Future Changes Research Articles

Stand dynamics of old-growth hemlock forests in central Bhutan are shaped by natural disturbances

Understanding how past disturbances have influenced the development of forests is critical for deciphering their current structure and composition and forecasting future changes. In this study, dendrochronological methods were applied to uncover the disturbance history of old-growth hemlock-dominated forests in central Bhutan. Analysis of tree-ring samples from two old-growth hemlock stands, located in two different topographic settings, identified the importance of gap-phase dynamics in facilitating recruitment and growth releases and producing complex, multi-aged structures over time. One site showed evidence of a near stand-replacing disturbance in the late 1700s, while the other showed no evidence of high-severity disturbance at any time over the last 500 years. At both sites low- to medium-severity disturbances, some of which appear to be associated with cyclones originating in the Bay of Bengal, dominated the disturbance regime. The hemlock stands exhibited a significant positive association between cyclone occurrence and growth release events and between recruitment pulses and growth release events. From 1800–1970 there was an increase in recruitment of angiosperm tree species at most sites and a corresponding decline in conifer recruitment. Over the past 50 years there has been little new recruitment; this may be due to light limitation in the understory from shade-tolerant angiosperms and bamboo in the lower strata of these stands. Significant variations in disturbance dynamics and recruitment were observed across the study sites, suggesting that other factors, such as topography and climate, may be influencing long-term stand development patterns. This study highlights the complex interplay between historical disturbance regimes and tree recruitment in shaping the age and size structures of old-growth hemlock forests in central Bhutan. It also provides new insights into the dynamics of these forests that can be used to support effective forest conservation and management in the future.

Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion

The majority of signatories to The United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2021 (COP26) made a declaration to end deforestation by 2030. Here, we quantify future changes in land use and associated CO2 emissions to examine the impact of ending deforestation by 2030 on global land dynamics and emissions using an open-source land-use model. We show that if the COP26 declaration to end deforestation is fully implemented globally, about 167 Mha of deforestation could be avoided until 2050, compared to a baseline scenario which does not have extended forest protection. However, avoided deforestation and associated emissions come at the cost of strongly increased conversion of unprotected non-forested land to agricultural land, while land-use intensification in most regions is similar compared to a baseline scenario. Global initiatives are needed to facilitate a common dialogue on addressing the possible carbon emissions and non-forest leakage effects due to the expedited loss of non-forested land under a policy aimed at halting deforestation by 2030.

Come rain or come shine, the species richness will decline in the Moroccan mountains

Plant species richness in mountainous regions generally follows a unimodal distribution with lower values at both low and high altitudes in relation to precipitation. In the Atlas mountains, Morocco, plant species richness is currently highest at 800-1200m elevation, but the extent and altitudinal limits of this species-rich belt have shifted in the past with climate change.Here, we trace the evolution of pollen taxonomic richness (PTR) as a proxy for plant species richness, with the aim of understanding the relationship with climatic changes over the past 19,000 years, and make some assumptions about future changes in species richness. Past PTR was inferred through an analogy with an extensive modern pollen dataset, and past climatic variables were reconstructed from a fossil record collected in the Middle Atlas, Morocco.We found that the current PTR distribution in Morocco is more closely associated with precipitation than with temperature. During the last glacial period, both PTR and annual precipitation were low, and the analogs were located at lower altitudes than the altitude of the fossil record. During the early Holocene, the PTR increased by approximately 15%, and the modern analogs were found approximately 600 to 800 meters higher than the analogs of the last glacial period. After 6,000 years BP, we observe a steady decline in annual precipitation of approximately 30%, resulting in a species richness loss of approximately 18% and a retreat of the upper boundary of the species-rich belt.Climate projections suggest that annual precipitation in Northwest Africa will decrease by 20-30% over the next 50 years, an annual amount comparable to that of the last glacial period, but under much warmer conditions and in a significantly shorter time. Such a decline in precipitation could result in an unprecedented loss of plant species richness of approximately 15% in just a few decades and put 35% of the protected areas at risk. The forested mountains above 1600 meters could then resemble the treeless and less diverse steppes found at higher altitudes above today's tree line.

