer (October-March) and winter (April-September) half-year periods contribute to this change, with models more consistently projecting winter drying. Consequently, the summer and winter precipitation zones (SRZ and WRZ) are projected to shift poleward by ∼1°. For WRZ regions, relatively stable summer precipitation and reduced winter precipitation is projected to result in reduced seasonality. Over SRZ regions, early (late) summer precipitation declines (increases) projected for October–December (January–March) re-organise the summer wet-season to be more concentrated in late summer. Qualitatively good consistency with future projections highlights the mPWPs relevance considering southern Africa’s future climate changes, however, limited model-proxy agreement suggests a need to further (re)assess Pliocene (mPWP) proxy records and/or the PlioMIP2 model boundary conditions towards better capturing mechanisms driving mPWP climatic changes.

Effect of Soil Moisture on Future Heatwaves Over Eastern China: Convection‐Permitting Regional Climate Simulations

AbstractSoil moisture deficiencies exacerbate heatwaves through soil moisture‐temperature feedback, an effect that is expected to intensify with climate change, resulting in critical impacts on society and ecosystems. This study aims to investigate the evolving soil moisture‐heatwave relationship over eastern China in the future, using a convection‐permitting (CP, ∼4 km) regional climate model (RCM). The CP‐RCM model simulates historical (1998–2007) and future (2070–2099) climates over eastern China, with three pseudo‐global warming (PGW) experiments conducted under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results indicate a substantial increase in heatwave frequency (HWF) and magnitude (HWM) over eastern China, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario. The largest HWF (up to 23 days) is expected in South China (SC), and the largest HWM (up to 3.25°C) is expected in Loess Plateau (LP) and North China Plain (NCP), indicating a pronounced future risk of heatwave in the region. Antecedent soil moisture exhibits a negative correlation with heatwave indices (HWM and HWF) in most areas of eastern China, suggesting its role in mitigating heatwaves. Quantile regression analysis shows that antecedent soil moisture exerts a stronger effect on the upper quantile of the HWF/HWM than on the lower quantile. With global warming, the amplifying effect due to soil moisture deficiency on future heatwaves is expected to expand spatially and become more pronounced. Increased soil moisture control on heatwaves can be attributed to reduced energy limitation and intensified water limitation. A comprehensive investigation across five sub‐regions reveals the role of various soil moisture regimes in modulating heatwaves over eastern China.

Late Pleistocene to early Holocene vegetation and environmental changes in the tropical Leizhou Peninsula, South China: New evidence from the n-alkane record

Understanding past long-term vegetation responses to regional or even global climate change and forcing mechanisms is essential to future climate change projections. However, due to the lack of long-term terrestrial sedimentary records, there are few studies focusing on vegetation changes in tropical southern China since the last glacial period, especially from the perspective of peat n-alkane records. Here, we have presented a peat core record from the Xialu peatland in the northern Leizhou Peninsula, and n-alkanes were investigated in conjunction with multiple proxy indicators. Our results showed that the organic matter sources were mainly a mixture of aquatic and terrestrial vegetation, with terrestrial vegetation accounting for most of the bulk organic matter composition. From ∼44.1 to 29 cal kyr BP, the organic matter source was mainly dominated by terrestrial vegetation, which corresponds to warm and humid conditions. From 29 to 14 cal kyr BP, the input of the terrestrial vegetation was reduced, the aquatic vegetation input increased, implying cool and dry conditions. From 14 to 9.3 cal kyr BP, the climate gradually became warmer and wetter, and terrestrial vegetation dominated in this area. Overall, the climatic conditions from the Xialu peatland were generally consistent with other records from adjacent areas. Our results suggest that, during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a substantial drop in regional and global sea levels may have been the main cause of drought in tropical southern China on orbital timescales. Meanwhile, several climatic fluctuations on millennial timescales could have been influenced by the variability of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

The effects of climate change on Pinus tabulaeformis radial growth in the Xiaowutai Mountains, northern China

Clarifying the climate change effects on the radial growth of trees has implications for sustainable forest management, especially under global warming. To investigate tree growth responses to regional climate change of Xiaowutai Mountain, four Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) ring-width index chronologies were established at different elevations (1290–1600 m). Species growth trends were estimated using climate change projections derived from global climate models. The results show: (1) the four ring-width chronologies exhibited strong statistical characteristics, making them suitable for dendroclimatology studies. Radial growth-climate relationships were highly consistent, showing a negative correlation with previous September temperatures and current May–June temperatures, as well as a positively correlated with precipitation and Palmer Drought Severity Index during the corresponding period; and (2) climate change scenarios revealed that temperature will gradually increase on the Xiaowutai Mountain, and only a slight variation in precipitation is expected. Chinese pine radial growth may show a decline under future climate change.

