Future Burden Research Articles

Forecasting Disease Burden with a Dynamic Transmission Model of Human Papillomavirus and Recurrent Respiratory Papillomatosis in the United States.

Juvenile- and adult-onset recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (JORRP and AORRP) are rare but serious conditions that are caused by oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infections. The proliferation of wart-like growths throughout the respiratory tract can result in medical problems, including death. The current treatment scheme is surgery, though prevention of HPV infection through vaccination is available. A previously developed model for JORRP and AORRP was adapted to the United States using data on disease burden and HPV infection. The model was validated against post-vaccination reductions in disease and used to forecast the future burden of JORRP and AORRP, estimating the impact that HPV vaccination will have on these diseases. Between 2007 (the beginning of HPV vaccination in the US) and 2021, this model estimates that approximately 1393 lives, 22,867 Quality-Adjusted-Life-Years, and over USD 672 million in treatment costs have been saved by HPV vaccination. There is also a substantial reduction in JORRP and AORRP burden, with a 95% reduction in incidence by 2040. Moreover, between 2040 and 2121, the model predicts 3-11 total cases of HPV6/11-related JORRP in the US, and 36-267 total cases of HPV6/11-related AORRP. HPV vaccination in the United States has driven, and will continue to drive, substantial reductions in the public health and economic burden of HPV6/11-related JORRP and AORRP.

Secular trends in incidence and mortality of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in China, 1990-2019, and predictions to 2030: Outlook for the future burden of disease.

The aim of this study was to analyze the trend of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2019, along with assessing the effects of age, period, and cohort, as well as to predict future trends. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 we calculated the estimated annual percentage changes in the incidence and mortality of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to assess the independent effects of these elements. Incidence and mortality until 2030 were predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort approach. During 1990-2019, there was a significant increase in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rate in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Strong effects of birth cohort and period on non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence and mortality were observed. In terms of prediction, future non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence and mortality in China will continue to increase, while the mortality rate will decrease; for women, both the rates are projected to rise, but they will remain lower than men. Currently, the non-Hodgkin's lymphoma burden is high in China, and it is expected to continue increasing in the future. Policymakers need to prioritize addressing the factors contributing to sex differences in disease burden, including variations in environmental exposures and lifestyles among men and women.

Source Attribution of Health Burdens From Ambient PM2.5, O3, and NO2 Exposure for Assessment of South Korean National Emission Control Scenarios by 2050.

We quantify anthropogenic sources of health burdens associated with ambient air pollution exposure in South Korea and forecast future health burdens using domestic emission control scenarios by 2050 provided by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Our health burden estimation framework uses GEOS-Chem simulations, satellite-derived NO2, and ground-based observations of PM2.5, O3, and NO2. We estimate 19,000, 3,300, and 8,500 premature deaths owing to long-term exposure to PM2.5, O3, and NO2, respectively, and 23,000 NO2-associated childhood asthma incidences in 2016. Next, we calculate anthropogenic emission contributions to these four health burdens from each species and grid cell using adjoint sensitivity analysis. Domestic sources account for 56%, 38%, 87%, and 88% of marginal emission contributions to the PM2.5-, O3-, and NO2-associated premature deaths and the NO2-associated childhood asthma incidences, respectively. We project health burdens to 2050 using UNEP domestic emission scenarios (Baseline and Mitigation) and population forecasts from Statistics Korea. Because of population aging alone, there are 41,000, 10,000, and 20,000 more premature deaths associated with PM2.5, O3, and NO2 exposure, respectively, and 9,000 fewer childhood asthma incidences associated with NO2. The Mitigation scenario doubles the NO2-associated health benefits over the Baseline scenario, preventing 24,000 premature deaths and 13,000 childhood asthma incidences by 2050. It also slightly reduces PM2.5- and O3-associated premature deaths by 9.9% and 7.0%, unlike the Baseline scenario where these pollutants increase. Furthermore, we examine foreign emission impacts from nine SSP/RCP-based scenarios, highlighting the need for international cooperation to reduce PM2.5 and O3 pollution.