Assemblages of planktonic cnidarians in winter and their relationship to environmental conditions in the NW Mediterranean Sea

In the present study, we addressed the spatial characterization and species assemblages of the planktonic cnidarian community (Siphonophorae, Hydromedusae, and Scyphomedusae) in winter, a period that has been the subject of few studies in the NW Mediterranean. Data were obtained on two oceanographic cruises, in February 2017 and 2018. In 2017, the early onset of spring conditions and the subsequent phytoplankton bloom favored a mixture of winter and spring species, resulting in a higher species richness but a lower abundance of cnidarians. However, the typical winter oceanographic conditions in 2018 allowed winter species populations to develop, leading to a higher abundance of cnidarians that year. The most abundant species in both winters were Lensia subtilis, Muggiaea kochii, Chelophyes appendiculata, Abylopsis tetragona (eudoxid), Aglaura hemistoma, and Velella velella rataria larvae, while Obelia spp. was particularly numerous in 2017. In both years, the cluster and redundancy analyses showed a coastal-offshore ordination in species assemblages resulting from the effect of environmental variables (particularly bathymetry) and oceanographic structures (water masses and the shelf-slope density front). The presence of submarine canyons, in which great depths are reached close to the coast, modified the circulation patterns, resulting in a mixture of coastal and offshore species in these areas. In the current scenario of global warming, our results will help to provide a baseline for identifying future changes in the structure of the planktonic cnidarian community.

Future Climate Change Impacts on Rice in Uttar Pradesh, India's Most Populous Agrarian State

AbstractUttar Pradesh, with a population of 237 million, is the largest agrarian state in India, located in the Indo‐Gangetic plains. Rice cultivation is widespread across all districts of Uttar Pradesh, which have varying climate regimes, irrigation infrastructures, crop management practices, and farm sizes. The state is characterized by different agroecological zones (AEZs) with semi‐arid to sub‐humid climates with significant variability in monsoon rainfall. In this study, the impact of climate change on Kharif‐season rice is estimated using crop‐climate scenarios in Uttar Pradesh. A process‐based Crop Simulation Model, Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis‐Rice, was simulated with bias‐corrected and downscaled climate data for historical (1995–2014) and three future periods (the 2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) for two mitigation pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6. Phenology, irrigation amount, crop evapotranspiration, yield, and water use efficiency were evaluated and assessed for all AEZs. Based on the ensemble of 16 climate models, rainfed rice yield increased in the AEZs of western Uttar Pradesh due to increased rainfall, while in eastern Uttar Pradesh yield decreased, under both shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Irrigated rice yield decreased in all AEZs under both SSPs due to an increase in temperature and a decrease in the length of the growing period, with reductions of up to 20% by the 2090s. Irrigation requirements decreased from the 2030s to the 2090s due to increased rainfall and decreased crop evapotranspiration. Despite the projected increase in rainfed yield, the overall rice yield is expected to decrease in the future under both SSPs.

Seedling dynamics differ between canopy species and understory species in a tropical seasonal rainforest, SW China

We used 11 years of census data from 450 seedling quadrats established in a 20-ha forest dynamics plot to study seedling dynamics in tree species of a tropical seasonal rainforest in Xishuangbanna, southwestern China. We found that overall seedling recruitment rate and relative growth rate were higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. Both the recruitment rate of seedlings from canopy tree species (two species) and the relative growth rate of seedlings from understory species (nine species) were higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. However, in the rainy season, the recruitment rate of seedlings was higher for canopy tree species than for understory tree species. In addition, relative growth rate of seedlings was higher in the canopy species than in understory seedlings in the dry season. We also observed that, in both rainy and dry seasons, mortality rate of seedlings was higher for canopy species than for understory species. Overall, canopy tree species appear to have evolved a flexible strategy to adapt to the seasonal changes of a monsoon climate. In contrast, understory tree species seem to have adopted a conservative strategy. Specifically, these species mainly release seedlings in the rainy season and maintain relatively stable populations with a lower mortality rate and recruitment rate in both dry and rainy seasons. Our study suggests that canopy and understory seedling populations growing in forest understory may respond to future climate change scenarios with distinct regeneration strategies.