Necromass responses to warming: A faster microbial turnover in favor of soil carbon stabilisation

Microbial byproducts and residues (hereafter ‘necromass’) potentially play the most critical role in soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, little is known about the influence of climate warming on necromass accumulation in the agroecosystem and the underlying mechanisms associated with microbial life strategies. In order to address these knowledge gaps, we used amino sugars as biomarkers of microbial necromass, and investigated their variation through an 8-year trial in an agroecosystem with two warming levels (+1.6 and + 3.2 °C) compared to ambient temperature. The results showed that the lower warming level had no impact on total microbial necromass carbon. Conversely, warming the soil 3.2 °C above ambient increased total microbial necromass by 17 % and its contribution to SOC by 21.3 %, mainly by increasing fungal necromass (+19.8 %), whereas +3.2 °C warming had no impact on bacterial necromass. At the phylum level, compared with the ambient control, +3.2 °C warming induced an increase in the abundance of Proteobacteria and a decrease in both Acidobacteria and Actinobacteria, whereas in the fungal community, Ascomycota increased and Mortierellomycota decreased. This indicates that r-strategists outcompete K-strategists in warmer climates, which led to increased microbial necromass production and accumulation, as supported by the positive correlation between r-strategists and microbial necromass. Stronger microbial competition for resources also resulted in a higher biomass turnover rate, greater cell death, and greater production of microbial necromass. This was supported by the lower bacterial and fungal network complexity and trophic links under warming conditions. In addition, the necromass generated from accelerated microbial turnover further offsets warming-induced deceases in microbial biomass. Consequently, bulk SOC did not change, despite microbial necromass having a much greater response to warming than the soil C pool. Therefore, future climate warming may influence the composition and persistence of SOC during microbial degradation.

Optimising building performance for a resilient Future: A Multi-Objective approach to Net Zero energy strategies

The escalating impacts of climate change on urban environments underscore the imperative for energy-efficient buildings. As the building sector constitutes approximately 40% of global energy consumption, the implementation of NZE designs is critical for emission reduction. This study utilised Building Performance Optimisation methodologies alongside a multi-stage optimisation framework to evaluate energy consumption, Life cycle cost and carbon emissions under various climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) in three Algerian cities—Constantine (semi-arid), Algiers (Mediterranean), and Ghardaïa (arid).The results revealed that the integration of passive, active, and renewable energy strategies significantly curtailed energy consumption and CO2 emissions across different climatic contexts. Specifically, passive measures achieved reductions in energy use ranging from 39% in Ghardaïa to 15% in Constantine. Active systems, including high-efficiency HVAC technologies, resulted in energy savings of 59% in Ghardaïa, 52% in Algiers, and 47% in Constantine. Furthermore, renewable energy sources, with a focus on solar photovoltaics, contributed additional reductions: 44% in Algiers, 26% in Ghardaïa, and 20% in Constantine. The multi-stage optimisation approach also enhanced computational efficiency, significantly reducing simulation time and facilitating the rapid identification of optimal strategies.These findings highlight the efficacy of integrating a range of energy strategies to achieve NZE. Nevertheless, while these systems demonstrate robust performance under current conditions, their effectiveness diminishes under future climate scenarios, underscoring the necessity for adaptive and resilient design approaches. Ongoing optimisation and innovation will be essential to maintaining the efficacy of NZE strategies in the face of extreme future climate conditions.