Differences in cancer rates among adults born between 1920 and 1990 in the USA: an analysis of population-based cancer registry data

Trends in cancer incidence in recent birth cohorts largely reflect changes in exposures during early life and foreshadow the future disease burden. Herein, we examined cancer incidence and mortality trends, by birth cohort, for 34 types of cancer in the USA. In this analysis, we obtained incidence data for 34 types of cancer and mortality data for 25 types of cancer for individuals aged 25-84 years for the period Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2019 from the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries and the US National Center for Health Statistics, respectively. We calculated birth cohort-specific incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and mortality rate ratios (MRRs), adjusted for age and period effects, by nominal birth cohort, separated by 5 year intervals, from 1920 to 1990. We extracted data for 23 654 000 patients diagnosed with 34 types of cancer and 7 348 137 deaths from 25 cancers for the period Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2019. We found that IRRs increased with each successive birth cohort born since approximately 1920 for eight of 34 cancers (pcohort<0·050). Notably, the incidence rate was approximately two-to-three times higher in the 1990 birth cohort than in the 1955 birth cohort for small intestine (IRR 3·56 [95% CI 2·96-4·27]), kidney and renal pelvis (2·92 [2·50-3·42]), and pancreatic (2·61 [2·22-3·07]) cancers in both male and female individuals; and for liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer in female individuals (2·05 [1·23-3·44]). Additionally, the IRRs increased in younger cohorts, after a decline in older birth cohorts, for nine of the remaining cancers (pcohort<0·050): oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer, uterine corpus cancer, colorectal cancer, non-cardia gastric cancer, gallbladder and other biliary cancer, ovarian cancer, testicular cancer, anal cancer in male individuals, and Kaposi sarcoma in male individuals. Across cancer types, the incidence rate in the 1990 birth cohort ranged from 12% (IRR1990 vs 1975 1·12 [95% CI 1·03-1·21] for ovarian cancer) to 169% (IRR1990 vs 1930 2·69 [2·34-3·08] for uterine corpus cancer) higher than the rate in the birth cohort with the lowest incidence rate. The MRRs increased in successively younger birth cohorts alongside IRRs for liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer in female individuals, uterine corpus, gallbladder and other biliary, testicular, and colorectal cancers, while MRRs declined or stabilised in younger birth cohorts for most cancers types. 17 of 34 cancers had an increasing incidence in younger birth cohorts, including nine that previously had declining incidence in older birth cohorts. These findings add to growing evidence of increased cancer risk in younger generations, highlighting the need to identify and tackle underlying risk factors. American Cancer Society.

Projection for dementia burden in China to 2050: a macro-simulation study by scenarios of dementia incidence trends

It is unclear how temporal trends in dementia incidence, alongside fast-changing demography, will influence China's future dementia burden. We developed a Markov model that combines population trends in dementia, mortality, and dementia-related comorbidities, to forecast and decompose the burden of dementia in China to2050. Population-based Chinese ageing cohorts provided input data for a 10-health-state Markov macrosimulation model, IMPACT-China Ageing Model (CAM), to predict sex- and age-specific dementia prevalence among people aged 50+ by year to 2050. We assumed three potential future scenarios representing the range of likely dementia incidence trends: upward (+2.9%), flat (0%) or downward (-1.0%). Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine uncertainty associated with trends in mortality rates and CVD incidence. The projected dementia burden was decomposed into population growth, population ageing, and changing dementia prevalence corresponding to the three incidence trend scenarios. Under the upward trend scenario, the estimated number of people living with dementia is projected to rise to 66.3 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 64.7-68.0 million), accounting for 10.4% of the Chinese population aged 50+ by 2050. This large burden will be lower, 43.9 (95% UI 42.9-45.0) million and 37.5 (95% UI 36.5-38.4) million, if dementia incidence remains constant or decreases. Robustness of the projection is confirmed by sensitivity analyses. Decomposition of the change in projected dementia cases indicates dominate effects of increasing dementia prevalence and population ageing, and a relatively minor contribution from negative population growth. Our findings highlight an impending surge in dementia cases in China in the forthcoming decades if the upward trend in dementia incidence continues. Public health interventions geared towards dementia prevention could play a pivotal role in alleviating this burgeoning disease issue. National Science Foundation of China/UK Economic and Social Research Council.