Relationships between snowpack, low flows and stream temperature in mountain watersheds of the US west coast

AbstractWater temperatures in mountain streams are likely to rise under future climate change, with negative impacts on ecosystems and water quality. However, it is difficult to predict which streams are most vulnerable due to sparse historical records of mountain stream temperatures as well as complex interactions between snowpack, groundwater, streamflow and water temperature. Minimum flow volumes are a potentially useful proxy for stream temperature, since daily streamflow records are much more common. We confirmed that there is a strong inverse relationship between annual low flows and peak water temperature using observed data from unimpaired streams throughout the montane regions of the United States' west coast. We then used linear models to explore the relationships between snowpack, potential evapotranspiration and other climate‐related variables with annual low flow volumes and peak water temperatures. We also incorporated previous years' flow volumes into these models to account for groundwater carryover from year to year. We found that annual peak snowpack water storage is a strong predictor of summer low flows in the more arid watersheds studied. This relationship is mediated by atmospheric water demand and carryover subsurface water storage from previous years, such that multi‐year droughts with high evapotranspiration lead to especially low flow volumes. We conclude that watershed management to help retain snow and increase baseflows may help counteract some of the streamflow temperature rises expected from a warming climate, especially in arid watersheds.

Effects of landscape, resource use, and body size on genetic structure in bee populations.

Quantifying genetic structure and levels of genetic variation are fundamentally important to predicting the ability of populations to persist in human-altered landscapes and adapt to future environmental changes. Genetic structure reflects the dispersal of individuals over generations, which can be mediated by species-level traits or environmental factors. Dispersal distances are commonly positively associated with body size and negatively associated with the amount of degraded habitat between sites, motivating the investigation of these potential drivers of dispersal concomitantly. We quantified genetic structure and genetic variability within populations of seven bee species from the genus Euglossa across fragmented landscapes. We genotyped bees at SNP loci and tested the following predictions: (1) deforested areas restrict gene flow; (2) larger species have lower genetic structure; (3) species with greater resource specialization have higher genetic structure; and (4) sites surrounded by more intact habitat have higher genetic diversity. Contrasting with previous work on bees, we found no associations between body size and genetic structure. Genetic structure was higher for species with greater resource specialization, and the amount of intact habitat between or surrounding sites was positively associated with parameters reflecting gene flow and genetic diversity. These results challenge the dominant paradigm that individuals of larger species disperse farther, and they suggest that landscape and resource requirements are important factors mediating dispersal.

Predicting Undergraduates’ willingness to engage in dangerous e-scooter use behaviors

IntroductionThe misuse of electronic scooters (e-scooters), particularly among young adults, is increasingly being linked to hospital admissions and injuries in cities across the globe. Yet, despite growing concern about dangerous e-scooter use, there remains a dearth of research on the determinants of engaging in risky behaviors while using an e-scooter. MethodA sample of 262 Australian undergraduate students completed measures relating to the theory of planned behavior, risk perceptions, and knowledge of laws in the context of three e-scooter risk behaviors: riding over the speed limit on footpaths, riding without a helmet, and riding after consuming alcohol, as well as a risk identity implicit association test. Participants then recorded their willingness to engage in each of the three behaviors. ResultsThe model predicted a modest portion of variance in willingness to engage in each of the three e-scooter risk behaviors. Subjective norm predicted all behaviors, while attitude, risk perceptions, and perceived behavioral control each predicted two of the three behaviors. Gender had a significant total effect on willingness for each behavior, partially mediated by the theory of planned behavior constructs, while knowledge of laws had minimal effects and only on helmet use. ConclusionsSocial cognition factors show promise in explaining willingness to engage in dangerous e-scooter use and may provide an important formative basis for future research and behavior change interventions to reduce such risky behaviors.

