Predicting Gross Primary Productivity under Future Climate Change for the Tibetan Plateau Based on Convolutional Neural Networks

Abstract

Gross primary productivity (GPP) is vital for ecosystems and the global carbon cycle, serving as a sensitive indicator of ecosystems’ responses to climate change. However, the impact of future climate changes on GPP in the Tibetan Plateau, an ecologically important and climatically sensitive region, remains underexplored. This study aimed to develop a data-driven approach to predict the seasonal and annual variations in GPP in the Tibetan Plateau up to the year 2100 under changing climatic conditions. A convolutional neural network (CNN) was employed to investigate the relationships between GPP and various environmental factors, including climate variables, CO2 concentrations, and terrain attributes. This study analyzed the projected seasonal and annual GPP from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four future scenarios: SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5. The results suggest that the annual GPP is expected to significantly increase throughout the 21st century under all future climate scenarios. By 2100, the annual GPP is projected to reach 1011.98 Tg C, 1032.67 Tg C, 1044.35 Tg C, and 1055.50 Tg C under the four scenarios, representing changes of 0.36%, 4.02%, 5.55%, and 5.67% relative to 2021. A seasonal analysis indicates that the GPP in spring and autumn shows more pronounced growth under the SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios due to the extended growing season. Furthermore, the study identified an elevation band between 3000 and 4500 m that is particularly sensitive to climate change in terms of the GPP response. Significant GPP increases would occur in the east of the Tibetan Plateau, including the Qilian Mountains and the upper reaches of the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers. These findings highlight the pivotal role of climate change in driving future GPP dynamics in this region. These insights not only bridge existing knowledge gaps regarding the impact of future climate change on the GPP of the Tibetan Plateau over the coming decades but also provide valuable guidance for the formulation of climate adaptation strategies aimed at ecological conservation and carbon management.