Current and Future Cost Burden of Myocardial Infarction in Australia: Dynamic Model

Current and Future Cost Burden of Myocardial Infarction in Australia: Dynamic Model

Tracking the epidemiological trends of female breast cancer in Saudi Arabia since 1990 and forecasting future statistics using global burden of disease data, time-series analysis

BackgroundFemale breast cancer stands as the prime type of cancer in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), with a high incidence and mortality rates. This study assessed the burden of female breast cancer in KSA by analyzing and forecasting its incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).MethodsWe retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) about female breast cancer from 1990 to 2021. Time-series analysis used the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast female breast cancer statistics from 2022 to 2026.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, KSA reported 77,513 cases of female breast cancer. The age groups with the highest number of cases are 45–49 years, followed by 40–44 years, 50–54 years, and 35–39 years. The analysis also showed fewer cases in the younger age groups, with the lowest number in the less than 20-year-old age group. From 1990 to 2021, KSA reported 19,440 deaths due to breast cancer, increasing from 201 cases in 1990 to 1,190 cases in 2021. The age-standardized incidence rate/100,000 of breast cancer increased from 15.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) 11.2–21.0) in 1990 to 46.0 (95%CI 34.5–61.5) in 2021. The forecasted incidence rate of female breast cancer will be 46.5 (95%CI 45.8–46.5) in 2022 and 49.6 (95%CI 46.8–52.3) in 2026. The age-standardized death rate per 100,000 Saudi women with breast cancer increased from 6.73 (95%CI 6.73–9.03) in 1990 to 9.77 (95%CI 7.63–13.00) in 2021. The forecasted female breast cancer death rate will slightly decrease to 9.67 (95%CI 9.49–9.84) in 2022 and to 9.26 (95%CI 8.37–10.15) in 2026. DALYs increased from 229.2 (95%CI 165.7–313.6) in 1990 to 346.1 (95%CI 253.9–467.2) in 2021. The forecasted DALYs of female breast cancer will slightly decrease to 343.3 (95%CI 337.2–349.5) in 2022 reaching 332.1 (95%CI 301.2–363.1) in 2026.ConclusionsFemale breast cancer is still a significant public health burden that challenges the health system in KSA, current policies and interventions should be fashioned to alleviate the disease morbidity and mortality and mitigate its future burden.

Mass incarceration as a driver of the tuberculosis epidemic in Latin America and projected impacts of policy alternatives: A mathematical modeling study.

Tuberculosis incidence is increasing in Latin America, where the incarcerated population has nearly quadrupled since 1990. The full impact of incarceration on the tuberculosis epidemic, accounting for effects beyond prisons, has never been quantified. We calibrated dynamic compartmental transmission models to historical and contemporary data from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico, and Peru, which comprise approximately 80% of the region's incarcerated population and tuberculosis burden. Using historical counterfactual scenarios, we estimated the transmission population attributable fraction (tPAF) for incarceration and the excess population-level burden attributable to increasing incarceration prevalence since 1990. We additionally projected the impact of alternative incarceration policies on future population tuberculosis incidence. Population tuberculosis incidence in 2019 was 29.4% (95% UI, 23.9-36.8) higher than expected without the rise in incarceration since 1990, corresponding to 34,393 (95% UI, 28,295-42,579) excess incident cases across countries. The incarceration tPAF in 2019 was 27.2% (95% UI, 20.9-35.8), exceeding estimates for other risk factors like HIV, alcohol use disorder, and undernutrition. Compared to a scenario where incarceration rates remain stable at current levels, a gradual 50% reduction in prison admissions and duration of incarceration by 2034 would reduce population tuberculosis incidence by over 10% in all countries except Mexico. The historical rise in incarceration in Latin America has resulted in a large excess tuberculosis burden that has been under-recognized to-date. International health agencies, ministries of justice, and national tuberculosis programs should collaborate to address this health crisis with comprehensive strategies, including decarceration. National Institutes of Health.