Climate Change Will Aggravate South Asian Cropland Exposure to Drought by the Middle of 21st Century

AbstractDrought has a paramount impact on global agriculture and food security. However, the study on future cropland areas that can incur drought is inadequate. This paper uses input parameters from 7 CMIP6 models for 7 future scenarios (SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP4‐3.4, SSP2‐4.5, SSP4‐6.0, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) to measure South Asian cropland exposure to drought and its underlying factors. Some defined epochs such as 2021–2040 (near‐term), 2041–2060 (mid‐term), 2081–2100 (long‐term), and 1995–2014 (reference period) are designed to explore diverse outlooks of the change. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and the Run theory methods are applied to detect drought. Results indicate an intensified cropland (under SSP4‐3.4, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) in the Indo‐Gangetic Plain region of South Asia, where mostly the variation occurs among scenarios and periods. Notably, the future cropland exposed to drought will increase in the 2021–2040, and 2041–2060 periods, but it intends to decline during the 2081–2100. Relatively, the exposed cropland will upturn highest by 49.2% (SSP3‐7.0) in the mid‐term period and decrease by −8.2% (SSP5‐8.5) in the end future. Spatially, distributed cropland in the central, south‐west, and portion of the northeast of South Asia are subjective to be exposed largely, but it can drop greatly across the eastern part by the end future. Importantly, the climate change effect plays a grounding role in future exposure change over the region during the near to mid‐term periods, while the cropland change effect is predominant in the long‐term perspectives. However, these findings signify the urgency of policymaking focusing on drought mitigation to ensure food security.

Linking physical climate risk with mandatory business risk disclosure requirements

Mandatory disclosure of physical climate risks to businesses is planned or being implemented in many countries. This raises the question, how viable is it to link increasing physical climate risk, expressed as extreme events, to an individual business. We demonstrate how the characteristics of increasing frequency, magnitude and duration of extreme events impact a hypothetical business supply chain using the analogy of a spider’s web, where an extreme event impacting a strand of the web (supply/market line) impacts the efficiency of the web (supply chain). We demonstrate that our hypothetical business, located in the centre of the web, can be unaffected by a very large number of extreme events, or be severely impacted by a small number of events, depending on exactly where the event occurs and the properties of the event. This implies that a business cannot assess physical climate risk based on a change in the frequency of events; the business needs to know the precise location of the events, as well as the magnitude and duration of each event. This information is not available and is unlikely to ever be available from climate model projections. Therefore, individual businesses required to disclose future physical climate risk are very unlikely to be able to provide useful quantitative assessments. We recommend that a business-specific storyline approach to future risk is used where multiple lines of evidence are woven into a risk assessment, including climate projections. Generic top–down prescriptions of future scenarios are very likely to lead to misrepresentation of risk and very poor outcomes for business, investors or financial regulators seeking to build resilience to future climate change.

Analyzing energy consumption due to occupant interaction with manual and automatic window blinds in multiple climates

Proper daylight management through automated or manual blind systems can enhance user comfort and energy conservation. Furthermore, the influence of weather conditions, coupled with occupant behavior, significantly impacts energy consumption, rendering weather forecasts invaluable in conducting individual building energy simulations to identify energy-efficient strategies for the future. Also, I wonder if it is possible to move some items from room 308 until you can provide items from other resources. Future weather conditions and their impact on building performance can be evaluated using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This research aimed to compare the energy usage of manual and automated window blinds with internal blinds in mid-size office buildings across four main climate zones (2B Hot-Dry; 2A Hot-Humid; 7 Very Cold; 4A Mixed-Humid) in the USA under current and future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5, 8.5). Utilizing simulation as the methodology and comparing the energy use resulting from the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios revealed that the most significant decrease in heating energy usage was happening in the Hot-Humid zone with Automated blinds, which is a more efficient alternative than manual Blinds. In contrast, the Very Cold zone experienced almost no changes in either heating or cooling energy consumption. In Climate Zones 2B Hot-Dry and 7 Very Cold, rising temperatures lead to increased cooling energy requirements and reduced heating demands due to climate changes. Climate Zone 4A Mixed-Humid saw reduced energy consumption for cooling but increased usage for heating, particularly under RCP 8.5. In Zone 2A Hot-Humid, a high demand for heating energy was found.