How do global forest pests respond to increasing temperatures? – a meta‐analysis

Biotic disturbances caused by insects and pathogens have a major impact on forests in the Northern Hemisphere. Knowledge of the effects of increasing temperature on the performance of these forest pests will thus be crucial for predicting future disturbance risks. Here, we systematically review the direct effects of increasing temperatures on four functional subgroups of forest pests, including leaf chewers, sap suckers, bark and wood borers, and pathogens. We considered 118 studies (2003–2022) representing 72 pest species feeding on 33 host genera from sub‐tropical, temperate and boreal forests in Asia, Europe and North America. Based on a subset of 89 studies reporting the required data, we conducted a meta‐analysis 1) distinguishing the functional subgroups, and 2) considering the main life‐history traits, i.e. development, fitness and survival. A temperature corresponding to the expected mean temperature during the growing season in the years 2081–2100 had a significant positive effect on the overall performance of leaf chewers (+18%) and bark and wood borers (+10%), while sap suckers and pathogens remained unaffected. In contrast, performance was not or even significantly negatively affected when a more pronounced temperature increase, i.e. corresponding to the temperature maxima in 2081–2100, was considered. This finding reflects the non‐linear temperature–performance relationship beyond currently evolved temperature optima in insects and pathogens. Furthermore, we showed that differential responses of life‐history traits to increased temperatures may counterbalance each other (e.g. development versus survival), highlighting the importance of a multi‐trait approach to assessing the impact of global warming on pest performance. By quantifying the effects of increasing temperatures on forest pest performance, our results facilitate the prediction of biotic disturbance impacts in a future climate. For instance, they could provide a valuable contribution to the parameterization of large‐scale ecosystem models, which often do not explicitly consider the response of biotic disturbances to climate change.

Maxent modelling reveals suitable habitat remains unchanged for Carcinus maenas in Australia

ABSTRACT This study assesses the habitat suitability of the invasive green crab, Carcinus maenas, in Australia using MaxEnt modelling under current and future climate scenarios. The species has significant ecological impacts, displacing native species and altering habitats. Using 90 occurrence points from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, the MaxEnt model shows high performance (Area Under the Curve value of 0.99), indicating reliable predictions. Currently, the green crab's habitat suitability along the Australian coast ranges from high to medium in Tasmania, Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia and low in Western Australia and South Queensland. Future projections suggest a decrease in suitable habitats, confined to Tasmania, Victoria, Adelaide and New South Wales. These findings can guide the development of long-term management and conservation plans for C. maenas, with an emphasis on areas with consistent habitat suitability. Additionally, further field and laboratory experiments are recommended to understand the species’ tolerance to environmental changes. Recognising the ecological impact of C. maenas is crucial for informed decision-making to preserve Australia's ecosystems and ensure the sustainable coexistence of native species amidst invasive threats.

Reconciling water-use efficiency estimates from carbon isotope discrimination of leaf biomass and tree rings: nonphotosynthetic fractionation matters.

Carbon isotope discrimination (∆) in leaf biomass (∆BL) and tree rings (∆TR) provides important proxies for plant responses to climate change, specifically in terms of intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). However, the nonphotosynthetic 12C/13C fractionation in plant tissues has rarely been quantified and its influence on iWUE estimation remains uncertain. We derived a comprehensive, ∆ based iWUE model (iWUEcom) which includes nonphotosynthetic fractionations (d) and characterized tissue-specific d-values based on global compilations of data of ∆BL, ∆TR and real-time ∆ in leaf photosynthesis (∆online). iWUEcom was further validated with independent datasets. ∆BL was larger than ∆online by 2.53‰, while ∆BL and ∆TR showed a mean offset of 2.76‰, indicating that ∆TR is quantitatively very similar to ∆online. Applying the tissue-specific d-values (dBL = 2.5‰, dTR = 0‰), iWUE estimated from ∆BL aligned well with those estimated from ∆TR or gas exchange. ∆BL and ∆TR showed a consistent iWUE trend with an average CO2 sensitivity of 0.15 ppm ppm-1 during 1975-2015. Accounting for nonphotosynthetic fractionations improves the estimation of iWUE based on isotope records in leaf biomass and tree rings, which is ultimate for inferring changes in carbon and water cycles under historical and future climate.

Global assessment of interannual variability in coastal urban areas and ecosystems

Abstract Both seasonal and extreme climate conditions are influenced by long-term natural internal variability. However, in general, long-term hazard variation has not been incorporated into coastal risk assessments. There are coastal regions of high interest, such as urban areas, where a large number of people are exposed to hydrometeorological hazards, and ecosystems, which provide protection, where long-term natural variability should be considered a design factor. In this study, we systematized climate analysis to identify high-interest regions where hazard long-term variability should be considered in risk assessment, disaster reduction, and future climate change adaptation and protection designs. To achieve this goal, we examined the effect of the leading modes of climate variability (Arctic Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation) on the variation in the recurrence of extreme coastal hazard events, including as a first step sea surface temperature, winds, and waves. Neglecting long-term variability could potentially lead to the underperformance of solutions, or even irreversible damage that compromises the conditions of ecosystems for which nature-based solutions are designed.