Congenital Rubella Syndrome Does Not Increase with Introduction of Rubella-Containing Vaccine.

Rubella infection is typically mild or asymptomatic except when infection occurs during pregnancy. Infection in early pregnancy can cause miscarriage, stillbirth, or congenital rubella syndrome. Only individuals that are still susceptible to rubella infection during child-bearing age are vulnerable to this burden. Rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) is safe and effective, providing life-long immunity. However, average age-at-infection increases with increasing vaccination coverage, which could potentially lead to increased disease burden if the absolute risk of infection during child-bearing age increases. The dynamics of rubella transmission were explored using EMOD, a software tool for building stochastic, agent-based infection models. Simulations of pre-vaccine, endemic transmission of rubella virus introduced RCV at varying levels of coverage to determine the expected future trajectories of disease burden. Introducing RCV reduces both rubella virus transmission and disease burden for a period of around 15 years. Increased disease burden is only possible more than a decade post-introduction, and only for contexts with persistently high transmission intensity. Low or declining rubella virus transmission intensity is associated with both greater burden without vaccination and greater burden reduction with vaccination. The risk of resurgent burden due to incomplete vaccination only exists for locations with persistently high infectivity, high connectivity, and high fertility. A trade-off between the risk of a small, future burden increase versus a large, immediate burden decrease strongly favors RCV introduction.

What We (Don't) Know about the Infectious Disease Burden Among Youth Experiencing Homelessness in the United States and Canada.

Youth experiencing homelessness (YEH) and sexual and gender minority (SGM) YEH may be at increased risk for infectious diseases due to living arrangements, risk behaviors, and barriers to healthcare access that are dissimilar to those of housed youth and older adults experiencing homelessness. To better understand infectious diseases among YEH populations, we synthesized findings from 12 peer-reviewed articles published between 2012 to 2020 which enumerated YEH or SGM YEH infectious disease burden in locations across the U.S. or Canada. Pathogens presented in the studies were limited to sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and bloodborne infections (BBI). Only three studies enumerated infectious diseases among SGM YEH. There was a dearth of comparison data by housing status (ex., sheltered versus unsheltered youth), SGM identity, or other relevant counterfactual groups in the identified studies. We also introduce three publicly available, national-level surveillance datasets from the U.S. or Canada that quantify certain STIs, BBIs, and tuberculosis among YEH, which may be used for future disease burden assessments. Our review calls for more comprehensive YEH-centered research that includes multimodal data collection and timely disease surveillance to improve estimates of infectious diseases among this vulnerable population.

The burden oflow back pain in adolescents and young adults.

Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability, but data on the burden and trends of low back pain (LBP) in adolescents and young adults (AYAs) are sparse. To assess trends in the burden of LBP among AYAs aged 15-39years at the global, regional and national levels from 1990 to 2019. Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 were used to analyze incidence, prevalence and Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) due to LBP at global, regional, and national levels. Joinpoint regression analysis calculated the average annual percentage changes (AAPC). Then analyse the association between incidence, prevalence and DALYs and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Finally, projections were made until 2030 and calculated in Nordpred. The incidence, prevalence and DALYs rates (95%UI) were 2252.78 (1809.47-2784.79), 5473.43 (4488.62-6528.15) and 627.66 (419.71-866.97) in 2019, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates AAPC (95%CI) were -0.49 (-0.56 to -0.42), -0.58 (-0.65 to -0.51) and -0.57 (-0.64 to -0.5), respectively. Incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates in South Asia, East Asia, High-income North America, Western Europe, and Australasia decreased with SDI. Incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates in Central Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe decreased and then increased with SDI. At the national level, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates are high in the United States and low in India and China. From the 2020 to 2030, most regions is predicted to decline. LBP in AYAs is a major global public problem with a high burden. There are large differences in incidence, prevalence and DALYs across SDIs, regions and countries. there is still a need to focus on LBP in AYAs and tailor interventions to reduce the future burden of this condition.