Effects of water-table changes following rainfall events on arsenic fate and transport in groundwater–surface water mixing zones

This study investigated the effects of groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions on the fate and transport of arsenic (As) following rainfall events and subsequent water-table changes in GW–SW mixing zones, comprising the riparian and hyporheic zones, near an abandoned gold mine. During the dry and wet periods, stream conditions changed from flow-through to gaining, respectively. Water-table changes caused by rainfall events controlled flow paths between riparian zones and the stream, affecting spatiotemporal variation in the redox and pH conditions of the aquatic environment. Subsequently, the fate and transport of As in GW–SW mixing zones was responsive to variations in redox and pH conditions. Through the oxidative dissolution of As-bearing sulfide minerals and the reductive dissolution of iron (Fe) oxides with adsorbed As, As was released into the groundwater in the riparian zones and transported to the stream and streambed along the baseflow discharge. However, As was also immobilized in the sediment through adsorption onto Fe-oxides and coprecipitation with calcium (Ca) and zinc (Zn), suggesting that the sediment acts as a sink-and-source of As in aquatic environments. Therefore, water-table changes and GW–SW interactions could play an important role in the fate and transport of As in aquatic environments, specifically groundwater–riparian–streambed–stream systems. The findings of this study will provide scientific insights into the mechanisms of As in aquatic environments, aiding in improved decision–making to ensure safe and sustainable water management in response to future climate change.

Impact of Dynamic Phytoplankton Stoichiometry on Global Scale Patterns of Nutrient Limitation, Nitrogen Fixation, and Carbon Export

AbstractPhytoplankton stoichiometry modulates the interaction between carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. Environmentally driven variations in phytoplankton C:N:P can alter biogeochemical cycling compared to expectations under fixed ratios. In fact, the assumption of fixed C:N:P has been linked to Earth System Model (ESM) biases and potential misrepresentation of responses to future change. Here we integrate key elements of the Adaptive Trait Optimization Model (ATOM) for phytoplankton stoichiometry with the Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry and Lower Trophics (COBALT) ocean biogeochemical model. Within a series of global ocean‐ice‐ecosystem retrospective simulations, ATOM‐COBALT reproduced observations of phytoplankton N:P, and compared to static ratios, exhibited reduced phytoplankton P‐limitation, enhanced N‐fixation, and increased low‐latitude export, improving consistency with observations and highlighting the biogeochemical implications of dynamic N:P. We applied ATOM‐COBALT to explore the impacts of different physiological mechanisms hypothesized to underlie N:P variation, finding that two mechanisms together drove the observed patterns: proportionality of P‐rich ribosomes in phytoplankton cells to growth rates and reductions in P‐storage during scarcity. A third mechanism which linked temperature with phytoplankton biomass allocations to non‐ribosomal proteins, led only to relatively modest impacts because this mechanism decreased the temperature dependence of phytoplankton growth rates, compensating for changes in N:P. We find that there are quantitative response differences that associate distinctive biogeochemical footprints with each mechanism, which are most apparent in highly productive low‐latitude regions. These results suggest that variable phytoplankton N:P makes phytoplankton productivity and export resilient to environmental changes, and support further research on the physiological and environmental drivers of phytoplankton stoichiometry and biogeochemical role.

