Projected Health and Economic Burden of Comorbid Gout and Chronic Kidney Disease in a Virtual US Population: A Microsimulation Study.

Abstract

Gout, a common comorbidity of chronic kidney disease (CKD), is associated with high morbidity and healthcare utilization. However, a large proportion of gout remains undermanaged or untreated which may lead to worse patient outcomes and greater healthcare costs. This study estimates the present and future health and economic burden of controlled and uncontrolled gout in a virtual United States (US) CKD population. A validated microsimulation model was used to project the burden of gout in patients with CKD in the USA through 2035. Databases were utilized to build a virtual CKD population of "individuals" with controlled or uncontrolled gout. Modelling assumptions were made on the basis of the literature, which was sparse in some cases. Health and economic outcomes with the current care (baseline) scenario were evaluated, along with potential benefits of urate-lowering intervention scenarios. The prevalence of comorbid gout and CKD in the USA was projected to increase by 29%, from 7.9 million in 2023 to 9.6 million in 2035 in the baseline scenario. Gout flares, tophi, and comorbidity development were also projected to increase markedly through 2035, with the economic burden of gout in the CKD population subsequently increasing from $38.9 billion in 2023 to $47.3 billion in 2035. An increased use of oral urate-lowering therapies in undermanaged patients, and pegloticase use in patients refractory to oral urate-lowering therapies were also project to result in 744,000 and 353,000 fewer uncontrolled gout cases, respectively, by 2035. Marked reductions in complications and costs ensued. This study projected a substantial increase in comorbid gout and CKD. However, improved use of urate-lowering interventions could mitigate this growth and reduce the health and economic burdens of gout.