Future temperature-related mortality in the UK under climate change scenarios: Impact of population ageing and bias-corrected climate projections

BackgroundExposure to heat and cold poses a serious threat to human health. In the UK, hotter summers, milder winters and an ageing population will shift how populations experience temperature-related health burdens. Estimating future burdens can provide insights on the drivers of temperature-related health effects and removing biases in temperature projections is an essential step to generating these estimates, however, the impact of various methods of correction is not well examined. MethodsWe conducted a detailed health impact assessment by estimating mortality attributable to temperature at a baseline period (2007–2018) and in future decades (2030s, 2050s and 2070s). Epidemiological exposure-response relationships were derived for all England regions and UK countries, to quantify cold and heat risk, and temperature thresholds where mortality increases. UK climate projections 2018 (UKCP18)were bias-corrected using three techniques: correcting for mean bias (shift or SH), variability (bias-correction or BC) and extreme values (quantile mapping or QM). These were applied in the health impact assessment, alongside consideration of population ageing and growth to estimate future temperature-related mortality. FindingsIn the absence of adaptation and assuming a high-end emissions scenario (RCP8.5), annual UK temperature-related mortality is projected to increase, with substantial differences in raw vs. calibrated projections for heat-related mortality, but smaller differences for cold-related mortality. The BC approach gave an estimated 29 deaths per 100,000 in the 2070s, compared with 50 per 100,000 using uncorrected future temperatures. We also found population ageing may exert a bigger impact on future mortality totals than the impact from future increases in temperature alone. Estimating future health burdens associated with heat and cold is an important step towards equipping decision-makers to deliver suitable care to the changing population. Correcting inherent biases in temperature projections can improve the accuracy of projected health burdens to support health protection measures and long-term resilience planning.

Clinico-Laboratory Profile and Outcome of Kawasaki Disease in Children in a Tertiary Care Hospital in Kathmandu

Introduction: Kawasaki disease (KD) is one of the most common vasculitis of childhood. It contributes significantly to acquired heart disease in children and results in coronary artery abnormalities including aneurysm in 25% of untreated children. This study aims to retrospectively assess the clinical course, laboratory results, and presenting symptoms of patients with complete and incomplete KD treated at tertiary care hospital in Kathmandu.Method: This retrospective study was conducted in the Department of Pediatrics. Data from January 2020 to December 2020 were retrieved from medical records department of the hospital and analyzed using Microsoft excel.Result: The total number of cases evaluated in our study was 9. The median age at the time of the diagnosis of KD was 24 months (median age for incomplete KD-21 months, complete KD-37 months). Male to female ratio was 1.2:1. The peak season of KD occurrence was Spring (March – May). Mean duration of stay in the hospital was 7 days. All children presented with fever, with an mean fever duration of 7 days at the time of presentation. Fever was present in every case. The most common principal symptom was a polymorphous skin rash, observed in 88% of the cases. Elevated CRP levels (≥3 mg/dl) were noted in all 9 cases. Cardiovascular complications were present in 88% of the patients, with coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) detected in 11%, coronary artery dilation in 22%, and mild pericardial effusion documented in 66% of the cases. Eight patients (88%) received IVIG, all 9 patients (100%) received aspirin, and 2 patients received steroids. There were no fatalities.Conclusion: KD is a common vasculitis in children which do not have significant sex predilection in oppose to most of the studies. Majority of cases occurred in spring season. The most common symptom was polymorphous rash. A high level of suspicion for diagnosing KD is essential, and early treatment is crucial to prevent complications and reduce the future economic burden on families and the nation.

P-011 Maternal gestational methyl donor deficiency affects reproductive development and fertility of mice offspring