Changes in the Typhoon Intensity under a Warming Climate: A Numerical Study of Typhoon Mangkhut

Abstract Accurately assessing cyclone intensity changes due to global warming is crucial for predicting and mitigating sequential hazards. This study develops a high-resolution, fully coupled air-sea model to investigate the impact of global warming on Super Typhoon Mangkhut (2018). A numerical sensitivity analysis is conducted using the Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) technique based on multiple global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 6 (CMIP6). Under ocean warming scenarios, the increasing average sea surface temperature (SST) by 2.26 °C, 2.44 °C, 3.45 °C, and 4.53 °C result in reductions in minimum sea-level pressure by 9.2 hPa, 10.6 hPa, 15.7 hPa, and 19.4 hPa, respectively, compared to the original state of Typhoon Mangkhut. Rising SST increases turbulent heat flux, to be specific, an average SST increase of 2.26-4.53 °C changes the turbulent heat flux into 177% to 272% of the original value. Besides, stronger winds enhance SST cooling, including upwelling and entrainment, leading to an increase in the mixed layer depth (MLD). Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) tends to be enhanced under the combined influences as the SST rises. An average increase in SST of 2.26 °C, 2.44 °C, 3.45 °C, and 4.53 °C leads to increase in TCHP of 9.94%, 9.85%, 14.67%, and 15.30%, respectively. However, future changes in atmospheric temperature and humidity will moderate typhoon intensification induced by ocean warming. Considering atmospheric conditions, the maximum wind speed decreases by approximately 10% compared to only considering ocean warming. Nevertheless, typhoon intensity is projected to strengthen under future climate change.

Changes in Future Rainfall over Southeast Asia Using the CMIP6 Multi-model Ensemble

A multi-model ensemble from the new CMIP6 models was utilized to determine the future changes in precipitation over Southeast Asia (SEA; longitude: 90°E–140°E, latitude: 15°S–30°N). The changes are computed for the three (3) future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100) under four (4) different scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5. Our results indicate that future rainfall in the SEA-averaged region could increase by about 4%, 5%, 6%, and 9% towards the end of the century relative to the present-day average (1995–2014) under SSP1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5, respectively. Among all scenarios, SSP3-7.0 widely shows remarkably dry conditions whereas SSP5-8.5 suggests extremely wet conditions on different time scales. A clear dissociation of wet and dry areas is expected in the far-term period (2081–2100). Changes in the annual cycle indicate that monsoon rainfall could experience significant increases. The study also emphasizes the importance of moisture flux convergence (MFC) in determining precipitation patterns across different seasons and regions. The results suggest that MFC plays a crucial role in the projected increase or decrease of rainfall in SEA regions. Spatial correlation of future global mean temperature (GMT) and rainfall have a high positive (negative) correlation in the north (south) latitudes. Changes in rainfall are found to be sensitive to GMT. The responses to future rainfall changes per degree Celsius of warming are at the rate of 8.9%, 6.3%, 3.6%, and 2.7% under SSP1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5, respectively.

Anthropogenic influence on seasonal extreme temperatures in eastern China at century scale

Due to the scarcity of observational data in the early 20th century, very limited research has explored the impact of human activities on temperature extremes at the regional scale. Here we used a newly developed homogenized near-surface air temperature dataset from the beginning of the 20th century to estimate the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures in eastern China and evaluate their anthropogenic influence based on models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We found clear increases in warm extremes and decreases in cold extremes since 1901 for both annual and seasonal mean temperatures, with more pronounced changes in recent decades. The most significant warming occurred in spring and winter, approximately double the smallest warming observed in autumn. The CMIP6 models generally replicated the century-scale warming in annual and seasonal temperature extremes, showing increases in the frequency and intensity of warm extremes and corresponding decreases in cold extremes. The optimal fingerprinting detections suggest that the century-scale warming can be clearly attributed to anthropogenic forcing, including changes in seasonal extreme temperatures. Most observed changes in extreme temperatures were attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, partially offset by a smaller negative impact from anthropogenic aerosol forcing, whereas natural forcing has played a minor role. These results provide important information for accurately projecting future changes in temperature extremes.

경영학 교육에서 문제중심학습의 적용 사례: 노사관계론

In a society facing unpredictable changes, demand for individuals has shifted from emphasizing past individual excellence to the ability to apply and adapt one's skills to current and future changes. Flexible mindsets and problem-solving abilities, along with the capacity to collaborate with others to resolve diverse issues arising from change, are now essential qualities sought in individuals. A new approach to education is required to cultivate talent that can thrive in the face of societal change. Traditional educational methods, which have been teacher-centric and focused on rote memorization, have led to passive attitudes among students and a lack of analytical and applicative thinking skills. To nurture competitive talents, there is a need to move away from conventional teacher-centric education and embrace learner-centric self-directed learning (Lee, 2004). This entails encouraging students to accumulate knowledge and information through voluntary efforts to foster intellectual and character development. This paper examines the effectiveness of applying problem-based learning in the field of management, a discipline that integrates theory and practice. It specifically explores how utilizing self-directed learning, in which students autonomously identify and resolve labor management issues occurring in real organizational settings, can yield positive outcomes.

Climate change impairs the effects of vegetation improvement on soil erosion control in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Water erosion is a wide ecosystem degradation threat for the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) region and surrounding areas. Climate wetting and vegetation greening in the QTP could have complex impacts on water erosion. However, there is limited information about the erosion dynamics under climate change and the effects of vegetation improvement on erosion control in this alpine region. By calibrating the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model, we estimated water erosion in the QTP and simulated future changes using different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP) scenarios. We showed intensified erosion and that the benefits of vegetation improvement to erosion control was impaired under climate change. Under the SSP585 scenario, annual water erosion in the QTP was predicted to increase by 0.35 t∙ha−1∙yr−1 and be dominated by an accelerative rise of rainfall erosivity (R factor of RUSLE). Compared with historical observations, the C factor of RUSLE under the SSP585 scenario was believed to reduce by 4.35 % on average during the 2081–2100 period, but predicted soil loss will increase by more than 90 %. Although more considerable vegetation improvement could occur under high climate forcing, there may also be more intensified rainfall erosivity and water erosion across the QTP than those under SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios. Our results suggest that mitigating climate change rather than vegetation improvement is essential to address climate-dominated ecosystem degradation threats such as water erosion in the QTP.

Assessing the efficiency of bird habitat conservation strategies in farmland ecosystems

Land use changes negatively impact agroecosystems, where the loss of wildlife habitats is increasingly threatening global biodiversity. Ecological conservation strategies that seek to reduce habitat destruction are important and strongly rely on understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use change. In recent years, an expert-based approach using the Analytic Network Process (ANP) has been applied commonly to wildlife habitat assessment, and the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s) model is a well-known simulation tool used to predict land use dynamics. Although their effectiveness has been proven widely, existing studies have yet to integrate the two approaches into ecological modeling for conserving bird habitats under the influence of land use changes. Thus, there is a notable research gap regarding the potential synergies of the ANP and CLUE-s models to evaluate the spatial nonstationarity between bird habitats and land use patterns. In this study, we integrated use of the ANP to identify suitable habitats for birds on farmland with the CLUE-s model to predict future changes in habitat suitability by 2035. Our study aims to evaluate the efficiency of various conservation strategies for bird habitat in farmland ecosystems within the Zhuoshui River basin in Taiwan. We formulated conservation strategies to protect areas of farmland based on their relative suitability as bird habitats. The research findings reveal a significant reduction of farmland habitats coinciding with expanding built-up areas and forests, while designating farmland areas for conservation purposes effectively ensures the maintenance of bird habitats amidst these transformations. Conserving highly suitable farmland habitats (those whose suitability values ranked at or above the 75th percentile) presents the most effective strategy to mitigate the impacts of land use change on bird habitats. Under this strategy, changes in farmland habitats lead to a notable decrease of 16.4 % in low and very low suitability, whereas farmland habitats with moderate and high suitability significantly expand by 879.8 % and 225.9 %, respectively. Farmland habitats characterized by high suitability are concentrated in the western region of the Zhuoshui River basin, accounting for 2289 hectares. These findings underscore the magnitude of habitat loss resulting from land use changes outside conserved areas. Our research emphasizes the importance of implementing conservation strategies for bird habitats, providing policymakers with a framework to manage farmland ecosystems effectively.