Abstract Study question Is maternal methyl donor deficiency during gestation affects offspring’s reproductive health at adulthood? Summary answer Maternal gestational methyl donor deficiency affects reproductive development and fertility of F1 offspring and also leads to increased post implantation loss What is known already Reproductive disorders and their exact mechanisms are scarce in “The developmental origins of health and disease” (DOHaD) hypothesis which well explains the metabolic complications such as obesity, type 2 diabetes and hypertension that may take root during early development. The maternal nutritional environment during early development has important implications on offspring’s health later in life including reproductive health. The gestational period is of critical importance during which major epigenetic reprogramming occurs. The maternal methyl donor deficiency during gestational period may affect this process and epigenetic signatures of developing gametes and the fertility potential Study design, size, duration Pregnant female OCT4-GFP mice, fed on control chow diet (CCD) &amp; 40% methyl-donors (Folate, Methionine &amp; Vitamin B12) deficient diet (MDD) from gestation day (GD) 5 to GD 20. The gonadal development of F1 offsprings was studied on gestation day GD 18, post-natal day (PND) 22 and PND 60. Fertility study was done by mating adult F1 male offspring with adult female mice fed on standard diet Participants/materials, setting, methods Homocysteine levels in dams (F0) at GD18 were estimated by ELISA. Testosterone levels in F1 offsprings at PND 60 were estimated by ELISA. Furthermore, Serum glucose levels in F1 offsprings were measured at PND 60 and PND 75 by glucometer. Testicular histology, quantitative histomorphometry, immunofluorescence and TUNEL assay was performed at PND 60. Main results and the role of chance Fetal weight was reduced at GD13 and GD18 but postnatal body weight at PND 22 and 60 was not significantly affected in MDD group. Teratological defects were observed in pups of 40% MDD group as compared to CDD. Testosterone levels were significantly reduced in F1 offsprings of 40% MDD group. Glucose levels were similar in both the groups at PND 60 but at PND 75 it is significantly higher in case of F1 offsprings of 40% MDD. Maternal serum homocysteine levels and global DNA methylation levels of fetal gonads were affected. Testicular histology was significantly impaired in 40% MDD group at GD18, PND22 and PND60. Quantitative histomorphometry and immunofluorescence study showed the loss of spermatogonia and spermatocytes with significant increase in germ cells sloughing and seminiferous tubules atrophy. Apoptosis is also observed in seminiferous tubules. Copulation index, sperm count and motility was significantly reduced in case of 40% MDD group at adulthood. The F1 offspring of this group were sub-fertile with significant post implantation loss. Limitations, reasons for caution Although mice share ∼90% genome with humans, they may not resemble all aspect of physiology or pathology in humans hence it could limit the findings to extrapolate to humans. Wider implications of the findings The knowledge gained from this work could be helpful in highlighting the need of gestational micronutrient interventions specially methyl donors, which could help improving maternal and child health as well as reducing the future disease burden of reproductive disorders Trial registration number not applicable

Current and future burden of Ross River virus infection attributable to increasing temperature in Australia: a population-based study

Ross River virus (RRV), Australia's most notifiable vector-borne disease transmitted through mosquito bites, has seen increased transmission due to rising temperatures. Quantifying the burden of RRV infection attributable to increasing temperatures (both current and future) is pivotal to inform prevention strategies in the context of climate change. As RRV-related deaths are rare in Australia, we utilised years lived with disability (YLDs) associated with RRV infection data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) Burden of Disease database between 2003 and 2018. We obtained relative risks per 1°C temperature increase in RRV infection from a previous meta-analysis. Exposure distributions for each Köppen-Geiger climate zone were calculated separately and compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution to calculate RRV burden attributable to increasing temperatures during the baseline period (2003-2018), and projected future burdens for the 2030s and 2050s under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), two adaptation scenarios, and different population growth series. During the baseline period (2003-2018), increasing mean temperatures contributed to 35.8 (±0.5) YLDs (19.1%) of the observed RRV burden in Australia. The mean temperature attributable RRV burden varied across climate zones and jurisdictions. Under both RCP scenarios, the projected RRV burden is estimated to increase in the future despite adaptation scenarios. By the 2050s, without adaptation, the RRV burden could reach 45.8 YLDs under RCP4.5 and 51.1 YLDs under RCP8.5. Implementing a 10% adaptation strategy could reduce RRV burden to 41.8 and 46.4 YLDs, respectively. These findings provide scientific evidence for informing policy decisions and guiding resource allocation for mitigating the future RRV burden. The current findings underscore the need to develop location-specific adaptation strategies for climate-sensitive disease control and prevention. Australian Research Council Discovery Program.

Changes in body mass index and three-year incidence of overweight/obesity among urban women aged 30-40 years in Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India: A non-concurrent cohort study.

Although studies often report the prevalence of obesity, community-based studies reporting the incidence of overweight or obesity in India are scarce. Such incidence data are crucial for improving projections about the future burden of obesity. A non-concurrent follow-up study was done in 2015 in urban Vellore, Tamil Nadu, among two groups of women aged 30-40 years, with body mass index (BMI) <25 kg/m2 (normal) and BMI ≥25 kg/m2 (overweight/obese) in 2012, to assess changes in BMI. The sampling frame consisted of 473 women: 209 women with BMI <25 kg/m2, and 264 women with BMI ≥25 kg/m2, who were part of a cross-sectional survey in 2012. A randomly selected list of 370 women (80% of the original cohort) was used to trace the women. Measurements at follow-up included weight, height, dietary and other risk factors. Of 370 women, 170 (45.9%) were followed up at the end of three years, which included 82 with BMI <25 kg/m2 and 88 with BMI >25 kg/m2. The incidence of overweight (BMI ≥25 kg/m2) in three years, was 29.2% (24/82), among women with a normal BMI (<25 kg/m2) in 2012. Among the 88 women who were overweight/obese in 2012, there was no regression to normal BMI within the three years of follow-up. There was an association between the incidence of overweight and the intake of carbohydrates (adjusted odds ratios (AORs): 3, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04 to 8.63) and protein intake (AOR: 20.0, 95% CI:2.5 to 158.3). This study found an incidence of nearly one-third (29.2%) of developing high BMI (≥25.0 kg/m2) in 30-40-year-old urban women from Vellore, implying a rapid increase in overweight and obesity among young women.

Future patterns in burden and incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus in the United States, 2001-2035.

Squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA) incidence has been rising in the United States, particularly among older adults (≥65 years). We estimated the impact of this rise on future burden (through 2035) using age-period-cohort modeling. The SCCA burden (cases/year) is expected to rise, reaching approximately 2700 among men and approximately 7000 among women in 2031-2035 (burden during 2016-2020 among men and women was approximately 2150 and approximately 4600), with most cases 65 years of age or older (61% in men and 70% in women in 2031-2035; from 40% and 46% in 2016-2020). SCCA incidence (per 100 000) is projected to rise among older men aged 65-74, 75-84, and 85 years or older (5.0, 4.9, and 4.3 in 2031-2035 vs 3.7, 3.8, and 3.4 in 2016-2020, respectively) and women (11.2, 12.6, and 8.0 in 2031-2035 vs 8.2, 6.8, and 5.2 in 2016-2020, respectively). The projected rise in SCCA burden among older adults is troubling and highlights the importance of improving early detection and clinical care.

Projected Health and Economic Burden of Comorbid Gout and Chronic Kidney Disease in a Virtual US Population: A Microsimulation Study.

Gout, a common comorbidity of chronic kidney disease (CKD), is associated with high morbidity and healthcare utilization. However, a large proportion of gout remains undermanaged or untreated which may lead to worse patient outcomes and greater healthcare costs. This study estimates the present and future health and economic burden of controlled and uncontrolled gout in a virtual United States (US) CKD population. A validated microsimulation model was used to project the burden of gout in patients with CKD in the USA through 2035. Databases were utilized to build a virtual CKD population of "individuals" with controlled or uncontrolled gout. Modelling assumptions were made on the basis of the literature, which was sparse in some cases. Health and economic outcomes with the current care (baseline) scenario were evaluated, along with potential benefits of urate-lowering intervention scenarios. The prevalence of comorbid gout and CKD in the USA was projected to increase by 29%, from 7.9 million in 2023 to 9.6 million in 2035 in the baseline scenario. Gout flares, tophi, and comorbidity development were also projected to increase markedly through 2035, with the economic burden of gout in the CKD population subsequently increasing from $38.9 billion in 2023 to $47.3 billion in 2035. An increased use of oral urate-lowering therapies in undermanaged patients, and pegloticase use in patients refractory to oral urate-lowering therapies were also project to result in 744,000 and 353,000 fewer uncontrolled gout cases, respectively, by 2035. Marked reductions in complications and costs ensued. This study projected a substantial increase in comorbid gout and CKD. However, improved use of urate-lowering interventions could mitigate this growth and reduce the health and economic burdens of gout.

Geographical variation in dementia prevalence across China: a geospatial analysis

Dementia poses great health and social challenges in China. Dementia prevalence may vary across geographic areas, while comparable estimations on provincial level is lacking. This study aims to estimate dementia prevalence by provinces across China, taking into account risk factors of individual level and potential spatial correlation of provinces. In this study, 17,176 adults aged 50 years or older were included from the fourth wave of the ChinaHealth and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS 2018), covering 28 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities. To improve provincial representativeness, we constructed provincial survey weights based on China 7th census (2020). The prevalence of dementia and 95% Bayesian credible intervals (BCIs) were estimated using a Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) model with spatially varying coefficients of covariates. The weighted prevalence of dementia at provincial level in China in 2018 ranged from 2.62% (95%BCI: 1.70%, 3.91%) to 13.53% (95%BCI: 8.82%, 20.93%). High dementia prevalence was concentrated in North China, with a prominent high-high cluster, while provinces of low prevalence were concentrated on East and South China, characterized by a low-low cluster. Ordered by the median estimation of prevalence, the top 10% of provinces, include Xinjiang, Jilin, and Beijing. Meanwhile, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Guangdong rank among the last. The association between dementia prevalence and drinking, smoking, social isolation, physical inactivity, hearing impairment, hypertension, and diabetes exhibits provincial variation. Our study identifies a geospatial disparity in dementia prevalence and risk factor effects across China's provinces, with high-high and low-low clusters in some northern and southern provinces, respectively. The findings emphasize the need for targeted strategies, such as addressing hypertension and hearing impairment, in specific regions for more effective dementia prevention and treatment. National Science Foundation of China/the Economic and Social Research Council, UK Research and Innovation joint call: Understanding and Addressing Health and Social Challenges for Ageing in the UK and China. UK-China Health And Social Challenges Ageing Project (UKCHASCAP): present and future burden of dementia, and policy responses (grant number 72061137003, ES/T014377/1).

Trends of mortality from epilepsy in the United States, 1979–2021

PurposeThe analysis of long-term trends of mortality from epilepsy has not been conducted, which is crucial for estimating the future burden of epilepsy. We therefore aimed to investigate the long-term trends of mortality from epilepsy in the United States from 1979 to 2021. MethodsThe cause-of-death and demographic data were from the National Center for Health Statistics (1979–2021) and population estimates were from the US Census Bureau. We used the joinpoint regression model to analyze secular trends in the mortality of epilepsy spanning from 1979 to 2021. Age-adjusted mortality from epilepsy was assessed based on the year 2000 U.S. population data, stratified by age, sex, and race. ResultsThe age-adjusted mortality from epilepsy increased from 0.78 per 100,000 population in 1979 to 1.01 per 100,000 population in 2021, with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 0.58% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.45% - 0.72%). The overall age-adjusted mortality of epilepsy had been on the rise between 2011 and 2021. The mortality rate generally increases with age. The mortality of epilepsy was higher in the Afro-American people and men. The mortality of epilepsy in both sexes declined first and then increased, with AAPC 1.02% (95% CI: 0.88%, 1.23%) in women and 0.10% (95% CI: -0.002%, 0.21%) in men. Mortality in all races including White, Afro-American people, and other races individuals fell first and then rose. The AAPC of mortality in White, other races, and Afro-American people were 0.89% (95% CI: 0.79%, 1.02%), -0.87% (95% CI: -1.84%, 0.88%), and -0.31% (95% CI: -0.48%, -0.13%), respectively. ConclusionAlthough the mortality rate from epilepsy has experienced a period of decline, it is worth noting that the last decade has seen a rapid increase. A comprehensive assessment of long-term trends in mortality from epilepsy holds significance for healthcare prioritization.